Abstract

A study has been conducted to study and evaluate the number of people who
enter in the city of Muree (each week), during the peak season. The amount of
money spent has been rounded to the nearest one thousand rupees and the number
of tourists visiting in the previous years has also been rounded to the nearest
thousand. Thus one can analyze that how the number of tourists varies with the
changing of different factors like fare from Lahore to Muree, the temperature and
the amount spent on the promotion of Muree.
Problem Statement
The question arises whether there is a significant difference in the
number of tourists by changing different variables like temperature, amount of money
spent and he fare from Lahore to Muree. We will see how much independent variable
explains variation in the dependent variable. The greater the variation the more valid the
line would be.
We will test the following hypothesis for following population means of
dependent variables.

H0 : µ = 7.5
Against alternative hypothesis

H1 : µ ≠ 7.5

Description
The numbers of people visiting Muree in the last twelve years have been
given. The data given can be used to find out the effect of given variables i.e. Fare from
Lahore to Muree, money spent on promotion and temperature. This data can be used then
to find out that whether the Muree tourist agency should spend on promotion or they
should alter the fare from Lahore to Muree.

The number of cases studied=12

Different variable names
Tourists:
The number of tourists that visited Muree during a week. (in thousands)
Price:
Number of Pakistani rupees charged for a round trip from Lahore to Muree. (In
thousands)
Promot:
The amount spent on promoting the city (in thousands of rupees)
Temp:
Mean temperature during the week in Muree (In degree Celsius)
Note: the data is shown in appendix

Analysis

Graphical presentation
5

1
Std. Dev = 1.05
Mean = 7.86

0 N = 12.00
6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00

TOURIST
The above graph shows the number of tourists that visited Muree for last few years. Most
of the times the people visiting are 7.00 .the shape of the distribution is normal peaked
and positively skewed.

1 Std. Dev = 3.77

Mean = 36.3
0 N = 12.00
30.0 32.5 35.0 37.5 40.0

PRICE

The above graph shows the variation in price of a ticket from Lahore to Muree for last
few years. This graph is negatively skewed. In addition to this graph gas a slightly higher
peak
 6

1 Std. Dev = 1.12

Mean = 9.49

0 N = 12.00
8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 10.50 11.00 11.50

PROMOT

This graph shows the money spent on promotion since last few years. The graph is low
peaked as well as is positively skewed. Most of the time the money spent on promotion is
8.5.

1
Std. Dev = .81
Mean = 16.27

0 N = 12.00
15.50 16.00 16.50 17.00 17.50

TEMP
The graph shows the temperature of Muree since the past few years. The graph is highly
peaked as well as it is positively skewed. Most of the times the temperature in Muree is
around 15.5.

Descriptive statistics

De scriptiv e Statistics

N Mean Std. Skewness Kurtosis

Statistic Statistic Deviation
Statistic Statistic Std. Error Statistic Std. Error
TOURIST 12 7.8583 1.0466 .895 .637 -.062 1.232
PRICE 12 36.2500 3.7689 -.478 .637 -.868 1.232
PROMOT 12 9.4917 1.1172 .959 .637 -.232 1.232
TEMP 12 16.2750 .8081 .392 .637 -1.164 1.232
Valid N (listwise) 12

The above output is calculated by using SPSS.The data shows that 12 outputs are taken
for each variable i.e. tourist, price, promot, temp.The data indicates that the average
number of tourists visiting is 7.85 approximately, while the average price for the ticket is
around 36.250.The average amount spent on promotion is 9.4917 approx and the average
temperature of muree is almost 16.27.
The data also reflects that the Skewness for the tourists is 0.895 which shows that the
distribution for the tourists is positively skewed. The coefficient of kurtosis for the
number of tourists is -.062 which shows that the distribution is normal peaked.
We can also find out that the Skewness for the price is almost -.478.It indicates that the
distribution for the price is negatively skewed. The coefficient of kurtosis for the price
charged is -0.868 which shows that the distribution has a slightly higher peak.
The analysis shows that the Skewness for the amount spent on promotion is 0.959 which
indicates that the Skewness for the price is positively skewed. The coefficient of kurtosis
is -0.232 which shows that the distribution is low peaked.
The Skewness for the temperature is 0.392 which shows that the Skewness for the price
is positive. The coefficient of kurtosis is -1.164 which shows that the distribution is
normal peaked.
The standard deviation for tourists is 1.0466, while standard deviation for the price of
ticket is 3.7689; the standard deviation for promotion and the standard deviation for
temperature are 1.1172 and 0.8081 respectively.

