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Algorithms & Computing III Lab 4: Lab Assignment 1

AY 2013/14 S1

4.1. Background. The age distribution of a population was rst mathematically studied a paper published by an English biologist Patrick H. Leslie in 1945. The model described in the paper is now known as the Leslie matrix model. An extension of the Leslie matrix model is the Lefkovitch matrix model. Unlike the Leslie matrix model where each age group spans the same number of years, the age groups in the Lefkovitch matrix model allows for age groups spanning over dierent number of years. This model is widely used to model the population growth of animal and plant species whose fertility and mortality rates depends largely on age. 4.2. Aim. The aim of this lab is to use the Lefkovitch matrix model to study an animal population under the inuence of human activities. 4.3. Objectives. At the end of this lab, students should be able to: (a) Explain the Lefkovitch matrix model. (b) Determine, from a given Lefkovitch matrix, if the population will survive. (c) Determine, from historical data, good approximations of various parameters in the Lefkovitch matrix model. (d) Determine the eect of human activities on the survival of the population. 4.4. Instructions. 1. You must submit your report for this assignment by 12 noon on 9th September, Monday. 2. Your submission will be checked for plagiarism. All parties found involved in plagiarism will be severely dealt with. These include (a) students who copy from another students work or other sources; (b) students who allow their works to be copied. 3. Your submission must be in one PDF le, with all text selectable. In other words, when I use the Select Tool to select all the text in the PDF le, I should be able to copy all the text in the le, except text in plots produced by MATLAB and in mathematical formulas produced by short LaTeX codes. The reason for this is to allow for successful operation of the plagiarism checker. Failure to do so will result in a penalty. 4. Your report will be graded on the following criteria. (a) Organization: Is the report presented in a well-organized and logical manner? (b) Clarity: Are the statements clear and well-structured? (c) Understanding: Does the methodology used demonstrate complete understanding of the problem and related mathematical concepts? (d) Correctness: Does the solution correctly address the problem?

4.5. The Problem. The Wild Turkey in North America is hunted for its meat, eggs and feathers. Its numbers decreased signicantly at the beginning of the 20th century, to as low as 30,000 in the whole of United States due to hunting and loss of natural habitat. Restoration eort since the 1950s has now brought the number of wild turkeys back to an estimate of 7 million. However, there has been a recent observable decline in the wild turkey population in Twin Falls County, Idaho. It has thus been suggested by environmentalists that hunting and logging laws should be further tightened to reduce the harvesting of wild turkeys, and the destruction of their natural habitat. Due to the economic impacts of the tightening of these laws, you (a mathematical ecologist) have been asked to determine their eects on the wild turkey population in Twin Falls County. 4.5.1. The mathematical model. For the purpose of modelling the wild turkey population in Twin Falls County, we classify the turkey hens into three age stages: poults (0 to 1 year), yearlings (1 to 2 years) and adults (at least 2 years). Mortality rates are highest for poults, followed by yearlings and adults. The fertility and mortality rates of wild turkeys within each age stage are very similar to each other. We let spy denote the proportion of poults who survive their rst year to progress into yearlings, and let sya denote the proportion of yearlings who survive their second year to progress into adults. We also let saa denote the proportion of adults who survive each year of their adulthood. We further let fy and fa denote the fertility rate of yearling and adult hens. Therefore the population vector xt+1 in a subsequent year depends on the population vector xt in the current year via xt+1 = Lxt , where L is the Lefkovitch matrix 0 fy fa 0 L = spy 0 . 0 sya saa It can be proved mathematically that in the long run, the year-to-year population growth is 1, where is the largest eigenvalue of the Lefkovitch matrix. Therefore, when the largest eigenvalue is less than 1, the population eventually dies o. On the other hand, when the largest eigenvalue is greater than 1, the population will eventually grow exponentially as long as there are sucient resources to support its growth. 4.5.2. Survival rates. To estimate the survival rates of the wild turkey population in its various age stages, we use historical population numbers collected in the past decade. The wild turkeys born a decade ago were routinely observed, and their numbers over the decade are given in the following table. Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Number of surviving 1232 508 229 120 72 40 22 12 7 4 turkeys born in 2003

