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UK House Prices Situation

by Eduardo Petazze
The UK Mix-adjusted House Price Index grew 9.13% Y/Y in Apr14, from +7.34% Y/Y in Mar14
In April 2014 the gross lending secured on dwellings grew by 35.1% Y/Y (+8.49% M/M)
Except for changes that could alter the interest yield curve, by 2014 /15 a boom in prices is expected.
If the new regulations do not substantially reduce the rate of increase of housing, the BOE will need to adjust its policy
interest rates, affecting the growth projected for the entire economy.
If the BoE interest rate will move "sooner rather than later" (say at the end of 2014 / first quarter of 2015), it is possible
that the upward trend in housing prices slows, as the evolution of consensus Member of the Monetary Policy Committee
According to the ONS in April 2014 house prices increased by 9.9% Y/Y (+2.0% M/M), up from 8.0% Y/Y in Mar14
Link: pdf, 26 pages
The following summary includes the estimate issued by Nationwide, and our own projections.
Nationwide House Price Indices - 1993Q1=100
DCLG House Prices
Avg price
NSA index
Y/Y SA index
M/M Q/Q
SA
M/M
NSA
Y/Y
Jan-13
162,245
323.66
0.01%
328.45 0.53% 0.22%
236,280
0.89% 237,460
3.64%
Feb-13
162,638
324.44
-0.05%
329.15 0.24% 0.37%
236,153 -0.05% 233,339
3.43%
Mar-13
164,630
328.42
0.80%
330.06 0.12% 0.59%
237,588
0.61% 234,899
4.27%
Apr-13
165,586
330.33
0.88%
329.82 -0.00% 0.62%
238,365
0.33% 238,157
4.21%
May-13
167,912
334.97
1.14%
331.35 0.43% 0.68%
239,452
0.46% 238,756
4.48%
Jun-13
168,941
337.02
1.93%
332.78 0.32% 0.64%
240,811
0.57% 241,832
4.64%
Jul-13
170,825
340.78
3.92%
336.42 0.88% 1.16%
241,860
0.44% 245,190
4.86%
Aug-13
170,514
340.16
3.51%
339.01 0.65% 1.71%
243,184
0.55% 246,397
5.29%
Sep-13
172,127
343.37
4.98%
342.45 1.01% 2.41%
243,539
0.15% 245,130
5.40%
Oct-13
173,678
346.47
5.80%
346.32 1.13% 2.72%
247,312
1.55% 246,963
7.09%
Nov-13
174,566
348.24
6.54%
348.92 0.75% 2.92%
248,768
0.59% 248,083
7.31%
Dec-13
175,826
350.75
8.36%
354.00 1.46% 3.08%
251,356
1.04% 249,792
7.33%
Jan-14
176,491
352.08
8.78%
357.05 0.86% 3.13%
251,495
0.06% 251,935
6.44%
Feb-14
177,846
354.78
9.35%
359.66 0.73% 3.18%
256,314
1.92% 253,099
8.54%
Mar-14
180,264
359.61
9.50%
361.46 0.50% 2.76%
255,035 -0.50% 252,019
7.34%
Apr-14
183,577
366.22 10.86%
365.70 1.17% 2.53%
260,127
2.00% 260,059
9.13%
May-14
186,512
372.07 11.08%
368.15 0.67% 2.30%
257,588 -0.98% 256,366
7.57%
Jun-14
188,038
375.12 11.30%
370.37 0.60% 2.42%
258,007
0.16% 258,763
7.14%
Jul-14
189,803
378.64 11.11%
373.72 0.90% 2.34%
260,139
0.83% 263,690
7.56%
Aug-14
189,474
377.98 11.12%
376.73 0.81% 2.33%
263,382
1.25% 266,844
8.31%
Sep-14
191,034
381.09 10.98%
379.85 0.83% 2.36%
264,692
0.50% 266,846
8.69%
Oct-14
192,249
383.52 10.69%
383.52 0.97% 2.51%
266,886
0.83% 266,428
7.91%
Nov-14
193,208
385.43 10.68%
386.37 0.74% 2.58%
268,850
0.74% 268,256
8.07%
Dec-14
193,860
386.73 10.26%
390.68 1.11% 2.68%
271,826
1.11% 270,056
8.14%
Own Estimate
Last data
Nationwide House Price Indices
DCLG House Prices
Annual
Avg price
NSA index
Y/Y
SA index
Y/Y
SA
Y/Y
NSA
Y/Y
2006
166,124
331.40
6.41%
331.40
6.41%
192,668
4.72% 192,648
4.72%
2007
181,341
361.76
9.16%
361.71
9.15%
213,817 10.98% 213,807 10.98%
2008
169,135
337.41
-6.73%
337.42
-6.72%
211,387 -1.14% 211,388
-1.13%
2009
156,611
312.42
-7.41%
312.39
-7.42%
194,213 -8.12% 194,235
-8.11%
2010
165,722
330.60
5.82%
330.57
5.82%
208,617
7.42% 208,629
7.41%
2011
165,361
329.88
-0.22%
329.87
-0.21%
215,039
3.08% 215,071
3.09%
2012
163,959
327.08
-0.85%
327.10
-0.84%
230,269
7.08% 230,358
7.11%
2013
169,124
337.38
3.15%
337.39
3.15%
242,056
5.12% 242,167
5.13%
2014
186,863
372.77 10.49%
372.77
10.49%
261,195
7.91% 261,197
7.86%
2015
205,454
409.86
9.95%
409.86
9.95%
284,614
8.97% 284,619
8.97%
Own Estimate

