Source:

The rational manager. Carles H. Kepner and Benjamin B. Tregoe published by Princeton Research Press, Princeton, New Jersey

Kepner Tregoe
Situation Appraisal

Identify Concerns Threats & Opportunities Separation & Clarification concerns Current Impact

Set Priority Future Impact Time Frame (Urgency) Highest Priority

Next Steps Action needed

Plan Involvement Help needed

Kepner Tregoe
Situation Appraisal Identify Concerns Threats & Opportunities Concerns Separation & Clarification concerns What do we mean by Current Impact What is the current impact on people safety, etc? Which concern is most serious? Set Priority Future Impact What will be the future impact? Which concern is getting worse quicker? Time Frame (Urgency) What is the deadline? When do we need to start? Highest Priority Next Steps Actions Determine analysis needed Do we need further clarification Do we have a deviation? Is cause unknown? Do we need to know the cause of a deviation Do we need to make a choice? Plan Involvement Help needed Who Does What When What needs to be done and when?

Deviations

What exactly is?

Decisions

What else concerns us about?

Which concern will be the hardest to resolve later?

Plans

What evidence do se have? What different deviations, decisions, or plans are part of this concern?

Changes

Opportunities

Do we have an action or plan to protect (enhance)? What do we need to do about the concern? What additional analysis is needed

Who needs to be involved for Information? Analysis? Creativity? Commitment? Approval? Implementation? Development? Who will document our process and results?

Kepner Tregoe Problem Analysis

Problem Analysis State Problem Specify IS Problem What Where When Extent Identify Possible Causes Explanation IS NOT Evaluate Possible Causes Condition Explains only if Explanation

Distinction Changes Possible Does not Causes explain

Kepner Tregoe Problem Analysis

Problem Analysis State Problem What object(s) has the deviation What tell us there is a deviation IS IS NOT What object? What object(s) not have deviation? What Not deviation? observed deviations Identify Possible Causes Evaluate Possible Causes Explanation To test against the facts Condition Use distinction and changes to Test possible causes against the IS overcome too few or too many and IS NOT specification (to possible causes eliminate causes that do not make sense) Different, odd, special, unique Determine most probable cause Changed, when, cause deviation? Confirm true case (assumptions-fix) Distinction Changes Possible Does Explains Explanation Causes not only if explain

Specify Problem What

Where Where geographically? Where on the object? When When first? When since? When in cycle? Extent How many objects? Size? How many deviations? Trend? 4

Think Beyond the Fix (To prevent recurring problems and make the fix work properly) Ask problem analysis questions to think beyond the fix Extend the Cause What other damage could this cause create? Where else could the cause create problems? What cause the case? Extend the Fix What identical things need the same fix? What problems could this fix cause? Information gathered from the questions

Kepner Tregoe

Decision Analysis
Purpose State Decision Alternatives Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Score Objective 1 Weight Objectives Objective 2 Objective 3 Weight Weight Objective n Weight Risks Identify Adverse consequences Assess threats

P /S

Alternative n

Decision Analysis
Purpose Clarify Purpose State Decision What is the purpose of this decision? What is the appropriate decision level? Objectives Determine weight, rank, or percentage What results do What What we want? resources restrictions should we do we have? What objectives use or save? need to be more specific? Risks Assess Risks Identify Adverse consequences What are the implications of being close to a MUST limit? Where might information about this information be invalid? What are the implications? What could go wrong, short and long term if this alternative were chosen? Assess threats How likely is each adverse consequence? (P) What impact will this adverse consequence have? (S) P /S

Alternatives Generate Alternatives What choices do we have

Score

Alternative 1 Alternative 2

Screen Musts/Wants How does this alternative satisfy this objective? Eliminate alternatives that do not meet all MUST objectives If objective is Objective 1 mandatory, Weight measurable, and realistic, it is a MUST For the other objectives what is relative importance of each WANT M/W

Objective 2 Weight

Objective n Weight

Alternative n 7

Kepner Tregoe
Potential Problem/Opportunity Analysis Action Potential Problems Probability/Seriousness Likely Causes Preventive Actions Contingent Actions Triggers

Kepner Tregoe
Potential Problem/Opportunity Analysis Action State the action What is the end result to be achieved What actions need to be taken to reach the end result? Which of these are critical? Write short, clear statements. Include action, result, and modifiers (time frame and cost for instance). Probability/ Seriousness What could go worse H, M, L / H, M, L than expected? Potential Problems Likely Causes What could cause the potential problem to occur? What else could cause? Preventive Actions What can we do to prevent this likely cause from happening? What can we do to reduce the chances of this likely cause happening? How can we keep this likely cause from creating the potential problem? List many preventive actions -assign responsibility and resources for each Contingent Actions What will we do if these potential problems happen? What will minimize the effects if the potential problem happens? What can we do to recover as quickly, cheaply, and effectively as possible? Select reasonable contingent actions for most likely, serious potential problems Triggers How will we know the potential problem has occurred? What will cause the contingent action to start?

What problems could this action cause?

Explain how each cause could create the potential problem

Automatic and Non-automatic