TECHNICAL MEETING ON FAST REACTORS AND RELATED FUEL CYCLE FACILITIES WITH IMPROVED ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS IAEA Headquarters

Vienna Austria, 11-13 September 2013

INPE ACTIVITIES IN ADVANCED TOOLS DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION FOR THE INNOVATIVE FAST REACTORS AND RELATED FUEL CYCLES COST ASSESSMENTS
A. ANDRIANOV, N. AYRAPETOVA, Yu. KOROVIN, V. MUROGOV, E. FEDOROVA

Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering National Nuclear Research University MEPhI

CONTENT Introduction Conceptual framework for efficiency assessment studies Application of MCDM methods for fast reactors and related fuel cycles efficiency assessment studies Application of uncertainty analysis methods for fast reactors and related fuel cycles efficiency assessment studies Conclusion

INTRODUCTION
The future nuclear power system should meet the following basic requirements: to be resourcesufficient and to produce a low amount of wastes in the long run, to be cost effective, to maintain the necessary level of safety and reliability, to ensure the effective resistance to nuclear weapons proliferation. In performing an integrated analysis on the design of the future nuclear power structure, consideration must be given to the full range of system factors and constraints.
There is a growing understanding that the problem of efficiency assessment and optimizing the nuclear power system is multi-criteria. The criteria characterizing resource consumption, economy, the risks of unauthorized proliferation and waste management, are conflicting by nature. This means that improving the value of one criterion leads to a decrease in the values of other criteria. Considering the significant uncertainty specific to the problem field investigated, uncertainty analysis is an inevitable step expected to provide better grounds for judgments. Uncertainties may not be ignored in the assessment process and their examination should enable the decision maker to reach a conclusion regarding the stability of results. The development and application of state-of-the art multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) and uncertainty analysis techniques for the innovative fast reactors and related fuel cycles cost assessments and optimization of the nuclear power structures in multi-objective formulation is urgently necessary. Based on this techniques decision support tools intend to highlight conflicts and find compromises in the decision making process related to the innovative fast reactors and related fuel cycles cost assessments.

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT STUDIES

ADVANCED TOOLS DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION IN INPE & NNRU MEPHI

INPE specialists have been working in the field of energy systems forecasting for over 25 years. The working groups have developed technical approaches to assessing energy systems efficiency that were realized as a set of software prognosis tools.
Global nuclear fuel market
6 90 10 90

Since 2000 the group has been engaged in a process of incorporation of certified international software on energy planning into national prognostic practice. The specialists are certified software users.
Advanced global nuclear power systems
GW

80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 2005 2005 TENEX EURODIF USEC URENCO

2 3 1

Studies provide an in-depth technical and policy analysis of various NFC including such aspects as safety, resources, waste management, nonproliferation, economics.

Multicriteriality, uncertainty, Assessment methodologies: dynamics are the key sensitivity factors points for consideration.
system dynamics method of unimprovable alternatives

LES/NEF

Software developed :
2030 2030

2010

2015

2020

2025

Russian nuclear power prospects: close NFC with fast reactors

SYSTEM EKONOM SMAENG GENESIS MEDNES ParSAM

Applications:
National, regional and global levels Optimization of energy and nuclear power structures

Small and medium sized reactors for regional energy supply

International software used:

A training course for 6 Russian institutions was organized in cooperation with the IAEA. MESSEGE DESAE SIMPACT ENPEP MAED

Energy system issues are considered at national, regional, inter-regional and global levels

Special training for students and post-graduate students is a permanent concern. Relevant training materials have been developed by the group. Our students regularly participate in national and international workshops and conferences.

The work has been carried out in close cooperation with authorized international organizations, as well as Russian and foreign research centers

FRAMEWORK FOR EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT

The main assessment framework standpoints: multicriteriality, uncertainty, dynamics & evolution Four areas of concern are determined by material flows and determine efficiency of fast reactors and related fuel cycles: resources, economics, waste management and nonproliferation. Different levels for considerations and assessments: the facility level, the NFC level, the nuclear power level.
MULTICRITERIALITY

EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT
DYNAMICS & EVOLUTION UNCERTAINTY

Nuclear power plant

Spent fuel
Reprocessing plant

Fresh fuel
Fuel Fabrication Plant

Fissile materials

MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION MAKING (MCDM)

Problem formulation, goals, formalization
Decision Maker, Experts, Stakeholders

Criteria identification
Experts, Stakeholders, Decision Support Tools (DST)