Other UK indicators and data


Prices
Halifax House Price Index
Mortgage affordability improves across the UK
Halifax House Price Index - May +8.7% Y/Y (+3.9% M/M) pdf, 3 pages
Rising tide lifts seaside house prices pdf, 4 pages
House Price Index April +8.5% Y/Y pdf, 3 pages
Generation Rent 2014: Will rental rungs replace the property ladder?
March 2014 pdf, 3 pages
February 2014 pdf, 3 pages
Fixed mortgage rates at historic low but remortgage activity remains static
Nationwide House Price Index
Annual house price growth edges up in May pdf, 3 pages
Annual house price growth now into double digits - pdf, 3 pages
Nationwide reports highest annual house price rise since 2007 (The Guardian)
House price growth moderates in March pdf, 3 pages
February 2014 pdf, 3 pages
Nationwide House Price Index adjusted for inflation

240000
220000

Real House Prices


Source: Nationwide Building Society

C olumn D

C olumn C

Base : 2014 Q1
Trend from 1975 Q1 to present
Trend = c2.7% per annum

200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000

1978
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981
1982
1983
1984
1984
1985
1986
1987
1987
1988
1989
1990
1990
1991
1992
1993
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996
1997
1998
1999
1999
2000
2001
2002
2002
2003
2004
2005
2005
2006
2007
2008
2008
2009
2010
2011
2011
2012
2013
2014

Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1

40000

'Column C' Real House Prices adjusted for retail prices = This uses the Office for National Statistics Retail
Price Index (RPI) to convert nominal prices to current prices For example, a typical property in 2005 Q1 would,
on average, have cost 152,790 at the time. The buy this amount of 'retail goods' today would require 202,066
'Column D' Trend in Real HPI = A smooth trend has been fitted to the real house price series. This trend has
been fitted from 1975 Q1 to the latest quarter and is an exponential curve.
Hometrack - Monthly National Housing Survey
Hometrack housing survey indicates start of a slowdown in May house price growth
House prices up 0.6% in April
March 2014 pdf, 7 pages
February 2014 pdf, 7 pages
Rightmove
June 2014 - New seller asking prices at virtual standstill, +0.1% M/M or +272 pdf, 10 pages
May 2014 - Asking prices up by +8.9% Y/Y (+3.6% M/M) the largest ever May rise pdf, 10 pages
April 2014 +7.3%Y/Y (+2.6% M/M) of increase in asking prices highest since Oct07 pdf, 11 pages
March 2014 - The national average asking price at 255,962 (+1.6% M/M; +6.8% Y/Y) pdf, 10 pages
February 2014 - Prices up by 3.3% M/M (+6.9% Y/Y) despite 18% jump in new seller numbers
2014: Prices forecast pdf, 10 pages

Regulation - FCA
Countdown to new mortgage lending rules
Guide: Getting a mortgage pdf, 2 pages
Mortgage Market Review (MMR)
Policy Statement
PS12/16 - Mortgage Market Review pdf, 312 pages
PS-14/3 - Detailed rules for the FCA regime for consumer credit pdf, 646 pages

