04 - Tight Clastics and Carbonates

Risk, Uncertainty & Economic Analysis for Resource Assessment and Production Forecasting in Shale and Tight Reservoirs
Introduction Probability, Distributions and Correlation Estimating Under Uncertainty Tight Clastics / Carbonate Assessment Shale Assessment Reservoir Flow Valuation Techniques
What Are Unconventional Resources?

Fruitland Coals Horseshoe River
CBM
Hybrid systems Piceance basin
Primarily a sorbed gas reservoir
Black Warrior basin dirty coals
Tight Sands and Carbonates

Mesaverde Almond Tesnus Granite Wash Monterey chalk Austin chalk Niobrara chalks Middle Bakken
Bossier Mancos Lewis Baxter
Shales
Rose & Associates, LLP
Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013
Tight Clastics to Shales

Poroperm Tightclastics wlean immatureinterbedded source. Secondarymigration significantlyneeded. Hybridtightclastics interbedded wrichmaturesource. Secondarymigration moderatelyneeded. PorousShale Thermallymature FracturedShale Thermallymature
Intergranular Intragranular
Spraberry LewisFm MancosFm MesaVerde Bakken BoneSprings
EagleFord;Haynesville Woodford;Wolfcamp Monterey,Marcellus Barnett

fractured
AfterBohacs andothers(2012)
Where Are Unconventional Resources?
Pre 1979 Observations on Tight Gas Fields

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) HC presence in synclinal parts of basin Production related to reservoir quality Accumulations sub normally pressured Gas present down dip where units are continuous to outcrop/subcrop No down dip water-gas contact Fields continued to expand
Primarily from Appalachian, Anadarko and San Juan Basins
Meckel andThomasson (2005)
Paradigm Shift 1979 to 1987 Recognized:

1) A critical link between a) source rock b) gas generation window c) abnormal pressures d) pervasive gas saturation e) which led to dehydration
active gas generation Over pressure
Under pressure
time
2) The dynamic nature of the tight gas systems: a) Initial supercharge creates overpressures and dehydration of the reservoir b) Later, losses dominate as the system converts to underpressure starting updip and water moves back in
Meissner (1987)
Meissner (1987)

Highandlow pressure portionsofthe Central AppalachianBasin
Zagorski (2013)

Two main types of pervasive tight gas accumulations
Under-Charged Over-Charged (loss exceeds gas charge) (gas charge exceeds loss)
1) Buoyancy observed 2) Some higher Sw 3) Sweet spots relate to conventional traps 4) Sw decreases towards conventional trap boundary 5) Higher Sw does not produce gas or water (perm jail) 1) Buoyancy not applicable 2) Sw uniformly low 3) Sweet spots relate to facies, thickness, perm, fractures 4) Very little or no water produced 5) Common on structures due to focusing
And lots of debate on continuous (aka basin centered) versus discrete accumulations
Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

1) Adequate Pressures 2) Pervasive high quality Shows 3) Adequate reservoir quality, thickness & continuity
As youll see, the nature of low permeability targets permits the use of this approach to tight carbonate plays and chert plays as well

1) Adequate Pressures
Granite Wash Play
Notetheefficiencyofthe petroleumsystemwithsourcerocks thesameageasthereservoir
Organic over pressured Penn shales
Bonus: Granite wash reservoir in Anadarko Basin typically have very oily gas. About 9 tongues of wash now drilled by horizontals
CordilleraEnergyPartnerswebsite

Piceance Basin
10,000
Wet sands
transition
0
Pervasive underpressure, or overpressured core with underpressured rim is evidence that the kitchen is turned off, so that leakage exceeds charge. (Note, the water cant get back into the shales, only the sands and silts) When the kitchen remains on, charge exceeds leakage and all is overpressured
Cumella (2005)

Elevation of perf interval, ft
San Juan Basin
Pervasive underpressure, or overpressured core with underpressured rim is evidence that the kitchen is turned off, so that leakage exceeds charge.
BH pressure, psi
When the kitchen remains on, charge exceeds leakage and all is overpressured
NelsonandCondon(2008)

2) Pervasive high quality shows
Granite Wash Play
Notetheabundanceofearlywells withshows

2) Pervasive high quality shows
Granite Wash Play
Notetheabundanceofearlywells permitseffectivethermalmodeling tofindtheliquidswindow
Higley (2011)

3) Adequate reservoir quality and thickness
Granite Wash Play
Cordillera Energy Partners website

Piceance Basin
Thickness (ft) of continuous gas shows
HoodandYurewicz (2008)