From these numbers, we can estimate the survival rates as follows: number aged 1 to 2 years survival rate from poults to yearlings = number aged 0 to 1 year number aged 2 to 3 years survival rate from yearlings to adults = number aged 1 to 2 year and number aged k to k + 1 years number aged k 1 to k years over k = 2, 3, . . . , 9.

survival rate from within adults = average of

4.5.3. Fertility rates. Wild turkeys mate for life during their yearling and adult stages. When mating is nished, a hen searches for nest sites. If nesting is successful, an adult hen usually lays a clutch of about 10 eggs, while a yearling lays a clutch of about 8 eggs. It is estimated that 85% of the eggs hatches, with a 50:50 male to female ratio. If nesting is unsuccessful, a hen may attempt a re-nest. If re-nesting is successful, an adult lays a smaller clutch of about 9 eggs, and a yearling about 6 eggs. In a re-nest, the hatching rate is also estimated to be 85%, again with a 50:50 male to female ratio. It is not observed that hens attempt a second re-nest if the rst is unsuccessful. Generally, an adult hen is more likely to attempt to nest than a yearling. However, it is observed that yearlings are more likely to be successful in their rst nesting attempt than adults. When rst nesting fails, an adult is once again more likely to attempt to re-nest than a yearling. It is now observed that adults have a much higher chance of a successful re-nesting than yearlings, which have rarely been observed to be successful in re-nesting. In summary, the nesting attempt rates and and nesting success rates derived from recent observations are given in the following table. First nesting Re-nesting Nesting Nesting Re-nesting Re-nesting attempt success attempt success rate rate rate rate Yearlings 45% 40% 16% 0% Adults 90% 20% 32% 30% For example, 90% of the adult hens will attempt a rst nesting, of which only 20% will be successful. Among the other 80% which are unsuccessful, only 32% of them will attempt a re-nest, of which only 30% will be successful in re-nesting. Therefore 90% 20% of the adults will be successful at rst nesting, while 90% 80% 32% of the adult will attempt a re-nesting, with 90% 80% 32% 30% of the adult successful in re-nesting. From the above gures, we can compute the fertility rate of a turkey hen as follows. Fertility rate = successful rst nesting rate clutch size hatching rate proportion of females + successful re-nesting rate clutch size hatching rate proportion of females, where successful rst nesting rate = rst nesting attempt rate rst nesting success rate

and successful re-nesting rate = rst nesting attempt rate rst nesting failure rate re-nesting attempt rate re-nesting success rate. 4.5.4. Your tasks. The environmentalists argue that to ensure the long term survival of the wild turkey population in Twin Falls County, changes must be made to the hunting and logging laws so that 1. survival rates of yearling and adult turkeys increase to 130% of their current values, and 2. both rst nesting and re-nesting success rates of yearling and adult turkeys increase to 120% of their current values. The economists generally nd each of the changes proposed by the environmentalists acceptable, if implemented without the other. But they warn that simultaneous enforcement of the proposed changes to the hunting and logging laws will severely hurt the economy of the county. One camp of economists holds the view that changes in hunting laws should be kept at a minimal, at the expense of the logging industry; while another camp holds the direct opposite view. There is a third camp of economists who pushes for a balanced change in both hunting and logging laws. You are asked to perform a study on these proposed changes, and present various scenarios to both environmentalists and economists, by considering a dierent combination of the changes to the hunting and logging laws in each scenario. You should only present scenarios in which the wild turkey population does not eventually die o, since any proposal that does not guarantee the long term survival of the wild turkey population will never be accepted by the environmentalists. At the same time, the changes in the hunting and logging laws should be minimized so that they may be accepted by the economists.