Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Contents
The Future of Human Creativity in Design Definitions Scanning the Horizon Introducing Drivers and Blockers Drivers Blockers Introducing Trends (Toolsets and Mindsets) Trends (Toolsets) Trends (Mindsets) Critical Uncertainties and the Matrix Uncertainties into Scenarios The Empathetic Civilization Design Deity Technocracy iCreate Signposts Implications Wind-tunneling Exclusive Worlds and Design Toolsets Exclusive Worlds and Design Mindsets The Danger of Exclusivity The Uncertainty of Inclusivity Strategies Build Your Own Tools (Re-design Design) Drop Out of School Jailbreak Design Conclusion Biographies References 2 6 17 18 20 28 32 34 42 52 54 57 61 65 69 72 73 75 78 80 81 84 86 89 93 97 100 104 107
This project documents and unpacks learning in the domain of scenario generation by OCAD University graduate students Trevor Haldenby, Kelvin Kwong, and Martin Ryan. Undertaken over ten weeks in the midst of a two-year MDes program in Strategic Foresight and Innovation, the project explores the relationships between creativity and design in a compelling and educational way. Zooming in on the drivers and trends shaping our chaotic and increasingly interconnected world, the project utilizes them to extrapolate forward ten years and imagine four scenarios of what it might mean to work as a design professional in 2021. While the project represents an attempt to wrap our heads around a very complex and philosophical domain, the team had advice from expert faculty and researchers at OCAD Universitys Strategic Innovation Lab and Digital Futures Initiative; as well as mentorship from Tom Wujec, an Autodesk Fellow and globally renowned thought-leader in organizational creativity and innovation. For more information about OCAD Universitys research programs in Strategic Foresight and Innovation, please visit: ocad.ca/programs/graduate_studies slab.ocad.ca
student or emerging professional amongst the Millennials ranks, then were glad youve made it this far youre the audience we wanted to reach out to with this project. The challenge will be yours to seek economically gainful, personally meaningful, and broadly beneficial employment in the midst of the 21st century. Whether you see yourself working independently, for a creative consultancy like Frog, with a design advocacy group like the AIGA, in an academic institution like OCADU, or at a design toolmaker like Autodesk, there are forces colliding that threaten to smash the very foundations of your strategy. This project is about taking a look at trends and driving forces in play in the world of design, and reading between the lines in order to imagine what their impacts might be on the world of 2021. A decade may not seem like a long time, but keep in mind how different the world of 2001 was from the world of today. Homeland Security was not any more than awkward jargon, iPods were something to snort at unless you were a Mac user with significant disposable income, and Lady Gaga was best known as a gawky teen with a walk-on role in The Sopranos. The dot-com bubble had just burst, and no one was really sure if the Internet would sustain another year, let alone decade, of growth and evolution. How different will the world of 2021 be from the world of 2011? Will industries that derive value from a designerly approach to creativity thrive, collapse, or morph into forms unrecognizable? Will creative roles once filled exclusively by experts be occupied by smart systems that do a better job of analyzing the world than any human could? Will massive changes in who does design and how it is done impact how we understand human creativity? If you are a design student today, these are the questions that could keep you up at night for the rest of your career. But they are also questions that you can start to think about today.
Creativity is:
Definitions
Definitions
Before beginning our exploration into the complex world of today and our visions of the future, it is important to step back and establish clear definitions for a few key terms we are going to be spending plenty of time exploring.
Creativity and design are complex and interconnected areas of focus; the former usually thought of as a character trait or abstract concept, and the latter often contextualized as activity undertaken in the creative services sector. The following definitions, inspired by some of each fields most prominent and provocative thinkers, map out the borders of the territory that our project explores.
Creativity Imaginative activity fashioned so as to produce outcomes that are both original and of value.
Sir Ken Robinson One of the most straightforward definitions of creativity is rooted in the 1999 report of the United Kingdoms National Advisory Committee on Creative and Cultural Education, chaired by Sir Ken Robinson, renowned thought leader and advisor on the topic of education and creativity. Imaginative activity fashioned so as to produce outcomes that are both original and of value. In that same document, and many others in his oeuvre, Robinson also suggests a metaphorical approach to considering creativity: as a bridge between imagination and innovation. Visualize a chasm with a bustling commune of idealists and visionaries perched on one side, and a metropolis of three-piece-suited economists and entrepreneurs on the other. If imagination is the ability to envision something original in the minds eye, and innovation the ability to implement real-world market solutions stemming from that vision,
Definitions
(imagination)
(creativity)
(innovation)
Im
C
}
In
Toolsets + Mindsets
Definitions
education
advertising
industrial engineering
marketing radio
publishing
film
software development
music
television
architecture
Definitions
then creativity is the bridge of activity spanning the distance between these two worlds; the set of activities that transform ideas into meaningful products and services. It is important to remember in the chaos of excitement around imagination and innovation that new ideas are only as good as the products that deliver them to social markets, and meaningful innovations only as original as the novelty of the visions from which they have spawned. Sir Ken Robinson sees creativity as important and relevant within multiple social and organizational frames of reference. To the individual, creativity is empowering and rewarding enabling synthetic connections to be made in the mind between learned ideas and personal experiences. To organizations, creativity is crucial wealth and employment opportunities are generated out of the new connections made within and between businesses, providing benefit not only to shareholders but to the broader population as well. To societies, creativity represents the mechanisms by which connections are made between people of different value systems, cultural backgrounds, or even nations. Sir Ken Robinson sees creativity as important and relevant within multiple social and organizational frames of reference. To the individual, creativity is empowering and rewarding.
Creativity is therefore ultimately about connection the connection of visionary ideas to real-world change, the connection of people and institutions to one another, and the connections between daydreams and innovative solutions.
Design
If creativity is defined as activity that transforms imagined ideas into real-world innovations, then how do we define design? An important first step is to consider the way in which design, as a discipline, represents an outlet or venue for creativity. All of those who identify as designers; architects, graphic artists, user experience experts, and webmonkeys; work in what are increasingly being referred to as creative industries, a term popularized in John Howkins book The Creative Economy. While these industries may not identify as siblings (or even cousins) of the design discipline, all of them make use of creative toolsets and mindsets similar to those of design in order to generate value.
Definitions
Designers are far from the only professionals focused on creativity. Economists, linguists, research and development experts, software engineers, and teachers are all intensely interested in how to bridge the proverbial gap between imagination and innovation. But designers have a unique attribute on their side, one that helps them stand out from the bustling crowd of disciplines and industries concerned with creativity: the portability of their approach to creativity in their profession. What seems to be crucially important about design, particularly at this complex and interconnected phase in history, is that its core toolsets and mindsets are suitable for application to all manner of business and organizational challenges; within and beyond the much-touted creative economies of advertising, fashion, software, music, and film. In the same way that Stewart Brand famously said that information wants to be free, designs approach to creativity could be seen as wanting to be broadly relevant and cross-disciplinary.
Definitions
While Designerly Ways of Knowing was written almost 40 years ago, it was not the first attempt to map out the domain of design. And it certainly was not the last. The late 20th and early 21st century have been characterized in terms of design scholarship by an explosion of models for design methods and process. Numerous ideologies compete for prominence in the design community, and we focused our research and consideration on one of the most popular and controversial at present Design Thinking. Formalized as an ideology over the course of the latter half of the 20th century, Design Thinking represents a systematic structure intended to keep empathy, idea generation, and analysis in balance throughout any creative problem framing-solving activity. Stanford Universitys Institute of Design, the d.school, suggests that a sevenstep non-linear process of understanding, observation, point-of-view projection, ideation, prototyping, and testing best maintains the balance between design thinkings three core responsibilities. After consulting, comparing, and boiling down many of the values and processes associated with Design Thinking and other creative ideologies, we have synthesized a list of toolsets (practical methods utilized in the creative process), and mindsets (core orientations structuring the way one perceives the world) that make up the backbone of designs creative approach.
Here is another way to think of the duality between toolsets and mindsets: toolsets are the things a designer uses, and mindsets represent a designers values and what he or she wants to do.
Definitions
Toolsets
what I do I explore human experience I uncover and share insight I reframe problems I facilitate collaboration I generate ideas I look for patterns and trends I visualize to make sense I make prototypes I test my ideas what I use HCD research methods, participatory methods Metaphor, writing, graphic design story telling facilitation techniques, drawing and mapping brainstorming secondary research, analysis software sketching, graphic design tools, PowerPoint storyboards, paper, foam, CNC, 3D printers using simulators, user testing, beta testing
Mindsets
who am I I am creative I am curious I am human-centered I take risks and provoke what I want to think in systems to integrate knowledge to iterate everything to seek genuine value
Definitions
What stands out about the toolsets and mindsets of design is that few of them are endemic to design as a discipline they did not originate with design, and they are not limited to use within its borders. Many have been imported from neighbouring disciplines including systems thinking, anthropology, engineering, and ecological science. All are tools or values that designers lean upon in addressing problems and opportunities creatively. Many of the items in these lists can also be transplanted to various creative industries (and beyond) for benefit in innovation, communications, or organizational learning.
Design toolsets and mindsets are opportunists, ecologically speaking, adapting to different creative challenges and contexts of use in the creation of value.
But the tools and values of design are by no means immune to influence from driving forces playing out across broad social, technological, economic, environmental, and political spectra. Look no further than the philosophical, methodical, and material design changes that have resulted from relatively modest shifts in cultural values towards sustainability for an example of how influence on design tools and mindsets can come from outside of design. With these connections in mind, we will move into an exploration of how various trends and drivers influence design tools and values in ways that could create uncertainty in 2021 for 2011s students and emerging design professionals.
Trend A significant pattern that affects a wide range of people and that has, or will eventually have, broad social, economic or political implications.
Driver A systemic force that lives underneath multiple trends, and influences their trajectory and ultimate expression.
Blocker A systemic force that has the potential to actively block the expected trajectory of a trend or driver.
