You are on page 1of 30

MlLLENNlUM

DEVELOPMEN1
GOAL5 B
A
R
O
M
E
1
E
R
5ERBlA 20!3
MlLLENNlUM DEVELOPMEN1 GOAL5 BAROME1ER 5ERBlA 20!3
In 2000, as a part of a global process, the Republic of Serbia has adopted the Millennium Develop-
ment Goals and incorporated it in National Strategy for Poverty Reduction. Very soon MDGs set
benchmarks in major areas of human development in Serbia. In 2006 the National progress report on
MDGs was prepared and in 2009 a mid-term report was made. Up to that point progress has been
recorded in most of the indicators presented. However, after the mid-term report the whole process of
MDGs monitoring was neglected.

In 2012 Serbia was selected as one among, then, 56 countries in the World in which national consulta-
tions about UN post 2015 Sustainable Development Goals were held. This process is about to set new
development path at global level and inuence national policies in dierent sectors. The global post
2015 consultation process is grounded in the achievements and lessons learnt from Millennium Devel-
opment Goals as a global development policy framework. This process has brought a new approach to
the denition of development goals in which citizens were directly inuencing the process, parallel to
the governments who had to deliver their proposals of new development policy framework to UN Sec-
retary General. Nevertheless, one could suppose that many development goals for post 2015 period
will be closely tied to basic MDGs. Now the question arises: what is the state of development in Serbia
today, observed through MDG indicators? How much progress was made towards Millennium Devel-
opment Goals and how much this informs us about tentative new directions of development after
2015, as recognized by citizens of Serbia?
To answer these questions, it is important to reestablish the monitoring of MDGs and check what the
level of MDGs achievement in Serbia today is. In this document we want to make quick view on trends
of achievement and derive basic and general conclusions on development tendencies in Serbia. In order
to do this we present a review of selected indicators for the objectives of all 8 MDGs. For each of the
objectives dened under the 8 MDGs we have selected 2-3 major indicators that show trend of change
in the respective areas of social and economic life. For each of indicators we try to draw a trend line
connecting 3 points in time. Most usually these are years 2005, 2008 and 2012. The values of indica-
tors in the graphs for rst two time points have been transferred from midterm MDG report published
by UNDP Serbia in 2009 and they present the moments in which the Government of the Republic of
Serbia has made reports on progress towards MDGs. The latest time point should help us to establish
the trend of change and lead us to base line for new post 2015 development goals. Unfortunately,
there is no available new data from reliable sources for all indicators. For some we can present data for
year 2012, for some it will be some previous year, but for few the new data is simply missing. Neverthe-
less, in the plentitude of proposed indicators, there is enough information as to derive conclusions
about main development tendencies and about critical gaps in achievement of MDGs. The obtained
results should be interpreted in the light of global changes provoked by nancial and economic crisis
and their inuence on fragile Serbian economy and society, which was reected in ocial statistics just
after the interim report on MDGs achievement was published.
MDG1
&
HALVE
T HE
POVERTY RATE
ERADICATE
HUNGER
Objective 1: By 2015 reduce the unemployment rate by at least 50%
Objective 1 not achieved. An increase in overall unemployment, youth unemployment and long-term unem-
ployment has been registered. Generally higher unemployment than in 2005 is related to the jobless growth
of 2005-2008 driven mostly by the increase in consumption. The number of newly employed was extremely
low since the beginning of the crisi , and the ratio of long-term unemployed has got back to 2005 value.
16.4X
2009
24.6X
2012
21.8X
2005
1O1AL UNEMPLOMEN1 RA1E (!6-54 R5)
40.7X
2009
51.3X
2012
47.7X
2005
OU1H UNEMPLOMEN1 RA1E (!6-54 R5)
61.8X
2009
78X
2012
79X
2005
RA1lO OP LONG-1ERM UNEMPLOED lN 1HE 1O1AL NUMBER OP UNEMPLOED (!5-64)
Source for 2012: SORS, LSF 2012

Objective 2 not achieved. The goal of the National Strategy for Poverty Reduction to halve the poverty was
achieved in 2007, but worsened after Global economic crisis started, with increase in urban-rural disparity
ratio. The weight of worsening of economic situation fell much more on the back of inhabitants of rural areas
in 2010 there was almost 3 times more poor people in rural areas than in urban.
Objective 2: By 2015 halve the poverty rate of entire population and eradicate hunger
Source for 2010: Government of the Rep. of Serbia,
First National report on social inclusion and poverty reduction in Serbia, 2010
EN1lRE POPULA1lON POVER1 RA1E
14X
2002
6.6X
2007
9.2X
2010
URNAN AREA5 POVER1 RA1E
11.2X
2002
4.3X
2007
5.7X
2010
RURAL AREA5 POVER1 RA1E
17.7X
2002
9.8X
2007
13.6X
2010
MDG 1: HALVE THE POVERTY RATE AND ERADICATE HUNGER.
