CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY The United State of Americas Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) defines a floodplain as an area adjacent to a river, stream, or waterway that may flood. Floodplains are also areas of low lying land that are subject to inundation by lateral overflow water from rivers or lakes with which they are associated (Junk et al. 1989). Floods are natural processes where rising inland or tidal waters inundate dry land. Over geological timeframe, the erosional and depositional processes that occur during floods create flood plains. Flood plains are valuable natural resource areas that play a major role in ecological function of river and coastal ecosystems. For example, they provide a storage area for flood waters, which reduces downstream erosional forces and improves downstream water quality by removing pollutants from the water. In addition, flood plains allow infiltration and the recharge of ground water aquifers, they also provide critical habitat necessary for the survival of many invertebrate, fish and wild life species (Bolton and Shellberg, 2001). In developed areas, flood plains are a natural extension of streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands that create them. Although flooding should not be seen as an entirely destructive natural phenomenon, historically, the Nile river floods in Egypt has since ancient times to the present serve as an economic life blood of
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that region through irrigation agriculture. However, it is only when human development encroaches on a floodplain that flood damages are induced and humans become concerned about controlling the flooding or questioning why development has been allowed within the floodplain (Mark et al, 2001). In Nigeria, structural growth within floodplains of most riverine communities have induced flooding resulting in loss of lives, properties and lopsidedness in human settlements. It has been noted that serious flood disasters have occurred in Ibadan (1985, 1987, and 1990), Oshogbo (1992, 1996, 2002), Yobe (2000), Akure (1996, 2000,2002, 2004, 2006) and the coastal cities of Lagos, Ogun, Portharcort, Calaba, Uyo, Warri , which have severally experience incidences of floods that have claimed lives and properties worth millions of Naira (Tunde, 2010). To successfully protect the environmental functions of flood plains, minimize or forestall disastrous flood damages and provide land use planners, emergency management agencies and developers with a suitable basis for making decisions, it is necessary to acquire timely and reliable information about flood prone areas. Remote sensing, by virtue of its data transmission capabilities, can provide comprehensive, synoptic, multi-temporal coverage of large areas in real time and at frequent intervals, which are valuable tools for continuous monitoring of atmospheric as well as surface parameters related to floods.

This study intends to explore the vast capabilities of remote sensing and GIS in analyzing land use changes in the floodplain of River Kaduna within the metropolis, in order to mitigate solutions.

1.2

THE RESEARCH PROBLEM Structural developments within river corridors and

floodplains are vulnerable to flood damages. Placing structures in flood prone areas results in a loss of flood storage in flood plains and wetlands and heightens risks to public safety. channelization practices -- such as bank armoring, Moreover, floodwalls, protection of these encroachments often result in the use of river and channel straightening to protect these investments. The removal of vegetation to improve access, and the removal of woody debris from rivers to facilitate human use can increase resource degradation and the propertys susceptibility to flood damages, causing higher risks to public safety (Water Quality Division, 2003). Structural encroachments such as buildings and concrete surfaces increase impervious cover around rivers thereby increasing the rate and volume of runoff and a decrease in the rate of infiltration, all of which can cumulatively contribute to the instability of the river channel. Along River Kaduna floodplain, the current extent of encroachment of infrastructure, homes, businesses, utilities and
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industries and the degree to which productive agricultural land is in close proximity to the river are significant. The floodplain continues to experience development pressures at such an alarming rate. This is not however surprising considering the fact that in recent years, the metropolis have experienced a population explosion and urban expansion partly as a result of the city being previously the capital of the northern region and presently the capital of Kaduna state. The close proximity of the city to Abuja the federal capital of Nigeria, rather than reduce this urban growth, increases the demand for space partly due to the high cost of living in Abuja. There is thus a high demand for land. Consequently the available spaces are so overstretched that areas which were previously considered dangerous and which are very close to the floodplain and in some instances even within the river corridors and floodplain are being used for development. The situation is particularly disturbing around areas such as Ungwar Rimi around low cost, Malali around Kaduna water works, Rafin Guza in Kawo, Kabala and Abubakar Kigo road new extension. The presence of government agencies such as Kaduna State Urban Development Authority ( KASUPDA) which are saddled with the responsibility of ensuring that building codes and regulations are strictly adhered to, do not help matters. Observations have shown that developers are building structures dangerously close to the floodplain all of which increases the severity of hazards and

damage to lives and property when the River overflows its banks during floods. The overall result is the series of flood cases and damages which occur at the peak of the rainy season. For instance devastating floods have occurred in recent years with serious effects which affect especially those investments and structures in close proximity to the floodplain. Several examples and cases abound, a few of which include: in 9 th September 2003 as reported by the United Nations (UN) Humanitarian Affairs division - At least 80,000 people living in and around the northern Nigerian city of Kaduna have been displaced by flooding following torrential rains on a Sunday that forced the Kaduna River to burst its banks. Property worth several hundred thousand dollars was destroyed by the worst floods ever to hit the town, officials said. The most affected districts included Barnawa, Kabala, Nassarawa and Tirkania. There was however no reports of deaths, many homesteads were washed away. Several plots of farmland along the river bank were also submerged. It was assumed to be the worst flood in the last 20 years. In September of 2009, another devastating flood disaster reoccurred, submerging several areas within the metropolis including Kigo road new extension, Nasarawa, Kabala Doki, and Rafin Guza in Kawo. In all these situations the government has always been up and doing in providing succor to the affected victims through the efforts of Agencies such as National Emergency Management

Agency (NEMA) and their state counterpart, it is however instructive to state those efforts are curative. There is thus the need for a standard and comprehensive floodplain restoration and protection in addition to flood management strategies which should also include preventive measures through flood forecasting, flood warning systems, flood frequency analysis, Mitigation through building restrictions and regulations to check encroachment and other human activities. Previous studies have been carried out in Nigeria on floodplains and floods, for instance, studies by Peter et. al. (2012), conducted a Flood Modeling and Vulnerability Assessment of Settlements in the Adamawa state floodplain using GIS and Cellular Automation Evolutionary Slope and River Model (CAESAR), to determine inundation levels and assess vulnerability of settlements in Adamawa state; David et. al. (2008) also carried out a Flood Inundation Hazard Modeling of the river Kaduna using GIS and Remote sensing techniques. However all the above studies have focused on using Models to create different scenarios of inundation levels and likely areas to be affected in case of floods, there is however, the need to understand that floods do not cause damage or suffering alone, our decision about where to live, work and build are the cause, thus in trying to understand the problem and proffer solutions, there is the need to also study human alterations of the floodplain through land use conversion and modification which also consequentially affects

the floodplains, cumulatively destabilizes natural ecosystems and induces flooding and damage to life and property. According to Anderson (2001), a modern nation must have adequate information on many complex interrelated aspects of its activities in order to make decisions; land use is only one of such aspects, but knowledge about land use and land cover has become increasingly important as the nation plans to overcome the problems of haphazard uncontrolled development, deterioration of environmental quality, loss of agricultural lands, destruction of wetlands and loss of habitats. Land use data are needed in the analysis of environmental processes and problems (e.g. floodplains, floods) that must be understood if living conditions and standards are to be improved or maintained (Anderson, 2001). It is on this premise that this study therefore attempts to use remote sensing techniques; G. I. S and fieldwork in analyzing Land use land cover changes along the floodplain of River Kaduna with the hope of understanding the problem and providing the means of ameliorating it and finding sustainable solutions. From the foregoing, the study is set out to find answers to the following research questions: 1. 2. What is the size of the River Kaduna floodplain within What are the present operational land use types in the the metropolis? floodplain?

3.

What is the pattern of land use change within the

floodplain over the period under study (i.e. between 1995, 2005 and 2009?) 4. 5. What are the causes of the changes? What are the problems associated with the changes?

1.3

AIM AND OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study is to carry out a temporal land use and land cover analysis along River Kaduna floodplain. The aim is to be achieved through the following objectives: 1. To delineate the floodplain of river Kaduna within the metropolis. 2. To map out and characterize the major land use/land cover categories along the floodplain. 3. To generate statistics of the changes that occur in the area using remotely sensed images of 1995, 2005 and 2009. 4. To identify problems arising from observed changes in land use and land cover.

1.4

JUSTIFICATION Many studies have been conducted on Kaduna metropolis in

the past, for example studies by Ndabula (2006) considered land use/land cover changes in the whole metropolitan area, his focus was on understanding the dynamic relationship between Kaduna urban growth and land use land cover change as an index of land
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degradation with a special mention on encroachments into River Kaduna floodplain. Abashiya (2006) also examined the nature of man-made urban structures (culverts, bridge piers/beams, paved surfaces) in northern Kaduna metropolis. He concluded that the character of drainages and their confused linkages with natural drainage lines are potentials for generating flooding in the study area. There is however the need to complement those earlier efforts and improve our understanding of the problem through a comprehensive and up to date study, which will extensively investigate the nature and characteristics of land use land cover changes within the floodplain area and how development, is fast encroaching into the floodplain. This is important considering the fact that devastating floods have occurred almost on a yearly basis at the peak of the rainy season. The Kaduna state government alerts the public in Daily Trust Newspaper of 19 th May, 2011, of a possible flood predicted by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) in 2011; people living close to the floodplains were thus forewarned. In September 2012, devastating floods struck causing severe damage to properties. In advanced countries such as the United States of America, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has a standard framework on floodplain protection and restoration. They also provide flood insurance through in-depth studies on flood hazards, flood inundation mapping, floodplain zoning, flood risk and vulnerability studies. Updates are also made regularly to go with changing conditions and time (flood plains are dynamic
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systems). Sadly, in Nigeria such studies are rarely done by the relevant authorities. It is thus hoped that a study of this nature will bridge that gap and provide a basis for long term solution to the problem. In order to regulate new floodplain improvements and to reduce the amount of future losses due to flooding, flood prone areas should be clearly identified, studied and delineated. The purpose of this study is thus to analyze the land use land cover changes along the floodplain (between 1995, 2005 and 2009). It is hoped that a study of this nature will serve as an aid in mitigation measures and a working document for institutional framework.

1.5

SCOPE The study will focus on River Kaduna along the floodplain

particularly within the metropolitan area from the Kaduna western bye pass bridge at Kaduna south up to Rafin Guza in Kaduna north. The distance covered is calculated as about twenty four kilometers (24 Km) using the Google Earth software tools. The area is chosen due to the fact that structures (built up areas), agricultural practices and other land uses are easily observable within these areas and are thus most affected in an event of flood. The study also analyzes land use changes within the floodplain boundary of River Kaduna as indicated by the study area map (Fig. 1) generated from digital elevation model (DEM). Thus the study does not cover adjacent areas outside the
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floodplain boundary. The study also uses imageries of 1995, 2005 and 2009 showing the study area; consequently the analysis was focused on those periods.

1.6

THE STUDY AREA

1.6.1 LOCATION AND EXTENT The Study Area lies within the Kaduna metropolis between latitudes 1002630N and 1003530N and longitudes 702230E and 702930. Kaduna River is a river in north central Nigeria, a long tributary of the Niger River. The river is 550 km (340 mi) long. From its source along the western margin of the Jos Plateau, the river flows northwest across the Kaduna plains. Just before it reaches the city of Kaduna, it turns to the southwest, cutting several gorges through rugged terrain between Kaduna and Zungeru.
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Finally, the river flows south through the broad, level Niger valley, and enters the Niger River opposite Pategi. Major tributaries joining River Kaduna along its course include the Mariga, the Tubo, the Sarkin, the Pawa,and the Galma (Encarta encyclopedia, 2009).

1.6.2 CLIMATE The climate of Kaduna metropolis is tropical continental type characterized by seasonal variations. The area is influenced by the tropical wet and dry climate (AW by Koppens classification) with seasonal alternation of moist maritime air mass (tropical maritime/SW trade wind), and dry continental air mass (North easterly trade wind/hamattan). The hamattan is pronounced between November and March and is cold, dry and dusty.

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The variation in the on-set of rainfall is attributable to the fluctuation of the boundary between these two air masses. Rainy season normally starts from April increasing gradually to its peak in August and then decline by September and October (Gimba, 1999). During the rainy season humidity is constantly more than 60% at mid-day approaching 100% at night. Insulation is constantly high throughout the period, although most of it is lost through reflection and absorption by thick cloud covers (Ati, 1998). Clouds are mostly cumulus nimbus. Monthly average rain fall is about 361mm, usually recorded between April and September. 1.6.3 GEOLOGY Kaduna metropolis is situated on the high plains of Hausaland which consist mainly of the Precambrian rocks of the basement complex (Barbour, et al 1982, Buchaman; 1955) mainly of older granites, schist and quartzite in different composition. The weathered profile is rich in red clay which is mined for construction purposes, while granite is also commonly quarried. However, no large scale mining of solid minerals is known to be existing in Kaduna urban environment. The rock is known to be stable and withstand all kinds of civil engineering construction such as dams, roads, building, etc. 1.6.4 RELIEF Kaduna metropolis and its surrounding area are characterized by extensive gentle slopes, undulating plains with vast rolling
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lowland plains generally below 610m above sea level. Slope is generally less than 40 m, except for the few dispersed protruding resistant granitic rocks (Inselbergs) which are the result of erosion of Precambrian rocks by agents of denudation. While the streams, have extensive floodplains and marshy lands (Young, 1976). 1.6.7 HYDROLOGY Kaduna metropolis and environs is drained by River Kaduna which has it source at Kwal on the north central Plateau and is among the larger tributaries of river Niger. River Kaduna is the major source of domestic and industrial water for the metropolis. The Kangimi Dam is the source of potable water supply by Kaduna State water board for the metropolis. There are other artificial earth dams around the metropolis majorly for agricultural purposes. The rivers are located in a seasonal climatic belt of wet and dry condition as such they have characteristic fluctuation in volumes with rivers having full volumes during the rainy season with peaks causing occasional flooding over their banks. This decreases during the dry season. The weathered regolith is generally shallow except along river valleys, hence causing the area not to be very rich in underground water. Most of the shallow wells which most urban dwellers rely on for daily domestic consumption often dry up during the dry seasons when water table level falls low (Ndabula, 2006).
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1.6.5 SOILS The interplay of geological, geomorphological and Bioclimatic factors, result in the area underlain with ferruginous tropical soils containing about 30-40% clay at reasonable depth due to intensive leaching. The soil profile is less than 3m, with hard-pan which may be encountered within the profile. These soils are characteristically waterlogged when it rains and dries out with cracks during the dry season (Kofa, 1983). Some areas have permanently water logged soils called Fadama. Experts note that these ferruginous tropical soils are fragile with nutrient holding capacity not good to support intensive agriculture for long periods without application of fertilizers or manure. In recent times, soil degradation has taken the forms of erosion due to loss of vegetal cover, compaction from tramping by grazed animals, acidification/alkalinisation from synthetic fertilizers. 1.6.6 VEGETATION The vegetation is basically Northern Guinea Savanana. Composed of Savanna wood lands (trees), shrubs patch land or extensive grass land. The trees lay long taproots, develop thick barks, and shed their leaves to survive long dry season or drought. Grasses have developed durable roots, which remain under the ground after the tops have been burnt by fire during the dry season. After the dry season the grasses sprawl again with the onset of rain. In the wet season however, vegetation becomes green with fresh leaves and tall grasses. Exotic
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vegetation can be observed in the G. R. A. areas while agro forest is observed in the Afaka area and orchards mostly along River Kaduna. The riparian vegetation (along stream valleys) is usually dense and made up of savannah woodlands. Ornamental vegetation is now common around residential and administrative corridors. Botanical gardens have increased the greening of the metropolis. Despite these, there appears to be a general trend of decline in the natural vegetation (Ndabula, 2006).

1.6.8 POPULATION As cities grow either as a result of in-migration or natural increase or a combination of both very distinct forms of living and working structures emerge (Arowolo, 1987). The population of Kaduna metropolis comprises the following major ethnic groups: Atyab (Kataf), Hausa, Bajju (Kaje), Fulani, Gbagyi (Gwari), Kadara, Ikulu, Kagooro, Jaba, Moroa, Ninzam, Kaninkom, Kuturmi etc. Other non-indigenous ethnic group comprises nearly all ethnic nationalities of Nigeria because of its cosmopolitan. The population of Kaduna metropolis has shown steady and rapid increase as follows: 10,653 in 1931, 44,540 in 1952, 149,910 in 1963 and 800,000 in 1991. It was projected as at 2000 that the population of Kaduna metropolis alone would have been

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well over one (1) million at the present growth rate of 3.8% (Mamman, 1992). 1.6.9 ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES Kaduna, being the capital of Kaduna state, is accessible by rail, road and air to all parts of Nigeria and attracts industry, commerce, and government investments. A combination of these has kept the wheel of growth and expansion moving into Kaduna. Industries such as textiles, automobile assembly, petroleum refinery and numerous service industries in the south of Kaduna in addition to the numerous markets and small scale informal economic activities on streets, homes and public pavements are pull factors into Kaduna metropolis thereby increasing its population (DFID, 2003). Agricultural activities are also practiced in the metropolis including dry season farming especially along the floodplain areas of the river Kaduna.

CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

The literature review provided an important foundation that built on knowledge that already exist by looking at the relevant views, ideas, comments of researchers, scholars. In this chapter the following will be examined: Flood plains; definition, natural and beneficial functions, human alteration and hazards, major drivers in floodplain change, Floodplain protection, Floodplain restoration and management. In the second part, the following is
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examined: the nature of land use and land cover, remote sensing/ G.I.S in land use land cover mapping, change detection techniques, dynamics of land use land cover change, sectoral causes of land use land cover change, and integrative framework for understanding land use land cover change.

2.1

FLOODPLAIN DEFINATION The United State of Americas Federal Emergency

Management Administration (FEMA) defines a floodplain as an area adjacent to a river, stream, or waterway that may flood. Floodplains are also areas of low lying land that are subject to inundation by lateral overflow water from rivers or lakes with which they are associated (Junk et al. 1989). A floodplain can also be defined as any normally dry land area that is susceptible to inundation by water from any natural source. This area is usually low land adjacent to a stream or lake (EEA, 2006).

2.2 FLOODPLAINS: NATURAL AND BENEFICIAL FUNCTIONS Flood plains offer a remarkably diverse array of natural services and functions. They provide biodiversity, flood retention, a nutrient sink, opportunities for pollution control, ground water recharge, carbon sequestration, timber and food production, organic matter production and export, recreational facilities and aesthetic value. Some of these are complementary service
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functions and the benefits are experienced simultaneously, while others are in mutual conflict, so that exploiting one benefit implies loss of another (Barbier and Thompson 1998; Acharya 2000). Flood plains, riparian zones and river marginal wetland environments are key landscape elements with a high diversity of natural functions and services. They are dynamic systems that are shaped by repeated erosion and deposition of sediment, inundation during rising water levels and complex ground watersurface water exchange process. This dynamic nature makes floodplains among the most biologically productive and diverse ecosystems on earth (Junk et al, 1989). Floodplains are also of great cultural and economic importance; most early civilizations arose in fertile floodplains and throughout history people have learned to cultivate and use their rich resources. Floodplains have also served as focal points for urban development and exploitation of their natural functions. Awareness has been growing during the past decade of the global significance of freshwater diversity, of the array of factors that have (or will have) threatened it and the extent to which real damage has already been done. Floodplains in particular have been highly degraded throughout the world by river and flow management and by land use pressures. Nowadays, they are among the most endangered ecosystems worldwide (Olson and Diner stein, 2001). Accordingly, floodplains deserve increased attention for their inherent biodiversity, for goods and services
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provided to human societies and for their aesthetic and cultural appeal. 2.2.1 Ecological values of flood plains Flood plains develop in all geographic regions and at different locations along river corridors. They are also topographically unique ecosystems occupying the lowest position in the landscape; they tend to integrate upstream catchmentscale processes. There exist some basic principles that drive ecology of river- floodplain ecosystems (Bunn and Arthington, 2002). The flow regime determines the magnitude of ecological processes and temporal variability in floodplain communities and ecosystem processes. Fluvial dynamics, including the expansion and contraction of surface waters (flood and flow pulses) is also the driving force that sustains connectivity in flood plains and the river channel (Junk et al. 1989). Hydrologic connectivity, a key process in riverine flood plains, refers to water- mediated transfer of energy, matter and organisms within or among elements of riverine corridors (Ward et al. 1999). For example, diversity of birds and fish is significantly higher in floodplain waters with a natural hydrological regime compared to those with a regulated regime (Ward et al. 1999). Even small changes in the relative contribution of individual water sources may drastically alter species composition and diversity. Flood plains form a complex mosaic of landforms, communities and environments (Naiman et al. 1993). The exceptionally high biodiversity of floodplain ecosystems results
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from a number of attributes such as soil moisture availability, structural complexity, microclimate characteristics and nutrient enrichments. Indeed, far more species of plants and animals occur on flood plains than in any other landscape unit in most regions of the world. In the pacific coastal eco region of the USA, for example, approximately 29% of wildlife species ranging from 12% of mammals to 60% of amphibians found in riparian forests are riparian obligates (Tockner et al. 2008). Although less than 1% of the landscape of the western USA supports riparian vegetation, this vegetation provides habitat for more species of breeding birds than any other vegetation association (Knopf and Samson, 1994). In the Amazon basin, approximately 1000 floodadapted tree species occur in the flood plains. In a small floodplain segment upstream of Manaus (Mamiraua Reserve, Brazil), approximately 500 tree species have been identified, about 80% of which are flood-plain-specific (Wittmann, 2006). The occurrence of a distinct flooding gradient seems to maintain high landscape heterogeneity and therefore biodiversity on Amazonian flood plains. Despite these important attributes, flood plains remain one of the least investigated landscape elements in terms of their contribution to regional biodiversity (Sabo et al. 2005). Flood plains are among the most productive landscapes on Earth, owing to continual enrichment by import and retention of nutrient rich sediments from headwaters and from lateral sources, and they are usually more productive than the Parent River and adjacent uplands (Naiman, 1993). Globally, flood plains
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are key strategic natural resources and they will continue to play a pivotal future role as focal nodes for biodiversity and bio production. Due to their distinct position along a river corridor, they are influenced by changes in the river as well as alterations at the catchment/landscape scale, resulting in a dynamic ecosystem under threat from all sides (Tockner et al. 2008).

2.3 PLAINS

HUMAN ALTERATION AND HAZARDS OF FLOOD

2.3.1 The double-edge face of floods Instead of allowing rivers to fan out and take advantage of the natural flood-control function of floodplains, many governments have spent large amounts of money to force rivers into tight channels, which has encouraged human use of flood plains throughout the developed world (Tockner et al. 2008). Moreover, reclamation of flood plains has often led to a massive increase in peak flow in downstream sections. Nowadays, about half of Europes population and 70% of Japanese people live on flood plains (Statistics Bureau of Japan, 2003). Despite engineering efforts to control rivers and protect rivers life and property, flood losses continue to increase in most parts of the developed world. Floods are among the costliest natural disasters worldwide, in particular where human encroachment is intense (Burby, 2002). According to the Emergency Disaster Database (EM-DAT 2004), in the period from 1900 to 2004, floods affected 2.9 billion people, with 2.9 million killed and greater than 130
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million made homeless worldwide. In the USA, with 6 million buildings located within the boundaries of a 100-year-old flood plain, flood losses are wide spread , have increased dramatically over the last few decades (the average damage cost is $115 million per week) and will continue to do so over the next decades (Congressional Natural Hazard Caucus Work Group 2001). Industrial complexes in floodplain areas are also potential sources of contamination. For example, during the recession phase of the Elbe floods in central Europe in 2002, threats from dioxin, mercury and other contaminants arose from flooding of sewage plants and release from river and floodplain beds (Tockner et al. 2008). Whereas the increasing exposure of property to flood risks is likely to be responsible for the major increase in flood damage over the next decades (Mitchell, 2003), the invasion of flood plains by humans in search of new land for farming and homes is one of the most important drivers of flood losses in economically developing countries. In Bangladesh, flood plains occupy 80% of the country and annual flooding (locally known as borsha) is a part of peasant life to which people are resilient, since one-fifth of the country is regularly flooded(Mirza, 2003). Regular flooding is viewed as beneficial; it creates and maintains the high fertility of soils and supports the worlds most densely populated country (average population density 1209 persons/km 2: World Bank 2002).

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Increasing population density has increased the vulnerability of human people to flooding. This increasing risk has led to the development of multiple large scale management plans including the construction of large dams in upstream regions (for example Nepal), high embankments and bypass channels (Tockner et al. 2008). All of these plans, however, ignore the multiple benefits of the natural flood regime. 2.3.2 The cultural value of flood plains The multiple resources provided by flood plains have favoured the development of ancient cultures along the Nile, the Euphrates and the Indus. Rice cultivation started in China about 7000 years ago and continues to be the nutritional basis for much of the human population worldwide. In the flood plain of the Amazon River, pre-Columbian human population density was several times higher than in adjacent uplands (Junk et al. 1989). Flood plains are inhabited by a variety of indigenous human societies that are well adapted to the conditions and have developed a rich local culture. Many of these peoples are already listed as threatened and there is a great risk that the ongoing environmental impact on large river-floodplain complexes will also increase the future risk of their extinction. Examples include the Lotzi(Water People) in the Borotse flood plain (Zambezi River basin, southern Africa) or the Ogoni in the Niger delta (Nigeria), threatened by oil exploitation In addition to changing hydrology. The Nuer, Dinka and Shiluk in the Sudd area (Nile) are threatened

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by civil war and by the construction of the Jonglai Canal (Tockner et al. 2008).

2.4 MAJOR DRIVERS IN FLOODPLAIN CHANGE Flood plains are among the most altered landscapes worldwide and they continue to disappear at an alarming rate, since the reclamation rate is much higher than for most other landscape types (Vitousek et al. 1997). The decline of floodplain diversity is much greater than of terrestrial systems, which is attributable to habitat alteration, pollution, competition for water, invasive species and over harvesting. Among these factors, land transformation including alteration of flow regime is the single most important cause of species extinction (Vitousek et al. 1997). Habitat degradation and loss contribute to the endangerment of 85% of the threatened species in the USA (Wilcove et al. 1998). Drivers such as climate, species invasion and habitat degradation also cause irreversible changes, at least on ecological timescales from decades to centuries (Tockner et al. 2008). For riverfloodplain ecosystems, expected impacts vary latitudinally. In tropical ecosystems, land use is expected to have the greatest effect, (note) with climate change being minimal. In temperate systems, Both land use change and invasion of non-native species can be expected equally to affect biodiversity, and in high latitude/altitude systems climate change is by far the most dominant driver, although region-specific differences exist (Sala et al. 2000).
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2.4.1 Human Population Growth Increase in human population will be by far the most important driver in future biodiversity change in the developing countries. The current annual human population increase of 80 million will probably remain constant until 2015. The total population growth from 6 billion in 2000 to an expected 8 billion in 2025 will be generated almost exclusively in developing countries, primarily in Asia, although average annual growth rates will be highest in Africa (Tockner et al. 2008). The regions that will experience the largest difficulties in meeting future demand for land resources and water, or alternatively will have to cope with increased dependency on external supplies, include western and south central Asia, and northern Africa. A large stress on resources is to be expected also in many countries in the remainder of Africa (Tinker, 1997). The strong population momentum indicates the next 20 to 30 years to be the most critical for achieving food security. Since remaining natural flood plains generally promise high food production rates, these are expected to be among the first ecosystems to disappear. High human population growth rate, fast economic development and limited financial resources for conservation will lead to a disproportional impact on global biodiversity in developing countries (Tockner et al. 2008). 2.4.2 Climate change More intensive precipitation events over many areas, increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental
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interiors and associated risks of drought, and higher minimum temperatures are likely to result from climate change (IPCC 2001). These could increase the risk of abrupt and non-linear changes in flood plains, affecting their function, biodiversity and productivity. A warming of air by 3-4 0c is predicted to eliminate 85% of all remaining wetlands (UNEP, 2001). Projected effects for flood plains include lower water levels during the growing season and higher mean water temperatures. The return period of extreme precipitation events could decrease almost everywhere. Climate simulations have suggested that global warming induced by greenhouse gases would lead to a moistening of the atmosphere (7% per degree warming) and an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Numerical modeling carried out in Europe for the fall season predicts a substantial shift towards more frequent large-precipitation events, in particular in southern Europe and in the Alpine regions, since these areas are expected to be particularly receptive to the moisture effect . For North Carolina, an increase in precipitation of 15% (5-30%) is predicted by 2100, which will shift floodplain boundaries and make recent human developments in floodplain areas especially vulnerable to flood damages (Tockner et al. 2008). Similar effects are predicted for the Pacific Northwest (USA). In 2070, for example, floods that now have 20-year return periods are projected to occur twice as often. For the eastern USA, a 10% decline in annual runoff could result in a nearly 50% increase in intermittent streams (Poff, 1997). In the Fraser River (British Columbia, Canada), annual
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floods may occur on average 24 days earlier in 2070, summer temperature may increase by 1.9 0c, and the potential exposure of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) to water temperatures above 20 0c, limiting their spawning process, could increase by a factor of 10 (Morrison et al. 2002). The alteration of flow regimes is the most serious and continuing threat to the ecological integrity of river-floodplain ecosystems (Naiman et al. 1993) by reducing flood peaks, flooding frequency and duration, and changing the nature of dry periods. These changes reduce the lateral connectivity between the flood plain and the parent river, disrupt sediment transport and reduce channel forming flows. Inundation duration curves used to assess the hydroecological integrity of these ecosystems indicate an almost linear relationship between water level and inundated area in the natural flood plains (Benke et al. 2000). In regulated rivers such as the Australian Danube, flood inundation is short and the increase in inundation area is abrubt. Along the channeled rivers, flood plains only receive surface flooding from the river during major flood events (Tockner et al. 2008). Large scale floodplain development and water resource development often lead to major decrease in the reactive floodplain area. For example, Barmah-Millewa Forest on the upper Murray River (Australia) is the largest remaining river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) forest in Australia and is in part listed under the Ramsar convension. Regulation of river flows in the upper catchment has largely alienated the flood plain from the river,
29

and flooding of the forest has been reduced from 80% to 35% of years. Reduced flooding frequency has changed the community composition, growth and regeneration of the floodplain vegetation. A similar fate has befallen the Macquarie Marshes in the upper Murray-Darling basin. These major floodplain wetlands at the end of the Macquarie River cover about 130,000 ha during large floods. Water diversion from the Macquarie River has greatly reduced the area of the floodplain inundation and the Macquarie Marshes have contracted to 40-50% of their original size (Kingsford, 2000). The abundance and species richness of water birds in the northern part of the Marquarie Marshes have declined as a consequence and major changes in the composition of floodplain vegetation have also occurred (Kingsford, 2000). Changes in catchment hydrology, caused by clearing of native vegetation for agriculture, have also led to a marked increase in dry land salinity in some Australian flood plains (Tockner et al. 2008).

2.4.3 Species invasion and pollution Species invasion is one of the most important causes of the overall decline in aquatic biodiversity. The higher percentage of exotic plants and animals in flood plains compared to uplands demonstrates the vulnerability of the riparian zone to invasion (Pysek, 2002). Despite great differences in climate, species richness and land use history, 20-30% of species in riparian corridors of Europe, the Pacific Northwest (USA) and South Africa
30

are

invasive

(Naiman,

1993).

Fourteen

of

the

top

18

environmentally noxious weeds in Australia occur in floodplains and wetlands (Bunn et al. 2002), and species such as Mimosa pigra and Urochloa mutica have had major impacts in the largely undeveloped floodplain river systems of the Australian wet-dry tropics. Although invasive species are frequently responsible for the decline of native species, the introduction of exotic species may increase overall diversity, although the impacts of exotic species may vary at different spatiotemporal scales (Sax and Gaines, 2003). Pollution is still a major issue in both the economically developed and developing countries. An example is in China, 80% of the 50, 000km of major rivers are too polluted to sustain fisheries and fish have been completely eliminated from 5% (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations- FAO, 1999).

2.4.4 Land use change Land use change is a major environmental driver of the condition of fresh water ecosystems. At the global scale, the land area significantly impacted by human activities may increase from 15-20% to 50-90% within 50 years, and pressure on flood plains will be among the highest (UNEP, 2001). Flood plains are often the focus of urban or agricultural development. In Asia, more than 5000 km/sq of wetlands are lost every year because of changes in land use such as agricultural development, urbanization and dam construction. If this trend continues, which
31

is

probable

because

of

rapid

economic

and

demographic

development, by 2025 an additional 105 000 km 2 of wetlands will be converted to other uses. In particular, India and China belong to the rapidly developing countries where an increasing demand for water from a growing population and rapid economic development will lead to substantial water shortages (Tockner et al. 2008). The increasing water demand for agriculture and industry will reinforce the current pressure on flood plains. It is predicted that China will be able to feed its population in the future only if all rivers are dammed and no fresh water reaches the sea except during major floods. The ecological consequences for river-floodplain ecosystems are expected to be disastrous (Tockner et al. 2008). The Caspian region, the Middle East, parts of Argentina and Chile, South-east Africa and South East Asia have been identified as the most critical regions of water resource vulnerability with respect to climate change and land use within the next 20 years. In South-East Asia, the combined effects of climate change, human population growth and economic development will increase the pressure on fresh water biodiversity probably more than in any other part of the world. In particular, aquatic organisms will be affected by water pollution, flow regulation, habitat degradation and exotic species invasion (Dudgeon, 2005). In Kaduna metropolis (Nigeria) the trend of encroachment into the River Kaduna floodplain is as a result of the combined effect of vertical and horizontal urban growth (Ndabula, 2006) .
32

2.5

FLOODPLAIN PROTECTION The recent increase in flooding and the resultant heavy

economic losses has drawn a sharp focus onto the flood defense issue. Although attributed to climate change, both land use and river impoundment are alleged to be the main causes behind increased flooding in recent years , dramatically reducing natural space for water across an entire river catchment( Potter, 2006 ). Menzel and Kundzewicz (2003) believe decisions taken on flood protection back in the mid 19 th century by the U. S. congress had a large influence on worldwide flood control strategy. To solve the problem of the Mississippi floods (which also flooded recently in 2011) U. S. congress took the decision to embank the River into a single channel isolated from its floodplain. As a result of the loss of valuable riparian and floodplain habitat; land drainage, urbanization, river regulation ( e. g. channel straitening and shortening, construction of embankment and general reduction of the floodplain area) all these reduces the natural water storage capacity of the catchment and increases discharge peaks of rivers, particularly in their lower reaches( Blackwell and Maltby, 2005). Inevitably, flood hazards and vulnerability to flooding events has risen substantially. The planning system and land use management in recent decades has not always prevented development on flood plains, attracted by flat topography, high soil fertility and proximity to

33

river transport and water resource , often protected behind engineered flood defenses(Potter, 2006).

2.6 FLOODPLAIN RESTORATION The restoration of natural floodplains, providing more space for water where it is considered safe, is acknowledged to offer a strong response to flood risk alleviation with additional benefits to the environment and society (Potter, 2006). According to Allison Croft (2000); The long term solution to flood devastation is to restore our flood plains and wetlands. These habitats provide vital functions in rain retention, water storage and flood alleviation as well as supporting a wealth of wild life. It is essential that we work with nature and not against it. The use of hard engineering for flood protection is not the only solution, and in some cases can make things worse. Since the mid 1990s agencies involved with land and water management have been moving away from flood defences and slowly towards a flood risk management approach, recognizing that not all floods can be prevented (Tunstall, et al. 2004). Rather than a dependence on structural defences, the new approach places greater emphasis on flood alleviation( such as flood warning systems, and flood proofing of property, land use planning and development control) and the development of soft techniques, looking to work with rather than against nature, including managed realignment and floodplain restoration (Tunstall et al. 2004).
34

2.7 FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT Floodplains and riparian forests are some of the most dynamic zones of any landscape, and they contain some of the highest levels of biological diversity and habitat complexity. These areas are also highly valued for their access to water, transportation potential, food, recreation and beauty. Historically, towns and cities along rivers have encroached on this zone and then attempted to create stable stream banks in areas that are, by nature, dynamic. This inherent contradiction is the basis for management The developed of floodplains and riparian been forests worldwide been in the (Tockner et al. 2008). twenty-first world. century has frequently exist designated as the century of nature restoration, at least in the However, major difficulties implementation of restoration schemes. Firstly, there is a perceived conflict between the goals of flood management and ecological conservation or restoration, which partly reflects the different values and paradigms within organizations and corresponding institutions (Pahl-Wostl, 2002). Secondly, there are conflicts that arise because of trans-boundary nature of many major river ecosystems, with the attendant problems of continuity of floodplain management policy and practice between upstream and downstream riparian states with different environmental priorities. Thirdly, a tension exists between water management, land-use planning and other aspects of environmental management (Tockner et al. 2008).
35

Viable floodplain management can only be achieved when property owners, developers, environmental activists and governmental officials at all levels work together (Naiman, 1993). It must be recognized that floodplain management is a publicprivate venture (flood control vs. land ownership). Incentives are suitable for floodplain management because they consider private as well as public benefit. A positive example is the recent initiation of a new approach to flood mitigation and river restoration by the US Army Corps of engineers. In a pilot phase, the corps pays 65% of the cost of resuming properties on flood plains, tear down dams and dykes, and relocate property owners. The local communities finance the remaining 35%. Initial results demonstrate a high interest by communities and affected people in the property buyouts on the USAs flood plains (IUCN 2000). This approach is indeed laudable and is recommended in developing countries (e.g. Nigeria); however the peculiarities and realities in each country should form the basis for any successful floodplain restoration and management approach. Flood plains are unique and dynamic ecosystems that link rivers with their catchments. They are highly productive environments, supporting a diverse biota, but are also intensively used by humans for agricultural and urban development, resulting in loss of biodiversity and ecological functioning. The priority for flood plains is to conserve those that are still intact and to attempt to rehabilitate those that are degraded. In cases, protecting and restoring key components of the natural flow
36

regime is essential, while maintaining sustainable use of the floodplain developing resources countries. by local Finding communities, this particularly in compromise between

conservation and resource use requires a greater understanding of the role of flow relative to other stressors in driving ecological processes in flood plains. Floodplain management and restoration strategies must also take into account climate change models that predict significant changes to flow regimes in most of the World Rivers.

2.8

NATURE OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER The analysis of land use revolves around two central and

interrelated questions what are the causes/drivers and what are the impacts. The precise meaning of the drivers or determinants or driving forces of land use change is not always clear, commonly accepted and understood by all those who engage in studies of land use change. It is however almost unanimously accepted that, there two main categories: 1. Bio-physical drivers and 2. Socio-economic drivers The bio-physical drivers include characteristics and processes of the natural environment such as weather, climate variation, landform, topography and geomorphic processes, volcanic eruptions, plant succession, soil types and processes, drainage patterns, availability of natural resources est.

37

The socio-economic drivers comprise demographic, social and economic, political and institutional factors and processes such as population, population change, industrial structure and change, technology and technological change, the family, the market, various public sector bodies and related policies and rules, values, community organizations and norms. It is obvious that these factors change in space and time. According to Meyer, (1999) every parcel of land on the Earths surface is unique in the cover it possesses. Land use and land cover are distinct yet closely linked characteristics of the Earths surface. The use to which we put land could be grazing, agriculture, urban development, logging, and mining among many others. While land cover categories could be cropland, forest, wetland, pasture, roads, urban areas among others. The term land cover originally referred to the kind and state of vegetation, such as forest or grass cover but it has broadened in subsequent usage to include other things such as human structures, soil type, biodiversity, surface and ground water (Meyer, 1995). Land use affects land cover and changes in land cover affect land use. A change in either however is not necessarily the product of the other. Changes in land cover by land use do not necessarily imply degradation of the land. However, many shifting land use patterns driven by a variety of social causes, result in land cover changes that affects biodiversity, water and radiation

38

budgets, trace gas emissions and other processes that come together to affect climate and biosphere ( Meyer, 1995). Land cover can be altered by forces other than anthropogenic, natural events such as weather, flooding, fire, climate fluctuations, and ecosystem dynamics may also initiate modifications upon land cover. Globally, land cover today is altered principally by direct human: by agriculture and livestock raising, forest harvesting and management and urban and suburban construction and development. There are also incidental impacts on land cover from other human activities such as forest and lakes damaged by acid rain from fossil fuel combustion and crops near cities damaged by tropospheric ozone resulting from automobile exhaust (Meyer, 1995). In order to use land optimally, it is not only necessary to have the information on existing land use/cover but also the capability to monitor the dynamics of land use resulting out of both changing demands of increasing population and forces of nature acting to shape the landscape. Conventional ground methods of land use mapping are labor intensive, time consuming and are done relatively infrequently. These maps soon become outdated with the passage of time, particularly in a rapid changing environment. In fact according to Olorunfemi (1983), monitoring changes and time series analysis is quite difficult with traditional method of surveying. In recent years, satellite remote sensing techniques have been developed, which have proved to be of immense value for preparing accurate
39

land use land cover maps and monitoring changes at regular intervals of time. In case of inaccessible region, this technique is perhaps the only method of obtaining the required data on a cost and time effective basis (Opeyemi, 2006). 2.8.1 REMOTE SENSING AND G.I.S IN LAND USE LAND COVER MAPPING A remote sensing device records response which is based on many characteristics of the land surface, including natural and artificial cover. An interpreter uses the element of tone, texture, pattern, shape, size, shadow, site and association to derive information about land cover. The generation of remotely sensed data/images by various types of sensor flown aboard different platforms at varying heights above the terrain and at different times of the day and the years does not lead to a simple classification system. It is often believed that no single classification could be used with all types of imagery and all scales. To date, the most successful attempt in developing a general purpose classification scheme compatible with remote sensing data has been by Anderson (1976) which are also referred to as USGS classification scheme. Other classification schemes available for use with remotely sensed data are basically modification of the above classification scheme (Opeyemi, 2006). Ever since the launch of the first remote sensing satellite (Landsat 1) in 1972, land use land cover studies were carried out on different scales for different users. For instance, waste land
40

mapping of India was carried out on 1:1 million scales by NRSA using 1980 and 1982 landsat multi spectral scanner data. About 16.2% of waste lands were estimated based on the study. Xiaomei and Rong Qing (1999) noted that information about change is necessary for updating land cover maps and the management of natural resources. The information may be obtained by visiting sites on the ground and or extracting it from remotely sensed data. Change detection is the process of identifying differences in the state of an object or phenomenon by observing it at different times (Singh, 1989). Change detection is an important process in monitoring and managing natural resources and urban development because it provides quantitative analysis of the spatial distribution of the population of interest. Macleod and Congalton (1998) list aspects of change detection which are important when monitoring natural resources: i. ii. iii. iv. Detecting the changes that have occurred Identifying the nature of the change Measuring the area extent of the change Assessing the spatial pattern of the change

The basis of using remote sensing data for change detection is that changes in land cover result in changes in radiance values which can be remotely sensed. Techniques to perform change detection with satellite imagery have become numerous as a result of increasing versatility in manipulating digital data and increasing computer power.
41

2.8.2 CHANGE DETECTION TECHNIQUES A wide variety of digital change detection techniques have been developed over the last two decades. Singh (1989) and Chopping and Bauer (1996) summarize different change detection algorithms that were found to be documented in the literature by 1995. These include; Mono temporal change delineation, Delta or post classification comparisons, Multidimensional temporal feature space analysis, composite analysis, Visual analysis, Manual on-screen digitization of change, Image differencing, Change vector analysis, Multi temporal linear data transformation, Image regression, Multi temporal biomass index, Background subtraction, Image rationing. In some instances, land use land cover change may result in environmental, social and economic impacts of greater damage than benefit to an area (Moshen, 1999). Therefore data on land use change are of great importance to planners in monitoring the consequences of land use change of an area. Such data are of value to resources management and agencies that plan and assess land use patterns and in modeling and predicting future changes (Opeyemi 2006). Shosheng and Kutiel (1994) investigated the advantages of remote sensing techniques in relation to field surveys in providing a regional description of vegetation cover. The results of their research where used to produce four vegetation cover maps that
42

provided new information on spatial and temporal distributions of vegetation in this area and allowed regional quantitative assessment of the vegetation cover. Arvind and Nathawat (2006) carried out a study on land use land cover mapping of Panchkula, Ambala and Yamunanger districts, Hangana State in India. They observed that the heterogeneous climate and physiographic conditions in these districts has resulted in the development of different land use land cover in these districts, an evaluation by digital analysis of satellite data indicates that majority of areas in these districts are used for agricultural purpose. The hilly regions exhibit fair development of reserved forests. It is inferred that land use land cover pattern in the area are generally controlled by agro climatic conditions, ground water potential and a host of other factors. It has been noted over time through series of studies that Landsat Thematic Mapper is adequate for general extensive synoptic coverage of large areas. As a result, this reduces the need for expensive and time consuming ground surveys conducted for validation of data. Generally, satellite imagery is able to provide more frequent data collection on a regular basis unlike aerial photographs which although may provide more geometrically accurate maps, is limited in respect to its extent of coverage and expensive which means, it is not often used. In 1985, the U.S. Geological Survey carried out a research program to produce 1:250,000 scale land cover maps for Alaska using Land sat MSS data (Fitz Patrick et al, 1987). The State of
43

Maryland Health Resources Planning Commission also used Landsat TM data to create a land cover data set for inclusion in their Maryland Geographic Information (MAGI) database. All seven TM bands were used to produce a 21 class land cover map (EOSAT 1992). Also in 1992, the Georgia Department of Natural Resources completed mapping the entire State of Georgia to identify and quantify wetlands and other land cover types using Land sat Thematic Mapper
TM

data (ERDAS, 1992). The State of

Southern Carolina Lands Resources Conservation Commission developed a detailed land cover map composed of 19 classes from TM data (EOSAT, 1994). This mapping effort employed multi temporal imagery as well as multi spectral data during classification. An analysis of land use and land cover changes using the combination of MSS Land sat and land use map of Indonesia (Dimyati, 1995) reveals that land use land cover change were evaluated by using remote sensing to calculate the index of changes which was done by the superimposition of land use land cover images of 1972, 1984 and land use maps of 1990. This was done to analyze the pattern of change in the area, which was rather difficult with the traditional method of surveying as noted by Olorunfemi in 1983 when he was using aerial photographic approach to monitor urban use in developing countries with Ilorin in Nigeria as the case study. Daniel et al, (2002) in their comparison of land use land cover change detection methods, made use of 5 methods viz;
44

traditional post classification cross tabulation, cross correlation analysis, neural networks, knowledge based expert systems, and image segmentation and object oriented classification. A combination of direct T1 and T2 change detection as well as post classification analysis are employed. Adeniyi and Omojola, (1999) in their land use land cover change evaluation in Sokoto- Rima Basin of North western Nigeria based on the Archival remote sensing and G.I.S techniques, used aerial Photographs, landsat MSS, SPOT XS/ Panchromatic image transparency and topographical map sheets to study changes in two dams (Sokoto and Goronyo) between 1962 & 1986. The work revealed that land use land cover of both areas was unchanged before the construction while settlements alone covered most part of the area. However during the post dam era land use land cover classes changed with the settlement still remaining the largest.

2.8.3 CHANGE

DYNAMICS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER

In their review of the dynamics of land use land cover change in tropical regions Lambin, Geist and Lepers (2003) noted that land use is defined by the purpose for which humans exploit the land cover. And that there is a high variability in time and space in biophysical environments, socio economic activities and cultural contexts that are associated with land use change. Identifying the causes of land
45

use

change

requires

an

understanding of how people make land use decisions and how various factors interact in specific context to influence decision making on land use. Decision making is influenced by factors at the local, regional and global scale. Proximate (or direct) causes of land use change constitute human activities or immediate actions that originate from intended land use and directly affects land cover (Lambin et al, 2003). They involve a physical action on the land cover. Underlying (or indirect or root) causes are fundamental forces that underpin the more proximate causes of land cover change. They operate more diffusely (i.e., from a distance), often by altering one or more proximate causes (Lambins et al, 2003). Underlying cases are formed by a complex of social, political, economic, demographic, technological, cultural and biophysical variables that constitute initial conditions in the human environment relations and are structural (or systemic) in nature (Lambin et al, 2003).Proximate causes generally operate at the local level (individual farms, households, or communities). By contrast, underlying causes may originate from the regional (districts, provinces, or country) or even global levels, with complex interplays between levels of organization. 2.8.4 SECTORAL CAUSES OF LAND USE CHANGE

2.8.4.1 ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS Available case studies highlight that, at the timescale of a couple of decades or less, land use changes mostly result from individual and social responses to changing economic conditions, which are mediated by institutional factors. Opportunities and
46

constraints for new land uses are created by markets and policies and are increasingly influenced by global factors (Lambin et al, 2001 and Perz, 2002). Economic factors and policies defined a range of variables that have a direct impact on the decision making by land managers, e.g., input and output prices, taxes, subsidies, production and transportation costs, capital flows and investments, credit access, trade, and technology (Barbier, 1997). Internal consumption affects land less than external demand, so subsistence croplands consequently decrease while land under crops for markets increases with a parallel increase in agricultural intensity (Indian Science Academy, 2001). Market access is largely conditioned by state and investments regions in transportation between geographic infrastructure. households, The unequal distribution of wealth

countries,

determines

differences in economic opportunities and constraints. It affects, for example, who is able to develop, use, and profit from new technologies that increase efficiency in land management. Improving agricultural technology as much as providing secure land tenure and giving farmers better access to credit and markets can potentially encourage more deforestation rather than relieving pressure on the forests (Angelsen et al, 2001). The differing impact of agricultural development on forest conversion depends on how the new technologies affect the labor market and migration, whether the crops are sold locally or globally, how profitable farming is at the forest frontier, as well as on the capital

47

and labor intensity of the new technologies (Angelsen et al, 2001 ). 2.8.4.2 DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS At longer timescales, both increases and decreases of a given population also have a large impact on land use. Demographic change does not only imply the shift from high to low rates of fertility and mortality (as suggested by the demographic transition), but it is also associated with the development of households and features of their life cycle. The family or life cycle features relate mainly to labor availability at the level of households, which is linked to migration, urbanization, and the breakdown of extended families into several nuclear families. As an example of the latter phenomenon, the splintering of family herds in the West African Sudan Sahel zone over the past 25 years due to increases in nuclear households and the transfer of livestock wealth from herding families to merchants, agriculturalists, and government official led to increased investment in crop production, reduced labor availability among pastoral households, lower energy and skills applied to livestock husbandry, and reduced livestock mobility, which increased the risk of land degradation (Turner et al, 1999). Fuel wood demand by households in Africa differs between nuclear family units and larger consuming units; the latter are generally more energy efficient. al, 1990).
48

Small

consuming

units

thus

cause

more

forest

degradation, especially in peri urban environments (Cline-Cole et

The growth of urban aspirations, the urban rural population distribution, and the impact of rapidly growing cities on ecosystem goods and services are likely to become dominant factors in land use change in the decades to come, be it in major urban or peri urban areas (Indian Science Academy, 2001) or in remote hinterland or watershed areas (Humphries et al, 1998). Many new urban dwellers in developing countries still own rural landholdings (Browder et al, 1997). Although the growth of urban areas creates new local and regional markets for livestock, timber, and agricultural products, it also increases urban remittances to the countryside (Lambin et al, 2001). 2.8.4.3 INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS To explain land use changes, it is also important to understand institutions (political, legal, economic, and traditional) and their interactions with individual decision making (Ostrom et al, 1999). Access to land, labor, capital, technology, and information is structured (and is frequently constrained) by local and national policies and institutions (Batter bury et al, 1999). Land managers have varying capabilities to participate in and to define these institutions. Relevant nonmarket institutions include: property rights regimes; environmental policies; decision making systems on resource management (e.g., decentralization, democratization, and the role of the public, of civil society, and of local communities in decision making); information systems related to environmental indicators as they determine perception of changes in ecosystems; social networks representing specific
49

interests related to resource management; conflict resolution systems concerning access to resources; and institutions that govern the distribution of resources and thus control economic differentiation. Many land use changes are due to ill defined policies and weak institutional enforcement, as exemplified by the widespread illegal logging in Indonesia linked to corruption and to the devolving of forest management responsibilities to the district level (Jepson et al, 2001). On the other hand, recovery or restoration of land is also possible with appropriate land use policies. Consolidation of landholdings and the shift from communal, traditional systems to formal, state sanctioned

regimes is a trend observed throughout the developing world (McConnell et al, 2003). Examples of policies that influence land use change are state policies to attain self-sufficiency in food (Xu et al, 1999); taxation, fiscal incentives, subsidies, and credits (Pichon, 2007); price controls on agricultural inputs and outputs, decentralization (Xu et al, 1999): infrastructure support, (low) investments consolidation in monitoring (Imbernon, and formally guarding natural and resources; resource commodification (Xu et al, 1999); land 1999); nationalization, collectivization, structural adjustment measures and international environmental agreements(Kaimowitz et al, 1999).

2.8.4.4 CULTURAL FACTORS

50

Numerous cultural factors also influence decision making on land use. Land managers have various motivations, collective memories, and personal histories. Their attitudes, values, beliefs, and individual perceptions influence land use decisions for instance through their perception of and attitude toward risk. Land use decisions have intended and unintended consequences on ecosystems; these depend on the knowledge, information, and management skills available to land managers. Culture is often linked with political and economic inequalities, e.g., the status of women or ethnic minorities (Indian Science Academy, 2001) that affect resource access and land use. Understanding the controlling models of various actors may thus explain the management of resources, adaptive strategies, compliance or resistance to policies, or social learning and therefore social resilience in the face of land use change.

2.9 INTEGRATIVE FRAMEWORKS TO UNDERSTAND LAND USE/COVER CHANGES How to overcome the futile observation that everything is interrelated? The level of integration in research on land use/land cover change requires a combination of perspectives of understanding; the agent based perspective and the systems perspective, (Lambin et al, 1999). Each perspective approaches the impact on land of the interactions between macrostructure and micro agency from a different vantage point. These perspectives can be and are combined in various ways in
51

integrated, place based research on causes and impacts of land use change; examples include the Yucatan (Turner et al. 2001), the Serengeti Mara ecosystem (Lambin et al, 2001), the Nang Rong District in northeastern Thailand (Walsh et al, 1999), the Ecuadorian Amazon , the Belgian Ardennes (Petit et al,2002), the Yaqui valley in Mexico (Riley et al, 2001), the African Sahel (Mortimore et al, 1999), and other integrated land change studies over a particular geographical region. These perspectives still have to be integrated in the modeling of land use change. 2.9.1 Agent Based Perspective The agent based perspective is centered on the general nature and rules of land use decision making by individuals. It represents the motivations behind decisions and the external factors that influence decisions about land use. It applies approaches that range from the rational decision making of neoclassical economics to household, gender, class, and other dimensions common to the social and behavioral sciences. Local ecosystem managers have many motives, some intentional and others unconscious, related to economic, traditional, emotional or biophysical factors (Lambin et al, 2003). Economic models of land use change, for example, assume that land managers attempt to fulfill their needs and meet their expectations by accommodating economic, social, and environmental constraints (utility optimization). Land managers evaluate expected outcomes of their land use decisions. If undesired environmental impacts are foreseen, they modify factor allocation (Parker et al, 2003).
52

Microeconomic approaches to land use changes explain spatial configurations of changes. Any parcel of land, given its attributes and location, is assumed to be allocated to the use that earns the highest rent (Parker et al, 2003). This rent is a function of the returns and costs of land conversion, given supply and demand functions of the land market, which is assumed to be competitive. Deforestation, for example, is driven by choices by land managers among alternative rents (Mertens et al, 2000). Microeconomic approaches usually assume that the agents have the ability to make informed predictions and plans and those they are risk minimizers. After exploring all options available to them, individuals make rational decisions based on available information, obligations, and expectations (social as well as economic) to balance anticipated returns and risks.

2.9.2 Systems Perspective The (Ostrom systems/structures et al, 1990). perspective explains as land use change through the organization and institutions of society Institutions, such governments, communities, or markets, operate interactively at different spatial and temporal scales; the institutions link local conditions to global
53

processes and vice versa. Although some institutions are direct drivers of change, other, such as markets, is intricately linked to individual decisions. The systems perspective represents the dynamics of economy environment linkages operating at regional to global scales. It has to cope with issues that include technological innovations, rural urban dynamics, and macroeconomic transformations. The systems perspective highlights, for example, how communities are trapped in a degradation pathway given complex mechanisms that may have their roots outside the area subjected to degradation. For instance, Blaikie and Brookfield (1987) and Kates & Haarman (1992) discuss the process of of poor people with in remote and ecological and land marginalization modernization

marginalization usually follows population growth, agricultural associated mechanization consolidation-inequalities in land tenure in the most fertile and accessible agricultural regions, or other pressures of social or political origin. It leads to migration of poor farmers into areas with a high ecological sensitivity for which existing management practices may be inadequate.

54

2.9.3 OBSERVATIONS MADE FROM REVIEW OF RELEVANT LITERATURE Several issues have arisen from the review of literature and these are summarized as follows; that: 1. In simplest terms, floodplains are areas that are vulnerable to flooding or lands adjoining a river, lake or other water course which has been or may be covered by flood waters. 2. Floodplains offer a diverse array of natural and beneficial functions such as biodiversity, flood retention, pollution control, 3. Any nutrient sink, of food the production, ground water, various recreational facilities and aesthetic values. alteration floodplain through anthropogenic processes and changing land use distorts the natural functions of the floodplain, reduces the floodway, induces flooding and increases the severity of damage to lives and property especially in an event of a flood. 4. There are several major drivers in floodplain change including; human population growth, climate change, species invasion, pollution and finally land use which is a major environmental driver of the condition of fresh water ecosystems. Floodplains are also often the focus of urban and agricultural development. 5. Identifying the causes of land use change requires an understanding of how people make land use decisions and how various factors interact in specific context to influence decision making on land use.
55

6. Decision making on land use is influenced by proximate (direct) causes which generally operate at the local level individual levels. 7. There are also sectoral causes of land use change which include; economic, demographic, institutional and cultural factors, for example, institutionally many land use changes are due to ill defined policies and weak institutional enforcement. 8. In addition, there are several perspectives to understanding land use land cover changes. These include (i)Agent based perspective: this is centered on the general nature and rules of land use decision making by individuals. Local ecosystem managers have many motives, some intentional others unconscious, related to economic, traditional, emotional or biophysical factors which influence how they use land. (ii)Systems based perspective: this however, explains land use change through the organization and institution of society. Institutions such as governments operate interactively at different spatial and temporal scale as drivers of change. 9. The increase in flooding cases in recent years and the heavy economic losses should draw a focus on floodplain protection. Although climate change may be responsible for
56

farms,

house

hold

or

communities

while

underlying (indirect) causes operate at regional or global

these disasters, both land use and river impoundments are alleged to be the main causes behind increased flooding in recent times. 10. The way forward as reviewed by most scholars is through floodplain protection, restoration and management; however restoration is only effective if the strategies employed are those which tend to work with nature rather than against it.

From the foregoing, this study will approach the problem in two ways. First, remote sensing and geographic information system techniques will be used as tools to analyze the temporal changes in land use and cover that have occurred within the period under study. While field surveys will be used in order to understand the socio-economic causes of the changes in land use and land cover along the floodplain. As it has been observed in the cause of reviewing existing literature, several factors tend to influence decision making including population increase, economic factors cost of land and rents, and institutional factors among others, all tend to favour or otherwise how land use change occur. The study will thus focus on these factors with a view to understanding the problem and finally suggesting solutions. USE SUSTAINABILITY CONCEPT AS THE FRAMEWORK WITHIN WHICH THE STUDY REVOLVES

57

CHAPTER THREE METHODOLOGY

A combination of remote sensing, GIS techniques, ground truths and field work are used for the analysis of land use changes in the floodplain of River Kaduna. The procedure for data collection, preparation and analysis is presented thus: 3.1 MATERIALS AND INSTRUMENTS

Windows Vista 32-bits operating system HP Desk jet 1500 series printer Garmin 76CSX GPS hand held receiver CD ROM Flash Drive Soft wares: Arc GIS version 9.3
58

 ERDAS imaging version 9.1 Google Earth version 5.3 Geographic Calculator (Geocal) Data Sets: SPOT Xs imagery, 1995, resolution- 20 m Quick bird imagery, 2005, resolution- 0.6 Quick bird imagery, 2009, resolution- 0.6 m Topographic map of Kaduna metropolis sheet 32 1:250,000 scale;

3.2 METHODS 3.2.1 PRE- FIELD OR INDOOR PREPARATIONS Relevant text books, maps, journals, articles, sheets and previous dissertations related to the topic, are consulted, internet websites, Google archives of maps of Kaduna metropolis showing River Kaduna are consulted, and this greatly helped in understanding the basic concepts, developing an extensive literature review and to familiarize the researcher on the topic. 3.2.1.1 Land use land cover classification Based on the available data source or images observed, the Anderson et al (1972, 2002) classification scheme was used as a guide in grouping the features on the images into six (6) general or major classes. These include bare surface/rock outcrop, Built

59

up land, farmlands, vegetal cover, water body and wetlands. Each of these classes were further defined and described. 3.2.1.2 Pre field Interpretation The visual interpretation technique was used as it is the most intuitive way to extract information from remote sensing images based on human ability to relate colors and patterns in an image to real world features. Thus the usual interpretation elements such as; shape, size, pattern, texture, tone and association as well as the familiar previous local knowledge of the area under study is used by the interpreter to extract relevant information from the image and in identifying the features and their locations. Features that were unclear are marked for field verification.

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FIG 2: analysis

Methodology flow chart for temporal land use change

(Adopted from Chaudhary et al. 2008, with slight modification)

- The Three satellite imageries of the metropolis showing river Kaduna and the floodplain area are used both for analyzing land use changes and for the determination of floodplain boundary area using remote sensing and GIS techniques.
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- To delineate the floodplain area (see fig 1) the topographical map of Kaduna metropolis sheet 32 of a scale of 1:250 000 was examined and it was identified that the map depicted areas liable to flooding to correspond to the contour line 2100 feet. This was used to generate a digital elevation model (DEM) using Arc GIS 9.3. The DEM was then converted to a contour map and used to extract the 2100 contour limit. This was digitized and polygonized to obtain the floodplain area.

3.2.2 FIELD METHODS Reconnaissance survey was conducted along some selected sections of the Kaduna River floodplain; areas that are known to be most affected during previous flood incidences were visited, this included Abubakar Kigo road new extension, Ungwan Rimi ramat close, Malali areas including village and water board reserviour plant , Rafin Guza, Ungwan Dosa behind legislative quaters, Nasarawa around the western byepass bridge, Barnawa, Asikolaye and Bakin ruwa in Rigasa, Gamji park, Kaduna New Millennium city bridge and surrounding areas of Danbushiya village close to the river, Kamazo bridge areas, then under construction. This greatly helps in observing the present situation on ground, pictures were also taken, and it was observed that buildings, farming activities and other uses have intruded into the areas of the floodplain. Areas of the floodplain that are observed to be severely encroached by human activities are thus noted as

62

interest areas for interviews, fieldworks and other aspects of the study.

3.2.2.1 Field Verification During pre field interpretation of the 3 data sets (1995, 2005 and 2009 image) after careful examination by the interpreter it was observed that 2 features were confusing and unclear to the interpreter and as such their actual use could not be presumed. This necessitated a ground truth or field verification so as to resolve these doubtful cases. This verification was done on the most recent image of 2009. The Garmin 76CSX hand held GPS receiver was used for the survey to take two points on the ground, the area which appear to be like a farmland because of its geometrical shape was observed on the ground to be the main cemetery at Tudun Wada, thus 2 GPS point readings were taken at the cemetery; Point 1: 327157 (easting) 1161665 (northing) and Point 2: 327203 (easting) 1162351 (northing). The cemetery was thus included as a bare surface in the classification. Another doubtful feature was around ungwan muazu in the western part of the metropolis. The GPS was also used to take readings at Point 3: 322643 (easting) 1163018 (northing) and Point 4: 323505 (easting) 1162175 (northing). The feature was also observed to be a bare surface and included in the classification. 3.2.3 POST FIELD METHODS
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DATA ANALYSIS To analyze and manipulate the data the following is done: 3.2.3.1 GIS Analysis GIS analysis was performed on the interpreted data. The images are first imported or downloaded into ArcGIS 10.1 software, using Arcmap tools visual classification and onscreen digitizing is done for the two dimensional features which are represented as lines and polygons. To further create visual distinction among the six interpreted classes namely the bare surface/rock outcrop, built up land, farmland, vegetal cover, water body and wet land, symbolization was done which involves representing polygon features by symbol colors. Area extents of all polygon features were automatically computed by the system, this was done by creating a data field for each area of the land use class. The area is calculated in meter square which was then converted to hectares for easy manipulation and analysis. 3.2.3.2 Geo referencing and post processing The images acquired were already geo referenced thus there was no need for geo referencing, however, post processing was conducted which helps in data manipulation and includes; Sub-setting, which was done in order to extract the study area out
of the original images. This also makes it possible for easy manipulation of images, saving of computer space and making image ready for the analysis. All this was carried out using Earth Resource Data Acquisition System (ERDAS) imaging software version 9.1 - Editing
64

Editing of maps was carried out using editing tools in Arc GIS 9.3 Arc map in order to check overlaps, undershoots and overshoots in the digitized maps. Finalization and making of land use maps for the three time periods of study was made which are used for the land use land cover change analysis.

65

66

67

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3.2.3.3 Presentation methods Descriptive statistics using graphs, tables, percentages and charts are used to present the results. 3.2.4 QUESTIONNAIRE ADMINISTRATION AND INTERVIEW Questionnaires and interviews were conducted with people living and or farming along the floodplain area. The purpose of these is in order to know some of the causes of the changes in land uses and to find out why people engage in those uses despite the dangers to life and property along the floodplain. 3.2.4.1 INTERVIEW METHOD: The interview method was used in order to sort for the opinion of government officials saddled with the responsibility of development control at Kaduna Urban Development Authority (KASUPDA) and environmental management at Kaduna Environmental Protection Authority (KEPA). Another interview was conducted with farmers practicing irrigation or dry season farming along the floodplain in order to find out why they engage in this land use despite the risk to flooding and whether or not the changing dynamics of other uses affects their activities. The interview method is used for the farmers because it is assumed that most of the respondents may not be literate enough to answer a structured questionnaire. Thus the interview questions were interpreted to the respondents during the interview in order to facilitate understanding so as to get the right responses. 3.2.4.2 SAMPLING TECHNIQUE
69

Sampling is necessary because it will be practically impossible to study a whole population in a research; it has thus become mandatory to make a selection of a representative from a population to be studied which is the whole idea of sampling. In this study, a non-probability sampling technique specifically the Convenience (Availability) sampling technique was used in administering the questionnaire for built-up structural land uses along the floodplain and for the interviews that are conducted with farmers engaged in agricultural land use on the floodplain. The convenience sampling rely on available subjects such as stopping residents or people living on the streets and locations on the floodplain and visiting farmers in their farms especially in the morning when the respondents may be available. The sampling population includes all those living or farming along river Kaduna floodplain. A total of 103 questionnaires are administered for the built-up areas of the floodplain and 31 respondent farmers were interviewed based on availability sampling. For the interview with government officials, the purposive sampling technique is used in which case officials directly involved with development control at the relevant agencies are interviewed, in order to get appropriate responses.

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CHAPTER FOUR RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

4.1 PRESENTATION OF RESULTS The result of the Visual Interpretation, on-screen digitization and Mapping of the various Land use and Land Cover categories along the flood plain area of River Kaduna is indicated in the three 3 thematic maps in figure 4, 5, and 6 which shows a considerable change. From the classification adopted, six (6) major Land use Land cover classes were mapped. The total area covered by the study is calculated to be 8124.9 hectares. A summary of the area statistics of the different Land use types for the 3 consecutive years calculated from data input is shown in Table 1. In this chapter, the six classes will be briefly described or defined. The Anderson et.al (1972) Land use classification method is used as a guide to arrive at the categories used. Bar graph was used to illustrate the area coverage of the classes as indicated in the results in Table 1. 4.1.1LAND USE LAND COVER CATEGORIES AND RESULTS 4.1.1.1 Bare surface/Rock outcrop: This comprises of areas

along the floodplain which are either cleared for development or

71

rock outcrops which are quarried. From the result in table 1, bare surface or rock outcrop constitutes 53.02 ha in 1995, 67.40ha in 2005 and 119.00 ha in 2009. 4.1.1.2 Built-up Land: This includes all structural

encroachments into the floodplain area including lands used for residential, industrial, municipal, commercial, TABLE 1. SIZE OF MAJOR LAND USE TYPES OF THE FLOODPLAIN AREA IN 1995, 2005 AND 2009
Land use land cover 1995 category Area Bare Surface/Rock Outcrop 3130.95 Built-up land Farmland Vegetal Cover Water Body Wetlands TOTAL
2007.17 2499.40 334.00 100.40 8124.9 (hectare s) 53.02

2005
Area (hectare s) 67.40 3637 2873.2 1122.30 332.30 92.10 8124.9

2009
Area (hectar es) 119.00 4032.6 6 2592.8 0 985.40 310.40 84.66 8124.9

Transport and other built- up areas. Built-up land from table 1, covers 3130.95 ha in 1995, 3637 ha in 2005 and 4032.66 of the geographical area in 2009. 4.1.1.3 Farmlands: This comprises of lands used for agricultural

activities such as rain-fed agriculture and dry season farming along the floodplain. Broadly, agricultural lands are areas used primarily for production of food and fiber, the chief indications of agricultural activity will be distinctive geometric fields (Anderson
72

et.al. 1972). Results in table 1, Shows that farmlands constitutes 2007.17 ha in 1995, 2873.2 ha in 2005 and 2592.8 ha in 2009. 4.1.1.4 has Vegetal Cover: This includes areas left fallow or which vegetation, grasses, trees and other natural

riparian

vegetation found along the river banks or the floodplain. Table 1 indicates that vegetal cover constitutes 2499.4 ha of the total area in 1995, 1122.3 ha in 2005 and 985.4 ha in 2009. 4.1.1.5 Water Body: This includes the Main River, reservoir,

lakes and streams among others along the flood plain area. The result shows that water bodies occupy 334 ha in 1995, 332.3 ha in 2005 and 310.4 ha in 2009. 4.1.1.6 Wetlands: These are areas that are not inundated

throughout the year, like the water body. The water table in such areas is at, near, or above the land surface for a significant part of most years. The hydrologic regime is such that aquatic or hydrophytes vegetation is established, although alluvial and tidal flats may be non-vegetated (Anderson et. al 1972).Examples include marshes, swamps, mudflat, and seasonally wet or flooded basins. From the result in table 1, Wetland occupy 100.4 ha of the total area in 1995, 92.10ha in 2005 and 84.66ha in 2009.The results of the above described classes are graphically illustrated in the Bar- chart on figure 3.

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FIG. 3: Multiple Bar Chart showing areas in hectares covered by land use, land cover categories among the 3 period years .

Note: Y axis = unit multiplied by 1000 hectares

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75

76

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TABLE 2: COMPARISON

OF

AREAS

OF

LAND

USE

CHANGE

BETWEEN 1995 AND 2005, AND BETWEEN 2005 AND 2009

Land use land Cover type 1995 land cover area(h a)
53.02

2005 land cover area (ha)

67.40

2009 land cover area (ha)

119.00

Bare Surface/Rock Outcrop Built-up land Farmland Vegetal Cover

Change in (ha) Between 19952005 +14.38 +506.0

Change in (ha) between 20052009 +51.60 +395.66

3130.9 5 2007.1 7 2499.4 0 334.00 100.40 8124.9

3637 2873.2 1122.30

4032.66 2592.80 985.40

Water Body Wetlands TOTAL

332.30 92.10 8124.9

310.40 84.66 8124.9

+866.0 3 1377.1 0 -1.70 -8.30 -

-280.40 -136.90 -21.90 -7.44 -

Note: ha= Hectares

Positive sign (+) indicates increase in area (ha) of land cover class Negative sign (-) indicates decrease in area (ha) of land cover class

A comparison is made between the three periods of study, which also help to determine the values in hectares either lost or gained among the six categories land cover as shown in table 2. The proportion of change between the years under study is being made to determine the areas in hectares either lost or gained between the duration.

78

From the result in table 2 it is indicated that from 1995 to 2005 bare surface/rock outcrop gained 14.38 hectares while between 2005 and 2009 it further gained 51.6 hectares. Built-up land from table 2 gained 506.05 ha of the study area between 1995 and 2005; it also gained more area by 395.66 ha between 2005 and 2009, this signifies it as the most dominant land use encroaching into the floodplain area. Farmlands according to table 2, gained more of the total area by 866.40 ha between 1995 and 2005, but lost about 280.40ha between 2005 and 2009, signifying that more farmlands are changed and replaced by more built-up lands. Vegetal cover lost about 1377.10 ha between 1995 and 2005 and also lost 136.9 ha between 2005 and 2009. This loss is mostly to both Farmlands and built-up land. Water body lost only 1.70 ha from 1995 and 2005 and 21.9 ha between 2005 and 2009 of the total area covered. Wetlands lose 8.30 ha of its area between 1995 and 2005, and also lose 7.44 ha of its area between 2005 and 2009.

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Plate 4: Flooded buildings at malali encroached area of floodplain, 2012 floods

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Plate 5: Erected structure in the middle of River Kaduna floodplain

Plate 6: A Built up encroached structure at Kigo road new extension along river Kaduna floodplain, aside farms, stone pitched drain and solid waste dump.

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4.2 PRESENTATION OF THE RESULTS OF ADMINISTERED QUESTIONNAIRE. This aspect of the study focuses on the socio-economic factors that serve as the driving force which causes the people to engage in the land uses along the flood plain area. 4.2.1: A Administration of Questionnaires total of 103 questionnaires are administered, the

questionnaire was divided into two (2) parts. Part 1 asks respondents personal information, while part 2 inquires relevant questions on the problem. A maximum of 15 questionnaires and a minimum of 7 were administered per area. On average 10 questionnaires are administered per area. This is indicated in Table 3. The areas were chosen based on the most affected areas during most floods in the metropolis especially the floods of 2003 and 2009. Questionnaires are administered particularly around areas or streets very close to the River and the flood plain with the belief that people around these areas must have been affected by previous floods and as such might give the required responses. Thus effort was being made to ensure that respondents are people residing in the area by first asking the respondent whether or not if they are living around the area of interest. Frequency tables and percentages are used to analyze and present the results from the questionnaire administration. Pie
82

charts are also used to depict some important aspect of the responses.

Table 3:- Distribution of Questionnaires

S/ N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Areas

of

Questionnaire Number Questionnaires

of

Distribution

Administered Kigo Road New Extension 15 Kabala Costain/Doki 14 Malali 9 Ungwan Dosa 7 Kawo Rafin Guza 10 Tudun Wada Askolaye 10 Rigasa Bakin Ruwa 10 Nasarawa 10 Ungwar Rimi Ramat 10 8 103

Close 10 Barnawa TOTAL Source: Field work 2012 From table 3, out of

103

questionnaires,

15

are

administered at Kigo Road New Extension, 14 at Kabala Costain and Doki area, 9 at Malali, 7 at Ungwan Dosa and 8 at Barnawa. The remaining 50 are administered (10 per area) at Rigasa, Nasarawa, Tudun Wada, Rafin Guza and Ramat Close at Ungwan Rimi.

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To analyze the results of the administered questionnaires, Table 4 and Table 5 are used to summarize the overall responses from the questionnaires. These would be explained more clearly in the analyses and presentation of the results. 4.2.2 Analyses of Questionnaire Part 1 Personal Data

Table 4: Summary of respondents Personal Data Personal Data Sex Age Range Type Male Number of (%) Percentage 88.35 11.65 49.51 29.13 21.36 49.51 50.49 18.45 27.18 41.75 12.62

Respondents 91

Female 12 18 30 years 51 31 40 years 30 41 and 22 51 52 4 19 28 8 43 13 above Married Single 1 members 5 members Nil member 9 and above Civil servants 15

Marital Status Family Size

14.56 24.27 61.17

Occupation Students Others Source:- Field work 2012.

25 63

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4.2.2.1

PRESENTATION OF RESULTS

Table 4 shows that 91 respondents constituting 88.35% of the total respondents sampled (103) are male while 12 respondents having 11.65% of the total sample are female. In terms of Age range, the analysis in table 4 indicates that 51 respondents constituting 49.51% of the total sample are within the age range of between 18 and 30 years while 30 respondents (29.13%) are within the ages of 31 and 40 years. 22 respondents constituting 21.36% of the total sample of 103 are those that are 41 years and above. From Table 4, 51 respondents constituting 49.51% are married while 52 respondents constituting 50.49 percent of the total respondents were single. In terms of family size, 19 respondents constituting 18.45% indicated that they have family size of between 1 4 members while 28 respondents constituting 27.18% of the total sample have between 5 8 members, 13 respondents constituting 12.62% have family members of between 9 and above while 43 respondents (41.75%) indicated that they have no family members or are single at present. From the table 4 above, in terms of occupation 15 respondents constituting 14.56% of the total sample indicated that they are civil servants, while 25 respondents constituting 24.27% are students. Finally, 63 respondents constituting 61.17% of the total sample indicated they have one of the various
85

occupations

including;

business,

tailoring,

self-employed,

unemployed, applicant, engineers, traders, farming, carpentry, journalism, retired, consultants, sales girl, restaurant owner or eatery, politics, builder, clergy and house wife as their occupation.
4.2.3 ANALYSIS OF QUESTIONNAIRE PART 2: QUESTIONS.This section of the questionnaire asks relevant questions on the problem and the result is summarized in table 5.

Table 5: Summary of Responses from questionnaire part 2 Question Residency Type Cost of Land (50 x 100) in Area. Tenancy Rates Area Type Landlord Tenant 500,000 1.5m 1.6m 2.5m 2.6m above No idea Low Moderate High No response Yes Number of (%) Respondents Percentage 34 33.01 69 37 23 21 22 19 24 58 02 70 33 11 19 40 33 13 15 67 66.99 35.92 22.33 20.39 21.36 18.45 23.30 56.31 1.94 67.96 32.04 10.68 18.45 38.83 32.04 12.62 14.56 65.05

in

Is flooding a problem in area?

No Flooding Once Experience Twice 3 times above No response What Low cost of causes land Developmen Low cost of
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t on Flood rent plain area? Population 4 explosion 4 All the 3 above Other Reasons Are Existing Yes 52 Structures in danger on flood plain area? No 51 Source: Field work 2012 4.2.3.1 PRESENTATION OF RESULT

3.88 3.90

50.49

49.51

The analysis in table 5 shows that 34 respondents constituting 33.01% of the total sample are landlords while 69 respondents constituting 66.99 percent are tenants in their area. Moreover, the 33.01% of those that are landlords gave various reasons such as, affordability of land at the time they bought it, profitable development due to high value of land, strategic location and accessibility, high brow area, stable power supply and personal choice as reasons why they choose to develop lands along the flood plain area. The 66.99 percent who were tenants also gave various reasons such as affordability of rents, proximity to place of work, environmental conduciveness, convenience and accessibility, business opportunities, water supply, necessity and personal preferences as reasons why they choose to reside in the area of interest.
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Table 5 also indicates that, in terms of cost of land in their area, 37 respondents constituting 35.92% of the sample indicated that a 50 x 100 land in their area cost about between 500,000 and 1.5 million Naira, 23 respondents (22.33%) shows that land cost between 1.6 and 2.5million while 21 respondents (20.39%) indicated that land cost 2.6 million naira and above; however, 22 respondents (21.36%) said they have no idea how much land cost in their area. It can be observed from the above results that land is relatively costly around the flood plain area; this is especially true in areas visited such as malali, Ungwar Rimi, Ungwan Dosa, while areas such as Tudun wada, Asikolaye, Bakin Ruwa Rigasa have cheaper costs compared to others. Thus it can be deduced that in Highbrow areas, locational advantage is what drives development despite the high cost of land. While in low income areas along the flood plain, low or moderate cost of land is what drives development despite the risk involved; people also believe that floods are occasional occurrences. From table 5, 19 respondents (18.45%) indicated that tenancy rates are low in their area, 24 respondents (23.30%) indicated that rents are moderate and affordable, while 58 respondents (56.31%) of the total sample shows that rents are high and 1.94 percent indicated no response. This means that tenancy rates are high in most of the areas, a total of low plus moderate tenancy rates constituting 41.75% may also be those

88

residents that are driven by low or moderate rent rates to reside in their areas. From table 5, 67.96% of the total respondents sampled said yes flooding is a problem in their area along the flood plain while 32.04% said flooding is not a problem in their area. Moreover the 67.96% who said yes to flooding as a problem also corresponds to the sum of the percentage of those who experience flooding either once (10.68%), twice (18.45%) and 3 times and above (38.83%). However 32.04% indicates no response to flooding experience which corresponds to the percentage of those who indicated that flooding is not a problem in their area. From the above observations majority of the respondents administered have experienced flooding and are as such relevant for the study.

FIG 7: Pie chart depicting responses on drivers of floodplain change Source: field work 2012

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FIG 8: Pie chart depicting respondents flood experience Source: field work 2012 In terms of what causes development on the flood plain area, from table 5, 12.62% of the respondents sampled indicated low cost of land as the driving force for development on the flood plain, while 14.56% indicated low cost of rent as what drives or causes this built up developments into the flood plain. However 65.05% of the respondents sampled indicated that population explosion in the metropolis as the driving force leading to encroachment of build-up land into areas of the flood plain. This may be true because existing literature has shown that the MAXLOCK AND SPENSER 1967 master plan of Kaduna metropolis was projected for a population of about 300,000 people without having to spread beyond the physical boundaries of the River Kaduna. This projection have since been exceeded because the
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most recent population census of 2006 shows that Kaduna north has 364, 575 while Kaduna south has 402,731(Federal Gazette, 2009)also include Igabi and Chikun as part of the metropolis the sum of which make up the metropolis. Moreover 3.88% of the respondents indicated that all the 3 causes above are driving forces for development in their area while 3.90% of the respondents indicated other reasons such as poverty, Breeze or ventilation and even safety in times of crises as what they feel causes development in their floodplain area where they reside. Finally, 50.49% of the total respondents sampled as indicated in table 5, said Yes, that the Existing structures in their area is in danger on the floodplain, while 49.51% of the respondents indicated No that the existing structures where they live is in no threat whatsoever on the flood plain area.

Table 6: Personal details

Personal detail Age

Type 20-40 years

NO. respondent 09
91

of Percentage( %) 29.03

Marital status Family size

41 & Above Married Single 1-10 members

22 27 04 18 13

70.97 87.10 12.90 58.06 41.94

11 & Above Source: Field work,2012

4.3

PRESENTATION OF THE RESULT OF INTERVIEW WITH The purpose of this section is to find out why the farmers

FARMERS. engage in this land use along the flood plain despite the risk to flooding and how the changing dynamics and pattern of other uses affects their activities. 4.3.1 The Interview A total of 31 farmers were interviewed and the questions were interpreted to them for
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easy

comprehension,

their

responses were then written by the researcher as the interview progresses. Although irrelevant responses were sometimes given by the respondents who thought the interviewers are government agents, efforts were however made to ensure that the interview is on course and relevant information are sieved discussions. The interview question was in two parts. Part 1 asks personal details while part 2 inquires relevant questions on the problem. This is summarized in table 6 and table 7 from general

4.3.2 Analysis of Results The result in table 6, indicates that 29.03% of the total respondents sampled (31) are within the age range of between 20 and 40 years while 70.97% are within the ages of 41 years and above. The results also indicate that 87.10% of the sample is married and 12.90% are single, this shows that the sampled respondents are mostly elderly and responsible or matured people. Finally, 58.06% have family size of between 1 and 10 members while 41.94% of the respondents have 11 and above as family size.

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Table 7: Summary of responses from interviewed farmers Any damage to Questions your crops? It is risky to Land farm on the ownership floodplain? Ever sold part Yes Type No Yes Inherited No Bought Borrowed Yes 26 83.87 Number of Percentage (%) 5 16.13 respondents 12 38.71 14 45.16 19 61.29 2 6.45 11 4 4 15 11 12 24 35.48 12.90 12.90 48.39 35.48 38.71 77.42 54.84 22.58 9.68 90.32 9.68

of your No Rented Why farm on Water farmland? Other reasons floodplain? Is developing availability Yes the a threat to fertility Other reasons Yes No

and soil 17 floodplain Water No 7 3 28 3

your farming? Ever experienced flooding?

The result of the analysis in table 7 indicates that 45.16% of the total respondents interviewed said they owned their farmland through inheritance from parents or grandparents, 6.45% said they bought it, while 35.48% of the respondents indicated that they borrowed the farmlands from the original owners, who probably are hoping for the value of the land to increase so as to sell or else develop it in the near future. However 12.90% said they have rented the farm from the original owners. In terms of why the farmers prefer to farm on the flood plain area rather than other available land, the result shows that 35.48% of the sample indicated that it is water availability that
94

attracts them to the floodplain while 54.84% said both water availability and soil fertility is what attracts them to farm on the floodplain area. However, 9.68% of the respondents gave other reasons such as the possibility of farming during both rainy and dry season, crop requirements such as sugar cane, rice and vegetables which they plant as their reasons for using the floodplain area. Moreover, table 7 indicates that 90.32% of the respondents said that yes they have experienced flooding while only 9.68% said no they have not, which may, probably represent newcomers or farmers using the floodplain. As regards to damage to their crops in an event of flooding, 83.87% of the sample said yes there was a considerable damage to their farm produce when floods occur while 16.13 respondents indicated that there has been no damage to their crops. The results in table 7 also indicates that 38.71% of the farmers interviewed said yes they consider it risky to use the floodplain for their agricultural activities, while the majority of the respondents constituting 61.29% said they do not

95

Plate 7: Interview with farmers; source field work 2012.

Consider it as dangerous to farm along the floodplain, since to them, floods occur only infrequently in fact the benefits they drive far outweigh any risk. From the result in table 7, only 12.90% of the farmers interviewed said yes they have sold part of their farmlands, while 48.39% of the total respondents sampled indicated they have not, however about 38.71% gave other reasons such as, government revocation and reallocation of part of their farms to developers sometimes with little or no compensation, others indicated that
96

people just claim that the lands are allocated to them and such part of their land are simply confiscated and developed. Finally, the result in table 7 indicated that 77.42% of the total respondents sampled said yes that they feel threatened by the encroachment of development into their farms as this means a reduction in their farm size and consequently their means of livelihood. Others even observed that they dont even know how they would survive when their farmlands are eventually confiscated because even where compensations are paid, it is so meager that they cannot use it to eke out a living meaning they could be out of business. However 22.58% of the respondents said they do not feel any threat, in fact to them it is a normal process for farms to be replaced by buildings especially in a rapidly expanding city like Kaduna, and they also believe that there is a point close to the river beyond which you cannot develop, they therefore hope that those areas can still be used for their farming activities. 4.4 RESULT OF INTERVIEW WITH GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS Interviews were conducted with officials of development control at Kaduna Urban Planning and Development Authority KASUPDA and officials of Kaduna Environmental protection Agency (KEPA). Prior to the main interview the questions were given to the officials to familiarize themselves and be prepared before the interview proper.

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As regards to whether or not if there are rules restricting the use of the floodplain to erect development, all the officials interviewed replied in the affirmative and further explained that in the case of KASUPDA it is the responsibility of the agency to oversee all activities of development in the metropolis and the state as a whole, in fact developers are required to submit building plans and relevant documents for inspection of proposed sites before any development commences. The agency also ensures that proposed sites has no negative planning implication before granting approvals. Whereas KEPA officials indicated that any project including residential buildings such as duplex, buildings or housings estates must first undergo EIAEnvironmental Impact Assessment by a professional team at KEPA, which will at the end produce a report indicating both the positive and negative implications of the proposed project. Where the report shows substantial negative effects, KEPA orders the abandoning of such projects, but the problem is developers bypass the normal processes required. The officials further explained that, one of the objectives of KEPA is achieving sustainable development through minimizing the impact of physical development on the ecosystems of the state including the floodplains and raising public awareness and promoting understanding of the essential linkages between the environment and development. In an event of a breach of the rules, KASUPDA officials first issue stop notice, and then embark on punching holes or in
98

extreme cases the eventual demolition of encroached structures. They also ensure refusal of granting of certificate of occupancy for such areas that are liable to flooding on the floodplain area. Whereas officials at KEPA indicated that offenders are issued abatement notice, mobile court summons and in some cases arrest are made where tenants occupy unapproved areas. Fines and charges are also made depending on the nature of the offence as contained in the KEPA Law No. 7 of 2010. However all the officials agreed that the effort so far used by government have not been very successful in addressing the situation and that new strategies in addition to existing ones should be introduced. As regards to land ownership by farmers, the officials said that most land titles along the floodplain are customary or local government certificates with probably a few state certificates. They recommend that approval for using the floodplain should be preferably for orchard purposes and not for construction. In terms of how best the government should manage the floodplain to forestall disasters during floods; the officials suggested that the government should not issue planning approval for residential purposes in riparian areas, drainage should be properly channeled and new ones created, and refuse dump sites should be developed to stop waste dumping and clogging of drainages which sometimes induces flooding. Trees should be planted to stabilize the natural conditions of the floodplain.
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TABLE 8. AREAS OF MAJOR LAND USE TYPES OF THE FLOODPLAIN AREA IN 1995, 2005 AND 2009 (and their %)
Land use land cover 1995 category Area Bare Outcrop Built-up land Farmland Vegetal Cover Water Body Wetlands TOTAL
(hectare s) Surface/Rock 53.02 3130.95 2007.17 2499.40 334.00 100.40 8124.9

2005
% 0.65 38.5 4 24.7 0 30.7 6 4.11 1.24 100 Area (hectare s) 67.40 3637 2873.2 1122.30 332.30 92.10 8124.9 % 0.83 44.7 6 35.4 0 13.8 1 4.09 1.13 100

2009
Area (hectar es) 119.00 4032.6 6 2592.8 0 985.40 310.40 84.66 8124.9 % 1.47 49.6 3 31.9 1 12.1 3 3.82 1.04 100

4.5

DISCUSSION OF RESULTS: A systematic way of analysis for land use change is to first

have the total area for the different land use classes for the
100

different duration and compare the various maps, in other words this is referred to as temporal analysis. Accuracy in interpretation and measurement of these changes is thus very important. To really understand the trend of change in the land use land cover classes the percentage of the uses is calculated as indicated in table 8.The composite maps in Fig 9, illustrate the pattern of changes and is used for the comparison. The result of the temporal land use change analysis is also corroborated with the results of interviews and questionnaire administration or other relevant literature in the discussions. From the result in table 8, bare surface and rock outcrop increased from 0.65% to 0.83% and 1.47% in 1995, 2005 and 2009 respectively. Although bare surface and rock outcrop are classified together, it is not expected that the area of rock outcrop increases, rather it is the bare surface that must have increased as a result of clearing of areas of the floodplain which are intended for future development. The most glaring change and conversion is indicated by the result of built up land (table 8, Fig 9.) which increased considerably from 38.54% in 1995 to 44.76% in 2005 and 49.63% of the total area in 2009. This means there has been a progressive expansion in structural development into the floodplain area there by leading to reduction of the floodway and concretization of the natural surfaces which would have aided natural infiltration and decrease in run-off; it also means more
101

property are in danger especially in an event of flood. The expansion of built up land into the floodplain areas of the river within Kaduna metropolis may not be unconnected with the cities being a center and capital territory since colonial times to the present as a result of which it has experienced unprecedented growth and investment in industrial development and commercial activities and an influx of people from various parts of the country. It is estimated that the population in Kaduna has grown rapidly from 40,000 in 1952 to 149,000 in 1963 , to an estimated 150,000 Partners) in 1965( Kaduna 1917-1967-2017 Max Lock and and 500,000 in 1984. The final results of the 2006

census, puts the population of the metropolitan area at around 767,306 (Federal Gazette, February 2009). Moreover, the significant intrusion of built up land as against other land uses with the attendant consequences conforms to the findings of Sheppard (2007) who presented a highly relevant information on built up areas of cities and their change over time. Their work revealed that the spatial distribution of urban population in nearly 90 cities surveyed is by and large not the result of conscientious planning. One of the key messages is that cities in all regions must plan early and much more carefully to accommodate and disperse the impact of over concentration of people and economic activities in order to avoid large scale catastrophes that will otherwise ensue. Similarly, in the case of Kaduna metropolis, the intent of the proposals of the MAXLOCK and Partners (1967-2017) master plan of the city has not been
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effectively thus

translated

and

implemented

into

an

envisaged

physical framework, partly due to institutional failure, this has resulted in creating an undesirable urban growth pattern According to the United Nations (2006), the total global urban population is expected to double from 2 to 4 billion over the next 30 to 35 years; an unwanted side effect of this process of rapid urbanization is the increased susceptibility towards flooding as a result of concentration of people and assets in flood prone areas many urbanized areas are located along major water bodies, further more climate change may cause floods to occur more frequently and severely (Veerbeek et al. 2008). The results of questionnaire administration corroborates the above assertions in that a majority of the respondents, precisely 67.96%, indicated they have experienced flooding and that it is a problem in their area as opposed to 32.04% who indicated it is not. However 50.49% of the respondents also indicated that the existing developments in their area are in danger of being washed away by floods as opposed to 49.51% who indicated it is not. Moreover 65.5% of the sample indicated that population increase in Kaduna metropolis is the major driver of floodplain encroachment and change in land use as opposed to 12.62% who indicated low cost of land and 14.56% who indicated low cost of rent as drivers of change. Again, the land area significantly impacted by human activities may increase from 15-20% to 50-90% within 50 years, (DFID report R8130, 2003).

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and pressure on floodplains will be among the highest (UNEP, 2001). Farmlands as indicated in table 8, covers 24.70% in 1995, it however increased to 35.40% in 2005 and then declined to 31.91% of the study area in 2009. The composite map in Fig-9 illustrate this change clearly, and shows that initially vegetation along the floodplain area is cleared and replaced by farmlands which are later gradually being phased out by built-up land especially in the Western part of the River. The map in Fig-9 shows that there are more farmlands along the floodplain especially in the Eastern part of the metropolis and more built-up land in the northern, western and southern parts of the River Kaduna. Corroboratively, the result of interview with farmers shows that about 77.42% of the respondents interviewed indicated that they feel threatened by encroachment of other uses especially the revocation and reallocation of their farms for building structures as opposed to 22.58% who do not. Moreover, a majority of the respondents (about 90.32%) indicated they have experienced flooding and 83.87% said it damaged their crops as opposed to 9.68% who indicated they have not. Also, 38.71% of the sample considers it risky to use the floodplain as opposed to 61.21% who do not and think floods are occasional occurrence with minimal risk. The invasion of flood plains by humans in search of new land for farming and homes is one of the most important drivers of flood losses in economically developing countries. For instance, in
104

Bangladesh, flood plains occupy 80% of the country and annual flooding (locally known as borsha) is a part of peasant life to which people are resilient, since one-fifth of the country is regularly flooded (Mirza, 2003). Regular flooding is viewed as beneficial; it creates and maintains the high fertility of soils and supports the worlds most densely populated country (average population density is 1209 persons/km2: World Bank 2002). The result in table 8; indicates a sharp decline in vegetal cover which decreased from 30.76% in 1995 to 13.81% in 2005 and 12.13% of the geographical area in 2009. This is clearly shown by the composite map in Fig-9 in which more area was covered by natural vegetation in 1995 which are then modified and converted to other land uses especially built-up land and Agriculture in the preceding years 2005 and 2009. This change has serious implications because the natural ecological balance within the floodplain is altered through human activities, natural habitats, vegetation and other species are gradually replaced by Farmlands and built-up land which leads to alterations in the natural beneficial functions of the Floodplain. Water bodies from table 8 and Fig-9 indicates only a slight decrease in area covered, from 4.11% in 1995, to 4.09% in 2005 and 3.82% of the total area in 2009. This slight change may be due to variation between the imagery of the rainy and dry season which may differ. Wetlands, from the result in table 8, cover a small area compared to other land uses. There is a gradual decline in
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wetlands from 1.24% in 1995 to 1.13% in 2005 and 1.04% of the area in 2009. In Fig-9 wetlands as illustrated are shown to occur mostly around areas of the braided channel of River Kaduna. It is however important to state that wetlands are crucial to the natural equilibrium of the floodplain in that, it absorbs flood waters, recharge ground water and filter impurities from water, they also serve as habitat for extraordinary diversity of birds, fish, insects and plant life (Encarta, 2009). Thus any decline no matter how small may offset the balance provided by these habitats. In Asia, more than 5000 km/sq of wetlands are lost every year because of agricultural development, urbanization and dam construction. If this trend continues, which is probable because of rapid economic and demographic development, by 2025 an additional 105 000 km2 of wetlands will be converted to other uses, which means the ecological consequences for riverfloodplain ecosystems are expected to be disastrous (Tockner et al. 2008). Finally, the competing transitional changes, modification and conversion among the various land use land cover types by human activities in the floodplain alters the otherwise natural stable conditions provided by natural riparian vegetation and wetlands. . This also induces instability in the river which results in floods. Consequently several cases of floods have become a recurring incident in river Kaduna, instances include the 2003, 2009, 2010 and most recently the September 2012 floods in which residents along the river Kaduna floodplain area were
106

sacked by the flood, about 1500 residents were displaced while over 300 houses were submerged in various parts of the metropolis, affected areas included Makarfi Rd., Air force Rd., Katunga Rd., Rafin guza, Ungwan dosa legislative quarters and Abubakar kigo road new extension(Blueprint Newspaper 13 th Sept. 2012). Elsewhere around the country, over 20 states were affected in 2012 by floods claiming several lives and displacing many victims. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) reported that in the northern states alone, over 209 people lost their lives and over 155,000 were displaced. In Adamawa state, 43 people died and 120,000 persons are displaced as a result of flooding caused by the release of excess water from LAGDO dam, in neighboring

107

108

Cameroon, which also affected Taraba and Benue, states (Weekly Trust 22nd Sept. 2012). All these are pointers to the fact that issues on human activities along floodplains deserve serious attention. It is commendable that the Federal Government has constituted a National committee on flood relief and rehabilitation and earmarked # 17.6 billion for flood victims and ordered the construction of more dams, and most importantly the resettlement of flood victims away from floodplain and flood prone areas (Leadership Newspaper Oct. 2012), it is however hoped that these policies will achieve their objectives through full implementation.

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CHAPTER 5 SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1 SUMMARY In recent years, incidences of flooding have become a recurring phenomenon in River Kaduna; instances include the 2003, 2009, 2010 and most recently in September 2012, although these may be attributable to climate change and extreme weather conditions, human activities along the floodplain have only gone further to increase the devastation on human lives and property in addition to alteration This of the has ecological attempted and to environmental equilibrium. study

understand the problem and suggest long term solutions by looking at human conversion and modification of the floodplain area over a defined period as shown by changes in land use and land cover as observed from three (3) satellite images of the study area. Using Remote sensing and G. I. S. techniques a temporal land use land cover analysis was conducted in order to observe the pattern of change. Visual interpretation method and on-screen digitizing are used to map out land use and land cover into six classes and in order to understand the causes and driving forces of these changes, field works are conducted using questionnaire administration and interview methods. The result of the analysis of the images shows a considerable change in the pattern of land use land cover classes
110

among the three time point of study. The trend of changes shows that there is a progressive conversion of natural vegetation areas into farmlands and finally into built up lands. Some of the built up lands have been taken over by the floods. Built up land in the floodplain area has increased from 3130.95 ha, to 3637 ha and 4032.66 ha. Farmlands has changed from 2007.17 ha, to 2873.20 ha, and then decreased to 2592.80 ha. Vegetal cover changed from 2499.40 ha, to 1122.30 ha and 985.40 ha. Bare surface/rock outcrop changed from 53.02 ha, it increased to 67.40 ha and 119.00 ha. Water bodies experience a little change from 334 ha, to 332.3 ha and 310.4 ha. Finally, wetlands changed from 100.4 ha to 92.1 ha and 84. 6ha. The result of administered questionnaire shows that 33.01% of the respondents are landlords who were especially driven by land affordability, profitable development and strategic advantages of location to develop the floodplain while 66.99% of the samples were tenants who were especially attracted by affordable rents, proximity to work place and environmental conduciveness to reside in the area. A majority of the sample, precisely 67.96%, have experienced flooding and indicated that flooding is a problem in their area as opposed to 32.04% who indicated it is not. However, 50.49% of the sample also indicated that the existing developments in their area are in danger of being washed away as opposed to 49.51% who indicated it is not. Moreover 65.5% of the sample indicated that population
111

increase

in

Kaduna

metropolis is the major driver of floodplain encroachment and change in land use as opposed to 12.62% who indicated low cost of land and 14.56% who indicated low cost of rent as drivers of change. Results of interview with farmers indicated that land title along the floodplain is mostly customary with 45.16% of the respondents indicating they own farmlands through inheritance as opposed to 35.48% who borrowed from original owners. Farmers are also driven by water availability and soil fertility as indicated by 54.84% of the sample and 34.48% indicated water availability alone as what attracted them to the floodplain. Majority of the respondents (about 90.32%) indicated they have experienced flooding and 83.87% said it damaged their crops as opposed to 9.68% who indicated they have not. Also, 38.71% of the sample considers it risky to use the floodplain as opposed to 61.21% who do not and think floods are occasional occurrence with minimal risk. About 77.42% of the sample interviewed indicated that they feel threatened by encroachment of other uses especially the revocation and reallocation of their farms for building structures as opposed to 22.58% who do not. The result of interview with government officials indicated that there are regulations restricting the use of the floodplain to erect structures, however all the officials agreed that these regulations are ineffective and unsuccessful and thus there is the need for new strategies to address the problem. They also
112

suggested that riparian areas should be used for orchard purposes and other green uses to avert flooding. 5.2 CONCLUSION From the findings of this study, it can be concluded that the River Kaduna floodplain area has: - Undergone considerable alterations in its natural cover and conditions as shown by the competing transitional changes, modification and conversion in land uses caused by human activities and development. Since water will always have its course, the resulting floods have caused severe damage to life and property when it occurs. Field surveys conducted indicated that a combination of factors such as low cost of land, rent, population increase and failure of government policies and regulations, and a lack of environmental strategies for consciousness floodplain are, in part, and responsible restoration for are influencing decisions to use the floodplain, however, new management imperative in order to save these sensitive ecosystems and avert future losses. 5.3 RECOMMENDATION As it was observed that increase in population and other conditions always make people to use the floodplains for short term economic gains and development, it is imperative that we change these attitudes in order to reduce flood risk. We need to replace this thought process with a new focus on ensuring the
113

long term environmental and economic sustainability of the floodplain ecosystem. To begin with, we need to modify the widespread view of floods as destructive forces of nature. Floods do not cause damage or suffering, our decision about where to live; work and build are the cause. By anticipating the flooding process and planning our development accordingly, we begin to effect positive changes. Instead of controlling the water, we should control how and where we allow human activities to adversely affect it. The following are thus recommended. 1. Government should set a policy that the natural functions and resources of floodplain areas are worthy of protection and should not be sacrificed for human development. A national vision for floodplain management should be enacted that would establish unequivocally the inherent value of these resources and of their role in minimizing flood losses. A standard model for comprehensive watershed planning and management could be produced that would delineate the roles and responsibilities for the federal, state and local governments and the private sector. It should set out goals and criteria that could be tailored to the specific needs of different watersheds to maintain environmental sustainability and reduce flood risk. 2. New development should be prevented from encroaching on to flood prone and environmentally sensitive areas, starting now; future development should avoid flood hazard and
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ecologically sensitive areas. Relevant agencies such as Kaduna State Urban Planning and Development Agency (KASUPDA) should have their regulatory programs identified and revamped by applying new land use planning and floodplain management techniques with emphasis on ensuring floodplain protection and restoration as against emphasis on damage reduction and construction standards and other regulations which assumes that floodplain development is going to occur. Recent efforts by the Kaduna state government to embark on dredging of the river Kaduna to check silting and flooding is indeed commendable, However such effort is only effective in the short term as silting is a continues geomorphologic process , meaning we are only delaying the disaster to a later date instead of solving the problem once and for all. This also negates what environmental sustainability is out to achieve, which is ensuring that the present generation achieve their needs without unnecessarily compromising the ability of future generations to achieve theirs. 3. Since the Kaduna metropolis was initially planned for a projected population of about 300,000 without having to spread beyond the physical & barriers of the major this watercourses (Maxlock Spenser, 1967-2017)

projection is exceeded as indicated by the results of 2006 census of the metropolis which shows that Kaduna north and south local governments which makes up the metropolitan
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area has a population of 767,306 (Federal Gazette, February 2009) thus it was observed that an oversaturation of the metropolitan area is now pushing development into the floodplain areas. The government should provide new layouts for future development which will in turn reduce this pressure. Although new bridges at Danbushiya (new millennium city) and Kamazo are planned for the purpose of opening up the city, however, efforts should be made to avoid a replication of the same mistakes especially in the southeastern part of river Kaduna floodplain. This area which, as shown from the images, is presently predominantly occupied by agricultural land uses should preferably be planned as green areas to ensure ecological and environmental sustainability and avert future losses due to flooding. 4. Where possible, floodplain areas should be reclaimed through removal of existing development from flood prone and environmentally sensitive areas. There is the need to begin a collective pattern of gradual relocation of existing residences and businesses away from flood hazard areas; and also the need to begin a strategic retreat along the river floodplains. People should not be sitting ducks in those risky areas always assuming that floods are occasional occurrences or that hard engineering or reinforcing our structures through stone pitching and concretizing buildings will reduce damage, then when floods occur we await relief
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from government and then go back to the same flood prone area to wait for another round of floods and relief. The billions of naira that is spent on almost a yearly basis for relief can be used otherwise for relocation and redevelopment of new layouts away from flood prone areas. It has been tried in Nigeria, for example, after the floods of year 2010, the Sokoto state government planned to build 1000 units of houses to relocate and resettle the flood victims, #3.6 billion naira worth of houses were being built in 3 local governments of Goronyo (400 units) Gada (350 units) and Silame (250 units) (Weekly Trust Sept. 2012). It is however hoped that corruption and favoritism will not undermine this laudable objective. Although the cost implication and success of relocation and resettlement may seem prohibitive, however if we consider the cost in human lives and property then it is justifiable. 5. There is the need to incorporate into all public and private activity at all levels, respect for, and understanding of, the functions and resources of floodplain areas along our rivers. There should be programs to promote environmental preservation and protection of riparian areas through awareness for and accounting for natural functions and resources. 6. Government should facilitate the gathering and storage of scientific data and water resources information, provide avenue for determining data needs for research and
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development and disseminate the collected information back to the watersheds.

7.

We

should

promote

multidisciplinary

approach

to

floodplain and coastal hazard management by integrating land use planning, hydrology, hydraulics, geomorphology, biology, botany, stream ecology and other fields for a holistic
understanding of floodplain and coastal functions and processes.

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(APPENDIX 1) QUESTIONNAIRE: The questionnaire is aimed at residents or people living in settlements, houses and other built-up land uses along the floodplain. During a preliminary survey, it was observed that residents of these areas are either landlords or tenants, both are however relevant as respondents in administering the questionnaire. The proposed questions are structured as follows: PART 1: PERSONAL DATA 1. SEX : Male ( ) Female ( )

2. AGE Years
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3. MARITAL STATUS: Married ( ) Single ( ) 4. FAMILY SIZE In number 5. OCCUPATION PART 2: QUESTIONS 6. What is the name of this place? ...................... 7. How much does a normal 50 by 100 size land cost here? . 8. Are you a landlord or a tenant

9. If landlord, why do you choose to have and develop land here . 10. If tenant, why do you choose to reside here . . 11. Are tenancy rates low or high in this place?

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12. 13. 14. 15.

Is

flooding

problem

in

this

place?

.. If yes, how many times have you experienced flooding? When was the last flooding? times Do you think the existing structures (houses, buildings, est.) in this place are in danger on the river floodplain? 16. What do you think from among the following is what causes people to reside or develop lands along the floodplain (tick appropriately) (a). Low cost of land (b). Low cost of rent (c). Population explosion leading to expansion and influx of development into the floodplain despite the risk of flooding. (d). other reasons, specify . .. ...

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(APPENDIX 2) INTERVIEW QUESTIONS: FOR FARMERS Introduction PART 1: PERSONAL DATA 1. How old are you? 2. Are you married or single? 3. What is the size of your family? PART 2: QUESTIONS 4. How do you come to posses this land, did you inherit it or buy it? 5. How long have you been farming in this place? 6. Why do you prefer farming along the floodplain rather than on other available land? 7. It is because of the soil fertility, bumper harvest or availability of water from the river throughout the year? 8. Have you ever experienced any case of flooding? 9. When was the last flooding?
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10. 11. 12. 13. 14.

Was there any damage to your farm lands or crops? Do you feel it is risky to practice farming along the Do you feel that the benefits you derive from farming Have you ever sold any part of your farmland over the Do you feel that the buying of your farmlands which

floodplain? on the floodplain justify any risk to flooding? years so that houses are now built on it? are now replaced by buildings is a threat to your means of livelihood?

(APPENDIX 3) INTERVIEW QUESTIONS: FOR GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AT KASUPDA Introduction: I am a postgraduate student from Nigerian Defense Academy conducting a research on the analysis of land use changes along River Kaduna floodplain within the metropolis. It has been observed by the researcher, that several developments and other anthropogenic uses are practiced along River Kaduna floodplain. This consequently increases the severity of damage to life and property especially in an event of a flood. In recent years flood cases have become almost a yearly occurrence with devastating effects. This interview is aimed at finding out how government has been trying to find solutions to the problem.

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Your responses will be treated in strict confidence and will only be used for academic purposes. INTERVIEW QUESTIONS: PERSONAL DATA: 1. What is your age? 2. Are you married or single? 3. What is the size of your family? 4. What is your occupation? QUESTIONS: 5. Are there any existing rules and regulations forbidding the use of the floodplain to erect development? 6. If there are rules, how are they enforced by government agencies like KASUPDA? 7. In an event of a breach of such rules, in what ways do government officials check this breach? 8. Over the years, have the measures so far taken by government, been successful in addressing the situation? 9. I have observed several agricultural practices along the floodplain, how do farmers posses and use those lands, is it by customary tenure or certified by government? 10. How best do you think the government should manage the floodplain to forestall disasters especially during floods?

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(APPENDIX 4) LANDUSE AND LANDCOVER AREA STATISTICS AS COMPUTED BY THE SYSTEM DURING ANALYSIS. (Note: the Area is in mm square is converted to hectares)

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LAND USE TYPE Bare surfac e Built up land Farmla nd Veget al cover Water body Wetla nd

Area mm2(1995)

Area mm2(2005)

Area mm2(2009)

530154.05170 674287.54658 1190633.5634 7 43 31309562.800 36375433.680 40326668.846 169 447 923 20071723.684 374 24993886.142 774 3340229.2501 09 1004363.5734 64 28732041.490 504 11223894.042 887 3323091.9854 09 921170.75238 8 25927864.881 764 9853888.1766 98 3104220.9593 97 846643.07861 3

Conversion: Area in mm2 / 10000 = Area in Hectares

Example: 530154.051707/10,000=53.01...hectares

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