Drivers
Open Access to Education (Social/Technology) Urbanity (Social) Amazing Complexity and Connectivity (Social/Technology) Infinite Computing (Technology)
Low
Certainty
High
Intellectual Property Wars (Economics) Economic Inequality and Unrest (Economic) Fragile Net Neutrality (Technology)
Blockers
The Future of Human Creativity in Design 19
Drivers
Drivers
Amazing Complexity and Connectivity (Social)
According to Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt, we create as much information every two days as we did from the dawn of civilization up to 2003. That equates to something close to 5 exabytes of data every 48 hours, almost 28 billion CD-ROMs. More and more of the data produced in the past decade is user generated content taking the form of pictures, videos, and tweets. But it is not only our ability to produce information and content that enables this amazing data complexity, it is our increasingly hyper-connected world and methods of communication. Our desire to produce content is increasingly fed by our ability to share it across networks, creating virtuous cycles of information production and diffusion. ARPANET, the Internets military predecessor, connected 113 nodes in 1975. By 2001 the Internet was connecting over 120 million hosts. At present, the IPV4 system of allocating addresses to over 4 billion clients is being exhausted, and the IPV6 protocol taking its place will be able to allocate more than 340 undecillion nodes, though many of them will not be computers in any traditional sense. Even in the production of something tangible, our world increasingly requires global collaboration throughout the process. As a result, we are often overwhelmed by what is available to us in terms of consumption and connection. Collectively, we are struggling to find meaning and clarity amongst the mess of information in our networks, resulting in information paralysis. Our ability to make sense of these complex and interconnected networks will continue to have a significant impact on the human experience as well as design practice. We are entering a future where anyone who can distill clarity or derive value from this chaos, designer or otherwise, will play a critical role.
Drivers
Drivers
Urbanity (Social)
Within the last decade, the human race has gone through an amazing demographic transition. For the first time in recorded history, more people are choosing to live in urban environments than rural ones. The UN Urbanization World Prospects projects that between 1900 and 2030, the percentage of humanity transitioning to life in an urban environment will surge to over 60% nearly 5 billion people. But just as in earlier periods in history, the transition to city living, while beneficial, is not always easy. Diverse cultural, ethnic, and professional groups are living shoulder-to-shoulder; often for the first time; and new innovations and conflicts are emerging like arcs of static electricity between proximal surfaces. The smaller footprint of urban areas has also necessitated the emergence of whole new approaches to design, planning, and collaboration. But there seems to be little opportunity for slowing down and measuring the impact of these changes. Some cities are expanding structurally, such as Shanghai, in which over 400 skyscrapers have been built in the historic core since 1990 alone; while others, like Toronto, are diversifying culturally, with at least 50% of the urban population now comprised of visible minorities and people born outside of Canada. The impacts of these massive changes in urban demography, planning, and design are extremely uncertain. Exactly what comprises the magic formula that enables diverse individuals and groups to productively and creatively collaborate is a matter of some contention. Whether democratic politics, open data, or something as seemingly simple as green space will prove to be the key that unlocks futures founded on sustainable urban living, one thing is sure. The growth of urban populations isnt slowing down.
Some cities are expanding structurally, such as Shanghai, in which over 400 skyscrapers have been built in the historic core since 1990 alone.
Drivers
Drivers
Drivers
New collaborative social networks build cooperation into their structure and systems, and in doing so shed the institutional burden of controlling and explicitly planning the process.
but consistent contribution from employees. Mass-collaborative platforms create their value by given voice and power to the single user with a single good idea a value that institutions are not structured to capture in a profitable way. These frameworks have given new voice to lead-users and pro-ams, people who do something for the love of it, but perform to very high standards. They have the tools, the knowledge and the passion to cultivate explosive instances of disruptive innovation, while existing outside institutional frameworks. Clay Shirky, an information theorist, argues that these crowd platforms will become increasingly effective at tapping into our cognitive surplus the trillion-plus hours of spare time that individuals on the planet today possess unleashing it in ways that ultimately create more value for society. These collaborative tools are ultimately lowering the barriers to participation on global projects and complex problems closing the gap between doing nothing and doing something. By turning users into producers and designers, these open collaborative models effectively multiply our productive resources, and they do so without the externally imposed limits of institutional frameworks. How will traditional institutions and organizations (unlikely to vanish any time soon) respond to this shift? This driver suggests that we will see the emergence of new hybrid institutional models that encourage participation in open collaborative structures while maintaining other, more traditional, institutional attributes. If the institutional collaboration of over 100,000 people was able to get an astronaut to the moon, what might we be able to do when we can coordinate the efforts of 100,000,000?
Drivers
We can expect that more and more decisions and workflows previously reserved for humans will become the responsibility of machines.
Drivers
Blockers
Blockers
Fragile Net Neutrality (Political/Technology)
The Internet began as a largely unregulated environment that anyone with online access could participate in. As use of the Internet has become a part of the fabric of Western society and its economy, some individuals and organizations have taken advantage of people less skilled in processing and negotiating online communications. This has increased calls for governments to regulate and control aspects of the Internet to protect the general public from online predators and copyright criminals alike. While many consider these laws similar to those already in existence to protect the general public in the physical world, it can also be argued that this power play for control of the Internet gives governments new options when it comes to monitoring and manipulating populations. Agencies such as the US Department of Homeland Security and governments like Chinas routinely monitor and control certain aspects of the Internet in an effort to control the population itself. Chinas regulation and control of the Internet is on the rise, the country having recently created a new central agency (The State Internet Information Office) to surveil every corner of the nations Internet community with the aim of suppressing dissidents and other social critics. New debates are emerging in the US about the regulation of the Internet, and whether the FCC has the legal right to regulate parts and users of the Internet that it identifies as dangerous. While it currently seems likely that the US will maintain an open Internet, other global powers are making different choices, including Russia, Iran, and China. Even in France, once considered a stronghold of freedom, the HADOPI laws with their three-strikes approach to unplugging copyright offenders have been entrenched in the legal system. Will risks to public safety, market stability, or corporate interests force the rest of the Western world down similar rabbit holes?
Blockers
Blockers
Blockers
Toolsets
Reality Digitized Asian Engineers Biomimicry Composite Value Indicators The Internet of Things Personal Manufacturing Open Sourcing Smartphones as Design Tools Design by Numbers Algorithmic Design Renaissance Teams Designerly Coding
Slow
Pace of Change
Fast
Academic Drift
Design-preneurs
Anti-DT Sentiment
Mindsets
Trends (Toolsets)
Trends (Toolsets)
Signals I ndustry leader in design software, Autodesk licenses parametric design tools intended for use across diverse organizations and industries. H od Lipsons team at Cornell University has created a virtual environment in which robot designs compete with one another and adapt through principles of natural selection and Darwinian evolution. S pore by Will Wright and Maxis features world-modeling tools that have resulted in over 100 million planetary systems and lifeforms. B rian Enos 77 Million Paintings feature the beauty of generative artwork and attempt to kindle societys humility in the face of the long now.
Design by Numbers
More designers are involved in the creation and use of software tools providing virtual design environments for the rapid development and iterative testing of numerous variables throughout the design process. Specific criteria can be parameterized, applied to a model, and tested against hundreds or even thousands of different scenarios; saving time, money, and effort. But what is to become of the role of the designer? With increased computing power, creative tools are increasingly being used to generate ideas, rather than using the creativity of an individual. Algorithmic creative tools may be used in artistic purposes, such as generating patterns, or by the economic community to search for ways of increasing wealth.
Trends (Toolsets)
Signals G ross National Happiness and Global Peace Index are new composite value indicators that place human values at their core. H ans Roslings multi-set data visualizations are morphing into Googles Public Data Explorer. Roslings software is featured in TED talks with tens of millions of views. G oogle Ngrams breaks bibliometric ground by scanning across thousands of 20th Century texts for certain words and phrases.
Trends (Toolsets)
Signals F orbes Magazine: The Rise of Developernomics. D ominant design tools are softwarebased: Adobe Illustrator, Photoshop, QuarkXPress, Flash, AutoCAD. T he Internet and World Wide Web are becoming dominant communications media, on the backs of designers who wield code and coders who devise elegant designs. A ll studios require designers to know how to use computers and applicable software.
Designerly Coding
There is an industry-wide adaptation taking place towards designers that are computer-literate and trained in the use of computer software relevant to their industry. In the past, designers were usually judged based on their artistic ability. They would generate concepts and ideas that other people that were more skilled with a particular talent, such as typographers and draftsmen, would help visualize and produce. As personal computers gained prominence in the 1980s through the 2000s, physical tools that were once in the domain of skilled experts became available as cheap or portable software for everyone. The skills of a photo retoucher were replaced by applications such as Adobe Photoshop. Now, not only are designers expected to be talented artistically, they are also expected to know how to use a myriad of computational and software tools, and to accept the mindsets that may come with them.
Signals T he RepRap project has brought the cost of 3D printing technology down to almost $0 by open-sourcing the plans and instructions. T he cost of higher-end rapid prototyping machines has dropped from the hundreds of thousands of dollars to the thousands. R apid prototyping has already rapidly diversified to fit niches and address needs across industries and disciplines from homebrew to Hollywood, automotive to academic. T hingiverse, Shapeways, Kraftwurx: three revolutionary online hubs for collaborating on and sharing 3D models, printing processes.
Personal Manufacturing
Mass-produced goods are not enough for some people. They want customized goods as well. While the ability to order customized goods is readily available (though extremely expensive), the ability to produce your own machine-made goods gives even greater control (at a lower per-piece price). Three-dimensional printing is sophisticated, but inexpensive computer numerical control (CNC) equipment has become more affordable, to the point that it is now within reach of some individuals like teachers and artists, rather than just engineers and fabricators. With personal CNC and RP (rapid prototyping) equipment, it is entirely possible for an individual to produce singleserving, highly-customized machined goods. This is an advanced form of craft, where customized goods may be hand-made, but it is also a revolution for the mass production of components. Future evolutions of the technology into the digital realm may involve printing custom-formed voxels containing tiny parallel processing units, and environmental sensors, opening up a new revolution in manufacturing.
Trends (Toolsets)
Renaissance Teams
As the problems we tackle grow more complex, and our understanding of them more interdisciplinary and systemic, the ability for an individual to handle the myriad of information and concepts is becoming increasingly difficult. The idea of expecting individuals with a wealth of knowledge and experience in a variety of disciplines is changing to reflect the value of a group of people with a wealth of knowledge diversified through experience across a variety of disciplines. Collaboration within teams emphasizes creativity, communication, clarity, and awareness of bias and subjectivity. Many ancient scientists were polymaths by todays standards, able to contemplate notions and derive innovative solutions across disciplinary spectra. But this is changing the idea of a Renaissance Man is being replaced by the idea of a Renaissance Team.
Signals I DEO shows how forming teams with members of different knowledge and skills can result in better collaboration and better solutions. O CADU starts its new Strategic Foresight and Innovation program with an emphasis on collaborative learning in groups, across disciplinary backgrounds. V innie Mirchandanis book The New Polymath explores case studies of compound innovation, where enterprises have amalgamated experts in diverse fields to secure a competitive advantage. P rofessor Donna Cox coins the term renaissance teams after conducting a study of how multidisciplinary groups of experts produced the best solutions to complex visualization challenges and projects.