This goal has not been met yet. The unemployment rate is among the highest in Europe and poverty is
increasing. The results in this eld are heavily dependent on the level of economic growth. Consequently, in
couple of years during mid 2000s, when there were repeated moderate rates of economic growth, unem-
ployment and poverty were decreasing, but the Global economic crisis, which brought heavy recession to
Serbia, stopped this trend and it is not likely that the trend will be signicantly reversed until 2015. It should
be stressed, though, that 2013 is bringing rst signs of recovery of the economy: there is a modest increase
in growth rate, increase in industrial production and sharp decrease in foreign trade decit. It seems that an
important lesson was learnt during recession years: the future economic development policy should be based
on sustainable grounds and provide more jobs, since the limits of foreign indebtedness and foreign trade
decit have already been overcome.
MDG2
COMPLETE
A FULL COURSE OF
PRIMARY
SCHOOLING
THAT BY 2015
ALL BOYS
GIRLS
&
Objective 1: Increase of primary schooling coverage
Objective 1 not achieved: Visible achievement was made with regard to pre-school education. There was
overall increase in Serbia from 48.2% through 51.2% to 54.9%, (including children in obligatory pre-school
education). Among children age 3-5 living in Roma settlements, pre-school attendance rate increased from
3.9% in 2005 to 8.2% in 2010. Among children of same age from rural areas this increase was from 14.4%
to 28.7% (MICS3 and MICS4, UNICEF). On the other hand, enrollment in elementary school and com-
pletion of elementary school in Serbia in general is slowly decreasing. Behind this trend an important
achievement is hidden: thanks to measures introduced since Serbia joined the Decade of Roma Inclusion,
coverage of Roma children with basic education has grown signicantly. The rst grade enrollment rate went
over 90% in 2010 and share of those nishing elementary school increased from 28.1% in 2005 to 62.7%
in 2010. This means that negative trend on this 2 indicators is concentrated in non-Roma population. In
rural areas rst grade enrollment rate dropped from 95% in 2005 to 93.2% in 2010. Net primary school
completion rate in rural areas dropped from 89.9% in 2005 to 88.1% in 2010 (MICS3 and MICS4,
UNICEF).
51.2X
2008
54.9X
2011
48.2X
2005
PERCEN1AGE OP CHlLDREN COVERED B PRE5CHOOL
EDUCA1lON (BE1WEEN 3 AND 7 EAR5 OP AGE)
Source for 2011:
Dev Info, SORS, Statistics of Education
51.2X
2008
54.9X
2011
48.2X
2005
PERCEN1AGE OP CHlLDREN COVERED B PRE5CHOOL
EDUCA1lON (BE1WEEN 3 AND 7 EAR5 OP AGE)
Source for 2011:
Dev Info, SORS, Statistics of Education
Objective 2: Obtaining of profession, promotion of the concept of life-long learning,
availability of higher education

Objective 2 partially achieved. There is a trend of increase of transfer to tertiary education and growth in
coverage by secondary education. Here again, the improvement is signicant with Roma children whose net
attendance almost doubled in 5 years. There was also increase of net attendance of children from rural
areas, from 79.5% in 2005 to 85.3% in 2010 (MICS3 and MICS4, UNICEF). However, there is a problem
with completion of secondary school and dropout is even higher here than within primary education. After
decline in 2008 the percentage of children who nish regular high school did not reach 2005 level yet.

Source for 201O:SORS, Statistical yearbook 2011
Source for Roma: MICS 2005 and MICS 2010, UNICEF
PERCEN1AGE OP CHlLDREN 1HA1 PlNl5H ELEMEN1AR 5CHOOL5
95.3X
2005
94.8X
2008
94.2X
2010
28.1
2005
62,7X
2010
General population Roma population
Source for 2010: First National report on social inclusion and povrety reduction in Serbia,Gov. of RS2010
Source for Roma: MICS 2005 and MICS 2010, UNICEF
PERCEN1AGE OP CHlLDREN ENROLED lN ELEMEN1AR 5CHOOL5
97.5X
2005
95.7X
2008
95.1X
2010
66.2X
2005
90.9X
2010
General population Roma population
Objective 3: Improvement of education quality
Objective 3 achieved on suboptimal level. Scores in math and science TIMSS tests are increasing and put
Serbia among the countries above the scale midpoint (500). PISA scores are still below European average,
but the scores have trend of growth in all three areas, and the lagging behind EU countries is decreasing. It
is important to continue with eorts invested in achieving excellence and bring Serbian children to European
average.

