Farmers Interest It can be in the farmers interest to restrict the expression of a trait to a specific phase in the development of the

plants. T-GURTs would enable a producer to restrict expression of a trait at will. Beyond that farmers may have limited direct interests in GURT-protected seeds. They may, however, benefit from the increased private investments in research when this leads to better varieties for their conditions. When GURT protected seed contains valuable characteristics they may take the GURT aspect for granted. CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF GURT Since GURT is still in the development phase, actual effects cannot be determined. The potential effects can however be analysed when it is assumed that fool proof GURT-protected varieties will be developed, which is likely to be technically feasible anywhere between 2005 and 2010. Effects on Breeding The biological protection that GURT offers will create novel commercial opportunities, especially in self-fertilising crops that are currently under-invested in. The breeding effort will however be directed towards commercial seed markets, i.e., to the higher-intensity farming systems. Currently, less endowed farmers have access to plant materials from the formal sector (public and private) through so-called lateral spread. Poorer farmers may obtain some modern variety seed from neighbours and relatives that they may further multiply when the variety proves useful, either in a pure stand or when introduced in their diverse landraces. Supporting such lateral spread is a very effective means to spread the advances of breeding to resourcepoor farmers and to remote areas. It has been official policy in many countries during the Green Revolution, and it is a main objective in modern

participatory breeding and participatory variety selection programmes (Witcombe, 2001; Sperling & Ashby, 2000). The widespread use of GURT in breeding is likely to increase the technology gap between the commercial farmers and those in less benign conditions. Breeding for the latter groups will have to be done by the public sector; modern varieties will not be available further adaptation to local conditions, either by farmers themselves or as part of participatory breeding initiatives. Also international public initiatives to support breeding for the less endowed may face problems to access new technologies and characteristics (e.g., disease resistances). Institutes like IRRI can access new biotechnologies for their rice research free-of-charge or at preferential conditions. When rice becomes a very commercial seed crop, however, they will be regarded a competitor by the commercial breeders. When GURT is commercialised by the large multinational companies, the increased returns from seed sales may be used primarily to match the shareholder value that the same companies obtain in their pharmaceutics branches. In such case the increased research investment may be considerably less that envisaged and the farmers interests may be limited accordingly. Such strategy is likely only when competition can be effectively excluded.