Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
10 September 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Unde r V a lue d ......................................................................6
Chemicals
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ................................................................................... 15
Transport
Under Valued ....................................................................................... 15
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
www.intellisys.uk.com
10 September 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
10 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Page 5 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
445.00
300.80
455.40
Neutral
Buy
Target
612
Beta
0.70
CHEMRING GROUP
312.00
217.00
360.60
Neutral
Buy
372
0.67
COBHAM
297.20
190.10
307.70
Neutral
Neutral
302
0.82
MEGGITT
545.00
366.20
562.00
Neutral
Neutral
532
1.25
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1134.00
812.14
1240.00
Neutral
Neutral
1151
0.98
SMITHS GROUP
1343.00
1011.00
1397.00
Neutral
Sell
1165
0.76
1889.00
1505.00
1981.00
Neutral
Sell
1724
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
347.70
201.00
354.00
Neutral
Neutral
342
1.96
INCHCAPE
612.00
353.30
645.00
Neutral
Neutral
642
1.41
LOOKERS
121.75
68.75
128.50
Neutral
Sell
113
1.22
33.50
13.50
33.50
Neutral
Buy
44
1.04
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
299.55
207.75
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-839
1.96
701.10
563.70
769.90
Neutral
Buy
859
1.19
76.78
37.01
77.14
Sell
Sell
1.88
340.00
253.00
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-113
1.39
STANDARD CHARTERED
1455.50
1380.00
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3408
1.67
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
552.00
432.20
588.50
Neutral
Sell
485
0.58
DIAGEO
1972.00
1672.50
2136.50
Sell
Neutral
2156
0.51
SABMILLER
3085.00
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4196
0.89
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALENT
374.70
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Buy
485
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
319.10
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
594
1.11
CARCLO
410.50
342.75
501.00
Neutral
Sell
156
0.74
2640.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3352
1.05
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
251.50
204.20
275.00
Neutral
Buy
329
1.07
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2954.00
2190.00
2974.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4594
1.44
VICTREX
1652.00
1322.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1395
1.16
SYNTHOMER
238.70
146.00
238.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
425
1.05
ZOTEFOAMS
197.50
186.50
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
319
1.00
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10 September 2013
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
129.00
77.50
129.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
287
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
263.60
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1143
0.82
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
328.20
158.80
355.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
631
1.67
0.96
0.55
BELLWAY
1386.00
913.00
1502.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2956
2173.00
1387.00
2340.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3575
0.55
BOOT (HENRY)
191.50
123.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
376
0.74
1.07
770.50
487.00
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1484
CARILLION
303.40
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1597
1.06
CLARKE (T)
61.25
40.00
62.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
400
0.76
273.00
226.25
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1169
0.50
CRH
COSTAIN GROUP
1449.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
925
1.03
GALLIFORD TRY
1023.00
661.50
1023.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3056
0.93
KELLER
1139.00
519.00
1161.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2469
1.28
KIER GROUP
1620.00
1106.00
1620.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5526
0.99
70.75
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
234
1.08
1.33
164.00
85.00
165.00
Neutral
Buy
212
712.00
508.00
712.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4692
0.70
19.00
11.25
19.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
63
1.02
NORCROS
1173.00
685.75
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2062
0.99
REDROW
PERSIMMON
236.00
149.70
255.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
471
0.84
SIG
186.90
99.00
188.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
547
1.68
43.50
43.00
287.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4364
0.89
105.90
54.30
113.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
235
1.58
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1606.00
1030.00
1713.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4563
1.94
WOLSELEY
3370.00
2635.64
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6222
1.30
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1383.00
999.50
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
1084
0.67
667.00
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
910
1.12
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
132.50
105.50
138.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
282
1.25
INVENSYS
496.00
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
281
