Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | August 28, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | August 28, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Open High

Indian Rupee touched a lifetime low of 68.75 in todays trade. GfK German Consumer Climate fell to 6.9-mark in current month. UKs CBI Realized Sales increased to 27-mark in August. European equities are trading on a negative note today on the back of tensions and war like situation between US and Syria. Asian markets ended on a weak note and US stock futures are trading on a flat note. GfK German Consumer Climate fell to 6.9-mark in August as against a rise of 7-level in July. Italian Retail Sales fell around 0.2 percent in June with respect to rise of 0.1 percent a month earlier. UKs Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Realized Sales increased to 27-mark in August from earlier rise of 17-level in July. Indian Rupee depreciated by more than 3 percent today and touched a lifetime low of 68.75 on the back of heavy month end dollar demand from oil companies and importers. Further, outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt coupled with worries over the Current Account Deficit (CAD) acted as a negative factor for the currency. However, selling of dollars from exporters and Reserve bank of India (RBI) at 68.75-levels couldnt provide respite to fall in the currency. Spot gold prices gained around 0.5 percent today on the back of rise in SPDR gold holdings. However, sharp upside in prices was capped as a result of weak global market sentiments coupled with stronger DX. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. Taking cues from upside in gold prices, Spot silver prices rose around 1.5 percent today. However, sharp rise in prices was cushioned as a result of downside in base metals complex, strength in the DX along with weak market sentiments. On the domestic bourses, depreciation in the Rupee was supportive. The base metals group was trading on a negative note today on the back of stronger DX coupled with weak markets. However sharp decline was cushioned due to favorable economic data from the Euro Zone and UK as well as marginal decline in inventories. LME Copper prices slipped around 0.6 percent as a result of strength in the DX. Positive economic data from the Euro Zone and UK prevented further downfall. Depreciation in the Rupee supported a 0.5 percent gain in prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices increased around 0.5 percent today on the back of supply concerns in the Middle East due to military war issues between the US and Syria. However, sharp gains were capped due to expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories and strength in the DX. In the Indian markets, crude oil prices rose by more than 2 percent mainly due to depreciation in the Rupee The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to rise by 0.2 million barrels for the week ending on 23rd August 2013.

as at 4.30 pm 28 August 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5233.45 17851.44 13285.03 1862.51 16586.43

5317.70 18101.84 13392.57 1885.35 16729.93

5118.85 17448.71 13188.14 1861.56 16503.98

5285.00 17996.15 13338.46 1884.52 16503.98

-0.05 0.16 -1.51 -0.07 -0.06

Source: Reuters

Kospi FTSE

as at 4.30 pm 28 August 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

81.17 1.3391 66.90

81.46 1.3397 68.75

81.135 1.3342 66.90

81.445 1.3349 68.12

0.30 -0.32 2.75

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 28 August 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Oct13 MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Oct 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Sep 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Aug13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Aug13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Aug13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Aug13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1416.24 1417.30 33920.00 24.45 0.24985 57500 109.22 115.30 7377 7313.75 494.80 1975.00 131.95 2224 151.35 14478 973.60 1885.00 125.85

1433.31 1428.00 34622.0 25.08 0.24985 59580 112.24 117.34 7784 7352.50 512.70 1986.00 136.90 2236 155.30 14500 1004.80 1894.00 130.00

1413.04 1415.10 33834.0 24.43 0.24925 57500 109.11 114.81 7377 7255.00 494.10 1959.00 130.60 2210 149.20 14209 928.40 1875.50 124.10

1422.41 1423.70 34194.00 24.69 0.24925 58352 109.58 115.23 7506 7264.00 497.00 1970.25 132.25 2216 150.90 14238 969.10 1877.50 125.15

0.45 0.22 1.42 0.90 1.12 1.85 0.52 0.76 2.05 -0.62 0.52 -0.29 0.88 -0.55 0.94 -1.30 0.22 -0.49 0.97

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | August 28, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, precious metals and crude oil prices are expected to trade higher on the back of upward trend that is established since morning trade. Recovery in SPDR gold holdings will support an upside in gold prices. Crude oil prices will trade on a positive note on account of tensions in Syria, which are creating supply concerns from the Middle East region. We expect base metals in international markets to trade on a mixed note on the back of weak market sentiments. While, on the other hand forecast for increase in US pending home sales data will support an upside in prices. In the Indian markets, Rupee has depreciated sharply in todays trade and commodity prices will get support from the same.

Technical Outook for evening session 28 August 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Oct'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Sep13 Nymex Crude Oil Oct13 Natural Gas Aug13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc Aug13 Lead Aug13 Aluminum Aug13 Nickel Aug13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

33175 1399 56200 24.05 7400 108 237 7200 478 127.3 146 121.4 928

33715 1412 57290 24.4 7478 109 241 7240 490.5 130 149 123.9 948

34230 1424.2 58410 24.73 7542 109.91 245.4 7260 497.3 132.85 151.25 125.35 969.4

34600 1435 58750 25.13 7650 111.5 251 7350 506.5 135 153.5 129 990

35010 1445 60050 25.3 7787 113.5 256 7380 518 137 156 132 1006

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

GfK German Consumer Climate M3 Money Supply y/y CBI Realized Sales BOE Gov Carney Speaks Pending Home Sales m/m Crude Oil Inventories

Euro Euro UK UK US US

11:30am 1:30pm 3:30pm 5:15pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

6.9 2.2% 27 -

7.1 2.0% 20 0.2% 0.2M

7.0 2.3% 17 -0.4% -1.4M

Medium Medium Medium High High Medium