Having in mind that number of children in Serbia is decreasing every year due to low fertility rate, and under
presumption that economic growth will turn positive soon, the decrease in completion of secondary school
might lead to insucient volume of qualied labor force in the coming period.
Source for 2010: SORS, Statistical yearbook 2011 Source for Roma: MICS 2005 and MICS 2010, UNICEF,
net secondary school attendance ratio
COVERAGE OP CHlLDREN B 5ECONDAR 5CHOOL
( GRADE5 l-lV OP HlGH 5CHOOL l !5-!8 R5 )
76.42X
2005
81.68X
2008
84.39X
2010
10.2X
2005
19.3X
2010
General population Roma population
82.76X
2008
85.01X
2011
85.68X
2005
PERCEN1AGE OP CHlLDREN 1HA1 PlNl5H REGULAR 5ECONDAR 5CHOOL
103X
2009
93.5X
2011
79.5X
2005
MDG 2 : THAT BY 2015 ALL BOYS AND GIRLS COMPLETE A FULL COURSE OF PRIMARY
SCHOOLING.
This goal has not been met. The major progress was made in increase of education quality, however Serbia is
still below EU average in all indicators, both TIMSS and PISA. On the other hand, there are warning signs
that less and less children is completing primary schools. Signicant improvements have been made in
coverage or Roma children by obligatory education, but situation is worsening in rural areas (supposedly
both for non-Roma and Roma children). Apparently, more notice should be paid to support to children to
complete at least primary education and to quality in primary and secondary education.

Source for 2009: Institute of Psychology
1REND5 lN lN1ERNA1lONAL MA1HEMA1lC5 AND 5ClENCE 51UD - MA1H (TIMSS)
PROGRAM POR lN1ERNA1lONAL
51UDEN1 A55E55MEN1 - MA1H (PISA)
PROGRAM POR lN1ERNA1lONAL
51UDEN1 A55E55MEN1 - 5ClENCE (PISA)
Source for 2011: Institute for Educational research
477
2003
486
2007
516
2011
437
2003
435
2006
442
2009
468
2003
470
2007
516
2011
436
2003
436
2006
443
2009
PROGRAM POR lN1ERNA1lONAL 51UDEN1 A55E55MEN1 - READlNG (PISA)
412
2003
401
2006
442
2009
Source for 2012: SORS, LSF 2012
MDG3
&
EMPOWERMENT
GENDER
EQUALITY
OF WOMEN
Objective 1: Halve the economic inequalities between men and women
(in poverty, employment, unemployment, participation in trade unions, advancement
at work, payment)
Objective 1 achieved. Gender disparity in employment was almost halved between 2005 and 2012, disparity
in unemployment was 7 times smaller in 2012 than in 2005, and salary gap decreased from 16% to 11%.
Unfortunately, this was primarily the consequence of comparatively more deteriorated labor market
position of men than women after the breakout of economic crisis.
COMAPRA1lVE EMPLOMEN1 RA1E5 OP MEN AND WOMEN OP WORKlNG AGE ( !5-64 )
2005
61.2X 40.08X
2009
58.7X 43.3X
2012
52.4X 38.1X
COMAPRA1lVE UNEMPLOMEN1 RA1E5 OP MEN AND WOMEN OP WORKlNG AGE ( !5-64 )
2005
27.4X 17.6X
2009
18.1X 15X
2012
25.6X 23.9X
Objective 2: By 2015 increase the participation of women at all levels of political
decision-making to at least 30%
Objective 2 partially achieved. There is tendency of rather modest growth in all 3 selected indicators, but it
is only the National Assembly of Serbia where there is more than 30% of women MPs. The situation is
critical with participation of women in power at local level: the trend is almost stagnant and there is less than
5% of women on the position of mayor.
16X
2005
11X
2012
Source for 2012: FREN, Gender Pay Gap in the WB countries
5ELAR GAP BE1WEEN MAN AND WOMAN
PERCEN1AGE OP WOMEN AMONG MP5
lN 1HE NA1lONAL A55EMBL OP 5ERBlA
11X
2004
22X
2008
32.7X
2012
PERCEN1AGE OP WOMEN AMONG MEMBER5
OP 1HE GOVERNMEN1 OP 1HE REPUBLlC OP 5ERBlA
Source for 2012: The Government of the Republic of Serbia
12X
2005
18X
2008
25X
2012
Source for 2012: The National Assembly of Serbia
Objective 4: By 2015 develop a system of protection for women victims of violence
and a system of prevention of violence against women
Objective 4 partially achieved. There is less criminal charges raised in cases of domestic violence, but more
of them ended with conviction. The trends in both indicators might point to increasing eciency of protec-
tion of women against domestic violence. Number of safe houses is increasing, but it is not known how many
of them have been funded from state budget. Here we might propose adding a new indicator on safety of
safe houses, i.e. measuring the number of violent incidents in safe houses during a year.
