VIRGINIAS

SCHOOLS IN DANGER:

The Implications of Ken Cuccinellis Platform for Virginias Education System,

Overall and in Highlighted Localities

September 2013

Virginias Schools in Danger:

The Implications of Ken Cuccinellis Platform for Virginias Education System,

Overall and in Highlighted Localities

I. Executive Summary

Having a strong pre-K-12 system is absolutely essential for the economic
competitiveness of the Commonwealth of Virginia. In the global economy,
Virginia competes with almost 200 other nations and 49 other states, many of
which are making significant, long-term investments in their systems of public
education.

Clearly, this is not the time to deny our pre-K-12 system the resources it needs to
educate Virginias children. Virginia cannot afford to disinvest as our competitors
are doing the opposite. Unfortunately, Ken Cuccinelli has proposed a tax plan
and an education plan that could do just that:

Cuccinellis tax scheme, proposed in May of 2013, could strip at least $1.4
billion annually from the General Fund, which is a crucial source of
operating funds for local school divisions.

Cuccinellis education plan, proposed in August 2013, could further starve
our public institutions of already sparse resources. He proposes amending
the Virginia Constitution to allow tax dollars currently being spent on
public education to flow out of our communities public schools and into
private and religious schools.

These draconian cuts in education funding could have a significant impact on the
quality and quantity of public education available to Virginia children. Worse,
they could force local school divisions to fire thousands of teachers, depriving
Virginias students of talented, experienced educators and hurting the ability of
an entire generation of Virginians to compete on the global stage.







2

II. Implications for Direct Aid to Localities

The burden of paying for Cuccinellis tax cuts could be felt by every locality in the
Commonwealth:

If the Cuccinelli tax scheme were enacted, and he fails to find offsetting revenues,
the public education system could face an annual shortfall of hundreds of millions
of dollars. Thirty percent of the General Fund is spent on Direct Aid to elementary
and secondary schools. Therefore, at minimum, 30% of the $1.4 billion would fall
on education. However, education aid will likely have to pay more than its fair
share, as certain General Fund allocations are almost impossible to cut, such as
Medicaid spending (almost 21% of the General Fund). These payments, while
they come out of the General Fund, are required to match federal payments and
provide healthcare to citizens in need.

With this in mind, a conservative prediction for the total Cuccinelli cut to

$525 million.

education investment is

See Appendix for how these cuts would fall on individual divisions.







3

III. Firing Virginias Teachers

Faced with these catastrophic shortfalls, local governments could have to make
significant cutbacks. The approximate cost, on average, is $64,635/year to retain
a teacher in a school division. Therefore, school divisions across Virginia could be
forced to fire over 8,000 teachers to make up the shortfall.

1 school bus = 30 teachers

Thats a convoy of 266 school buses, full of talented

educators, leaving the Commonwealth for other states or other
professions.








4

IV. Arlington

Arlington County schools could face a cut of over $4.6 million, meaning the
division could lose 71.72 teachers. Since the student-teacher ration is 15.34:1,
1,100.24 Arlington students could lose their teachers. These students would fill
37 regular sized school buses:

1 school bus = 30 students

V. Bristol

Bristols schools could face budget cuts of over $1.3 million, meaning the division
could have to lay off 20.79 teachers. Since the student-teacher ratio in Bristol is
15.18:1, 315.64 students could lose their teachers. These students would fill 11
school buses:

1 school bus = 30 students

VI. Charlottesville

Charlottesvilles schools could face budget cuts of over $1.4 million. To cover the
shortfall, Charlottesville would have to fire 22.51 teachers. Since the student-
teacher ration in Charlottesville is 14.38:1, 323.71 students could lose their
teachers. These students would fill 11 regular school buses:

1 school buses = 30 students

VII. Chesterfield

Chesterfields school division could face a shortfall of over $25.3 million. This
shortfall could force Chesterfield to lay off 392.18 teachers. Since the student-
teacher ratio in Chesterfield is 19.09:1, 7,486.68 students could lose their
teachers. These students would fill 250 school buses:

1 school bus = 30 students

VIII. Danville

Danvilles schools could face a budget shortfall of over $3.4 million. To cover the
shortfall, Danville could have to lay off 53.84 teachers. Since the student-teacher
ratio in Danville is 14.52:1, 781.79 students could lose their teachers. These
students would fill 27 school buses:

