Transition Handbook

Transition Handbook free edit version is released under GFDL and Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike. By ontributin! to or editin!
these "a!es you a!ree to release your #ork under these terms.
The Transition Handbook - free edit version

$el ome to a rather e% itin! ne# venture for the Transition movement. Sin e the Transition Handbook #as "ublished in &ar h '(()* it has been a very "o"ular !uide to the idea* no# bein! "ublished in a number of lan!ua!es as the Transition movement s"reads around the #orld. As these ideas are tried and tested in many ultures* onte%ts and different s ales* the idea is to invite those #ho have a tually been e%"erimentin! #ith it on the !round to re#rite the book. $e invite you to ontribute your #isdom* e%"erien e* su esses* failures and insi!hts to the se ond edition of The Transition Handbook* #ritin! on the se tions you feel you have insi!hts to add. So* "eak oil buffs and systems thinkers #ill be dra#n to +art ,ne* those #ith a ba k!round in "sy holo!y* addi tion and the "sy holo!y of han!e to +art T#o* and those #ith "ra ti al e%"erien e #ith a tive Transition initiatives to +art Three. Althou!h - ./ob Ho"kins0 retain the editorial overvie#* the idea is that this be omes a truly ollaborative venture* a true refle tion of the urrent state of this e%traordinary movement. So* !et #ritin!. Let1s #rite the most seminal and most useful book in "rint for a #orld in Transition. - look for#ard to readin! your thou!hts.... See Cate!ory2The Transition Handbook for all "a!es on the #iki so far. +lease feel free to edit3 -t is very easy and strai!htfor#ard. 4ou an he k the #iki !uide if you need* but it1s okay to 5ust li k edit* and edit the te%t.
Transition Handbook free edit version is released under GFDL and Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike. By ontributin! to or editin! these "a!es you a!ree to release your #ork under these terms.
Table of Contents
Fore#ord by /i hard Heinber! -ntrodu tion TA6TAL-S-6G GL-&+S7S ,F /7S-L-76C7 Part 1: The Head - Why peak oil and climate change mean that small is inevitable Chapter 1: Peak oil and climate change - The two great oversights of our times

$hat is +eak ,il8 Some key indi ations that #e are nearin! the "eak. +eak #hen8 Climate han!e. The !reenhouse effe t. -s there su h a thin! as a safe limit8 The intert#inin! of "eak oil and limate han!e. Can "eak oil en!a!e "eo"le more effe tively than limate han!e8 The ontradi tions of the Hirs h /e"ort. 7valuatin! "ossible #ays for#ard. $hy a future #ith less ener!y ends u" lookin! some#hat inevitable. $hy 17ner!y Des ent18 $hat is resilien e8 The three in!redients of a resilient system. Life before oil #asn1t all bad. The ake analo!y. 7 hoes of a resilient "ast. Can #e learn anythin! useful from Britain1s last 1#artime mobilisation18 /elo alisation. The dan!ers of lin!in! to the illusion of lar!e s ale. To"-do#n or bottom-u"8 $here does !overnment fit in8
Chapter : The view from the mountain-top

Chapter !: Why rebuilding resilience is as important as cutting carbon emissions

Chapter ": Why small is inevitable

#umming up Part 1: The oil age draws to a close Part : The Heart - Why having a positive vision is crucial Chapter $: How peak oil and climate change affect us - %Post-petroleum stress disorder%

Clammy "alms or nausea and mild "al"itations A sense of be#ilderment and unreality
An irrational !ras"in! at unfeasible solutions Fear ,utbreaks of nihilism and9or survivalism Denial 7%uberant o"timism The 1- al#ays told you so1 syndrome An intervie# #ith Dr Chris :ohnstone The F/A&7S model $hy visions #ork. Ca"tain Future - the #i;ard of s ien e. <isions of abundan e. Food and farmin! &edi ine and health 7du ation 7 onomy Trans"ort 7ner!y Housin! The =insale 7ner!y Des ent A tion and ho# it ame about. Four lessons from the =insale +ro5e t. /efle tions on the =insale "ro ess. $hat1s ha""enin! no# in =insale8
Chapter &: 'nderstanding the Psychology of Change

Chapter (: Harnessing the power of a positive vision

Chapter ): * vision for +!+ - looking back over the transition

Chapter ,: -insale - a first attempt at community visioning

#umming up Part Part !: The Hands - .oving from ideas to action: e/ploring the Transition model for inspiring local resilience-building Chapter 1+: The Transition concept

The "hiloso"hi al under"innin!s. Si% "rin i"les that under"in the Transition model. The +ro5e t Su""ort +ro5e t on e"t. -ssues of s ale. The interfa e bet#een Transition -nitiatives and lo al "oliti s. The seven 1Buts1. The T#elve Ste"s of Transition.
Chapter 11: How to start a Transition 0nitiative

Chapter 1 : The first year of Transition Town Totnes

First* a bit of ba k!round Then* a bit of "rehistory Transition +en#ith. Transition Falmouth. Transition To#n Le#es. Transition ,ttery St &ary. Transition Bristol. Transition To#n Bri%ton. Transition Forest of Dean.
Chapter 1!: The viral speed of the Transition concept