Source for 2011: SORS, Statistical yearbook, 2012
Information for 2011 not availabe
PERCEN1AGE OP WOMEN AMONG
MUNlClPALl1 PRE5lDEN15 lN 5ERBlA
Source for 2012: Gender Equality Directorate
3.6X
2005
4.2X
2008
4.5X
2012
NUMBER OP 5APEHOU5E5 PUNDED PROM 51A1E PUND5
70.6X
2004
69.9X
2008
57.8X
2011
52.5X
2004
73.4X
2008
85.3X
2011
PERCEN1AGE OP CRlMlNAL CHARGE5 RAl5ED lN
CA5E5 OP DOME51lC VlOLENCE lN COMPARl5ON
1O OVERALL NUMBER OP REPOR1ED CA5E5
PERCEN1AGE OP CONVlC1lON5 lN CA5E5 OP
DOME51lC VlOLENCE lN COMPARl5ON 1O
NUMBER OP PRO5ECU1ED CA5E5
6
2006
10
2009
MDG 3: GENDER EQUALITY AND EMPOWERMENT OF WOMEN.

This goal has been met to a moderate extent. Labor market indicators show decreasing the gap in labour
market position of men and women. Gender disparities have been signicantly lowered in employment,
unemployment and salaries. However, this was mostly the consequence of negative eects of economic
crisis. As crisis had stronger impacts on industrial sector with higher male employment, they were more
faced with the increase of unemployment. Due to the high share of employment in public sector, women
were comparatively more protected during crisis, but it is expected that austerity measures, which will be
introduced more rmly will have negative impact on their employment. Decrease of employment in private
sector contributed to the narrowing the pay gap, since this gap was traditionally low in the public sector. A
lot was achieved in political representation of women and their participation in power there is more women
in the government and National Assembly. It should be stressed, though, that political presentation at local
level still suers from high gender inequality. Concerning the most striking form of gender inequality and
that is family violence, it could be said that situation has improved in eciency. Although the number of
criminal charges has dropped, the share of convictions in the case of charges being made has increased. Now
that women are being more present in public positions this visibility should be used to eradicate family
violence and to improve position of women on labor market.
MDG4
REDUCE
CHILD
MORTALITY
Objective 1:Between 2000 and 2015, reduce mortality of children under the age of
ve by averagely 50%
Objective 1 not achieved, but has realistic tendency to be achieved until 2015. In 2010 all values on selected
indicators were almost double smaller than in 2000 (2005 for Roma children). Among Roma children, the
mortality rates of children under the age of ve and infants were almost halved in only 5 years. The negative
sign is trend of stagnation for selected indicators on national level between 2008 and 2010, so more activi-
ties should be oriented towards keeping the trend downward.
Source for 2005: SORS, UNICEF, MICS, 2005; Source for 2010: SORS, UNICEF, MICS, 2010
MOR1ALl1 RA1E OP CHlLDREN UNDER 1HE AGE OP PlVE (PER !000 LlVE BlR1H5)
12.7
2000
7.8
2008
7.9
2010
MOR1ALl1 RA1E OP CHlLDREN UNDER 1HE AGEOP PlVE lN ROMA POPULA1lON
(PER !000 LlVE BlR1H5)
28
2008
15
2010
Source for 2010: Government of the Rep. of Serbia, First National report on social inclusion and poverty reductionin Serbia, 2010
Objective 2: Between 2000 and 2015, improve the coverage of women by antenatal
and postnatal healthcare by at least one third.
Objective 2 achieved completely. Almost all women were covered by modern health protection and had at
least one medical visit during pregnancy in 2011.
Source for 2005: SORS, UNICEF, MICS, 2005; Source for 2010: SORS, UNICEF, MICS, 2010
MOR1ALl1 RA1E OP lNPAN15 (PER !000 LlVE BlR1H5)
MOR1ALl1 RA1E OP lNPAN15 lN ROMA POPULA1lON
(PER !000 LlVE BlR1H5)
25
2008
14
2010
Source for 2010: Health statistical yearbook, 2010
COVERAGE OP PREGNAN1 WOMEN B
MODERN HEAL1H PRO1EC1lON
COVERAGE OP WOMEN B A1 LEA51 ONE
MEDlCAL PlELD Vl5l1 DURlNG PREGNANC
Source for 2010:
Batut, Health statistical yearbook, 2010
Source for 2010:
SORS, UNICEF, MICS, 2010
54.3X
2000
77.55X
2008
98X
2011
33.9X
2004
77X
2007
99X
2010
10.5
2000
6.7
2008
6.7
2010
Source for 2011: SORS, Demographic Yearbook in the Republic of Serbia, 2011
Objective 3: Between 2000 and 2015, halve the mortality rate of children under
the age of 19 from external causes of death.
