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CASE: NGHE AN TATE & LYLE SUGAR COMPANY [VIETNAM]

CALCULATION OF ECONOMIC RATE OF RETURN - WORKSHEET

Sl no

DESCRIPTION
1 Nominal free cash flow x 1000

1996-98
-57939

1999
-15258

2000
5337

64
1280
1564

400
8000
9778

750
15000
18333

-614
-1010
396

-2825
-5474
2649

-853
-6636
5783

*
*

0
0
0
0

853
85
17.913
17.913

5333
533
111.993
111.993

*
*
*

0
30%
0
0

300
30%
6.6
594

314
30%
41.2
3881.04

1500

750

750

CASE EXH /
PAGE NO
Exh 8/Page 17

cane crushed (x1000 tons)


Land required for cultivation
Number of farmers
2
2.1
2.2
2.3

Net return to farmers


From cane
From cash crop [avg]
Total benefit from cane

3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4

Net return to truckers


Cost for cane
Paid to truckers
Profit margin
Total return to truckers

4 ADD BACK Profit taxes


5
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4

Net loss from tariff


World sugar price
Tariff rate
Sugar production [tons] x 1000
Total net loss from tariffs

6 Net return to labor

0
0
0

Exh 9/Page 18
Exh 9/Page 18

7 Total nominal social cash flow


7.1 Deflator
7.2 Total real social cash flow
ERR (Real)
ERR (Nominal)
IRR (Nominal)

All figures are in USD

-56043 -12435.09 8100.953


1 0.970874 0.942596
-56043 -12072.9 7635.925
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

All figures are in USD

Conversion rate

15000 Dong/USD
6.66667E-005 USD/Dong
7
8
9

2001
13466

2002
18688

2003
22282

2004
24189

2005
25938

850
17000
20778

900
18000
22000

900
18000
22000

900
18000
22000

3740
-3946
7686

4599
-3427
8026

4341
-303
4644

10000
1000
210
210

11333
1133
237.993
237.993

331
30%
77.3
7675.89
750

10

11

12

2006
20178

2007
20514

2008
20811

2009
21111

900
18000
22000

900
18000
22000

900
18000
22000

900
18000
22000

900
18000
22000

4611
2285
2326

5911
912
4999

6201
1149
5052

5696
4232
1464

6007
3161
2846

7349
709
6640

12000
1200
252
252

12360
1236
259.56
259.56

12731
1273
267.351
267.351

13113
1311
275.373
275.373

13506
1351
283.626
283.626

13911
1391
292.131
292.131

14329
1433
300.909
300.909

6189

6533

6741

6813

348
366
385
30%
30%
30%
87.6
92.7
92.7
9145.44 10178.46 10706.85
750

750

750

405
417
426
435
444
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
92.7
92.7
92.7
92.7
92.7
11263.05 11596.77 11847.06 12097.35 12347.64
750

750

750

750

750

14436.11 18556.55 17749.54 16817.71


20691.301 20847.6 17697.57 19342.78 23267.27
0.915142 0.888487 0.862609 0.837484 0.8130915113 0.789409 0.766417 0.744094 0.722421
13211.09 16487.26 15310.91 14084.57 16823.921202 16457.29 13563.71 14392.85 16808.77

13

14

15

16

17

18

2010
21412

2011
21391

2012
21198

2013
20972

2014
20731

2015
216133

900
18000
22000

900
18000
22000

900
18000
22000

900
18000
22000

900
18000
22000

900
18000
22000

7682
272
7410

7222
-1837
9059

7578
90
7488

8968
4898
4070

9249
3948
5301

8939
4288
4651

14758
1476
309.918
309.918

15201
1520
319.221
319.221

15617
1562
327.957
327.957

16127
1613
338.667
338.667

16611
1661
348.831
348.831

17109
1711
359.289
359.289

6884

6828

6726

6618

6504

7211

454
459
463
468
472
476
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
92.7
92.7
92.7
92.7
92.7
92.7
12625.74 12764.79 12876.03 13015.08 13126.32 13237.56
750

750

750

750

750

750

24140.18 25582.43 23613.93 19733.59 20508.51 215866.7


0.70138 0.680951 0.661118 0.641862 0.623167 0.605016 0.587395
16931.44 17420.39 15611.59 12666.24 12780.23 130602.9

Year-round workers
Additional in crushing season

500
200

Sugarcane
Year 0

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Revenue
Tonnes per hectare
Price per ton
Total revenue

0
0
0

50
200
10000

50
200
10000

50
200
10000

3000
1300
1700
1200
0
7200

3000
1300
0
0
1000
5300

3000
1300
0
0
1000
5300

3000
1300
0
0
1000
5300

Costs
Labour
Fertilizer
Seeds
Land prep
Crane
Total cost

in 1000 Dongs per hectare


Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Cost
7200
4300
4300
4300
Revenue
10000
10000
10000
Returns
-7200
5700
5700
5700
Average return
2475
Alternative method
Crop life cycle
Years to revenue
Cost in plantation
Cost in typical year
Revenue in typical year
Total Return
Average return

Sugar
4
1

Pineapple Coffee
Rubber
P&M
3
10
28
1
4
8

7200
11400
13125
11000
4300
5925
11175
5925
10000
14125
18000
10000
2475 1666.667
2782.5 2517.857
1102432 dong/hectare
73.49546 USD/hectare

P&P
1
0

1
0

8800

9200

6800
-2000

9600
400

P&R
1
0
9300
9175
-125

Exchange rate

15000 Dong/USD

Revenue assumptions:
Average travel distance
Cost to deliver (Dong/ton)
Tons per load
Average trips per day
No. of days
Total tons hauled by each trucker
No. of truckers
Revenue by each trucker
Total revenue by all truckers
Cost assumptions
Gasoline
Lory: Kilometres per gallon
Fuel: USD per gallon
Labour
Average wage per day
Maintennce per season
Lorry cost
Average cost per lorry
Annual interest rate
Depreciation per kilometre
Gasoline cost per trip
Gasoline cost per day per trucker
No. of days
No. of truckers

20 km
23000 Dong
5.5 tons
3.5
150
2887.5
300
66412500 Dong
19923750000 Dong
1328250 USD

12
1.2 USD/gallon
30000 Dong
10000000 Dong
100000000 Dong
12%
625 Dong

160000

2.0 USD/trip/trucker
7
150
300

Depreciation of each truck per year


Total gasoline cost
Total wages
Maintenance annual cost
Total cost

6562500
315000
4500000
10000000
4746062500
316404.1667

Dong
USD
Dong

Return

1011845.833 USD

Dong
USD