#ome closing thoughts A++76D-C7S A""endi% >2 The ,il De"letion ?uestionnaire A""endi% '2 :ohn Croft1s 1Four sta!es that any "ro5e t #ill !o throu!h1 A""endi% @2 Assi!nment Sheet - 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan A""endi% A2 The 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan +ro ess A""endi% B2 Ho# to be ome a Transition -nitiative A""endi% C2 A sam"le "ress release A""endi% D2 Transition Trainin! /eferen es /7S,E/C7S -6D7F
0ntroduction
G ba k to table to ontents
Central to this book is the on e"t of resilien e - familiar to e olo!ists* but less so to the rest of us. /esilien e refers to the ability of a system* from individual "eo"le to #hole e onomies* to hold to!ether and maintain their ability to fun tion in the fa e of han!e and sho ks from the outside. This book* The Transition Handbook* ar!ues that in our urrent .and lon! overdue0 efforts to drasti ally ut arbon emissions* #e must also !ive eHual im"ortan e to the buildin!* or more a urately to the rebuildin!* of resilien e. -ndeed* - #ill ar!ue that uttin! emissions #ithout resilien e-buildin! is ultimately futile. But #hat does resilien e a tually look like8 -n >II( - visited the Hun;a <alley in northern +akistan* #hi h until the o"enin! of the =arakorum Hi!h#ay in >ID) had been almost om"letely ut off from the outside #orld. $hen - visited - kne# nothin! about "erma ulture* of the on e"t of resilien e* or even a !reat deal about food* farmin! or the environment* but - kne# #hen - arrived that this #as an e%traordinary "la e. - found a Huote in a book #hi h - read as - travelled u" to#ards Hun;a .- no lon!er remember the title02 J-f on 7arth there is a !arden of bliss* it is this* it is this* it is this.J They #ere #ords that re"layed in my head many times over my t#o #eeks in Hun;a. Here #as a so iety #hi h lived #ithin its limits and had evolved a da;;lin!ly so"histi ated yet sim"le #ay of doin! so. All the #aste* in ludin! human #aste* #as arefully om"osted and returned to the land. The terra es #hi h had been built into the mountainsides over enturies #ere irri!ated throu!h a net#ork of hannels that brou!ht mineral-ri h #ater from the !la ier above do#n to the fields #ith astonishin! "re ision. A"ri ot trees #ere every#here* as #ell as herry* a""le* almond and other fruit and nut trees. Around and beneath the trees !re# "otatoes* barley* #heat and other ve!etables. The fields #ere orderly but not re!imented. +lants !re# in small blo ks* rather than in hu!e mono ultures. Bein! on the side of a mountain* - invariably had to #alk u" and do#n hills a !reat deal* and soon be!an to feel some of the fitness for #hi h the "eo"le of Hun;a are famed. The "aths #ere lined #ith dry stone #alls* and #ere desi!ned for "eo"le and animals* not for ars. +eo"le al#ays seemed to have time to sto" and talk to ea h other and s"end time #ith the hildren #ho ran barefoot and dusty throu!h the fields. A"ri ots #ere harvested and s"read out to dry on the roofto"s of the houses* a da;;lin! si!ht in the bri!ht mountain sun. Buildin!s #ere built from lo ally-made mud bri ks* #arm in the #inter and ool in the summer. And there #as al#ays the ma5esti s"lendour of the mountains to#erin! above. Hun;a is Huite sim"ly the most beautiful* tranHuil* ha""y and abundant "la e - have ever visited* before or sin e. At that time - #as an artist* and s"ent my days #ith sket hbook in hand* #anderin! the fields* lanes and terra es* da;;led by the li!ht and olour* s"endin! many hours 5ust #orkin! on one dra#in! in an ultimately futile attem"t to try to re"resent the beauty of #hat #as in front of me. -f .at that time0 Hun;a #ere to be ut off from the #orld and the !lobal e onomy1s hi!h#ays of
tru ks "a ked #ith !oods* it #ould have mana!ed fine. -f there #ere a !lobal e onomi do#nturn* or even a olla"se* it #ould have had little im"a t on the Hun;a <alley. The "eo"le #ere resilient too* ha""y* healthy and #ith a stron! sense of ommunity. - do not intend to romanti ise or idealise it* but there #as somethin! - au!ht a !lim"se of #hen - #as in Hun;a that resonated #ith a dee" !eneti memory some#here #ithin me. !re# u" in 7n!land #hen the fossil fuel "arty #as in full s#in!* in a ulture easelessly tryin! to erase all tra es of resilien e and rubbishin! the very idea at every o""ortunity* "ortrayin! ountry "eo"le as stu"id* the traditional as 1old-fashioned1 and !ro#th and 1"ro!ress1 as inevitable. -n this remote valley - felt a yearnin! for somethin! - ouldn1t Huite "ut my fin!er on but #hi h - no# see as bein! resilien e2 a ulture based on its ability to fun tion indefinitely and to live #ithin its limits* and able to thrive for havin! done so. Ho#ever* even then* in >II(* thin!s #ere startin! to han!e. $hen - #as there* em"ty sa ks of nitro!en fertiliser #ere visible in the orners of some of the fields. Sa ks of ement #ere a""earin!* as #ere refined su!ary foods and fi;;y drinks. The "ro ess of underminin! that resilien e had be!un in earnest* as has ha""ened in most "arts of the #orld and ontinues at a franti "a e. - haven1t been ba k sin e* and so annot offer an u"date* but - #ould be very sur"rised if the dire tion of han!e had been fo used on the "reservation of the <alley1s ability to su""ort itself. -ndeed* from the amount of adverts on the internet for "la es sellin! 1Hun;a "rodu e1* it a""ears to have moved to#ards bein! an e%"ort-driven e onomy. For es are onver!in! very fast that make #hether #e hoose to retain and enhan e resilien e* rather than 5ust let it rumble* mu h more than 5ust a "hiloso"hi al dis ussion. -t is no lon!er 5ust a ase of #hether #e should be Huestionin! the for es of e onomi !lobalisation be ause they are un5ust* ineHuitable or a ra"a ious destroyer of environments and ultures. -nstead it is about lookin! at the A hilles heel of e onomi !lobalisation* one from #hi h there is no "rote tion other than resilien e2 its de!ree of oil de"enden y. The very notion of e onomi !lobalisation #as only made "ossible by hea" liHuid fossil fuels* and there is no adeHuate substitute for those on the s ale #e use them. The move to#ards more lo alised ener!y-effi ient and "rodu tive livin! arran!ements is not a hoi eK it is an inevitable dire tion for humanity. The Transition Handbook is more than 5ust a book of "roblems and ideas. -t is about solutions* and about the Transition model* #hi h - think may turn out to be the foundation for one of the most im"ortant so ial* "oliti al and ultural movements of the '>st entury. -1d like to !ive you a brief taste of it. -t1s a ool &ar h evenin! in the small to#n of Totnes in Devon. Around >C( "eo"le are fillin! the seats of St :ohn1s Chur h for an evenin! event alled 1Lo al &oney* Lo al Skills* Lo al +o#er1. The event is run by Transition To#n Totnes .TTT0* the E=1s first Transition -nitiative* and the evenin! itself is somethin! of an a hievement2 >C( "eo"le turnin! out to an event about e onomi s* usually a sub5e t !uaranteed to sti k "eo"le to their sofas ti!hter than su"er!lue. 7a h "erson* on arrival* is !iven a Totnes +ound* one of @(( notes "rodu ed by TTT as a "ilot to see ho# a "rinted urren y mi!ht be re eived in the to#n. ,ne side is a fa simile of an >)>( Totnes banknote* from a time #hen Totnes banks issued their o#n urren y* s"otted four #eeks before on the #all of a lo al filmmaker. As - be!in my introdu tion to the evenin!
and to the s"eaker* - invite the audien e to ea h #ave their +ounds in the air - it is Huite a si!ht. >C( "eo"le* +ound in hand* be!innin! the "o#erful 5ourney of tellin! ne# stories about money* and also about the future* its "ossibilities and their interde"enden e as a ommunity. The tellin! of stories is entral to this book. 4ou ould think of it as bein! a story in itself2 the story of the emer!en e of the Transition movement* of the most im"ortant resear h "ro5e t takin! "la e in the E= at the moment. -t !oes dee"er than that* thou!h. ,ur ulture is under"inned by various stories* ultural myths that #e all take for !ranted2 that the future #ill be #ealthier than the "resent* that e onomi !ro#th an ontinue indefinitely* that #e have be ome su h an individualisti so iety that any ommon !oals are unthinkable* that "ossessions an over ome your dis-inte!ration and la k of voi e to make you ha""y* and that e onomi !lobalisation is an inevitable "ro ess to #hi h #e have all !iven our onsent. As #e shall see* these are all stories that are "rofoundly misleadin! and indeed "ositively harmful for the hallen!es #e find ourselves fa in! faster than #e think. $e need ne# stories that "aint ne# "ossibilities* that tell us #ho #e really are and an be to!ether* that re"osition us in relation to the non-human life around us* that enti e us to vie# the han!es ahead #ith anti i"ation of the "ossibilities they hold* and that #ill* ultimately* !ive us the stren!th to emer!e at the other end into a ne#* but more nourishin!* #orld. As - stood at the front of that hall* #at hin! the room full of lau!hin!* t#inklin! "eo"le* #avin! their Totnes +ounds* - felt very moved. There is a "o#er here* - thou!ht* #hi h has remained lar!ely unta""ed. Surely #hen #e think about "eak oil and limate han!e #e should feel horrified* afraid* over#helmed8 4et here #as a room full of "eo"le #ho #ere "ositively elated* yet #ere also lookin! the t#in hallen!es of "eak oil and limate han!e sHuare in the fa e. $hat mi!ht environmental am"ai!nin! look like if it strove to !enerate this sense of elation* rather than the !uilt* an!er and horror that most am"ai!nin! invokes8 $hat mi!ht it look like if it strove to ins"ire* enthuse* and fo us on "ossibilities rather than "robabilities8 $e don1t yet kno# for sure* but the Transition movement is an attem"t to desi!n abundant "ath#ays do#n from the oil "eak* to !enerate ne# stories about #hat mi!ht be #aitin! for us at the end of our des ent* and to "ut resilien e-buildin! ba k at the heart of any "lans #e make for the future. Transition -nitiatives are not the only res"onse to "eak oil and limate han!eK any oherent national res"onse #ill also need !overnment and business res"onses at all levels. Ho#ever* unless #e an reate this sense of anti i"ation* elation and a olle tive all to adventure on a #ider s ale* any !overnment res"onses #ill be doomed to failure* or #ill need to battle "rotra tedly a!ainst the #ill or inde isions of the "eo"le. -ma!ine if there #ere a #ay of reatin! that sense of "ositive en!a!ement and ne# storytellin! on a settlement-#ide* even a nation#ide s ale. This book* even more than the first edition* is an e%"loration of that "otential* an immersion in the "ossibilities of a""lied o"timism* and an introdu tion to a movement !ro#in! so fast that by the time you read this book it #ill be lar!er still. The time for seein! !lobalisation as an invin ible and unassailable behemoth* or lo alisation as some kind of lifestyle hoi e* is over. The end of the A!e of Chea" ,il is ra"idly omin! u"on us* and life #ill radi ally han!e* #hether #e #ant it to or not. This book re"resents a ne# #ay of lookin! at #hat our future mi!ht hold* ar!uin! that by takin! a "roa tive res"onse rather than a rea tive one* #e an still sha"e and form that future* #ithin the ra"idly han!in! ener!y onte%t* in su h a #ay that it ends u" "referable to the "resent.
/ebuildin! lo al a!ri ulture and food "rodu tion* lo alisin! ener!y "rodu tion* #astin! no "eo"le* rethinkin! health are* redis overin! lo al buildin! materials in the onte%t of ;ero ener!y buildin!* rethinkin! ho# #e mana!e #aste* all build resilien e and offer the "otential of an e%traordinary renaissan e - e onomi * ultural and s"iritual. - am not afraid of a #orld #ith less onsumerism* less 1stuff1 and no e onomi !ro#th* as #e1ve kno#n it. -ndeed* - am far more fri!htened of the o""osite2 that the "ro ess #hi h took fertiliser sa ks to the most fertile fields - #ill "robably ever stand in ontinues* redu in! the ability of ommunities to su""ort themselves beyond the brief* transitory histori al interlude #hen industry #as able to turn natural !as into a fertiliser and #hen the ar #as kin!. This is not a book about ho# dreadful the future ould beK rather it is an invitation to 5oin the in reasin!ly #hole "eo"le in hundreds of ommunities around the #orld #ho are takin! the ste"s to#ards makin! a nourishin! and abundant future a reality. /ob Ho"kins Dartin!ton* '(()
Part 1: The Head - Why peak oil and climate change mean that small is inevitable
J-t is Huite likely that the time interval before the !lobal "eak o urs #ill be briefer than the "eriod reHuired for so ieties to ada"t themselves "ainlessly to a different ener!y re!ime.J /i hard Heinber! JAny intelli!ent fool an make thin!s bi!!er* more om"le%* and more violent. -t takes a tou h of !enius - and a lot of oura!e - to move in the o""osite dire tion.J - Albert 7instein J- feel it is my duty* !iven the so ial and e onomi haos "eak oil #ill undoubtedly "rodu e* to sti k very losely to defensible assum"tions. -f you ask me #hether - "ersonally think #e1ll make it to '(>(* my ans#er is probably not. /andom fa tors and &ur"hy1s La# more or less rule out everythin! runnin! smoothly. This ho#ever is not analysis* but !ut feel and hun h. ,n the hun h basis '(() #ould be my ans#er* but '(>( my analysis.J - Chris Skrebo#ski J-t is LfreeM market fundamentalism that has rendered the !lobal a"italist system unsound and unsustainable... market fundamentalism is today a !reater threat to o"en so iety than any totalitarian ideolo!y.J - Geor!e Soros* le!endary billionaire $all Street marketeer from The Crisis of Global Ca"italism* ,"en So iety 7ndan!ered* >II) JThe hoo"la about Earth Day* like the "ious rhetori of fast-talkin! solar ontra tors and "atent-hun!ry ecological inventors* on eal the all-im"ortant fa t that solar ener!y* #ind "o#er* or!ani a!ri ulture* holisti health* and voluntary simplicity #ill alter very little in our !rotesHue imbalan e #ith nature if they leave the "atriar hal family* the multinational or"oration* the bureau rati and entrali;ed "oliti al stru ture* and the "ro"erty system untou hed.J - &urray Book hin JL&an* thatM fi kle* errati * dan!erous reature L#hoseM restless mind #ould try all "aths* all horrors* all betrayals... believe all thin!s and believe nothin!... kill for shado#y ideas more fero iously than other reatures kill for food* then* in a !eneration or less* for!et #hat bloody dream had so obsessed him.J - Loren 7iseley* &A62 TH7 L7THAL FACT,/ $e live in momentous times2 times #hen han!e is a eleratin!* and #hen the horror of #hat ould ha""en if #e do nothin! and the brillian e of #hat #e ould a hieve if #e a t an both* at times* be over#helmin!. This book is under"inned by one sim"le "remise2 that the end of #hat #e mi!ht all The A!e of Chea" ,il .#hi h lasted from >)BI until the "resent0 is near at hand* and that for a so iety utterly de"endent on it* this means enormous han!eK but that the future #ith less oil ould be "referable to the "resent* if #e "lan suffi iently in advan e #ith ima!ination and reativity. This first "art is alled 1The Head1 be ause it fo uses on the on e"ts and issues entral to the ase that #e need to be "re"arin! for a future #hi h looks very different from the "resent. -t be!ins #ith an e%"loration of "eak oil and limate han!e* the t#in drivers of the Transition on e"t and the t#o !reatest hallen!es fa in! humanity at the be!innin! of the '>st entury .headin! a lon! field of om"etitors0. - #ill attem"t to over them in as a essible a #ay as
"ossible. -t !oes on to set out the nature of the hallen!es they "resent* and #hy they so ur!ently ne essitate our rethinkin! a number of very basi assum"tions as #ell as the s ale at #hi h #e o"erate. +eak oil is dealt #ith first* and in more detail* be ause the likelihood is that you are less familiar #ith it. $hile limate han!e features #idely in the media* "eak oil has yet to re!ister as a ma5or issue* althou!h the re ent stee" rises in "ri es are startin! to han!e this. -t is im"ortant to !et u" to s"eed on an issue of su h entral im"ortan e to our future. - #ill !o on to look at #hat kind of a #orld #e ould end u" #ith if #e don1t res"ond ima!inatively to these dual hallen!es* and then set out the thinkin! and the on e"ts under"innin! Transition -nitiatives. These initiatives are an emer!in! res"onse2 in essen e* a "o#erful arbon redu tion 1te hnolo!y1 and a ne# #ay of lookin! at res"ondin! to limate han!e and "eak oil. They #ill be e%"lored in de"th as this book !oes on.
Chapter 1: Peak oil and climate change The two great oversights of our times
What is peak oil1: why it is not 2ust the last drop that matters
There are "lenty of other "eo"le better Hualified than myself to tell you about "eak oil. - have never #orked in the oil industry* am not a !eolo!ist* and other than havin! !ro#n u" in #hat is no# one of the most ra"idly de"letin! oil-"rodu in! nations in the #orld .the E=0* - have no first-hand e%"erien e of oil "rodu tion or !eolo!y. +rior to Se"tember '((A - had never heard of the on e"t of "eak oil* and had al#ays assumed that oil in our e onomy #orked in the same #ay as "etrol in the tank of a arK that #hether the en!ine #as full or almost em"ty* it #ould run e%a tly the same. - thou!ht #e #ould "otter alon! until some day in the distant future someone #ould "ut the very last dro" of oil in their ar and that #ould be that* a bit like the last truffula tree fallin! in Dr Seuss1s The Lorax. - #as later to dis over that - #as some#hat #ide of the mark* as - started to delve dee"er into this in redibly im"ortant sub5e t. For me* learnin! about "eak oil has been "rofoundly illuminatin! in terms of ho# - see the #orld and the #ay it #orks2 the "re arious nature of #hat #e have ome to see as ho# a so iety should fun tion* as #ell as elements that any ommunity res"onses #e develo" #ill need to have. Don1t take my #ord for it - read around* inform yourself. Climate han!e - an issue of !reat severity - is only one half of the storyK develo"in! an understandin! of "eak oil is similarly essential. To!ether* these t#o issues have been referred to as the 1Hydro arbon T#ins1. They are so intert#ined* that seen in isolation* a lar!e "art of the story remains untold. $ithout hea" oil* you #ouldn1t be readin! this book no#. The entralised distribution of
books #ould not have been feasible* and if you did have a o"y* it #ould be one of only a very fe# books you had* and you #ould onsider it a very "re ious "ossession indeed. - #ould not have been able to ty"e it on my la"to"* in a #arm house* listenin! to CDs. $hen you really start thinkin! about it* it1s not 5ust this book that #ould not be here. &ost thin!s around you rely on hea" oil for their manufa ture and trans"ortation. 4our furniture* entertainment* re reation* food* household a""lian es* medi ines and osmeti s are all de"endent on this mira ulous material. This is not a riti ism - it1s 5ust ho# it is for us all* and has been for as lon! as most of us an remember. -t is almost im"ossible to ima!ine anythin! else. -t is entirely understandable ho# #e !ot into this "osition. ,il is a remarkable substan e. -t #as formed from "rehistori ;oo"lankton and al!ae that overed the o eans I(->B( million years a!o* ironi ally durin! t#o "eriods of !lobal #armin!. -t sank to the bottom of the o ean* #as overed by sediment #ashed in from surroundin! land* buried dee"er and dee"er* and over time #as heated under e%treme "ressure by !eolo!i al "ro esses* and eventually be ame oil. 6atural !as #as formed throu!h similar "ro esses* but is formed more from ve!etal remains or from oil that be ame 1over ooked1 #hen buried too dee" in the 7arth1s rust. ,ne !allon of oil ontains the eHuivalent of about I) tons of the ori!inal surfa eformin!* al!al matter* distilled over millennia* and #hi h had itself olle ted enormous amounts of solar ener!y on the #aves of the "rehistori o ean. -t is not for nothin! that fossil fuels are sometimes referred to as 1an ient sunli!ht1. They are astonishin!ly ener!y-dense. - like to think of fossil fuels bein! like the ma!i "otion in Asteri% and ,beli% books. Gos inny and Eder;o1s Gaulish heroes live in the only villa!e to hold out a!ainst /oman o u"ation* thanks to a ma!i "otion bre#ed to a se ret re i"e by their druid* Getafi%. The "otion !ives them su"erhuman stren!th and makes them invin ible* mu h to the ha!rin of :ulius Caesar. Like Asteri% and ,beli%1s ma!i "otion* oil makes us far stron!er* faster and more "rodu tive than #e have ever been* enablin! our so iety to do bet#een D( and >(( times more #ork than #ould be "ossible #ithout it. Be!innin! near the moment #hen slavery #as finally !oin! out of style* #e have lived #ith this "otion for >B( years and* like Asteri% and ,beli%* have !ot used to thinkin! #e #ill al#ays have it* indeed #e have desi!ned our livin! arran!ements in su h a #ay as to be entirely de"endent on it. -t is estimated that A( litres of "etrol in the tank of a ar ontains ener!y eHuivalent to A years human manual labour. -t is no #onder that #e in the $est onsume on avera!e about >C barrels of oil a year "er a"ita - less than =u#ait* #here they use @C .#hat do they do* bathe in it80* but far more than China1s t#o* or -ndia1s less than one. The amount of ener!y needed to maintain the avera!e ES iti;en is the eHuivalent of B( "eo"le on bi y les "edallin! furiously in our ba k !ardens day and ni!ht. $e have be ome de"endent on these "edallers #hat some "eo"le refer to as 1ener!y slaves1. But #e are* it should also be a kno#led!ed* e%tremely fortunate to live at a time in history #ith a ess to amounts of ener!y and a ran!e of materials* "rodu ts and "ossibilities that our an estors ouldn1t even have ima!ined. Fi!ure > "resents one of the best resear hed !ra"hi re"resentations of #hat #e mi!ht all the 1The +etroleum -nterval1* the brief interlude of '(( years #here #e e%tra ted all of this ama;in! material from the !round and burnt it. <ie#ed in the histori al onte%t of thousands of years* it is a brief s"ike. <ie#ed from #here #e stand no#* it looks like the to" of a mountain. ,il has allo#ed us to reate e%traordinary te hnolo!ies* ultures and dis overies* to set foot
on the &oon and to "erfe t the +o" Tart. But an it !o on forever8 ,f ourse not. Like any finite material* the faster #e onsume it* the faster it #ill be !one. $e are like Asteri% and ,beli% realisin!* #ith a sinkin! feelin! in the "it of the stoma h* that the auldron of "otion they have in front of them is the last one. $e an see the "ossibility of life #ithout "otion loomin! before us. The key "oint here is that it is not the "oint #hen #e use the last dro" that matters. The moment that really matters is the "eak* the moment #hen you realise that from that "oint on#ard there #ill al#ays be less ma!i "otion year-on-year* and that be ause of its in reasin! s ar ity* it #ill be ome an in reasin!ly e%"ensive ommodity. This year .'(()0* oil has for the first time broken throu!h the N>(( a barrel eilin!. Chris Skrebo#ski* editor of Petroleum Review ma!a;ine* defines "eak oil thus* Jthe "oint #hen further e%"ansion of oil "rodu tion be omes im"ossible be ause ne# "rodu tion flo#s are fully offset by "rodu tion de linesJ. -t is the mid#ay "oint - the moment #hen half of the reserves have been used u"* sometimes referred to as 1"eak oil1 or the 1ti""in! "oint1 that is im"ortant. -t is a moment of histori im"ortan e. All the #ay u" the slo"e to#ards the "eak* sin e Drake drilled the first oil #ell in +ennsylvania in >)BI* demand has driven su""ly. The more oil the #orld e onomy needed* the more the oil industry ould "rodu e. 1S#in! "rodu ers1 - that is* nations #ith lar!e reserves #hi h ould in rease out"ut as reHuired - ensured that su""ly ould be in reased #henever ne essary. Durin! the >I@(s and >IA(s it #as the ES that a ted as that s#in! "rodu erK in re ent years it has been Saudi Arabia. ,n e #e "ass the "eak* su""ly be!ins to di tate demand* meanin! that the "ri es start to rise suddenly and stee"ly* and the "eo"le #ith ontrol of the remainin! oil really !et to start allin! the shots.
#ome key indications that we are nearing the peak