Financing
BoE
Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at 375 bn
Also see: Bank of England policymakers hold off on rate rises again
Money and Credit
In April 2014 the gross lending secured on dwellings grew by 35.1% Y/Y (+8.49% M/M)
Annual - Secured Gross Lending
Outstanding avg net secured lending
(in sterling
millions)
NSA
Y/Y
SA
Y/Y
NSA
Y/Y
SA
Y/Y
2005
288,280 -1.02% 287,866 -0.75%
922,084 10.94%
922,094 10.95%
2006
345,355 19.80% 345,726 20.10% 1,023,216 10.97% 1,023,257 10.97%
2007
362,758
5.04% 362,536
4.86% 1,136,496 11.07% 1,136,540 11.07%
2008
253,980 -29.99% 256,085 -29.36% 1,211,552 6.60% 1,211,609 6.61%
2009
143,825 -43.37% 143,682 -43.89% 1,229,059 1.45% 1,229,093 1.44%
2010
135,342 -5.90% 134,850 -6.15% 1,238,729 0.79% 1,238,770 0.79%
2011
141,290
4.39% 141,225
4.73% 1,241,611 0.23% 1,241,630 0.23%
2012
145,315
2.85% 145,507
3.03% 1,259,609 1.45% 1,259,589 1.45%
2013
176,207 21.26% 175,244 20.44% 1,270,443 0.86% 1,270,410 0.86%
2014
226,523 28.56% 226,523 29.26% 1,281,970 0.91% 1,281,970 0.91%
Own estimate
Monthly Secured Gross Lending
Outstanding net secured lending
N transactions
(in sterling
millions)
NSA
Y/Y
SA
Q/Q
NSA
Y/Y
SA
Q/Q
NSA
Y/Y
Jan-13
11,624
6.63% 12,653 -0.04% 1,268,094 1.56% 1,267,162 0.00% 86,417
Feb-13
10,621
0.33% 12,765
0.89% 1,267,436 1.50% 1,267,728 0.04% 82,031
Mar-13
11,560 -9.97% 12,887
0.96% 1,267,063 1.35% 1,267,708 -0.00% 91,505
Apr-13
12,219 20.17% 13,246
2.79% 1,266,386 1.23% 1,268,325 0.05% 94,953
May-13
14,793 15.69% 14,167
6.95% 1,267,320 1.20% 1,268,720 0.03% 112,575
Jun-13
14,915 22.84% 14,534
2.59% 1,268,759 0.42% 1,269,392 0.05% 108,711
Jul-13
16,677 27.43% 14,716
1.25% 1,269,838 0.40% 1,269,979 0.05% 122,503
Aug-13
16,440 24.73% 15,061
2.34% 1,271,085 0.40% 1,270,488 0.04% 120,145
Sep-13
16,165 38.07% 15,713
4.33% 1,272,070 0.42% 1,271,477 0.08% 113,382
Oct-13
17,561 34.39% 15,752
0.25% 1,274,393 0.55% 1,273,090 0.13% 124,548
Nov-13
16,940 27.92% 16,246
3.14% 1,275,941 0.63% 1,274,639 0.12% 120,710
Dec-13
16,692 43.82% 17,504
7.74% 1,276,931 0.70% 1,276,208 0.12% 109,142
Jan-14
16,040 37.99% 17,158 -1.98% 1,278,379 0.81% 1,277,345 0.09% 104,987 21.49%
Feb-14
14,675 38.17% 17,637
2.79% 1,278,558 0.88% 1,278,819 0.12% 103,651 26.36%
Mar-14
15,338 32.68% 16,958 -3.85% 1,280,147 1.03% 1,281,060 0.18% 103,201 12.78%
Apr-14
16,508 35.10% 18,397
8.49% 1,280,996 1.15% 1,282,774 0.13% 107,404 13.11%
May-14
18,852 27.44% 18,858
2.51% 1,280,370 1.03% 1,282,754 -0.00% 123,743 9.92%
Jun-14
19,849 33.08% 18,537 -1.70% 1,281,217 0.98% 1,282,252 -0.04% 125,032 15.01%
Jul-14
21,133 26.72% 18,696
0.86% 1,281,932 0.95% 1,282,076 -0.01% 133,524 9.00%
Aug-14
20,709 25.96% 19,035
1.81% 1,282,728 0.92% 1,282,149 0.01% 130,371 8.51%
Sep-14
20,416 26.30% 19,395
1.89% 1,283,432 0.89% 1,282,401 0.02% 124,173 9.52%
Oct-14
21,554 22.74% 19,986
3.05% 1,284,379 0.78% 1,283,173 0.06% 132,295 6.22%
Nov-14
21,048 24.25% 20,476
2.45% 1,285,420 0.74% 1,283,953 0.06% 129,704 7.45%
Dec-14
20,402 22.23% 21,390
4.46% 1,286,078 0.72% 1,284,888 0.07% 116,675 6.90%
Last data
Own estimate
BBA
May 2014 - High street banks pdf, 4 pages
Mortgage approval volumes have weakened further in May. The slowdown, possibly due to the new
mortgage rules, appears to have impacted more on re-mortgaging and other secured loans rather than
house purchase
Amounts outstanding

