Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
14 October 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued ....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Over
Valued ......................................................................6
Automobiles & Parts
Over Valued .........................................................................................6
Banks
Under Valued ...................................................................................6
Beverages
Under Valued ..................................................................................7
Chemicals
Under Valued ......................................7
Construction - Building Materials & Fittings
Construction - Heavy Construction
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Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
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14 October 2013
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Page 4 of 17
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVON RUBBER
543.50
305.25
550.50
Neutral
Sell
488
0.86
BAE SYSTEMS
436.30
300.80
468.00
Neutral
Buy
591
0.66
CHEMRING GROUP
220.00
217.00
353.30
Buy
Buy
314
0.65
COBHAM
280.30
190.10
307.70
Neutral
Neutral
281
0.76
MEGGITT
541.00
366.20
564.00
Neutral
Sell
493
1.24
QINETIQ GROUP
190.40
179.00
211.10
Neutral
Sell
117
0.63
1120.00
835.76
1240.00
Neutral
Buy
1473
0.95
256.70
185.90
288.40
Neutral
Neutral
261
1.63
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
SENIOR
Target
Beta
SMITHS GROUP
1379.00
1018.00
1419.00
Neutral
Sell
1162
0.70
1846.00
1505.00
1981.00
Neutral
Sell
1640
0.49
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
GKN
362.30
201.00
362.30
Neutral
Sell
-1778
1.98
INCHCAPE
618.00
356.50
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2912
1.35
LOOKERS
121.75
71.50
128.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
655
1.17
PENDRAGON
34.50
13.50
35.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
258
0.96
TOROTRAK
27.00
23.50
35.50
Neutral
Sell
12
0.68
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARCLAYS
278.00
210.15
308.39
Neutral
Sell
Target
-644
Beta
2.12
689.60
595.30
769.90
Neutral
Buy
833
1.35
1.90
76.02
39.70
78.00
Neutral
Sell
376.90
266.10
384.90
Neutral
Sell
-91
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1487.50
1395.00
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3325
1.79
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARR (AG)
520.50
432.20
588.50
Neutral
Sell
415
0.52
BRITVIC
575.50
349.10
592.00
Neutral
Buy
804
0.67
DIAGEO
1973.00
1746.50
2136.50
Sell
Buy
2272
0.52
SABMILLER
3014.00
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4955
0.92
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Target
Beta
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Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ALENT
338.20
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3638
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
293.10
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
530
1.11
CARCLO
388.75
342.75
501.00
Neutral
Sell
124
0.73
2477.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3113
1.06
238.70
204.20
275.00
Neutral
Buy
288
1.01
1.41
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2821.00
2190.00
2985.00
Neutral
Buy
3905
VICTREX
1598.00
1380.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1286
1.17
SYNTHOMER
238.10
146.00
249.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
366
1.05
ZOTEFOAMS
191.50
186.50
225.00
Neutral
Buy
281
1.01
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
126.50
79.50
137.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
446
1502.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
1042
0.97
75.50
50.00
80.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
552
1.11
MARSHALLS
180.00
85.00
184.00
Neutral
Neutral
176
1.37
NORCROS
19.88
11.75
21.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
221
1.02
186.70
102.00
193.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
975
1.61
44.00
22.00
45.50
Neutral
Sell
39
0.91
1678.00
1060.00
1713.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
15245
1.93
211.00
143.13
240.00
Neutral
Neutral
221
1.01
3169.00
2636.64
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
10266
1.32
ALUMASC GROUP
CRH
LOW & BONAR
SIG
TITON HOLDINGS
TRAVIS PERKINS
TYMAN
WOLSELEY
Target
0.54
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BALFOUR BEATTY
268.50
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1064
0.68
BOOT (HENRY)
183.00
123.50
201.00
Neutral
Sell
112
0.71
CARILLION
303.50
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Buy
365
0.98
CLARKE (T)
65.75
40.00
68.50
Neutral
Buy
84
0.68
COSTAIN GROUP
Target
Beta
262.50
226.25
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
