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Abstract
INRODUCTION
This paper explores how Kenyan politicians use a form of terrorism to gain votes
and power, and describes in some detail the ‘crooks’ that use such techniques. They are a
shrewd and capable lot, and will likely enjoy further political success. Their practiced
strategies include cultivating ethnic animosity, violent gerrymandering, repression, and
miscounting votes.
The vote
The first day of vote counting in the 2007 Kenyan elections did not go well for
President Kibaki and his Party of National Unity (PNU). The ‘Cabinet was [politically]
massacred, the Vice-President humiliated in a constituency contest, and the President
3
[was] trailing by a million votes’.5 Twenty-three members of the Cabinet ended up losing
their seats. The Defense Minister lost to an unknown businessman; a matatu (taxi) driver
defeated another ‘untouchable’ Minister. Most of these casualties were members of the
so-called ‘Mount Kenya mafia,’ Mr Kibaki’s political ‘generals,’ a collection of hardline
Kikuyu leaders notorious for their corruption and arrogance.6 It seemed clear that Mr.
Kibaki, facing challenger Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM),
would be the first Kenyan President to lose an election.
What a difference a day makes. On December 29, Mr. Samuel Kivuitu, the
Chairman of the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK)— appointed by the President—
implausibly announced Kibaki had moved to within 100,000 votes of his challenger, and
made a joke about the electoral numbers being ‘cooked’. The ODM supporters in the
crowd did not find it funny. Rather suspiciously, many results were missing, and Mr.
Kivuitu was not offering convincing explanations. He admitted, for example, that many
electoral agents—and the vote tallies they carried—had simply disappeared.
A few days later, after Mr. Kibaki had been sworn in, Chairman Kivuitu admitted
he did not know who had won the Presidential election, and abdicated responsibility for
4
the votes that the ECK had certified. He only declared Kibaki President, he said,
because PNU supporters ‘put pressure on me.’ He had seen evidence of faked returns,
but lamentably was denied admittance to the tallying center to investigate. He considered
resigning, but did not want to be called a coward.9 Eight months later, however, in the
wake of the humiliating ‘Kriegler’ report on the elections, Kivuitu was more willing to
consider resignation—on the condition that he was paid, in advance, his salary through
2012.10
The ‘Mount Kenya mafia’ and PNU had kept control of the Presidency despite a
tidal wave of anti-incumbent voting. Sixty percent of sitting MPs were defeated, and the
opposition ODM won 99 seats in the new Parliament, to the PNU’s 43. Kibaki’s team
eased him back into office, however, by ignoring certified provincial ballot counts, and
adjusting the vote totals as necessary. Votes for the President from Nairobi kept
increasing, for example, even after the final returns for that city were announced, and
ballot papers materialized without marks for the parliamentary candidates, voting only for
Kibaki.11
International observers were not favorably impressed. Teams from the European
Union, the Commonwealth Observer Group, and the East African Community all
subsequently reported major flaws in the counting of the Presidential votes.12 The report
of the South-African based Independent Review Commission, chaired by Johann
Kriegler, concluded that the elections ‘were a resounding failure,’ and noted it was
impossible to be sure who won, since ‘the recorded and reported results are so inaccurate
as to render any reasonably accurate, reliable and convincing conclusion impossible’.13
Kenyan law provides for a 24 hour period after closing of the polls to lodge any
electoral disputes—such as requests for recounts or checks of ballot papers—to be
submitted to the ECK, which is required to respond within 48 hours. It is only after this
72-hour period that the ECK is authorised to announce the outcome. The leaders of the
PNU, however, were in a hurry. Within 30 minutes of Mr. Kiviutu’s certification of the
fudged numbers, in a procedure ‘irregular, unlawful and void in law,’ Mr. Kibaki was
sworn in at his private residence, without the national anthem or the presence of the
diplomatic corps. What the ceremony lacked in pageantry, however, it more than made
5
The Violence
Before President Kibaki had finished reading the oath of office, the violence had
begun, mostly against Kikuyu peoples.15 The same night that Kibaki was declared
President, the Kenyan government, without legal grounds, banned public rallies and live
news broadcasts.16 Most of the broadcast media were intimidated into suspending their
broadcasts, and there were official shoot-to-kill orders for ‘looters,’ selectively enforced
against political opponents and their communities. Police killed 405 people, in part by
shooting randomly into crowds and at bystanders.17 In Kisumu, a predominantly Luo area
