Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
06 September 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Unde r V a lue d ......................................................................6
Chemicals
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ................................................................................... 15
Transport
Under Valued ....................................................................................... 15
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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06 September 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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06 September 2013
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
06 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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06 September 2013
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Page 5 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
445.10
300.80
455.40
Neutral
Buy
Target
610
Beta
0.70
CHEMRING GROUP
311.00
217.00
360.60
Neutral
Buy
368
0.67
COBHAM
296.10
190.10
307.70
Neutral
Neutral
301
0.82
MEGGITT
533.00
366.20
562.00
Neutral
Neutral
527
1.25
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1147.00
811.65
1240.00
Neutral
Neutral
1150
0.98
SMITHS GROUP
1328.00
1011.00
1397.00
Neutral
Sell
1161
0.76
1892.00
1505.00
1981.00
Neutral
Sell
1717
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
346.60
201.00
354.00
Neutral
Neutral
341
1.96
INCHCAPE
611.00
353.30
645.00
Neutral
Neutral
641
1.41
LOOKERS
122.00
68.75
128.50
Neutral
Sell
113
1.22
33.25
13.50
33.50
Neutral
Buy
44
1.04
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
296.00
193.05
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-837
1.96
707.60
555.10
769.90
Neutral
Buy
865
1.19
74.77
36.20
77.14
Neutral
Sell
1.88
335.80
233.50
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-118
1.39
STANDARD CHARTERED
1472.50
1380.00
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3425
1.67
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
543.50
432.20
588.50
Neutral
Sell
480
0.58
DIAGEO
1977.50
1672.50
2136.50
Sell
Neutral
2147
0.51
SABMILLER
3060.50
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4164
0.89
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALENT
365.00
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Buy
467
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
313.30
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
573
1.11
CARCLO
366.50
342.75
501.00
Neutral
Sell
146
0.74
2607.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3350
1.05
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
252.10
204.20
275.00
Neutral
Buy
322
1.07
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2974.00
2190.00
2974.00
Neutral
Buy
4402
1.44
VICTREX
1625.00
1322.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1389
1.16
SYNTHOMER
229.30
146.00
231.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
408
1.05
ZOTEFOAMS
197.50
184.50
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
307
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
129.00
76.00
129.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
283
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
264.00
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1127
0.82
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
307.40
158.80
355.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
622
1.67
0.96
0.55
BELLWAY
1356.00
913.00
1502.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2915
2130.00
1387.00
2340.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3523
0.55
BOOT (HENRY)
190.00
123.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
371
0.74
1.07
770.00
487.00
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1463
CARILLION
293.20
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1575
1.06
CLARKE (T)
61.50
40.00
62.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
394
0.76
277.50
226.25
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1155
0.50
CRH
COSTAIN GROUP
1427.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
911
1.03
GALLIFORD TRY
1015.00
653.50
1020.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3015
0.93
KELLER
1134.00
507.00
1161.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2435
1.28
KIER GROUP
1588.00
1106.00
1588.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5455
0.99
70.75
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
230
1.08
1.33
165.00
85.00
165.00
Neutral
Buy
209
684.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4629
0.70
18.75
11.25
19.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
62
1.02
NORCROS
1152.00
685.75
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2033
0.99
REDROW
PERSIMMON
235.00
149.70
255.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
464
0.84
SIG
184.20
99.00
188.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
539
1.68
43.50
43.00
287.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4303
0.89
101.40
54.30
113.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
231
1.58
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1605.00
1030.00
1713.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4500
1.94
WOLSELEY
3383.00
2635.64
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6136
1.30
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1390.00
999.50
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
1096
0.67
685.00
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
920
1.12
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
135.25
105.50