2) Pervasive high quality Shows Gas Show Categories
I: II: III: Filament Droplet (residual) In solution Accumulations Migration path or depleted field HCs are present
i.e. inferred from fluid inclusions
CoreLaboratories

2) Pervasive high quality Shows
Tests which show gas: at a measurable rate cut mud w/o formation water cut water cushion w/o formation water cut filtrate w/o formation water in WLT chamber w/o formation water Log evaluation with calculated moveable HC Show information can come from mud logs, electric logs, formation tests
Mud log from Jonah Field Warner, 1998
CoreLaboratories

Quartz
95 sublitharenite 75 Granite Wash Up to 4% oil Very oily gas litharenite Compositional range of pervasive tight gas sands reservoirs
Neuquen Basin
Feldspar
25
50
25
Rock Fragments
NorthAmdatasources:BEG,DOE,GTI,summarizedbyMeckel (2008)
10

10 Stressed Permeability, md Core measurements @ Ambient 2000 psi 4000 psi
0.1
0.01
Make sure measurements approach in-situ conditions 5 10 15 Porosity, % 20
0.001
Shanley andothers(2004)

In-situ permeability, md
Mesaverde, Green R.
Porosity, %
Granite Wash
Travis Peak
Frontier, Wind River
Abo
Vicksburg
NorthAmdatasources:BEG,DOE,GTI,summarizedbyMeckel (2008)
11

Many pores are reduced to slots, which serve as flow paths, connecting significant secondary pores created by grain dissolution

Mesaverde
Predicting perm from porosity for all data has + / - 10x error When examining sub trends at phi ~ 12% reduces error to 5x
Cluff (2009)
12

Klinkenberg Perm, mD
Niobrara Chalk
1.0
Diatomites
Miss. Chat is widespread in OK and KS, and comprised of varying amounts of weathered chert, limestone and dolomite and found at the top of the Miss. Lime. Porosities range from 3 to 35%.
0.1
Miss. Chat
0.01 20 30 porosity (%) 40
AfterWatney,TheUniversityofKansas microtech.thepttc.org/gas_technology/watney_niobrara7a.pdf

Niobrara Chalk
10 microns
AfterWatney,TheUniversityofKansas microtech.thepttc.org/gas_technology/watney_niobrara7a.pdf
13

Belridge Oil Field
Diatomites
10 microns
Allanandothers(2006)

Permeability Jail revisited
Water Saturation (%) Cluff (2009)
14

This phenomenon is viewed as not likely as companies like Encana say they produce a lot of gas from the permeability jail. current drilling proceeds in the north blue area

Top overpressure, gas sat section SE
Upper Middle
Lance
Law(2002)
15

Completion history at Jonah Field
Base Fort Union
Top Lance 3,500 to 4,600 ft 1986: single stage; 1.5 BCF / well Late 1990s 4-5 stages across 700 ft ; ~ 5 BCF / well 2008: 8 - 15 stages targeting 2,000 ft ; ~ 5 - 12 BCF / well Upper Mesaverde
Ericson ss
USGS 2010 OF 1290
Nelsonandothers(2010)
16

---------- 5 years -------10 MMCFD
0.1 MMCFD
---------- 5 years -------10 MMCFD
0.1 MMCFD
USGS 2010 OF 1290
Nelsonandothers(2010)

3) Adequate reservoir quality, thickness & continuity
17

100
Width 10x thickness
Avg thickness, m
10
Width 100x thickness

10 100 1,000
Apparent Width, m Shanley (2004)

20
Width 10x thickness Width 100x thickness
Avg thickness, m
10
Ferron sandstone distributary channels
10
100
1,000
Apparent Width, m Lowrey andJacobsen(1993)
18

At Jonah field, these platelets of sand span 1 to 1,000 acres

Surdam (1997)
19

Pressure differential from lower perm sands drives gas into sweet spot, augmented by natural fractures
Surdam (1997)

So detailing fracture patterns is critical in tight sand plays
Hart(2006)
20
So detailing fracture patterns is critical in tight chalk plays Silo Field Niobrara chalk
Sonnenberg (2011)
So detailing fracture patterns is critical in tight chalk plays Silo Field Niobrara chalk
Sonnenberg (2011)
21

How is leached porosity such a pleasant surprise?

