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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com! ValuEngine.com.
VALUATION WARNING: Our models find that overvaluation is at levels typically seen when market pullbacks occur. Overvalued stocks now make up 76% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 39.53% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. 15 of 16 sectors are calculated to be overvalued--13 of them by double digits. MARKET OVERVIEW
Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500
Week Open
15249.82 3737.6 1065.67 1687.26
Thurs. Close
14,996.50 3,774.34 1,070.90 1,678.66
Change
-253.32 36.74 5.23 -8.6
% Change
-1.66% 0.98% 0.49% -0.51%
YTD
14.44% 25.00% 26.08% 17.70%
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities
Change
-0.51% -0.85% -0.61% -1.22% -0.71% -0.97% -0.74% -0.64% -0.67% -1.03% -0.60% -0.92% -0.48% -1.07% -1.04% -0.80%
MTD
0.76% -0.38% -0.21% -0.80% 0.58% 0.47% -0.25% -0.25% -0.34% -0.43% 0.62% -0.53% 0.76% -0.24% -0.14% 0.04%
YTD
32.28% 48.52% 5.50% 27.15% 35.18% 31.56% 33.85% 18.74% 25.33% 31.33% 209.04% 10.32% 27.64% 32.89% 28.08% 14.93%
Valuation
21.21% overvalued 26.11% overvalued 4.59% undervalued 21.70% overvalued 23.69% overvalued 16.08% overvalued 22.95% overvalued 15.29% overvalued 17.67% overvalued 20.71% overvalued 21.98% overvalued 18.03% overvalued 7.46% overvalued 24.60% overvalued 24.16% overvalued 8.93% overvalued
Last 12MReturn
32.37% 47.45% -27.47% 27.44% 26.04% 30.76% 33.04% 20.70% 14.17% 35.67% 26.69% 14.83% 7.29% 37.12% 34.83% 9.44%
P/E Ratio
16.75 21.3 20.12 24.41 30.35 26.34 26.09 22.5 17.48 23.19 26.99 18.69 26.32 24.19 19.58 20.2
S&P 500
-0.55 -0.83 -0.21 -1.12
S&P 500
0.15 2.16 3.32 2.74
Since Inception
104.3 7.46 32.25 74.2
S&P 500
84.77 9.04 22.39 49.9
Sector TalkAerospace
Below, we present the latest data on leading Aerospace Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI) . These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.
Name
ROCKWELL COLLIN RAYTHEON CO LOCKHEED MARTIN NORTHROP GRUMMN L-3 COMM HLDGS
Mkt Price
66.84 74.92 122.83 93.08 92.67
Valuation(%)
18.92 27.53 19.46 20.08 27.03
Name
ROCKWELL COLLIN RAYTHEON CO LOCKHEED MARTIN NORTHROP GRUMMN L-3 COMM HLDGS
Mkt Price
66.84 74.92 122.83 93.08 92.67
Valuation(%)
18.92 27.53 19.46 20.08 27.03
Name
ERICKSON AIR-CR NORTHROP GRUMMN LOCKHEED MARTIN ALLIANT TECHSYS RAYTHEON CO
Mkt Price
18.7 93.08 122.83 96.48 74.92
Valuation(%)
-17.27 20.08 19.46 17.85 27.53
Name
ORBITAL SCIENCE GENCORP INC EXELIS INC HEICO CORP AAR CORP
Mkt Price
21.59 15.72 16 65.43 26.76
Valuation(%)
36.11 35.32 34.04 33 32.18
Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know, ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a variety of portfolio screening and creation tools. If you are reading this you should sign up for ValuEngine's award-winning To Sign Up for a stock valuation and forecast FREE TRIAL, service Please Click HERE NO OBLIGATION, 30 DAY FREE TRIAL!
This chart shows overall universe under and over valuation in excess of 50% vs the S&P 500 from June 2012 to the present.
This chart shows overall universe under and over valuation in excess of 50% vs the S&P 500 from March 2007 to the present.
In addition to the overall valuation metrics, we see that on a sector basis 15 of 16 sectors are calculated to be overvalued. This is another indicator that investors should consider implementing additional risk management tools and/or booking some profits.
Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(2.612) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 2.907 and 3.227 with a monthly pivot at 2.603, and daily, annual, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.550, 2.476, 2.252 and 1.981. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold ($1317.3) My monthly value level is $1145.2 with a daily pivot at $1318.5, and weekly,quarterly and annual risky levels at $1401.6, $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($103.02) Daily and monthly value levels are $102.17 and $99.84 with weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $105.87, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23. The Euro (1.3620) Annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2782, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with daily and weekly pivots at 1.3591 and 1.3451 and my annual risky at 1.4295. Major Indices Daily Dow: (14,996) Daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 14,964, 14,696, 14,724 and 12,696 with the Sept. 18 all time high at 15,709.59, and monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 15,932, 16,490 and 16,775. S&P 500 (1677.7) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1641.5, 1606.9, 1400.7 and 1348.3 with a daily pivot at 1677.1, the Sept. 19 all time high at 1729.86, and semiannual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1743.5, 1746.4 and 1853.8. NASDAQ (3774) Semiannual, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 3759, 3695, 3668 and 2806 with a daily risky level at 3802, the Oct. 1 multi-year high at 3817.98, and monthly and quarterly risky level at 3830 and 4025.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (3214) Weekly and annual value levels are 3165 and 2463 with a daily risky level at 3235, the Oct. 1 multi-year high at 3254.33, a monthly pivot at 3254, and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 3304 and 3477. Dow Transports (6574) Weekly and annual value levels are 6318, 5925 and 5469 with a daily pivot at 6582, the Sept. 20 all time high at 6754.81, and monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 6811, 7104 and 7205. Russell 2000 (1070.91) Weekly and annual value levels are 1034.93 and 809.54 with a daily risky level at 1080.41, the Oct. 1 all time high at 1087.78, and semiannual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1089.42, 1092.46 and 1163.21. The SOX (493.80) Weekly and annual value levels are 470.81 and 338.03 with a daily risky level at 496.38, the Sept. 19 high at 500.24, and monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky level at 512.13, 514.87 and 533.56. Dow Utilities: (478.91) My weekly value level is 457.20 with a daily pivot at 476.81, and monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 512.80, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37.
Stock of the Day One of the more popular features of Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing for investors is his stock of the day. In every issue, Suttmeier highlights one stock and provides VE data as well as his own proprietary technical data. Here is today's stock of the day from Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing Newsletter. Cisco Systems (CSCO) ($23.01) Cisco Systems, Inc. is the worldwide leader in networking for the Internet. Cisco's Internet Protocol-based networking solutions are the foundation of the Internet and most corporate, education, and government networks around the world. Cisco provides the broadest line of solutions for transporting data, voice and video within buildings, across campuses, or around the world.
Analysis Cisco has a Buy rating according to ValuEngine with fair value at $21.18, which makes the stock 10.1% overvalued. The ValuEngine one-year price target is $24.66. The daily chart for Cisco shows declining momentum with the stock above its 200-day simple moving average at $22.69 and below its 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages at $24.00 and 24.55. My weekly value level is $21.93 with semiannual and annual pivots at $22.39, $22.76 and $23.47 and monthly risky level at $25.40.
Richard Suttmeier has been a professional in the US Capital Markets since 1972 transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world. He earned a Bachelor of Industrial Engineering degree from Georgia Institute of Technology in 1966, and a Master of Science, Operations Research, Systems Analysis degree from Brooklyn Polytechnic University in 1970. Over the years Richard appeared many times in the financial media, on networks such as CNBC, CNN, CNNfn, New York 1, Bloomberg TV and radio, Fox Business, Business News Network in Canada, Wall Street Week with Fortune, Yahoo Finance Breakout, and the Bill Mazer Radio Show. In 2002, he anchored his own show on Yahoo Finance Vision called, "Traders' Club with Richard Suttmeier." Richard has been frequently quoted in USA Today, The NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and The Dow Jones Newswires. Richard has made numerous speaking appearances in recent years to groups such as the Market Technicians Associations, the American Association of Individual Investors, Wells Fargo Advisors, the Executive Forum at the National Arts Club, and the Investors Roundtable of Wilmington NC.
Now YOU can take advantage of the same market and trading expertise as the financial media with Richard Suttmeier's ValuTrader Model Portfolio The ValuTrader Portfolio Newsletter is based on ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier's proprietary market analytics. Suttmeier combines his technical analysis expertise with ValuEngine's proprietary valuation, forecast, and ratings data for more than 4000 equities trading on US markets to come up with a 20 stock portfolio tailored to current market conditions. With ValuTrader, subscribers access Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" strategy with a portfolio designed to function well in both up and down markets. Every edition of Richard Suttmeier's ValuTrader model portfolio includes technical risk, pivot, and value levels, as well as critical ValuEngine data points-ratings, valuation, and forecast--for the current portfolio. Whenever Suttmeier buys a new stock or sells a current holding, subscribers receive an email alert so that they can take advantage of Suttmeier's proven market-timing expertise. The portfolio may include long as well as short positions according to Suttmeier's read of the markets. Click HERE to Sign Up for Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier's ValuTrader Model Portfolio
With Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing, you get daily analysis of US Treasury Yields, Gold, Crude Oil, and Currency Exchange Rates-Dollar, Yen, Pound, and Euro--as well as key technical indicators for the major equity averages.
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