138.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
285
1.25
INVENSYS
494.00
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
284
1.42
LAIRD
220.60
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
460
2.06
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1527.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1347
1.11
RENISHAW
1768.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2166
1.28
SPECTRIS
2330.00
1549.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2933
1.51
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
115.00
65.00
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-445
0.76
TT ELECTRONICS
186.00
114.00
191.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
445
1.61
XAAR
797.00
227.00
898.00
Neutral
Sell
435
1.08
DIALIGHT
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Target
Beta
06 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
119.50
54.25
119.50
Sell
Buy
147
1.14
BODYCOTE
653.50
345.10
653.50
Sell
Neutral
641
1.59
CASTINGS
437.50
291.00
443.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
677
0.93
VESUVIUS
472.70
263.19
480.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1198
2.23
FENNER
364.20
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
561
1.47
HALMA
570.50
410.40
578.00
Neutral
Sell
415
0.79
443.00
354.75
480.00
Neutral
Buy
548
1.31
1474.00
869.50
1504.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4476
1.39
307.00
220.30
318.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
510
1.89
2784.00
2229.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
-2733
1.01
282.30
185.90
288.40
Neutral
Sell
250
1.66
56.25
35.40
76.91
Neutral
Sell
47
0.79
SPIRAX-SARCO
3060.00
1932.53
3060.00
Neutral
Sell
2143
0.81
VITEC GROUP
649.00
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
486
1.34
WEIR GROUP
2239.00
1631.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2212
1.45
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
421.20
392.10
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
776
0.45
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
294.00
248.60
296.90
Neutral
Buy
392
0.37
SAINSBURY (J)
388.40
321.90
398.70
Neutral
Buy
480
0.55
TESCO
367.20
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
197
0.67
77.25
26.50
100.50
Neutral
Sell
49
0.79
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1829.00
1267.00
2031.00
Neutral
Sell
1644
0.59
CRANSWICK
1140.00
732.50
1178.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1763
0.31
DAIRY CREST
490.60
332.90
528.50
Neutral
Sell
387
0.88
DEVRO
331.50
289.90
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
505
0.36
PREMIER FOODS
142.00
59.75
142.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
252
1.23
799.50
634.50
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1333
0.65
2439.00
2235.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2181
0.50
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
27.00
22.75
29.50
Neutral
Buy
39
0.67
550.50
266.40
577.00
Neutral
Sell
470
0.50
1570.00
1000.00
1593.00
Neutral
Sell
1262
1.29
662.00
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
360
0.87
46.88
18.70
46.88
Neutral
Neutral
49
1.46
247.50
108.00
247.50
Neutral
Sell
66
1.04
31.00
22.75
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
114
1.03
HALFORDS GROUP
381.00
245.10
405.20
Neutral
Buy
526
0.71
JD SPORTS FASHION
957.00
660.00
963.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1803
0.51
DARTY
Target
Beta
80.00
39.00
88.25
Neutral
Buy
118
1.22
KINGFISHER
405.80
262.20
405.80
Neutral
Buy
460
0.90
494.90
356.80
494.90
Sell
Buy
659
0.61
69.00
45.00
71.00
Neutral
Buy
76
0.95
441.50
202.00
492.75
Neutral
Sell
168
0.36
NEXT
5075.00
3320.00
5075.00
Sell
Neutral
5485
0.59
TED BAKER
1920.00
899.00
1973.00
Neutral
Sell
993
0.57
81.50
46.00
89.75
Neutral
Sell
77
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
146.00
130.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
125
0.38
CONSORT MEDICAL
853.00
660.50
857.00
Neutral
Sell
604
0.35
OPTOS
157.75
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Buy
176
1.18
767.00
638.00
800.00
Neutral
Sell
647
0.40
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
771.50
601.00
794.50
Neutral
Neutral
756
0.31
HEADLAM GROUP
392.25
295.00
415.00
Neutral
Sell
331
0.89
81.25
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
113
0.69
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
894.00
547.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
292
0.69
CSR
494.90
308.10
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1567
1.13
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
63.50
30.75
83.25
Neutral
Sell
56
0.93
279.30
235.10
624.00
Neutral
Buy
329
1.04
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
131.50
118.00
170.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
253
0.90
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
164.75
140.00
226.25
Neutral
Sell
-193
0.93
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06 September 2013
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1260.00
1019.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-430
0.52
AMLIN
378.90
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1493
0.38
BEAZLEY
201.30
162.20
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
928
0.52
CATLIN GROUP
469.90
455.30
552.50
Neutral
Neutral
465
0.23
HISCOX
637.50
463.32
660.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1859
0.42
904.50
723.00
949.50
Neutral
Buy
1202
0.30
119.00
107.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
707
0.35
NOVAE GROUP
518.00
345.00
518.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3341
0.35