1.42
LAIRD
223.60
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
456
2.06
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1510.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1332
1.11
RENISHAW
1796.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2140
1.28
SPECTRIS
2316.00
1549.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2901
1.51
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
115.50
65.00
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-450
0.76
TT ELECTRONICS
187.00
114.00
191.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
441
1.61
XAAR
760.00
230.00
898.00
Neutral
Sell
431
1.08
DIALIGHT
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Target
Beta
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+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
124.25
54.25
125.00
Sell
Buy
149
1.14
BODYCOTE
661.00
345.10
662.50
Neutral
Neutral
643
1.59
CASTINGS
437.50
291.00
443.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
679
0.93
VESUVIUS
482.80
263.19
483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1212
2.23
FENNER
370.90
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
564
1.47
HALMA
573.50
410.40
578.00
Neutral
Sell
414
0.79
436.00
354.75
480.00
Neutral
Buy
552
1.31
1492.00
900.00
1504.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4396
1.39
307.10
220.30
318.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
505
1.89
2783.00
2229.00
3037.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4319
1.01
279.00
185.90
288.40
Neutral
Sell
251
1.66
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
59.00
35.40
76.91
Neutral
Sell
48
SPIRAX-SARCO
3043.00
1932.53
3076.00
Neutral
Sell
2146
0.81
VITEC GROUP
637.50
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
490
1.34
WEIR GROUP
2279.00
1676.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2219
1.45
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
421.20
392.10
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
785
0.45
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
291.70
248.60
296.90
Neutral
Buy
391
0.37
SAINSBURY (J)
392.80
321.90
398.70
Neutral
Buy
476
0.55
TESCO
367.25
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
197
0.67
85.00
27.25
100.50
Neutral
Sell
54
0.79
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1818.00
1267.00
2031.00
Neutral
Sell
1648
0.59
CRANSWICK
1162.00
732.50
1178.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1764
0.31
DAIRY CREST
490.00
332.90
528.50
Neutral
Sell
390
0.88
DEVRO
331.70
289.90
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
503
0.36
PREMIER FOODS
149.75
59.75
149.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
253
1.23
779.50
639.00
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1331
0.65
2437.00
2235.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2170
0.50
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
26.75
22.88
29.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
40
0.67
557.00
266.40
577.00
Neutral
Sell
479
0.50
1635.00
1000.00
1635.00
Neutral
Sell
1282
1.29
680.50
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
367
0.87
46.80
18.70
46.88
Neutral
Neutral
49
1.46
248.00
108.00
248.00
Neutral
Sell
68
1.04
31.00
22.75
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
116
1.03
HALFORDS GROUP
393.70
250.00
405.20
Neutral
Buy
536
0.71
JD SPORTS FASHION
975.00
670.00
977.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1834
0.51
DARTY
Target
Beta
79.00
39.00
88.25
Neutral
Buy
117
1.22
KINGFISHER
413.20
262.20
413.20
Sell
Buy
469
0.90
500.50
356.80
500.50
Sell
Buy
671
0.61
73.00
45.00
73.00
Neutral
Neutral
77
0.95
440.00
202.00
492.75
Neutral
Sell
167
0.36
NEXT
5075.00
3320.00
5075.00
Sell
Neutral
5575
0.59
TED BAKER
1961.00
899.00
1973.00
Neutral
Sell
1011
0.57
80.50
46.00
89.75
Neutral
Neutral
79
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
153.50
130.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
130
0.38
CONSORT MEDICAL
858.50
660.50
860.00
Neutral
Sell
619
0.35
OPTOS
156.25
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Buy
179
1.18
764.50
638.00
800.00
Neutral
Sell
640
0.40
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
770.00
601.00
794.50
Neutral
Neutral
754
0.31
HEADLAM GROUP
396.00
295.00
415.00
Neutral
Sell
332
0.89
80.50
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
113
0.69
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
917.50
549.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
302
0.69
CSR
517.50
308.10
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1593
1.13
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
63.50
30.75
83.25
Neutral
Sell
56
0.93
287.10
235.10
613.50
Neutral
Buy
334
1.04
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
133.50
118.00
170.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
262
0.90
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
165.50
140.00
226.25
Neutral
Sell
-193
0.93
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1259.00
1019.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-449
0.52
AMLIN
379.60
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1500
0.38
BEAZLEY
204.60
162.20
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
932
0.52
CATLIN GROUP
473.00
455.30
552.50
Neutral
Neutral
465
0.23
HISCOX
630.00
463.32
660.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1867
0.42
891.50
723.00
949.50
Neutral
Buy
1203
0.30
120.40
107.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
710
0.35
NOVAE GROUP
509.50
345.00
518.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3359
0.35
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2350.00
