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1. Suppose that 10,000 tickets are sold in one lottery and 5,000 tickets are sold
in another lottery. If a person owns 100 tickets in each lottery, find the
following:
(a) P(person does not win the first prize in either lottery)
(b) P(person wins the first prize in at least one of the lotteries)
(c) P(person wins exactly one first prize in the lotteries).
2. Consider an experiment in which a fair coin is tossed until a head is
obtained for the first time. If this experiment is performed three times,
what is the probability that exactly the same number of tosses will be
required for each of the three performances?
3. A die is loaded in such a way that the probability of any particular face
showing is directly proportional to the number on that face. Let X denote
the number showing for a single toss of this die.
(a) What is the probability function pX(x) for X?
(b) What is the probability that an even number occurs on a single roll of
this die?
(c) Suppose that we roll this die five times. What is the probability that
the same number occurs on each of the five rolls?
4. An Internal Revenue Service (IRS) examiner has a file of 30 returns to
examine. Unknown to her, 5 of the returns have errors. Suppose she
randomly selects (without replacement between the selections) returns to
examine from the file.
(a) What is the probability that the first return she selects to examine does
not have an error, but the second return selected does?
(b) What is the probability that the second return she selects to examine
has an error?
(c) What is the probability that the first selected return with an error is the
third one selected?
(d) What is the probability that each of the first three returns selected has
an error? the first four returns? the first five returns? the first six returns?
5. Suppose the IRS examiner in Problem 4 is instructed to examine returns
(from among her thirty returns) until she has found two returns with
errors. Let X represent the total number of returns that she examines.
What is the probability function PX(x) for X?
6. A card is drawn successively at random with replacement between draws
from a pack of 52 cards (no jokers) until an ace or a face card (king, queen,
or jack) is drawn. What is the probability that an ace is drawn before a
face card?
8. A softball team has three pitchers, A, B, and C, with winning percentages
of 0.4, 0.6, and 0.8, respectively. These pitchers pitch with frequency 2, 3,
and 5 out of every 10 games, respectively. In other words, for a randomly
selected game, P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.3, and P(C) = 0.5. Find:
(a) P(team wins a randomly chosen game)
(b) P(A pitched the game | the team won).
9. You have probability .6 and your friend has probability .7 of making any
given free throw. You alternate shooting free throws until the first one is
made, with you shooting first.
(a) What is the probability that the first free throw is made on the fifth
shot?
(b) What is the probability that YOU make the first free throw (anytime)?
(c) Given that the first free throw is made on the seventh shot, what is the
probability that you make it?
(d) Given that the first free throw is made on or before the seventh shot,
what is the probability that you made it?
10. Repeat Problem 9 if your friend shoots the first shot.
11. The accuracy of a medical diagnostic test, in which a positive result
indicates the presence of a disease, if often stated in terms of its sensitivity,
the proportion of diseased individuals that test positive or P(+|Disease),
and its specificity, the proportion of individuals who do not have the
disease and who test negative or P(|No Disease). Suppose that 10% of a
population have a given disease (called the prevalence rate). A diagnostic
test for the disease has 99% sensitivity and 98% specificity. Therefore,
P(+|Disease) = 0.99 P( | No Disease ) = 0.98
P(| Disease) = 0.01 P( + | No Disease ) = 0.02 .
(a) A person's test is positive. What is the probability that the person
actually has the disease?
(b) A person's test is negative. What is the probability that the person
actually does not have the disease? Considering this result and the result
from part (a), would you say that this diagnostic test is reliable? Why or
why not?
(c) Now suppose the disease is rare with a prevalence rate of only 0.1%.
Using the same diagnostic test, what is the probability that the person
who tests positive actually has the disease?
(d) The results from parts (a) and (c) are based on the same diagnostic test
applied to populations with very different prevalence rates. Does this
suggest any reason why mass screening programs should not be
recommended for a rare disease? Explain.