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First Capital Equities (Private) Limited

Market Indices
ASI S&P SL20

10th 2013 16th September August 2013


Market Performance
3,600 3,400 3,200

Daily
09.09.2013 5,605 3,132 323.7 143.5 36.3 229 15.9 2,309 17.1 2.8 2.1

6,000 5,800 5,600


ASI S&P SL20

MARKET WATCH

5,400
04/09/2013 05/09/2013 06/09/2013 09/09/2013 10/09/2013

3,000

ASPI S&P SL 20 Turnover (mn) Foreign Purchases (mn) Foreign Sales (mn) Traded Companies Market PER (X) Market Cap (LKR bn) Market Cap (US$ bn) Dividend Yield (%) Price to Book (X)

10.09.2013 5,667 3,151 629.7 87.0 373.8 228 16.1 2,334 17.3 2.8 2.2

%Chg. 1.1 0.6 94.5 -39.4 929.8 -0.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 1.0

Market Outlook
The market closed modestly up with the ASPI increasing 1.1% to end the trading session at 5667. Turnover recorded LKR629.7 mn with trading in John Keells Holdings and Ceylon Guardian Investment Trust accounting for 66% of the days total. Gainers marginally offset losers with Environmental Resources Investments(W003), Environmental Resources Investments(W006) and Ceylon Leather(W0013) rising by 33.3%, 25.0% and 20.0% and offsetting declines in Royal Palms Beach Hotels, Kahawatte Plantations and Lanka Ceramic which fell by 8.7%, 7.7% and 5.4% respectively. Meanwhile, World shares climbed to a near one-month high and oil and government bonds slipped, helped by receding expectations of US-led military action against Syria and after better-than-expected Chinese data.
12

Turnover Composition & Net Foreign Flows


18,000

14%

15,000 12,000

LKR Mn

9,000 6,000 3,000 0 YTD MTD WTD

86%

Foreign

Domestic

-3,000

Gainers /Losers (%)


Associated Motor Finance Lanka Ceramic Kahawatte Plantations Royal Palms Beach Hotels Citrus Leisure(W0019) Ceylon Leather(W0013) Env. Resources Invest(W006) Env. Resources Invest(W003)

Market Trajectory Given the fact that most investors would now agree that the potential for short term trading opportunities are markedly limited, selecting medium to longer term investments would depend on a number of parameters, most importantly the strength of the top line and its sustainability. While we do not rule out the importance of earnings as a strong indicator of growth, it is highly important to determine the source of profits, whether a result of top line growth or an increase in other income or a dramatic cut in costs that could have a negative impact on future productivity. Of perhaps even more significance is the sustainability of such earnings. In this respect, while we advise investors to seek quality, both in terms of the top line and the bottom line, we accentuate the need to select stocks that may not only pass the quality test in terms of fundamentals but are also sufficiently liquid.

-5.1 -5.4 -7.7 -8.7 20.0 20.0 25.0 33.3

Significant Trades
400
LKR Mn

300 200 100 0 JKH GUAR COMB NDB

BRICS Performance Vs ASPI (YTD dollarised)


16.0% 8.0% 0.0% -8.0% -16.0% -24.0%

Market Liquidity (Turnover)


800
LKR Mn

600

400
200
04/09/2013 05/09/2013 06/09/2013 09/09/2013 10/09/2013

0
Brazil Russia India China South Africa Sri Lanka

Global Markets
Sri Lanka - ASPI India - Sensex Pakistan - KSE 100 Taiwan Weighted Singapore - Straits Times Hong Kong - Hang Seng S&P 500 Euro Stoxx 50 MSCI Asia Pacific

Index 5667 19,882 22,976


8,209

3,124
22,977

1,672 2,833 136

%Chg. 1.11 3.17 0.6 0.20 1.16 0.99 1.00 1.23 1.35

Interest Rates & Currencies


Prime Lending Rate (Avg. Weighted) Deposit Rate (Avg. Weighted) Treasury Bill Rate (364 Days) Dollar Denominated Bond Rate Inflation Rate (YoY) LKR/US$ (Selling Rate) LKR/EURO (Selling Rate) Gold (USD/oz) Oil (Brent) (USD/barrel)

10.09.2013 11.82% 10.10% 10.56% 5.88% 6.30% 134.67 179.30 1,372.50 113.15

This Review is prepared and issued by First Capital Equities (Pvt) Ltd. based on information in the public domain, internally developed and other sources, believed to be correct. Although all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the contents of the Review are accurate, First Capital Equities (Pvt) Ltd and/or its Directors, employees, are not responsible for the correctness, usefulness, reliability of same. First Capital Equities (Pvt) Ltd may act as a Broker in the investments which are the subject of this document or related investments and may have acted on or used the information contained in this document, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before its publication. First Capital Equities (Pvt) Ltd and/or its principal, their respective Directors, or Employees may also have a position or be otherwise interested in the investments referred to in this document. This is not an offer to sell or buy the investments referred to in this document. This Review may contain data which are inaccurate and unreliable. You hereby waive irrevocably any rights or remedies in law or equity you have or may have against First Capital Equities (Pvt) Ltd with respect to the Review and agree to indemnify and hold First Capital Equities (Pvt) Ltd and/or its principal, their respective directors and employees harmless to the fullest extent allowed by law regarding all matters related to your use of this Review. No part of this document may be reproduced, distributed or published in whole or in part by any means to any other person for any purpose without prior permission.

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