and ODM centre of power, the police were shooting into crowds on 29 December, before
the elections results were even announced.18 In Nairobi, police shot demonstrators ‘on
every day that significant opposition protests attempted to convene’.19 The ‘Report of the
Commission of Inquiry into Post-Election Violence’ (the so-called Waki Report’) later
termed these ‘grossly unjustified … senseless death[s].20
An atrocity at a small church in the Rift Valley became a symbol of the post-
electoral violence. By New Year’s Day, the Kenya Assembly of God Church in Eldoret
was already a refuge for many Kikuyu refugees, chased from their homes and land,
fleeing retribution for the stolen election. There were many such people on the run in the
Rift Valley and elsewhere, who feared marauding bands of infuriated youths from other
tribes. After religious services that day in Eldoret, there appeared outside the church 300
or so young men, armed with machetes and bow and arrows. They hacked down all they
could catch outside, sealed the rest in the church, and set it alight, burning it to the
ground. Thirty-five women and children were killed. Human Rights Watch later
interviewed some of the young men responsible for the atrocity at the Kenya Assembly of
God church in Eldoret. They insisted that they had not meant to kill all their victims, but
6
warned they ‘would murder any of their former Kikuyu neighbours who dared return
home’.21
Waves of ethnic cleansing and reprisal campaigns followed, rife with murder,
pillage, arson, and sexual violence. ‘Luos have gone back to Luo land, Kikuyus to
Kikuyu land, Kambas to Kamba land and Kisiis to Kisii land. Even some of the packed
slums in…Nairobi have split along ethnic lines’22 Entire communities were uprooted: ‘In
many communities around Eldoret every last Kikuyu resident has been chased away and
their homes destroyed behind them. . .’23. Thousands of Kisiis were expelled from at least
twenty towns in the North Rift, accused of voting against Mr Odinga.24 Businesses and
homes has been looted and burned.25. Ethnic cleansing is not a novelty in Kenyan
politics, but the speed and intensity of the massive population displacement (estimated at
350,00026) was unparalleled. These internally displaced persons received an acronym
(IDP) and were suddenly the responsibility of international relief agencies.
Kenyan politicians have often used what the human rights group Article 19 refers
to as ‘informal repression.’ It is an effective strategy to hide human rights violations as
‘tribal clashes,’ and thereby conceal their real nature and provenance, in order to imply
that society itself somehow bears responsibility, rather than the instigators of violence. In
South Africa, for example, during the transition to democracy the police and intelligence
agencies provided training and funding for the sectarian warriors of the Zulu-based
Inkatha Freedom Party. This allowed opponents of democracy to claim that South
African tribes were not ready for democracy.30 This technique is effective, in large part
because the international media often file the news of death and displacement under
‘More Tribal Savagery in Africa’, instead of recognising them as examples of gross
human rights violations or political repression.
President Moi resisted democratic reforms by warning of the tribal violence that
would inevitably result, and then provoked that violence to win the elections he was
forced to hold. To do so, he fostered the notion that true multi-party democracy meant
the reduction in power for the Kalenjin, and a grab for power by other tribes. In
September 1991, a series of pro-Moi rallies in the Rift Valley preached ‘majimbo,’ a
9
Swahili term which can be taken to mean a devolution of central government power or a
type of federalism. However, in Kenya it is most often used politically to refer to a form
of territorial sectarianism, most often directed at Kikuyu in the Rift Valley, seen as
interlopers by tribes with longer residence in the area. Moi supporters wanted an
arrangement in which
President Moi used much the same tactics in the 1997 elections. KANU again
cultivated ethnic tensions ‘to intimidate and disperse ethnic groups perceived to support
the opposition.’ The violence was more widespread, however.34 A similarly suspicious
type of ‘ethnic clashes’ began after the referendum on a new constitution in 2005, and the
reverberating violence never really stopped. By the 2007 Presidential elections, there
were still an estimated 380,000 internally displaced persons from the ethnic cleansing of
the 1990s.35
Violence had been politically institutionalized, and the state security agencies were not
able or willing to stop it.36
Perhaps most ominously, Kibaki’s sectarian and aloof rule allowed the central
tribal rivalry to grow and fester. For nearly four decades, Kenyan politics had often
broken down into a competition between the Bantu-speaking Kikuyu peoples, the largest
ethnic group in Kenya, and the Luo, a group related to the Dinka of southern Sudan.
