Coming soon: A Harper trip to Myanmar?

Experts say the PM could cut the ribbon on a new embassy.

DFATD Photo Foreign Minister John Baird and Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in Myanmar last year.

Kristen Shane-Wednesday, 10/02/2013 The stage is set for Prime Minister Stephen Harper to visit Myanmar this fall, although the government isnt confirming his travel plans. Officials from both countries are in the early stages of planning the prime ministers visit for November, according to one source close to the southeast Asian country also known as Burma. Analysts who study Myanmar say they wouldnt be surprised if Mr. Harper goes there. The country is a little bit like a gold rush now, said one academic, with both neighbours and far-flung Western countries flocking in,

but Canada is being left behind. Mr. Harper might not want to be the last to make a historic visit to signal his support for Myanmars opening-up, said another. One so-called deliverable of a visit could be Mr. Harpers opening of Canadas new embassy in Myanmar, said analysts. If a visit happens in mid November, it would be at about the same time Mr. Harper would be expected at a Commonwealth heads of government meeting in Sri Lanka. The Harper government, however, has sent strong signals that it will send only a lower-level delegation to the Sri Lankan meeting, without Mr. Harper, to show its displeasure with what it sees as a lack of progress on human rights in the country after its decades-long civil war ended in 2009. Mr. Harper could make a statement by skipping out on visiting Sri Lanka, a country he sees as a human rights outlier, in order to travel to Myanmar, whose ongoing democratic reforms his government has welcomed with cautious optimism. But one analyst said he doubts Mr. Harper would make that contrast, since it would be open to criticism.

The lead-up Foreign Minister John Baird and Trade Minister Ed Fast have paved the way for their boss. Mr. Baird in March 2012 was the first Canadian foreign minister to make an official visit to Myanmar. He met with the countrys president and senior government leaders as well as the famed opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, general secretary of the National League for Democracy, whom Canada has made an honorary citizen. Mr. Fast visited the country last September along with executives from close to 20 companies interested in doing business in Myanmar. The countrys foreign minister then dropped in on Mr. Baird in Ottawa last October. And both countries exchanged parliamentary delegations earlier this year. If Mr. Harper steps off his plane in Myanmar, he would fall in line with other Western leaders, such as British Prime Minister David Cameron and United States President Barack Obama, who made historic visits to the country in 2012 in recognition of its ongoing democratic reforms. So many other prime ministers have gone, said Robert Anderson, a professor at Simon Fraser University. He said Mr. Harper might not want to be seen as the last. Burma now is a little bit like the gold rush and everybodys going, said

Paul Evans, a professor at the Institute of Asian Research and the Liu Institute for Global Issues at the University of British Columbia. A visit would symbolize Canadas new approach to the country, he said, after years of punishment and sanctions. But neighbouring countries in Southeast Asia and Western countries such as France, the UK and US jumped into Myanmar sooner than Canada, he said. Mr. Anderson and Burmese-Canadian democracy activist Tin Maung Htoo both said Mr. Harper could use a trip to Myanmar to open Canadas embassy there. Mr. Baird announced in July 2012 that Canada would open an embassy in Myanmar. Canadas first resident ambassador, Mark McDowell, presented his credentials in August 2013 and he and a trade commissioner were as of last month working out of the United Kingdoms chancery until the Canadian Embassy is ready. After 50 years, the countrys military rulers changed into their civvies for the countrys first elections in 20 years in 2010. The new government (civilian, but still dominated by the military) released some political prisoners, loosened media restrictions, and allowed freedom of assembly. Ms. Suu Kyi was released from house arrest, allowed to travel abroad and she took a seat in parliament through a 2012 byelection. Canada still calls the country Burma, the name preferred by democracy campaigners, while others like New Zealand and Australia have switched to Myanmar, the name the countrys government prefers. Despite this, Canada has warmed up to the country in other ways. In response to the democratic shift, the US, European Union and Canada eased many sanctions.

Canadian officials have been cautious in their embrace of the country. Mr. Fast last year urged Canadian businesses to approach doing business in Myanmar with eyes wide open given that the country is still undergoing regulatory and government policy changes. Optimism needs to be tempered by continued vigilance on human rights issues, stated a June report by a parliamentary subcommittee on international human rights. The committee said positive change hasnt reached all parts of the country or all its people. It pointed to what it described as ongoing discrimination against ethnic and religious minorities as well as weak civilian institutions. Skipping Sri Lanka for Myanmar?

David Poopalapillai, a national spokesperson for the Canadian Tamil Congress, said Myanmar and Sri Lanka have acted very differently. Myanmar, he said, is seeing a huge improvement, and its good behaviour should be rewarded. Sri Lanka, conversely, hasnt improved its human rights record since the end of the civil war between separatists within the Tamil minority and the government, he said. The Sri Lankan High Commission in Ottawa has said there is an ongoing rebuilding and reconciliation process in its multicultural society, that isnt served well by Hostile criticism and unfair targeting...by Canada. Mr. Harper two years ago vowed not to attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Sri Lanka next month if the countrys government hadnt substantially improved human rights. After a Commonwealth foreign ministers meeting in New York City last week, Mr. Baird said that given the current circumstances in Sri Lanka and the lack of substantial progress to date, it would be difficult for the government of Canada to fully participate in the November heads of government meeting. Mr. Poopalapillai said he believed the government would send a lower-level delegation, which he applauded. Canada may be alone among Commonwealth countries in this decision, he said, but it would show the Harper governments principled stance. Mr. Anderson said he didnt think Mr. Harper would go to Myanmar instead of Sri Lanka to make a point. He said it would be too open to criticism, as Myanmar itself does not have a perfect human rights record. Trip unconfirmed But Mr. Harpers travel plans, to Myanmar or Sri Lanka, are still up in the air. A source who asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak said both sides are working on a proposed visit for November. We do not confirm the prime ministers travel ahead of time, wrote Mr. Harpers spokesperson, Carl Valle, in an emailed response to a request for confirmation or denial of the Myanmar trip in mid November. He did not respond when asked whether it is incorrect that the two countries are in talks for Mr. Harper to visit Myanmar in mid November. Ian Trites, a spokesperson for Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada, said if and when the government has something to announce, it will do so.

The Myanmar embassys visa section simply said in a Sept. 23 statement, We have nothing to say so far, in a request for confirmation of whether the two sides are in talks toward a November trip. Representatives of several Canadian non-governmental groups that do work related to Myanmar said they had not heard of the prime minister planning to go. kshane@embassynews.ca