410
0.50
GALLIFORD TRY
1098.00
678.00
1098.00
Neutral
Sell
718
0.76
KELLER
1010.00
560.50
1161.00
Neutral
Sell
528
1.25
KIER GROUP
1740.00
1106.00
1740.00
Neutral
Sell
1582
0.82
817.00
508.00
819.00
Neutral
Buy
981
0.60
117.50
95.00
147.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
261
#NA
33.50
20.00
34.00
Sell
Sell
-11
0.45
POCHIN'S
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
331.80
177.00
355.20
Neutral
Buy
371
1.60
BELLWAY
1355.00
934.50
1502.00
Neutral
Buy
1924
0.93
2232.00
1420.00
2340.00
Neutral
Neutral
2134
0.47
767.00
489.30
851.50
Neutral
Buy
969
1.05
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
Target
Beta
346.00
220.00
360.00
Neutral
Sell
276
#NA
340.00
141.50
354.75
Neutral
Sell
193
0.49
1197.00
689.95
1305.00
Sell
Sell
1080
1.06
REDROW
248.00
152.90
255.10
Neutral
Neutral
258
0.84
TAYLOR WIMPEY
109.00
56.65
113.80
Neutral
Buy
125
1.45
PERSIMMON
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1185.00
999.50
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
1063
0.63
659.50
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
892
0.99
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
142.00
105.50
148.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
290
1.29
INVENSYS
503.00
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
294
1.33
LAIRD
221.80
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
451
1.99
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1384.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1163
1.22
RENISHAW
1729.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2090
1.31
SPECTRIS
2234.00
1549.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2852
1.48
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
187.50
65.00
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-433
0.70
TT ELECTRONICS
192.50
114.00
200.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
440
1.64
XAAR
795.50
247.50
898.00
Neutral
Sell
423
1.00
DIALIGHT
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
130.50
54.38
130.50
Sell
Buy
147
1.06
BODYCOTE
653.00
345.10
685.00
Neutral
Neutral
646
1.51
CASTINGS
418.50
291.00
450.00
Neutral
Buy
574
0.93
VESUVIUS
460.10
263.19
487.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1197
2.20
FENNER
398.30
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Buy
571
1.44
HALMA
536.00
410.40
578.00
Neutral
Sell
417
0.84
452.25
364.00
480.00
Neutral
Buy
555
1.25
1488.00
902.00
1513.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4298
1.31
298.30
220.30
318.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
500
1.82
2782.00
2229.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2621
0.97
60.13
35.40
76.91
Neutral
Sell
51
0.76
SPIRAX-SARCO
2911.00
1932.53
3090.00
Neutral
Sell
1813
0.69
VITEC GROUP
683.00
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
486
1.33
WEIR GROUP
2313.00
1688.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2257
1.31
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
436.70
392.10
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
805
0.40
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
275.60
248.60
302.50
Buy
Buy
380
0.35
SAINSBURY (J)
388.50
321.90
400.80
Neutral
Buy
457
0.58
TESCO
357.90
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
193
0.74
THORNTONS
103.25
28.63
103.25
Neutral
Sell
64
0.83
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1911.00
1326.00
2031.00
Neutral
Sell
1618
0.57
CRANSWICK
1066.00
733.00
1189.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1727
0.35
DAIRY CREST
477.50
342.90
528.50
Neutral
Sell
394
0.83
DEVRO
305.00
289.90
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
484
0.37
PREMIER FOODS
158.00
59.75
166.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
251
1.22
753.50
692.50
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1287
0.62
2376.00
2262.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2059
0.57
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
25.25
24.00
29.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
44
0.65
502.00
267.00
577.00
Neutral
Neutral
515
0.56
1605.00
1125.00
1667.00
Neutral
Sell
1238
1.28
663.50
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
252
0.85
1.53
Target
Beta
46.28
20.36
47.67
Neutral
Neutral
45
236.25
108.00
253.75
Neutral
Sell
148
0.90
30.38
23.00
34.00
Sell
Sell
12
1.09
0.68
381.10
299.00
406.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
588
1098.00
670.00
1098.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2063
0.59
74.50
39.00
88.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
123
1.10
KINGFISHER
370.20
268.50
420.00
Neutral
Buy
548
0.98
477.70
359.00
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
741
0.50
69.75
53.50
74.88
Neutral
Buy
86
0.78