Evolved Gas, L/Kg
100
50
In coals, lots of CO2 comes out before the CH4, and dissolves in the formation water, creating weak acids CH4
How is leached porosity such a pleasant surprise?
Ro
Smith(1989)
22
Volumetric considerations
Darcy flow: Low k Lots of h
BCF per sq mi Analogs of EUR per well
Very difficult to assess individual zone volumes, so alternative approaches have evolved
Piceance Basin
Cumella (2009)
Very difficult to assess individual zone volumes, so two alternative approaches have evolved
15 8 15
20 mi
Masters(1979)
23
Variable 1 2 3 4 5
Why plot = 30 / 5.4 5.55 products at a certain Percentile?
SwansonsMean=0.3*P90+0.4*P50+0.3*P10 SwansonsMean=0.3*()+0.4*()+0.3*()=
What is the mean Bcf / sq mi?
Which parameter drives the uncertainty?
To determine the output percentile that results from multiplying P10 input, use Excel function =normsdist(1.28*n) where n = # of distrib. ex: n = 3, P10 inputs =normsdist(1.28 * 3) =normsdist(1.28 * 1.73) =normsdist(2.22) =0.987 P01.3 (Excel uses LT conv.) for P90 inputs, = 1 P01.3 = P98.7
P00.01 P00.1 P01 P10
Input Percentile
P00.01 P00.01 P00.03 P00.1 P00.2 P00.5 P01.3 P03.5
P10 P50 P90 P90 P99
Why plot products at a certain Percentile?

P96.5 P98.7 P99.5 P99.8 P99.9 P99.97 P99.99 P99.99
P99.9 P99.99 0 1
10
Number of Input Distributions
* In a standard normal distribution, P10 occurs 1.28 standard deviations away from P50
Capen (1990)
24
P0.1 P1 P10
P90 P99 P99.9 1 10 100
BCF / sq mi
Rose & Associates, LLP 25 Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013
26
Darcy flow: Low k Lots of h
Pinedale Arch
Log analysis: Avg gross Lance 5,781 Avg pay thickness 1,417 Core analysis shows entire interval gas saturated
avg net pay has the highest P10/P90 of the inputs
Which parameter drives the uncertainty? avg net pay
www.ultrapetroleum.com
Exercise: GIP of high graded area

Exercise: Determine the mean GIP (TCF) for the high graded area defined by the overlap of Overpressure, > 0.43 psi / ft Thermally mature (Ro > 1.1)
27

210 310 380 370 470 420 400 ft 500 ft 520 460 300 ft 330
Exercise: Determine the mean GIP (TCF) for the high graded area defined by the overlap of Overpressure, > 0.43 psi / ft Thermally mature (Ro > 1.1)
390
Grid, each square is 3 x 3 miles Grid w net sand thickness and associated properties
28

0.75 1.1 0.70 1.2 1.1 1.2
Procedure: Determine the mean GIP (TCF) for the high graded area defined by the overlap of Overpressure, > 0.43 psi / ft Thermally mature (Ro > 1.1)
1.3
1.1
1.1
0.9
For this exercise lets agree that this outline is uncontested
Grid, each square is 3 x 3 miles Grid w Ro data

30

0.34 0.54 0.34 0.54 0.35 0.35
Procedure: Determine the mean GIP (TCF) for the high graded area defined by the overlap of Overpressured area, P90 case > 0.43 psi / ft squares x 9 sq miles per sq sq miles x 640 ac per sq mi ac
0.55
0.34 0.37 0.34
That is, 90% chance the overpressured area could extend this far, assuming a moderate lateral transition from under to overpressure A P99 overpressured area may be just around the northern two points. Grid w psi / ft
32

0.34 0.54 0.34 0.54 0.35 0.35
Procedure: Determine the mean GIP (TCF) for the high graded area defined by the overlap of Overpressured area, P01 case > 0.43 psi / ft squares x 9 sq miles per sq sq miles x 640 ac per sq mi ac
0.55
0.34 0.37 0.34
That is, 1% chance the overpressured area could extend this far, assuming a rapid lateral transition from under to overpressure and further constrained by Ro > 1.1 Grid w psi / ft
34

P0.1 P1 By this method, P10 overpressured area is about acres P10
P90 P99 P99.9 100
Area, thousands of acres

36

Procedure: Determine the mean GIP (TCF) for the high graded area defined by the overlap of Overpressured area, P90 case > 0.43 psi / ft
300 ft
Avg net sand across P90 area

400 ft 500 ft
37
38

Procedure: Determine the mean GIP (TCF) for the high graded area defined by the overlap of Overpressured area, P01 case > 0.43 psi / ft
300 ft
Avg net sand across P01 area

400 ft 500 ft
39
40

P0.1 By this method, P10 avg net sand thickness is about P1 feet P10
P90 P99 P99.9 100
Avg net sand, feet