Smaller Bantu tribes tend to stick politically with the Kikuyu, while some Nilotic and
Nilo-Hamitic tribes—such as the Nandi, Kalenjin and Masai—tend to support Luo
speakers.38 Key policy choices over poverty, corruption, inequality, devolution of power,
and economic growth were in 2007 transformed into tribal competition.
The debate over majimboism never ended, and the subject roared back into
prominence in 2007. In fact, one can see the elections of that year as a referendum on the
subject. President Kibaki and the PNU symbolized the status quo of a centralized, if
corrupt, government. The ODM stood for regionalism, which formally meant an
11
impartial devolution of excessive central government power, but also had a more sinister
meaning. PNU supporters (including those interviewed by the author in December 2007
and January 2008) interpreted majimbo to be a euphemism for a forced ethnic segregation
of Kenya. ‘In the Rift Valley, [it] meant giving Ruto's own Kalenjins the right to make
all local decisions, and expel ethnic minorities back to their own ‘jimbos’ or
homelands’.39
In the 1990s Moi had targeted Kikuyu as ‘alien settlers’ in the Rift Valley, and
stirred up Kalenjin resentment to do so. The same dynamic was in play in 2007, led by
William Ruto. Jackson Kibor of the ODM was quoted at this time as saying that ‘the
Kikuyu community voted for Kibaki. …We want to drive Kikuyus out of Rift
Valley…We will divide Kenya.’40 The current Minister of Wildlife and Tourism
suggested a more specific ‘final solution’ for the Kikuyu. ‘[R]educe them to an Island
like Lesotho [because] that is the language they understand’.41 Kikuyu leaders also
sometimes argued that their people should create such a mini-state based in Central
Province and maintained by force. The difference was that it would be the Kikuyu
conducting the expulsions, instead of being expelled.42
In short, the opposition ODM, led by Raila Odinga, a Luo from Western Kenya,
correctly suspected Kibaki’s government of planning to grab the presidency through a
rigged elections, and to use force to make it stick. Kibaki’s Kikuyu loyalists, in turn, also
with considerable accuracy, accused the ODM of organizing violence and ethnic
cleansing regardless of the election’s outcome, to settle old land scores and deepen their
control of certain electoral districts. When the Kikuyu saw the Luo and Kalenjin
extremists prepare themselves for battle, they did the same.
Kikuyu voters were told the Luo wanted to ‘destroy the country and us along with
it. …[I]n a fight to the last ... the winner would take all and damn the loser.43 The PNU
all but accused the opposition of being aspiring génocidaires, and exaggeration that
contained a grain of truth. One member of President Kibaki’s government, echoing
Daniel Goldhagen’s analysis of the Holocaust, is reported to have characterized ODM
ideology as ‘eliminationist anti-Kikuyu tribalism.’44 According to Kwamchetsi Makokha,
the hate speech directed towards Kikuyu was intense—and the reaction to it equally so.
12
If you set the stage where a single community has isolated itself,
what follows is a feeling of resentment by others, of ‘what’s so
special about you?’ It became a self-fulfilling prophecy.45
Those who foster ethnic violence in order to boost their own electoral fortunes
begin a process that is difficult to stop. Other sub-national communities become unsure
of their own their safety and arm themselves. ‘This very mobilization, however, is seen
as preparation for conflict,’ which in turn increases the possibility of pre-emptive attacks
by well-armed and organized ethnic groups. It is an ethnic security dilemma.46
For months before the Presidential election, the Kenyan press described in detail
the defamatory, hateful, and ethnically-based campaigning. The tools of incitement were
SMS, internet spam, pamphlets, vernacular radio stations, and politicians on the stump.