Objective 3 not achieved, but has realistic tendency to be achieved until 2015.: the specic mortality rate
was almost halved by 2011
Objective 4: Between 2000 and 2015, increase the percentage of exclusively
breastfed infants from birth until six months of age to at least 30%
Objective 4 not achieved at all: there is an opposite trend of decrease in percentage of exclusively breastfed
infants, especially among Roma population
15.9
2000
10
2008
9.2
2011
5PEClPlC MOR1ALl1 RA1E UNDER 1HE AGE OP !9 PROM EX1ERNAL CAU5E5 OP
DEA1H ( PER !00 000 CHlLDREN OP 1HE 5AME AGE )
Source for 2010: SORS, UNICEF, MICS, 2010
PERCEN1AGE OP EXCLU5lVELL BREA51PED lNPAN15 PROM BlR1H UN1lL 5lX MON1H5 OP AGE
15.1X
2005
13.7X
2010
Source for 2010: SORS, UNICEF, MICS, 2010
PERCEN1AGE OP EXCLU5lVELL BREA51PED lNPAN15 PROM BlR1H UN1lL 5lX MON1H5 OP AGE
lN ROMA POPULA1lON
18X
2005
9.1X
2010
Objective 5: Between 2000 and 2015, improve the coverage of children by manda-
tory immunizations to 99.0%
Objective 5 not achieved, but it might be achieved by 2015. The increase in coverage by vaccination against
measles was signicant in period 2000-2008, however it is stagnating now. Additional measures of support
should be introduced to achieve the objective until 2015.
MDG 4: REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY.

This goal has almost been met, but the trend has been turning to stagnation in last couple of years. Child
mortality is stagnating and among the Romani children even decreasing. However, on this indicator Serbia
could score even lower. Coverage with basic immunization has increased to a very high level, with good pros-
pects for absolute coverage. Here, there are signs of stagnation just before the target has been reached.
Pregnant women have been covered by medical care to a great extent. The only indicator showing reverse
trend is breast feeding. This gap should be covered through more intensive campaign.
2000 2008 2011
PERCEN1AGE OP CHlLDREN VACClNA1ED AGAlN51 MEA5LE5
lN PlR51 !8 MON1H5 OP LlPE
Source for 2011: Batut, Health statistical yearbook, 2011
86.6X
2000
96X
2008
96.5X
2011
5HARE OP CHlLDBlR1H5 lN PRE5ENCE OP MEDlCAL WORKER5 (X)
Objective 1:By 2015, reduce the share of maternal mortality by one fth
Objective 1 not achieved: almost complete coverage of childbirths by presence of medical workers was main-
tained throughout the period of observation. However, more medical support and awareness raising of
women are needed to reduce maternal mortality rate which increased in the observed period if measured as
5 years average.
7.6
2002-2006
13.7
2007-2011
98.7X
2000
99.8X
2007
99.7X
2010
MDG5
IMPROVE
MATERNAL
HEALTH
Source for 2007-2011: Batut,Health statistical yearbooks
Source for 2010: SORS, UNICEF, MICS, 2010
5HARE OP MA1ERNAL MOR1ALl1 (WOMEN DECEA5ED DUE 1O COMPLlCA1lON
CAU5ED B PREGNANC, CHlLDBlR1H AND MA1ERNl1 PER !00 000 LlVE BlR1H5)
- 5 EAR5 AVERAGE
Objective 2: By 2015, preserve and improve the reproductive health of women by
maintaining the fertility rate at present level, reducing the rate of abortion by 50%,
and doubling the percentage of women who use modern contraceptive methods
Objective 2 not achieved: fertility rate is stagnating at low level, rate of abortions is almost halved, but still
very high and usage of modern contraception decreased almost double instead to increase double. The risk
for reproductive health of women is still unfavorable and might get even worse in the coming period.