Ho# mi!ht #e kno# #e are at or lose to the "eak8 Firstly* there is an observable "attern that !ives us an indi ation. &ost oil-"rodu in! nations follo# the same "attern - the "eak in dis overy tends to o ur @(-A( years before a "eak in "rodu tion. Clearly one has to dis over oil before one an "rodu e it* and #e tend to e%"loit the lar!er and easier reserves first. This "attern has been seen in the E=* the ES* /ussia and many more no#-de linin! oil "rodu in! nations .see left0. Given that the #orld as a #hole "eaked in dis overy in >ICB* #e mi!ht* if the same "attern a""lies* ima!ine that #e are lose to* or at* the "eak of "rodu tion. This #as first observed by !eolo!ist &. =in! Hubbert* #ho "redi ted in >IBC that the ES #ould "eak in "rodu tion in >ID( .it had "eaked in dis overy in the >I@(s0. He #as ridi uled* but eventually "roved orre t. Another indi ator is that sin e :anuary '((B* #orld oil "rodu tion has stayed at bet#een )A and )D million barrels a day .mbd0* in s"ite of a very hi!h "ri e environment. $hile the #orld e onomy des"erately #ants to in rease onsum"tion .the -nternational 7ner!y A!en y has "redi ted that #orld "rodu tion #ill rea h >'(mbd* a fi!ure fe# in the industry take seriously0* and oil "ri es have risen from N>' a barrel in >I)) to ome lose to N>A( a barrel in :une '((). -ts inability to kee" u" #ith bur!eonin! demand .see Fi!ure A* ".'I0 is a stron!
indi ation that matters !eolo!i al* rather than matters "oliti al or e onomi * are in reasin!ly "layin! a role. Dis overies have fallen sin e their "eak in >ICB. This do#n#ard trend in dis overy is also due to the fa t that althou!h #e are still findin! oil* the avera!e si;e of the fields #e are dis overin! is fallin!. -n >IA( the avera!e si;e of the fields found over the "revious five years #as >.B billion barrels* by >IC( it had fallen to @(( million barrels* by '((A it #as 5ust AB million barrels* and it ontinues to fall. -ndeed* durin! the ,il A!e* AD*B(( oil fields have been found* yet the A( lar!est ones have yielded DBO of all the oil ever dis overed. As Fi!ure ' sho#s ."a!e '>0* the fall in dis overy has been a om"anied by risin! onsum"tion. >I)> #as the year this !a" be!an* and it has #idened steadily ever sin e* to a "oint #here #e no# onsume about four barrels of oil for every one #e dis over. -n "ubli * oil om"anies s"eak of hi!h reserves and of a lu rative future. B+ state that 1there is no reserves "roblem1* 7%%on that there is 1no si!n of "eak1 and Aram o that there is 1no reserve "roblem1. Behind the s enes* ho#ever* they are in reasin!ly a#are of the nature of the "roblem. -n 6ovember '((C* an event took "la e at Colorado S"rin!s alled the Hedber! /esear h Conferen e on Enderstandin! $orld ,il /esour es. The event #as by invitation only* and brou!ht to!ether "eo"le from a ross the oil industry* as #ell as from bodies like the Enited States Geolo!i al Survey* the -nternational 7ner!y A!en y and the 7ner!y -nformation Administration. 6o "ress #ere allo#ed* and "eo"le1s "resentations #eren1t shared. The day featured o"en and frank dis ussions* alon! the lines of Jmy om"any says this* but the data says this.J The intention of the onferen e #as to re on ile the enormous differen e in the estimates of likely future reserves additions bet#een* on the one hand* #hat the ES Geolo!i al Survey* reators of the most o"timisti s enarios* "rodu esK and* on the other* #hat other or!anisations believe to be the ase. Com"anies brou!ht alon! their detailed "ro"rietary data* #hi h is not made "ubli * and tried to see if there #as a lear "attern emer!in!. The results of this J-1ll sho# you mine if you1ll sho# me yoursJ session #ere strikin!. The ESGS had "ut for#ard a fi!ure of CB(bn barrels yet to be dis overed* but the onferen e "ut the fi!ure at 5ust 'B(bn. -t also ar!ued that the non- onventional oils .tar sands* dee" #ater et .0 #ould never "rodu e more than A-B million barrels a day* and indeed #ould stru!!le to a hieve that* a!ain mu h lo#er than the ESGS. This kind of behind-the-s enes onfidential meetin! #as also instrumental in the early days of limate han!e* leadin! to the formation of the -nter!overnmental +anel on Climate Chan!e. A further indi ator that #e are nearly there is the nature of the ne# dis overies that the market !ets e% ited about these days* and #hi h are in reasin!ly bein! e%"e ted to make u" the shortfall as onventional oil "rodu tion be!ins to de line. ,ne of the ne# 1un onventional1 sour es of oil !eneratin! e% itement is the Alberta tar sands in Canada. The "roblem #ith the tar sands is that the oil is very dense and vis ous* more like sandy bitumen than oil. There are t#o #ays the oil is e%tra ted. The first is to di! it out #ith hu!e di!!ers* move it around in tru ks the si;e of a house* and 1#ash1 the sands in the eHuivalent of a hu!e #ashin! ma hine. Around '(O of it is "rodu ed this #ay. The rest is e%tra ted in situ, #here steam is "um"ed under!round and the oil su ked out. The resultant lo#-!rade 1synfuel1 is then refined into usable oil "rodu ts. -f the Alberta tar sands are the best #e an do* #e really are in trouble. Alberta is estimated to ontain >DB billion barrels of oil* #hi h makes Canada one of the to" four or five oil-"rodu in! ountries in the #orld. ,il from tar sands is far more e%"ensive to "rodu e than most other sour es of oil* but #ith the "ri e of oil risin!* these harder-to-e%tra t
oil sour es be ome in reasin!ly finan ially viable. ,il om"anies are movin! into the area* and Fort & &urray* the area1s main to#n* is be omin! a boom to#n. Clive &ather* C7, of Shell Canada* des ribes Shell1s o"eration in the area as the bi!!est thin! he has ever seen the om"any undertake. +eo"le from all over the #orld are movin! there for the 16e# Gold /ush1. Tar sands "rodu tion is some#hat akin to tryin! to remove the o oa "o#der from a hu!e ho olate bro#nie. Green"ea e estimate that by '(>>* annual arbon dio%ide emissions from tar sands "rodu tion #ill e% eed )( million tonnes of C,' eHuivalent* more than that urrently emitted by all of Canada1s ars. Tar sands "rodu tion also reHuires the fellin! of lar!e areas of an ient boreal forest. The t#o "rin i"al #eaknesses of the "ro ess are ho# the steam that se"arates the oil and sand is "rodu ed* and #here the #ater to make that steam omes from. 4ou take lean* "re ious natural !as .a resour e also on its o#n tra5e tory of de"letion0* and burn it to make steam to "rodu e 1synfuel1* a "oor Huality dirty rude oil. -t is madness. This is no 1!old rush1. -ndeed* &att Simmons* an ener!y industry investment banker* on e des ribed it thus2 JGentlemen* #e have 5ust turned !old into lead.J -t is literally s ra"in! the barrel* and rather than ne!atin! the "eak oil ar!ument - as those #ho say Jlook* see* there1s loads leftJ "ro"ose - this onfirms the "eak oil ar!ument2 that #e have rea hed the mid-"oint of the ,il A!e* and the era of hea" oil is #ell and truly over. ,ne tyre alone* on one of the hu!e tru ks* osts over PA(*(((. Tar sands "rodu tion reHuires the "ri e of oil to stay hi!h in order to be viable* but #e should also ask ho# hi!h does the "ri e of natural !as have to rise before tar sands "rodu tion be omes unviable a!ain8 The other limitin! fa tor in tar sands "rodu tion* alon!side hea" natural !as* is #ater. -t is estimated that it takes bet#een t#o and four barrels of #ater for every barrel of syntheti rude "rodu ed from the tar sands. The amount of #ater that an be e%tra ted from the Athabas a /iver is finite* and is a ma5or fa tor limitin! "rodu tion. Des"ite the luna y of tar sands e%tra tion* lar!e amounts of money are "ourin! in to make it ha""en* due in "art at least to the fa t that it is one of very fe# "la es in the #orld o"en to "rivate investment in oil "rodu tion. $e mi!ht at this sta!e use the analo!y of a "ub. Conventional drillin! of s#eet rude oil* su h as o urs in Saudi Arabia* is like standin! at the bar #hile a harmin! barman "ours you "ints dire t from the ask in the ellar. Tar sands are akin to arrivin! at the "ub to find that all the beer is off* but so des"erate are you for a drink that you be!in to fantasise that in the thirty years this "ub has been o"en for business* the eHuivalent of B*((( "ints have been s"ilt on this ar"et* so you desi!n a "ro ess #hereby you boil u" the ar"et in order to e%tra t the beer a!ain. -t is the des"erate* futile a tion of an al oholi unable to ima!ine life #ithout the ob5e t of his addi tion* and is only viable be ause oil "ri es are hi!h and natural !as "ri es are hea" .hi!h oil "ri es bein! the only one of the t#o that #e an de"end on0. Another re ent story also indi ates the less-than-reassurin! nature of our ne# dis overies. -t relates to a su""osed hu!e find of ne# oil reserves in the Gulf of &e%i o in '((C* Jbet#een @ and >B billion barrelsJ a ordin! to over-e% ited "ress s"e ulation .that1s Huite a ran!e0* #hi h allo#ed many ommentators to inform us that "eak oil is no# offi ially nonsense* and that #e an all roll over and !o ba k to slee". This story #as taken to sho# that there are still vast unta""ed reserves out there* that the "eak oil 1doomsters1 are #ron! - and look* here in the Gulf of &e%i o is the "roof of that. $hen you read bet#een the lines of this story* it isn1t
Huite as e% itin! as it first a""ears .e% itin! that is* if you aren1t someone #ho believes that the best "la e for oil is for it to stay in the !round0. The oil* #hi h ould be bountiful or is more likely to be disa""ointin!* is belo# one mile of o ean and four miles of ro k* in the most hurri ane-"rone stret h of the Gulf of &e%i o. /ental of the s"e ialist ri!s reHuired to drill in su h #aters an ost half a million dollars per day. Contrast this to the ease of drillin! on land in the !iant fields of Saudi Arabia or &e%i o* and ombine this #ith the fallin! si;e of ne# dis overies. . . it1s lear that #e are s rabblin! around for rumbs. The -nternational 7ner!y A!en y* in a '((D re"ort* talked about #hat it eu"hemisti ally alled a 1su""ly run h1 in '(>'. The reasons for this* they ar!ued* are om"le% and diverse* but nothin! to do #ith "eak oil. Andre# Leonard at ###.salon. om #rote2 JTo drasti ally summarise the re"ort2 The "roblem is not that the #orld is runnin! out of oil* but that ri!ht no#* offshore oil ri!s are s ar e and e%"ensive* skilled labor is ti!ht* trans"ort infrastru ture is limited* and "oliti al onsiderations su h as 1resour e nationalism1 in states su h as <ene;uela and /ussia and !eo"oliti al risk in -ran and 6i!eria are ham"erin! investment and develo"ment. Lo!isti s are the real "roblem* the re"ort seems to be sayin!* and not the a tual amount of oil in the !round. This leads to the on lusion that even thou!h nearly @ million barrels of ne# su""ly #ill be needed ea h year 5ust to offset the de line in established oil fields* 1above-!round su""ly risks are seen e% eedin! belo#-!round risks in the medium term.1J Ho#ever* Leonard is hi!hly dubious of these !iven reasons* on ludin! Jif it smells like "eak oil* it "robably is.J +eak oil is the very lar!e ele"hant in the room* one it is be omin! in reasin!ly diffi ult to i!nore. Althou!h all of the issues identified by the -7A are valid* they are in reasin!ly bein! e%a erbated by !eolo!i al onstraints. The final reason that onvin es me that #e are lose to the "eak is the han!in! finan ial "ra ti es of the ma5or oil om"anies. Firstly* the in reasin! and steadily more s"e ta ular mer!ers bet#een different oil om"anies* a "ra ti e sometimes referred to as 1"ros"e tin! on $all Street1. An oil om"any1s share "ri e de"ends on its reserves* on the "otential future "rodu tion it has se ured a ess to. As the trend in dis overies ontinues to fall* as it has done sin e >ICB .see Fi!ure '* ".'>0* it be omes harder and harder for om"anies to sustain their reserves to offset a!ainst their "rodu tion. -t has be ome standard "ra ti e no# for the lar!er oil om"anies to buy the smaller ones* thereby absorbin! their reserves. Althou!h oil om"anies have al#ays done this* the s ale of it has be ome in reasin!ly da;;lin!. A re ent arti le by David Strahan e%amined the likelihood of a mer!er bet#een B+ and Shell* somethin! that ordinarily #ould have been entirely unthinkable. -n s"ite of their "rotestations that "eak oil is so far a#ay as to be not #orth thinkin! about* the move* if it !oes ahead* #ould be "rimarily driven by the fa t that they are "rodu in! oil but are in reasin!ly unable to re"la e #hat they are "rodu in! #ith fresh reserves. B+ mana!ed to tem"orarily reverse its de lines by en!a!in! in the T6=-B+ "ro5e t in /ussia* thereby addin! the /ussian om"any1s reserves to its o#n* but no#* shortly after#ard* the !a" is startin! to o"en u" a!ain. Another fas inatin! re ent develo"ment has been lar!e oil om"anies buyin! ba k their o#n shares. -t is estimated that if Chevron Cor"oration kee"s buyin! ba k its shares at urrent rates .it "lans to s"end N>B billion over the ne%t three years0* it #ill have liHuidated all of its shares by '('@. 7%%on is doin! the same* s"endin! about N@( billion ea h year. $ith urrent
hi!h "ri es* oil om"anies are a#ash #ith money* but #ith fe# "la es to invest it. $ith dis overies fallin!* e%"loration is seen as yieldin! insuffi ient returns and "rovidin! a very "oor investment. That "eak oil is no# a fa tor in the de isions of oil e%e utives #as s"elled out in the 1'((D Global E"stream +erforman e /evie#1* #hi h said2 J$e believe that the issue ."eak oil0 has be ome "art of the industry1s lon!-term "lannin!. -f the "eak oil theory is orre t* and a de line in #orld "rodu tion is imminent* a om"any must hoose amon! four alternatives - try to be ome a dominant "arti i"ant* find a ni he o"erational talent* harvest assets* or liHuidate Hui kly.J Share buyba ks are a lear indi ator of ontinued fallin! dis overies and return from investment in e%"loration* and su!!est that oil om"anies are startin! to "lan for their o#n ontra tion. These are* if you like* my to" five reasons #hy "eak oil is near. There are many more* as an investi!ation of the /esour es se tion at the ba k of this book* or of some of the essential #ebsites* #ill reveal. At the end of the day* oil and !as are finite resour es. -t is lear no# that at least C( out of the I) oil-"rodu in! nations of the #orld are in de line* and that even mi!hty oil-"rodu in! nations su h as Saudi Arabia are e%"erien in! enormous diffi ulties meetin! demand. Given that rea hin! "eak oil #ill be a ti""in! "oint of un"re edented "ro"ortions* it seems reasonable then to ask2$hen mi!ht #e e%"e t to !et there8
Peak When1
There is* as you mi!ht ima!ine* a #ide ran!e of "redi tions as to #hen e%a tly #orld oil "rodu tion mi!ht "eak* althou!h re ently this ran!e has been narro#in!. This diversity of o"inion lar!ely boils do#n to the fa t that mu h of the information needed to make a "re ise "redi tion is not in the "ubli arena. Around )(O of #orld oil is ontrolled by national oil om"anies* #ho have no obli!ation to make their reserves data "ubli . -n Saudi Arabia and =u#ait* for e%am"le* a tual reserves data are a state se ret and are fier ely "rote ted. The "rivate oil om"anies - the Shells and Totals of this #orld* res"onsible for a relatively small "ortion of the #orld1s oil - are obli!ed to make their reserves data "ubli . Ho#ever* they have to #alk a deli ate line bet#een kee"in! the re!ulatory authorities and their shareholders ha""y* and not revealin! information of use to their om"etitors. Given the !ravity of #hat "eak oil #ould mean to the #orld* #hat #e are left #ith is a de ision2 do #e believe !overnment and oil om"any assertions that all is #ell and that there is no ause for alarm in s"ite of the mountin! eviden e to the ontrary* or do #e Huestion this om"la en y* and look more losely at #hat the oil industry is doin! than #hat it is sayin!8 7nvironmental #riter and am"ai!ner Geor!e &onbiot "uts it in stark terms2 J,ur ho"es of a soft landin! rest on 5ust t#o "ro"ositions2 that the oil "rodu ers fi!ures are orre t* and that !overnments a t before they have to. - ho"e that reassures you.J -n The Upside of Down* Thomas Homer-Di%on likens our situation to drivin! a ar fast alon! a ountry lane in dense fo!. $e kno# #e are movin! fast* #e an hear the en!ine* but other than that it is hard to assess ho# fast #e are movin!. ,ur ma" su!!ests a strai!ht road* and #e are* after all* in a hurry. JDrivin! in fo! is of ourse not sensible*J he #rites* Jbut it1s e%a tly #hat #e1re doin!
today.J Drivin! blind. =enneth Deffeyes* author of eyond !il* "ubli ly fore ast his belief that "eak oil for all oil #ould o ur on Thanks!ivin! Day '((B .that1s Thursday 'Ath 6ovember for those of you outside the ES0. Des"ite re eivin! mu h of the same ridi ule dished out to &. =in! Hubbert* if #e look only at onventional oil* he may #ell have been very nearly ri!ht. Conventional oil "rodu tion a""ears to have "eaked in &ay '((B at DA.' million barrels a day and has been de linin! ever sin e .see Fi!ure @0. +rodu tion of all liHuids .that also adds in tar sands* biofuels* dee" #ater oil* all the harder-to-!et-at stuff0 has also "lateaued over the last t#o years* des"ite shar"ly risin! "ri es and enormous sur!es in demand from China and -ndia* but this does not ne essarily mean that #e have a tually "eaked yet. ,ther resear hers !ive a ran!e of dates. The ,il De"letion Analysis Centre "uts "eak oil in '((D* Colin Cam"bell and Chris Skrebo#ski !ive '(>(* and :ean Laherrere '(>B. The ske"ti s* su h as Cambrid!e 7ner!y /esear h Asso iates .C7/A0* no lon!er debate if oil #ill "eak* rather #hen it #ill "eak. The C7/A study* #hi h !enerated a lot of 1"eak oil theory is dead1 media overa!e #hen it #as released in '((C* #as thorou!hly demolished .in my o"inion0 by an e% ellent "ie e by Dave Cohen* #hi h analysed the C7/A ar!ument and found it la kin!. Counterin! the re"ort1s laim that JC7/A does not a!ree #ith the sim"listi on e"t of an imminent "eak in oil "rodu tion nor #ith the idea that oil #ill 1run out1 soon thereafterJ* Cohen #rote2 J6o one here or else#here is laimin! that onventional oil #ill 1run out1 anytime soon. /ather* the "eak oil vie# is an evolvin!* so"histi ated take on onventional oil "rodu tion and the viability of substitutes to re"la e ontinuin! demand for this "aramount fossil fuel in the fa e of inevitable de lines in available su""ly. ,nly the timin! of su h de lines is at issue here. $e an also only add that denial in the fa e of "otentially very threatenin! events is a "o#erful for e in the human "sy he.J - am not Hualified to !ive you an a urate "redi tion as to #hen this "eak #ill o ur. - am* ho#ever* by nature dra#n to those #ho have no vested interests* #ho are inde"endent of !overnment or ommer ial interests* but #ho have analysed the data in de"th. +redi tions about "eak oil ran!e from 1it has already ha""ened1 to 1it #ill never ha""en1. Ho#ever* !iven that even some oil om"anies no# a kno#led!e not only the on e"t* but have started "uttin! dates to it* anyone #ho ar!ues that there are '(( years1 #orth of oil left is livin! in loud- u koo-land. Thierry Desmarest* C7, of Fren h oil om"any Total* re ently said he thou!ht #orld oil "rodu tion #ould never e% eed >((mbd* tellin! a onferen e in Holland* J-f #e stay #ith this ty"e of "rodu tion !ro#th* our im"ression is that "eak oil ould be rea hed around '('(.JLord /on ,%bur!h* former Chairman of Shell* re ently said #orld oil "rodu tion J ould #ell "lateau #ithin the ne%t t#enty years* and - !uess - #ould be sur"rised if it hadn1t.J He added2 J$e may be slee"#alkin! into a "roblem #hi h is a tually !oin! to be very serious and it may be too late to do anythin! about it by the time #e are fully a#are.J -n late , tober '((D* Germany1s 7ner!y $at h Grou" "ublished a re"ort #hi h reassessed the data and ar!ued very onvin in!ly that #orld "rodu tion had* in fa t* already "eaked in '((C* and J#ill start to de line at a rate of several "er ent "er yearJ. The re"ort* #hi h also
ar!ued that &iddle 7ast reserves are far lo#er than "reviously thou!ht* on luded2 JThe #orld is at the be!innin! of a stru tural han!e of its e onomi system. This han!e #ill be tri!!ered by de linin! fossil fuel su""lies and #ill influen e almost all as"e ts of our daily life. The no# be!innin! transition "eriod "robably has its o#n rules #hi h are valid only durin! this "hase. Thin!s mi!ht ha""en #hi h #e never e%"erien ed before and #hi h #e may never e%"erien e a!ain on e this transition "eriod has ended. ,ur #ay of dealin! #ith ener!y issues "robably #ill have to han!e fundamentally.J -t is a !reat shame that the British Government ontinues* in "ubli at least* not to a kno#led!e the "eak oil issue. A re ent re"ort on trans"ort ommissioned by the British Treasury stated that Jfuel osts are fore ast to fall by 'CO u" to '('B. An oil "ri e of N@B a barrel is assumed in '('B.J This fore ast #as "ublished even thou!h the "ri e of oil #as already at NB( a barrel by the time the re"ort #as released3 &ore re ently* in res"onse to an online "etition about "eak oil* the E= Government #rote that Jon the balan e of the available analysis and eviden e* the Government1s assessment is that the #orld1s oil and !as resour es are suffi ient to sustain e onomi !ro#th for the foreseeable future.J - think #e an see Desmarest and ,%bur!h1s statements as the bookends in "redi tions of #hen the "eak mi!ht o ur. The ma5ority of estimates are no# fallin! bet#een '(>( and '(>B* #ith very fe# redible resear hers "la in! their fore asts beyond this '('( bookend. Havin! said that* the e%a t date of "eak oil is really not so im"ortant. $hat matters is the fa t that it is inevitable* it is !oin! to be ha""enin! soon* and #e haven1t even be!un to think #hat #e mi!ht do about it. Ho# seein! the do#n#ard side of the mountain stret h a#ay before us #ill affe t our olle tive "sy he remains to be seen* if not determined. Fi!ure A sums u" our "roblem. $e an see ho# losely su""ly and demand have follo#ed ea h other* and ho# "rodu tion has rea hed a "lateau over the last t#o years. ,n e the "eak is rea hed* thou!h* the !a" bet#een su""ly and life-as-usual demand be!ins to steadily #iden* and the "ri e a ordin!ly be!ins to rise shar"ly. -t is often said that ne# ideas !o throu!h three sta!es. First they are ridi uled* then they are i!nored* and finally they are a e"ted as havin! al#ays been the ase. At the Asso iation for the Study of +eak ,il onferen e in Cork* -reland* in Se"tember '((D* former ES 7ner!y Se retary* :ames S hlesin!er* said2 JCon e"tually the battle is over. The "eakists have #on. $e1re all "eakists no#.J
Climate change
Entil a year or so a!o* limate han!e #as seen as bein! su h an una""ealin! sub5e t to really embra e or !et intimate #ith that most "eo"le felt ha""ier lookin! the other #ay. Sin e then thou!h* limate han!e has shifted mu h more to#ards the mainstream* #ith elebrities* !overnments and or"orations fallin! over ea h other in the dash to be ome 1 arbon neutral1. From the 1Live 7arth1 on erts to the Global Cool am"ai!n #hi h en!a!es elebrities in raisin! a#areness* the am"ai!n a!ainst limate han!e has !ro#n ra"idly. Su"ermarkets su h as Tes o and $almart are en!a!in! in far-rea hin! analyses of their arbon foot"rints* and a""ear to be takin! the issue very seriously* as do .in theory at least0 "oliti ians and "oli y makers. 7ven more than #ith "eak oil* - #rite this se tion on limate han!e #ith !reat
tre"idation* as it is su h a fast-movin! field. $hatever - #rite #ill almost ertainly have been overtaken by events by the time this book is "rinted. Climate han!e is ha""enin! faster than most models are able to kee" u" #ith* ontinually onfoundin! e%"e tationK models are bein! onstantly revised and u"dated as the s ale of this hallen!e be omes a""arent. $hen you start to e%"lore the issue* limate han!e is e%tremely s ary. -ndeed* if it isn1t s ary* then you really haven1t understood it. -t is an area #here one an easily resort to a"o aly"ti s are ta ti s* althou!h - #ill try to avoid that hereK the information on its o#n is s ary enou!h #ithout dramati embellishment. Sharon Astyk re ently #rote2 J,ne of the disturbin! thin!s about listenin! to s ientists studyin! limate han!e is the fear in the voi es and #ords of "eo"le not a ustomed to be fearful* and the sense that !enerally s"eakin!* s ientists are far more #orried than most of us are.J $e need to be realisti about #here #e are* and ambitious about #hat #e an do. Climate han!e is a massive "roblem* but the #orst effe ts ould still be avoided if #e are olle tively able to en!a!e #ith the issue. Transition -nitiatives are but one of many "o#erful arbonredu tion te hnolo!ies #hi h* if embra ed in time .and it is of ourse a bi! 1if10* an mean that #e avoid the #orst e%tremes of limate han!e. The trends at the moment* - !rant you* really are not lookin! !ood. The !lobal limate is definitely #armin!K there is no# no doubt about that. - don1t need !ra"hs* harts and s ientifi "a"ers to onvin e me of that. :ust #ithin my o#n lifetime* - have seen the limate han!in!. - remember as a hild #inters bein! far older* havin! to di! the sno# a#ay from the front doors* and "o#er uts aused by sno#fall. Then* unsettled #eather #as the norm. 6o#* the #eather is 5ust "lain unsettlin!* and* as #e shall see* it #ill ontinue to be ome more so. /e ords are onstantly bein! broken. -n the E=* A"ril '((D #as the hottest A"ril on re ord* :une '((D the #ettest :une* autumn '((C the hottest autumn* s"rin! '((D the hottest s"rin!* :uly '((C the hottest month* and the summer of '((D #as only a fe# millimetres a#ay from bein! the #ettest summer. As someone on BBC /adio A1s The "ow #how said re ently* J- don1t kno# about arbon emission levels but - do kno# that #hen a #as" lands on my Christmas ake somethin! is not ri!ht.J ,n the astonishin!ly #et ni!ht of Friday* '(th :uly '((D .the ni!ht #hen floods submer!ed lar!e "arts of the &idlands0* - remember hearin! on the radio that four times the avera!e rainfall for :uly had fallen in t#o hours. At the same time* Gree e #as havin! unusually hot #eather* leadin! to the dreadful forest fires that en!ulfed the ountry a month later* #ith vast "lumes of smoke visible in satellite "hotos of the ountry. $e all have observations from our daily lives of the limate han!in!* #hether it is seein! flo#ers out far earlier than "reviously* s#allo#s arrivin! a month earlier than usual* as they did in '((D* or the fa t that #e have to turn on our heatin! in the #inter less often. -n some ases* "eo"le !o to e%traordinary len!ths to "retend it isn1t ha""enin! .see daffodils arti le on the follo#in! "a!e0.
The greenhouse effect