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
386.50
221.25
492.75
Neutral
Sell
135
0.28
NEXT
MOTHERCARE
5040.00
3542.00
5205.00
Neutral
Neutral
5275
0.63
TED BAKER
1696.00
920.00
2017.00
Neutral
Sell
1036
0.60
85.00
47.00
94.00
Neutral
Sell
80
1.55
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
151.50
130.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
121
0.45
CONSORT MEDICAL
899.00
660.50
899.00
Sell
Sell
689
0.37
OPTOS
154.75
106.75
215.25
Neutral
Buy
176
1.09
771.50
638.00
800.00
Neutral
Sell
669
0.33
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
780.00
601.00
823.50
Neutral
Neutral
756
HEADLAM GROUP
382.75
302.50
415.00
Neutral
Buy
446
0.75
78.75
55.25
87.50
Neutral
Sell
48
0.70
HORNBY
Target
0.29
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
984.00
577.50
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
435
CSR
500.50
330.90
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1493
1.06
66.25
30.75
83.25
Neutral
Buy
73
1.00
FILTRONIC
Target
Beta
0.63
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
275.80
235.10
552.00
Neutral
Sell
221
1.09
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
128.10
118.00
169.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
394
0.88
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
153.75
140.00
226.25
Neutral
Sell
-33
0.95
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1226.00
1019.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-485
0.58
AMLIN
406.50
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1544
0.47
BEAZLEY
209.40
167.30
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
957
0.61
CATLIN GROUP
486.90
455.30
552.50
Neutral
Neutral
477
0.29
HISCOX
664.50
463.32
670.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1915
0.43
949.50
723.00
949.50
Neutral
Buy
1218
0.28
118.90
107.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
735
0.36
NOVAE GROUP
497.50
345.00
520.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3463
0.39
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
2058.00
2030.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
3303
Beta
0.96
150.20
63.75
153.80
Neutral
Sell
97
1.51
TUI TRAVEL
369.60
246.40
401.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
691
1.06
870.50
726.00
969.00
Neutral
Sell
571
0.24
GREENE KING
800.00
587.00
897.50
Neutral
Sell
584
0.87
LADBROKES
190.70
167.40
243.10
Neutral
Buy
249
0.85
1815.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1612
1.10
573.50
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
557
1.33
396.00
296.00
460.00
Neutral
Sell
255
0.89
122.00
101.30
156.00
Neutral
Sell
59
1.28
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
PUNCH TAVERNS
14.75
6.15
15.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
66
0.98
RANK GROUP
162.00
137.30
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
549
1.01
RESTAURANT GROUP
548.50
364.00
575.00
Neutral
Sell
372
0.66
WETHERSPOON (JD)
714.50
491.80
767.00
Neutral
Sell
655
0.55
WHITBREAD
3210.00
2300.00
3303.00
Neutral
Sell
2076
1.05
WILLIAM HILL
412.20
302.37
494.50
Neutral
Sell
347
0.79
MARSTON'S
146.70
117.70
165.50
Neutral
Sell
10
1.08
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
426.60
294.10
428.20
Neutral
Sell
390
1.23
CHESNARA
291.00
176.50
291.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
549
0.62
195.90
132.40
203.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
514
1.82
OLD MUTUAL
190.40
166.10
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
404
1.54
PRUDENTIAL
1178.00
834.50
1232.00
Neutral
Neutral
1215
1.82
620.00
374.90
641.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6853
0.88
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
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17
Target
Beta
14 October 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 10 of
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
169.00
102.00
169.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
873.00
709.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.42
51.00
31.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.00
1.04
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
Target
Beta
0.39
754.50
451.25
835.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3556
1060.00
747.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5566
0.87
INFORMA
518.00
380.50
545.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.51
ITE GROUP
282.10
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Buy
201
1.38
ITV
183.90
85.65
184.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.54
13.25
9.88
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1.11
0.60
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
1292.00
1119.00
1350.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
PHOTO-ME INTL.