1 school bus = 30 students

IX. Fairfax County

Fairfax County schools could face budget cuts over $50.3 million. To cover this
shortfall, the county could have to fire 778.33 teachers. Since the student-
teacher ratio in Fairfax is 19.63:1, 15,278.7 students could lose their teachers.
These students would fill 510 school buses:

1 school bus=30 students

10

X. Fredericksburg

Fredericksburgs schools could face budget cuts of over $900,000. To cover this
shortfall, Fredericksburg could be forced to fire 14.69 teachers. Since the
student-teacher ratio in Fredericksburg is 17.83:1, 261.85 students could lose
their teachers. These students would fill 9 school buses:

1 school bus = 30 students

11

XI. Harrisonburg

Harrisonburgs schools could face a budget cuts over $2.4 million. To cover this
shortfall, Harrisonburg could be forced to fire 37.24 teachers. Since the student-
teacher ratio in Harrisonburg is 13.61:1, 506.84 students could lose their
teachers. These students would fill 17 school buses:

1 school bus = 30 students

12

XII. Henrico

Henricos schools could face budget cuts of over $20.9 million. To cover this
shortfall, the county could be forced to fire 323.39 teachers. Since the student-
teacher ratio in Henrico is 18.38:1, 5,943.86 students could lose their teachers.
These students would fill 199 school buses:

1 school bus = 30 students

13

XIII. Lynchburg

Lynchburgs schools could face budget cuts over $4.1 million. To cover this
shortfall, Lynchburg could have to fire 63.74 teachers. Since the student-teacher
ratio in Lynchburg is 15.66:1, 998.81 students could lose their teachers. These
students would fill 34 school buses:

1 school bus = 30 students

14

XIV. Norfolk

Norfolks schools could face budget cuts over $16.6 million. To cover this
shortfall, Norfolk could have to fire 256.96 teachers. Since the student-teacher
ratio in Norfolk is 15.67:1, 4,026.56 students could lose their teachers. These
students could fill 135 school buses:

1 school bus = 30 students

15

XV. City of Richmond

The City of Richmonds schools could face budget cuts over $10.6 million. To
cover this shortfall, the city could have to fire 164.99 teachers. Since the student-
teacher ratio in Richmond is 17.52:1, 2,890.69 students could lose their teachers.
These students would fill 97 school buses:

1 school bus = 30 students

16

XVI. Roanoke County

Roanoke County schools could face budget cuts over $6.1 million. To cover this
shortfall, the county could be forced to fire 95.28 teachers. Since the student-
teacher ratio in Roanoke is 16.07:1, 1,531.1 students could lose their teachers.
These students would fill 52 schools buses:

1 school bus = 30 students

17

XVII. Virginia Beach

Virginia Beach schools could face budget cuts over $29 million. To cover this
shortfall, Virginia Beach could be forced to fire 449.41 teachers. Since the
student-teacher ratio in Virginia Beach is 18:1, 8,089.34 students could lose their
teachers. These students would fill 270 school buses:

1 school bus = 30 students

18

XVIII. Winchester

Winchester schools could face budget cuts over $1.7 million. To cover this
shortfall, Winchester could have to fire 27.18 teachers. Since the student-teacher
ratio in Winchester is 15.58:1, 423.43 students could lose their teachers. These
students could fill 15 school buses:

1 school bus = 30 students

19


APPENDIX

Locality
Accomack
Albemarle
Alexandria
Alleghany
Amelia
Amherst
Appomattox
Arlington
Augusta
Bath
Bedford City
Bedford County
Bland
Botetourt
Bristol
Brunswick
Buchanan
Buckingham
Buena Vista
Campbell
Caroline
Carroll
Charles City
Charlotte
Charlottesville
Chesapeake
Chesterfield
Clarke
Colonial
Heights
Covington
Craig
Culpeper
Cumberland
Danville
Dickenson
Dinwiddie