Signals O pen source software projects Linux, Webkit, and Android are becoming increasingly popular, often dominant in their respective categories: servers and supercomputing, web browsing, and mobile computing. O pen content and intellectual property frameworks such as Creative Commons are growing in popularity, with popular photosharing site Flickr alone hosting more than 200,000,000 Creative Commons-licensed images. O ther popular and successful Creative Commons licensed projects include the Arduino computing platform, and Wikipedia.
Trends (Toolsets)
Signals B iomimicry 3.8 sees the ideology evolving to encompass applying learnings from the natural world to man-made systems, as well as forms and mechanisms. B iotechnology industries are becoming profitable finally. T he Designers Accord: a Kyoto Treaty for design, offering strategies for sustainability to designers across industries and disciplines. B iomimicry becomes a popular design philosophy for modeling human industries on natures no-waste cycles and systems.
Signals T he explosion in the popularity of smart phones among consumers tied to the popularity of social networking websites. People are able to Tweet their location to friends or find city infrastructure in need of attention (as in Ben Berkowitzs SeeClickFix app). C ar manufacturers build cellular self-diagnosing capabilities into their vehicles that allow information to be sent to a central computer system. A dvances in high-end digital rapid prototyping and manufacturing promise to build objects out of microcomputers, rather than inert raw materials. O CADU scholar Kate Hartman explores unconventional ways in which technology can help humans interact with environments and inanimate objects through interconnected networks of sensors and feedback mechanisms.
Trends (Toolsets)
Algorithmic Design
Originally resulting from the need for processes with which to solve complex mathematical problems, algorithms have permeated the world around us. These methods, utilized in data processing, automated reasoning, and calculation, are breaking out of the world of advanced mathematics and into stock exchanges, GPS units and even cinematic delivery channels like Netflix. With more and more of our decisions, questions, and learning experiences facilitated by these algorithmic assistants, we may need to start asking ourselves more direct questions about whether they are helping us by streamlining logical deduction, or hindering us by degrading our ability to consider even the simplest of problems.
Signals W ebsites such as Amazon.com use algorithms to predict and suggest future purchases based on previous purchasing patterns. 3 0+% of all stock trades in the European Union and the United States in 2006 were driven by automated algorithms, according to the Aite Group. By 2009, they accounted for 79% of all US equity trading volume. N etflix uses advanced algorithms, and prizes rewarding those who can improve them, to make cinematic recommendations based on perceived user tastes.
Asian Engineers
There has been declining interest in engineering and the hard sciences in the North America for many years. The number of students enrolling and graduating in engineering may also have led to a decline of the number of engineering jobs available. While there has been a decline in the U.S., there has been an increase in the number of engineers in countries with growth economies like those of China and India. While at present one element of this trend is a decline in the rate of brain drain from South-East Asia to North America and Europe, in the future it could result in an era of unconventional brain gain, when North America and Europes best engineers all flock to China and India in order to maximize their potential and gain lucrative careers.
Signals W ith fewer engineers, the US is beginning to suffer from poorly designed and maintained infrastructure, as well as a lack of innovative capacity in the hard sciences. Once the world leader in engineering, the US is now lagging far behind. A dvanced new fields of engineering are opening up around the world as fast as traditional institutions can offer degrees in them, from biomedical to aerospace M ike Lazairidis, co-CEO of RIM, The number of PhDs China plans to graduate within the next ten years is greater than the entire population of Canada. W hile absolute numbers tell one story, growth comparisons tell another: the number of PhDs China graduated in the last 20 years grew 40%, Mexico 10%, India 8.5%, United States 2.5%, Canada 1%.
Trends (Toolsets)
Signals P oint Cloud scanning technology is able to scan an entire building in three hours. M icrosofts Photosynth app combines smartphone sensors and advanced cloud processing to transform crowdsourced photos. R esearchers suggest that more than 80% of all smartphones will come with high-definition 3D cameras. C ave Automatic Virtual Environments (CAVE), developed for creating convincing virtual spaces. S econd Life and Habbo are taking hundreds of millions of users into software worlds where they can interact with objects and structures of their own design.
Reality Digitized
One of the tenets of good design is its sensitivity to its context and the systems with which it will interact. Today this need for systemic sensitivity is largely filled by soft in-context research methods such as ethnography, that can capture information about the physical spaces and the social dynamics of an environment. But most designers do not have the benefit of this toolkit and experience, creating a need for more mechanistic ways of capturing and analyzing environments. The speed and ease with which we can capture reality in the form of a high-resolution photograph or detailed 3D model representing an environment or object is making it more feasible to digitize the real world, and design in an extremely detailed virtual environment. Such tools will also have an effect on the iterative processes of design by allowing more designers and stakeholders to experience prototypes or versions of a solution before it is built, or even completed.
Trends (Toolsets)
Signals W alter Murch edits Oscar-nominated Cold Mountain with prosumer Final Cut Pro. A pple makes iMovie editing software available for handheld devices such as the iPhone and iPod Touch. H igh-resolution camera enabled smartphones have ability to connect to cloud servers. D esign toolmakers supplant professional high-margin desktop applications with low-margin mass market tools.
While the explosion in user-centric design software stemming from the desktop publishing revolution of the 1980s was a major and in some cases unexpected trend in the history of computing, it is currently being mirrored in the latest computing paradigm touch-interface mobile.
While the amount of revenue generated for industry heavyweights like Adobe and Autodesk through the reinvention of advanced content-creation apps on mobile platforms is still small, it may turn out to be marketshare that counts in this new space. A recent report in MITs Technology Review revealed that with the release of its SketchBook applications on the iOS platform, Autodesk was able to attract more paying customers in a single year than it had in the previous 29 years of its operations combined. While the first smartphones on the market were clunky and evolutionary steps forward from their less advanced telephonic cousins and early PDAs from Palm and Handspring, the smartphones of today are robust mobile computing platforms; incorporating high-speed always-on data, advanced capacitive touchscreens, and whole ecosystems of software. Critics were still bemoaning the fate of the iPad as a content-consumption device when it was first released, but the wave of applications enabling content creation and curation has overwhelmed all but the most fervent dissenters.
Trends (Mindsets)
Trends (Mindsets)
Signals E xhaustion with corporate success stories such as Proctor & Gamble, General Electric and Apple. G rowing list of leading design thinkers dissenting from the language and movement. Kevin McCullagh of Plan has recently criticized design thinking as not being developed for the big problems that design thinkers wish to tackle, labeling Design Thinking as old thinking for new times. B ruce Nussbaum has called design thinking a failed experiment in a recent Fast Company article and announced a new framework called Creative Intelligence. H elen Walters of Business Week and Doblin has openly criticized the movement in a number of articles in recent months. D on Norman, early champion of the user-centered design argues that design thinking is a nonsensical phrase that deserves to die. K nown design studios, such as Bruce Mau Design are distancing themselves form the terminology.
Anti-DT Sentiment
After some failed integration and implementation, many businesses and large corporations are becoming increasingly vocal about their experience and criticism of Design Thinking. Many leading thinkers in both design and business increasingly connect with the sentiment that Design Thinking is in fact a failed experiment, as it has failed to steer business away from the grips of a recession or take root in their organizational cultures. In addition, large parts of the design community, sensing and in some cases experiencing Design Thinkings limitations, are growing weary and frustrated by the term.
Trends (Mindsets)
Academic Drift
Designs academic identity is increasingly shaped by leading graduate business and liberal arts schools, from Rotman to Stanford, as well as established art and design players. In addition, the principles of design are increasingly being applied in the realm of childhood education, and advocated by a movement seeking to re-balance experience, design and art with the hard sciences in education. Hoping to prepare their students for the 21st century rather than the 20th, the proponents of this movement argue that creativitys value is demonstrated across disciplines, and that innovations come from integrative thinkers as much as specialists. So far, efforts to import design thinking into business and liberal arts programs have been more successful than the inverse. This increasingly marginalizes the role art and design institutions play in defining and charting the academic course of the design discipline. Designers will have to demand that their own institutions evolve and adapt to emerging standards, if they are to maintain their place in the conversation.
Signals T he rise of design management and design MBA degrees within mainstream graduate business schools, including IIT in Chicago, Rotman in Toronto, Stanford, MIT and Wharton. B usiness Weeks publication of the top 60 emerging design/business graduate programs outlines a majority of schools importing design rather than importing business. T he United Kingdoms studio school movement puts doing and designing at its heart. P rograms like OCADUs MDes in Strategic Foresight and Innovation have emerged within an art and design school but with bureaucratic separation from the traditional art and design programs delivering more of a liberal arts approach than a design approach. B ruce Nussbaum recently called for more liberal arts programs around the US to start teaching design thinking, encouraging a shift to what he calls innovation arts. H ugh Dubberly, czar of creative method-mapping, has recently called for the creation of new Design Education Manifesto.
Trends (Mindsets)
Signals P opular business press on Design Thinking is driven by IDEO (Change by Design) and Frog (A fine line). B oeings 787 Dreamliner is a quarterbillion dollar product developed through deep consideration of human factors and system-centric approaches to construction. H ow might consumer-friendly affiliates of the military-industrial complex internalize design thinking, and what might they return to it in terms of values and process?
Design Thinking
Although Design Thinking was birthed by traditional design industries and crafts, the term itself is increasingly associated with high-tech product manufacturers and innovation consultancies such as IDEO and MetaDesign. As heavy hitters and innovation leaders in manufacturing, construction, and information technology redefine the borders of design thinkings application, they also assume partial ownership of the idea. What shifts in terms of designs toolsets and mindsets might result from their stewardship by large corporations rather than poorly connected clusters of craft-practicing professionals? What roles might design advocacy groups like the AIGA and RGD play in shepherding this handover of stewardship from craftspeople to big corporate?
Signals I nnovation consultancies are turning the venture capital start-up model on themselves. Anomaly is an example of a new and growing class of design consultancies who is not only consulting for clients, but building and bringing to market their own products and services. T he design-centric success of crowd-sourced funding platforms such as Kickstarter. At least half the websites large projects those that have received $100,000 or more in financing have been design-related. For example, the success of Tiktok (a wristband that turns an iPod Nano into a watch) motivated more designers to leverage the platform and spun off a myriad of copycat designs sold alongside the original. I n the context of economic uncertainty, traditional financing and venture capital avenues are becoming more conservative and largely inaccessible to smaller untested ideas intended for niche markets. T he drying up of the traditional design job market and the shrinking of research and development budgets across the US, as a result of the recession, has increased incentives for entrepreneurial risk taking within the design community.
