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Automobile Sector
Eyeing the festival season
Automobile manufacturers continued reporting poor sales as the demand environment remains extremely weak due to the slowdown in economic activity and increasing fuel prices which have dampened consumer sentiments. The slowdown is now prominent across all the segments (ex. tractors) which has resulted in a sharp fall in volumes across the commercial vehicle (CV), passenger vehicle (PV) and two-wheeler (2W) segments. However, the tractor segment continued to grow led by better monsoon although at a rate lower than that registered in 1QFY2014. Among the stocks in our coverage universe, only Maruti Suzuki recorded a better-than-expected sales performance which was driven by a strong growth in exports. Moving into the festival season, we expect a relatively better performance in September and October as 2W and PV manufacturers would build-up inventory in anticipation of the festival demand. We however expect CV sales to continue reporting subdued performance. Tata Motors (TTMT) continued its poor sales performance as the commercial (CV) and passenger vehicle (PV) volumes maintained the downward trajectory following weak consumer demand and slowdown in industrial activity. Total volumes posted a significant decline of 30.9% yoy (3.6% mom) with the CV and PV segments registering a fall of 24% (7.3% mom) and 45.5% yoy (up 9.2% mom) respectively. Ashok Leyland (AL) witnessed a steep decline of 18.3% mom in its total sales, led by the weak demand environment amidst slowdown in economic activity. While MHCV sales posted a decline of 21.1% mom; Dost sales too declined by 11.3% mom during the month. Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) registered a better-than-expected volume growth of 4.8% mom driven by a strong 38.6% mom growth in exports. Domestic volumes though grew modestly by 1.2% mom and were led by a strong 25.4% mom growth in the compact segment. On a yoy basis, total sales registered a growth of 61.2%, primarily due to the low base of last year. The companys sales in August 2012 were adversely impacted due to labor problems at the Manesar plant which had led to temporary shutdown in production. Mahindra & Mahindra (MM) continued reporting weak sales due to poor performance of the automotive segment. The performance has been impacted by demand slowdown, rising competition and also due to increase in excise duty, which has affected the company's PV models the most. Total volumes declined sharply by 11.9% yoy (6.3% mom) as the automotive segment fell by a significant 17.3% yoy (up 2.2% mom). The tractor sales too came in lower-than-expected, down 23.3% mom as domestic sales declined by 23.8% mom during the month. Two-wheelers and three-wheelers: Two-wheeler sales continued to remain weak; however Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) and TVS Motor (TVSL) posted a growth during the month mainly due to the low base of last year. Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) recorded an in-line volume growth of 11% mom led by a 12.9% mom growth in motorcycle sales primarily driven by exports. Total exports surged sharply by 31% mom during the month. The company intends to launch new variants of the Discover around the festival season to boost sales. HMCL registered lower-than-expected sales (down 5.7% mom, but up 3.6% yoy) as volumes continue to be impacted by slowdown in motorcycle demand and higher competition from Honda. TVSL posted an in-line performance with total sales posting a growth of 1.2% mom (flat yoy) led by a strong growth in the motorcycle and three wheeler segments. Exports too continued its strong momentum during the month.
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Tata Motors
Sales continue to remain weak across the CV and PV segments led by weak demand
Tata Motors continued its poor sales performance as the commercial (CV) and passenger vehicle (PV) volumes maintained the downward trajectory following weak consumer demand and slowdown in industrial activity. Total volumes posted a significant decline of 30.9% yoy (3.6% mom) to 49,611 units with CV and PV segments registering a fall of 24% (7.3% mom) and 45.5% yoy (up 9.2% mom) respectively. Within the CV space, MHCV and LCV segments witnessed a decline of 40.1% and 16.5% yoy respectively. In the PV segment, UV and PC sales witnessed a decline of 35.9% and 48% yoy respectively. Exports however posted a growth of 11.9% yoy (14.4% mom) during the month.