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2340.00
2125.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3469
0.95
ENTERPRISE INNS
143.40
59.00
152.20
Neutral
Sell
110
1.65
TUI TRAVEL
335.40
219.60
401.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
716
0.96
937.50
700.50
969.00
Neutral
Sell
602
0.27
GREENE KING
846.00
586.00
897.50
Neutral
Sell
618
0.89
LADBROKES
191.50
171.00
243.10
Neutral
Buy
259
0.90
1875.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1654
1.09
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
558.00
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
580
1.36
450.10
276.60
450.10
Sell
Sell
272
0.98
111.90
93.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
60
1.28
12.25
6.15
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
74
1.15
153.10
129.10
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
567
0.97
0.66
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
555.50
343.00
570.00
Neutral
Sell
385
WETHERSPOON (JD)
724.00
454.50
767.00
Neutral
Sell
683
0.54
WHITBREAD
3185.00
2210.00
3303.00
Neutral
Sell
2162
0.98
WILLIAM HILL
414.50
282.89
494.50
Neutral
Sell
254
0.84
MARSTON'S
160.60
113.00
164.50
Neutral
Sell
12
1.15
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
394.10
294.10
404.90
Neutral
Sell
362
1.18
CHESNARA
262.00
176.50
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
514
0.61
192.10
131.40
201.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
484
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
184.70
166.10
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
389
1.55
PRUDENTIAL
1124.00
801.50
1232.00
Neutral
Neutral
1165
1.69
610.00
357.70
641.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6544
0.83
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
06 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
142.75
102.00
144.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
0.40
851.50
709.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.46
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
41.25
31.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.06
806.00
451.25
835.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3556
1.06
1197.00
747.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5566
0.93
INFORMA
526.00
380.50
541.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.64
ITE GROUP
285.10
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Buy
201
1.46
ITV
174.60
85.65
174.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.46
1.21
JOHNSTON PRESS
15.00
5.20
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1285.00
1119.00
1350.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
0.65
99.50
43.25
99.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.85
289.00
269.00
289.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.14
35.50
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.52
STV GROUP
215.00
81.50
215.00
Neutral
Sell
240
0.82
ST.IVES
164.25
76.25
170.00
Neutral
Sell
159
1.49
TRINITY MIRROR
124.50
40.00
124.50
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.58
UBM
719.50
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
1.34
185.00
104.25
196.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.83
1244.00
788.00
1244.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.25
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1571.00
1207.00
2084.00
Neutral
Sell
1300
1.85
200.25
161.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
214
1.09
ANTOFAGASTA
881.00
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Neutral
864
1.42
1912.50
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3018
1.49
GLENCORE XSTRATA
316.05
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
1051
#NA
LONMIN
341.80
240.84
380.10
Sell
Buy
461
2.05
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
5055.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2940
0.48
RIO TINTO
3098.50
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2560
1.55
928.00
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2859
2.29
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
VEDANTA RESOURCES
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1280.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
912
0.84
BP
445.75
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1015
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
275.00
251.80
297.00
Neutral
Sell
-33
1.33
9.00
7.15
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
115
0.81
837.50
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
583
1.35
69.50
48.50
83.50
Neutral
Sell
-61
1.33
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
368.00
321.30
400.20
Neutral
Buy
415
1.49
2162.50
2098.00
2365.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8422
0.83
410.10
319.90
410.10
Neutral
Buy
471
0.52
1033.00
977.00
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
711
1.07
792.00
720.50
915.50
Neutral
Sell
738
1.44
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
06 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
126.00
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
275
0.83
PZ CUSSONS
421.30
297.20
425.80
Neutral
Sell
344
0.71
4373.00
3565.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4438
0.31
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.52
0.36
3.58
Buy
Strong Buy
231
0.91
3143.50
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
180070
0.49
BTG
384.80
307.30
397.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
6259
0.70
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
706.00
536.50
780.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
48274
0.18
1652.50