Design-preneurs
With the advent of design thinkings promotion of the businessvalue of design, designers are starting to recognize that same value in themselves, helping grow the entrepreneurial spirit of the design community. This is being enabled and amplified by the advent of crowd-sourced funding platforms like Kickstarter that reward good ideas in ways that banks and venture capitalists are often systematically incapable of mirroring. As the economy slows and design budgets shrink, designers around the world are becoming more open to risk and more confident in their ability to use these crowd-sourced funding platforms to take their ideas to market.
Trends (Mindsets)
Aes-pecations
Society increasingly holds critical design opinions on just about everything as models for great design are fill the marketplace and our lives. Apple is single-handedly responsible for many of these new expectations. The results is that while most members of mainstream society have no formal education in design, their experience with god design is education enough. Society is increasingly able to infer the qualities of good design from the design itself because of the increasing sensitivity to both well designed and poorly designed experiences. These expectations remain strongest in the digital and technological spaces, but are increasingly bleeding into more traditional categories, retail and online experiences.
Signals T he incredible success of Apple products in the past few years has educated consumers on their philosophy of what good design looks, and feels like. A pples design language is being copied in product services and website design all over the world. S ocial media now enable rapid wordof-mouth diffusion of new products and experiences see the backlash from the Blackberry playbook. T here is an ever-growing list of resources that help consumer curate and amplify their expectations such as, Core77, Design Sponge, GoodGuide, Gizmodo, Treehugger, Cool Hunting, and Wallpaper.
Signals T he success of crowd sourced marketing agency Victor and Spoils O pen public forums and consultations are the norm for any community planning process. I n 2010 LG Mobile Phones is collaborating with Crowdspring and Autodesk on Design the Future, which is a competition aimed at defining the next generation of mobile communication.
Trends (Mindsets)
Signals F ox now hires partisan political candidates to host programming, including Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee. T he rise to power of the Tea Party was made possible by the support of right wing mass media networks.
Subjective Media
Large media conglomerates such as the Fox Entertainment Group are increasingly defining societys perspectives and cultural norms through constant exposure to politically and culturally subjective views. This programming is also exported worldwide, perhaps in order to stimulate a shift in cultural values within other societies, resulting in homogenous and overly simplified global attitudes towards complex issues from climate change to partisan politics. The eventual outcome may be the suppression of diverse cultural viewpoints on relevant issues; in favour of global debate on a small selection of topics, steered by multinational corporations.
Signals L ow economic growth in 20082011 has refocused organizations operating efficiencies and profitability. O rganizations still operate under the measurement and efficiency cultures promoted by Six Sigma process improvement. M obile and email ubiquity has created shorter attention spans in the minds of clients. T ime management software and sophisticated Gant chats have been widely adopted across industries.
Time Crunch
Efficiency as a management philosophy is well entrenched in the business world. Philosophies such as Six Sigma have gained popularity among corporations and large organizations through the promise of maximized efficiency, reduced costs, and more opportunities for competitiveness in an increasingly connected world. Until recently the creative space has been protected from these philosophies, but with the attention and focus paid to both creativity and design as sources of innovation in ever faster market cycles, the designer (along with his/her toolsets and mindsets) is coming under greater and greater pressure to produce more in less time. Human creativity can be pressured, to a point, but if compressed too much its value can start to break down. Such pressures are significant enablers for the development of toolsets that automate and marginalize human creativity in the design process.
Trends (Mindsets)
Signals W ith a mission to empower youth through education, the One Laptop Per Child program aims to provide a low-cost and rugged laptop to all children to allow them to share in their learning through contributions and collaborations. T he Design For All program is a European Commission initiative to make the information society accessible to everyone, no matter what education, culture or status. A s the current generation of streetcars in Toronto are coming to the age of retirement, the Toronto Transit Commission is replacing the previously inaccessible streetcars with new low-floor and barrier-free streetcars.
Signals I TTT (If this, then that) is a new tool that allows the average consumer to hook together they their favourite web apps in customizable ways. P opular Product hacking communities include: hackszine.com and makezine.com. T hingiverse, Shapeways, Kraftwurx develop revolutionary online hubs for distributed 3D printing and model-sharing.
Trends (Mindsets)
Signals N ew technological, political, and economic incentives towards energy efficient home renovation have prompted many owners to invest in existing properties, rather than sell and buy new. E tsy.com, now one of many online marketplaces for buying and selling all things handmade. It has exploded in popularity in the last few years. Since their launch in June 2005, more than 100,000 sellers from around the world have opened up Etsy shops. Fueled by consumers desire for products with defined histories and back stories.
Craft Conscience
The economies of many Western countries rely on consumer consumption for continued growth. As a result, many products have be produced with an accelerated planned obsolescence to instill the notion on the consumer that they must purchase the next version of a product because it is better than the previous one. This throw-away culture has resulted in some backlash with todays concerns over quality and environmental sustainability. Instead of buying new, mass-produced goods that are meant to be replaced, more an more people are opting to purchase hand-made goods that will last longer, or even re-purpose the goods themselves. Mobile phones have become ubiquitous among consumers, with new models appearing as quickly as every few months. Consumers are also urged to upgrade to the latest devices by their cellular carriers every 18-36 months. Sometimes this disparity between upgrade cycles reveals the true values of techno-savvy consumers, and a disconnect between consumer desire and business plans.
Trends (Mindsets)
Certain-need
In an increasingly uncertain, complex and ambiguous world, people intuitively and emotionally react with an increased need for certainty. As climate patterns become more violent, or the stock markets fall with investor uneasy, most people are demanding more certainty in daily domains as they lose control of the world around them. Increasingly people drive satisfaction from controlling what they can via personal technologies know that their garbage pickup will happen, or that their email is functioning, than ask the more difficult why and how questions of the world around them.
Signals C ompanies such as McDonalds and Nike continue to be popular due to their consistent and familiar products and experiences. S ocial networking has exploded as a means through which we can produce a more certain picture of ourselves, but has failed to offer us more insight or clarity about who we are individually. W e increasingly rely on spell checking systems that provide spelling and grammatical certainty, but do nothing to produce good writing or clear expression. C onservative governments have gained electoral ground worldwide, often on platforms of stability, simplicity and certainty.
Looking at our map of blockers and drivers from the previous section of the project, it became apparent that Shifting Creative Values and Identities were enormously influential on the paths design could take between 2011 and 2021. The outcomes of this driver were highly uncertain, but its presence in the landscape was unmistakable. This driver seemed to align with what we had already established as the mindsets of creativity and design the values that underpinned who does design, what designers do, and why they do it. In terms of polarities, we felt that this driver was most interestingly expressed in terms of the who. With our critical uncertainty established, Who participates in the design process?, we were able to express two polarized outcomes that we felt were equally plausible. Attitudes towards who does design could become more exclusive, limiting access to participants from inside of design backgrounds and disciplines; or they could become more inclusive, welcoming in new stakeholder groups, viewpoints, and creative values. Things were more complex still when it came to choosing our second axis the critical uncertainty that would be paired with our polarized take on design mindsets in the final 2x2 matrix. We felt certain that in order to maintain relevance to todays emerging design professionals, the second critical uncertainty would have to illustrate fundamental shifts within toolsets. Looking back once more at our map of drivers and blockers, we noticed a number of drivers on the far right that, came together to suggest significant changes and tension in the toolsets arena. Amazing Complexity and Connectivity, Infinite Computing, and The Era of the Interface were all drivers that illustrated the digital power and potential automation of the design process. But what was critically uncertain to us was whether or not, in building these superbly powerful tools, human creativity would be deprioritized and marginalized in the process, or whether it would be celebrated and amplified in new and amazing ways. Ultimately, it was this uncertainty that defined the second toolset axis of our matrix.
Inclusive iCreate
Drivers in Play Infinite Computing Reality Digitized The Era of the Interface Blockers in Play IP Wars Regulated Internet Toolsets in Play Parametric Meta-Design Algorithmic Design Internet of Things Bio-mimicry Mindsets in Play Expert to Participatory Aes-pectations Design Velocity
Mindsets
Automate
Amplify
Toolsets Technocracy
Drivers in Play Infinite Computing Reality Digitized Shifting Creative Values and Identities Blockers in Play Changing Economic and Cultural Leadership IP Wars Regulated Internet Toolsets in Play Parametric Meta-Design Algorithmic Design Asian Engineers Mindsets in Play Academic Drift Design Velocity Anti-DT Sentiment
Exclusive
You will notice that the main character in each scenario is not, as you might have assumed, an emerging design professional, as identified earlier. Instead they are characters that live at the heart of that scenarios unique combination of design mindsets and toolsets. They are manifestations of each worlds ethos, and are used to illustrate how the scenarios gravitational pull could affect the lives and opportunities of design professionals.
Mindsets
Scenarios
Scenarios
Scenarios
What was once a role defined by the quality and genius execution of a finished design, is now defined by the supply chain sourcing of components and raw materials that consumers need to finish the process together.
in most areas (some work to do in terms of creativity) and wound up where she wanted to be. But it wasnt until now, years later, that it occurred to Gavin to redesign is own sleep system, and find a personalized way to reduce his restlessness. Having rigged his bed, pillow and head with movement sensors and video cameras so he was able to identify what kinds of movements were waking him up; he discovered that his current pillow, while comfortable, was amplifying his restlessness. With those insights in hand, he submitted his data, video footage and rough pillow concept to the PlurALL network for some feedback on how he might approach the problem and design. PlurALL has grown over the past five years to be one of the worlds largest social networks, with 55% of the worlds population actively participating and contributing to the platform. PlurALL started out as a niche product and service hacking network, but exploded into the mainstream soon after the 2014 depression hit, as people started looking to repurpose and improve what they had, rather than consume more. Today, everyone is a hacker and PlurALL is the worlds creative hub, a broad-reaching and powerful expression of collective human ingenuity. Ideas and design challenges geared towards the common good (locally and globally) routinely engage the collective creativity of tens of thousands of people. As an alternative to submitting a design challenge, users can also search PlurALLs databank of more than 300,000,000 open-source designs and life hacks with no more than a rough idea in mind of topical area and design constraints. Over time PlurALL has also turned into a financial marketplace to ensure that widely used hacks are rewarded and recognized. Payment is based on an honor system to ensure the best hacks are available to anyone, but regardless of the few skipping out on reimbursal, PlurALL has become one of the wolds largest financial markets.
