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Summary
Portfolio management - definitions; The process; Investment Policy Statement IPS; Strategic Asset Allocation - SAA; Tactical Asset Allocation - TAA; Securities selection - SS; Implementation; Performance and risk measurement;
Portfolio Management - the art and science of making decisions about investment mix and policy, matching investments to objectives, asset allocation for individuals and institutions, and balancing risk vs. performance.
IPS - content
client description; objectives; constraints; asset allocation and deviation limits; guidelines for adjustments and rebalancing; duties and responsibilities of the parties involved; schedule for both performance and IPS review;
IPS - objectives
Risk objectives Define the amount of risk to which portfolio will be exposed
Return objectives differentiate between required and desired; differentiate between real and nominal return; differentiate between pretax and after tax return; must be consistent with risk objectives and market conditions;
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IPS - constraints
liquidity expected or unexpected cash outflows to be met at some point in time; time horizon; tax concerns; legal and regulatory factors; unique circumstances;
SAA how?
Asset Class Equities Fixed income Money market TOTAL Expected risk 20% 10% 3% ? Expected return 25%% 11% 8% ? Weight ? ? ? 100% Allowed deviations +/- x% +/- y% +/- z%
Inputs: asset classes, expected risk and return, correlation matrix, constraints (short selling etc) Process: mean variance optimization; (alternatives: Black Litterman model, Monte Carlo simulation, etc;) Output: set of all possible portfolios (weights) with maximum return for any given risk level (or minimum risk for any given return level) = efficient frontier
Deviation from SAA introduces the risk that portfolio could return less than the SAA portfolio (benchmark), so this risk should be rewarded by additional return (over the benchmark return)
Security selection - SS
Deciding the structure of one asset class within the portfolio/ setting the so called model portfolio for each asset class / selecting form the investment universe the securities which will be included in the portfolio; Factors to consider liquidity; diversification vs. crowding effect; valuation; top down vs. bottom up;
SS - valuation
Sources of research: brokerage houses vs. independent research vs. own research Valuation methods
Discounted cash flows (DCF) discounted dividend model (DDM); free cash flow to the firm (FCFF); free cash flow to the equity (FCFE;) Peer comparison based on price multiples P/E; P/B; P/S;
Implementation trading
TAA + SS => % weight of each security within the portfolio;
Trading principles: long term price movements are determined by fundamentals; short term price movement are driven by changes in supply and demand, emotions, market sentiment, one off events etc; Recommendation: select securities based on fundamental analysis, enter or exit the market based on technical indicators; Diversify strategies: fundamental with technical overlay; Trading costs: fees; price impact; opportunity cost;
rebalance constant mix strategy; rebalance constant proportion portfolio insurance CPPI;
Rebalancing - CPPI
Protects the portfolio against adverse market movements. Protection comes at the cost of lower participation to market rallies (<100%) % in risky assets (i.e. equities) = m * (TA-f)
CPPI
110
100
90
80
70
60 10/07
11/07
12/07
01/08
02/08
03/08
04/08
BET
CPPI
Performance - definitions
Absolute return vs. relative return return of SAA = benchmark Alpha the portfolio return in excess of the benchmark return
Performance analysis performance measurement; performance attribution; Sources of alpha: tactical asset allocation; stock selection; market timing trading;
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Risk measurement
Absolute risk indicators Variance / standard deviation / value at risk; maximum drawdown; Relative risk indicators tracking error; Risk reward indicators Sharpe ratio; Information ratio;
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Q and A
bogdan.bilaus@rzb.ro