Jan 2013

at end-period
mn
777,357.1

Y/Y
1.27%

Lending secured on dwellings


Non-seasonally adjusted
Net changes in
Gross loans during period
amounts outstanding
mn
mn
Y/Y
-57.3
7,542.0
5.74%

Repayment of Capital

Average value of loan for House


Purchase nsa

mn
7,628.5

Y/Y
11.85%

145,300

Y/Y
-2.74%

Feb 2013

776,343.9

1.17%

-982.3

6,519.6

-3.94%

7,619.3

5.19%

151,100

-1.44%

Mar 2013

780,637.4

1.62%

-1,152.0

7,062.5

-15.41%

7,908.5

2.97%

152,800

-1.74%

Apr 2013

779,540.7

1.55%

-1,071.9

7,311.2

13.99%

8,310.8

17.13%

156,200

-2.19%

May 2013

779,308.6

1.46%

-206.5

9,195.7

13.63%

9,538.9

19.90%

159,100

-2.21%

Jun 2013

779,541.7

0.52%

258.3

9,186.5

20.96%

8,860.7

16.84%

160,100

-3.90%

Jul 2013

779,944.1

0.49%

437.2

10,359.4

30.69%

10,270.7

29.85%

158,400

-1.68%

Aug 2013

780,350.6

0.50%

442.4

10,309.0

27.39%

9,927.1

24.78%

156,800

-1.32%

Sep 2013

779,940.9

0.41%

-389.8

10,104.4

36.59%

10,512.8

51.13%

151,700

-2.51%

Oct 2013

780,649.5

0.48%

786.8

11,181.4

36.93%

10,510.9

31.19%

156,400

1.10%

Nov 2013

781,554.7

0.52%

982.4

11,241.7

32.35%

10,296.1

29.82%

158,500

2.39%

Dec 2013

781,529.8

0.53%

58.3

10,765.9

44.26%

10,743.5

41.26%

162,900

7.17%

Jan 2014

782,884.1

0.71%

1,388.3

10,613.3

40.72%

9,341.3

22.45%

154,500

6.33%

Feb 2014

783,221.3

0.89%

392.8

9,621.7

47.58%

9,281.1

21.81%

157,400

4.17%

Mar 2014

783,798.6

0.40%

609.1

9,916.3

40.41%

9,294.3

17.52%

163,600

7.07%

Apr 2014

784,822.0

0.68%

1,033.9

10,886.7

48.90%

9,983.5

20.13%

164,500

5.31%

May 2014

786,406.7

0.91%

1,584.7

11,096.4

20.67%

9,545.6

0.07%

163,500

2.77%

April 2014 figures for the high street banks pdf, 4 pages
CML
First-time buyers took out 6,600 more loans in April than a year ago
Lenders have met the 2020 interest-only mortgage commitment
Help to Buy effect is muted on basis of numbers, says CML
First-time buyer lending in London up on same period last year by 29%
House purchase lending in Scotland up 23% in first quarter compared to same period last year
First-time buyers in Northern Ireland up 33% in quarter one compared to same period last year
First-time buyers in Wales up 30% in first quarter compared to same period last year
Gross mortgage lending continues to grow in April
Interest-only contact strategy is working as intended, CML reports
Gross mortgage lending increases 37% year-on-year

Also see:
Knight Frank / Markit UK House Price Sentiment Index
UK inflation drops to 4 year low, but rising house prices confuse the policy picture
Construction sector booms, Bank of England raises prospect of 2014 rate hike
Markit / CIPS UK Construction PMI
EuroStat
House Price Index (HPI) 4Q2013 pdf, 3 pages (1Q2014 will be released on July 10, 2014)
Quarterly data (Database)

IMF - Global Housing Watch


Link to the new website
From IMF web page
Launch Press Release
New Global Housing Watch Throws Spotlight on Booms and Busts
Housing Markets, Financial Stability and the Economy
Era of Benign Neglect of House Price Booms is Over

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