Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Melbourne, FL.

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October 11, 2013 Big rebound with the Nasdaq just above its semiannual pivot at 3759.

The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year yield is rising towards its 50-day SMA at 2.746%. The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond rose to its 50-day SMA at 3.764%. The weekly chart shows that the 10Year yield is on the cusp of its five-week MMA at 2.701% with its 200-week SMA at 2.523%. The weekly chart shows that the 30-year yield is above its five-week MMA at 3.729% with its 200-week SMA at 3.634%. 10-Year Note (2.692) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 2.960 and 3.227 with a daily pivot at 2.682, and monthly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 2.603, 2.476, 1.981 and 1.719. Comex gold remains below its 50-day SMA at $1343.2 the Troy ounce with the 200-day SMA at $1453.2. The weekly chart stays negative with the five-week MMA at $1329.2 with the 200-week SMA at $1476.2. Crude oil remains below its 50-day SMA at $104.28 with the 200-day SMA at $98.26 with a positive divergence in momentum on the daily chart. The weekly chart remains negative with the five-week MMA at $104.85 and the 200-week SMA at $91.26. The euro vs. the dollar is above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1.3377 and 1.3187 with the February high at $1.3709 on a daily chart that shows a negative divergence in momentum. The weekly chart profile remains positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 1.3413 and the 200-week SMA at 1.3334. Comex Gold ($1288.0) Daily and monthly value levels are $1283.6 and $1145.2 with weekly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1389.9, $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($102.94) My monthly value level is $99.84 with daily, weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $103.51, $106.24, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23. The Euro (1.3524) Annual, quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2782, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with a weekly pivot at 1.3443 and daily and annual risky levels at 1.3585 and 1.4295. The key on the daily charts for the major equity averages is that Dow Industrial Average held its 200day SMA at 14,737.60 on Wednesday, but the Dow is below its 50-day SMA at 15,192.85. The S&P 500 traded back above its 50-day SMA at 1678.29 with the 200-day at 1600.69. The Nasdaq gapped back above its 50-day SMA at 3696.24. The Dow Transportation Average moved back above its 50day SMA at 6505.69. The Russell 2000 gapped back above its 50-day SMA at 1050.45.

The weekly chart for Dow Industrials stays negative with a close this week below its five-week MMA at 15,166.79. The weekly chart for the S&P 500 shifts to negative on a close this week below the fiveweek MMA at 1680.58. The weekly chart for the Nasdaq stays positive but overbought with a close this week above its five-week MMA at 3715.50 as momentum remains well above 80.00 at 90.60. The weekly chart for Dow Transports shifts to negative on a close this week below the five-week MMA at 6533.86. The weekly chart for the Russell 2000 stays positive but overbought on a close this week above its five-week MMA at 1055.65 as momentum remains above 80.00 and 84.63. Odds are that cycle highs will not be confirmed at todays closes. My weekly pivots became magnets at 14,809 Dow Industrials, 1658.8 S&P 500, 6522 Dow Transports and 1053.91 Russell 2000. The Nasdaq ended the day between semiannual and weekly pivots at 3759 and 3763. My semiannual pivot is 3759 on the Nasdaq with monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 15,932, 16,490 and 16,775 Dow Industrials, 1746.4, 1743.5 and 1853.8 S&P 500, 3830 and 4025 Nasdaq, 6811, 7104 and 7205 Dow Transports and 1092.46, 1089.42 and 1163.21 Russell 2000. My annual value levels remain at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000. Daily Dow: (15,126) Daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 14,906, 14809, 14,707, 14,724 and 12,696 with the Sept. 18 all time high at 15,709.59, and monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 15,932, 16,490 and 16,775. S&P 500 (1689.6) Daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1679.0, 1658.8, 1606.9, 1400.7 with the Sept. 19 all time high at 1729.86, and semiannual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1743.5, 1746.4 and 1853.8. NASDAQ (3761) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3668 and 2806 with daily, weekly and semiannual pivots at 3757, 3763 and 3759, the Oct. 1 multi-year high at 3817.98, and monthly and quarterly risky level at 3830 and 4025. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (3211) My annual value level is 2463 with daily and weekly risky levels at 3203 and 3220, the Oct. 1 multi-year high at 3254.33, and monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 3254, 3304 and 3477. Dow Transports (6611) Daily, weekly and annual value levels are 6566, 6522, 5925 and 5469 with the Sept. 20 all time high at 6754.81, and monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 6811, 7104 and 7205. Russell 2000 (1067.89) Daily, weekly and annual value levels are 1061.85, 1053.91, 860.25 and 809.54 with the Oct. 1 all time high at 1087.78, and semiannual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1089.42, 1092.46 and 1163.21. The SOX (496.48) Weekly and annual value levels are 489.73 and 338.03 with a daily pivot at 496.36, the Sept. 19 high at 500.24, and monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky level at 512.13, 514.87 and 533.56. Dow Utilities: (489.72) Daily and weekly value levels are 484.22 and 457.02 with monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 512.80, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37. To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.