Aug-12 15,515 33,230 48,745 4,707 18,374 23,081 71,826 67,453 4,373
chg yoy (40.1) (16.5) (24.0) (35.9) (48.0) (45.5) (30.9) (33.7) 11.9
Jul-13 11,025 28,921 39,946 2,352 9,170 11,522 51,468 47,191 4,277
chg mom (15.7) (4.1) (7.3) 28.3 4.3 9.2 (3.6) (5.2) 14.4
YTD FY14 53,319 140,156 193,475 12,586 48,190 60,776 254,251 233,645 20,606
YTD FY13 66,307 155,655 221,962 21,050 91,079 112,129 334,091 311,783 22,308
% yoy (19.6) (10.0) (12.8) (40.2) (47.1) (45.8) (23.9) (25.1) (7.6)
Feb-12
Dec-11
Dec-12
Feb-13
Feb-12
Aug-11
Aug-12
Aug-13
Dec-11
Dec-12
Feb-13
Jun-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Oct-12
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-11
Jun-12
Aug-12
Jun-13
September 3, 2013
Aug-13
Apr-12
Oct-11
Oct-12
Apr-13
Ashok Leyland
Weak sales continued due to slowdown in economic activity
Ashok Leyland (AL) witnessed a steep decline of 18.3% mom in its total sales to 7,139 units due to a weak demand environment amidst slowdown in economic activity. While MHCV sales posted a decline of 21.1% mom; Dost sales too posted a decline of 11.3% mom during the month. On a yoy basis too, total sales declined by 24.3% with MHCV and Dost sales registering a decline of 25.1% and 22.4% yoy respectively.
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-12
Dec-11
Aug-11
Aug-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Maruti Suzuki
MSIL posted better-than-expected sales driven by exports
Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) registered a better-than-expected volume growth of 4.8% mom to 87,323 units driven by a strong 38.6% mom growth in exports. The domestic volumes though grew modestly by 1.2% mom and were led by a strong 25.4% mom growth in the compact segment. On a yoy basis, total sales registered a growth of 61.2% yoy primarily due to the low base of last year. The companys sales in August 2012 were impacted due to labor problems at the Manesar plant which had led to a temporary shutdown in production. The companys UV sales have slowed down considerably over the last few months due to increasing competition from Renault and Ford and also due to the slowdown in demand for diesel vehicles post the recent hike in fuel prices.
September 3, 2013
Aug-13
Apr-12
Apr-13
Aug-12 22,062 6,059 3,085 447 31,653 6,883 11,593 50,129 4,025 54,154
chg yoy 45.1 187.3 344.8 (22.1) 100.6 (33.7) (31.4) 51.6 180.9 61.2
Jul-13 33,587 13,882 15,249 322 63,040 4,562 7,543 75,145 8,154 83,299
chg mom (4.7) 25.4 (10.0) 8.1 0.7 0.0 5.5 1.2 38.6 4.8
YTD FY14 163,274 90,969 78,231 2,088 334,562 23,747 38,200 396,509 40,547 437,056
YTD FY13 123,811 88,745 58,371 2,126 23 273,076 26,259 34,953 334,288 43,842 378,130
% yoy 31.9 2.5 34.0 (1.8) 22.5 (9.6) 9.3 18.6 (7.5) 15.6
32,019 17,409 13,723 348 63,499 4,563 7,956 76,018 11,305 87,323
Dec-11
Aug-11
Aug-12
Dec-12
Mahindra & Mahindra registered lower-than-expected sales due to the poor performance of the automotive segment, which has been impacted due to demand slowdown, rising competition and also due to increase in excise duty which has affected the company's products the most. Total volumes declined sharply by 11.9% yoy (6.3% mom) to 52,055 units as the automotive segment fell by a significant 17.3% yoy (up 2.2% mom). The automotive segment registered a weak performance across the sub-segments with PV sales (down 27.5% yoy) being the most impacted. The four-wheeler pickup and three-wheeler sales too witnessed a decline of 3.8% and 14.2% yoy respectively. Automotive exports also declined by 9% yoy during the month. Meanwhile, tractor sales came in lower-than-expected at 14,158 units, down 23.3% mom as domestic sales declined by 23.8% mom during the month. On a yoy basis though, tractor sales grew by 7% yoy led by a 9.3% yoy growth in domestic sales driven by good monsoon and improved prospects for the kharif crop.
