Fuzzy Clustering and Extreme Weather/Climate in Indonesia

Plato M.Siregar1) and The Houw Liong2)

1
) Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, ITB
2
) Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, ITB

Abstract

Extreme weather/climate in Indonesia is influenced by three cycles: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Sunspot Numbers and Indian
Ocean Dipole Mode (IOD). East Indonesian regions are dominantly influenced by ENSO. During a typical Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IOD)
event the weakening and reversal of winds in the central equatorial Indian Ocean lead to the development of unusually warm sea surface
temperatures (SST) in the western Indian Ocean. IOD negative means wet condition along the coast of Sumatra (west Indonesians regions)
Precipitation in Pontianak regions (middle Indonesian regions) correlated strongly with sunspot numbers (solar activity cycle).
Fuzzy c-means is used to classify regions that are influenced strongly by sunspot numbers (solar activities), IOD, and ENSO cycles. This
method is based on fuzzy set as fuzzy c-partition of three cycles above and as cluster center. Fuzzy c-partition matrix for grouping a collection of
n data set in to c classes, we define object function for fuzzy as Euclidian distance. The results show that Jakarta region is similar 0.6 to solar
cycle, below 0.5 to IOD cycle, and 0.5 to ENSO cycle.
This study also explores the refined classifications and its physical interpretations.

Presented in KAGI-21, The International Workshop on Regional Models for Prediction of Tropical Weather and Climate, Bandung , 2006.
 Solar Activities and Extreme Climate

The results of researches in Indonesian regions have shown the existence of correlations among sun activities with Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation, surface temperature, rainfall, tree ring, and isobar height of atmosphere layers (Ratag, 1994, 1999). Indonesia passed by equator
hence becomes a source of sensible heat that plays an important part in global circulations. Latent heat will be released when aqueous vapour
turn into clouds, especially when strong convective atmosphere of inter tropical convergence zone residing above Indonesian region.
Winter Monsoon in Northern Hemisphere (Asian Monsoon) and Southern Hemisphere (Australian Monsoon) influenced by spreading of
source or complex hot release on Asia and its surrounding. Now, it has been revealed that Indonesian regions are keys in Southern Oscillation.
Indonesia is passed by equator which means it is warm and heavy rainfall. It is an important area in world in cases of tropical-equatorial
convection process and atmosphere circulation is very different from extra-tropics area (Ratag, 1999).
The seasonal weather process tend to be modulated by long-range weather cycle, for example ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and
QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) related to mechanism eleven annual year or its harmonic not yet been known as detail. Murakami et al had
tried to cluster the climate regions of Indonesia as follows: SEAM (South East Asia Monsoon), MC (Maritime Continent), and NAIM (North
Australia-Indonesia Monsoon) base on outgoing long wave radiation patterns.
If we consider the influence of solar activity average to cluster rainfall patterns on Indonesian regions then they correspond to patterns of
monthly rainfall average as in figure 1, but if we have to consider ten to twelve year variations in solar activities to know extreme climate then
clustering has to be based on yearly rainfalls as the time series of rainfalls show that in middle Indonesia rainfall patterns are mainly influenced
by sunspot cycle ( figure 2), in East Indonesia are mainly influenced by ENSO cycle (figure 3) and on West Indonesia are mainly influenced by
IOD cycle (figure 4)
Figure 1. Clustering of climate over Indonesian regions based on monthly rainfall
 Pontianak Region
Correlation Sunspot vs Precip =0.88

200 200
150

Precipitation
150

Numbers
Sunspot
100
100
50
50 0
0 -50

1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
Years

ave-sunspot ave-precip

Figure 2 Pontianak cycle

 Sun spot Number Sunspot Number
0,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00

0,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00
1948 1948

1950 1950

1952 1952

1954 1954
Lanina

Negative
1956 1956

1958 1958

1960 1960

1962 1962

1964 1964

1966 1966
Elnino

Positive
1968 1968

1970 1970

1972 1972

1974 1974

1976 1976
Years

Years
sspot

1978 1978
sspot

Figure 4 IOD cycle

Elnino-Lanina Years

Figure 3 ENSO cycle

1980 1980
1982 1982
1984 1984
1986 1986
1988 1988
Positive-Negative of Indian Dipole Mode Years

1990 1990
1992 1992
1994 1994
1996 1996
1998 1998
2000 2000
2002 2002
Influences of three cycles and Fuzzy Clustering

We use fuzzy c-means method with three seeding regions for initial matrix on Jayapura regions for East Indonesia, Bukittingi regions for
West Indonesia, and Pontianak regions for middle Indonesia. This method is based on fuzzy set as fuzzy c-partition of three cluster centers.
Fuzzy c-partition matrix for grouping a collection of n data set in to c classes, we define object function for fuzzy as Euclidian distance. The
result in figure 5 shows that Jakarta region is similar 0.6 to solar cycle, below 0.5 to IOD cycle, and 0.5 to ENSO cycle.

Fuzzy c-means Algorithm

1. Fix c (2≤c≤ n) and select a value for parameter m’ ,initialize the partition matrix U(0), each step in this algorithm will labeled r, where
r=0,1,2,..
2. Calculate the c centers {vi(r)} for each step.
3. Update the partition matrix for rth step, U (r) as follow:
−1

 (r ) 
2 /(m'−1) 
   
 c d 
µ (r +1) =  ∑  ik   for I = Φ
ik  j =1 (r )   k
  d jk  
   
4. If U
( r +1)
− U ( r ) ≤ ε ,stop; otherwise set r=r+1 and return to step 2
n m'
∑ µik .x
kj
vij = k =1n
m'
∑ µik
5. Calculate the similarities of the c center : k =1
Figure 5 Fuzzy c-partition of three cluster center.
 Figure 6 Fuzzy c-partitions of four cluster centers

If we use fuzzy c-means method with four centers for initial matrix, then result that Jakarta region is similar 0.7 to solar cycle, 0.8 to IOD
cycle, and 0.8 to Surabaya climate region. From five centers or more it will not get better result.
 Conclusion

If solar activity average is used to cluster rainfall pattern on Indonesian regions then they influence monthly average rainfall, but if we have
to consider 11-year variation of solar activities to know extreme climate then clustering has to be based on yearly rainfall. The rainfall of middle
Indonesia is strongly correlated with sunspot numbers, on East Indonesia the rainfall is influenced by ENSO cycle, and on West Indonesia the
rainfall is influenced by IOD cycle The result shows that for three centers, the rainfall cycle of Jakarta region is similar 0.6 to solar cycle, below
0.5 to IOD cycle, and 0.5 to ENSO cycle. The use of fuzzy c-means method with four centers get a result that rainfall cycle in Jakarta region is
similar 0.7 to solar cycle, 0.8 to IOD cycle, and 0.8 to rainfall cycle in Surabaya region.

Acknowledgement

This research is sponsored by RUT XI.3, KMNRT.

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