42

P0.1
Product of these four parameters below Product of these four parameters below
P1 P10
P90 P99 P99.9 1 10
GIP, TCF
44
Commerciallyavailablesoftwarefor spatialcompositing Priemere PowerTools PlatteRiverSpatialAnalyst Exprodat PlayerfromGISpax
Solution: modeled after the Mesaverde in the Bighorn Basin
Herewealsoseethe Mowry shale(thesource) asaliquidrichreservoir target
USGSDDS69V
45
From the analog, forecast the EUR per well distribution for your play over the next x years
BCF per section Analogs of EUR per well
-- P90
-- P50
Appalachian tight sands in three groups through time
-- P10 100
10
MMCF / well
Milici andSwezey (2006)
46
Chance factor considerations

Here,weseparate source,reservoirand seal.Theneedforactual discreteclosuresmay changefromplaytoplay. %confidence assignmentscanbe aidedbythechance factoradequacy matrix
Chance factor adequacy matrix

For any chance factor
High Good Lots
Confidence level
0.0 0.2
0.8 1.0 Quality
Data Quantity Control
0.2 0.4
0.4 0.6
0.6 0.8
0.3 0.45
Low
0.45 0.55
0.55 0.7 Good News

Poor Limited
Bad News Coin Toss
47
So each chance factor is multiplied such that the product of the chance factors referred to as the play chance, represents your confidence of?
Suchthattheproductofthechancefactors representsyourconfidenceofachievingthelow endoftheinitialproductionratedistributionin thefirststageofdrilling,somewhere inyour definedplaysegment
Month
48
Isopach of coals 100 km
Masters(1984)
Overpressure begins at beginning of HC window; consistent with Meissner model
Chevron Horse Stud Butte # 13 27 What later became Jonah Field
Ro
49
Depth x 1,000
Overpressure begins at beginning of HC window; consistent with Meissner model
8 12 16
10
15
0.2
PSI x 1,000
Ro
Law(2002)
Velocity converted from well logs
20 mi Surdam (1997)
50

Whenwemodelaplay Wedeterminefirstthe playchance,
PlayChance(atthesegmentlevel): then
Theproductofthechancefactors,which representsyourconfidenceofachievingthe lowendoftheinitialproductionrate distributioninthefirststageofdrilling, anywhereinyourdefinedplaysegment

Whenwemodelaplay Wedeterminefirstthe playchance, thentheindependent chancetodeterminea drillingsuccessrate PlayChance(atthesegmentlevel): then
Theproductofthechancefactors,which representsyourconfidenceofachievingthe lowendoftheinitialproductionrate distributioninthefirststageofdrilling, anywhereinyourdefinedplaysegment Weestimate,giventheplaysegmentcan yieldminimalproduction,whatpercentage ofsubsequentwellswillsucceedwhen consideringgeologicalvariability(usingthe samechecklistasabove)andalsothe percentageofwellsthatwillsucceedwhen consideringmechanicalconcerns.
Independentchance(atthewelllevel):
Thisineffectdeterminesthepercentageofthesimulationtrialsthathaveaccess toproduction Thischanceofsuccessisthenusedtocalculate,withestimatesofproduction,timing, productpriceandcosts,thechanceofmakingaprofit(aswellastheamountofprofit).
51
Possible Analogs for your Tight Sand Play

