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Afghanistan
Week 39 24 September 2013

Review

Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

Economic Development Governance & Rule of Law Security & Force Protection Social & Strategic Infrastructure

This document provides an overview of developments in Afghanistan from 10 - 23 September 2013, with hyperlinks to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For more information on the topics below, or other issues pertaining to events in Afghanistan, contact the members of the Afghanistan Team by visiting www.cimicweb.org/cmo/afg.

Highlighted Topics

Clicking the links in this list will take you to the appropriate section.

The collapse of a mine in Samangan province kills at least 28 miners. China undoes a multi-billion investment plan in Afghanistans mines. Pakistan releases Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a founder of the Taliban. Would-be presidential candidates begin to register for the presidential election race. Karzai: Not in a hurry to sign the bilateral security agreement with the US. Several voter registration centres are closed due to the lack of security. Management of natural resources will be a key issue on Afghanistans transition.
Russia offers funding and technical assistance for Pakistans energy sector.

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Economic Development

Jan Nalaskowski afghanistan@cimicweb.org

CFC publications are independently produced by Desk Officers and do not reflect NATO or ISAF policies or positions of any other organisation.
The CFC is part of NATO Allied Command Operations.

n 14 September, a coal mine collapsed in Samangan province, killing at least 28 miners, according to Global Post. Mohammad Sediq Azizi, Samangans provincial spokesman, said that the collapse was caused by a large gas explosion. The conditions in Afghan coal mines are dangerous, as miners usually work with obsolete equipment and lack proper ventilation, reports France24. Governor Khairullah Anwash concluded the accident was consequence of nonstandardised mining activities and, given the high revenues of the Afghan mining sector, the government should ensure adequate and standardised working conditions for miners. The governments inattention infuriated the National Union of Afghanistan Workers, as the accident revealed mistreatment of Afghan workers due to the absence of insurance culture in the country. In related mining news, China announced its willingness to undo the multi-billion dollar agreement to invest in Afghanistans mining industry, says Mining. The decision was taken due to the concerns about how the security situation will unfold after the withdrawal of international troops and the decline of the global demand of mineral products, particularly in developed countries. As the commodities cycle turns, prices drop, mining firms scale back on new projects, and Chinas economy slows, experts said that Afghanistan appears to have missed out on the resources boom for now, adds an article from South China Morning Post. The Afghanistan Banks Association (ABA) is trying to persuade the international banking community that banks in Afghanistan are progressive, transparent and ready for business, says Banking Technology. Ahmad Javed Wafa, the director of the ABA, says Afghanistan has a huge i nvestment potential, with construction, housing and industry playing major roles. It has one of the regions lowest corporate tax rates and, thanks to external investment, it now has a responsible, trustworthy banking industry. The main barrier to foreign investment is not the internal problems in the Afghan banking sector, but the lack of trust international investors place in Afghan banks. A further obstacle is the reluctance of Afghan citizens to deposit their money in the national banks. What we need to do is to persuade these customers that they can trust their banks and we are try-

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For further information, contact: Afghanistan Team Leader rainer.gonzalez@cimicweb.org The Afghanistan Team afghanistan@cimicweb.org