Scenarios
It didnt take long for big commerce to catch on to this trend, and in recent years there has been a flood of scaffold products into the marketplace. It is now popular for companies to sell unfinished versions of their products in beta, alpha, or even wireframes; leaving varying degrees of design and customization completely in the hands of consumers. Not only has this radical new design process been embraced by consumers, it has changed what it means to be a consumer products manufacturer. What was once a role defined by the quality and genius execution of a finished design, is now defined by the supply chain sourcing of components and raw materials that consumers need to finish the process together. This has further connected consumers to what goes into the products they buy, leading to strict sustainability regulations for most industries. Gavin is no exception to this trend; he has hacked his shoes, his bike, and even his PAD (personal assistive device) in ways that bond it uniquely to his body and creative process. The pillow project took only a couple weeks of discussion within the PlurALL community to result in a refined set of design constraints. After those initial rounds of divergence and convergence, Gavin sought more specific answers to questions such as What bedding companies offer the best open-source products? and What kinds of sensors will record the data we are looking for? Gavins favourite part of the process was the Darwin Session, in which 25 people helped him iterate pillow designs in a single virtual space. The process is less chaotic than most think, each person being able to sculpt their concept while observing the creative evolution of everyone elses simultaneously. As time passes, designers start to organically merge their ideas through dialogue, and a process of consensus takes place in virtual space. Usually, the designers participating in Darwin Sessions produce a few meaningfully different options. In Gavins case, after an evening over the 3D printer and a few nights of testing, he knew which pillow was the winner. Gavin hopes his pillow will receive an editorial profile on PlurALL, much like his contribution to the highway re-purposing project a few years back. With any luck, he might make some extra cash as well.
Scenarios
Scenarios
Design Deity
Gaia is not co-operating with humanity the way it once did. Natural resources have been depleted at rates far faster than was projected ten years ago, peak oil was presumed reached three years ago, and the price has since spiked past $300 a barrel.
Many of the precious metals needed in the development of advance electronics have also become cost prohibitive, particularly gold. In addition the management and distribution of these resources has become a highly volatile political and economic issue, as all societies need these resources to innovate. The confluence of these factors along with growing climate instability has destabilized the daily lives of much of the worlds population, fundamentally changing consumption patterns and basic human needs. It is November 3rd, 2021, 7:21 am; and Aleksey Demeter is ready to take on another day. Aleksey is no ordinary citizen as the youngest member of an elite group of star designers and innovators called NEXT, his future is unlimited. Already, his designs and systems innovations have become part of the fabric of daily life for over two billion people across the globe. Ten years ago, back home in Vladivostok, Aleksey was a young but talented programmer, interested in taking gaming to the next level while dabbling as an entrepreneur and app architect. He knew he wanted the respect of his peers, but never imagined the mainstream fame or fortune he has now. Aleksey credits much of his early success to the time he spent studying complex industrial systems design at MIT. Without that experience, he never would have built KLARHET, an immersive and game-like design platform that enables the designer to maximize his creativity and capacity to absorb complex interactions via the manipulation of what Aleksey calls living prototypes.
Signposts on the Way T he majority of revenue growth for design toolmakers comes from pro markets and tools. M argins continue to rise on software products even as open-source erodes some marketshare. D isruptive innovations through unconventional interfaces become more and more common (interfaces associated with gaming applied to modeling, at lower prices). T he number of headhunters/ placement agencies offering design talent continues to rise. C orporate environments continue to court young and innovative professionals, preferring attitude and vision over experience. C ollaboration between closed networks of colleagues takes place globally offices dont open up in terms of hierarchy, but high performance teams decentralize and live online. M ore and more design practice takes place in immersive virtual environments. M ore experimental user interfaces and UI metaphors begin to surface in high-end design tools.
Scenarios
KLARHET was such a disruptive design tool that it made most of the earlier platforms obsolete, along with the skillsets that older designers had spent their lifetimes honing. The death of the Design Thinking movement of the early 21st century can be traced back precisely to the release of KLARHET, with its emphasis on creative and technical genius at the control room of the design process. Since its release, Alekseys genius has been praised globally, but much of the incumbent design community has shrunken away and splintered into distinct subcultures. Some of these designer communities embrace Alekseys platform, while others reject it altogether; opting for a more inclusive and collaborative process that requires much lower levels of technical expertise to participate. But these designers are in a shrinking minority. While some in the industry despise him, the public at large cant help but love Aleksey for the systems and tools he has offered the average person, to help him adapt to the uncertainty of daily life. Coping with high levels of uncertainty while managing limited physical and financial resources is a fundamental human need in 2021. And while many aspects of daily life have evolved in positive ways to work with less and consume more sustainably, consumer expectations for brilliant design have only increased. In addition, complex tools like KLARHET have further distanced consumers from the design process. While in general there is great awareness of and appreciation for the creativity of figures like Aleksey, only very exclusive communities of designers have the training, skill or talent needed to participate in the design process at his level. Aleksey and a surprisingly small design elite are now responsible for most of the worlds products, services, manufacturing processes and even government policies. Aleksey finally gets out of bed, only nine minutes before a global design collaboration session. He quickly throws some clothes on and prints his favourite breakfast Russian pancakes. This time he adjusts the parameters to create bite-sized miniature versions of his usual breakfast, with sour cream on the inside so he can pop them in his mouth for a burst of flavour during the meeting. Done in five minutes, and tasty.
Scenarios
Aleksey runs over into the other room and boots up KLARHET in preparation he never fails to feel a great sense of pride every time he does. Today he has hand-picked a team of experts who will be working with him to perfect the inter-train at speed passenger transition system for Rio de Janeiros mass transit retrofit. Those involved with Alexsey on the project recognize the privilege they share; they will be given a chance to interact and collaborate with one of the most creative and ingenious people on the planet. Aleksey starts the meeting with a simple introduction, the room darkens and then fills with a holographic simulation of the at-speed transition systems passenger experience a living prototype. From a force feedback mechanism in the floor, he senses a small jolt as the trains connect immediately zooming into the 3D schematic of the coupling mechanism as it is working, before manipulating its design in real-time. Aleksey collaborates with the project team for hours, replaying the coupling sequence over and over until the jolt disappears completely from the feedback charts of the trains simulated passengers. After all, it has to be perfect.
The confluence of factors along with growing climate instability has destabilized the daily lives of much of the worlds population, fundamentally changing consumption patterns and basic human needs.
Scenarios
Scenarios
Technocracy
Driven by economic forces of efficiency, automation and centralized manufacturing have become the norm in 2021. Everdecreasing project timelines and demands for lower operating costs have benefited a few large corporations with the capital to finance mass operations.
To maintain a degree of economic certainty, many countries neighbouring affluent nations have formed alliances. Expanding from the original agreement, NAFTA swells to include South America, resulting in the Americas Free Trade Alliance (AFTA). The former adversaries of the European Union and Russia, along with many former Soviet Union countries, band together. The continent of Africa operates almost as one large nation; as do Australia and most of East Asia; with China, India, Australia, and Japan dominating the group. Its 7:21 am on Wednesday November 3rd, and Nigel Smith is momentarily distracted by the hum of window shutters automatically rising in his office. The overhead light in his room slowly dims as natural light begins to flood in. Increases in population density have meant that the urban landscape is now covered with mass-density buildings. Smith is one of the lucky few in New Jersey to have access to direct daylight out his window, rather than another buildings shadow. Smith continues his online conversation with a project director in Hong Kong and an engineer in Australia. Contracted to their firm the day before, the three are building a new bridge from Kowloon to Hong Kong Island. Smiths firm, Travind Inc., manages most of the large building projects in AFTA and Asia by controlling the labour and heavy industry factories in those regions. If a large structure needs to be built, Travind will oversee every aspect of its design. The size and scale of Travind has allowed the corporation to cross the Americas and Asian trade zones, and it has continued to grow its size by
Signposts on the Way D esign toolmakers investment in research and development continues to rise along with margins, as user numbers fall. S tandards around the adoption of creative tools begin to resemble 1990s attitudes towards productivity tools. A ll managerial positions require an understanding of high-end design tools. M ore and more design toolmakers are acquired by large global conglomerates. T hey either act as a creative services department, or are bought for technological IP. C reative software presents more choices than canvasses. Template choosers become the dominant user experience trope/design pattern. I conic designers designers begin to leave their posts at creative consultancies and their own firms for positions at non-designerly global conglomerates. Karim Rashid goes to work for Foxconn, and Carl Bass leaves Autodesk for Northrup-Grumman.
Scenarios
buying competitors, or beating them on cost and speed of iterative testing. Utilizing a specialized network of interconnected superfactories, Travind is able to operate as if all its fabrication facilities were a single building, despite their relative distances. Travinds HyperBuild software platform not only enables all employees to be interconnected, but also allows a factory in northern China to signal and remotely control a factory in Peru, timing the fabrication of parts in real-time. Clients are also able to make changes to their parts and have updates sent instantly across the network to an available factory. Such a semantic connection meant that Travind was able to reduce its timelines to half of its competitors. To maximize profits on the bridge project, Smith recommends using Travinds super-size factories, labour and machinery from northern China and Mongolia to build sections of the bridge, before its pieces are transported south to Hong Kong, where they will be assembled. The bridge will be used by heavy industry transports only, so the engineer in Canberra feels that any aesthetic quality to its design will be extravagant. Smith disagrees; considering the size of the bridge, abandoning aesthetic iteration and moving forward on a purely function design would result in an enormous eyesore. The project director in Hong Kong decides that licensing fees and the breakneck four-month timeline will ultimately drive any engineering and design decisions. Cost of the Kowloon-Hong Kong Island bridge is not only determined by materials and labour, but also by user licensing fees. With information industry consolidation and the advent of the semantic Enset computer system, all engineering worldwide is now controlled by the Richard Murray Corporation (RMC). Enset has greatly simplified engineering by allowing almost any user to (rather simply) input the desired world location, type, and use of structure into an end-user application. Enset automatically does 99% the engineering calculations based on its vast database of information. Engineers and designers the world over fight for the right to receive exclusive training on the suite, and its uniform interface across versions and languages is the stuff of experience design legend. The per-user cost of Enset is extremely high, but it has become a required tool. Partially because most engineers worldwide now work for RMC. For an additional fee, users may also select from a template gallery of aesthetically exotic but parametrically certified structures. Otherwise, the Enset system will automatically determine the structures appearance based on up-to-the-minute costs of materials and labour.