Formation of alternatives
Models, Expert- Stakeholders judgments

Experts, Stakeholders, KB

Criteria assessment
Summary tables
DM/Exp/St-H preferences Weighting Scoring

DST

Expert Judgments, DST

DST, Expert Judgments

Aggregation
DST, Models

Uncertainty analysis
E

Final Recommendations

Experts-Stakeholders for Decision Maker

BASIC TOOLS FOR EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT

To perform calculation based on the proposed concept systematic implementation of MCDM and uncertainty analysis techniques the specialized software was developed
DIALOG SYSTEM OF STOCHASTIC MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION INTERACTIVE SYSTEM FOR VISUAL ANALYSIS OF FEASIBLE SET BORDERS

UNCERTANTY CALCULATOR

SIMPLE MCDA TOOLBOX

APPLICATION OF MCDM METHODS FOR FAST REACTORS AND RELATED FUEL CYCLES EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT STUDIES

THE MAIN COMPONENTS OF MCDM TECHNIQUES

Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques are a tool aimed at supporting decision makers faced with making numerous and conflicting assessments. MCDM techniques intend to highlight conflicts and find compromises in the decision making process. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Multi-Objective Decision Making (MODM) are the main components of MCDM. A large number of MCDA techniques have been developed to deal with different kinds of problems (MAVT, AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE, etc.). At the same time each technique has pros and cons and can be more or less useful depending on the situation. The methods of MODM for multi-objective optimization problem solving are various: a priori methods; a posteriori methods; adaptive methods; methods based on the preliminary construction of the Pareto set approximation. MODM: base methods Combinatorial optimization problems JMetal GA framework NSGA-II, MOCHC algorithms Fuzzy hybrid algorithm FMOCHC Neural Net joined with GA optimization etc MCDA: base methods MAVT (aggregation) AHP (pairwise comparison) TOPSIS (distance to ideal point) PROMETHEE (pairwise comparison based on preference functions) MAUT (uncertain criterion values) Fuzzy MAVT (MAVT joined with fuzzy theory) ProMAA (distributed criterion values and weights) etc

BASIC TOOL FOR MATERIAL FLOW CALCULATION AND MODM IMPLEMENTATION

MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts) is a large-scale dynamic system engineering optimization model used for medium- and long-term energy planning, energy policy and energy development scenarios analysis. The software was originally developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Currently, this software is supported by the IAEA, and is used in the toolbox of the INPRO project. MESSAGE software is a flexible modeling environment that allows the user to formulate a linear programming problem, find the optimal solution and process the calculation results.

MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION MODULES FOR NUCLEAR POWER SYSTEMS STUDIES

For realization of MODM techniques for energy planning software MESSAGE the following methods have been implemented as modules (draft version): methods of effective solutions selection through single criterion optimization (linear direct weighting of criteria and criteria constraints methods); goal programming method; reasonable goals method (interactive method of multi-criteria decision-making support).

ConCriM

implementation of the criteria constraints method and stochastic LP

ParSAM implementation of reasonable goals methods, GRS-method

NESI
module for specification of nuclear energy systems description

MULTI-OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPING GLOBAL NUCLEAR POWER SYSTEM

Following options of global nuclear power with closed NFC were considered: (1) U-Pu closed NFC with LWR, HWR and their advanced prototypes, FR breeder and burner (2) U-Pu-Th closed NFC with fast breeders with Th blankets and Pu cores

STRUCTURES OF DEVELOPING NUCLEAR POWER

The step-by-step setting of restrictions (total amount of natural uranium, SNF, the locations of FR) have defined the following optimal nuclear power structures: once-through uranium NFC with restrictions on uranium resources (I); no

closed U-Pu NFC with and without restrictions on the locations of FR and the limitations on the amount of available natural uranium (II, III);
closed U-Pu-Th NFC with restrictions on the location of FR and the amount of available natural uranium (IV).

The study results have proven that it is difficult, or even impossible with limited set of reactor technologies, to meet the set of constraints that reflect the system requirements for a nuclear power system. In respect to this type of system constraints, the nuclear power system structure becomes extremely sensitive to the reactor technology types and loses its ability to adapt to changing external conditions, while meeting the set of conflicting system constraints. In such a system, each technology plays an important role. If one of them is lost, there will be no optimal solution for a given set of constraints. In this study a compromise could be found in transition to U-Pu-Th NFC.

NUCLEAR POWER STRUCTURE COMPARISON ON PROLIFERATION RISK INDICATORS

Different structures of developing nuclear power systems are comparable by indicators "total amount of fissile materials in NFC" and "potential productivity of fissionable materials". The improvement of one indicator is achieved by worsening another. It is impossible to make definitive judgments about the prospect of a nuclear power structure and the NFC type from the non-proliferation viewpoint based on material flow assessment, without a detailed analysis of the proliferation scenarios and specification of acting national and international systems of nonproliferation regime management.

