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SDDEUTSCHLAND

Risk

Expenditure

Asset Management and Cost Saving Maintenance Strategy based on Risk-Informed Decision Making
.

TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH Cost effective, reliable, and safe through TV gAte and ROI

Our World is changing


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Costs must be decreased Increasing responsibility Adapted availability needed Increased flexibility needed Worldwide competition ...........

SOMEHOW RISK-INFORMED

Knowledge Based

More or Less TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH PRESCRIPTIVE

The Others are doing it


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Understanding of RISK
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Risk = Probability of Failure (PoF) x Consequence of Failure (CoF)

Whats really new?


Integral Approach new, traceable assessment criteria risk assessment requires multi-disciplinary team all type of equipment considered under one hat more distinctive regarding the identification of damage/deterioration mechanism to address optimized inspection techniques remnant life related (for predictable mechanism) confidence related systematic introduction of CoF distinction between SHE and Cost/Reliability CoF
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PoF

CoF
SHE-related Costs-related
TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH

Related Guidelines and Documents


SDDEUTSCHLAND

ASME Risk Based Inspection Vol. 1 General Document Vol. 3 Fossil Fuel Fired Electric Power Generating Systems EPRI Risk Based In-Service Inspection Evaluation Procedure WOG Application of Risk Based Methods for Piping In-Service Inspection API (American Petroleum Institute) API 579 Fitness for Service API RP 580 Risk Based Inspection (qualitative) API RP 581 Risk Based Inspection (qualitative/quantitative)

Development of an European Guideline for Risk Based ISI/IST and Maintenance:

Risk TV Based In-Service Inspection and Maintenance Procedures for European Industries Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH
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Plant Specific Data Generic Data

Inspection Reports Operating Window Medium / Hazards Damage/Deterioration Mechanism SDDEUTSCHLAND Reliability Data ....

Data Mining

Expert Panel

Ranking

Risk-Matrix

Engineering Judgement Semi-Quantitative Analysis Cause-Consequence A. System Simulation ....

Regulatory Requirements
ISI/IST Scope, Locations, Method, and Frequency Monitoring Design modifications Spare Parts Operation ....

Optimization

Safety and Economic related Optimization

Realization

TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH

Planning and Coordination

Nr 1 2 3 7 8 13 17 23 27 31 35 40 44 45

Vorgangsname Projektleitung Marktverantwortung Projektvorlauf Kick-off-Meeting TP1: Sichtung / Met

fte

2. Hlfte 1. Hlfte 2. Hlfte 1. Hlfte 2. Hlfte 1. Hlfte 1011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Kauer

Schmitt,Schrder,S
Projektteam

Information / Kontro TP2: Vernetzung / E TP3: Datenbasis Information / Kontro TP4: Mitarbeiter TP5: Vermarktung Information / Kontro Abschluss Projektnachlauf
12/23

Scaffolding Insulation Inspections Servicing ....


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TV-Software based Procedure


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Representation of the contribution to risk of the subcomponents of the component 01P002: PoFi * CoFi
TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH
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Inspection and Maintenance Planning


SDDEUTSCHLAND

Risk-informed decision making using the risk matrix as central element for the long term strategy and day to day work planning
Economic Risk Ranking Diagram

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Probability of Failure (PoF)

2 11 15 86 82

2 6

2 4 5 6 8

15 19 31 31

I17 I
18 17

II I2
1 0 2

I: Run to Failure Corrective Maintenance Aim at zero expenditure II: ALARP As Low as Reasonably Practicable via Periodical and Condition Based Maintenance corresponding to risk Principle of expenditure minimization III: Unacceptable Urgent measures like Change of Design, and/or Operation, Repair etc. Principle of Risk Mitigation
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TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH Consequence of Failure (CoF)

Risk-Orientied Master Plan


SDDEUTSCHLAND

Explicit measures are planned on the basis of the risk identified the information regarding risk driving components, subcomponents and damage/deterioration mechanisms the information regarding acting damage/deterioration mechanisms, remnant life and the confidence level achieved, through which adapted and adequate measures can be selected the overall confidence level by considering resources, spare part situation, .....
TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH
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Detailed Planning
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predictable f(t)

Damage / Deterioration Mechanism

non-predictable

Calculate Remnant Useful Life Confidence Assessment

Monitoring possible?

Condition Monitoring

Influence Monitoring

Determine Interval, Method, Scope, and Place f (Risk, Remnant Useful Life, Confidence)

Not possible

Determine Interval, Method, Scope, and Place f (Risk, Confidence) Confidence Assessment

Confidence Assessment

Reduction of PoF
TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH

Reduction of Pof

No PoF Reduction possible


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Example 1: Shut-down postponement of a refinery


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Discussion with the authority regarding the general possibility to extend the prescribed interval and about the method going to be used Assessment of 464 Subcomponents Risk Ranking Result: - Extreme High: 0 % - Very High: 7% - High: 20 % - Medium: 33 % - Low: 40 %

Extension more or less no problem for most of the equipment At the end there were 25 pieces of equipment for which it was TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH simply not possible to extend the interval in the first place
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Example 1: Shut-down postponement


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For those 25 we developed a detailed procedure how to replace the internal by non-intrusive inspections (formalistic speaking the non-intrusive is replacing the internal inspection) The result was that this is possible for additionally 15 pieces of equipment

Result:
10 pieces of equipment (out of 464) remaining to be internally inspected, repaired, or replaced at the originally scheduled inspection time

Big Shut Down could be postponed TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH (Savings > 8 Mio EUR)

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Example 2: Economic Strategy (Combined Cycle)


SDDEUTSCHLAND
45 40 35 30
exhaust gas

25
water steam cycle

Failures

20 15 10 5 0

heat recovery steam generator

gas turbine

air intake

fuel gas

electric power

82,00% 84,26% 80,00%


Bypass 1 Gas- line 1 Steam- generator 1 Plant Control Steam- line Circuit breaker

517,36 84,52% 509,99

510

78,75%

79,67%

78,00%
Feedwater system

84,74 % 80,13%

NC F

505 500 495 490 485

76,00% 74,00%

Condensat system Steam- generator 2

Cooling system

Transformers

Gas- line 2 Bypass 2

Concept 1

Concept 2

Concept 3

TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH

The Decision for Concept 1 resulted in saving 40% of capital investment

average Power [ MW ]
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steam turbine

generator

generator

Fehler pro Historie Systemausflle

Main Components
86,00% 84,00%

AF

Pmittel

525

521,01 520 515

Optimization targets in ROI


SDDEUTSCHLAND

Identification (ranking) of critical systems and components Identification of possible damage / deterioration mechanisms Suitable inspection and maintenance methods Determination of scope, location, and intervals Economic balance Documentation and traceability Adjusted requirements for specifications, quality, certification,... (Risk Oriented Design, Risk Oriented Quality), Insurance Risk, .....
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TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH

Summary
SDDEUTSCHLAND

; Cost Optimization
Appropriate balance between costs and benefits

; Cost Concentration
Prioritizing on relevant and critical systems and components

; Cost Traceability
Systematic decision making on the basis of traceable measures API, ASME, RIMAP, ... national standards
TV Sddeutschland Bau und Betrieb GmbH
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Risk

; Code Compliance

Expenditure