Scenarios
Smith considers for a moment the project directors decision not to collaborate on any design ideas for the bridge, but decides that it would be selfish of him to push for a more aesthetically-pleasing result. After all, he does not have the required credentials to determine what looks good, compared to the specialists at RMC. In this era, professions are tightly regulated and no one steps outside of their bounds. Moving on, Smith addresses the topic of his own firms project budget. While there will be costs involved in the transportation of components, from the licensing of vehicles and route surcharges from Asia-Transport Air, the costs should be offset by the lower costs of manufacturing in northern China. Asia-Transport has built and controls all of the main transportation systems in Asia. Their complex traffic analysis system, VelSys, along with their interconnected and driverless smart vehicles, allows AsiaTransport to move an extremely large amount of industrial traffic quickly and efficiently, just as the Hong Kong-Kowloon bridge will. For additional fees, VelSys is also able to connect directly with Travinds HyperBuild system to maximize the efficiency of moving complicated parts between manufacturing and the build site. Its now 7:53 am, and the meeting ends. Smith puts down his tablet and looks out his office window to the street below. The crowded streets are bustling with people entering into the Travind office complex from various directions. Smith moves onto the next task at hand and considers if he should go to the Chinese restaurant in his building for lunch.
Scenarios
Scenarios
iCreate
The move from Photoshop filters and PowerPoint templates to automated computational systems for everything from home renovation to policy development seemed like it happened overnight.
Some were flabbergasted when the removal of human control over global markets in 2015 resulted in a dramatic turnaround of the global economy in just a few years, but scientists had warned all along that humans werent capable of managing complex feedback loops. Sustainability and humanist values are enjoying an unprecedented global surge, so its hard to complain too much, regardless of who (or what) is pulling the strings. Its November 3rd, 2021, 7:21 am. Jessica Hilbert is running late. Shes got a full day of work ahead of her, optimizing the algorithms behind the latest generation of experience design tools in tandem with teams working on cultural attractions in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Its a project that would have been inconceivable to her a decade earlier, but new technologies have made it relatively easy for her to rise to a position of prominence in the design toolset service industry. In spite of all the ways technology has streamlined the design process in 2021, things are still busy at home. Jessica would once have brought in a team of architects and interior decorators to consult about her kitchen renovation, but with a few quick swipes she captures the room using the light field camera in her phone. A detailed 3D model, complete with rich 4K textures, is instantly transferred to NuLook, an open-source app and cloud service that analyzes the quantitative and qualitative parameters of the Hilbert kitchen against the familys use patterns and a collage of images that Jessica and her husband generated. The result, ready in just under a minute, is an interactive database of over 50,000 possible kitchens, each one different from the others and rendered in stunning detail. Her eye is caught by a bright round-cornered option, its design anchored around a trio of sculptures miniature recreations of those in a family photo from a 2012 trip to Mexico.
Signposts on the Way D esign toolmakers bring higher-end parametric modeling and generative design tools to consumer markets through mass distribution channels. N umerous experiments along the road to user-friendly parametric design tools are sold in beta, much to the chagrin of customers who find them hard to use but who are expected to provide feedback on the app as part of their EULA. S keumorphism goes wild in terms of mass market and high-end interfaces elements in the interfaces of design software that were the result of necessity in previous-generation tools are now included as elegant flourishes for the sake of familiarity. P roduction values associated with user-generated content on social networks and sites such as YouTube and Vimeo continue to rise, often matching the quality of many highend professional creations. T he word template begins to show up attached to everything from home renovations to communities, not just in PowerPoint anymore. C ontinued growth in the sale of Post-PC devices, at the expense of traditional PCs.
Scenarios
She moves her fingers over the features of the design, and various costs, accessibility and environmental certifications, and links to equitable vendors are presented. Jessicas five-year-old daughter Chan is in the other room, screaming in broken Mandarin at the Paint-Like-Me app on her tablet as it struggles to customize thousands of open-content art history lessons into one just right for her. NuLook picks up on the tantrum, briefly confused by the presence of another language, and instantly switches the interface on Jessicas phone into a swirl of Chinese characters. Jessica sighs. These new tools of design may be inclusive, but they can be frustrating as hell when your kid is a different kind of artistic genius (in a different language) every three months. And this is only the beginning. In an era of opensource education, Chans curricula and diploma are as likely to be influenced by her family members, future global competitors, and Global Happiness Index score as by grades on her final exams. Jessica forwards the winning kitchen design to her husband, on a business trip in Tianjin, after choosing from a few templates and inscribing a personal message on a miniature notepad on the designs virtual countertop. She receives a confirmation message seconds later the design has been printed from biodegradable polymers on the rapid prototyping machine in her husbands hotel room, and will be gift-wrapped and waiting for him when he gets back from his meeting. Its a rainy and cold morning, but Jessica still enjoys walking to work through her prototype community north of Toronto. Elegantly swooping ramps and arches like designs out of a fantasy film bracket the main entrances of the towns historic structures; for energy efficiency, and also to ensure accessibility for an increasingly aged and disabled population. These futuristic add-ons were the only way to ensure compliance with 2019s IHFO-900X human factors standards, but no one could have expected their longterm benefits. Optimizing for inclusive delight on the scale of a century had presented the algorithmic urban planning software with scarcely a few hours of challenge by preserving the beauty and diversity of 19th and 20th century architecture, the system forecasted a 45.3% drop in violence and discontent over the first four decades alone. Jessica hoped to see the integration costs (and ethical hurdles) of these smart planning systems brought down in the coming years and that their benefits would soon be rolling out across the developing world. Many of the employees at Jessicas design toolset service firm speak basic English, or none at all. Each person interacts with
Scenarios
their projects and information channels through an interface of their unconscious choice, specifically tuned to account for the quality of their eyesight, attention span, and mother tongue. The Always Inclusive Act of 2017 has resulted in tremendous changes in the way that employers and employees consider accessibility. The professional workflows of many designers are now optimized for finding the right questions for these automated systems, so that they might evolve and spin off appropriate design processes, routines, and metrics of evaluation based on widely agreed-upon human rights and extensive usability legislation. More and more project work is streamlined, copy-edited, and presented to global clients through software suites that improve diction, articulate the works value in hundreds of possible languages, and generate visualizations that can be tweaked to resonate with dozens of different aesthetic cultures. Jessica sometimes gets a nagging feeling that she isnt as creative as she used to be, but then again, the staggering rate at which computers decision-making abilities are increasing means that her firm can take in dozens of times more creative work than it would once have been able to. As Jessica nestles down within her desk to start the days work, a message from her husband pops up on the screen: Got your kitchen design. Its so creative, and exactly what we need! Cant decide who I love more my wonderful wife, or the algorithms at NuLook.
Professional workflows of many designers are now optimized for finding the right questions for these automated systems, so that they might evolve and spin off appropriate design processes.
Signposts
In each of the preceding scenarios a unique blend of drivers, blockers and trends were expressed. These components were blended in such a way as to create an internal logic for each scenario.
This internal logic represents an attempt at connecting the potential evolution of key drivers, blockers and trends over the next ten years in a way that could logically lead to the world described in each scenario. A possible progression of events that culminate in the internal logic of our scenarios is represented below by a series of signposts that will help you as the emerging designer notice, appreciate and act in the face of the real worlds actual evolution hopefully enabling you to strategically influence your career in a way that moves you towards your desired future.
Implications
These four possible futures result from different interactions between forces at work in the world of design today, and they allowed us to explore some dramatic challenges and opportunities for emerging design professionals.
But in many ways, the scenarios are themselves just dramatic creative expressions. While they are founded upon complex interactions between driving forces, in order to assess their value as tools for learning how to work towards a preferential future, we need to compare and contrast them with the values held and methods utilized by todays designers.
Wind-tunneling
Wind-tunneling
Wind-tunneling
Our initial stance when entering this wind-tunneling phase of the scenario learning process was to utilize a stakeholder-scenario matrix.
That process involved assessing four key stakeholders in the design profession, and attempting to gauge the operational and philosophical fit of their business ideas (the mindsets and toolsets of design) within the constraints and opportunities of each future scenario. While breaking out the core business ideas and unique value differentiators of these stakeholders; academic institutions, design advocacy groups, creative consultancies, and design toolmakers; we came to an interesting conclusion. All of these stakeholders, while institutional, themselves consisted of numerous and independent groups of stakeholders. But which stakeholder groups were common across all of them? Who is actually doing the design work at each of those institutions, and who is the decision maker when it comes to defining and engaging a career of design? We think it is the stakeholder group reading this document right now, the diverse group made up of emerging design professionals. In order to gauge the portfolio of options most relevant and appropriate for emerging design professionals, it only made sense to us to continue to rely on our set of design toolsets and mindsets, this time as strategic options for the emerging designer, the appreciation or depreciation of which would hint at the specifics of a design professionals life and strategic status in each scenario. Going down the list of design toolsets we had established, it became apparent that in order to wind-tunnel each tool, we would have to consider it both in abstract and using reference to some material manifestation. The toolset of making prototypes, for instance, was considered three ways: on the terms of the future scenario worlds we had created, in abstract as a component step of the design process articulated by Stanfords d.school, and in terms of specific technologies and methods. Specifically, we looked at prototype making as a reference to the PlurALL design network of
Wind-tunneling
The Empathic Civilization scenario, as connective tissue supporting ideation and testing in the design process, and in terms of the CNC and 3D printing tools found at universities (and increasingly, business and retail) today. This method of considering each toolset against each scenario through multiple lenses helped give us confidence and seeds for discussion during the wind-tunneling process. All of the toolsets were wind-tunneled against the scenarios this way, and then scored numerically so that we could rapidly evaluate various combinations of scenario-option fit against one another. As a group, we stopped at each step of the wind-tunneling process to ask ourselves: Does this scenario afford emerging designers the opportunity to make use of the toolset we are looking it. A scenario that generously afforded emerging designers with the opportunity to use a given toolset resulted in a green square in the wind-tunnel matrix, and two points. Scenarios that afforded less (but perhaps still some) opportunity for the use of a given toolset resulted in a yellow square, and one point. Finally, scenarios that offered little opportunity for the use of a particular design toolkit were given zero points, and marked red. We moved through the same process when considering mindsets as strategies which sets of values would be nurtured, which would be ignored or stamped-out, and which had uncertain fates in the worlds of each scenario?