2125.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3506
0.95
ENTERPRISE INNS
150.40
59.00
152.20
Neutral
Sell
112
1.65
TUI TRAVEL
347.40
226.60
401.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
721
0.96
920.00
700.50
969.00
Neutral
Sell
609
0.27
GREENE KING
842.50
586.00
897.50
Neutral
Sell
625
0.89
LADBROKES
196.10
171.00
243.10
Neutral
Buy
262
0.90
1884.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1672
1.09
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
554.50
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
585
1.36
458.10
283.20
458.10
Sell
Sell
275
0.98
114.20
101.30
156.00
Neutral
Sell
60
1.28
13.50
6.15
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
75
1.15
159.10
130.70
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
572
0.97
0.66
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
560.00
352.00
570.00
Neutral
Sell
389
WETHERSPOON (JD)
729.00
454.50
767.00
Neutral
Sell
690
0.54
WHITBREAD
3216.00
2236.00
3303.00
Neutral
Sell
2183
0.98
WILLIAM HILL
416.60
286.79
494.50
Neutral
Sell
256
0.84
MARSTON'S
161.60
113.00
164.50
Neutral
Sell
13
1.15
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
399.80
294.10
404.90
Neutral
Sell
369
1.18
CHESNARA
271.75
176.50
271.75
Sell
Strong Buy
522
0.61
193.80
131.40
201.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
491
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
187.80
166.10
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
394
1.55
PRUDENTIAL
1137.00
801.50
1232.00
Neutral
Neutral
1178
1.69
610.00
357.70
641.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6621
0.83
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
10 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
142.00
102.00
144.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
0.40
843.50
709.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.46
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
42.00
31.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.06
804.00
451.25
835.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3556
1.06
1200.00
747.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5566
0.93
INFORMA
529.00
380.50
541.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.64
ITE GROUP
291.80
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Buy
201
1.46
ITV
177.40
85.65
177.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.46
1.21
JOHNSTON PRESS
14.25
5.20
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1282.00
1119.00
1350.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
0.65
98.00
43.25
99.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.85
289.00
269.00
289.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.14
35.38
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.52
STV GROUP
229.50
85.50
229.50
Neutral
Sell
240
0.82
ST.IVES
160.50
76.25
170.00
Neutral
Sell
159
1.49
TRINITY MIRROR
127.00
40.75
127.00
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.58
UBM
720.00
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
1.34
190.00
106.50
196.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.83
1252.00
788.00
1252.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.25
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1594.50
1207.00
2084.00
Neutral
Sell
1306
1.85
200.00
161.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
213
1.09
ANTOFAGASTA
891.50
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Neutral
859
1.42
1907.00
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2996
1.49
GLENCORE XSTRATA
321.30
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
1050
#NA
LONMIN
342.10
240.84
380.10
Sell
Buy
466
2.05
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4914.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2926
0.48
RIO TINTO
3130.50
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2579
1.55
961.50
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2846
2.29
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
VEDANTA RESOURCES
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1217.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
911
0.84
BP
444.10
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1011
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
275.30
251.80
297.00
Neutral
Sell
-33
1.33
9.15
7.15
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
115
0.81
834.00
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
581
1.35
69.50
48.50
81.50
Neutral
Sell
-61
1.33
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
367.10
321.30
400.20
Neutral
Buy
415
1.49
2144.50
2098.00
2365.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8411
0.83
408.90
319.90
410.10
Neutral
Buy
471
0.52
1059.00
977.00
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
710
1.07
798.50
720.50
915.50
Neutral
Sell
734
1.44
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
10 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
126.25
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
278
0.83
PZ CUSSONS
426.20
297.20
426.20
Neutral
Sell
347
0.71
4364.00
3565.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4431
0.31
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.52
0.36
3.58
Buy
Strong Buy
231
0.91
3116.50
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
180004
0.49
BTG
368.00
307.30
397.90
Buy
Strong Buy
6259
0.70
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
717.00
558.50
780.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
48284
0.18
1640.00
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
36248
0.50
2.10
1.33
2.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