Field Basin Formation Depth (ft) Permeability (md) Typical Reservoir Properties Net Pay (ft) Net Pay (ft) Pmean Porosity (%) Porosity (%) Pmean Gas Saturation (%) Gas Saturation (%) Pmean Spacing (acres) Typical Recovery Factor Pressure Gradient (psi/ft) Pressure (psi) Temperature ( F) Bg (RCF/SCF) Reserves/Well (BCF) IP (MCF/D) Dni b factor Calculations for W ell and Field GIP/Spacing (BCF) GIP/Acre (BCF) GIP/Section (BCF) Rec MMCF/ac-ft Recoverable/Section (Bcf) Drainage Area @80% RF Field Area (Acres) Field Area (Sq.Mi.) Field Resources Estimated (TCF) Field Resources Calculated (TCF)
o
Jonah Green River Lance 8,200 - 11,800 .02 - .005 500 - 1,000 526 6% - 12% 9% 60% - 70% 65.0% 40 50% 0.50 5,000 - 6,000 175 0.003351 8.0 7,000 80.0 1.9 16.0 0.40 256.0 0.38 128.0 25 23,680 37 6.3 4.74
Wattenburg DJ Muddy 7,600 - 8,400 0.05-.0005 15 - 58 32 8% - 12% 10% 27% - 56% 55.0% 32 75% 0.38 2,900 250 0.00667 0.5 360 78.8 1.9 0.37 0.01 7.4 0.49 5.5 54 630,000 984 2.6 9.84
Blanco San Juan Mesaverde 4,047 - 6218 .01 - 158 98 - 245 171 3% - 18.4% 10.7% 10% -91% 49.5% 160 45% 0.30 1,500 158 0.009804 2.8 580 96 3.7 6.4 0.04 25.8 0.10 11.6 87 1,036,480 1,620 7.6 18.14
Rulison Piceance Mesaverde 5,400 - 8,900 0.054 10 - 400 350 6% - 10% 7.0% 30% - 70% 60.0% 40 35% 0.50 2,700 - 4,000 168 0.00462 1.7 875 84.5 1.5 5.5 0.14 88.7 0.12 31.0 15 46,080 72 1.96
Mamm Creek Piceance Mesaverde 5,000 - 8,000 0.09 - 0.01 250 - 600 400 6% - 12% 9.0% 35% - 70% 55.0% 20 45% 0.50 2,500 - 4,000 175 0.0052 1.5 740 80 2.2 3.3 0.17 106.2 0.19 47.8 11 28,500 45 2.14
Dew-Mimms East Texas Bossier 11,000-14,000 0.1-0.01 10 - 300 65 6% - 12% 8.0% 50% - 70% 60.0% 80 65% 0.65 8,400 280 0.003158 1.9 3,000 43.2 2 3.4 0.04 27.5 0.37 17.9 55 30,000 47 1.1 0.71
CourtesyofMarioSavard EnCanaCorporation
Key Chance Elements: Exercise

Exercise: (a) map the continuity of the target sand; (b) determine your confidence of sustained flow to advance beyond the explor. gate > 600 MCF/D Modeled with min avg res thickness > 20 ft
-6,000
-6,000
-4,000 -2,000
50 miles
Basement contours, subsea
52

1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.6
Ro, %, a measure of thermal maturity

next map
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.6
Ro, %
53

What is your % confidence there will be production > 600 MCF / D for this area, defined by the large outline? From the chance system above, it boils down to the three parameters below 1) 2) 3) Adequate Pressures Pervasive high quality Gas Shows Adequate reservoir quality, thickness & continuity
54
55
56
Key Chance Elements: Tight Sand Play

Exercise: (a) map the continuity of the target sand; (b) determine your confidence of sustained flow to advance beyond the explor. gate Top > 600 MCF/D pressure Modeled with min avg res thickness > 20 ft
c a b d 20 40 i h j k n m L u t s r q f e
p 40
10 miles
57

04 - Tight Clastics and Carbonates

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Risk, Uncertainty & Economic Analysis for Resource Assessment and Production Forecasting in Shale and Tight Reservoirs

What Are Unconventional Resources?

Primarily a sorbed gas reservoir

Black Warrior basin dirty coals

Tight Sands and Carbonates

Bossier Mancos Lewis Baxter

Rose & Associates, LLP

Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013

Tight Clastics to Shales

Spraberry LewisFm MancosFm MesaVerde Bakken BoneSprings

EagleFord;Haynesville Woodford;Wolfcamp Monterey,Marcellus Barnett

Where Are Unconventional Resources?

Rose & Associates, LLP

Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013

Pre 1979 Observations on Tight Gas Fields

Meckel andThomasson (2005)

Paradigm Shift 1979 to 1987 Recognized:

Rose & Associates, LLP

Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013

Paradigm Shift 1979 to 1987 Recognized:

Paradigm Shift 1979 to 1987 Recognized:

Rose & Associates, LLP

Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013

Paradigm Shift 1979 to 1987 Recognized:

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Rose & Associates, LLP

Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Organic over pressured Penn shales

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Rose & Associates, LLP

Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

San Juan Basin

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Rose & Associates, LLP

Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Cordillera Energy Partners website

Rose & Associates, LLP

Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Thickness (ft) of continuous gas shows

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Rose & Associates, LLP

Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Rose & Associates, LLP

Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Make sure measurements approach in-situ conditions 5 10 15 Porosity, % 20

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Frontier, Wind River

Rose & Associates, LLP

Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Rose & Associates, LLP

Ch 4 - Tight Clastics/Carbonate Assessment AAPG Cartagena 2D course, Sept. 2013

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play

Requirements for a Tight Sand Play