Scenarios I II III IV

Total amount of fissile materials in NFC, 106SQ 4.1 6.2 2.2 4.3 3.0 5.1 1.9 4.0

Potential productivity of fissionable materials, 106SQ/yr 33 362 455 664 302 370 420 480

Indicators characterizing the proliferation potential of scenarios:

Potential productivity of fissile materials, SQ/year Total amount of fissile materials in NFC - Amounts of direct- and indirect-use nuclear materials, SQ

MULTI-OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF RUSSIAN NUCLEAR POWER WITH DIFFERENT FR

Using the reasonable goals method, the studies on Russian nuclear power with FR with different breeding parameters were carried out to establish a compromise development strategy on a set of conflicting criteria and to identify cost-effective measures for reduction uranium consumption, risks of proliferation and SNF management.

COST-EFFECTIVE REDUCTION OF NATURAL URANIUM CONSUMPTION

5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500

uranium consumption, kt

Cost-effective reduction of natural uranium consumption and related technological options may be obtained by means of calculation of trade-off strategies on criteria minimizations of the total discounted costs and the natural uranium consumption. Trade-off curve identifies additional cost related to reduction of natural uranium consumption.

1000 9 3,00x10

cost, 1000$
3,25x10
9

3,50x10

3,75x10

4,00x10

4,25x10

4,50x10

4,75x10

5,00x10

COST-EFFECTIVE PLUTONIUM MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

1.3

The relative increase in total costs

Relative attractiveness of plutonium on different NFC stages

Pu multirecycling and forming of balance of Pu production and consumption 1.2

Preventing the accumulation of separated Pu 1.1 Consumption of different accumulated Pu forms 1.0

Increasing nuclear proliferation risk importance

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

The relative increase of scale of nuclear proliferation risks

Cost-effective strategy for plutonium management and related technological options may be obtained by means of trade-off strategies calculation on criteria minimizations of the total discounted costs and the plutonium risk exposure. Trade-off curve identifies additional cost related to implementation of measures for reduction proliferation risks associated with plutonium.

COST-EFFECTIVE COMPLEX SOLUTIONS

2

Interactive decision map

1

Value path

3 2

4 4

Obtained by means of MODM methods the trade-off nuclear power structures specify balanced solutions on set of conflicting criteria and satisfy the cost-effective condition. These structures are always diversified by different reactor types. Technological diversity provides effective risk management. Trade-off surface (in n-dimensional space, n number of criteria) of non-dominated solution allows identifying additional cost related to implementation of complex measures to reduce uranium consumption, proliferation risks and SNF accumulation.

APPLICATION OF MCDA TECHNIQUES

Application of the MCDA methods (MAVT, AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE, MAUT, etc) for multi-criteria assessment of the efficiency of the various nuclear power structures shows that, despite some differences in the ranking alternatives, the results obtained by using different methods, are well coordinated. The multicriteria approach allows providing more detailed differentiation of the alternatives, specifying benefits and risks associated with alternatives and identifying trade-off solutions. Rank of nuclear power structures
Structure MAVT MAUT TOPSIS PROMETHEE

2
3 4 5 6 7

1
6 4 7 3 2

1
6 4 7 3 2

1
3 6 7 4 5

2
6 4 7 3 1

As recommendations on the use of MCDA method to multi-criteria assessment of the effectiveness of the various nuclear power structures can be specified following points. Preselection of non-dominated alternatives leads to greater sustainability of alternatives ranking (in comparison with the consideration of the whole set of alternatives): ranking order, within a set of non-dominated alternatives, slightly changing the transition to the different methods of assessment. Despite the fact that on the results of ranking alternatives affect the expert preferences of certain criteria, the stability regions exist in which a wide range of variation of the preferences, the ranking order is preserved. Taking into account the results of the sensitivity analysis and the additional analysis of alternatives by using expert judgment and total set of graphical and attribute information the best alternative may be chosen.

INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF NPP CONSTRUCTION BASED ON SMSR MODULES

MODM techniques may be used for assessment of investment attractiveness of NPP construction based on small and medium sized reactors and for formulation of recommendations on the ways to increase it.