74
0.53
66.25
52.50
637.50
Neutral
Sell
-183
0.90
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
PHYTOPHARM SUSP - 21/05/13
SHIRE
Target
Beta
2442.00
1727.00
2445.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
42802
0.69
SKYEPHARMA
84.00
43.50
100.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14481
0.55
VERNALIS
27.13
19.38
27.13
Neutral
Strong Buy
362
0.84
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
415.20
311.60
445.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
722
1.18
BRITISH LAND
557.50
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Buy
826
1.05
2274.00
1907.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5187
1.24
519.50
439.90
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1221
1.06
HAMMERSON
486.20
448.60
554.00
Neutral
Buy
554
1.27
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
INTU PROPERTIES
307.00
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
571
1.14
893.50
761.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1785
1.16
27.38
24.25
40.00
Neutral
Sell
-175
0.81
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
112.50
103.20
118.70
Neutral
Sell
-10
0.34
MCKAY SECURITIES
156.25
131.50
159.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
283
0.65
439.00
325.00
454.50
Neutral
Sell
234
0.37
337.00
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
104
0.26
43.25
30.69
45.00
Neutral
Sell
-395
0.62
SEGRO
292.50
221.60
313.60
Neutral
Sell
-327
1.82
SHAFTESBURY
580.00
520.00
668.00
Neutral
Buy
861
1.04
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
195.00
177.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
-5
1.04
WORKSPACE GROUP
430.60
250.75
475.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1460
1.02
www.intellisys.uk.com
10 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
315.50
210.90
365.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
725
39.75
22.75
42.00
Neutral
Sell
-49
0.56
CLS HOLDINGS
1169.00
656.50
1260.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2887
0.73
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
3945.00
2706.00
4179.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7023
0.47
188.50
143.00
209.00
Neutral
Neutral
192
0.98
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
Target
Beta
0.73
GRAINGER
172.90
100.00
187.50
Neutral
Sell
109
1.57
HELICAL BAR
275.75
178.00
302.50
Neutral
Sell
198
0.83
33.00
21.00
33.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
225
0.63
6075.00
4350.00
6512.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14343
0.68
84.75
51.00
92.00
Sell
Sell
-195
1.02
RAVEN RUSSIA
73.25
61.50
79.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
208
1.52
632.50
391.20
664.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2141
0.69
90.50
71.50
90.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
382
0.32
SAVILLS
SMART (J)
ST MODWEN PROPS.
301.00
193.10
333.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
610
1.63
UNITE GROUP
356.00
246.00
403.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1630
1.78
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
123.00
109.60
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
127
0.66
2452.00
1884.39
2588.15
Neutral
Sell
1495
1.52
COMPUTACENTER
538.00
333.29
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1180
0.90
KOFAX
353.50
260.75
367.25
Neutral
Sell
309
1.04
AVEVA GROUP
INNOVATION GROUP
Target
Beta
28.25
20.00
30.25
Neutral
Sell
22
0.81
759.50
541.11
812.50
Neutral
Buy
885
0.81
PHOENIX IT GROUP
157.25
130.00
184.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
252
0.73
84.75
64.00
85.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
239
0.54
2162.00
1275.00
2190.00
Neutral
Neutral
2188
0.77
344.40
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
440
0.69
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
369.20
288.00
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1190
1.12
BREWIN DOLPHIN
265.00
153.20
283.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
631
0.69
8675.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
91672
0.85
464.50
260.00
474.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1379
0.93
0.65
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
CHARLES TAYLOR
Target
Beta
197.00
155.00
197.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1584
1108.00
820.50
1108.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4644
0.85
95.95
90.00
110.40
Neutral
Sell
69
0.86
5.63
0.57
5.63
Sell
Sell
-124
0.61
HENDERSON GROUP
HELPHIRE GROUP
179.00
107.20
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
778
1.44
ICAP
417.80
280.80
417.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
792
1.07
451.40
287.20
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2050
1.70
INVESTEC
429.30
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1579
1.56
1612.00
930.00
1622.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8498
1.13
89.05
71.80
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4715
1.39
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1586.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5320
0.71
SCHRODERS
2422.00
1482.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7915
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1948.00
1176.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
10591
1.28
www.intellisys.uk.com
10 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
267.50
157.75
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
871
0.83
AGGREKO
1605.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4217
1.14
AMEC
1050.00
965.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3371