116.50
47.25
116.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.81
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
297.50
269.00
299.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.06
THOMSON REUTERS
35.94
26.85
36.59
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.39
STV GROUP
266.50
92.50
266.50
Neutral
Sell
240
0.86
ST.IVES
171.25
98.50
180.50
Neutral
Sell
159
1.34
TRINITY MIRROR
122.25
51.25
128.25
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.53
1.33
UBM
716.50
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
WILMINGTON GROUP
218.50
127.75
218.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.83
1238.00
788.00
1296.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.25
WPP
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
GLENCORE XSTRATA
LONMIN
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1512.00
1207.00
2072.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
1241
Beta
1.74
193.00
161.00
289.00
Neutral
Neutral
201
1.03
1.27
859.00
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
814
1815.00
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2820
1.41
335.90
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
988
#NA
315.30
240.84
380.10
Sell
Buy
432
1.86
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4304.00
3972.00
7745.00
Neutral
Sell
2768
0.51
RIO TINTO
3079.50
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2445
1.44
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1020.00
992.00
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2695
2.17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1190.50
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
887
BP
439.65
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
982
1.04
CAIRN ENERGY
265.50
251.80
296.10
Neutral
Sell
-40
1.25
0.76
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
Target
Beta
0.81
8.01
5.44
9.51
Neutral
Strong Buy
89
790.00
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
573
1.25
72.25
48.50
80.38
Neutral
Sell
-59
1.21
1.45
331.90
321.30
400.20
Neutral
Buy
402
2115.00
2077.50
2365.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8247
0.78
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
406.70
290.14
417.00
Neutral
Neutral
436
0.53
TULLOW OIL
997.00
975.50
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
685
1.08
783.50
720.50
915.50
Neutral
Sell
717
1.40
PREMIER OIL
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14 October 2013
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Page 11 of
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
123.00
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Buy
Beta
164
0.85
407.40
314.60
432.50
Neutral
Sell
364
0.75
4349.00
3610.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4472
0.33
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.32
0.32
3.58
Buy
Sell
Target
-4
Beta
3176.50
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
7922
0.47
377.10
317.50
397.90
Neutral
Sell
175
0.38
0.18
0.89
691.50
569.00
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
666
1554.50
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Neutral
1678
0.49
2.31
1.33
2.83
Buy
Sell
-3
0.38
0.79
58.00
51.50
568.75
Buy
Sell
-255
2445.00
1727.00
2593.00
Neutral
Sell
1256
0.69
SKYEPHARMA
90.25
43.50
101.75
Neutral
Sell
28
0.51
VERNALIS
29.25
19.38
31.00
Neutral
Sell
0.76
SHIRE
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
461.00
322.90
462.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
768
1.24
BRITISH LAND
591.00
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Buy
880
1.14
2462.00
1985.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5400
1.32
567.50
446.50
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1250
1.07
HAMMERSON
507.00
458.70
554.00
Neutral
Buy
594
1.41
1.22
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
INTU PROPERTIES
329.70
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
612
945.00
762.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1895
1.22
29.38
24.25
38.50
Neutral
Sell
-182
0.78
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
121.20
103.20
121.90
Neutral
Sell
-9
0.33
MCKAY SECURITIES
179.50
131.50
179.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
304
0.50
474.00
341.50
500.00
Neutral
Sell
252
0.57
317.00
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
119
0.22
47.50
30.75
47.50
Neutral
Sell
-420
0.43
1.96
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
SEGRO
318.00
221.60
318.00
Neutral
Sell
-340
SHAFTESBURY
600.50
522.50
668.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
912
1.13
226.50
178.75
230.00
Neutral
Sell
0.95
WORKSPACE GROUP
466.50
281.90
481.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1516
1.10
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Page 12 of