Education aid Teachers laid

cut
off
$2,452,781.22
37.95
$3,913,198.99
60.54
$2,985,072.49
46.18
$1,466,408.40
22.69
$865,152.31
13.39
$2,244,283.50
34.72
$1,186,482.91
18.36
$4,635,874.63
71.72
$4,554,487.21
70.46
$153,778.43
2.38
$368,233.44
5.70
$3,909,071.08
60.48
$452,643.41
7.00
$2,266,951.72
35.07
$1,343,978.14
20.79
$1,265,047.10
19.57
$1,674,244.13
25.90
$1,101,572.00
17.04
$796,252.81
12.32
$3,931,592.82
60.83
$2,093,925.88
32.40
$2,263,971.98
35.03
$390,403.37
6.04
$1,227,622.04
18.99
$1,455,006.60
22.51
$18,274,427.63
282.73
$25,348,447.06
392.18
$777,039.48
12.02
$1,186,497.76
$456,641.60
$366,087.32
$3,569,992.69
$735,397.87
$3,480,110.24
$1,319,661.36
$2,298,249.06

18.36
7.06
5.66
55.23
11.38
53.84
20.42
35.56

20

Student
teacher
Students
ratio
displaced
15.45
586.30
16.63
1006.83
15.59
720.00
15.31
347.35
18.63
249.37
15.40
534.73
15.56
285.63
15.34
1100.24
15.39
1084.45
15.24
36.26
15.81
90.07
16.60
1003.95
15.30
107.15
19.05
668.14
15.18
315.64
15.50
303.37
15.02
389.06
15.24
259.73
15.23
187.62
16.93
1029.81
18.28
592.20
15.94
558.33
15.59
94.17
16.65
316.24
14.38
323.71
18.72
5292.76
19.09
7486.68
16.78
201.73
18.33
13.79
14.84
16.50
13.92
14.52
19.20
20.24

336.48
97.43
84.05
911.35
158.38
781.79
392.01
719.68

Locality
Emporia
Essex
Fairfax City
Fairfax County
Falls Church
Fauquier
Floyd
Fluvanna
Franklin City
Franklin County
Frederick
Fredericksburg
Galax
Giles
Gloucester
Goochland
Grayson
Greene
Greensville
Halifax
Hampton
Hanover
Harrisonburg
Henrico
Henry
Highland
Hopewell
Isle Of Wight
James City
King and
Queen
King George
King William
Lancaster
Lee
Lexington
Loudoun
Louisa
Lunenburg

Education aid Teachers laid

cut
off
$600,275.72
9.29
$775,490.40
12.00
$671,662.49
10.39
$50,307,630.62
778.33
$461,999.57
7.15
$4,086,440.81
63.22
$1,006,879.25
15.58
$1,680,893.28
26.01
$727,954.00
11.26
$3,321,874.32
51.39
$5,919,753.01
91.59
$949,228.05
14.69
$682,802.75
10.56
$1,292,814.31
20.00
$2,392,107.47
37.01
$550,077.96
8.51
$1,010,238.67
15.63
$1,397,597.90
21.62
$865,638.76
13.39
$3,080,663.54
47.66
$11,154,026.52
172.57
$7,283,253.29
112.68
$2,407,001.68
37.24
$20,902,157.25
323.39
$4,023,446.03
62.25
$128,308.48
1.99
$2,254,028.81
34.87
$2,354,858.85
36.43
$3,255,410.90
50.37
$368,759.42
$1,741,268.88
$1,049,743.63
$290,631.67
$2,254,130.38
$233,495.26
$22,153,509.59
$1,613,937.95
$926,712.87

5.71
26.94
16.24
4.50
34.87
3.61
342.75
24.97
14.34

21

Student
teacher
Students
ratio
displaced
22.40
208.03
15.88
190.53
20.44
212.40
19.63 15278.70
14.10
100.78
15.70
992.61
16.63
259.06
25.07
651.97
14.48
163.08
15.72
807.92
16.97
1554.24
17.83
261.85
21.09
222.79
16.10
322.03
17.11
633.23
17.15
145.96
16.67
260.55
15.90
343.80
15.86
212.41
15.83
754.50
17.24
2975.10
17.54
1976.46
13.61
506.84
18.38
5943.86
17.89
1113.63
13.63
27.06
17.14
597.73
17.07
621.91
16.06
808.88
11.70
20.62
16.82
23.91
17.90
14.69
18.90
16.13
18.31

