Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 25

Otra forma de ver la geologia

Yacimientos y $$$$ Como hacemos como geologos para capitalizar de la fiebre de commodities?

Size Matters
14% of total number of deposits
carry

32%

of contained metal
and account for

67%

of total NPV created

Size is a useful but imperfect proxy for project economics For any NPV threshold there is usually a minimum size threshold below this size it is unlikely that a deposit will achieve this threshold
2

Environments Of Au Formation

Deposit Economics Are Defined By Geological Environment

Size Distribution Per Deposit Type


Intermediate Sulphidation Porphyry Au Under 1 M oz Au Eq 1 - 2 M oz Au Eq 2 - 3 M oz Au Eq > 3 M oz Au Eq

Sediment Hosted

High Sulphidation

Intrusive Related

Low Sulphidation

Porphiry Cu (Au) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

More on size
Average Au # Deposits > Average Au Content (M oz) of 10 M oz Au Content (All) Giant Deposits 25 22 3 13 33 3 27 27 9 9 28 4 3 37 19 7 13 2 10 25 4

Orogenic Instrusive Related Porphyry High Sulphidation LS Alkalic LS Epithermal Carlin

A spectrum of entry points for new opportunities


High risk

Exploration

Zombie projects

low risk

Projects do not exist


Low entry cost

Operating businesses
High entry cost

The Tax Myth Taxes in Latin America are not low


Tax Ranges
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Canada USA Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Dominican Republic Guatemala Guyana Honduras Mexico Panama Peru Suriname

Maximum tax burden Minimum

Ernst & Young Global Tax Guide Royalties factored in assuming 100% margins

Suriname

Peru

Mineral Policy as perceived by Investors

Panama

Mexico

Honduras

Guyana

Mineral Policy Index

Guatemala Dominican Republic Ecuador

Colombia

Chile

Brazil

Bolivia

Argentina

USA

Canada

90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Frasier Institute 2012

% Maximum Points

Latin America How is the region evolving compared to North America?


15 years ago Lower Capex and operating costs Lower taxes Shorter time to permit mines & exploration programs Region was adopting free market practices low risk of goverment interference

Today Escalation of Capex and Opex due to dollar weakness Taxes are higher Permitting times increasing dramatically Several countries have adopted policies that constraint private property of natural resources

So how competitive is the region really?

Not very competitive


Permitting becoming an issue Taxes are not lower Taking into account efficiencies and exchange rates costs are quickly rising even though labor in theory is cheaper

That explains where the exploration dollars are going

So far

Peru has higher taxes than even canada and the US Peru has times to permit of projects that begin to approach North America Social issues and local opposition to mining scares investments

Perus Production is dropping


Yearly Au Production
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Canada

Peru

Mexico

Brazil

Chile

USA

M oz Au

2,007 2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011

USGS country data 2012

Peru has a low resource / reserve base


Known ounces in all projects
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
USA

M oz Au

Resources Reserves

Peru

Canada

Mexico

Brazil

Chile

Data extracted from Intierra

Peru has aging mines


Gold contained in producing assets
250 200 150 100 50
Peru Canada Mexico Brazil Chile
Resource tail Reserves

M oz Au

0
USA

Data extracted from Intierra

With a poor pipeline of new resource projects


Gold ounces in non producing assets
600 500 400 300 200 100 0
USA

M oz Au

Resource tail Reserves

Peru

Canada

Mexico

Brazil

Chile

Data extracted from Intierra

Limited number of early stage projects


Number of active projects per country
7

Thousands of projects

6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Early Stage Projects Resource Projects

Peru

Canada

Mexico

Brazil

Chile

USA

Data extracted from Intierra

Unless the situation is reversed

Gold production and hence taxes will drop steadily in the next decade We have not analyzed other metals but the situation may well be similar

What is causing the drop in discovery in Peru?


The easier to discover projects have been found Increasing delays in permitting exploration programs due to increased regulation and social unrest Uncertainty over permitting of new mines somewhat mitigated but unless exploration jumpstarts at a faster pace the situation will be hard to revert Due to regulation and social unrest an increasing % of exploration dollars does not go to the ground hence exacerbating the issue

Other jurisdictions attract more companies


Active companies per country
2500

# companies

2000 1500 1000 500


Peru Canada Mexico Brazil Chile
Data extracted from Intierra

0
USA

Lower Metal Production but

Market Capitalization versus Metal Production


350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Billion USD$

Value of metals Market capitalization

Peru

Canada

Data extracted from Intierra

The difference

The capital markets related to metal mining in Canada probably represent a tax revenue even greater than mining itself A lot of good paying white collar jobs are created into the mining related finance sector

What has Canada done to achieve this?


Well regulated yet open capital markets A private equity culture used to invest in risky ventures A pool of enetepreneurial minded geologists involved in forming juniors Flow through financing: The exemption of taxes of funds that are invested in Juniors for exploration in Canada Provincial funding of exploration projects (1 dollar for every dollar invested in Quebec for example)

Can Peru become the Canada of Latin America?

YES, but

Need to deregulate exploration and speed up permits Need to provide tax incentives to local private equity funds and individuals to fund risky investments in exploration Provide a mechanism similar to flow through financing to companies primaryly listed in the Lima exchange Allow AFPs to invest in risky ventures locally on companies primarily listed in the Lima exchange MILA is an important key to provide investors in Chile and Colombia an oportunity to invest in mining Improve the level of Peruvian geologists via better funding to geology programs in state universities Foster a culture of risk taking and angel financing to allow for the creation of local exploration companies that eventually will also explore outside Peru creating more wealth for Peruvian investors