T-Test
One-Sample Statistics
One -Sample Statistics

Std. Error
N Mean Std. Deviation Mean
TOURIST 12 7.8583 1.0466 .3021

One -Sample Te st

Test Value = 7.5

95% Confidence
Interval of the
Mean Difference
t df Sig. (2-tailed) Difference Lower Upper
TOURIST 1.186 11 .261 .3583 -.3066 1.0233

One-Sample Test

From the above table the p-value is greater the assigned level of significance that is
0.05.therefore we can conclude that the mean of the dependent variable “tourist” is not
significantly different from the estimated value that is 7.5
We can also find out the upper and lower limits are -.3066 and1.0233 respectively.

Regression
 Variable s Ente re d/Re mov ebd

Variables Variables
Model Entered Removed Method
1 TEMP,
PRICE, a . Enter
PROMOT
2 Backward
(criterion:
Probabilit
. TEMP y of
F-to-remo
ve >=
.100).
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: TOURIST

Initially we entered three independent variables. Later the temperature was removed
because it was insignificant.

M ode l Summary

Adjusted Std. Error of

Model R R Square R Square the Estimate
1 .984 a .969 .958 .2154
2 .980 b .961 .952 .2293
a. Predictors: (Constant), TEMP, PRICE, PROMOT
b. Predictors: (Constant), PRICE, PROMOT

The above table shows how much independent variable explains variation in the
dependent variable. Two models are given. In first model we included all the independent
variables while in the second model shows the result when one variable is removed.
In the first model independent variable explains 96.9% variation in the dependent
variable. While in the second model when one variable is removed; the independent
variable explains 96.1% variation in dependent variable.
Thus we can conclude that there is not much difference in explaining variation.
 ANOVAc

Sum of
Model Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 11.678 3 3.893 83.938 .000 a
Residual .371 8 4.638E-02
Total 12.049 11
2 Regression 11.576 2 5.788 110.104 .000 b
Residual .473 9 5.257E-02
Total 12.049 11
a. Predictors: (Constant), TEMP, PRICE, PROMOT
b. Predictors: (Constant), PRICE, PROMOT
c. Dependent Variable: TOURIST

In the first model, the p value is less than the assigned value of level of significance, so
the line is significant and valid.While in the second model even when one variable is
removed the p value is less than the assigned value of level of significance.

Coe fficie ntsa

Standardi
zed
Unstandardized Coefficien
Coefficients ts
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
1 (Constant) 9.019 2.912 3.097 .015
PRICE -.175 .044 -.630 -3.993 .004
PROMOT .289 .161 .309 1.793 .111
TEMP .150 .101 .116 1.484 .176
2 (Constant) 9.892 3.036 3.258 .010
PRICE -.160 .045 -.577 -3.525 .006
PROMOT .398 .153 .424 2.593 .029
a. Dependent Variable: TOURIST

So our regression line is as follows

Y=9.89-.160 X1+.398 X2

Where,
Y is the number of tourists.
X1 is the price of ticket.
X2 is the amount spent on promotion

Conclusion
• The curve of the distribution of tourists is normal peaked and positively skewed.
• The distribution for the price is negatively skewed and has a slightly higher peak.
• The distribution for promotion is low peaked and positively skewed.
• The distribution for temperature is highly peaked as well as positively skewed.
• The regression line t be fitted in this case is.

Y =9.89-.160 X1+.398 X2