Currencies Daily Report

Thursday September 12, 2013 Thursday|

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday September 12, 2013 Thursday|

Highlights
Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.9 percent in yesterdays trade. UKs Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.7 percent in month of July. UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 32,600 in month of August August. Asian markets are trading on a mixed today on the back of less than expected rise in Japans machinery orders data along with investors await the outcome of Federal Reserves meeting in next week. US Wholesale Inventories increased by 0.1 percent in July as against a decline of 0.2 percent a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on September 11, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI

5913.2 19997.5 15326.6 1689.1 17463.5 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 107.56 1364.10 23.12

0.3 0.0 0.9 0.3 0.8 -1.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.6 0.7

5.4 5.5 2.7 -0.1 0.0 1.4 13.1 -0.1 0.3 -1.9 -0.4

5.4 5.5 -0.1 -0.1 -1.2 1.8 13.5 8.3 0.7 2.3 0.8

10.7 9.3 15.0 17.8 8.5 0.5 -5.6 66.3 10.7 -21.1 -30.4

US Dollar Index
The Dollar Index declined by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, ease in Syria tensions also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of uncertainty over the Feds pullback in its stimulus measures during the meeting in next week. The DX touched an intra-day day low of 81.46 and closed at 81.52 on Wednesday.

Nymex Crude (Oct13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Oct13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

7164.50 102.09

-0.1 0.0

0.4 12.5

-8.7 10.4

-11.2 2.5

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.7 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of easing tension in Syria along with promise from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor regarding more reforms to be taken. Further, selling of dollars from exporters supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments and weakness in the DX in the early part of the trade acted as a positive factor. The currency touched an intra-day high of 62.99 and closed at 63.35 on Wednesday. For the month of September 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.4866.60 th crores ($750.25 million) as on 11 September 2013. Year to date ba basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.65036.40 crores ($12333.50 million) till th 11 September 2013. Outlook In todays trade, appreciation in the Rupee is expected to continue as markets take positive cues from expectations of measures to be announced by RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan. Along with that, FII buying, strong domestic equities and dollar selling by banks will additionally support appreciation in the Rupee. Further, it is estimated that country will use its reserves to buy $4.3 billion of bonds issued by World Bank subject to approval from Cabinet Ministry in todays trade.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on September 11, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Sep13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Sep13 Futures (MCX-SX)

81.52 63.26 63.63 63.61

-0.4 0.9 -0.80 0.80 -0.84 0.84

-0.8 5.7 4.07 4.04

-0.3 -3.5 4.07 4.04

2.6 -12.4 14.71 14.69

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Sep13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for September 12, 2013 Support 63.10/62.70 Resistance 63.80/64.15

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday September 12, 2013 Thursday|

Euro/INR
The Euro witnessed gains of around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trade as positive economic data supported gains in the currency. Further, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor. The Euro touched an intra-day day high of 1.3324 and closed at 1.3309 on Wednesday. Farm Payrolls declined by 0.2 percent in Q2 of 2013. French Final Non-Farm Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to trade higher on the back of upbeat global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX will act as a positive factor. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped or reversal can be seen on account of forecast for decline in indust industrial production data. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Sep13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 83.90/83.50 84.50/84.80 valid for September 12, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on September 11, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Sep 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Sep13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3309 84.19 84.9 84.9

0.3 0.6 0.71 0.73

0.8 4.9 3.88 3.88

0.1 -3.6 3.88 3.88

4.3 -16.0 18.95 18.95

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
GBP (% change) The Sterling Pound appreciated yesterday by 0.5 percent due to weakness in the DX and upbeat global market sentiments. Positive economic data from the region also supported the currency. The currency touched a high of 1.5828 and closed at 1.5815 on Wednesday Wednesday. UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 32,600 in Augus August as against a fall of 36,300 a month ago. Average Earnings Index was at 1.1 percent in July from 2.2 percent in earlier month. Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.7 percent in July with respect to 7.8 percent in prior month. Outlook In todays trade, we expect Pound to trade on a positive note taking cues from upbeat global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX will also act as a supportive factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Sep 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for September 12, 2013 Support 99.80/99.50 Resistance 100.50/100.80

Source: Telequote

as on September 11, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Sep13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Sep 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5815 99.961 100.35

0.52 -0.47 0.47 -0.26 0.26

1.2 -4.59 5.79

2.3 5.94 5.79

-1.1 12.40 41.58

100.32

-0.32 0.32

5.75

5.75

41.54

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday September 12, 2013 Thursday|

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.5 percent yesterday due to favorable economic data from the region. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intraday high of 99.77 and closed at 99.85 in the last trading session. Outlook With sentiments remaining upbeat in the global markets and with sentiments towards Japan becoming bullish due to Olympics, fall in the Yen is expected. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Sep 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for September 12, 2013 Support 63.10/62.70 Resistance 63.60/63.90

JPY (% change)
Last

as on September 11, 2013 Prev day WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Sep13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Sep13 Futures (MCX-SX)

99.85 0.632 9 63.37 63.38

-0.5 -0.57 -0.80 -0.81

0.1 -5.89 -0.21 -0.17

3.1 0.81 -0.21 -0.17

27.6 -11.06 -28.70 -28.67

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on September 12, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Core Machinery Orders m/m ECB Monthly Bulletin Industrial Production m/m Inflation Report Hearings ECB President Draghi Speaks Unemployment Claims Import Prices m/m FOMC Member Dudley Speaks Federal Budget Balance

Japan Euro Euro UK Euro US US US US

5:20am 1:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 5:10pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 11:30pm

0.0% -

2.5% -0.1% 332K 0.6% -155.3B

-2.7% 0.7% 323K 0.2% -97.6B

Medium Medium Medium High High High Medium Medium Medium

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