The !reenhouse effe t isn1t somethin! #e re ently invented - #ithout it* no life #ould e%ist on this "lanet. $ithout the layer of arbon dio%ide and other !ases kee"in! the #armth in* our avera!e !lobal tem"erature #ould be ->)QC. The 7arth has !one throu!h various a!es of
#armin! and oolin! durin! its history. Durin! the most re ent - e A!e* >)*((( years a!o* half of the E= #as under a mile of i e* and so mu h #ater #as lo ked u" in the i e sheets that sea levels #ere u" to DB metres lo#er than at "resent. S ientists have re ently found remnants of entire lands a"es* #ith settlements* lakes* forests* marshes and hills under AB(ft of #ater in #hat is no# the 6orth Sea. This dis overy emer!ed from analysis of seismi data from oil om"anies* and has been hristened by s ientists 1Do!!erland1. +rofessor <in e Gaffney of the -nstitute of Ar haeolo!y and AntiHuity at Birmin!ham Eniversity* #ho led the resear h* said2 JThe oasts* rivers* marshes and hills #e found #ere* for thousands of years* "arts of a lands a"e that #ould have been familiar to hundreds of thousands of "eo"le and ountless s"e ies of animals. 6o# it is all !one.J So* althou!h havin! the !reenhouse effe t has been one of the fa tors that has made life on 7arth "ossible* the "roblem omes #hen the !ases that form that layer . arbon dio%ide* methane* nitrous o%ide and so on0 build u" and tra" more and more heat in the 7arth1s atmos"here. -t is akin to thro#in! more and more duvets onto a bed* #hi h leads to the "roblems dis ussed belo#. C,' is su h a small "art of the overall atmos"here around us that it is measured in "arts "er million .""m0. 6ormally anythin! that is measured in "arts "er million is so insi!nifi ant that it is hardly #orth botherin! about. +re-industrial levels of arbon #ere 'D)""m* but by '((D they have rea hed @)B""m. This seemin!ly triflin! in rease - aused by the in essant and ever-!ro#in! release into the atmos"here of arbon dio%ide from the ombustion of fossil fuels* from han!es in land use* from deforestation and so on* alon!side the in reases in emissions of methane from minin!* livesto k and the dryin! out of #etlands* as #ell as nitrous o%ide from a!ri ulture and aero"lanes - has already had si!nifi ant effe ts* disru"tin! the deli ate balan e of the "lanetary limate. Althou!h anthro"o!eni !reenhouse !ases .i.e. those aused by human a tivity0 are only about @(O of total emissions* they have been enou!h to ti" a very deli ate balan e. The rise of arbon dio%ide on entrations from 'D)""m to @)A""m has led to !lobal avera!e tem"erature risin! by (.)QC above "re-industrial levels. $hile this may not sound like mu h* 5ust that level of in rease has "rodu ed alarmin! han!es around the #orld. These in lude #ides"read !la ial retreat in the Himalayas* heavier than usual monsoons in -ndia* 6e"al and Ban!ladesh* en roa hin! drou!ht in Australia* in reasin! freHuen y of tro"i al storms* as #ell as* it ould be ar!ued* the s"e ta ular floods that hit the &idlands in the E= in the 1summer1 of '((D. -n Alaska* #here avera!e tem"eratures have in reased @-AQC* houses and roads are be omin! unusable as the "ermafrost melts* #hi h in turn releases more methane* a far more "otent !reenhouse !as than arbon dio%ide. Sea levels are risin!* and the rate of that rise is a eleratin!K the years >II@-'((C sa# avera!e rises of @.@mm "er year* far !reater than the -nter!overnmental +anel on Climate Chan!e1s "redi tion in '((> of rises of 'mm "er year. Here in the E=* #e are havin! to rethink the trees #e "lant* and the #eather is noti eably han!in!. There is no# no ar!ument that the #orld is #armin! dan!erously* "ossibly atastro"hi ally* and there is an un"re edented s ientifi near- onsensus that our oil-addi ted lifestyles are to blame. So ho# hi!h an #e realisti ally allo# #orld tem"erature to rise8 The ans#er is that ideally #e #ould sto" all emissions today* but learly that1s not !oin! to ha""en. As &ark Lynas des ribes so !ra"hi ally in his book #ix Degrees* ea h de!ree that #e allo# #orld
tem"erature to rise brin!s ne# and un"re edented s ales of atastro"he. $e still haven1t broken throu!h the >QC threshold* but even so* the han!es are lear to see. The i e-sheets on the Ar ti , ean are meltin! .of #hi h more belo#0* the 6orthern +assa!e #as o"en to shi""in! in '((D for the first time sin e re ords be!an* drou!hts are in reasin! around the #orld* and #eather re ords are bein! broken all the time. Hurri anes and ty"hoons are in reasin!* as are the number of heat#aves. Climate han!e is ha""enin!* and it1s ha""enin! faster than the s ientists1 models an kee" u" #ith.
0s there such a thing as a safe limit1