ing to offer incentives including excellent interest rates to make longer term savings more attractive. The more confidence banks can instil in their customers, the more confidence foreign banks and foreign investors will have, adds Wafa. In order to bolster the Afghan financial system the Afghanistan Central Bank recently auctioned USD 60 million conducted by Afghanistans Central Bank. According to Wadsam, all private banks, which have their guarantees deposited with the Central Banks Market Operations depar tment, were requested to participate in the auction. Auction-selling of dollars is implemented regularly in order to keep the exchange rate with the US dollar stable. According to an article by NBC News, the experiment to introduce private universities in Afghanistan as an alternative to public institutions, which are unable to meet the demand, has proven successful. As a result, seventy private institutions are already established, providing higher education to approximately 74,000 students. The chancellor and president of Kardan University, Roeen Rahmani, desires that his institution expand and that more rigorous academic standards will gradually be implemented. One of the most important benefits of developing domestic academic institutions is the chance for Afghan women to pursue higher education, something unconceivable under the Taliban government. In this regard, there is a concern amongst Afghan academics about a potential regression in the education sector after the international troops withdraw if the Taliban gain political power. In other education news, Afghan Minister of Finance Hazrat Omar Zakhilwal announced a grant of USD 1 million to Badakhshan University to establish two new faculties and send graduate students abroad. The World Bank will assist the Afghan cashmere sector in western Herat province by insuring the cashmere-scouring and disinfection facilities against the risk of transfer restriction, expropriation, war and civil disturbance, says the World Bulletin. The assistance is aimed to enhance the nascent cashmere industry and foreign investment in Afghanistan, since until now, the shortage of production facilities led this sector to stagnate. Given the large amounts of raw cashmere available, the investment potential is tremendous and will largely benefit the rural population. In other agriculture development news, Wadsam reports that the Afghan Agriculture Ministry has recently distributed 3,200 kg of saffron corms to farmers in Daikundi province. The spice has the potential to become a lucrative business for the farmers as it grows easily in dry environments and may be a feasible alternative to poppy cultivation. Moreover, this year, wheat production has declined by thirty per cent in Samangan province, mainly due to poor rainfall. Likewise, orchard farmers in Qarabagh district of Kabul have complained about their damaged orchards as a result of monsoon rains and sub-standard pesticides, notes Wadsam. A number of other articles related to economic development appeared over the past two weeks, including those below Afghan and Kyrgyz presidents, President Hamid Karzai and President Almazbek Atambayev, reached an agreement to increase trade ties by establishing road and rail infrastructure between the two countries, reports Daily Outlook Afghanistan. Both leaders also suggested a project of a railroad linking China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iran. According to Pajhwok Afghan News, prices of gas, sugar and Arabian gold fell but the cost of the Iranian variety gold of increased during the outgoing week in Kabul. The cost of diesel and petrol remained unchanged, whereas the cost liquefied gas dropped. Independent Media Consortium Productions has accused the Afghan private sector of misreporting export figures 79 per cent lower than the original price, says Wadsam. Traders allegedly kept their real earnings hidden in order to pay lower income taxes. In defence of exporters, deputy chief of the Afghan Chamber of Commerce and Industries said the government is plundering traders, not only when it comes to taxes but also corruption and bureaucracy.

Governance & Rule of Law

Katerina Oskarssonkaterina.oskarsson@cimicweb.org

akistan set free a former Taliban second-in-command and one of the founders of the Taliban, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, imprisoned in Karachi since 2010, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). The Afghan government welcomed Pakistans decision to release Baradar, who may help bring moderate Taliban leaders to the negotiation table. President Hamid Karzais spokesman stated, This release has occurred because of the Afghan governments consistent pressure requesting that Mullah Baradar be set free. Baradar is at the core of Afghan efforts to revive the stalled peace process, adds Reuters. Although Baradar has once before sought reconciliation with Kabul, critics contend that years in detention may have diminished his influence over the insurgency. The details of Baradars whereabouts following his release are unclear. While there have been speculations that he could be s ent to Turkey or Saudi Arabia, a Taliban source told AFP that he may remain in Karachi. Some observers doubt the release will facilitate a breakthrough in the peace process. Political analyst Talta Masood says that while the move was a sort of a confidence-building measure between Pakistan and Afghanistan [] this release is not likely to make any significant difference in the negotiating process, quotes AFP. Similarly, The Washington Post assesses the release says more about the newly elected Pakistani governments efforts to improve strained relations with Afghanistan than bolstering the peace process. Likewise, some Afghan officials also expressed doubt over the prospect of a breakthrough in the peace process with the Taliban, despite Pakistans recent release of 33 Taliban prisoners aimed at accelerating the process, reports Khaama Press. According to Zarawar Zahid, provincial police chief of Ghazni province, The Taliban who are releasedrejoin the battlefield again, further adding We put our lives in danger to arrest t hem, but the central government releases them under different pretences. Zahid told AFP that over forty insurgents recently released from Ghazni central prison on President Karzais order have re -joined the insurgency. In related news, the Pakistani Express Tribune reported the Afghan Taliban may not open a new political office to conduct peace negotiations following the closure of insurgents office in Qatars Doha in June. Instead, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the US are reportedly 24 September 2013 Page 2