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
347.30
223.50
365.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
682
Beta
0.72
41.50
22.75
42.00
Neutral
Sell
-53
0.55
0.80
CLS HOLDINGS
1200.00
656.50
1260.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2936
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
3944.00
2706.00
4200.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
14765
0.56
202.00
143.00
209.00
Neutral
Neutral
195
1.14
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
GRAINGER
178.50
105.10
187.50
Neutral
Sell
112
1.64
HELICAL BAR
295.00
178.00
302.50
Neutral
Sell
205
0.83
35.25
21.50
35.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
228
0.60
6462.50
4350.00
6512.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14563
0.69
88.00
51.75
92.00
Sell
Sell
-211
1.10
1.56
79.00
61.50
79.75
Sell
Strong Buy
210
620.50
392.80
664.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1875
0.68
85.00
72.50
90.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
373
0.42
ST MODWEN PROPS.
330.70
194.00
333.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
631
1.68
UNITE GROUP
385.60
260.70
403.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1643
1.93
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
113.25
109.50
162.00
Neutral
Buy
142
0.66
2537.00
1975.75
2650.00
Neutral
Sell
1499
1.49
COMPUTACENTER
536.50
333.29
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1477
0.85
KOFAX
370.50
260.75
388.00
Neutral
Sell
346
1.11
0.78
AVEVA GROUP
INNOVATION GROUP
Target
Beta
31.00
20.75
31.00
Sell
Sell
27
770.50
543.00
812.50
Neutral
Buy
1043
0.84
PHOENIX IT GROUP
160.00
130.00
184.00
Neutral
Sell
-228
0.59
0.58
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
113.50
64.00
114.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
269
1959.00
1275.00
2190.00
Neutral
Buy
2169
0.62
322.90
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
439
0.70
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
393.40
318.20
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1287
1.12
BREWIN DOLPHIN
268.50
169.80
283.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
648
0.85
8550.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
81297
0.85
454.75
264.38
474.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1414
0.89
0.64
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
Target
Beta
210.00
155.00
228.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1628
1275.00
830.00
1275.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4799
0.78
96.60
90.00
110.40
Neutral
Sell
77
0.77
CHARLES TAYLOR
5.50
0.75
5.70
Neutral
Sell
-124
0.77
HENDERSON GROUP
HELPHIRE GROUP
197.10
109.10
197.10
Sell
Strong Buy
793
1.44
ICAP
365.00
280.80
422.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
822
0.94
456.90
287.20
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2253
1.77
INVESTEC
420.20
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2605
1.54
1577.00
930.00
1652.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6862
1.32
78.75
71.80
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4791
1.23
1520.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5417
0.83
SCHRODERS
2644.00
1518.00
2644.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8084
1.42
SCHRODERS NV
2209.00
1193.00
2209.00
Sell
Strong Buy
11250
1.38
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17
14 October 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 13 of
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
285.00
157.75
285.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
607
0.79
AGGREKO
1477.00
1442.00
2302.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3178
1.04
AMEC
1085.00
965.50
1127.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3187
0.98
630.50
342.60
730.00
Neutral
Buy
942
1.69
1177.00
940.00
1218.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2494
0.40
647.00
372.50
647.00
Sell
Strong Buy
2254
0.84
1334.00
1009.00
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2666
0.49
599.00
265.00
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1571
0.47
1005.00
713.00
1057.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1820
0.57
59.00
34.54
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
421
0.79
0.78
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
CAPITA
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
COMPASS GROUP
855.00
671.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1909
BERENDSEN
912.00
563.00
939.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3250
1.02
DE LA RUE
946.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2246
#NA
0.21
DIGNITY
1400.00
922.31
1567.68
Neutral
Buy
1677
DIPLOMA
615.00
435.00
661.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1285
1.00
ELECTROCOMP.