-f #e break thou!h the >QC barrier* as no# seems inevitable* #e1ll see a &ount =iliman5aro om"letely bereft of i e* the almost om"lete olla"se of the Great Barrier /eef* and a number of island nations submer!ed by risin! sea levels. A 'QC rise #ould ause dreadful heat#aves* and in reased drou!ht around the #orld. Breakin! throu!h the @QC barrier #ould mean that the !ro#in! season in 6or#ay #ould be #hat it is in southern 7n!land today. The @QC threshold #ould also brin! about the om"lete olla"se of the Ama;on e osystem* and the very real threat of onfli t over #ater su""lies around the #orld. Death rates from summer heat#aves in 7uro"e #ould make the summer of '((@ .#hi h killed over @(*((( "eo"le 0 look "ositively te"id. Beyond that* in a nutshell* runa#ay limate han!e is not somethin! you #ant to e%"erien e* or leave as a le!a y to your hildren* yet #e a""ear to be sailin! alarmin!ly lose to it. The emer!in! onsensus in re ent years has been that the im"erative is to kee" belo# 'QC at all osts. 7ven doin! that* there is no !uarantee that #e #ill not have tri!!ered runa#ay limate han!e. As Geor!e &onbiot "uts it* t#o de!rees is Jmerely less dan!erous than #hat lies beyondJ* and indeed a re ent "a"er by :ames Hansen et al$ at 6ASA ar!ues that even 'QC is too hi!h* !iven the rate of de!eneration of the Ar ti sea i e and the Greenland i e sheets* and that >.B->.DQC is more in line #ith adherin! to the "re autionary "rin i"le. The reality is that the arbon dio%ide already released #ill ontinue to "ush u" the tem"erature for years to ome .a "henomenon kno#n as 1thermal inertia10 by at least (.CQC* meanin! that #e are already ommitted to a >.AQC rise #hatever #e hoose to do no#. The #armin! #e are e%"erien in! no# is the result of !reenhouse !ases emitted in the >ID(s. Let1s return to the Ar ti sea i e for a moment* as it may #ell turn out to hold the key to the future of human ivilisation. The -nter!overnmental +anel on Climate Chan!e1s Fourth Assessment /e"ort in '((D said2 JAr ti sea i e is res"ondin! sensitively to !lobal #armin!. $hile han!es in #inter sea i e over are moderate* late summer sea i e is "ro5e ted to disa""ear almost om"letely to#ards the end of the '>st entury.J -t a""ears* ho#ever* from a look at the in reasin! flo# of literature on the sub5e t* that this meltin! is ha""enin! far faster than that* and that the i e is far more sensitive to rises in tem"erature than "reviously thou!ht. -t has already redu ed in si;e by ''O over the "ast t#o years* as #ell as be omin! steadily thinner* halvin! in thi kness sin e '((>. Some "redi t no# that the Ar ti #ill be om"letely free of i e by '(>@* a hundred years ahead of the -+CC1s fore ast. This* in turn* #ill s"eed u" the meltin! of the Greenland i e sheet* #hi h is #hat ould lead to sea level rises of as mu h as five metres by the end of the entury* affe tin! t#o million sHuare kilometres of lo#-lyin! land and CCI million "eo"le.
&u h of this re-evaluation is due to s ientists only no# be!innin! to develo" models for the om"le% feedba k me hanisms that influen e rates of meltin!. :ames Hansen of 6ASA #rites that Ji e sheet disinte!ration starts slo#ly but multi"le "ositive feedba ks an lead to ra"id non-linear olla"se.J $hile kee"in! belo# the 'QC threshold is vital* an in reasin! number of "eo"le are ar!uin! that even 'QC is too little to "revent runa#ay limate han!e. David S"ratt of Carbon 7Huity* havin! evaluated the latest eviden e on the s ale of the i e meltin! in the Ar ti * #rites that JLthe -+CC1sM most fundamental and #idely su""orted tenet - that 'QC re"resents a reasonable ma%imum tar!et if #e are to avoid dan!erous limate han!e - an no lon!er be defended.J Given that #e are not yet even at a >QC rise* yet a""ear to have unleashed the atastro"hi disinte!ration of the Ar ti i e* 'QC is an absurd level to ima!ine as bein! 1safe1 by any stret h of the ima!ination. He su!!ests that if #e #ere able to #ind ba k the lo ks and start a!ain* #e #ould have based #hat onstitutes 1safe1 rises in emissions on #hat !uaranteed the stable ontinuity of the Ar ti i e sheet* #hi h #ould "robably have been around (.BQC. The -ndustrial /evolution #ould have looked very different - or "erha"s #ith the benefit of hindsi!ht #e #ould have de ided to for!o it alto!ether. S"ratt on ludes his study thus2 JThe sim"le im"erative is for us to very ra"idly de arbonise the #orld e onomy and to "ut in "la e the means to dra# do#n the e%istin! e% ess C,' levels. $e must hoose tar!ets that an a tually solve the "roblem in a timely #ay. -t is not too late to be honest #ith ourselves and our fello# iti;ens.J Cuts on this s ale #on1t ha""en #ithout an e%traordinary* un"re edented* !lobal on erted effort. This #ould be from a startin! "osition #here there is still no area of the #orld #here out"uts of arbon emissions are a tually fallin!. Entil re ently* it #as believed that the s ale of limate han!e ne essitated uttin! our emissions by I(O by '(B(* or even by '(@(* a mere t#enty-t#o years a#ay. Tryin! to ima!ine maintainin! our urrent lifestyles but emittin! 5ust >(O of the urrent amount of arbon is e%tremely diffi ult - almost unima!inable. Ho#ever* buried in a re"ort earlier in '((D from the -nter!overnmental +anel on Climate Chan!e is an e%traordinary "ie e of resear h. The -+CC resear hers* usin! 1 ou"led modellin!1 .#hi h basi ally means modellin! in ludin! the im"a t of some feedba k loo"s0 on luded that to stay at under a 'QC in rease in tem"erature* humanity has to ;ero its emissions by '(C(. That isn1t sayin! that #e have to a hieve ;ero emissions from burnin! fossil fuels in our ars* "lanes and "o#er stations .#hi h mi!ht seem hard enou!h0K that1s ;ero from everythin! #e do - from uttin! do#n trees* from usin! fertiliser .manufa tured from natural !as0 and from raisin! livesto k. Similarly* refle tin! on the im"li ations of :ames Hansen1s re ent "a"er on Ar ti i e meltin!* Geor!e &onbiot told the '((D Climate Cam" at Heathro# Air"ort2 J$e1re not talkin! any more about measures #hi h reHuire a little bit of t#eakin! here and there* or a little bit of "oliti al t#eakin! here and there. $e1re talkin! about measures #hi h reHuire !lobal revolutionary han!e.J I(O uts are no lon!er adeHuate* he said* nor* even* are >((O uts. $e are lookin! at >>(->'(O uts* in other #ords seHuesterin! more arbon than #e "rodu e. $hat it mi!ht a tually look like - if you or - #ent to bed in the evenin! havin! seHuestered more arbon than #e had !enerated - - #ill onsider later in the book* but this is learly a monumental and un"re edented hallen!e.
The intertwining of peak oil and climate change

,ne of the more absurd "henomena to emer!e in re ent years is that there are limate han!e a tivists #ho dismiss the "eak oil ar!ument* and "eak oil a tivists #ho do#n"lay limate han!e. -t is as if "eo"le have dis overed terrain #hi h is someho# 1theirs1* #hi h they intend to !allantly defend a!ainst all- omers. - have s"oken to a number of leadin! limate han!e a tivists #ho are doin! !reat #ork on limate han!e* but #ho re!ularly #ant to do#n"lay the "eak oil issue. Geor!e &onbiot has e%"ressed aution about em"hasisin! the "eak oil ar!ument* fearin! it #ill le!itimise the ase for biofuels* in reased oal use* tar sands e%tra tion and other limati ally atastro"hi a""roa hes. J$e don1t have to invoke "eak oil at all to see the sense and the lo!i in Lthe Transition a""roa hM* be ause even if the "eak oil "roblem doesn1t e%ist in any form* limate han!e does*Jhe told a "ubli meetin! in Lam"eter. Ho#ever* in a subseHuent arti le he revisited "eak oil* e%aminin! the E= Government1s "redi tions for in reases in road trans"ort* and askin! #hat mi!ht "o#er those ars* findin! that* unbelievably Jno re"ort has ever been ommissioned by the British Government on the issue of #hether or not there is enou!h oil to sustain its trans"ort "ro!ramme.J Tony :uni"er of Friends of the 7arth a kno#led!es that "eak oil is a real hallen!e2 J$e do need to have the "eak oil Huestion in mind* be ause* irres"e tive of #hat #e do about limate han!e* there is !oin! to be an additional sho k that1s !oin! to be e onomi ally si!nifi ant* if not Huite dan!erous* omin! from the oil "ri e shootin! u" at some "oint* very likely in the not-too-distant future.J He on ludes* ho#ever* by sayin!2 JSo the t#o are related* but - think #e have to kee" them se"arate in terms of ho# #e "resent them and deal #ith them be ause other#ise #e reate inadvertently dama!in! res"onses.J - disa!ree. - #ill ar!ue in this se tion that - don1t think #e an kee" them se"arate* and that doin! so does nothin! to assist our develo"ment of realisti and "otentially su essful res"onses. :eremy Le!!ett alls them the JT#o Great ,versi!hts of ,ur TimesJ and* to borro# from Al Gore* "eak oil is as mu h an -n onvenient Truth for limate han!e am"ai!ners as limate han!e is for everyone else. Both* of ourse* are sym"toms of a so iety ho"elessly addi ted to fossil fuels and the lifestyles they make "ossible. -t is* ho#ever* too sim"listi to assert that "eak oil #ill mean limate han!e #ill be brou!ht under ontrol be ause #e #ill run out of a ess to affordable liHuid fuelsK the situation is mu h more om"le%. $e do have a hoi e about ho# #e res"ond to "eak oil. $e an use it as an ar!ument for develo"in! solutions that a tually "ut in "la e infrastru ture that #ill su""ort us beyond the ,il A!e* or #e an use it to 5ustify lin!in! to fossil fuels at all osts. The dan!er is* as &onbiot ar!ues* that the !a" #hi h emer!es as liHuid fuels de line in availability #ill be filled #ith other fuels ea h far #orse in terms of their limate im"a ts than oil #as - the turnin! of oal into liHuid fuels* tar sands* biodiesel and so on. -f #e don1t fill the !a" #ith onservation and a on erted "ro!ramme of relo alisation .a on e"t e%"lored in de"th belo#0* and if #e refuse olle tively to a kno#led!e the reality of ener!y des ent .the do#n#ard trend in the net ener!y under"innin! so iety0* #e #ill ra"idly drive ourselves beyond the limati ti""in! "oints and #ill unleash limate hell. -f #e see limate han!e as a se"arate and distin t issue
from "eak oil* #e risk reatin! a #orld of lo#er emissions but one #hi h is* in terms of oil vulnerability* 5ust as fra!ile as today1s - if not more so - as ener!y "ri es rise. A !ood e%am"le of this is 6e# 4ork* #hi h re ently emer!ed in a study as havin! one of the lo#est "er a"ita C,' emissions of any lar!e $estern ity* less than a third of the "er a"ita ES avera!e. This is due to the density of livin!* the #alkability* !ood "ubli trans"ort and the lo# heatin! reHuirements of a"artment livin!. So* from a limate han!e "ers"e tive #e an ar!ue that 6e# 4ork is a !ood model of lo# arbon livin! #e #ould all do #ell to emulate. 6o# let1s #eave "eak oil into that mi%. $hat ha""ens to 6e# 4ork in the event of a "o#er shorta!e* or #hen the "ri e of im"ortin! food starts to rise shar"ly8 6e# 4ork e%"erien ed su h a "o#er ut in Au!ust '((@* and althou!h it only lasted for a day* its im"a t #as keenly felt. $hile 6e# 4ork may have a small arbon foot"rint* it has little or no resilien e to de linin! oil su""lies .a on e"t e%"lored in de"th in Cha"ter @0. Climate han!e says #e should han!e* #hereas "eak oil says #e will be forced to han!e. Both ate!ori ally state that fossil fuels have no role to "lay in our future* and the sooner #e an sto" usin! them the better. -t is key that both limate han!e and "eak oil are !iven an eHual de!ree of im"ortan e in any de ision-makin! "ro esses. -t is interestin! to observe that limate han!e is ra"idly bein! taken on board by or"orations* and in reasin!ly by !overnments. &arks and S"en er no# add labels to their lothes #hi h say J-f -t1s 6ot Dirty* $ash at @(*J and su"ermarkets are fallin! over ea h other to be seen to be !reener than their om"etitors. The idea of maintainin! the !lobal e onomy and 5ust redu in! its arbon out"ut ea h year is attra tive* and is no# bein! seen as entral to stayin! ahead of the om"etition. A"art from the S#edish and "ossibly the -rish Governments* no !overnment or or"oration is yet really addressin! or even a kno#led!in! "eak oil* at least "ubli ly* be ause their business models #ill stru!!le !reatly to ada"t to it. For this reason the drive for redu in! arbon emissions is omin! lar!ely from the to" do#n#ardsK #hile res"onses to "eak oil* due to its bein! less "alatable to !overnment and industry* a""ear to be omin! more from the bottom u". -t is also im"ortant to "oint out that unless #e "lan in advan e for "eak oil* and ado"t measures su h as the ,il De"letion +roto ol "ro"osed by Colin Cam"bell and /i hard Heinber!* the re ession aused by runa#ay oil "ri es #ill blo# res"onses to limate han!e out of the #ater. /es"ondin! to limate han!e on an adeHuate s ale reHuires a lot of money and an un"re edented de!ree of !lobal o-o"eration. An e onomi re ession - or #orse* olla"se - #ill make kee"in! the li!hts on our "riority* and ta klin! limate han!e #ill slide ra"idly do#n our list of "riorities. Fa in! runa#ay limate han!e #ith a olla"sed e onomy is the s enario #e really #ant to avoid* and #e se"arate these t#o issues at our "eril. +erha"s one ould also ar!ue that #hile limate han!e offers !lobalised e onomies the "ossibility of !radual ada"tation to a lo#er arbon #ay of ontinuin! !lobalised international trade* "eak oil asks mu h tou!her* and "ossibly unans#erable* Huestions. Fi!ure D tries to set out #hat ha""ens #hen "eak oil and limate han!e are looked at to!ether rather than in isolation. The Hirs h /e"ort* #hi h #e #ill !o on to e%"lore* ar!ues that #e an miti!ate "eak oil #ith a rash "ro!ramme of sHuee;in! oil out of everythin! #e an !et our hands on. ,n the other hand* the Stern /e"ort* ommissioned by the E= Government to e%"lore the e onomi s of limate han!e* believes that limate miti!ation and !lobalised e onomi !ro#th are both "ossible and om"atible. -t does* ho#ever* om"letely
i!nore "eak oil* statin! that Jthere is enou!h fossil fuel in the !round to meet #orld onsum"tion demand at reasonable ost until at least '(B(J* an utterly absurd assertion in the li!ht of #hat #e have looked at in Cha"ter >. - ar!ue here* as Fi!ure D sho#s* that #hen the t#o are ombined* our o"tions look very different* that #hen #e ombine the t#o* the rebuildin! of resilien e .a on e"t #e shall !o on to e%"lore0 is as im"ortant as uttin! arbon emissions.
Can peak oil engage people more effectively than climate change1
Here - enter the realm of the ontentious - and - do so autiously but determinedly. -t has been my e%"erien e from my #ork "romotin! the Transition on e"t that "eak oil* if "resented in the #ay that this book #ill !o on to elu idate* an do more to en!a!e and involve "eo"le and ommunities than limate han!e. +eak oil edu ator /i hard Heinber! uses the analo!y of a ar2 JAt the most su"erfi ial level* #e ould say that limate han!e is an end-of-tail"i"e "roblem* #hile "eak oil is an into-fuel-tank "roblem.J ,ne ould add to this that "eo"le "er eive themselves as bein! inherently more affe ted by rises in the "ri e of a key ommodity su h as liHuid fuels than by han!es to the limate. ,ne of the thin!s "eak oil does very effe tively is "ut a mirror u" to a ommunity and ask2 J$hat has ha""ened to the ability of this ommunity to a urately identify and "rovide for its basi needs8J Allo#in! "eo"le to mentally e%"lore #hat their urrent lifestyles #ould be like if the inflo# of hea" oil #ere to ease is a "o#erful #ay to !et "eo"le to think about the vulnerability of their oil-de"endent state. -t an fo us the mind more than limate han!e be ause it an seem to be more obviously relevant to "eo"le1s everyday lives. Also* for some* barrels of oil are easier to visualise than tonnes of !as. -f the 1early-to""ers1 su h as Cam"bell and Skrebo#ski are ri!ht* "eak oil #ill be!in to visibly im"a t our lives #ithin a fe# years. The im"a ts of limate han!e are still seen by many* des"ite the e%traordinary floodin! of the summer of '((D and the a eleratin! olla"se of the Ar ti i e* as a more !radually unfoldin! "ro ess* #hile those of "eak oil may be mu h more immediate. Climate han!e is* ri!htly or #ron!ly* seen as a "roblem that #ill "rimarily affe t the develo"in! #orld before it affe ts the develo"ed #orld* #hi h* ironi ally* is lar!ely res"onsible for reatin! the "roblem in the first "la e. The same is true* initially at least* for "eak oil. $hile #e in the $est an theorise about #hat the im"a ts of "eak oil mi!ht be* for many develo"in! ountries it is already a !rim reality. -ndeed* their enfor ed redu ed onsum"tion* sometimes termed 1demand destru tion1* ould be seen as redu in! onsum"tion !lobally* thereby sto""in! runa#ay "ri es for those of us #ho an still afford liHuid fuels. &ost ountries in Afri a* Asia and South Ameri a are already e%"erien in! the effe ts of "eak oil. Ar!entina is fa in! its #orst ener!y shorta!e for t#enty years* #ith #ides"read "o#er uts and natural !as shorta!es affe tin! "ubli trans"ort. +o#er uts in +akistan have led to riots* and in -raH some "rovin ial offi ials have be!un dis onne tin! "o#er stations from the national !rid so as to kee" the ener!y !enerated to themselves. -ran has introdu ed "etrol
rationin!* and the E6 re ently #arned the Sri Lankan Government that they #ill be unable to ontinue their humanitarian #ork in the ountry due to fuel shorta!es. -n E!anda* !rid "o#er shorta!es have shut do#n the "i"eline #hi h brin!s diesel into the ountry from =enya* a kind of "eak oil 1feedba k loo"1. -n 6i!eria only >I out of DI "o#er "lants #ork* and bla kouts ost the e onomy N> billion a year. 6i ara!ua is no# runnin! at a national ener!y defi it of '(-@(O* #ith the national ener!y om"any havin! to shut do#n #hole ities for C->( hours at a time. Costa /i a has re!ular bla kouts* as does the Domini an /e"ubli * #here bla kouts #hi h ori!inally only affe ted the "oor barrio distri ts no# e%tend to the e% lusive residential distri ts. Thus far* the #ealthier nations have been able to kee" "eak oil at arm1s len!th thanks to an e onomi ushion #hi h insulates us from risin! "ri es* but only u" to a ertain "oint. $here e%a tly that "oint lies is hard to assess and nobody kno# for sure* other than to say that* if the "ri e of oil rises above N>(' a barrel* it #ill break the "revious .ad5usted for inflation0 fi!ure that aused a re ession in the >ID(s. Beyond N>(' a barrel #e are into un harted territory* but its im"a ts on the e onomy are unlikely to be benefi ial. +eak oil and limate han!e must be seen as eHually "ressin! drivers for han!e.
The contradictions of the Hirsch 3eport