finalising a new arrangement which would prevent a controversy similar to one surrounding the Dohas office which had been closed following the Afghan governments objections to the Taliban displaying a flag depicting the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Afghanistans official name under the Taliban rule. According to a Pakistani official, Under the new plan, discussions will probably take place in Saudi Arabia but without giving Afghan Taliban any formal office. Although the would-be presidential candidates can already register for the presidential election race to be held in April 2014, the majority of candidates are not expected to submit their nomination until closer to the 06 October deadline, reports Associated Press (AP). So far, only one presidential candidate, Bismillah Sher, the leader of the Wefaq Millie Party (WMP), completed the nomination process with the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC), highlights Tolo News. As a part of the registration process, nominees are obligated to pay a fee of AFG 1 million (USD 18,000) and prove that they have the support of at least 100,000 people. While currently there are no clear forerunners, some speculations point to Zalmai Rassoul, current Afghan foreign minister and former national security adviser, who may become a joint candidate among some of the political factions, writes AP. Other potential candidates include: Abdullah Abdullah, an opposition leader and Karzais contender in the 2009 election; Ashraf Ghani, an academic and former finance minister; Hanif Atmar, a former interior minister and a critic of Karzai; Farooq Wardak, the education minister; and, Abdul Rab Rasoul Sayyaf, a lawmaker and a former jihadist alleged to maintain ties with Arab militants in the past. According to Tolo News, the IEC will release the final list of presidential candidates on 16 October. An unpublished UN report circulated among senior Afghan officials indicates that Afghan female police officers, who constitute less than one per cent of Afghanistans roughly 155,000-strong police force, are victims of extensive sexual violence and harassment by their male colleagues, reports The New York Times. Approximately ninety per cent of the interviewed female officers reported that sexual abuse has been a serious issue within the Afghan police, while seventy per cent indicated that they had personally experienced sexual violence or harassment. Ghulam Mujtaba Patang, a former Afghan Interior Minister, expressed doubts about the re ports findings, and countered by saying that when his team of investigators met with female police officers, none reported such mistreatment. According to Patang, If an Afghan policewoman is being raped or sexually harassed, they would report that they wouldnt keep it secret. He added the reason they told these things to the [UN] and did not mention it to my inquiry was that these were mai nly illiterate women who thought they might gain more attention and support by making these claims. However, womens rights advocates note that these women, often the sole family breadwinners, fear being stigmatised, demoted or even jailed, and therefore are discouraged from reporting abuse at the hands of their colleagues. Despite the Afghan Interior Ministrys doubts about the conclusions drawn in the report, ministry officials said they were working improve the conditions for female officers. In related news, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, expressed concerns over waning government support for Afghan human rights as demonstrated by an increase in civilian casualties in the first half of 2013, recurring attacks on women, and the appointment of conservatives to the Afghan independent human rights office, reports Reuters. During her first official visit to Afghanistan, Pillay urged the Afghan government to ensure that the human rights gains of the past 12 years are not sacrificed to p olitical expediency during these last few months before the election. Some Western officials and Afghan human rights activists e xpress concern over what they perceive as the governments increasing willingness to accommodate Afghanistans conservative elite at the expense of the human rights. Pillay, for instance, questioned President Karzais June appointment of conservative members , including a former Taliban member, to the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC), asserting that the selection has derailed the panels independence. Lastly, over 4,000 instances of assault against women and girls were reported to Afghanistans Ministry of Womens Affairs in 2010-2012, adds Pillay. A number of other articles related to governance and rule of law appeared over the past two weeks, including those below: A former Afghan parliamentarian and district governor, Qazi Abdul Hai has re-joined the Taliban, reports The Express Tribune. Hai stated I am sure the Americans will be forced out soon and the Islamic Emirate will rule Afghanistan. According to Mohammad Alam Ezedyar, the Afghan upper house deputy speaker, Hai defected to the Taliban following his visit of Pakistan some four months ago. Ezedyar further noted that Hais decision may have been driven by concerns for his safety as the country ha s seen a targeted Taliban campaign assassinating government officials. A number of Afghan journalists staged a protest in front of the National Assembly, demanding the enactment of the Right to Information Law, which stipulates the publics rights regarding access to information about the government, reports Tolo News. Protesters accused the government of postponing the laws approval in an effort to conceal the governments wrongdoings. A pre-election survey conducted in five provinces revealed that 79 per cent of respondents plan to cast their vote in the 2014 presidential elections, highlights Tolo News. Only six per cent were in a favour of a religious leader ruling Afghanistan and reestablishing an Islamic Emirate.

Security & Force Protection

Eray Basar eray.basar@cimicweb.org

ne day after President Obamas special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan James Dobbins expressed optimism about reaching a security agreement with Afghanistan in October, President Hamid Karzai said he is in no hurry to sign such an agreement with the United States, reports Washington Times. The deal has been negotiated by the two countries since October 2012 and, if sealed, will grant the US a legal basis for keeping some of its troops and leasing bases in the country. President Karzai never publicly disclosed the details of the Afghan conditions; however, according to Washington Times, these demands include Af-