1.11
653.50
322.90
730.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1007
1.64
1156.00
910.00
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2660
0.49
565.00
371.50
604.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2393
0.80
1357.00
1009.00
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2835
0.50
UK MAIL GROUP
620.00
233.50
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1690
0.42
CAPITA
988.00
713.00
1057.00
Neutral
Sell
213
0.54
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
56.25
34.54
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
488
0.83
COMPASS GROUP
847.50
671.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2015
0.75
BERENDSEN
906.50
540.00
933.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3405
1.08
DE LA RUE
1046.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Buy
1463
#NA
DIGNITY
1470.00
902.82
1567.68
Neutral
Strong Buy
3097
0.25
DIPLOMA
644.50
435.00
651.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1545
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
273.00
200.00
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
943
0.98
ESSENTRA PLC
792.00
500.50
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1406
1.14
G4S
258.80
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
894
0.47
HAYS
109.80
75.20
109.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
465
1.03
HOMESERVE
263.90
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
988
0.89
INTERSERVE
565.00
349.10
574.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3743
1.25
3349.00
2697.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4859
0.80
49.00
31.25
50.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
117
1.10
0.57
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
26.50
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
220
MENZIES (JOHN)
783.00
573.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1827
1.41
479.80
346.40
480.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
855
1.36
MITIE GROUP
288.50
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1076
0.52
46.50
33.75
139.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
721
0.31
OFFICE2OFFICE
1104.00
702.00
1185.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2232
0.75
PREMIER FARNELL
PAYPOINT
226.20
165.50
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
731
1.41
REGUS
184.00
96.00
193.40
Neutral
Sell
57
1.38
RENTOKIL INITIAL
107.60
81.30
107.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
274
1.26
REXAM
501.00
425.22
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1800
0.84
RICARDO
498.75
349.63
498.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
1696
0.90
ROBERT WALTERS
288.50
176.25
288.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1045
1.15
RPC GROUP
470.90
378.00
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1549
0.81
RPS GROUP
260.10
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1015
1.51
SERCO GROUP
552.50
535.00
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2408
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
97.75
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
271
1.49
SPEEDY HIRE
60.00
26.25
64.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
312
1.18
191.00
90.25
202.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
570
0.65
70.00
40.50
70.00
Sell
Strong Buy
337
0.90
VP
449.00
313.00
451.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2333
0.79
WYG
100.00
48.50
103.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
628
0.82
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
343.00
212.50
344.00
Neutral
Buy
429
0.89
40.87
34.22
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
81
0.67
733.50
542.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
270
0.53
89.50
68.25
89.50
Neutral
Buy
121
1.20
1354.00
821.00
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
821
0.05
210.40
154.45
213.20
Neutral
Sell
110
0.51
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
10 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
315.40
195.70
318.80
Neutral
Sell
240
1.22
454.00
350.00
460.00
Neutral
Buy
609
1.06
CLARKSON
2024.00
1150.00
2024.00
Sell
Sell
1370
0.86
EASYJET
1267.00
556.50
1448.00
Neutral
Sell
889
0.77
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
118.90
92.00
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
290
0.88
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1131.00
727.00
1131.00
Neutral
Sell
813
0.72
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1510.00
1220.00
1595.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2807
0.97
NATIONAL EXPRESS
271.70
164.50
273.70
Neutral
Sell
256
1.39
NORTHGATE
395.00
220.75
395.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
665
1.34
STAGECOACH GROUP
321.60
265.90
337.60
Neutral
Buy
456
0.97
WINCANTON
105.00
43.75
105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
245
0.95
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
395.80
310.80
395.80
Neutral
Buy
575
0.50
NATIONAL GRID
737.00
678.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
969
0.45
PENNON GROUP
723.50
598.00
749.50
Neutral
Sell
638
0.63
SSE
1559.00
1358.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2297
0.40
SEVERN TRENT
1689.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1475
0.37
673.00
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Buy
745
0.49
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
10 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
no event will Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be
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