272.90
203.90
282.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
853
1.03
ESSENTRA PLC
725.50
510.00
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1229
1.13
G4S
243.00
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
884
0.42
HAYS
121.60
76.70
121.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
386
0.99
HOMESERVE
252.70
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
898
0.93
INTERSERVE
586.00
349.10
591.50
Sell
Strong Buy
3013
1.15
3270.00
2773.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4299
0.74
51.75
33.63
51.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
225
1.03
0.61
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
26.50
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
180
MENZIES (JOHN)
804.00
573.00
809.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1973
1.37
494.50
346.40
502.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
776
1.19
MITIE GROUP
290.90
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
994
0.50
39.25
33.75
132.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
631
0.28
1044.00
750.00
1185.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1791
0.72
PREMIER FARNELL
211.70
165.50
238.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
537
1.40
OFFICE2OFFICE
PAYPOINT
REGUS
192.70
96.00
195.70
Neutral
Sell
69
1.46
RENTOKIL INITIAL
109.90
85.00
111.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
436
1.31
REXAM
478.00
432.56
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1734
0.90
RICARDO
585.00
349.63
585.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1565
1.04
ROBERT WALTERS
325.00
191.00
335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
918
1.11
RPC GROUP
453.90
378.00
477.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1571
0.72
RPS GROUP
268.70
195.50
274.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
877
1.49
SERCO GROUP
542.00
522.50
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2163
0.52
SHANKS GROUP
94.75
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
349
1.55
66.00
30.00
66.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
323
1.17
181.25
92.25
206.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
513
0.64
67.63
40.50
70.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
311
0.81
VP
498.50
313.00
499.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2193
0.65
WYG
105.50
51.00
110.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
188
0.78
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
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14 October 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 14 of
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
348.10
212.50
350.90
Neutral
Buy
Target
436
0.92
40.82
34.31
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
81
0.66
702.00
542.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
258
0.52
92.25
68.25
92.25
Neutral
Buy
123
0.97
1396.00
830.00
1403.00
Neutral
Sell
837
0.05
219.80
154.45
222.00
Neutral
Sell
129
0.46
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
308.70
195.70
326.00
Neutral
Sell
223
1.17
505.00
350.00
520.00
Neutral
Buy
561
0.91
CLARKSON
2343.00
1150.00
2350.00
Sell
Sell
1266
0.77
EASYJET
1272.00
597.50
1448.00
Neutral
Sell
849
0.78
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
120.70
92.00
182.47
Neutral
Strong Buy
267
0.85
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1100.00
750.00
1148.00
Neutral
Sell
797
0.69
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1673.00
1220.00
1697.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2881
0.94
NATIONAL EXPRESS
255.50
164.50
274.90
Neutral
Neutral
244
1.33
NORTHGATE
442.25
247.75
442.25
Neutral
Sell
350
1.22
STAGECOACH GROUP
333.70
265.90
337.60
Neutral
Buy
461
0.87
WINCANTON
108.00
43.75
108.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
275
0.83
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
363.30
310.80
402.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
564
0.51
NATIONAL GRID
748.00
682.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
966
0.49
PENNON GROUP
693.50
598.00
734.50
Neutral
Sell
615
0.66
SSE
1451.00
1364.00
1676.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2239
0.44
SEVERN TRENT
1786.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1486
0.39
700.00
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
748
0.51
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17
Target
Beta
14 October 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 15 of
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
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