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RISK

What is RAM?
RAM stands for Reliability, Availability and Maintainability. It is a methodology used to predict asset performance for a given configuration in terms of reliability, maintainability and availability. Our products go beyond traditional RAM analysis by adding capabilities related to operations tailored to the Oil and Gas industry which provides as result utilisation and production efficiency. DNV Software Advanced RAM tools can also be used as Process Reliability Modelling, Plant Wide Performance Modelling or simply RAM Modelling. DNV Software Advanced RAM tools can be separated into two groups: - Maros, the choice for Upstream and Midstream analysis - Taro, the choice for Downstream and Logistics analysis The analysis is performed by modelling the asset while considering all of the factors that can potentially impact on production. An overview of the typical aspects covered in an advanced RAM analysis for oil and gas assets is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1 - Advanced RAM analysis overview

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SIMULATION
The most powerful approach to this type of analysis is to use simulation techniques. This means applying a structured process to mathematically evaluate the behaviour of a system. A common simulation approach for reliability modelling is to use an Event-Driven algorithm based on Monte Carlo simulation to create life-cycle scenarios of the system under investigation accounting for its reliability, maintainability, operating policies and cost/revenue data. By simulating a large number of life-cycles, conclusions can be drawn about the characteristics of the configuration and forecasts made about what the expected efficiency will be. The main benefit of using simulation is that it is well suited for highly complex scenarios, which most oil and gas assets typically are. For real life scenarios of this type, analytical solutions become close to impossible. Simulation also captures the dynamics of a system by allowing highly specialised events to be modelled or system reconfigurations to take place over time. The results allow the weak links to be exposed quickly and thus aid in identification of ways to improve the reliability.

WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS OF MAROS AND TARO?

Maros and Taro allow you to predict production efficiency of a process, and provide a foundation for the optimisation of the process. By optimising production efficiency and minimising the costs associated with production (maintenance, manning, material etc.), the most profitable process configuration can be identified and selected.

INCREASING THE PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY

These are several ways in which Maros and Taro analyses can help to increase production efficiency: By identifying areas where changes to equipment/unit configuration, procedures, training, operation etc. can reduce the likelihood of production downtime. By allowing you to make adjustments to the process e.g. by introducing redundancy in the process where it makes a larger impact. Looking at equipment criticality allows the bottlenecks of the process to be identified. This also avoids inefficient expenditure on redundancy where it is not effective. By making it easy to perform sensitivity studies to compare the impact of modifications to the process with a base case. By assessing how and when to boost production and what impact it has on production efficiency. By allowing you to optimise production by using the right flaring philosophies. By determining the production impact of feed storage and utility systems. By allowing you to perform spare equipment analysis to minimise downtime due to not having spares when needed. By assessing alternative maintenance strategies to minimise downtime due to mobilization constraints.

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Figure 2 - Production Efficiency forecasted by a Maros simulation

MINIMISING COSTS
These are several ways in which Maros and Taro analyses can help to minimise costs By minimising the contract losses due to production failures. Allowing for production compensation means that contracts can be satisfied even though there are production losses, which in turn will prevent associated costs. By avoiding excessive attention to areas that are non-critical, and instead focus on areas where improvements and modifications will make a larger impact. By performing the analysis at an early stage, the study will allow for enhancement suggestions that would have been much more expensive if carried out at a later stage. By allowing you to optimise the spare stock level. By allowing you to optimise maintenance resources.

OTHER BENEFITS FROM RUNNING MAROS AND TARO INCLUDE

By drawing up the full process in Reliability Block Diagrams and replaying lifecycle simulations, an increased understanding of the process and the potential failures will be gained. It can be used to demonstrate compliance with performance targets where applicable. It allows assessment of economic viability of projects/products. It allows for evaluation and comparison of different approaches for replacement, rehabilitation/life extension or disposal of aging facilities.

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ASSET LIFECYCLE
It is feasible to perform an advanced RAM study at all stages in the life of an asset. For example; performed early in design process, Maros and Taro allow the assessment of competing development options such as FPSO vs. subsea development vs. platform, etc. Such an assessment can rapidly feed into a net present value assessment of each option. Once the development option has been selected, further cost benefit analysis can be performed e.g. examining the benefit of additional installed capacity, or the penalties of reduced redundancy. During the operational phase the impact of alternative operational philosophies or maintenance strategies may be examined. For gas gathering and producing networks, the level of risk associated with alternative gas sales agreements and nomination levels can be quantified.

Figure 3 - Phases of Asset Lifecycle

QUESTIONS ANSWERED
Typical questions asked that Maros and Taro can help you answer are: How does equipment/unit reliability impact production? What happens if I improve equipment reliability? What happens if equipment performance is worse than expected? Should I spare equipment to increase reliability? What is the impact of preventive, corrective and opportune maintenance strategies? What size storage tanks should I have? What is the impact of unit over-design (catch-up) margins? What is the optimum unit configuration in order to maximise production/availability? Will it be possible to meet the customers demand for products? What is the supply efficiency to each customer? What is the impact of adding new production facilities and decommissioning existing facilities? What will the impact of ageing facilities/wells be on achieved performance?

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SUCCESSFUL APPLICATIONS
These are some examples of asset types where Maros and Taro have successfully been used in the past: New upstream production assets (offshore and onshore) Mature upstream production assets (offshore and onshore) Normally Unattended Installations FPSOs Oil refineries Petrochemical plants Subsea operations Onshore Oil & Gas Processing Terminals Gas and LNG supply chains Power stations

Figure 4 - Photos of typical objects of interest in Advanced RAM analyses