2069.5
2000
1149.4
2007
1168.1
2010
33X
2000
37.3
2006
21
2010
Source for 2010:SORS, Statistical yearbook 2011
Source for 2011: Batut, Health statistical yearbook, 2011
Source for 2010: SORS, UNICEF, MICS, 2010
RA1E OP 1O1AL PER1lLl1 (NUMBER OP CHlLDREN PER WOMAN)
ABOR1lON5 lN REPRODUC1lVE PERlOD
(RA1E PER !00 000 WOMEN BE1WEEN !5 AND 49 EAR5 OP AGE)
PERCEN1AGE OP MARRlED WOMEN OR WOMEN lN 51ABLE RELA1lON5HlP5 BE1WEEN !5 AND 49
EAR5 OP AGE WHO U5E 5OME OP 1HE MODERN CON1RACEP1lVE ME1HOD5
1.6
2001
1.4
2007
1.4
2010
Objective 3: Between 2000 and 2015, reduce the mortality of women of fertile age
by one third
Objective 3 completely achieved: mortality rate of women of fertile age reduced by one third, mortality rate
from cancer decreasing.
MDG 5: IMPROVE MATERNAL HEALTH.
This goal has not been met. There was a major improvement in decreasing mortality rate of women and
almost all childbirths are happening in the presence of a medical worker. However, reproductive health of
women is still under risk and maternal mortality is getting worse. A lot more eort should be put in raising
of awareness of reproductive health risks and adequate health support to mothers.
129.9
2000
102
2008
84.4
2011
50.4
2000
43.2
2011
Source for 2011: Batut, Health statistical yearbook, 2011
Data for 2012 not available
MOR1ALl1 RA1E PROM ALL CAU5E5 OP DEA1H PER !00 000
WOMEN OP PER1lLE AGE
MOR1ALl1 RA1E PROM CANCER PER !00 000 WOMEN OP PER1lLE AGE
Objective 1: By 2015 reduce the spread of HIV/AIDS
Objective 1 achieved: incidence of AIDS signicantly decreased, as well as AIDS mortality rate. Although
the MDG indicators do not dierentiate the sources of infection, it should be stressed that number of newly
infected among intravenous drug users has decreased since 2000, as well as number of AIDS related
deaths, due to the major medicine available and costs covered by the Health Insurance Fund. However,
number of infections among other groups at higher risk varies it is higher among men who have sex with
men, and stable in the population of sexual workers.
MDG 5:
&
COMBAT
TUBERCULOSIS
OTHER DESEASES
HIV/AIDS
Source for 2012: Batut, The epidemic of HIV infection in the Republic of Serbia at the end of November 2012
lNClDENCE OP PER5ON5 5UPPERlNG PROM AlD5 PER ONE MlLLlON PEOPLE
AlD5 MOR1ALl1 RA1E PER ONE MlLLlON PEOPLE
10.4
2000
5.1
2008
3.6
2012
Source for 2012: Batut, The epidemic of HIV infection in the Republic of Serbia at the end of November 2012
5.6
2000
3
2008
1.6
2012
Objective 2: Improve the control of tuberculosis by implementing DOTS strategy
and achieving the 95% rate of successfully treated patients
Objective 2 almost achieved: Incidence of tuberculosis has decreased, while number of successfully treated
new patients increased to 82% already in 2007, which gives good prospects that it will reach 95% success
by 2015.
Objective 3: Increase the life expectancy by an average of two years in the period
from 2000 to 2015 and reduce the share of population describing their health as
poor and very poor
Objective 3 achieved: already in 2011 life expectancy of both men and women increased for around two
years in average. It cannot be established if those who are dissatised with their health decreased in number,
but the trend between 2000 and 2006 was stagnant.
74.75
2000
76.2
2007
76.8
2011
32
2005
25
2008
20
2011
69X
2005
82X
2011
Source for 2011: Batut, Health statistical yearbook, 2011
Data for 2012 not available
lNClDENCE OP 1UBERCULO5l5 PER !00 000 PEOPLE
5UCCE55PULL 1REA1ED NEWL Dl5COVERED 1UBERCULO5l5 PA1lEN15 (X)
Source for 2011: SORS, Population statistics
LlPE EXPEC1ANC OP WOMEN A1 BlR1H
PERCEN1AGE OP OUNG PEOPLE BE1WEEN !5 AND !9 EAR5 OP AGE WHO 5MOKE
(OCCA5lONALL OR CON51AN1L)
Objective 4: Reduce risky behaviors by 10% from 2000 to 2015
Objective 4 achieved partially already in 2006: signicant achievement in reduction of smoking behavior
and modest in reduction of alcohol consumption, but increase in trying psychoactive substances. It is hard
to predict trends without new data provided by Institute for Public Health
Source for 2011: SORS, Population statistics
LlPE EXPEC1ANC OP MEN A1 BlR1H
69.9
2000
70.7
2007
71.6
2011
15
2000
15.7
2006
PERCEN1AGE OP OUNG PEOPLE BE1WEEN !5 AND !9 EAR5 OP AGE WHO DO NO1
CON5UME ALCHOCOL BEVERAGE5
22.9
2000
15.5
2006
58.8
2000
63.6
2006
MDG 6: COMBAT HIV/AIDS, TUBERCILOSIS AND OTHER DISEASES.