September 3, 2013
Aug-13
Apr-12
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-12
Jun-13
Aug-12 21,831 14,267 6,004 724 42,826 3,010 45,836 12,394 840 13,234 59,070
chg yoy (27.5) (3.8) (14.2) (34.9) (17.9) (9.0) (17.3) 9.3 (26.8) 7.0 (11.9)
Jul-13 15,530 13,740 4,490 730 34,490 2,606 37,096 17,771 698 18,469 55,565
chg mom 1.9 (0.2) 14.7 (35.5) 1.9 5.1 2.2 (23.8) (11.9) (23.3) (6.3)
YTD FY14 91,576 70,481 22,006 3,800 187,863 10,115 197,978 102,704 4,500 107,204 305,182
YTD FY13 105,342 68,366 24,968 5,133 203,809 15,111 218,920 84,450 4,886 89,336 308,256
% yoy (13.1) 3.1 (11.9) (26.0) (7.8) (33.1) (9.6) 21.6 (7.9) 20.0 (1.0)
15,821 13,718 5,149 471 35,159 2,738 37,897 13,543 615 14,158 52,055
Volume (LHS)
(%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0)
Feb-12
Dec-11
Dec-12
Feb-13
Jun-12
Aug-11
Aug-12
Jun-13
Aug-13
Apr-12
Oct-11
Oct-12
Apr-13
Bajaj Auto
BJAUT reported poor volumes on account of weakness in the domestic motorcycle segment
Bajaj Auto recorded an in-line volume growth of 11% mom to 312,188 units led by a 12.9% mom growth in motorcycle sales primarily driven by exports. Total exports surged sharply by 31% mom during the month. Three-wheeler (3W) sales however declined 2.6% mom as they continued to be impacted due to the slowdown in Egypt. Domestic sales too declined by 1.9% mom due to weak demand for motorcycles. On a yoy basis, total sales posted a decline of 9.5% yoy following a 21.2% decline in domestic volumes. Exports however registered a growth of 9.6% yoy. The company has launched new 3Ws in an attempt to progressively replace the entire portfolio over the next 3-4 months. Further, the company also intends to launch new variants of the Discover around the festival season.
September 3, 2013
Volume (LHS)
Volume (LHS)
Hero MotoCorp
HMCL registered lower-than-expected sales due to weak domestic demand
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) registered lower-than-expected sales as volumes continued to be impacted by slowdown in motorcycle demand and higher competition from Honda. Its overall sales declined 5.7% mom to 459,996 units. However, on a yoy basis, sales grew by 3.6% primarily due to the base effect. On the exports front, the company has forayed into newer geographies like Guatemala, Kenya, El Salvador, Honduras and Ivory Coast. The company is also targeting to enter countries within Latin America and Africa. Going ahead, the company expects better monsoons to revive growth during the festival season.
September 3, 2013
Dec-11
Dec-12
Apr-12
Aug-11
Aug-12
Apr-13
TVS Motor
TVSL registered in-line volumes driven by 3Ws and exports
TVS Motor (TVSL) reported in-line performance with total sales posting a 1.2% mom (flat yoy) growth to 155,532 units. The performance was led by a strong growth in the motorcycle and three-wheeler segments which recorded a growth of 5.9% mom (14.2% yoy) and 0.8% mom (80.8% yoy) respectively. The exports performance too remained strong registering a growth of 4.9% mom (52.9% yoy) driven by robust two-wheeler and 3W sales. The Management expects export volumes to touch a monthly run-rate of 28,00030,000 units within the next six months. The scooter and moped segments however, continued their subdued performance led by weak demand and increasing competition. While scooter sales declined by 1.1% mom (4.5% yoy); moped sales witnessed a 2.3% mom (13.9% yoy) decline during the month.
September 3, 2013
Aug-13
Oct-11
Feb-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-12
Jun-13
Volume (LHS)
Volume (LHS)
(%) 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0)
Dec-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Jun-13
Aug-13
Apr-12
Oct-12
Feb-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Outlook
While the near term environment continues to remain challenging for the automotive sector, we believe the long-term structural growth drivers for the industry such as GDP growth (leading to increasing affluence of rural and urban consumers), favorable demographics, low penetration levels, entry of global players and easy availability of finance will remain intact. We continue to prefer stocks that have strong fundamentals, high exposure to rural and export markets and command superior pricing power. We maintain our positive stance on Ashok Leyland, Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors.
Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as on September 2, 2013; *Consolidated financials
September 3, 2013
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September 3, 2013
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September 3, 2013
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