$hen the ES De"artment of 7ner!y ommissioned /obert Hirs h and his ollea!ues to #rite a re"ort lookin! at miti!ation strate!ies for "eak oil* little ould they have sus"e ted #hat they #ere !oin! to !et. -t also seems that Hirs h himself #as un"re"ared for #here the re"ort #ould take him* and #hat he #ould end u" #ritin!. -n an intervie# follo#in! the re"ort1s release he mused u"on the re"ort1s on lusions2 JThere1s no Huestion in my mind at least that "eakin! is likely to o ur in maybe the ne%t >( or >B years. So if de"letion is as hi!h as some "eo"le think it ould be* #e1re in a very serious* serious "roblem. &u h #orse than the #orst that #e ould think of. This "roblem is truly fri!htenin!. This "roblem is like nothin! that - have ever seen in my lifetime and the more you think about it and the more you look at the numbers* the more uneasy any observer !ets. -t1s so easy to sound alarmist* and - fear that "art of #hat -1m sayin! may sound alarmist* but there sim"ly is no Huestion that the risks here are beyond anythin! that any of us have ever dealt #ith. JThe risks to our e onomies and our ivilisation are enormous* and "eo"le don1t #ant to hear that. - don1t #ant to think about that. That1s a very un omfortable thin! to think about. And - #ill tell you that it took some time after that realisation set in to be able to emer!e and try to be "ositive and onstru tive about this "roblem. This is a really in redibly diffi ult* and in redibly severe "roblem.J JA really in redibly diffi ult and in redibly severe "roblemJ - learly not a man to min e his #ords. Short of 5ust s ra#lin! JAaar!h3J* this #as as lose as one ould !et to really onveyin! the immensity of the hallen!e of "eak oil. The Hirs h /e"ort #as dynamite* and is seen by many in the "eak oil ommunity as bein! a seminal do ument* the first 1offi ial1 do ument to really take "eak oil seriously. Ho#ever* it is also #orthy of dee"er ins"e tion* as it is not 5ust a do ument about "eak oil but it also offers an illuminatin! and terrifyin! insi!ht
into the res"onses to the hallen!e of "eak oil that our leaders mi!ht "ursue in order to kee" the li!hts on and the #heels turnin!* if #e fail to ome u" #ith anythin! better. The nub of the re"ort1s "roblems an be summarised in the term Jviable miti!ation o"tionsJ. This term a""ears in the oft-Huoted "ara!ra"h from the e%e utive summary2 JThe "eakin! of #orld oil "rodu tion "resents the ES and the #orld #ith an un"re edented risk mana!ement "roblem. As "eakin! is a""roa hed* liHuid fuel "ri es and "ri e volatility #ill in rease dramati ally* and #ithout timely miti!ation* the e onomi * so ial and "oliti al osts #ill be un"re edented. <iable miti!ation o"tions e%ist on both the su""ly and demand sides* but to have substantial im"a t* they must be initiated more than a de ade in advan e of "eakin!.J The re"ort1s definition of #hat these o"tions mi!ht be are "rofoundly at odds #ith #hat this book #ill "ro"ose. For Hirs h* viable miti!ation o"tions are sou!ht from the basi "remise that the sho# must !o on in its urrent form* that business as usual must be "reserved at all osts. -n an intervie# - did #ith /i hard Heinber!* - asked him #hat he sa# as bein! the re"ort1s limitations. JThe im"lied !oal Lof the re"ortM is to kee" business as usual !oin! as lon! as "ossible by any means ne essary* in ludin! usin! oal to make liHuid fuel. ,f ourse* if it #ere feasible on any lar!e s ale* this #ould "rodu e a limate atastro"he* but that #as om"letely overlooked in the re"ort. There1s no eviden e of on ern for limate han!e issues #hatsoever in the re"ort. The !oal of the authors is to su!!est ho# #e ould kee" the en!ines of modernity runnin! as lon! as "ossible.J -n '((C* at the Asso iation for the Study of +eak ,il onferen e in -taly* - heard /obert Hirs h !ive a talk alled 1&iti!ation of +eak ,il2 &akin! the Case2 more numbers and some Huestions1* #hi h built on the '((B re"ort and set out a 1 rash "ro!ramme1 to kee" all the ars in the ES on the road. His "lan* he told the assembled audien e* #ould ost N> trillion a year* and #ould involve a massive e%"ansion of oal-to-liHuids* e%tra tion from tar sands* !as-toliHuids and so on. - a""eared to be one of only a handful of dele!ates lookin! utterly horrified at this "ro"osal and thinkin! - must have misunderstood #hat he had said. - hadn1t. &usin! aloud later on Transition Culture about the im"li ations of Hirs h1s talk* - #rote2 JHirs h "resented learly #hat ha""ens #hen one takes a "urely "eak oil "ers"e tive #ithout the inte!ration of a limate han!e one. For me* Hirs h laid out a lear and "erfe tly reasoned ar!ument #hy #e annot "ossibly kee" all our ars !oin! and #hy #e need to break our addi tion to the ar. He 5ust hadn1t realised that that #as #hat he #as doin!.J -ma!ine if the readers of this book #ere !iven a N> trillion a year bud!et to initiate and drive a "ro!ramme of !lobal "o#erdo#n - think #hat ould be a hieved3 There #as some very dan!erous thinkin! and there #ere some eHually dan!erous basi assum"tions in Hirs h1s "resentation. - #ould not #ish to take a#ay from the usefulness of the Hirs h /e"ort and his #ork on de"letion "rofiles* but the re ommendations in his talk* in the #ron! hands* ould lead to "oli y hoi es bein! taken #hi h are in effe t olle tive sui ide. The same really a""lies to the ori!inal Hirs h /e"ort. -f your startin! assum"tion is that the sho# must !o on at all osts* you #ill s rabble around for #hatever strate!ies and
te hnolo!ies mi!ht* in theory* allo# you to do so. The 1 rash "ro!ramme1 advo ated by Hirs h #ould !reatly hasten the headlon! "lun!e to#ards limate haos. Both the Hirs h /e"ort and the Stern /e"ort* as seen in Fi!ure D* illustrate the "erils of lookin! at these t#o issues in isolation. Alternatively* #hen "eak oil and limate han!e are seen as inse"arable* #e need to om"letely rethink our 1viable miti!ation o"tions1* as #ell as a kno#led!e that business-as-usual is untenable. $hat 1viable miti!ation o"tions1 mi!ht look like #hen the t#o are brou!ht to!ether #ill be e%"lored as this book "ro!resses* but the Hirs h /e"ort offers us a lear e%"osition of #hat they absolutely must not be. The other key as"e t of the Hirs h /e"ort is its assessment of timin!. $e #ill need* it ar!ues* Jmore than a de ade in advan e of "eakin!J to "re"are the e onomy for this transition* "referably t#enty years. $hile this is a soberin! #ay of lookin! at the s ale of the hallen!e* think that on e a so iety de ides to move* thin!s an ha""en very Hui kly. Lester Bro#n ites the e%am"le of ho# the ES e onomy re-!eared itself entirely at the be!innin! of $orld $ar --. +resident /oosevelt* havin! set ambitious arms "rodu tion !oals* said2 JLet no man say it annot be done.J The !reatest e%"ansion in out"ut #as in >IA'* #ith the "rodu tion and sale of "rivate ars bein! banned* housebuildin! and road onstru tion halted* and drivin! for any non-essential "ur"ose "rohibited. Bro#n #rites2 JThe automobile industry #ent from "rodu in! nearly A million ars in >IA> to "rodu in! 'A*((( tanks and >D*((( armoured ars in >IA' - but only ''@*((( ars* and most of them #ere "rodu ed early in the year* before the onversion be!an. 7ssentially the auto industry #as losed do#n in >IA' throu!h the end of >IAA. -n >IA(* the Enited States "rodu ed some A*((( air raft. -n >IA'* it "rodu ed A)*(((. By the end of the #ar* more than B*((( shi"s #ere added to the >*((( that made u" the Ameri an &er hant Fleet in >I@I.J $hen so iety de ides to "ut its #ei!ht behind han!e* thin!s an move very fast. A number of relatively small han!es in le!islation* !ivin! "eo"le more money for ener!y from mi ro!eneration than they1d "ay the !rid* arbon rationin!* thorou!h ado"tion of the #hole "erson "aradi!m and han!es to "lannin! .i.e. "romotin! lo al a!ri ulture and o-housin!0 #ill a elerate thin!s !reatly. $hile some of this needs to be driven at a national !overnment level* mu h of the momentum and "ressure* as #ell as the diversity of "ro5e ts and initiatives that need san tion or su""ort from !overnment* an ome from the lo al level. +eo"le need to hun!er for these han!es* and to see them as more desirable than the the #ay thin!s are. $hile "eak oil is a ru ial insi!ht into #hat is ahead of us* it is also essential to be mindful of some unsavoury "ro"osals bein! sneaked in on the ba k of it. :ust as limate han!e is sometimes "ut for#ard as the 5ustifi ation for e%"anded nu lear "o#er and the illusory hydro!en e onomy* so "eak oil .as the Hirs h re"ort so !ra"hi ally illustrates0 an be used to instil a fear that #e ur!ently need liHuid fuels from #herever #e an sHuee;e them. Some ar!ue that it #ill usher in a Golden A!e of oal. -t is im"ortant to remain alert to that. As #e #ill see in +art T#o* this is a risis #hi h is about mu h more than #hat #e1ll "ut in our "etrol tanks. The lesson from the Hirs h /e"ort* then* is that in "ro"osin! solutions to limate han!e and "eak oil #e must al#ays be sure that #e are askin! the ri!ht Huestions. The Huestion is not JHo# an #e kee" everythin! !oin! as it is8J $e should instead ask ho# #e an ensure #ellTransition Handbook free edit version is released under GFDL and Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike. By ontributin! to or editin! these "a!es you a!ree to release your #ork under these terms.
bein! for all #ithin realisti ener!y onstraints. /ather than de idin! our "lan of a tion first and then "i kin! the ener!y o"tions to mat h it* #e should start by basin! our hoi es on askin! the ri!ht Huestions about the ener!y available to under"in our 5ust "ur"oses and lo al "lans. The Hirs h /e"ort fails to ask the ri!ht Huestions. $hen devisin! solutions* #e must address the fundamental reality of human bein!* limate han!e and "eak oil from the outset. The 1viable miti!ation o"tions1 #e ome u" #ith #ill de"end entirely on the nature of the Huestions #e ask. Ho"efully* this e%amination of the Hirs h /e"ort has been useful in establishin! #hy 5ust lookin! at "eak oil or limate han!e in isolation is both futile and "otentially dan!erous.
Chapter : The view from the mountain-top

- on e had a onversation #ith an elderly man - met in a "ub* #hi h - thou!ht #as about "eak oil. - talked about my understandin! of it and he interru"ted o asionally #ith fairly inno uous inter5e tions* and - thou!ht the onversation #as !ettin! some#here interestin!. At the end thou!h* he said* by #ay of a losin! flourish* J4es* - used some of that on a table on e - ame u" lovely.J By this sta!e in the book - ho"e that you* unlike my elderly friend* #ill be feelin! relatively u" to s"eed #ith the nature of the "rin i"al hallen!es #e fa e. 4ou #ill be a#are by no# that our fossil-fuel-saturated lives #ill under!o a radi al redesi!n #hether #e #ant them to or not* but you may Huite reasonably be #onderin! #hat they mi!ht look like at the end of this redesi!n "ro ess.
4valuating possible ways forward

- do not have a rystal ball. - don1t kno# ho# the t#in rises of "eak oil and limate han!e #ill unfold - nobody does. - don1t kno# the e%a t date of "eak oil* and a!ain* nobody does. Similarly* - don1t kno# if and #hen #e #ill e% eed the 'QC limate threshold* and #hat #ill ha""en if #e do. $hat - am ertain of is that #e are !oin! to see e%traordinary levels of han!e in every as"e t of our lives. -ndeed #e have to see e%traordinary levels of han!e if #e are to navi!ate our so ieties a#ay from de"enden e on hea" oil in su h a #ay that they #ill be able to retain* if not im"rove* their so ial and e olo!i al oheren e and stability* and also live in a #orld #ith a relatively stable limate. -n terms of lookin! for#ard* many "eo"le have set out different s enarios for #hat the future mi!ht hold. - have tra#led throu!h a lot of these for insi!hts as to ho# life beyond the "eak mi!ht be. $hat - have set out to do in Fi!ure ) .".AC0 is to "osition these very different s enarios in relation to ea h other* startin! at one end #ith those that see te hnolo!y as bein! all-"o#erful and a"able of solvin! any "roblem "ut before it* and at the other e%treme those #ho see te hnolo!y as havin! no "la e and the fra!mentation and de entralisation of so iety as bein! inevitable. - started out thinkin! that this s"e trum #ould be linear* but a tually both e%tremes taken to their lo!i al on lusion result in olla"se - #hat David Holm!ren alls the 1Atlantis
s enario1 - #here so iety im"lodes and disinte!rates. As a #ay of under"innin! this diverse s"e trum of "ossibilities* - have used three mindsets2