66.75
555.50
273.18
107.51
624.26
53.07
6477.94
402.77
262.52

Locality
Lynchburg
Madison
Manassas City
Manassas Park
Martinsville
Mathews
Mecklenburg
Middlesex
Montgomery
Nelson
New Kent
Newport News
Norfolk
Northampton
Northumberland
Norton
Nottoway
Orange
Page
Patrick
Petersburg
Pittsylvania
Poquoson
Portsmouth
Powhatan
Prince Edward
Prince George
Prince William
Pulaski
Radford
Rappahannock
Richmond City
Richmond
County
Roanoke City
Roanoke
County
Rockbridge
Rockingham

Education aid Teachers laid

cut
off
$4,119,866.69
63.74
$765,692.34
11.85
$3,698,104.58
57.22
$1,766,149.63
27.32
$1,259,187.75
19.48
$418,014.80
6.47
$2,296,037.62
35.52
$324,663.88
5.02
$4,238,465.47
65.58
$701,365.48
10.85
$1,112,206.68
17.21
$14,670,625.54
226.98
$16,608,590.44
256.96
$797,921.04
12.35
$321,771.24
4.98
$435,809.86
6.74
$1,313,958.87
20.33
$2,149,702.33
33.26
$1,858,300.81
28.75
$1,364,055.33
21.10
$2,569,783.09
39.76
$4,959,779.23
76.74
$906,860.14
14.03
$8,016,431.44
124.03
$1,782,308.89
27.57
$1,242,827.44
19.23
$3,217,817.03
49.78
$38,441,425.76
594.75
$2,312,113.17
35.77
$785,929.59
12.16
$245,031.78
3.79
$10,664,356.67
164.99

Student
teacher
Students
ratio
displaced
15.66
998.18
16.12
190.96
18.33
1048.75
18.70
510.98
17.24
335.86
18.22
117.83
14.52
515.80
14.82
74.44
15.15
993.47
15.44
167.54
17.95
308.87
17.85
4051.53
15.67
4026.56
14.99
185.05
16.63
82.79
23.14
156.02
17.66
359.01
18.15
603.65
15.16
435.86
16.96
357.92
15.97
634.94
15.16
1163.31
17.35
243.43
19.60
2430.91
15.68
432.38
15.47
297.46
16.23
808.00
19.20 11419.13
14.76
527.99
14.81
180.08
14.76
55.96
17.52
2890.69

$598,808.53
$6,319,875.27

9.26
97.78

16.49
19.09

152.77
1866.58

$6,158,208.24
$996,239.29
$5,032,505.66

95.28
15.41
77.86

16.07
14.70
16.18

1531.10
226.58
1259.78

22

Locality
Russell
Salem
Scott
Shenandoah
Smyth
Southampton
Spotsylvania
Stafford
Staunton
Suffolk
Surry
Sussex
Tazewell
Virginia Beach
Warren
Washington
Waynesboro
Westmoreland
Williamsburg
Winchester
Wise
Wythe
York

Education aid Teachers laid

cut
off
$2,467,792.03
38.18
$1,648,266.22
25.50
$2,229,472.90
34.49
$2,740,454.38
42.40
$2,708,771.79
41.91
$1,474,798.94
22.82
$10,754,225.64
166.38
$11,879,329.09
183.79
$1,453,953.08
22.49
$6,644,491.61
102.80
$251,869.05
3.90
$668,530.62
10.34
$3,266,790.46
50.54
$29,047,484.18
449.41
$2,282,472.49
35.31
$3,328,647.73
51.50
$1,389,594.70
21.50
$753,523.52
11.66
$328,016.38
5.07
$1,756,638.07
27.18
$3,411,910.81
52.79
$2,069,768.25
32.02
$4,985,113.46
77.13

23

Student
teacher
Students
ratio
displaced
18.34
700.23
16.09
410.31
17.06
588.46
16.26
689.41
21.08
883.44
17.75
405.01
17.84
2968.29
18.11
3328.45
22.07
496.46
17.85
1834.98
13.74
53.54
13.59
140.56
17.49
883.98
18.00
8089.34
16.69
589.38
16.42
845.62
15.51
333.45
17.38
202.62
14.27
72.42
15.58
423.43
15.28
806.59
17.92
573.84
17.62
1358.98