More than 70 people were killed, for example, in election-related violence and ‘ethnic
clashes’ from July to December 2007.47
It was common knowledge that the Kikuyu Mungiki militia, directed by elements
close to the President, had previously undertaken campaigns to ‘circumcise’ women
forcibly. In 2002, for example, the Mungiki demanded that all women aged between 13
and 65 submit to the traditional Kikuyu female genital mutilation.49 After the elections,
Mungiki members launched reprisals for abuse of Kikuyu citizens by militias from other
ethnic groups. In Naivasha, in attacks beginning on 27 January 2008—and apparently
organized by the top leaders of the PNU—Mungiki members undressed and sexually
assaulted women and girls wearing skirts and trousers.50
minister of Roads Simeon Nyachae, an old lion of Kisii politics and a PNU member,
called a rally in South Mugirango, the constituency of the only ODM supporter in the
area. Nyachae was seated on a dais, with a fellow cabinet member, an assistant minister
and several MPs. Nyachae introduced to the crowd members of the Chinkochoro militia,
who had painted their faces red and were armed for the event. ‘These are the youths who
will protect us during the political campaigns’, he said.51 He then ‘led [the] group of
youths in chanting Gusii songs of war’.52 Reporters for the East African Standard, as
well as several bloggers, wrote that the youths also sang ‘circumcision songs’.53 When
ODM’s rising star William Ruto arrived (there is some dispute about whether he was
invited to the gathering), he and a fellow ODM member were assaulted as they alighted
from their helicopter. Bleeding, Ruto was dragged to safety with only minor injuries; his
companion was hospitalized. Nyachae later denied any untoward behaviour. After all,
the opposition MPs had invaded his gathering. ‘Apologise to who? For what? People
cannot pee on me’, the minster explained.54 Predictably, there were reprisals by ODM
supporters.55
Ethnic terrorism is distinctive from other forms of terrorism in part because of its
likelihood of success. Religious or class-based groups, for example, do not achieve their
utopian aims. Ethnic terrorists, however, launch attacks in order to strengthen ethnic
identity and win advantages for their own group—and often succeed in doing so. The
ethnic cleansing in Kenya has progressively, year by year, achieved its objectives: a
segregated and volatile society peopled by fearful and militant local populations primed
to follow their ethnic leaders, homogenous voting areas, and impunity for the actions of
the perpetrators.
The National Accord, brokered by Kofi Annan in early 2008, offered Kenyans an
opportunity to break this violent cycle of ethnic cleansing with a ceasefire and other
benefits. But it had a tricky caveat.
The African Union’s Panel of Eminent Africans, led by Annan, proposed the
creation of a new position of Prime Minister, to be given to Raila Odinga of the ODM in
view of his evidently strong election result, and two deputy prime ministers. Mr. Kibaki
would be recognized as the President of Kenya. The agreement also increased the
number of Cabinet seats (further bloating the top-heavy nature of the Kenyan executive
branch). So both sides gained: the President and the PNU retained the presidency, and
ODM was rewarded with the post of Prime Minister, thereby increasing its political
power and access to patronage. A potentially more significant element of the accord was
the proposal from Annan to establish a Commission on Inquiry on Post-Election Violence
(CIPEV), however. That commission a few months later released the Waki Report
(based on the name of the commissioner recommending prosecution, investigating the
financiers and organizers of the post-election violence.
Perhaps the Waki Report will become the latest in a long series of official reports
and exposés on violence in Kenya, likely full of incriminating evidence but dismissed by
15
In a novel twist, however, the Waki report gives the Government 60 days to form
a special tribunal to try the suspects it names in a ‘secret list.’ After that time, if the
Government has not acted, these names will be forwarded to the International Court of
Justice (ICC). It appears, however, that once again Kenya’s politicians will ignore the
publication of the details of their crimes, and refuse to cooperate with any domestic or
international prosecution of the criminals.
It seems likely that the Waki Report will become the latest in a long series of
official reports and exposés on political violence in Kenya, full of incriminating evidence
yet dismissed and ignored by politicians as ‘biased’ or ‘hearsay’. According to Pinto
Cabral, such commissioned reports often serve ulterior political motives:
President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga are in a difficult political spot, it
must be admitted. Both originally promised full cooperation with the Waki report, yet
calling Kenyan politicians to account for their crimes is a tricky business. As always, the
major players have their own to protect, and counsel forgetfulness. In William Ruto’s
words, which are often repeated in one form or another by most of the Kenyan political
establishment, “We should not be held hostage of [sic] the past neither should we drive
16
Prime Minister Odinga’s task is complicated by the fact that his erstwhile
campaign lieutenant is now a rival in the next presidential elections, with an ethnic power
base as de facto leader of the Kalenjins. Ruto, for his part, is suspicious that the Odinga
may try to use the Waki Report to marginalize him politically. Indeed, Ruto led demands
from within the Orange Democratic Movement that the government repudiate the Report
in its entirety. After a ‘stormy’ four-hour ODM meeting in October 2008, Raila was
forced to reverse course and declare that the ODM would refuse to allow its members to
be extradited or surrendered to a tribunal outside its territory.63 In any case, the
legislation required to comply with the Waki Report failed to pass Parliament in February
2009, because of deep if largely hidden opposition from both sides of the Coalition.64
The Prime Minister, who did not sound too disappointed in the vote, responded by
saying, “Some things you win, some things you lose.”65
Notes on Contributor
62
‘Ruto: How I won the toughest battle,’ The Nation [Kenya], 8 June 2009,
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/533354/-/view/printVersion/-/hla4v2z/-/index.html
(date accessed: 8 June 2009)
63
Mugonyi, 2008b; Mathenge, 2008.
