Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Tripled Demand & Doubled Supply in 2 decades, heavily Fossil based Energy dependent! Main factors incl. Population & Economic (GDP) growth rate !
1 !
10/7/13 !
11/09/12!
! 2
Rapid increase in nal energy demand (domestic) between 2010 and 2030 to support GDP growth rate averaging 7.6% (base) and 10.4% (MP3EI), the baseline scenario is estimated to increase 3 times of 2010, namely close to 3,000 million BOE per year, whereas in scenario MP3EI reached more than 4-fold ! Energy supply in 2030 will be dominated by fossil energy sources (82%).! Coal became the main supplier of energy in the energy mix since 2015, amounting to 31% and to 38% in 2030.! The share of natural gas (Basic Scenario) decreased slightly (15.6%), but still higher than EBT (13%), and rewood (10%) in 2015.!
2 !
10/7/13 !
Base Case scenario: the provision of NRE grew > 8% per year; increase use of NRE > 4x fold: from 141 million BOE in 2010 to 670 million BOE in 2030.! EBT rapid growth has not been able to increase its role in the national energy mix.!
11/09/12!
2030: biofuel become the main RE utilization, particularly for transportation sector, follows by geothermal, Hydro, Biomass, solar, Waste, and Wind (total 17,5% base case)!
11/09/12!
3 !
10/7/13 !
!
2010 2030:! Multiply by ~ 5 - 7 folds! 33,2 GW (2010) -> 162 GW (2030, Base, 8%/th). ! ! ! Coal PP: Primary Tech.! 2030: 97,6 GW (base) and 160,7 GW MP3EI). ! !-->228 GW (2030, MP3EI, 10%/th) !
!
2010 s.d. 2030: RE Power Generation ~6x; 6,6 -> 39 GW! Types: Geothermal, Hydro, Biomass, Nuclear, Solar PV, Coal Gasication/CCT, Wind, Waste/W2E ! Geothermal & Hydro: 12 GW (7%) and 18,3 GW(11%) in 2030. ! Nuclear is predicted to produce 2 GW (1%) in 2028, 4 GW (2%) in2030. !
4 !
10/7/13 !
5 !
10/7/13 !
Smart Grid !
1979: !
Wind Energy Biomass ! PV Hybrid! Technology ! Gasication ! Piloting! Biomass/ (Low Velocity) ! Geothermal ! Microturbine! Biogas Power Pilot plant! Cogeneration! Generation ! Appl. Proj.! OTEC Bali Microhydro! (Design) ! Ocean Current Biohydrogen! Piloting! Production! Prototyping & ! 1985: ! 1990: ! 1995 2003! 2006 2010: !potential mapping!
2012 - !
Biofuels for Transportation ! Biodiesel! Small Plant Dev.! Geothermal Power Plant PV Industry Prototyping! Feasibility Tap-Chan+ Assessment! OWC Study 14 ! (Baron)!
6 !
10/7/13 !
N! N! Y! Y! Y! Y! Y! Y!
Y! Y! N! N! Y! N! N! N!
N! N! Y! Y! Y! Y! Y! NA!
N! N! Y! Y! N! Y! Y! Y!
Y! Y! N! N! Y! N! Y! Y!
N! N! Y! Y! N! Y! Y! Y!
7 !
10/7/13 !
16
8 !