This goal has been met to a great extent, especially with regard to HIV/AIDS incidence. Number of infec-
tions and number of deaths decreased since 2000. The same stands for tuberculosis: the incidence has
decreased, while the treatment of new cases has tendency to reach desired 95%. The increase in life expec-
tancy is also important and brings Serbia closer to European average. The issue with young people trying
psychoactive substances is serious and demands wide and well coordinated action of awareness raising and
prevention.
Data for 2012 not available
PERCEN1AGE OP OUNG PEOPLE BE1WEEN !5 AND !9 EAR5 OP AGE WHO HAVE 1RlED
P5CHOAC1lVE 5UB51ANCE5
6.9
2000
9.3
2006
Objective 1: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country poli-
cies, stop the loss of environmental resources and encourage their revitalization
Objective 1 achieved: the share of forested areas is slowly growing, percentage of households that use solid
fuel is almost halved and Carbon-dioxide emission decreases again. Besides that, after the National
Strategy of Sustainable Development was enacted in 2008, several local Strategies of Sustainable Devel-
opment were produced in Serbian municipalities. The issue of environmental sustainability is more
frequently treated in media, supporting awareness raising among citizens
25.6X
2000
SUSTAINABILITY
ENVIRONMENTAL
ENSURE
MDG 7.
29.1X
2006
32X
2012
Source for 2011: Ministry of Energy, Development and the Environment,
Report on the state of the environment in Serbia, 2011
Source for 2010: SORS, UNICEF, MICS, 2010
PERCEN1AGE OP PORE51ED AREA5 lN RELA1lON 1O 1HE 1O1AL AREA OP 1HE
REPUBLlC OP 5ERBlA (X)
60X
2000
54.2X
2006
31.6X
2012
PERCEN1AGE OP HOU5EHOLD5 U5lNG 5OLlD PUEL lN RELA1lON
1O 1O1AL NUBER OP HOU5EHOLD5 (X)
PERCEN1AGE OP WA1ER 5AMPLE5 PROM CON1ROLED PUBLlC WA1ERWORK5 WlCH
MEE1 1HE PH5lCAL, CHEMlCAL AND BlLOGlCAL REQUlREMEN15
Objective 2: Reduce the percentage of population without appropriate access to safe
drinking water, basic sanitation and organized communal waste collection
Objective 2 achieved: There is more households attached to public waterworks and the water they are using
is of better quality. Also, the number of households attached to the public sewage system is increasing.
CARBON-DlOXlDE EMl55lON PER CAPl1A (1ON5 OP CO2 PER CAPl1A)
Source for 2009: World Bank
4.43X
2000
7.18X
2006
6.3X
2012
Source for 2010: SORS, UNICEF, MICS, 2010
Source for 2011: Batut, Health statistical yearbook, 2011
PERCEN1AGE OP HOU5EHOLD5 Wl1H ACCE55 1O PUBLlC WA1ERWORK5 (X)
PERCEN1AGE OP HOU5EHOLD5 Wl1H ACCE55 1O PUBLlC 5EWAGE 551EM (X)
69X
2002
78.31X
2008
Source for 2010: SORS, UNICEF, MICS, 2010
33X
2002
35.03X
2008
54X
2010
79X
2010
40X
2005
50.06X
2008
84.65X
2011
MDG 7. ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY.
At rst impression it seems that this goal has been met to a great extent. Progress has been recorded at all
indicators. There is less pollution and more orientation towards cleaner energy. More households have
access to clean water. However, it should be stressed rst that some of the values on the selected indicators
could be improved (decrease of usage of solid fuel, the level of air pollution) and second, that trends in many
indicators of environmental sustainability have high variation and that progress in this area is highly sensitive
to economic situation and institutional support.
Objective 1: Dynamic and sustainable growth of gross domestic product
Objective 1 not achieved: after a few years of positive trends, almost all indicators of economic progress
worsened. GDP growth was negative in 2012, direct foreign investments are decreasing, share of foreign
debt in GDP is above critical limits and share of foreign trade balance only slightly decreasing. There are
some signs of recovery in 2013, but it is hard that situation will improve much until 2015.
FOR GROWTH
PARTNERSHIP
GLOBAL
DEVELOP
MDG 8.
