Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
WTI €/$ $/¥ 10 yr US 10 yr Euro Basic Energy Financ Health Tech Tel Indus Utilities SOX S&P NAS DOW Close
Last 70,9 1,3934 95,76 3,69 3,48 -1,64 -1,60 -2,19 2,01 0,70 -0,34 -0,64 -0,09 0,93 -0,14 0,66 -0,09 US
Perf 1d % 0,21 -0,06 -0,01 -0,19 bp -4,4 bp -1,54 -1,92 -2,04 1,64 0,46 0,21 -0,67 -0,36 0,47 -0,18 0,42 0,05 Europe
ECONOMIC DATA with impact
Jobless Claims (13h30 UK time) expected 602k from previous 601k / showed some improvement lately / minor as weekly data
Leading Indicators (15h UK time) expected +1% from previous +1% / might be very much welcome although such a leading indicator
rise is reflecting growth level already seen through the steepening of the yield curve, the rising equity prices and the jump in the delivery
times index of the ISM manufacturing index meaning GDP should turn positive, and this is too much for most strategists / interesting
Philadelphia Fed index (15h UK time) expected –17 from previous –22.6 / Michigan index was up, NY one was down / minor then
FINLAND AND SWEDEN MARKETS CLOSED TOMORROW
POSITIVE IMPACTS
BAE SYSTEMS : Saudi Arabia is considering placing an order for a further 72 Typhoon fighter jets worth about £5 bn
CADBURY said that trading improved in April & May / Confirmed FY guidance
ROCHE : Evaluate Pharma, a source for pharma & biotech analysis, said Avastin would be the biggest single selling drug in the world,
with 2014 revenues of $9.23 bn, despite some recent setbacks in clinical trials
NOVARTIS : U.S. regulators have approved Ilaris to treat children and adults with a serious life long auto-inflammatory disease
D. POSTBANK : KfW agency plans to offer DPB state guarantees of up to €1.5bn for the securitization of loans (Handlesblatt)
E.ON aims to wrap up the sale of its gas distribution grid in Italy by the end of the year and potential investors have already been
sounded out / Il Sole 24 Ore said the gas grid could be valued at around €600 m
HSBC : Legal & General IM has offered for the first time public support for activist investor Eric Knight & urged the bank to answer
questions he has raised over the bank's strategy…
FIAT : Chrysler will resume production of vehicles in 7 North American assembly plants by the end of the month
HEIDELBERGCEMENT is being supported by its lenders (FTD citing a refinancing plan of more than €1 bn
FRANCE TELECOM got the telecom regulator’s backing on the prices it charges other providers to access its network (Les Echos)
VIVENDI (yest.) : French TV company Canal+ has ruled out an acquisition of TF1, but may entertain an alliance with M6 (Le Monde)
PEUGEOT is likely to set up a manufacturing facility for mid-sized cars in India (The Economic Times)
EADS : China Eastern Airlines agreed to buy 20 A320 family aircraft for $1.45 bn
WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24
BUY LAFARGE / SELL HOLCIM // BUY ALLIANZ & MUNICH RE / SELL AXA // BUY DAIMLER / SELL BMW // BUY PHILIPS / SELL ASML
BROKER METEOROLOGY
SAINSBURY......................................................... RAISED TO NEUTRAL ......................................................................... BY MERRILL
ING ......................................................................RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL ...................................... BY GOLDMAN SACHS
SCHNEIDER ........................................................RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD .............................................. BY DEUTSCHE BANK
ATLAS COPCO....................................................RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD .............................................. BY DEUTSCHE BANK
XSTRATA ............................................................RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD ......................................................... BY CITIGROUP
CNP ......................................................................RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD........................................................................BY ING
SAINSBURY ........................................................RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM UNDERPERFORM................................ BY MERRILL
HOME RETAIL GROUP ......................................RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT .............................................. BY MORGAN STANLEY
MEDIASET ..........................................................RAISED TO BUY FROM SELL ...................................................................... BY RBS
SAINSBURY ..........................CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY ...................................................................................... BY ING
REED ELSEVIER....................CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT FROM OVERWEIGHT ........................ BY MORGAN STANLEY
Prix à la consommation - G -
Prix à la consommation hors énergie et produits alimentaires - D -
Source : Bloomberg
Looking at the year on year data we see that U.S. inflation fell further into negative territory from -0.7% in April to -1.3% in May
deepening a deflation situation. This drop of inflation is explained by a “base effects” from last year’s energy price pike and will go
deeper in the coming months. Nevertheless the year on year drop of prices do not get generalized, indeed core inflation rose 1.8%
(prior1.9%) from a year ago. A core consumer price index of 1.8% represent an perfect inflation meaning not to high to hit household
purchase power and not to slow to push companies to increase lays off.
ECONOMY
UNITED-STATES : INFLATION FELL FURTHER INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY IN MAY
American consumer prices slightly increase from 0.0% in April to 0.1% in May (expected 0.3%). This rise, smaller than expected is
mainly due to the declines in the price of food and gas & electricity offsetting the 3.1% increase in gasoline prices. Indeed food prices fell
by 0.2% and Gas& electricity prices fell by 1.7% following the continuing decline in natural gas price. Excluding food and energy, core
consumer price index increase by 0.1% (prior 0.3%) in May. Looking at the breakdown we see that the only sign of inflationary pressure
can be find in the 0.5% increase in motor vehicle prices. Meanwhile the price of clothing and public transportation both fell in May.
Looking at the year on year data we see that inflation fell further into negative territory from -0.7% in April to -1.3% in May confirming a
deflation situation. This drop of inflation is explained by a “base effects” from last year’s energy price pike and will go deeper in the
coming months. Nevertheless the year on year drop of prices do not get generalized, indeed core inflation rose 1.8% (prior1.9%) from a
year ago. A core consumer price index of 1.8% represent an perfect inflation meaning not to high to hit household purchase power and
not to slow to push companies to increase their lay off.
VIX index : implied volatility on the S&P 500 $Libor -3-Month(Interbank Rate)
6
85
80
5,5
75 5
70
65 4,5
60 4
55
50 3,5
45 3
40
35 2,5
30 2
25
20 1,5
15
1
10
5 0,5
18/06/2007 18/12/2007 18/06/2008 18/12/2008 18/06/2009 18/06/2007 18/12/2007 18/06/2008 18/12/2008 18/06/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg
United States : 10-year Treasury yield 1,2 10-year Treasury spread USA-Euro zone
5,5 1
5,25
0,8
5
4,75 0,6
4,5 0,4
4,25
0,2
4
3,75 0
3,5 -0,2
3,25
-0,4
3
-0,6
2,75
2,5 -0,8
2,25 -1
2 18/06/2007 18/12/2007 18/06/2008 18/12/2008 18/06/2009
18/06/2007 18/12/2007 18/06/2008 18/12/2008 18/06/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg
30 1,2
18/06/2007 18/12/2007 18/06/2008 18/12/2008 18/06/2009 18/06/2007 18/12/2007 18/06/2008 18/12/2008 18/06/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg