Driving Forces Behind Wind

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THE REGIONAL TRANSMISSION ORGANIZATIONS (RTOS), INDEPENDENT SYSTEM operators (ISOs), and utilities in the United States are coordinating interregional studies and planning their systems to facilitate wind plant deployment and to meet the ever-changing requirements of renewable energy standards. Individual states have passed renewable energy standards (RESs), set goals, and implemented other legislative and public utility commission regulations that require transmission to be built to deliver the renewable energy. Renewable energy grew signicantly in the years 20062009, and changes, such as Californias 33% renewable energy requirement and Indianas renewable energy goal, continue to be made. RTO, ISO, and utility developments are reected in modications that have been made to the wholesale markets, operating practices, planning procedures, and transmission tariffs. Figure 1 shows the footprint of the ten North American RTOs and ISOs and includes the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) as well. Renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and related goals are encouraging the development of renewable resources, especially wind generation. Figure 2 shows the 38 states that have RPSs and related goals for renewable resources. Indiana has also passed a goal for renewable energy. There is no federal requirement for wind or other renewable energy, however. The risk of committing billions of dollars for transmission construction in such an uncertain and always changing environment requires that transmission plans be upgraded every year to determine the best estimate of the transmission capability that will be required in the future. The RTO, ISO, and WECC areas reported in Figure 3 have a collective 166,000 MW renewable energy target for the 20202025 time frame. Of the total, 35% will be supplied by the currently existing renewable generation, of which 27% is supplied by wind generation. There are conceptual plans in place or being formed to provide transmission and generation to satisfy the renewable energy targets. In the area reaching from the Canadian border to the Gulf of Mexico, in a path as wide as North Dakota and Minnesota together, there is a calculated potential of 1,100,000 MW of wind generation with capacity factors greater than 30%. Capacity factors greater than 30% represent most of the wind generation being constructed in the United States. In addition, there is the potential to tap more than 234,000 MW of offshore wind generation along the East Coast of the United States. The potential supply of wind generation is much greater than the 166,000 MW needed to arrive at the current renewable energy targets for 20202025.

By Dale Osborn, Michael I. Henderson, Bradley M. Nickell, Warren Lasher, Charles Liebold, John Adams, and Jay Caspary

Digital Object Identier 10.1109/MPE.2011.942474 Date of publication: 21 October 2011

HORNS REV 1 OWNED BY VATTENFALL, PHOTOGRAPHER CHRISTIAN STEINESS

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Interregional Transmission Planning for U.S. Wind Generation

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Alberta Electric System Operator

MISO

Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator

New Brunswick System Operator

ISO New England New York ISO PJM Interconnection

California ISO Southwest Power Pool Electric Reliability Council of Texas

figure 1. Map of North American RTO and ISO locations.

From the potential supply of wind and other renewable energy sources, potential generators have selected specic projects and placed them into the generation interconnection queues of the RTOs, ISOs, and utilities. These projects respond to bids by utilities alone or as members of an RTO or ISO to obtain wind or other renewable energy to fulll the targets. Usually, there are many more bidders than projects required to supply the energy targets. In addition, generation interconnection queues usually have more projects available for bidding than are required to meet the energy targets at the time of the bidding. The RTO and ISO queue study processes are used to qualify generators for bidding. RTO and ISO queue processes accommodate the integration of renewable energy resources in a manner similar to other types of generation. The RTO and ISO processes have evolved from the universal rst come, rst serve method of analysis so that special consideration can be given to renewable resources. For all analyses, each RTO, ISO, or utility, as well as WECC, rst coordinates base case models using information contributed by every planning entity, including power interchanges with neighboring systems. Interconnection studies that assess the transmission system requirements for the proposed resources are then performed. Renewable energy zones are identied in some areas in an attempt to identify likely zones
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of wind development and coordinate with future transmission development. Cost allocation provides a means of providing revenue to the transmission suppliers through the transmission tariff. Much of the nancial burden of transmission expansion for renewable projects is removed from the generators if transmission is constructed under a cost allocation plan, with the cost assigned to the loads served by the transmission system. Some states have renewable targets that take into account state economic development and job creation when selecting renewable resources. David Loomis of Illinois State University estimates that 1 MW of onshore wind generation is worth US$656,000 in the rst year of operation and about US$37,000 per year thereafter in terms of economic development and job creation. If economic development and job creation are considered in the choice of renewable resources, other generation options from outside the area may not be able to compete. Government leaders must weigh the longterm costs of global warming concerns, the price of energy, and other issues in order to make the social choice to install wind energy. Including economic development and job creation in the list of the reasons to choose the location for the renewable generation may also be considered a social choice. Planning is performed pursuant to open and transparent regional planning processes that comply with applicable
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Renewable and Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards

Renewable Portfolio Standard Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard Renewable or Alternative Energy Goal

figure 2. Map of U.S. states with renewable energy targets. An RPS may include sources other than wind. For additional state-by-state information, see www.pewclimate.org/print/what_s_being_done/in_the_states/rps.cfm.

local, regional, and national planning requirements. RTOs plan transmission expansion based on reliability, market efciency, and operational performance criteria. The planning processes comply with all applicable North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) criteria, including the FERC Order No. 890 interregional planning requirements. Most RPSs and goals are specied as a percentage of the energy consumed by the load (customers) in a year. But load, generation, and power transfer capability are all expressed in MW. Therefore, wind generation also has to be expressed in MW to enable planning of the transmission system. This has been done in Figure 3. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has already exceeded its targets for 2020 and has transmission plans to deliver the energy. The other areas have generation queues and potential renewable energy development that may provide future generation to supply the targets; they also have conceptual transmission designs for delivering the additional energy. Recognizing the increasing scope and complexity of the transmission-planning process, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), provided grants for the
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Renwable Capacity by Type Today Plus Expected Renewable Capacity in the Future 60,000 50,000 2020 2025 RPS Future Geothermal Hydro Biofuel Solar Other Wind 10,000 MW Solar RPS + Other Projected Year 2025 20,000 2020 2020 2020 2020

40,000 MW 30,000

10,000

EC

SP

PJ

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O -N IS

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figure 3. Existing renewable energy resources and expected renewable capacity in the future for the U.S. ISO, RTO, and WECC footprints (in MW).
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Eastern Interconnection, WECC, and ERCOT to develop long-term generation and transmission expansion models and study various future scenarios through an open process involving stakeholders. A primary purpose of these studies is to provide policy makers with economic and transmission expansion information for the future scenarios on an interconnection-wide basis. The DOE grants also provided money for the state regulatory bodies in each interconnection to interface with the studies. We discuss a number of the individual ISO and RTO processes and plans for the future integration of wind below. The discussion is followed by a description of the interconnection-wide planning efforts supported by the DOE.

achieved. Low energy prices in MISO make it nancially impossible to supply renewable energy without a PPA.

MISO Regional Generation Outlet Study and Multivalue Projects Description

MISO performed a study to identify a conceptual transmission plan for the year 2025 that would be capable of economically delivering the wind generation associated with the RPS to the loads in the MISO area. The name of this study was the Regional Generation Outlet Study (RGOS). Transmission to deliver the wind energy associated with a state RPS is a MISO planning requirement, just as system reliability is a transmission requirement. MISOs renewable energy zones (REZs) are shown as ovals on the map in Figure 4, along with a conceptual transmission expansion plan. The renewable energy zones were selected through a process involving the MISO states (in the person of state regulator representatives) and the Midwest Governors Association. Being able to locate substations in the REZ and collect wind generation makes the transmission design process more efcient and reduces the delivery cost of energy compared with collecting renewable energy from random locations specied by a queue. The generation interconnection queue will adapt to the REZ locations, as their interconnection costs will be less than those for locations outside the REZs. The REZ areas have been studied, and the probability of being able to deliver energy from the substations in the REZs is higher than from random locations. All of the transmission envisioned by the RGOS does not need to be built simultaneously. Transmission lines need to be constructed in a logical sequence over time to coordinate with the growth of the wind generation resources. MISOs multivalue projects (MVPs) are steps in the implementation of the RGOS transmission lines. Studies of portfolios of candidate MVP lines require economic simulations of a one-year period with and without the transmission portfolio to determine whether the portfolio is economically viable or needed to meet the RPS requirement. Usually, single transmission lines fail economic and delivery tests if they are tested alone.

MISO Transmission-Planning Process and Renewable Generation

MISO Queue Management
The generation interconnection process set up by MISO the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operatorqualies potential generators to connect to the transmission system, identies the cost of interconnection, and identies the transmission that will deliver the energy produced by the generator to the MISO markets. The transmission identied in the generation interconnection process enters the MISO transmission expansion plan (MTEP) process. The MTEP process recommends the transmission to be constructed to MISOs board of directors. The approved transmission plan is contained in Appendix A of the MTEP report. A queue process is used to determine the order of the studies in which the generators are included. MISO has reformed its queue procedures, which have evolved to produce a more efcient and timely result. MISOs solution grants priority to generators located in areas with sufcient available transmission capability that are ready to proceed to commercial operation. The net result is a viable supply of wind generation to supply the RPS requirements in the MISO footprint. Studies including 5,000 MW or more per group are being executed to identify the transmission expansion required to interconnect large groups of generators. The costs of the required transmission improvements are shared among the generators in a group. Even at the 5,000MW level, some transmission expansions are judged by the generators to be too expensive. The net result is that studies are being completed, but generators are not moving forward with transmission until a preferred provider agreement (PPA) that provides an adequate revenue source with which to make a business case for the generation project is obtained. More renements to the interconnection procedures are anticipated. The size of the queue has little relation to the supply of renewable energy. The PPA bidding process is the key factor in determining renewable generation installed. The current MISO renewable targets have been exceeded. Transmission will have to be built before the remaining targets can be
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MVP Criteria
MISOs criteria for MVPs can be summarized as follows: MVPs are regional projects that provide widespread benets commensurate with cost by enabling access to lower-cost generation (including but not limited to wind), reducing congestion costs and generation needs by increasing transfer capacity, and increasing system reliability. MVP construction is possible due to the cost allocation process that provides revenue to the constructor of the MVP transmission lines under the MISO tariff. As MVP lines are approved, the lines are included in the models for the MTEP process. The generation
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Regional Generation Outlet Zone Region Exisiting Transmission Lines Line Overlay Lines by # of Circuits 2 to 2 (19) 1 to 1 (103) Transmission by Voltage (36) 765 to 800 (574) 500 to 765 345 to 500 (1,381) 230 to 345 (4,281) (6) All Others

figure 4. Conceptual transmission overlay to integrate MISOs REZs.

interconnection queue processes can use the MVP lines in the models used to determine the transmission expansions. If the REZ generation size limits are not exceeded, a good share of transmission expansions associated with queue projects would not be assigned to the renewable generation project.

Long-Range Planning with the Neighbors

The group that was awarded the DOE grant for transmission planning in the Eastern Interconnection is the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC). MISO considers the EIPC activity to be a mechanism for obtaining information about coordinating the transmission planning of all the joint operating agreements, which also require long-range studies, with neighboring RTOs and utilities. MISO and PJM have a cross-border agreement that also has long-range studies associated with it.

SPPs Transmission-Planning Process and Renewable Generation

Since becoming an RTO in 2004, Southwest Power Pool (SPP) has done regional planning that has resulted in US$5
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billion of approved transmission expansion projects that should be in place (to a large extent) prior to the implementation of its new integrated marketplace in 2014. Figure 5 shows SPPs existing extra-high-voltage (EHV) transmission system. It includes several major EHV improvements that have been placed in service over the last few years to improve system performance. In 2009, SPPs board of directors approved a new integrated transmission-planning (ITP) process that will determine what transmission is needed to maintain electric reliability and provide near- and long-term economic benefits to the SPP region, which includes all or parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Successful implementation of the ITP will result in a list of transmission expansion projects and completion dates that facilitate the creation of a reliable, robust, flexible, and cost-effective transmission network that improves access to the regions diverse resources, including its vast potential for renewable energy. Significant wind energy development is taking place in parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas.
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230 kV + Transmission in Service (August 2011)

Operating Voltage 230 kV 345 kV 500 kV 0 30 60 120 180 mi Southwest Power Pool Entergy ICT

Copyright 2011 by Southwest Power Pool, Inc. All rights reserved.

figure 5. All 230-kV and higher transmission lines in service in SPP, as of May 2011. (Used with permission.)

The ITP is an iterative three-year process that includes 20-year, ten-year, and near-term assessments. The 20-year assessment evaluates how much high-voltage transmission (at 345 kV and above) will be needed in 20 years to meet load growth and other future scenarios and potential developments. The rst iteration of the 20-year assessment, conducted in 2010, included an examination of high-voltage transmission needs while taking into account state renewable energy targets. The transmission needs were studied both with and without a potential 20% federal renewable energy standard (RES) and a potential carbon tax, all applied only in the SPP region. The renewable energy generation in a 20-year future without a federal RES was 10.6 GW, and the renewable energy generation in a future with a federal RES was 16.5 GW. Financial analyses in the 20-year assessment (known as ITP20) cover a 40-year period to reect the long life of these assets that are enabling markets and the future. Major EHV projects already approved in the SPP region are shown in Figure 6. Future iterations of the 20-year assessment will likely involve coordination of key assumptions and inputs with seams neighbors in at least one shared future scenario leading to possible interregional transmission expansion opportunities.
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The ten-year assessment is a value-based planning approach that analyzes the transmission system for a tenyear horizon. Economic and reliability analyses are utilized to identify 100-kV and higher solutions for issues identied on the 69-kV and above system, as well as issues identied by the 20-year assessment appropriate for the ten-year assessment. The rst iteration of the tenyear assessment is being conducted in 2011. This study, like the 20-year assessment, examines transmission needs while taking into account state renewable energy targets and a potential 20% federal RES, without considering the impacts associated with potential exports that could be expected as a result of a national mandate. The renewable energy generation in a ten-year future without a federal RES is 10.0 GW, and the renewable energy generation in a ten-year future with a federal RES is 14.0 GW. The study is also examining the effects of proposed EPA coal regulations on transmission needs. The near-term assessment of the ITP evaluates transmission system reliability in the near-term planning horizon. The assessment will identify potential problems using NERC reliability standards, SPP criteria, and local planning criteria. Mitigation plans are developed to meet regional reliability
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230 kV + Projects with Notification to Construct or Under Construction (August 2011)

All SPP Transmission Expansion Plans Are Subject to Change

mi Copyright 2011 by Southwest Power Pool, Inc. All rights reserved.

0 30

60

120

180

Upgrade Type Convert Line New Single Circuit New Double Circuit Upgrade Voltage 230 kV 345 kV

figure 6. All 230-kV and higher transmission projects with notifications to construct in the SPP region. (Used with permission.)

needs and identify necessary reliability upgrades for all voltage levels for approval and construction. The rst iteration of the near-term assessment is being conducted in 2011. The ITP process, through its 20-year, ten-year, and nearterm assessments, seeks a reasonable balance between longterm transmission investment and congestion costs to customers. Accommodating the vast wind energy growth that is taking place in the SPP footprint plays a huge role in the ITP planning process.

PJM Transmission-Planning Process and Renewable Generation

PJM has made signicant advances that accommodate the unique characteristics of wind and other renewable technologies to prepare for successful system operations and market administration. PJM has developed enhanced and more accurate wind forecast systems in the day-ahead and real-time markets that enable the variable output of wind plants to be integrated successfully into system operations. In addition, operations have adjusted to incorporate negative bids, economic minimums, and better communications between variable resources and system operators. This enhances the dispatchability of variable resources.
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PJMs regional transmission expansion plan (RTEP) is coordinated with PJMs interregional neighbors according to agreements between and among the interconnected neighbors. Coordinated system plans (CSPs), the Northeast Coordinated System Plan, and joint coordinated system plans (JCSPs) have been formulated according to these agreements and ensure that the RTEP is interregionally consistent and coordinated. In addition, there are numerous ad hoc interregional studies that address more targeted seams issues. All of PJMs regional and interregional planning activities involve robust participation among stakeholders. To address the challenges of future uncertainties and risks, PJM has set in motion a stakeholder process to evaluate and propose enhanced planning procedures. PJM will soon establish light-load reliability criteria to address operational performance issues experienced at light load and other system conditions that are adversely affected by variable resource and loop ows. A PJM task force is also considering further planning process enhancements that will incorporate planning more comprehensively for these uncertainties. In parallel with these planning process activities, PJM has initiated studies of future levels of renewable generation
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ity and would provide 46% of the potential energy production by queue resources. Estimated Assumed The New England Wind Annual Electricity % Energy Capacity Nameplate Integration Study (NEWIS) Type (#) of Projects Capacity (MW) Factor (%) Production (GWh) Production examined large-scale wind Hydro (8) 35 25 77 1 power integration scenarios Landfill gas (1) 34 90 268 for the New England region Biomass (13) 450 90 3,548 25 to identify and address operWind onshore (36) 2,359 32 6,613 46 ating issues for various levels Wind offshore (3) 1,027 41 3,689 26 of wind expansion. The study Fuel cells (1) 9 95 75 examined both inland and offTotal (62) 3,914 42 14,270 100 shore wind, as well as additional resources from eastern and required PJM transmission expansions to interconnect Canada and New York as imports into New England. The with the resources that would be needed to satisfy all PJM study used conceptual transmission congurations to interRPSs. These studies will provide a future conceptual view connect the wind resources for these scenarios and also of PJM transmission expansion to accommodate possible estimated locational marginal prices, production costs, and outcomes driven by an uncertain future. To complement the environmental emissions for the cases examined. Conceprenewable transmission study effort, PJM has launched a tual transmission for integrating queue resources is shown PJM renewable integration study to assess the operational, in Figure 7. planning, and market effects of large-scale integration of The New England States Committee on Electricity wind and solar power, evaluate mitigation and facilitation (NESCOE) coordinates state involvement in electric sysmeasures available to PJM, and develop recommendations tem planning issues for the region. On 15 September 2009, for the implementation of such mitigation and facilitation the New England governors and eastern Canadian premiers measures. signed Resolution 33-2: Resolution Concerning Renewable Energy (see www.negc.org/main/?do=page&id=1). In this ISO New Englands System-Planning resolution, the states and provinces agreed to work together Process for Renewable Generation to enhance opportunities for developing cost-effective Retail electricity suppliers in New England can satisfy renewable resources and consider potential terms and conditheir RPS obligations by obtaining generation from a vari- tions for procuring regional power and developing a sample ety of renewable technologies located within New Eng- regional request for proposals for the power that could serve land, including behind the meter projects, and from as a model for future solicitations. adjacent balancing authority areas. If the retail suppliers To advance this resolution, last year NESCOE issued obtain insufcient renewable energy credits (RECs), they a request for information (RFI). The objective of the RFI can make alternative compliance payments (ACPs), which was to gather information that can be used in developing a also serve as a cap on the price of the renewable resources. future request for proposals ( RFP) for coordinated renewThe New England states RPSs include technology classes able energy procurement among the states. NESCOE notes for new and existing resources, and load-serving entities that the RFI con rms that the region can develop or import (LSEs) must use a specied percentage of electric energy sufcient renewable energy to meet the regions renewable generated by each class each year. The class for new renew- energy goals, and it identies transmission projects in varable resources (class I) typically includes wind, but also ious stages of development that, subject to further analysis, includes other types such as solar, hydro, landll gas, ocean could facilitate the delivery of renewable energy to New thermal, and some biomass. Class I renewable resources England loads. The RFI showed the potential for more than have a required percentage that increases each year, which 15,000 GWh of renewable energy production. ISO New England has conducted several scenario analyvaries by state and accounts for most of the growth of RPS ses of wind development for the region. Noteworthy among in New England. New England has the potential for developing over these is the New England 2030 Power System Study, which 215 GW of wind generation within the region, assum- showed the effects of integrating up to 12,000 MW of wind ing environmentally sensitive sites have been eliminated. resources in New England. The study showed that signiTable 1 shows proposed New England renewable resources cant transmission is required to connect potential largein the ISOs generation interconnection queue, including scale wind resources to load centers in New England. NESnon-FERC projects, as of 1 April 2011. These resources COE then issued the New England Governors Renewable would exceed all RPS targets for new renewables in 2020. Energy Blueprint, which recommended procurement pracOf these projects, wind resources make up 86% of the capac- tices, processes, and coordination opportunities, including
table 1. Estimated energy from New England renewable energy projects in the ISO queue as of 1 April 2011.
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approaches for possible regulatory approvals. Through a strategic planning initiative, ISO New England is studying the economic and reliability effects of retiring aging, environmentally challenged generating units and their likely replacement with natural gas red generation, variable renewable resources, and imports from the neighboring Canadian regions. The studies will include production cost simulations, analyses of the natural gas system requirements, and transmission-planning studies for some of these scenarios. Plans call for continuing discussions of these issues with the regions stakeholders and for providing an update on these studies in the Regional System Plan 2012 (RSP12). The next steps for the region could include consideration and possible development of tariff mechanisms that could support the transmission development required for coordinated, competitive procurement of renewable resources.

NYISOs TransmissionPlanning Process

New Yorks renewable portfolio standard (RPS) is one of the more aggressive in the country, with a figure 7. Conceptual transmission configuration for full ISO New England queue renewable energy target of 30% development. by 2015. Of this 30%, approximately 20.7% will be derived from existing renewable energy facilities and 1% through The New York transmission owners and NYISO are colvoluntary green power sales, leaving a remainder of about laborating on a New York State transmission assessment and 8% to be derived from new, eligible resources centrally pro- reliability study (STARS) to develop a long-term (20-year) cured by the New York State Energy Research and Develop- plan for coordinated infrastructure investment, including ment Authority (NYSERDA). The amount of new renew- transmission for renewables, smart grid initiatives, aging able resources to be procured translates to roughly 10.4 infrastructure replacement, and other aspects. STARS is million MWh by 2015, and NYSERDAs ve solicitations evaluating New Yorks existing transmission assets and to date have procured approximately 42% of this target. A identifying potential economically benecial transmission sixth solicitation has just concluded, and results should be projects that would reliably support New York States energy available shortly. As in most other regions, the majority of needs well into the 21st century. This effort includes life these renewable resources are located in remote areas of extension and modernization of existing facilities as well as upstate and western New York, far from the downstate load potential expansion of transmission capabilities in existing centers. New York currently has more than 1,300 MW of transmission corridors to address constraints and congestion. installed wind, with another 4,600 MW of onshore wind at STARS is a complement to the NYISO planning processes. various stages of development and almost 2,000 MW of offNew York has an aging power transmission infrastrucshore wind in its interconnection queue. ture. Significant portions of New Yorks high-voltage
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20-year horizon through 2030. These transmission projects would increase transfer capabilities from upstate New York Nuclear to the lower Hudson Valley 8% by more than 1,500 MW. This path would provide additional transfer capability over which Geothermal 4% renewable energy and other Small Hydro RPS 1% generation resources located in Solar 3% Renewables SteamCoal upstate New York would be able 17% 29% to reach the major load centers Wind 8% in southeastern New York. As New York State evaluates the challenges relating to Conventional Hydro aging infrastructure of the power 25% system, it is also facing signicant environmental initiatives figure 8. Expected 2020 Western Interconnection generation by fuel type. that may affect power resources, along with elevated concern about transmission lines were built several decades ago. nuclear safety issues. The ongoing transmission studies will STARS will provide potential investment costs and offer vital contributions to protecting electric system reliquantify benefits that may be realized from the identi- ability as well as allowing for the large-scale integration of fied transmission projects for various scenarios over a renewables.
2020 Western Interconnection Expected Generation by Type (% Annual Energy) Combined Cycle 16% Combustion Turbine Cogeneration Other Biomass RPS 1%

Project Names 1. Sunrise 2. BlytheDevers 3. Tehachapi Upgrade 4. SWIP South 5. TCP Harry AllenNorthwest 6. TCP NorthwestAmargosa 7. PVNG #2 8. Pinal CentralTortolita 9. Southeast Valley (SEV) 10. PVMorgan 11. PawneeSmoky Hill 12. WatertonMidway 13. San Luis Valley 14. Gateway South Phase 1 15. Gateway Central Phase 1 16. Gateway West Phase 1 17. HemingwayBoardman 18. Cascade Crossing 19. I-5 Corridor 20. West McNary 21. Big EddyKnight 22. Little Goose Area Reinforcement 23. NicolaMeridian 24. BCUS Intertie 25. 1202L Conversion 26. Heartland 27. West HVDC 28. East HVDC 29. Fort McMurrayEast Line 30. Fort McMurrayWest Line

25

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Foundational Projects-2020 The diagram shows illustrative routings for 30 SCG Foundational Projects 345 kV and higher. There are 28 14 lower voltage/reinforcement projects excluded from the map for clarity.

23 24 19 21 20 18 22 Transmission Key 500 kV Single Circuit Line 345 kV Single Circuit Line 17 16 15 14 500 kV Double Circuit Line 345 kV Double Circuit Line DC Circuit (Various Voltages) 11 12 13 Sub-Region Key CAISO NTTG SSPG SWAT CCPG CG BCH AESO

4 6 5 3 2 1 7 10 8 9

Note: Projects not listed in any particular order

figure 9. Expected transmission additions. (Used with permission.)

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WECC Transmission Planning Process

WECCs RTEP process, led by WECCs Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC), is a Western Interconnectionwide, stakeholder-driven transmission-planning process. The RTEP makes use of a bottom-up process, with information owing to TEPPC from stakeholders throughout the Western Interconnection. In 2011, WECCs RTEP process produced a ten-year regional transmission plan. The plan provides information on expected future load, generation, and transmission in the Western Interconnection, what transmission capacity may be needed under a variety of future scenarios, and other insights. The major focus of the plan was to understand regional transmission needs and other impacts of enacted RPSs and related policies in the Western Interconnection, which are estimated to make up 17% of total energy in 2020 (see Figure 8). Wind energy is expected to contribute 47% of the energy required to meet the RPSs and is expected to grow from an installed capacity of 10 GW today to around 18 GW in 2020. With the majority of the load in coastal states and many of the best wind resources in the interior, transmission is paramount. Based on stakeholder input on the development status of known transmission projects, WECC assumed that more than 5,500 miles of new transmission (230-kV lines and above see Figure 9) will be constructed in the Western Interconnection by 2020. Many of the lines access areas of high renewable generation potential. In addition to the assumed transmission additions, the plan identied two areas in need of additional capacity under most of the studies conducted: northwestern Montana (labeled MT-NW in the gure) and northwestern California (labeled COI and PDCI ). In addition to providing a Western Interconnectionwide view of what the system may look like in 2020, the plan analyzed the transmission utilization, generation dispatch, and capital cost implications of various locations and mixes of

renewable resources that could be used to meet RPSs in the Western Interconnection. One of the objectives of the plan was to investigate the impacts of remote versus local renewable resource selection to achieve RPS mandates. As a proxy, the following question was asked: What is the impact on transmission utilization and generation and transmission cost when 12,000 GWh of renewable energy located in California, whose 33% RPS comprises 66% of the incremental RPS energy need in the West, is removed and relocated to other areas in the Western Interconnection? A key observation was that, in some cases, long-distance transmission to access remote renewable resources appears cost-effective when compared with some local renewable generation assumed in the plan.

Wind Integration Challenges

The studies used to inform the plan also demonstrated that increasing levels of wind and other variable generation are causing signicant shifts in the dispatch patterns of existing generators. Of particular concern is the frequent ramping of traditional base-load thermal units (gas- and coal-red). It was also observed that during light-load periods, there was excess energy and dispatchable units were unable to ramp down and still remain available for higher-load hours later. This lack of system exibility and the need for unit commitment are major issues for system operators in the West. An example of an excess energy condition is shown in the ten-day generation plot in Figure 10. In addition to the 3,900 MW of incremental wind capacity, minimum capacity and minimum runtime requirements, pool reserve requirements, transmission limits, and the market footprint all contributed to the overgeneration condition shown.

ERCOT
In Senate Bill 20 (2005), the Texas Legislature revised the RPS for Texas, establishing a goal of 5,880 MW of

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Combustion Turbine SteamOther Combined Cycle Solar Small Hydro RPS Geothermal Biomass RPS SteamCoal Hydro + PS Nuclear Wind Demand

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figure 10. Ten-day generation plot for the Montana Area with 3,900 MW of incremental wind capacity.
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figure 11. ERCOTs CREZs and proposed transmission improvements.

transmission plan. Construction of many of these circuits is under way, and all circuits are expected to be operational by the end of 2013. The CREZ transmission plan included series-compensated transmission lines to increase the power transfer capacity of the lines. System modications were made to relieve subsynchronous power system oscillation concerns and potential voltage control issues. Wind generation installed at a distance from load in weak transmission areas needs to be reviewed for susceptibility to such interactions. Development of the CREZ plan will achieve the goal of providing adequate transmission capacity for renewable generation resources in western Texas. Development of renewable resources in other parts of the state, such as coastal and southern Texas, will require separate studies to better understand the aggregate longrange transmission needs of the ERCOT region.

renewable generation capacity to be installed by 1 January 2015. The long-term target for renewable generation was set at 10,000 MW by 2025. Yet there are currently more than 10,130 MW of wind generation facilities operating in Texas, with more than 9,400 MW of wind generation in the ERCOT portion of the state alone. In ERCOT, there are an additional 1,620 MW of wind generation and 30 MW of transmission-level solar generation with executed transmission contracts; these projects are expected to be operational prior to the end of 2013. The Texas Legislature also used Senate Bill 20 to instruct the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) to designate competitive renewable energy zones (CREZs) in Texas and to order specic transmission improvements necessary to connect these CREZs to load centers in Texas. The resulting transmission plan ordered by PUCT was designed to accommodate an incremental 11,553 MW of wind generation capacity in western Texas and included approximately 2,300 miles of new 345-kV rightof-way. The CREZ transmission plan is depicted in Figure 11. PUCT selected several transmission service providers to route and construct the new circuits. Three of these companies, Wind Energy Transmission Texas, LLC (WETT), Lone Star Transmission, and Cross Texas Transmission, had not previously owned or operated transmission in Texas. As of the end of May 2011, regulatory approvals had been issued for all but one of the new 345-kV circuits included in the CREZ
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DOEs ARRA Projects

DOE has funded long-range planning studies in the Eastern Interconnection, WECC, and ERCOT regions with ARRA funding. These studies are scenario analyses that are being conducted through open stakeholder processes, as described below.

Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative

A group of electric system planning authorities formed the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) to enhance existing planning processes, assemble and communicate existing transmission plans across the Eastern Interconnection, and pioneer a grass-roots effort to perform interconnection-wide transmission analysis under the DOE ARRA funding. The EIPC is currently engaged in an interconnection transmission study effort funded by the DOE and scheduled to conclude at the end of 2012. The project represents a first-of-its-kind effort to involve planning authorities in the Eastern Interconnection in modeling the impact on the transmission grid of various policy options determined to be of interest by state, provincial, and federal policy makers and other stakeholders. The basic approach for the project builds on existing models of the bulk power system and refines them as necessary to support interregional analysis of the combined regional plans for the entire Eastern Interconnection. This approach will ensure that the existing
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regional plans have fully taken into consideration both opportunities and impacts from grid enhancements in regions throughout the interconnection. Furthermore, the project builds on, rather than substituting for, the current local and regional transmission planning processes developed by the planning authorities and associated regional stakeholder groups within the entire Eastern Interconnection. Those processes and the resulting potential transmission expansion plans are developed in accordance with the requirements of federal, state, and provincial jurisdictions and meet NERC reliability criteria. Although coordination has long existed in the Eastern Interconnection, the potential integration of large amounts of renewable resources offers greater opportunities and significant challenges. The project utilizes an open and transparent multiconstituency stakeholder process representing the entire Eastern Interconnection. This diverse stakeholder body has identified specific resource futures to be studied from an economic standpoint. Later in the process, they will determine three scenarios that will be analyzed in detail to develop potential transmission options that fully support the resources and customer demands in those scenarios. This coordinated, interregional approach to interconnection-wide transmission analyses will enable evaluation of a wide range of renewable resource options, some of which are found in remote areas not currently accessed by robust, high-voltage transmission infrastruc-

Normalized 10 min Variability for Five Regional Groups 0.07 Normalized Sigma 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Production Level on Nameplate 1

500 MW 40,000 MW

5,000 MW 15,000 MW 85,000 MW

figure 12. Wind variation reduction with aggregation (source: DOE).

ture. Further, the three scenarios are likely to consider development for 20 years into the futurewell beyond most existing regional planning horizons.

WECCs ARRA-Funded Studies

WECCs RTEP, described above, is funded in part by a grant from DOE under ARRA. The DOE funds have enabled WECC to greatly expand the breadth and depth of transmission-planning analysis and stakeholder involvement.

Wind Correlation Versus Distance 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 Wind Correlation 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Distance Between Sites (mi) 550 600 650 700 750 800 Poly. (NorthSouth) Poly. (EastWest) 440 mi 540 mi 410 mi 840 mi 650 mi 640 mi

figure 13. Correlation of wind output versus distance in the MISO footprint (source: MISO).
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Today, significant amounts of wind generation are installed and operating on U.S. transmission systems.

ERCOTs ARRA-Funded Studies

ERCOT is also participating in the interconnection-wide transmission-planning studies being funded through ARRA (and administered through DOE). ERCOT is required by state law to conduct interconnection-wide long-range planning studies and is utilizing the funding provided by DOE to supplement its existing resources. The specic goals of the DOE funding are to enhance stakeholder participation in the long-range planning process, extend the horizon of longrange planning in ERCOT from ten to 20 years, develop tools for evaluating a broader range of future scenarios, and include operational reliability in the long-range planning process.

One Possible Future Justification of Transmission: Geographic Diversity

Reduction in wind variability reduces the generation that must be dedicated to manage wind. Some of the cost deferred by reducing the generation to manage wind can be used to justify transmission. Figure 12 illustrates the potential to reduce the variation of wind by a factor of three by connecting large geographic areas. Further study needs to be performed to determine if transmission development opportunities in fact exist. Some of the existing RTOs and ISOs do have the footprint to capture such diversity benets. Figure 13 is a plot of the correlation of wind energy output versus distance for the potential wind generation in the MISO footprint. MISO has a footprint of more than 500 mi, extending both east and west and north and south, in areas with signicant wind resources. MISO is capturing benets from wind diversity in addition to its base of installed wind generation installations. Capacity credit is the amount of wind generation that can be expected on peak to serve the load. In 2009, the MISO capacity credit for wind generation was 8% of the generator rating. In 2011, the MISO capacity credit for wind generation is 12.9%. The increase was due to more wind generation being installed in Illinois, Michigan, and Indiana some distance from the dominant 2009 locations in southwestern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Transmission to reduce the need for generation regulation and load following would use less natural gas, produce less carbon dioxide, and use generation more efciently than building generation and consuming fuel for regulation and load following.

planned, and constructed, and EIPC, ERCOT, and WECC programs to integrate wind on a large scale into the future have been encouraged by grants from DOE. While transmission expansion options for the integration of wind generation are being developed and will be periodically updated to reect changing conditions in the future, transmission cost allocation will remain a key driver for planning transmission expansion. The use of economic development factors by states in selecting wind generation projects and the lower price of natural gas have reduced the interest in the large transmission overlays identied in previous studies. The benets associated with geographic diversity through the aggregation of the variability of multiple wind plants over a large area may be sufcient, however, to justify HVdc transmission or largescale single balancing area ac transmission systems. Studies must be performed to determine if there is benecial transmission that could be justied among RTOs and neighboring regions, as well as across other large areas such as WECC.

For Further Reading

MISO Transmission Expansion Plan 2010. (2010). [Online]. Available: http://www.misoenergy.org/planning PJM Regional Transmission Expansion Plan 2010. (2010). [Online]. Available: http://www.pjm.com/planning/ rtep-development.aspx WECC Regional Transmission Expansion Plan 2010. (2010). [Online]. Available: http://www.wecc.biz/Planning/ TransmissionExpansion/RTEP/Pages/default.aspx SPP. [Online]. Available: http://www.spp.org/section. asp?pageID=128 ERCOT. [Online]. Available: http://www.ercot.org/ NYISO. [Online]. Available: http://www.nyiso.com/ public/energy_future/index.jsp ISO-NE. Regional system plan 2010. (2010). [Online]. Available: http://www.iso-ne.com/trans/rsp/2010/index.html

Biographies
Dale Osborn is with the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, Inc, Carmel, Indiana. Michael I. Henderson is with ISO New England, Holyoke, Massachusetts. Bradley M. Nickell is with the Western Electric Coordinating Council, Salt Lake City, Utah. Warren Lasher is with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. Charles Liebold is with PJM, Norristown, Pennsylvania. John Adams is with NYISO, Rensselaer, New York. Jay Caspary is with SPP, Little Rock, Arkansas. p&e
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Conclusions
Today, signicant amounts of wind generation are installed and operating on U.S. transmission systems. Additional wind generation and the transmission to deliver it are being analyzed,
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