Considering toolsets and mindsets as core strategies of the professional designer, we were able to efficiently determine which scenarios afforded emerging designers of today the best opportunities, and which implied an incongruity of skills and values.
scenarios
Design Deity Technocracy iCreate
mindsets
who I am I am creative I am curious I am human-centered I take risks and provoke to think in systems to integrate knowledge to iterate everything to seek genuine value to take the long view to innovate what I want Empathic Civilization
scenarios
Design Deity Technocracy iCreate
and experience maps may still exist in the visions of an exclusive 2021 at the bottom of our matrix, but it is hard to imagine that they are being used to their fullest potential. With a small and exclusive cadre of experts ruling the world of design (and the design of the world) in both scenarios, there are fewer opportunities for meaningful interaction with diverse stakeholder groups, and fewer opportunities for contemplation of the experiences of those stakeholders. Design Deitys KLARHET virtual design environment mitigates some of this tension, with its ability to use tactile prototyping and biofeedback from simulated transit passengers, but the scenario still describes a world where design is technically and academically inaccessible conducted by few, for many, from atop an ivory tower. The generation of ideas is also compromised in scenarios occupying the lower half of our matrix. Brainstorming does not figure into the world of Technocracy design professionals in that version of 2021 are more like babysitters for advanced generative design software than practitioners of craft, or direct influencers of social systems. In the rush to lower operational overhead and increase efficiency in the construction of megaprojects, Travind Inc. has sacrificed not only brainstorming in its design process but much of the problem framing human decision making process. In a world where the components of the design process dedicated to observation, definition, and ideation have been stripped out, what is left for the designer to do, who has the designer become?
of human experience in the same way (and as in Technocracy) could go smoothly or result in favourable futures. Checking your ego at the door when it comes to the tweaking of final product or service details is one thing. Skipping out on these strategic processes is quite another, and hardly seems appropriate, barring some significant advances not likely on the ten year time frame we are considering.
Exclusive design mindsets undercut your opportunity to express your own values through your work.
The fewer designers there are working on a problem, or attempting to uncover its systemic intricacies, the more difficult a meaningful and appropriate solution to that problem may be to find. While we have made an attempt to understand the mindsets of design as a concise and defined list, there are certainly values held by some designers that others might disagree with. In the worlds of Design Deity and Technocracy, design is a creative practice engaged in by only a privileged minority. In spite of the best of intentions, just how often might those privileged few misconstrue the values and viewpoints of others? How would it feel to wake up one morning in 2021 to realize that the world of design, which once held the promise of inclusive creativity, had transformed into a world run by the proverbial 1%? How much potential innovation and ideation would be lost by limiting the design world to viewpoints and values held by a prestigious or seemingly all-knowing minority? How much imagination imagination and creative expression would we stifle by limiting participation in the design process and acquisition of a creative identify? Can we really afford a future where the so-called 99% are stuck on one side of a socio-economic divide, as well as a creative one?
Exclusive design mindsets undercut your ability to find meaningful and gainful employment.
This implication to the designers of today is simple as can be the more exclusive attitudes towards design are in the future, the harder it is going to be to find work. As trends indicating a more designerly public continue to make their presence known, and collaboration becomes more of the norm across academic disciplines and industries, design has an opportunity to enter a growth phase, not a recession. Moving towards a more exclusive design mindset is near impossible without a dramatic and explicit curtailing of collaborative creative and analytical strategies, and public interactions with designed products as well as the processes that generated them. The design students and emerging professionals of today represent a generation inspired by product design, and also inspired to improve that process. Creating a more meaningfully integrated, sustainable, and valuable world in 2021 requires bringing more ideas and creative approaches to the design world today, not fewer. Keeping these implications of a world built on more exclusive attitudes towards who does design in mind is important. But whats more necessary is the development of strategies that help you todays students and emerging design professionals build on the mindsets and toolsets that will support you, and amplify your creative potential as you strive to bridge the realms of imagination and innovation through your work.
Moving towards a more exclusive design mindset is near impossible without a dramatic and explicit curtailing of collaborative creative and analytical strategies.
It is important to remember that even the futures that appear bright, shiny, and laden with opportunity come with their own significant challenges and systemic shifts.
In iCreate, for instance, the role of the professional designer is challenged through the emergence of mass-market creative tools utilizing advanced algorithmic generation of designs. Jessica Hilbert even considers moving forward with a renovation of her kitchen based on the inputs of these tools alone, rather than through employing an expensive and increasingly out-of-date contractor and interior designer. In The Empathic Civilization, Gavin Sinclair relies on is own design know-how and turns to a design-driven social network to solve his sleeping problems with a new pillow concept, rather than to the shelves of a retailer or even the online catalogue of a high-end and human-centric design shop.
The results of our wind-tunneling process show that these two scenarios residing in the top half of the matrix present opportunities for the designers of tomorrow to utilize and evolve the toolsets and mindsets that are valued today, but the main difference between the worlds of these scenarios and the world of today is sheer numbers.
In inclusive worlds where design professionals have their values, tools, and tastes matched by an increasingly savvy public, they face challenges as severe as those faced in worlds where design exists as an exclusive fiefdom of a discipline, if they are to maintain cultural and strategic relevance. When suggesting strategies that help todays design students and emerging professionals adapt to possible shifts on the 10-year timeframe, it is important to remember that even the futures that appear bright, shiny, and laden with opportunity come with their own significant challenges and systemic shifts.
Strategies
Strategies
Taking into account the implications derived from our wind-tunneling process, three strategies available to the emerging designer took shape.
The first two of these strategies (Build Your Own Tools and Drop Out of School) are focused on helping the emerging designer chart a course for an inclusive design culture, and maintain creative and strategic relevance upon arrival. Importantly, we feel that both of these strategies will help set the designer up for success in both iCreate (where design tools for all risk marginalizing human creativity) and The Empathic Civilization (where human creativity is celebrated, but everyone is a designer). The third strategy (Jailbreak Design) is to be considered and employed in the interim in the event that design moves meaningfully closer to a exclusive culture. This strategy is framed as a higher risk all-in attempt to rescue the design values and roles we currently advocate for from the grip of either Design Deity or Technocracy. Therefore, it should be consulted carefully and strategically.
Strategies
Inclusive
1
Automate Toolsets
2
Amplify Toolsets
3
Exclusive Mindsets
The Future of Human Creativity in Design 87
Mindsets
Strategies
Strategies
The Goal: To help you see the importance of building tools and processes that accurately reflect an inclusive design mindset, your strategic role in the process as a designer, and the values you desire to express through your work.
Why do it?
Both inclusive scenarios for designs future create new and exciting opportunities for the emerging designer, but they do so while simultaneously raising the bar. Both scenarios require individual designers to apply new kinds of creative and strategic leadership within their domain, one that has become a shared and integrated component of mainstream culture. To do this, designers will need to be deeply connected to the development of the tools, platforms and processes that create shared design experiences. Increasingly, the role of designers will be to re-design design. Along the way, emerging designers will be challenged by massmarket tools and toolmakers trying to do exactly the same thing. It is up to individual designers to define and build new tools, when the ones available to them through commercial channels do not adequately reflect their values. We believe that the emerging designer should take inspiration from mass-market tools, without being enslaved by their version of designs processes and values.
Strategies
Learn from the successes of global conglomerates, but hold yourself to standards defined out of your own values and mindset. Critical to the success of this meta-designerly activity will be the designers efforts to engage relevant and diverse stakeholders. Big commercial toolmakers have the luxury of avoiding casual users entering into prolonged learning curves, instead concentrating efforts on fast-learning experts and wizards. It will be the responsibility of tomorrows designers to avoid the pitfalls of institutional approaches to innovation that, by their very nature, ignore the values of the casual user, and resist the cultivation of open source communities. Disruptive innovation is only possible when you bring greater overall value to your users or customers than was previously available. Either find a way to drop the price (working in open-source distributed communities of volunteers), or concentrate on features that you know are crucially important to your user communities at the expense of those that you suspect arent important (improving features people use, removing the ones that add QA complications without saving anyones day).
Strategies
However, we also recognize an inherent tension in this recommendation. On one hand, we recommend designers concentrating their efforts on re-designing design: on building tools uniquely suited to their values, vision, and the task at hand. On the other hand, we recognize that designers have specialities, and not all of them are in programming, user interface modeling, or prototype testing. But these two extremes focusing on the development of tools, focusing on skillsets relevant to a particular craft are not mutually exclusive. What we suggest is that designers adopt a new entrepreneurial orientation to their tools, along with an increased level of comfort delegating creative control and appreciating the creativity of their users.
With every tool you use, ask yourself questions about where it came from, and how its palette of opportunities were shaped and guided by a person or teams perception of the toolsets and mindsets of design. Do you think that person or teams perceptions are aligned with your own, or in contrast to them?
With every step you take towards the design of your own tools, ask yourself questions about the people who will be using them in their own design practice. Will these users want to add on to your tool, or express themselves uniquely within it? Will they assume that you understand their take of the core values of design, or will they challenge you to understand their perception? Ask yourself at every step if you feel that your tool opens up new creative opportunities for your users, or strips them away and replaces them with halls of simplified choices. Most importantly, instead of asking yourself these questions about your users... ask them.
Strategies
Strategies
The Goal: To help you develop, express, and apply your creative potential through the exploration of diverse, unconventional, and personally valuable sources of knowledge.
Why do it?
Because even though your parents may have told you that you could be whatever you dreamed you wanted to be, most academic institutions will find a way to adapt that vision into a particular degree attached to a particular set of compulsory credits. Because that feeling you might have had once or twice when learning a powerful lesson from a friend, a family member, an enemy, or a strategic partner is only the tip of the iceberg. Maybe even because some of the brightest entrepreneurs, whether youre a Mac or a PC, didnt see that it was necessary to complete a degree in order to change the world. Because although the worlds in iCreate or
Strategies
The Empathic Civilization may seem like they offer nothing but opportunities for designers, those opportunities will come in the context of competition against waves of innovators new to the design world, but unafraid of participating in, or even leading it. While this strategy may seem like an easy option to dismiss, given the tension it creates between current cultural norms and the futures we have described, there is more to it than meets the eye. To be clear, the drop out of school strategy is not about dropping out of learning entirely, but about dropping in to what matters to you and your desired future. It is about amplifying your creative potential with the best tools and platforms available from the Khan Academy, to an internship, to the TEDx conferences. It is about balancing experience-based learning and academic grounding in a world where institutional systems are not really set up to do both well. It is about seeing problems and needs within society and industry alike, and proactively plotting the shortest distance between you and a role that meets those needs. One way to reframe what your parents may have told you as a child, that you could do anything you set your mind to, is that you are the person who should do the things that you truly believe need doing. While the inclusive worlds of iCreate and The Empathic Civilization may seem preferable to 2011 in the minds of todays emerging design professionals, they are also highly competitive spaces. Simply put, there is no time to waste developing skills that do not actively build your long-term value and desired future.