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
36262
0.50
1.61
1.33
2.80
Buy
Strong Buy
74
0.53
66.25
52.50
637.50
Neutral
Sell
-188
0.90
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
PHYTOPHARM SUSP - 21/05/13
SHIRE
Target
Beta
2432.00
1727.00
2442.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
42810
0.69
SKYEPHARMA
78.25
43.50
100.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14479
0.55
VERNALIS
25.13
19.38
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
361
0.84
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
414.80
311.60
445.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
666
1.18
BRITISH LAND
549.00
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Buy
785
1.05
2290.00
1907.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4534
1.24
528.50
439.90
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1051
1.06
HAMMERSON
488.00
448.60
554.00
Neutral
Neutral
521
1.27
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
INTU PROPERTIES
304.90
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
509
1.14
881.00
761.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1648
1.16
27.38
24.25
40.00
Neutral
Sell
-157
0.81
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
108.60
103.20
120.30
Neutral
Sell
-6
0.34
MCKAY SECURITIES
159.00
131.50
159.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
248
0.65
442.00
325.00
454.50
Neutral
Sell
230
0.37
337.00
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
93
0.26
0.62
43.75
30.69
45.00
Neutral
Sell
-382
SEGRO
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
290.30
221.60
313.60
Neutral
Sell
-279
1.82
SHAFTESBURY
580.00
520.00
668.00
Neutral
Buy
801
1.04
194.00
177.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
1.04
0.80
0.70
2.05
Neutral
Sell
-999
0.93
442.90
250.75
475.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1169
1.02
www.intellisys.uk.com
06 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
317.90
210.90
365.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
725
40.25
22.75
42.00
Neutral
Sell
-49
0.56
CLS HOLDINGS
1170.00
656.50
1260.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2876
0.73
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
3860.00
2706.00
4179.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6996
0.47
191.75
143.00
209.00
Neutral
Neutral
190
0.98
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
Target
Beta
0.73
GRAINGER
172.30
100.00
187.50
Neutral
Sell
109
1.57
HELICAL BAR
266.25
178.00
302.50
Neutral
Sell
197
0.83
33.00
21.00
33.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
225
0.63
6075.00
4350.00
6512.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14286
0.68
84.75
51.00
92.00
Sell
Sell
-194
1.02
RAVEN RUSSIA
73.00
61.50
79.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
207
1.52
620.00
391.20
664.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2134
0.69
90.00
71.50
90.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
379
0.32
SAVILLS
SMART (J)
ST MODWEN PROPS.
302.10
193.10
333.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
608
1.63
UNITE GROUP
357.90
246.00
403.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1625
1.78
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
120.60
109.60
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
126
0.66
2405.00
1884.39
2588.15
Neutral
Sell
1491
1.52
COMPUTACENTER
538.00
333.29
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1177
0.90
KOFAX
367.25
260.75
367.25
Neutral
Sell
308
1.04
AVEVA GROUP
INNOVATION GROUP
Target
Beta
29.00
20.00
30.25
Neutral
Sell
22
0.81
763.00
541.11
812.50
Neutral
Buy
887
0.81
PHOENIX IT GROUP
151.75
130.00
184.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
250
0.73
81.50
64.00
85.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
239
0.54
2140.00
1275.00
2190.00
Neutral
Neutral
2181
0.77
352.10
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
438
0.69
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
364.90
285.20
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1205
1.12
BREWIN DOLPHIN
263.60
153.20
283.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
639
0.69
8650.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
92970
0.85
466.50
260.00
474.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1395
0.93
0.65
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
CHARLES TAYLOR
Target
Beta
183.00
155.00
195.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1599
1082.00
808.00
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4705
0.85
97.85
88.90
110.40
Neutral
Sell
68
0.86
5.44
0.55
5.44
Sell
Sell
-127
0.61
HENDERSON GROUP
HELPHIRE GROUP
175.50
104.90
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
791
1.44
ICAP
400.00
280.80
406.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
797
1.07
448.60
287.20
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2179
1.70
INVESTEC
418.90
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1622
1.56
1601.00
930.00
1622.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6047
1.13
85.45
71.80
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4809
1.39
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1594.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5383
0.71
SCHRODERS
2419.00
1464.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8013
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1934.00
1176.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
10673
1.28
www.intellisys.uk.com
06 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
265.50
157.75
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
865
0.83
AGGREKO