Ada"tation2 s enarios that assume #e an someho# invent our #ay out of trouble 7volution2 s enarios #hi h reHuire a de!ree of olle tive evolution* a han!e of mindset* but #hi h assume that so iety* albeit in a lo#-ener!y* more lo alised form* #ill retain its oheren e Colla"se2 s enarios that assume that the inevitable out ome of "eak oil and limate han!e #ill be the fra turin! and disinte!ration* either sudden or !radual* of so iety as #e kno# it.
From the dia!ram .Fi!ure )0 #e an see that those s enarios in the to" left hand se tion .the Ada"tation #ed!e0* all rely on te hnolo!y* e onomi !ro#th and the ontinuation of e onomi !lobalisation to solve the "roblems that "eak oil is "resentin!. &any of them don1t even allo# for the miti!ation of limate han!e. +ut sim"ly* #e don1t need to han!e ourselves* 5ust our li!ht bulbs. S enario "lanner +ierre $a k has said that these kinds of s enarios have a fatal fla#* in that they rely on #hat he terms the JThree &ira lesJ* namely2 >. A te hnolo!i al mira le .i.e. e%traordinary ne# e%"loration and "rodu tion levels or free ener!y0 '. A so io-"oliti al mira le .that !overnment "oli ies and ultural values #ill allo# so ial e% lusion to be eradi ated0 @. A fis al mira le .namely that the "ubli se tor #ill fund the im"lementation of that s enario0 The 7volution s enarios reHuire the a tual evolution of our ulture as a #hole* rather than 5ust fo usin! on te hnolo!i al solutions to 1fi%1 the immediate "roblem. This a""roa h e hoes 7instein1s famous #ords2 J$e annot solve our "roblems #ith the same thinkin! #e used #hen #e reated them.J These s enarios ar!ue that #e have to evolve our #ay out of this one. Lthe dia!ram needs a ne# s enario involvin! both the #hole "erson "aradi!m and om"lementarityM -t is the unlikelihood of all of $a k1s three mira les o urrin! that leads me to believe that the Ada"tation s enarios aren1t !oin! to ha""en* and that the 7volution ones are the most likely. Colla"se is* of ourse* al#ays "ossible* but - like to think of it as bein! like The Ghost of Christmas Future in Di kens1 A Christmas Carol. That is* it sho#s ho# the future #ill be unless #e han!e #hat #e are doin!. -t is not inevitable. As #e #ill e%"lore in more detail later in this se tion* mu h of #hat #e #ould need to do to "re"are for the Colla"se s enarios #e #ould need to do any#ay to "re"are for the 7volution s enarios. - #ould ar!ue that rather than tryin! to terrify "eo"le into han!e throu!h "resentin! them #ith visions of Colla"se* the 7volution s enarios* es"e ially the one involvin! the #hole "erson "aradi!m* ould "rovide a vision of an end !oal so enti in! that so iety #ould #ant to en!a!e in the transition to#ards them. S enarios in the 7volution s"e trum ran!e from the idea that #hat is needed is a national on erted "lan of a tion to break a#ay from de"enden e on fossil fuels .#hat Heinber! terms 1+o#erdo#n10 to lo alisation - the on e"t that #e re-"rioritise the lo al and re-value the
human bein!* and that the influen e of hu!e entralised systems be!ins to de line. -t is my assertion that #hen "eak oil and the need to res"ond to limate han!e are fa tored into our res"onses* Business as Esual .and the other s enarios in the Ada"tation "aradi!m0 has no lon!-term viability.
Why a future with less energy ends up looking somewhat inevitable

The #ork of Bryn Davidson of the Dynami Cities +ro5e t in <an ouver BC* Canada* offers a "erha"s more a essible and on ise overvie# of "ost-"eak s enarios. He has reated a table #ith t#o a%es .Fi!ure I0. The first* from left to ri!ht* sho#s the ra"idity #ith #hi h de"letion hits. As #e have already seen* many indi ators sho# that the oil "eak is mu h loser than #e think* "la in! us almost ertainly in the ra"id de"letion half of the table. The to" to bottom a%is refle ts the de!ree of "roa tivity or rea tivity taken by !overnment and business. -n essen e* Davidson ar!ues that slo# de"letion and a rea tive res"onse #ould result in 1Burnout1* a stubborn lin!in! to business as usual #hi h results in a headlon! lur h into limate haos. -f #e have ra"id de"letion and a rea tive res"onse* the results #ill be atastro"hi 2 a so ietal breakdo#n and olla"se on the s ale of some of those throu!hout history* su h as the &ayans and the /omans* as des ribed so learly in :ared Diamond1s re ent book* Colla"se or in $illiam /. Catton1s ,vershoot. Slo# de"letion and a "roa tive res"onse ould lead to #hat Davidson alls 1Te hno &arkets1* that is* a te hnolo!y-derived sustainable develo"ment. Ho#ever* to !o ba k to the Hirs h /e"ort* that is only "ossible #ith noti e at least ten years .and "referably t#enty years10 ahead of the "eak - time #e almost ertainly don1t have. The final s enario Davidson alls 1The Lean 7 onomy1 or 1+o#erdo#n1. -n effe t* - #ould ar!ue .and Davidson1s !ra"hi "uts it very learly0 that a "lanned and ur!ent ener!y des ent is really the only desirable o"tion left to us. Both 1Burn-out1 and 1Colla"se1 are "la es #e really don1t #ant to !o. For a final #ay of distillin! the essen e of these many and varied s enarios* - turn to a re ent re"ort entitled 1Des endin! the ,il +eak1 by the City of +ortland +eak ,il Task For e* #hi h assessed the ran!e of "ossible im"a ts of "eak oil on the ity* and dre# from that e%"loration three "ossible s enarios. They offer a on ise and tidy #ay of lookin! at the realisti o"tions fa in! us. >. Lon!-term Transition. -n this s enario the de line in su""lies and rise in "ri es both o ur fairly !radually* allo#in! miti!ation o"tions to be "ut in "la e to o"e #ith it. -t foresees a B(O ut in oil onsum"tion over '( years* and althou!h the be!innin! of this transition is a bum"y "lateau* over time the do#n#ard trend #ill be ome evident. '. ,il Sho ks. This s enario is similar to that above* but is "un tuated by Jsudden disru"tions and "ri e hikes* tri!!erin! "eriodi sustained emer!en iesJ. @. Disinte!ration. Here* the im"a ts of "eak oil be ome so severe that the fabri of so iety be!ins to unravel* leadin! to Jso ially atastro"hi om"etition for s ar e resour es* in ludin! food* shelter and ener!yJ.
Clearly these are "resented in de reasin! order of desirability. The "oint - #ant to make is that "re"arin! 5ust for limate han!e and not takin! "eak oil into onsideration offers little "rote tion a!ainst ea h of the above. -n ea h eventuality* it is the de!ree of resilien e .a on e"t e%"lored in more detail in Cha"ter @0 that is in "la e in advan e that #ill make the differen e. <andana Shiva* the -ndian a tivist and advo ate of sustainable a!ri ulture* s"eaks of visitin! some of the areas hit by the '((A tsunami* and says that it #as the villa!es #ith the !reatest resilien e that #ere u" and runnin! relatively Hui kly* and those that had dismantled their resilient e onomies in favour of an im"ort-de"endent* tourism-based model that #ere hit the #orst2 JThe indi!enous tribes of Andaman and 6i obar* the ,n!er* the :a#aras* the Sentinelese* the Shom"en* #ho live #ith a li!ht e olo!i al foot"rint* had the lo#est asualties even thou!h* in the -ndian sub ontinent* they #ere the losest to the e"i entre of the earthHuake.J -n many #ays ea h of these three s enarios reHuires that #e "ut in "la e more to fall ba k u"on than #e have so far. -n ea h s enario #e #ill need a stren!thened* more lo alised infrastru ture and the ability to meet our basi needs more lo ally. $hile S enarios ' and @ are learly less desirable* in "re"arin! for them #e a tually make S enario > more likely to ome about. ,ur han es of a "ositive out ome are enhan ed if that is #hat #e are strivin! for. For many* the "ossibilities of S enarios ' and @ ins"ire "ani and a "la in! of self"reservation above more ommunity-fo used res"onses. This is a traditional rea tion but* #ould venture* neither a very healthy nor a ne essary one. $e1ve seen that in diffi ult times #e need ea h other more* not less. $hen the #hole "erson "aradi!m be omes dominant* #e1ll hoose ea h other in all onditions. ,ne of the key ar!uments of this book is that #hen fa ed #ith these three s enarios* our best han e of a su essful olle tive transition #ill not ome from "resentin! "eo"le #ith the "ossibility of S enarios ' and @. +sy holo!ists $inter and =ro!er #rite that Jhealthy fun tionin! reHuires that #e have faith that our needs #ill be met in the futureK #ithout this onfiden e* our trust in the #orld is dama!ed. Dama!ed trust an lead to four neuroti rea tions that are likely to im"a t environmental behaviour2 nar issism* de"ression* "aranoia and om"ulsion.J ,ur best han e of dealin! #ith limate han!e and "eak oil #ill emer!e from our ability to en!a!e #hole "eo"le in om"lementarity and seein! the transition to S enario > as an attra tive adventure* somethin! in #hi h they an invest their ho"e and their ener!y. This book #ill !o on to e%"lore ho# this ould be done. For those involved in tryin! to realise these 1evolutionary1 s enarios* #hat is the nature of their role8 David =orten sums it u" as bein! Ja dual role - hos"i e and mid#ife.J -n other #ords* as #ell as ins"irin! "eo"le to find their voi es durin! the terminal de line of the urrent !lobalised oil-de"endent infrastru ture* #e are nurturin! the emer!in! ne# lo alised e onomies that #ill re"la e it. Sharif Abdullah #rites that Jfor the emer!in! so iety . . . our role is to om"assionately assist in the birth of a ne# #ay of a tin! in the #orld. As #ith any birthin! "ro ess* there #ill be some "ain and trauma asso iated #ith the birth. ,ur role is to minimise the "ain and nurse the ne# so iety to full health.J - believe that the only #ay throu!h the monumental transition ne essitated by the "assin! of the A!e of Chea" ,il #ill involve a rethinkin! of ho# #e re!ard the "eo"le around us* those #e1ll en!a!e. The tools #e have had at our dis"osal are inadeHuate2 #e need a ne# toolkit .some of #hi h is e%"lored in +art Four0* as #ell as a ne# #ay of seein! our role. ,ne of the
Huotes that is most useful here omes not from an environmentalist* but an artist. The Fren h "ainter and s ul"tor :ean Dubuffet #rote2 JArt does not lie do#n on the bed that is made for itK it runs a#ay as soon as one says its nameK it loves to be in o!nito. -ts best moments are #hen it for!ets #hat it is alled.J +erha"s our #ork "re"arin! ommunities for transition should similarly be onstantly reinventin! itself and for!ettin! #hat it is alled2 a reative* en!a!in!* "layful "ro ess* #herein #e su""ort our ommunities durin! the loss of the familiar* and ins"ire and reate a ne# lo#er ener!y infrastru ture that1s ultimately an im"rovement on today1s.
Why %4nergy 5escent%1

Durin! this book - make freHuent use of the term 1ener!y des ent1. This may be a ne# term to you* so - #ill e%"lain #hat - mean by it. $hen - first found out about "eak oil* it "u;;led me that the fo us #as solely on the to" "art of the !ra"h* the "eak itself. A raft of !eolo!ists* a ademi s and #riters #ere e%"lorin! the to" of the lassi bell urveK #ould it be a !entle des ent* a 1bum"y "lateau1 or an abru"t liff ed!e8 6o-one* ho#ever* a""eared to be lookin! at the do#n#ard half of the !ra"h. This stru k me as bein! far more im"ortant than the "eak itself* but it looked rather like the un harted territory everyone #as avoidin!. A so iety #ithout a ess to fossil fuels #ould be able to do seventy to a hundred times less #ork than one #ith them* and #ould* by ne essity* look very different from the "resent. Alon!side the Huestion of #hen "eak oil mi!ht be rea hed is another eHually im"ortant "oint* that of 1net ener!y1. 6et ener!y* also kno#n as 17ner!y /eturn on 7ner!y -nvested1 .7/,7-0 has been defined as Jthe ener!y delivered by an ener!y-obtainin! a tivity om"ared to the ener!y reHuired to !et itJ. ,il "rodu tion in the ES in the >I@(s had a net 7/,7- of over >((2>* meanin! that for ea h unit of ener!y used in the e%tra tion "ro ess* more than >(( #ere obtained. This is an in redible ener!y return* un"re edented in history. Ho#ever* !iven the in reasin! amount of #ork #e had to "ut into e%tra tin! oil and the in reased refinin! needed due to the lo#er Huality of the oil #e found* by >ID( that had fallen to @(2> and is no# some#here bet#een >>2> and >)2>. Globally* the avera!e is around '(2>. This is mostly for e%tra tin! oil from mature fields. The 7/,7- for ne# fields a""ears to be mu h lo#er. $ind* for e%am"le* has a net ener!y of >>2> .althou!h that ratio #ould be mu h lo#er if orre ted for the ba ku" systems needed for #hen the #ind is not blo#in!0* and "hotovoltai s bet#een '.B2> and A.@2>. Hydro is the hi!hest* at over '@2>* but many of the "lanet1s "otential hydro sites are already develo"ed* many e%istin! hydro s hemes are e%"erien in! "roblems from siltin!* and drier summers due to limate han!e are also redu in! out"ut in some "la es. For e%am"le* Costa /i a1s hydroele tri a"a ity fell by 'BO in '((D due to the dry summer. -n terms of 7/,7-* it is the substitutes for the liHuid fuels that make our so iety "ossible that are revealed to offer no substitute at all. Biodiesel has a net ener!y of about '2>* ethanol from su!ar some#here around A2> .but as hi!h as )2> in Bra;il* o#in! to their favourable limate0 and orn bioethanol varies bet#een (.)2> and >.C2>. 6one of these omes lose to oil* and Charles Hall at the State Eniversity of 6e# 4ork ar!ues that to offer any remotely viable ontribution to so iety* a liHuid fuel should not be de"endent on subsidies from "etroleum and should have an 7/,7- of at least B2>. The de line in 7/,7- in our
ener!y sour es* to!ether #ith the ombined "eaks of oil* !as* oal* and uranium ."robably in that order0* means that #e need to a kno#led!e that #e are as ener!y-ri h a so iety today as #e are ever likely to be. ,n further investi!ation* it turns out that a handful of "eo"le had a tually be!un thinkin! about #hat this 5ourney 1do#n the slo"e1 mi!ht look like. The first #ere Ho#ard and 7lisabeth ,dum* #ho in their '((> book % Prosperous &ay Down #rote2 JThat the #ay do#n an be "ros"erous is the e% itin! vie#"oint #hose time has ome. Des ent is a ne# frontier to a""roa h #ith ;eal. . . . -f everyone understands the ne essity of the #hole so iety ada"tin! to less* then so iety an "ull to!ether #ith a ommon mission to sele t #hat is essential. +residents* !overnors* and lo al leaders an e%"lain the "roblem and lead so iety in a shared mission. &illions of "eo"le the #orld over* if they see the o""ortunity* an be united in the ommon Huest for a "ros"erous #ay do#n. The alternative is a #orld of selfish battles for #hatever resour es remain.J They ar!ued for the need to "re"are in advan e for the inevitable de line in net ener!y availability. This e hoes the Hirs h /e"ort1s stark statement that any so ietal-s ale res"onse to "eak oil Jneeds to be initiated more than a de ade in advan e of "eakin!J. The term 1ener!y des ent1 #as further develo"ed by David Holm!ren* the o-founder of "erma ulture* #ho in '((@ #rote2 J- use the term 1des ent1 as the least loaded #ord that honestly onveys the inevitable* radi al redu tion of material onsum"tion and9or human numbers that #ill hara terise the de linin! de ades and enturies of fossil fuel abundan e and availability.J &ost re ently* Ted Trainer of the Eniversity of 6e# South $ales has ar!ued* in the essential 1/ene#able 7ner!y Cannot Sustain a Consumer So iety1* that #hile rene#able ener!y sour es #ill have a key role to "lay beyond the "eak* the idea that a $estern onsumer so iety an ontinue* let alone !ro# #hile bein! "o#ered entirely by rene#ables* is absurd* and that redesi!nin! for a far lo#er ener!y #orld is inevitable. He #rites2 JThere is a #ides"read assum"tion that a onsumer- a"italist so iety* based on the determination to in rease "rodu tion* sales* trade investment* 1livin! standards1 and the GD+ as fast as "ossible and indefinitely* an be run on rene#able ener!y. . . . But if this assum"tion is #ron!* #e are in for atastro"hi "roblems in the very near future and #e should be e%"lorin! radi al so ial alternatives ur!ently.J -n the absen e of a universally a!reed definition of the term 1ener!y des ent1* - #ould define it thus2 JThe ontinual de line in net ener!y su""ortin! humanity* a de line that mirrors the as ent in net ener!y that has taken "la e sin e the -ndustrial /evolution. -t also refers to a future s enario in #hi h humanity has su essfully ada"ted to de linin! net fossil fuel ener!y availability and has be ome more lo alised and self-reliant. -t is a term favoured by "eo"le lookin! to#ards ener!y "eak as an o""ortunity for "ositive han!e rather than an inevitable disaster.J As Colin Cam"bell of the Asso iation for the Study of +eak ,il e%"lains* the im"ortant thin! about ener!y des ent is not #hen "eak oil o urs* but rather the shift in "er e"tion that the A!e of 7asy ,il is dra#in! to a lose. -t is not so mu h the rate of han!e as the han!e of dire tion that is im"ortant. The on e"t of ener!y des ent* and of the Transition a""roa h* is a sim"le one2 that the future #ith less oil ould be "referable to the "resent* but only if
suffi iently numerous and diverse individuals in ommunities en!a!e to a""ly reativity and ima!ination in the desi!n of this transition. $e have a hoi e. $e an des end the hill on #hi h #e are standin! by harnessin! ima!ination and drive om"arable to #hat !ot us to the to" in the first "la e. The reality is that the only #ay from here is do#n .in net ener!y terms0* but that 1do#n1 need not mean de"rivation* misery and olla"se. Tryin! to build a Heath-/obinson-style 1e%tension1 to the hill .built on foundations of oal-to-liHuids* tar sands and so on0 - a ri kety artifi ial slo"e that attem"ts to deny the !eolo!i al reality of the hill itself - only means #e1ll have further to fall. The idea of ener!y des ent is that ea h ste" do#n the hill ould be a ste" to#ards sanity* to#ards "la e and to#ards #holeness. -t is a omin! to #ho #e really are* similar to ho# members of a busy family redis over ea h other durin! a "o#er ut. 7ner!y des ent is* ultimately* about the as ension of other ener!ies - the re-ener!isin! of individuals* ommunities and ulture - and is the key to our realisti ally embra in! the "ossibilities of our situation rather than bein! over#helmed by the hallen!es.
Chapter !: Why rebuilding resilience is as important as cutting carbon emissions