64
Namunane, B and G Macharia, “Puzzling alliances in fight against Tribunal Bill,” The Nation
65
Namunane, B, ‘Road to Justice Starts’, The Nation [Kenya], 13 February 2009,
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/530142/-/view/printVersion/-/ueuijcz/-/index.html
(date accessed: 8 June 2009).
17
Steve Snow teaches Politics and Government at Wagner College in New York City, and
writes on issues of economic and political development in such journals as Social Science
Quarterly, Military and Political Sociology, Cultural Survival Quarterly, and Research in
Political Economy.
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December 2007
1
Schumpeter, 1946, p. 269.
2
Collier, 2009.
3
Collier, 2009, p. 27.
4
Collier, 2009, p. 39.
5
‘Raila Takes an Early Lead’, 2007.
6
Weru, 2007
7
Ibid.
8
‘Electoral Commission of Kenya Sorts Out Poll Fiasco’, 2007.
9
Mugonyi, 2008; Ongiri, 2008.
10
Wachira, 2008.
11
Butagira & Otieno, 2008; ‘A New Dawn Among the Golf Carts’, 2008; ‘A Twilight Robbery,’ 2008.
12
Kenya National Human Rights Commission, 2008.
13
Independent Review Commission, 2008.
14
Kipkorir, 2008.
15
‘Kenya: Fresh Term for Kibaki As ODM Rejects Results’, 2007.
16
Mwelu, 2008.
17
‘Report of the Commission of Inquiry into Post-Election Violence, 2008, p. 417.
18
Ryu, 2008.
19
Hearing, 2008.
20
‘Report of the Commission of Inquiry into Post-Election Violence’, 2008, p. 417.
21
Some, 2008; Hearing, 2008.
22
Gettleman, 2008.
23
Albin-Lackey, 2008.
24
‘Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place,’ 2008.
25
‘Ethnic Cleansing in Luoland,’ 2008.
26
‘Don't return, refugees warned’, 2008.
27
Byman, 1998.
28
Klopp, 2001.
29
Mulli, 1999.
30
Article 19, 1997.
31
‘Report of the Judicial Commission’, 1999, p. 10.
32
‘Report of the Judicial Commission’, 1999, p. 19.
33
‘Report of the Judicial Commission’, 1999, p pp. 12, 21.
34
Klopp, 2002, p. 15.
35
Mwiandi, 2008.
24
36
Kenya National Human Rights Commission, 2008, p. 50; ‘Report of the Commission of Inquiry into
Post-Election Violence’, 2008, p. 22.
37
Maier, 2008.
38
‘Kenya in Crisis,’ 2008.
39
Gettleman, 2008; Baldauf, 2008.
40
Anyango & Macharia, 2008.
41
Wafula, 2008.
42
Wrong, 2008.
43
Kimani, 2008.
44
Opio, 2008.
45
Wrong, 2008.
46
Byman, 1998.
47
Kenya National Human Rights Commission, 2007.
48
Bii, 2007.
49
‘Rights activists decry Mungiki circumcision threat’, 2002.
50
‘Top Officials Planned Naivasha Chaos’, 2008.
51
Otieno D & C Wafula, 2007.
52
Omanga, 2007.
53
Mochama, 2007.
54
Mochama, 2007.
55
‘Kenya, Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place’, 2008.
56
Okungu, 2007.
57
Kenya National Human Rights Commission, 2007.
58
Dixon, 2008.
59
‘Kenyan Gangs Use Genital Mutilation as Weapon in Post-Election Violence’, 2008.
60
‘The Price of Empowerment’, 2007.
61
In mid-January 2008, one Kikuyu victim of ethnic cleansing said, ‘When they came to my house, they
asked me why we attacked ODM Pentagon member William Ruto in South Mugirango, before they ordered
me to disappear. They took away all my property and torched my house,’ See ‘Kenya, Caught Between a
Rock and a Hard Place’, 2008.
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Pinto, 2008.