1599.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4240
1.14
AMEC
1057.00
965.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3347
1.11
655.00
322.90
730.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1002
1.64
1156.00
910.00
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2642
0.49
563.00
371.50
604.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2379
0.80
1365.00
1009.00
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2814
0.50
UK MAIL GROUP
620.00
233.50
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1678
0.42
CAPITA
981.50
713.00
1057.00
Neutral
Sell
211
0.54
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
57.25
34.54
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
485
0.83
COMPASS GROUP
853.00
671.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2001
0.75
BERENDSEN
897.50
540.00
897.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3390
1.08
DE LA RUE
1042.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Buy
1449
#NA
DIGNITY
1470.00
902.82
1567.68
Neutral
Strong Buy
3149
0.25
DIPLOMA
651.50
435.00
651.50
Sell
Strong Buy
1536
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
271.90
200.00
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
936
0.98
ESSENTRA PLC
792.00
500.50
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1397
1.14
G4S
254.40
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
887
0.47
HAYS
106.70
73.05
107.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
462
1.03
HOMESERVE
247.80
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
982
0.89
INTERSERVE
565.00
349.10
574.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3719
1.25
3319.00
2697.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4828
0.80
49.25
30.50
50.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
117
1.10
0.57
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
26.63
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
219
MENZIES (JOHN)
775.00
573.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1812
1.41
478.20
346.40
478.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
849
1.36
MITIE GROUP
289.80
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1069
0.52
37.50
33.75
139.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
716
0.31
OFFICE2OFFICE
1089.00
702.00
1185.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2220
0.75
PREMIER FARNELL
PAYPOINT
224.80
165.50
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
726
1.41
REGUS
183.70
96.00
193.40
Neutral
Sell
57
1.38
RENTOKIL INITIAL
107.50
79.40
107.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
272
1.26
REXAM
498.50
425.22
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1788
0.84
RICARDO
480.75
349.63
485.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1685
0.90
ROBERT WALTERS
277.25
176.25
285.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1039
1.15
RPC GROUP
471.80
378.00
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1538
0.81
RPS GROUP
257.80
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1009
1.51
SERCO GROUP
555.50
535.00
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2393
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
98.00
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
270
1.49
SPEEDY HIRE
58.25
24.25
64.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
311
1.18
183.00
90.00
202.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
567
0.65
69.00
40.50
69.00
Sell
Strong Buy
335
0.90
VP
447.50
295.25
447.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2320
0.79
WYG
103.00
48.50
103.00
Sell
Strong Buy
625
0.82
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
342.50
212.50
344.00
Neutral
Buy
431
0.89
40.94
34.22
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
82
0.67
745.50
542.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
275
0.53
88.95
68.25
89.35
Neutral
Buy
122
1.20
1365.00
821.00
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
825
0.05
210.55
154.45
213.20
Neutral
Sell
111
0.51
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
06 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
318.80
195.70
318.80
Sell
Sell
238
1.22
455.00
350.00
460.00
Neutral
Buy
606
1.06
CLARKSON
2000.00
1150.00
2000.00
Sell
Sell
1364
0.86
EASYJET
1236.00
556.50
1448.00
Neutral
Sell
884
0.77
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
117.10
92.00
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
288
0.88
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1129.00
724.00
1130.00
Neutral
Sell
808
0.72
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1509.00
1220.00
1595.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2791
0.97
NATIONAL EXPRESS
273.70
164.50
273.70
Neutral
Sell
255
1.39
NORTHGATE
393.25
220.00
395.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
660
1.34
STAGECOACH GROUP
324.80
265.90
337.60
Neutral
Buy
455
0.97
95.00
43.75
95.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
243
0.95
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
393.80
310.80
394.90
Neutral
Buy
577
0.50
NATIONAL GRID
738.50
678.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
972
0.45
PENNON GROUP
717.00
598.00
749.50
Neutral
Sell
638
0.63
SSE
1574.00
1358.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2297
0.40
SEVERN TRENT
1698.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1483
0.37
681.50
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
747
0.49
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
06 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
no event will Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be
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