Strategies
We opened this journey by pointing to an important signal; the IBM CEO survey that, in 2010 for the first time, identified creativity as the most important competency in navigating todays complex, ambiguous and fast-paced global marketplace. While this signal is an important high water mark in our societys relationship with creativity, for the purposes of emerging designers it should not obfuscate the real challenges ahead. Rather than illustrating an emerging opportunity, this surveys results highlight a critical challenge and gap between designers and industry. Yes, mainstream industry is increasingly acknowledging the need for creativity, but industry does not define the term in the same way as designers; and in practice, industry has few functional systems to help identify and value creativity appropriately. To ensure that selfdirected leaning pays off for the emerging designer, it is imperative that these open experiences be about more than entrepreneurial experiments, collaborative problem solving, and innovative projects emerging designers must also find new ways to visualize and talk about their creativity.
To be clear, the drop out of school strategy is not about dropping out of learning entirely, but about dropping in to what matters to you and your desired future.
Strategies
Strategies
Jailbreak Design
In the event that design mindsets or toolsets start to take a sharp turn towards the exclusive, emerging designers need an emergency switch, a secret weapon for turning the tide, a strategy with the potential to inspire collective action and bring about meaningful change. Jailbreaking design is intended to be that rally cry. You might be familiar with the process of jailbreaking an iPhone unlocking its software security system so that you can install applications and services that deviate from Apples App Store guidelines, or that the companys teams of application screeners deem inappropriate. While the specifics of jailbreaking design are dependent on the ways in which exclusive attitudes towards design are manifested, we feel that the signs and signals for action will be clearly present as gut feelings in the hearts of emerging designers the result of a tension or incompatibility between designers values and those implied by the tools and systems available to them. In both of our scenarios exploring the reign of exclusive design mindsets; there are systems, cultures and tools that can be liberated. It will be the responsibility of the emerging designer to do that work, and to ensure that opportunities exist for designers to express their values through their practice, and through engagement in meaningful and gainful employment.
The Goal: To help you see the importance of hacking and jailbreaking the products of exclusive design attitudes that agitate your values, and limit your participation.
Why do it?
This foresight project has attempted to sensitize you as an emerging designer to the misalignment of an exclusive design culture with some of the values of design, and the challenges inherent in finding meaningful opportunities for work in futures characterized by exclusive attitudes. Arguably, we already live in (and are moving deeper into) an exclusive design culture despite values (expressed in the design community) that suggest the
Strategies
opposite. Designers have a unique role in maintaining the relevance and vibrancy of the open-source, collaborative communities and platforms that hold the potential to stir pots, and challenge giants. If you see a world emerging where only select stakeholders are participating in or have access to the design process, or where open communities are explicitly suppressed, it is your responsibility to attempt a jailbreak. We have highlighted the value and importance of creativity throughout this project. Our hope is that you will come away with an understanding of creativity as a crucial structure that brings ideas into the realm of real-world innovations. In a world where inclusivity in design is sacrificed for control or power, creativity is also dealt a serious blow. In order for creativity to thrive, we need to cultivate systems and practices that bring more voices and opinions to the table.
Strategies
Designers will need to have established a shared understanding of the signs and signals of the exclusive world they hope to avoid.
Conclusion
We have spent the last three months exploring questions around what the future of the design discipline tells us about creativity, and what future attitudes towards creativity might tell us about design.
While in many ways weve opened and unlocked more questions than we answered, we hope that you have found something useful and meaningful in the process presented in this dossier. At every step of the way; we were challenged by our colleagues and mentors to be clear and concise in presenting the definitions of nebulous terms like creativity and innovation, open-minded in our scanning of the horizon for trends and drivers shaping todays world into tomorrows, courageous yet grounded in our articulation of what those futures might look and feel like, and direct about who this work is really for. Our journey through these landscapes of change and uncertainty led us to a set of implications in response to which we have presented three (perhaps unconventional) strategies for successful adaptation. But while all three of these strategies explore the consequences of a career in design at a time when the discipline is under tremendous pressure to both perform and adapt, we felt that there was one more strategy that deserved mention in conclusion. It may seem obvious that graduate students in a program dedicated to learning in the field of strategic foresight would recommend the discipline to fellow designers and students, but we feel that there is a strong case to be made for immersing designers in the core methodologies of our program, particularly in scenario generation. While some designers see working on cool projects, travelling around the world to uncover new fads, and winning awards as the goals of their prospective careers; there are of course other kinds of rewards on the table. Choosing to become a designer in this increasing chaotic and uncertain world is as much about retreading and reaping the benefits of existing paths as it is about forging new ones. After all, if creativity is at the heart of design as we have posited, it deserves to be put at the forefront of ones philosophical approach to the discipline and career path, not just utilized in the application of window-dressing. 100 The Future of Human Creativity in Design
The methods we are learning in our MDes program at OCAD University are intended to help us cope with an ever-increasing rate of change, rather than consign ourselves to it. The hope is that these tools and mindsets will teach us how to create compelling, shared visions of our ideas, rather than trendy, incremental, and ultimately meaningless innovations. These tools are intended to help us experiment with the future, but to do so responsibly; and to aid us in understanding how bright ideas and marketable products and services are points on either side of a chasm the real challenge is in bridging them with creative thinking. The toolsets and mindsets of foresight and scenario generation are of great assistance in helping designers of all sorts sharpen creative and analytical thinking styles, and qualitative and quantitative ways of measuring impact, before bringing them together in a new and integrative fashion. This project progressed in three main stages. First, we scanned the horizon for clues as to what forces were actually shaping and reinforcing the world of the design professional, clustering those trends and drivers into herds that helped us understand the broader dynamics of the systems at work. Next, we let the trends of today and the drivers of our generation play out in a sort of pinhole camera view of the future four futures, in fact. And finally, we looked long and hard at the gaps between today and these imagined futures, trying to identify the places where emerging design professionals were set up to succeed, and others where they might be set up for significant risk and challenge. While all three of us self-identify as design professionals (at least a few hours in the day, or days of the week), we ultimately advocate inclusivity and present this project to you, the students and emerging design professionals of today. Whether you know it or not, you are poised on the edge of tremendous opportunities, and while the systemic forces shaping the world in which you live may seem impossibly large or difficult to comprehend, its important to remember that the values you embody and the tools you rely on are among the most influential of them. This project was an opportunity for the three of us to learn new methods of thinking creatively and analytically about the future, but it was also about introducing foresight and the tools of scenario generation to you using a story that you would find both relevant and engaging. Whether you work in the design of communications, images, products, or services; we hope that this brief foray into future landscapes of creativity and design has prompted you to pause, and ponder what role you could play in shaping the future of your discipline. Whether you know it or not, you are poised on the edge of tremendous opportunities, and while the systemic forces shaping the world in which you live may seem impossibly large or difficult to comprehend, its important to remember that the values you embody and the tools you rely on are among the most influential of them.
Biographies
Trevor Haldenby
While studying the history of cinema in university, Trevor began thinking critically and creatively about storytelling and technology. Since then, he has worked as Producer of Habbo Hotel, a virtual world for teens with more registered users than Twitter; and for Earth Rangers, the kid-powered biodiversity action organization. He has collaborated on the administrative and storytelling sides of numerous transmedia projects, from innovative online documentaries to award-winning installations that have broken new ground in user experience. He is a founding partner of The Mission Business, the Toronto-based collective currently producing ZED, an experiment in scenario-driven storytelling and tangible futures. Trevor has also won acclaim for his work as a visual artist. His photography has explored the worlds behind-the-scenes of the Luminato Festival, Toronto International Film Festival, Canadian Film Centre, and other high-profile social innovation leaders. His work has been featured in magazines across Canada and the United States, and one of these days, hes convinced hell find time for a gallery show. Having attended Unionville High Schools prestigious Arts York program, the Rhode Island School of Design, and the Canadian Film Centres Media Lab, Trevor is a passionate advocate for the arts in education. He is currently thinking quite a bit about the future, and completing a Master of Design program in Strategic Foresight and Innovation at OCAD University. Originally native to the marshes of Toronto and York Region, he now migrates regularly across his home range of Southern Ontario.
Kelvin Kwong
Originally a graduate of OCADUs Communication and Design program, Kelvin returned to school to complete OCADUs Strategic Foresight and Innovation graduate program. A creative director with the Publicis Groupe for ten years, Kelvin started his own practice in 2006 and has worked on brand and communication strategies with clients such as Barrick, BMO Financial Group, Canadian Cancer Society, Cathay Forest Products, Canadian Womens Hockey League, Clemson Eye, Hotel Victoria, Kinross Gold, Migao, ProArteDanza, St. Lawrence Centre for the Arts, Somewhereness, Wajax, and Yogalicious. Kelvins work has been recognized by the Advertising and Design Club of Canada, Applied Arts, AR100, the National Post, NUARs and RGD Ontario.
Martin Ryan
I grew up on the Sunshine Coast, just outside of Vancouver, B.C. the collaborative project of an Architect, Costume Designer, Artist and Opera Singer. I spent most of my childhood exploring the wilderness in my backyard, and to my parents dismay, dismantling and unsuccessfully rebuilding most of my toys. My academic roots are found at the University of British Columbia, where I graduated with an Honors B.Comm in Marketing. Always inspired by the intersection of economic, social and environmental progress, I began my career at JWT Ethos a consulting firm specializing in social marketing and corporate social responsibility. Building on this experience, I joined Canadas not-for-profit sector to manage Kids Help Phones Corporate Partnerships, while trying my hand at political policy development in my spare time. In 2007, I joined in-sync, now a strategic arm of the Publicis Groupe. As a Strategist at in-sync, I work in consultancy with Fortune 500 companies on a wide variety of innovation, consumer insight and brand strategy projects. During my tenure, I have immersed myself in subjects such as: our connection to sparkling beverages, the future of pet care, what motivates fundraising and charitable giving, human mobility, healthcare policy, and the experience of many different illnesses. Currently, I am excitedly pursuing a Master of Design at OCAD University in the area of Strategic Foresight and Innovation. I am also proud to be a founding member of Canadas first Awesome Foundation for the Arts and Sciences (Google it :), and the winner of the the 2011 Rotman Design Challenge. My interests and inspirations are certainly very diverse, but I find that they often return to a fundamental desire to actively participate in the creation, and re-creation of the world that can be. It is my hope that along the way I find challenging opportunities to help transform once depreciated or ordinary human experiences and systems, into ones that are both appreciated and extraordinary.
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