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ghan border security against foreign intervention. Us officials are reportedly reluctant to accept demands which may position the United States against Afghanistans neighbours, such as Pakistan. Contrary to US expectations to finalise the deal by October, President Karzai said [t]he Americans wanted this security agreement in March or April, and now they are trying to bring it in October . But we want to do well, not to hurry; they are in a rush, not us. We are very relaxed . He added that if the United States fails to meet their conditions, the agreement can be reached with his successor after the 05 April 2014 elections. In a related note, President Karzai said the instability and terrorism in Afghanistan is originated outside the country, reports Khaama Press. Without specifying the entity to which he is referring, Karzai said: We have an appropriate analysis of the current situation of Afghanistan, and we know who are involved behind plotting destruction of Afghanistan, and those who are sending suicide bombers to Afghanistan. He also highl ighted the role of the US in the countrys security situation and reiterated that peace and stability is a key pr econdition for the USAfghanistan security agreement. Approximately seventy voter registration centres were closed in the southern border province of Paktika due to security concerns, reports Pajhwok Afghan News. Independent Election Commission (IEC) chief of Paktika, Amir Hamza Ahmadzai, said the list of registration centres was provided to the appropriate security bodies several months ago, but authorities were not able to provide security. Ahmadzai also added that the closing of these centres could deprive people of their right to vote and, thus reduce the credibility of the elections. According to Pajhwok, tribal elders claimed that only one registration centre per district was established in the province; they demanded that the IEC open additional centres and requested stricter security measures around the polling stations. In related news, five IEC employees were kidnapped by unidentified gunmen in Faryab province, reports Tolo News. IEC spokesman Noor Muhammad Noor warned the Afghan government that its failure to provide security and safety to IEC employees would jeopardise the efficiency and transparency of the elections. Noor said We want safety of the IEC e mployees, elections materials, voters, voters registration centers employees, and all the journalists who cover the elections. The kidnapping marked the second incident targeting the elections after the recent killing of the Kunduz province IEC chief Amanullah Aman by the Taliban. India reassured that it will continue to support Afghanistan during and after the transition as international forces withdraw from the country, reports Time. Referring to the Talibans recent killing of the Indian author Sushmita Banerjee, Indias Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Manjeev Singh Puri said India does not have an exit policy in Afghanistan and will not be deterred by such attacks. Meanwhile, Iranian president Hassan Rouhani met with President Karzai in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, reports Press TV. Rouhani pledged to spare no effort for the establishment of peace and security in Afghanistan. However, he also said that the presence of the foreign forces in Afghanistan and other countries in the region leads to the rise of extremism. Finally, President Karzai also met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during the SCO summit and asked for the technical support of Moscow in military and security issues, reports Khaama Press. In response, President Putin vowed to provide Afghanistan with the necessary military equipment and weaponry in addition to training opportunities for the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Citing a Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) report, Stars and Stripes informs that the construction projects currently underway for the ANSF (worth approximately USD 4.7 billion) will exceed their needs once the Afghan forces reduce in size. Afghan and international stakeholders envision reducing the forces to 228,500, but this number is preliminary and subject to change. The SIGAR report stated, [c]urrent construction requirements reflect the cur rently approved 352,000 ANSF personnel level and do not take into account planned reductions in the number of ANSF personnel. As a result, when the ANSF decreases to 228,500 personnel, ANSF facilities will have excess personnel capacity. As a consequence, international military planners are revising the construction plans. The US Department of Defense said three troops were killed in Afghanistan in a green-on-blue attack, reports Huffington Post. The troops were shot on 21 September in an Afghan army base in the city of Gardez in Paktika province by an Afghan dressed in a security forces uniform. With this latest incident, the number of US troops killed in such attacks rose to eleven in 2013. Also, the US consulate in Herat came under insurgent attack on 12 September, informs Washington Post. The incident, which was claimed by the Taliban, left an undisclosed number of Afghan security personnel killed along with all seven assailants. No Americans were harmed during the incident, which was brought under control after approximately two hours of clashes.

Social & Strategic Infrastructure

Rainer Gonzalezrainer.gonzalez@cimicweb.org

hamin Niazi, a researcher of the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP), writes in New Security Beat about the potential for mismanagement of Afghanistans national resources to jeopardise the countrys stabilisation process. According to Niazi, a recent report by the UNEP concluded that scarce land and natural resources are often sources of coercion, influence, illicit revenues and grievances against the government. One of the main problems is the scarcity of land available for internally displaced persons and returnees, particularly in the fast-growing urban areas. The continuing uncertainty over land rights due to lack of land titles has prevented development in many areas. Also, prices have skyrocketed due to land scarcity, which has exacerbated competition, corruption and conflicts over land. Although the international community has done little to resolve land conflicts, Afghans are concerned that the issue may worsen with the withdrawal of troops in 2014. Niazi also highlights that, even though the countrys geography produces large amounts of fresh water, the lack of infrastructure to store it hampers development. Given that Afghanistan has been subject to regional pressures to halt large infrastructure projects designed to boost development, Afghans are concerned that the withdrawal of troops could weaken the regional influence of the country to overcome these pressures. Similarly, poverty, instability, 24 September 2013 Page 4