NPV - net present value PV - present value DPP - discounted payback period IRR - internal rate of return

APPLICATION OF UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR FAST REACTORS AND RELATED FUEL CYCLES EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT STUDIES

UNCERTAINTY IN COST ESTIMATIONS

One major shortcoming of conventional approach for cost assessments is the requirement to use point estimates for the technology characteristics and other important parameters. Considering the significant uncertainty specific to the problem field investigated, uncertainty analysis is an inevitable step expected to provide better grounds for judgments. Uncertainties may not be ignored in the assessment process and their examination should enable the decision maker to reach a conclusion regarding the stability of results.

METHODS OF UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

The greatest application in assessing efficiency was found by the following uncertainty analysis methods: Scenario-based analysis (analysis of developments according to various credible scenarios following the logic of what-if); Parametric analysis (with initial data variations over wide ranges of values); Marginal sensitivity analysis (analysis of the effect made by insignificant changes in the initial data of a model on the solution.

The uncertainty consideration methods that have been finding increasing application include interval algebra, fuzzy sets, probabilistic methods, and the Monte Carlo technique.
The analytical approach Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test The Extreme Condition Approach for Uncertainty Propagation The Statistical Approach for Uncertainty Propagation Regression Analysis The SUAM and CSSUAM methods Uncertainty Calculation System & Method (UCSM) Law of propagation of error Fuzzy sets Interval analysis GRS-method to quantify uncertainties Response Surface Method (RSM) Simple random sampling (SRS) Latin hypercube sampling Sample size justification First-order second-moment analysis Probabilistic uncertainty of input parameters Analytical-statistical simulation approach (ASSA)

Bayesian Model
etc.

UNCERTAINTY IN LEVELIZED COST

The quantitative analysis performed shows that the considered scenarios are statistically indistinguishable (90% confidence intervals of uncertainty of the levelized cost for various scenarios overlap). This suggests that it is impossible to make definitive judgments about the prospects of one or other structure on economic indicators, taking into account the existing uncertainties in the unit cost data.
The structure of nuclear power Uranium resources are not limited, twocomponent structure of nuclear power Uranium resources are limited (1.2 million tons), two-component structure of nuclear power Levelized cost, cents (kWh) 1.66 0.185 1.76 0.143

density distribution

Nuclear power structures for mean cost values 20 unit costs were perturb independently (all NFC and investments cost) Uniform probability distribution was chosen 100 scenarios were generated according to Wilks formula

RISK OF UNDERESTIMATING FUTURE TECHNOLOGY COSTS - STOCHASTIC APPROACH

The stochastic approach captures the risk of underestimating future technology costs.

The strategies derived with the stochastic approach possess the required technological diversity without exogenous flexibility constraints. They also have a more robust structure with respect to present uncertainties concerning future parameters. The strategies derived with the stochastic model extension are less costly than strategies obtained on the basis of a purely deterministic model.

Implementation of stochastic approach for optimization of nuclear power leads to Diversification of nuclear power structure

Shift to more advanced nuclear technology (from BN-K-1 and 2 towards BN-K-3)

This result looks more reasonable from expert viewpoint

CONCLUSION
Lack of common methodologies for decision-making in multi-criteria formulation in the nuclear technology efficiency assessment field and, in particular, in the area of innovative fast reactors and related fuel cycles cost assessments, complicates the procedure of formulating a coordinated vision of a preferable technological and institutional solutions, balanced on different benefits and risks. Wide application of MCDM techniques allow searching for compromises between the conflicting factors that determine the nuclear technology efficiency and calculating corresponding trade-off rates; carrying out comparative multi-criteria analysis of alternatives and choosing, ranking, sorting corresponding options. Uncertainties analysis based on state-of-the art methods will provide better grounds for judgments and enable the decision maker to reach a conclusion regarding the stability of results.

Thank you for attention

PROPOSALS
Based on the understanding that the main activities in the field of fast reactors and related fuel cycle facilities with improved economic characteristics should be focused on (i) gathering the best practices on enhancement of economic characteristics (the main issues, technical features and solutions on different levels, reactor concepts and designs), (ii) formulation of recommendations on capital and energy production costs reduction, improving the economic competitiveness and investment attractiveness, (iii) arrangement of conditions for providing systematic implementation of outcomes in regular R&D practices, following specific proposals may be put forward: To organize platform for communication and systematic joint activities between technology developers and experts in efficiency assessment techniques for providing finding of quantitative proven technical and technological solutions on economic characteristics enhancement. To review and revise approaches and tools for the cost assessment of fast reactors and associated nuclear fuel cycles and forming on their base the structured and practical oriented toolbox with detailed recommendation on its applications for R&D involved parties. To stimulate development of necessary educational and training resources on issue (curriculums, textbooks, lecture courses, etc.) for providing effective knowledge transfer to the next generation technology developers (students of nuclear specialties, researchers, etc.).