Transport network vulnerability

– which terminology and metrics

should we use?

Nectar Cluster 1 Seminar

Transport Network Vulnerability
12 -13 May 2005 Molde, Norway

Jan Husdal
Molde Research Institute

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Jan Husdal

holds an MSc in Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
from the University of Leicester, UK, 2000, focussing on
least--cost paths and network analysis
least

has been working with issues related to risk assessment,
vulnerability analysis and community planning since 1989,
working for several regional government agencies, before
joining MFM (Molde Research Institute) in November 2005

has since 2004 served as a member of the program
committee on European Policy and Research with the
Association for European Transport, AET

was in 2005 appointed as member of the Transportation
Economics Committee ABE20 with the Transportation
Research Board, TRB

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Background I – RISIT (2002-2007)

The transport sector in
general has very limited
experience with regard to
risk based management

Cost-benefit analyses and

environmental impact
analyses are being used, but
risk analyses and risk
acceptance criteria are not.

Risk and vulnerability as a

concept and as a
management tool has no
marked tradition among the
Norwegian road authorities
or amongst the international
road authorities
www.program.forskningsradet.no/risit/ 3
Background II – Goverment strategies

The transport sector is likely to
be increasingly affected by the
consequences of infrastructure
breakdown/disruption caused by
accidents, natural disasters,
climate change and terrorist acts

Risk and vulnerability analyses

should be applied across sectors
to improve cost/benefit
evaluations of security and
contingency measures, to better
understand vulnerability within
and between sectors and modes,
and to improve the quality and
efficacy of current systems and
measures.

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Publications, presentations, conferences

Samferdsel (2/2004)

Pålitelighet og sårbarhet – et ikke-tema i nyttekostanalyser?

INSTR 2004, 20-24 August 2004, Christchurch NZ

Reliability and vulnerability vs. costs and benefits

Reviewed abstract

Conference proceedings

ETC 2004, 4-6 October 2004, Strasbourg, France

Reliability/vulnerability vs. costs/benefits

Reviewed abstract

Conference Proceedings

TRB 2005, 9-13 January 2005, Washington DC, USA

The vulnerability of road networks in a cost-benefit perspective

Full paper peer-reviewed by 5 reviewers

Conference proceedings

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Problem statement

Road networks are vulnerable to many (external) circumstances

Additional costs incur when people, travellers or goods do not reach
their destination in space or time as intended.

Delays

Diversions/detours

Late delivery, non-delivery, early delivery

Just-in-time

Perishable goods

This is particularly an issue in sparse, non-
non-congested, rural networks,
networks

vulnerability is here more an issue than reliability (travel time variability)

because the network is so essential for access to community services for the
local population and access to markets for the local businesses.

Vulnerability of a transport network

The network’s susceptibility to failure (disruption, degradation).

Reliability of a transport network

The probability that the network functions, or rather: does not fail to function.

Reliability = Benefit ---- Vulnerability = Cost

What is the (expected) vulnerability cost of using a particular route (or

link on a route)?

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Project evaluation and Vulnerability

Some of the elements that project evaluation procedures should take explicitly into account
in order to incorporate considerations of vulnerability are the following:

The probability and impact of failure of a given network, link or route,

given external circumstances or strenuous conditions

The probability of the external circumstances occurring

The robustness of the system

the probability that the system will continue to function

even if a threat eventuates at a vulnerable point

The time and cost to repair the system

if the threat occurs

and the system fails at its vulnerable point

The costs to the general economy of such a failure

goods and passengers not getting to their destinations, or getting there late,

transportation carriers being forced to use expensive detours, etc.

The contribution of a given project

to improving the robustness

and hence reliability of the system

The degree of risk aversion that should be applied

in deciding what weight to place on the risk that has been identified

(level of threat x level of vulnerability)

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The cost of vulnerability

Vulnerability

The costs of vulnerability versus reliability. A - current state, B – high investment (e.g. new
road), C – low investment (e.g. upgrading existing road), D - optimum 8
Research questions

Can one establish a practice-oriented methodology for
network and
aggregating a vulnerability index for a road network,
the costs associated with various vulnerabilities?

What is the vulnerability cost of transport on a particular

route or link on a route?

What is the vulnerability cost of location in relation to the

neighbouring transport network?

How do transport-dependent entities adapt to

transport--related uncertainties
transport uncertainties?

Suppliers – producers – customers

JIT, inventory, lead times, scheduling, routing etc.

Surveys and in-depth interviews to establish criteria values
and weights

Case studies of selected firms
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Bottlenecks in freight transport by road

A multi-criteria approach
in assessing monetary
and non-monetary
effects of bottlenecks

V = Vulnerability
V = Σ CiIi C = Category weight
I = Impact score
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Thank You…

Questions?

Source: www.avisa-hordaland.no
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