lack of law enforcement and competition over wood for fuel have driven rapid deforestation, not only accelerating erosion and damaging landscape, but also raising tension between different communities. Forested areas are an important source of income-generating opportunities, building materials, firewood and forest products. Niazi concludes that f or effective peace building in Afghanistan effective and transparent natural resource management must be part of the solution and should be considered an opportunity rather than a burden, adding that In a poor country like Afghanistan, natural resources provide a large proportion of the wealth and can provide a foundation for sustainable development if their value is recognized and respected. Hence, Niazi highlights it is important that the government implements inter- and intra-organisational coordination between its own agencies with donors to help achieve these goals. A high-level Russian delegation, led by the deputy minister of energy Yury Sentyurin, visited Pakistan to offer cooperation in the field of energy including the import of electricity and liquefied natural gas as well as the development of coal power production plants and the exploration of oil and gas fields, reports The International News. The Pakistan Minister of Planning, Development and Reforms Ahsan Iqbal highlighted the importance of strategic regional position for Russian investors in Pakistan, which offers access to wide markets in South Asia, China and Central Asia. Iqbal added there is a lot of potential between both the countries for cooperation. We have not yet tapped even 10 percent of what we can. We welcome Russian investment in our energy sector. We have good memories of cooperation in the past like the construction of the Pakistan Steel. Russian investors offered to modernise some of the existing thermal plants to shift them into coal-fired technologies. They also expressed interest to invest in Gaddani Power Park. Russia is building hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and offered Pakistan to export 1,000 MW year-round, which would subsequently be increased to 5,000MW from these countries via Afghanistan. Likewise, Russia is eager to assist Pakistan in building its section of the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline by providing financial and technical support, writes Platts. Reportedly, the Russian state-owned Gazprom will make formal contact with the Pakistani government in the near term to expedite an agreement. Although Pakistan had requested an additional USD 1 billion from the Iranian government for the pipeline (Iran has already agreed on lending USD 500 million to Pakistan), the sanctions on Iran have prompted the Pakistani government to assess the viability of the project. So far, an official source said that Pakistans procurement of gas from Iran should not be a problem as other countries such as Turkey or Armenia are also buying Iranian gas. Pakistan has also requested Iran to reduce the interest rate on the USD 500 million loan to build the IP pipeline, as the financial cost is higher than the commercial rates offered by banks even though Pakistan provides sovereign guarantees for the loan, according to Tehran Times. Sentyurin also indicated that Russia is interested in participating in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project. A number of other social and strategic infrastructure issues emerged this past week, including those summarised below. The Kabul-Herat highway, part of the Ring Road, needs major repairs, reports Wadsam. Some experts accuse the Ministry of Public Works of failing to maintain the highway, which was upgraded six years ago. Most of our highways face the same problem. This is an important highway, and if immediate measures are not taken, the government will not be able to reconstruct the highway, said Nazir Ahmad Nejabi, a professor at the Kab ul Polytechnic University. The state-owned electricity company, Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS) and FEKA, a Turkey-based private construction company, have signed an agreement for the design, supply, installation, testing and commissioning of Kabul South West Distribution Project, writes Pajhwok Afghan News. The project will provide electricity to more than 40,000 families and small businesses in southwest of Kabul. The line will stretch 145 km with power generated via 165 transformers at a cost of USD 48 million, partially funded by the DABS and the Asian Development Bank. Safi Airways will commence three weekly flights linking Kabul and Islamabad effective 01 October, while Emirates also announced that from December 2013, the airline will be flying the Kabul-Dubai route with a daily frequency, reports Pajhwok.

Recent Readings & Resources

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Strengthening the capacity of Afghanistan national police force and law enforcement bodies to combat violence against women and girls in Afghanistan, UN Population Fund, September 2013. Afghanistan Price Bulletin September 2013, FEWS Net, September 2013. Press Conference by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, UNHCR, September 2013. Ending Child Marriage and Domestic Violence, HRW, September 2013. Afghanistan Humanitarian Bulletin Issue 19 | 01 30 August 2013, UNOCHA, August 2013.

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ENGAGE WITH US 24 September 2013

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