Source for 2012: Ministry of Finance and Economy
Source for 2012:
Serbian Chamber of Commerce
6X
2005
5.4X
2009
-2X
2012
3.408X
2005
6.805X
2008
5.161X
2012
GDP PER CAPl1A, U5D GDP GROW1H RA1E
-20.8X
2005
-22.8X
2008
-19.9X
2012
Share of foreign debt in GDP ,%
PORElGN 1RADE BALANCE, X GDP
5HARE OP DlREC1 PORElGN
lNVE51MEN15 lN GDP ,X
BALANCE OP ACCOUN15 OP
BALANCE OP PAMEN15, X GDP
5HARE OP PORElGN DEB1
lN GDP ,X
Source for 2012: Ministry of Finance and Economy
8.6X
2005
17.4X
2008
10.5X
2012
6.1X
2005
5.1X
2008
0.8X
2012
64X
2005
63.6X
2008
75.6X
2012
Source for 2012: Dev Info, SORS, Department of Informational - Communicational technologies
Objective 2: Increase the accessibility of new technologies to a much larger number
of citizens
Objective 2 partially achieved: there is a constant growth of both number of computers and number of
internet users. However, the number of internet users is still bellow European average and it cannot be said
that the new technologies became accessible to much higher number of citizens.
Objective 3: Increase the investments in human resources development
Objective 3 not achieved: the share of budget expenditures for education is stagnating, with announced
negative trend due to austerity measures. The same will happen with the share for healthcare, which already
experienced decrease between 2008 and 2011. These trends are especially worrying since they jeopardize
human resources as developmental driver to a great extent.
NUBER OP lN1ERNE1 U5ER5 PER !00 PEOPLE
NUBER OP PER5ONAL COMPU1ER5 PER !00 PEOPLE
43.2X
2006
52X
2008
61.1X
2012
31.6X
2006
40.8X
2008
51.6X
2012
Source for 2011: Dev Info, Ministry of Finance and Economy
5HARE OP BUDGE1 EXPENDl1URE5 POR EDUCA1lON lN GDP, X
3.5X
2001
3.8X
2008
3.9X
2011
MDG 8: DEVELOP GLOBAL PARTNERSHIPS FOR GROWTH.
This goal has been basically presented through economic indicators. Consequently, the worse score in meet-
ing Millennium Development Goals in Serbia was made with regard to this one. Growth rate is low, GDP is
decreasing, direct foreign investments are extremely low, and the share of foreign trade decit and indebt-
edness in GDP are above critical limits. Under these circumstances it should be assessed as positive that
budget share of public education and public health care remained on more or less same level, although below
European average. However, it is worrying that under proposed austerity measures these two important
sectors will be jeopardized, which points to necessity of dening socially sustainable model of economic
growth for the future.
5HARE OP BUDGE1 EXPENDl1URE5 POR HEAL1HCARE lN GDP, X
Source for 2011: Dev Info, Ministry of Finance and Economy
5.7X
2005
5.7X
2008
5.4X
2011
CONCLU5lON5
In this barometer we presented basic trends in all 8 MDGs based on set of selected indicators. From
the results presented above, a general conclusion could be made that recession caused by Global eco-
nomic crisis has produced delays in completion of the objectives set in 2000. The deterioration of the
trends presented in 2009 mid-report did not aect all aspects of development equally. What are the
areas of development with largest delays?
Here we can utilize MDG methodology the most. Dierentiation of human development into several
aspects and setting of goals in dierent dimensions of development is useful for further analysis and
policy planning. Current brief review of MDG achievements shows that Serbia suers from negative
economic performance and this aects directly indicators like poverty or unemployment. Indirectly,
some other indicators have been aected, as well, like budget shares for education and health care, but
consequences of these aspects of austerity are not fully visible yet. On the contrary, there is noticeable
progress in many non-economic dimensions of human development, like gender equality, primary edu-
cation quality, maternal mortality, HIV and tuberculosis prevention MDGs showed that despite
numerous economic diculties institutions in Serbia managed to maintain support to basic social
functions. The problem is that many of the indicators are maintained at low level: birth rate is still
negative, decrease of abortions insucient, youth employment very low, PISA scores under the aver-
age. Another problem is that trends are stagnating in many indicators, which points to risk of worsen-
ing in respective dimensions of social and economic life in coming years. The need for new development
cycle is evident and denition of new development goals for post 2015 period could be a very useful
tool in initiating this process.
It is economic growth and employment that should be put at the top of priorities in order to initiate a
new cycle of development. Or rather in dierent order: employment and growth, to avoid (repeated)
risk of jobless growth. Besides that, more eorts should be invested in improving performances of edu-
cation system and maternal health. It should be stressed, though, that even under circumstances of
scarcity and austerity many achievements have been made in overall social development and in pro-
tection of vital human resources. This fact tells that Serbia has a vision of modern and just society, as
well as institutional capacities to sustain policies directed towards sustainable development. These are
important resources to be activated in post 2015 cycle.