What is resilience1
The on e"t of resilien e is entral to this book. -n e olo!y* the term resilien e refers to an e osystemRs ability to roll #ith e%ternal sho ks and attem"ted enfor ed han!es. $alker et al. define it thus2 S/esilien e is the a"a ity of a system to absorb disturban e and reor!anise #hile under!oin! han!e* so as to still retain essentially the same fun tion* stru ture* identity and feedba ks.T -n the onte%t of ommunities and settlements* it refers to their ability to not olla"se at first si!ht of oil or food shorta!es* and to their ability to res"ond #ith ada"tability to disturban e. The E= tru k driversR dis"ute of '((( offers a valuable lesson here. $ithin the s"a e of three days* the E= e onomy #as brou!ht to the brink* as it be ame lear that the ountry #as about a day a#ay from food rationin! and ivil unrest. Shortly before the dis"ute #as resolved* Sir +eter Davis* Chairman of SainsburyRs* sent a letter to Tony Blair sayin! that food shorta!es #ould a""ear in Sdays rather than #eeksT. The fra!ility of the illusion that* as D7F/A said in a '((@ statement* Snational food se urity is neither ne essary nor is it desirable*T be ame !larin!ly obvious. -t be ame lear that #e no lon!er have any resilien e left to fall ba k on* and are* in reality* three days a#ay from hun!er at any moment* evokin! the old sayin! that S ivilisation is only three meals dee"T. $e have be ome om"letely reliant on the utterly unreliable* and #e have no +lan B.
The on e"t of resilien e is distin t from the more-often-mentioned on e"t of sustainability. A ommunity mi!ht* for e%am"le* am"ai!n for "lasti s re y lin!* #here all of its industrial and domesti "lasti #aste is olle ted for re y lin!. $hile almost ertainly better for the environment as a #hole* it adds nearly no resilien e to the ommunity. +erha"s a better solution .alon!side the obvious one of "rodu in! less "lasti #aste0* #ould be to develo" other uses for #aste "lasti s reHuirin! minimal "ro essin!* su h as ti!htly om"ressed buildin! blo ks or an insulatin! "rodu t for lo al use. Sim"ly olle tin! it and sendin! it a#ay doesnRt leave the ommunity in a stron!er "osition* nor is the ommunity more able to res"ond reatively to han!e and sho k. The same is true of some of the strate!ies "ut for#ard by limate han!e am"ai!ns that donRt take "eak oil into onsideration. +lantin! trees to reate ommunity #oodlands may lo k u" arbon .thou!h the s ien e is still divided on this0 and be !ood for biodiversity* but does little to build resilien eK #hereas the "lantin! of #ell-desi!ned a!roforestry9food forest "lantin!s does. The &illennium Forests initiative missed a hu!e o""ortunity to "ut in "la e a key resour e2 #e ould by no# have food forests u" and do#n the ountry startin! to bear fruit .both meta"hori ally and literally0. 7 onomist David Flemin! ar!ues that the benefits for a ommunity #ith enhan ed resilien e #ill be that2 U -f one "art is destroyed* the sho k #ill not ri""le throu!h the #hole system U There is #ide diversity of hara ter and solutions develo"ed reatively in res"onse to lo al ir umstan es U -t an meet its needs des"ite the substantial absen e of travel and trans"ort U The other bi! infrastru tures and bureau ra ies of the intermediate e onomy are re"la ed by fit-for-"ur"ose lo al alternatives at drasti ally redu ed ost -n reased resilien e and a stron!er lo al e onomy do not mean that #e "ut a fen e u" around our to#ns and ities and refuse to allo# anythin! in or out. -t is not a re5e tion of ommer e or someho# a return to a rose-tinted version of some ima!ined "ast. -t is an a e"tan e of remarkably dire t a ess to #ell-bein! and an a""roa h to inte!ration of the best #e an re all and devise. $hat it does mean is bein! more "re"ared for a leaner future* more self-reliant* and "rioritisin! the lo al over the im"orted.
The three ingredients of a resilient system

A ordin! to studies of #hat makes e osystems resilient* there are three features that are entral to a systemRs ability to reor!anise itself follo#in! sho ks. They are2 U Diversity U &odularity U Ti!htness of Feedba ks Diversity relates to the number of elements that om"rise a "arti ular system* be they "eo"le* s"e ies* businesses* institutions or sour es of food. The resilien e of a system omes not only from the number of the s"e ies that make u" that diversity* but also from the number of
onne tions bet#een them. Diversity also refers to the diversity of fun tions in our settlements .rather than 5ust relyin! on one V say* tourism or minin!0 and a diversity of "otential res"onses to hallen!es* leadin! to a !reater fle%ibility. Diversity of land use V farms* market !ardens* aHua ulture* forest !ardens* nut tree "lantin!s* and so on V are key to the resilien e of the settlement* and their erosion in re ent years has "aralleled the rise of mono ultures* #hi h are by definition an absen e of diversity. Another meanin! of diversity is that of diversity bet#een systems. The e%a t set of solutions that #ill #ork in one "la e #ill not ne essarily #ork in other "la esK be ause of uniHue demo!ra"hi s and "hysi al attributes* ea h ommunity #ill assemble its o#n solutions* res"onses and tools. This matters for t#o reasons. Firstly be ause it makes to"-do#n a""roa hes almost redundant* as those at the to" la k the kno#led!e of lo al onditions and ho# to res"ond to them. Se ondly* be ause resilien e-buildin! is about #orkin! on small han!es to lots of ni hes in the "la e* makin! lots of small interventions rather than a fe# lar!e ones. The term modularity* a ordin! to e olo!ists Brian $alker and David Salt* relates to Sthe manner in #hi h the om"onents that make u" a system are linkedT. To#ards the end of '((D* the 6orthern /o k bank risis led to ma5or "roblems and un ertainty in the British bankin! system. -t #as aused by over-lendin! to hi!h-risk house-buyers in the ES thousands of miles a#ay* but #ithin a short "eriod of time one system had kno ked on to another and then another* sho#in! ho# the !lobalised net#orks* often trum"eted as one of !lobalisationRs !reat stren!ths* an in fa t also be one of its !reat #eaknesses. The over-net#orked nature of modern* hi!hly onne ted systems allo# sho k to travel ra"idly throu!h them* #ith "otentially disastrous effe ts. A more modular stru ture means that the "arts of a system an more effe tively self-or!anise in the event of sho k. For e%am"le* as a result of the !lobalisation of the food industry* animals and animal "arts are moved around the #orld* leadin! to in reased o urren es of diseases su h as bird flu and foot-and-mouth disease. /edu in! animal trans"ortation and reintrodu in! lo al abattoirs and "ro essin! #ould lead to a more modular system* #ith lo al breeds for lo al markets and a mu h redu ed risk of disease s"readin! #ith the ra"idity that #e have seen in re ent outbreaks. $hen desi!nin! ener!y des ent "ath#ays for Transition -nitiatives* the on e"t of modularity is key2 ma%imisin! modularity #ith more internal onne tions redu es vulnerability to any disru"tions of #ider net#orks. Lo al food systems* lo al investment models* and so on* all add to this modularity* meanin! that #e en!a!e #ith the #ider #orld* but from an ethi of net#orkin! and information sharin! rather than of mutual de"enden e. Ti!htness of Feedba ks refers to ho# Hui kly and stron!ly the onseHuen es of a han!e in one "art of the system are felt and res"onded to in other "arts. $alker and Salt #rite2 SCentralised !overnan e and !lobalisation an #eaken feedba ks. As feedba ks len!then* there is an in reased han e of rossin! a threshold #ithout dete tin! it in a timely fashion.T -n a more lo alised system* the results of our a tions are more obvious. $e donRt #ant e% essive use of "esti ides or other "ollutants in our area* but seem ha""ier to be oblivious to their use in other "arts of the #orld. -n a !lobalised system* the feedba ks about the im"a ts of soil erosion* lo# "ay and "esti ide use "rovide #eak feedba k si!nals. Ti!htenin! feedba k loo"s #ill have benefi ial results* brin!in! the onseHuen es of our a tions loser to
home* rather than so far from our a#areness that they donRt even re!ister. $hen "eo"le live off the !rid in terms of ener!y* they are more mindful about their onsum"tion "artly be ause they are loser to its !eneration V the feedba k loo" is smaller.
6ife before oil wasn7t all bad

These are not ne# ideasK rather they are the unstated "rin i"les that under"inned ho# thin!s al#ays #ere until the ,il A!e be!an. -t an be instru tive to look ba k into the history of our settlements to see ho# "eo"le em"loyed in!enuity and ommon sense before hea" fossil fuels enabled us to do #ithout them. Durin! the >IB(s and C(s in the E= there #as a on erted effort to vilify the lo al* the small* the sim"le* the rusti * the Wold-fashionedR. -t is a "ro ess that ha""ened more re ently in -reland* and is ha""enin! a!!ressively no# in China and -ndia. Car !ood* horse-dra#n art badK on rete !ood* ob badK offi e 5ob !ood* farmin! badK T< !ood* hearthside storytellin! bad. $hile not #ishin! to romanti ise the "ast or "aint an idylli "i ture of lo alised e onomies* #e have ome to believe either that life before oil onsisted of rollin! around in the mud* in est* shovin! youn! boys u" himneys and little elseK or that it #as some idylli #orld #here everyone res"e ted their elders and had roses over the front door. -n fa t there is mu h that #e an learn from and re laim in our history. +eo"le #ere !enerally far more skilled and "ra ti al* lo al e onomies #ere more diverse and resilient* and "eo"le more onne ted to #here their ener!y and food ame from. For e%am"le* in Totnes in Devon in the >I@(s* the entre of to#n ontained a number of allotments and market !ardens* #hi h "rovided most of the ve!etables and some of the fruit onsumed in the to#n. A"art from the rail#ay station* all of the businesses #ere o#ned by lo al "eo"le. Contrast this #ith a re ent survey by the 6e# 7 onomi s Foundation #hi h found that of the >(@ to#ns and villa!es surveyed* A'O #ere #hat they alled WClone To#nsR* #hi h they defined as Sone #hi h had had the individuality of its hi!h street sho"s re"la ed by a mono hrome stri" of !lobal and national hains that mean its retail heart ould easily be mistaken for do;ens of other bland to#n entres a ross the ounty.T Lo ally o#ned businesses are a dyin! breed* and #e are only 5ust startin! to a""re iate ho# im"ortant they are* and the resilien e they !ive to lo al ommunities and their e onomies. ,f ourse* there #as mu h that #as miserable and debilitatin!* and in many #ays there #as a la k of "ersonal hoi e that today #e #ould find stran!e* if not intolerable. Lives #ere shorter* and less JsoftJ as Geor!e &onbiot #rites. Ho#ever* #hile not for a se ond advo atin! that #e model our future on our "ast* - #ould a!ree that #e ou!ht not thro# the baby out #ith the bath#ater. Take a #alk around the endless streets* sho""in! entres* ar "arks and tarma e%"anses of "resent-day London* and then om"are them #ith this se tion from Charles Di kensR Great 7%"e tations2 S$emmi kRs house #as a little #ooden otta!e in the midst of "lots of !arden* and the to" of it #as ut out and "ainted like a battery mounted #ith !uns. . . . WAt the ba k* thereRs a "i!* and there are fo#ls and rabbitsK then* - kno k to!ether my o#n little frame* you see* and !ro# u umbersK and youRll 5ud!e at su""er #hat sort of a salad - an raise. So* sir*R said $emmi k* smilin! a!ain* but seriously too* as he shook his head* Wif you
an su""ose the little "la e besie!ed* it #ould hold out a devil of a time in "oint of "rovisions.R Then* he ondu ted me to a bo#er about a do;en yards off* but #hi h #as a""roa hed by su h in!enious t#ists of "ath that it took Huite a lon! time to !et atK and in this retreat our !lasses #ere already set forth. ,ur "un h #as oolin! in an ornamental lake on #hose mar!in the bo#er #as raised. This "ie e of #ater .#ith an island in the middle #hi h mi!ht have been the salad for su""er0 #as of a ir ular form* and he had onstru ted a fountain in it* #hi h* #hen you set a little mill !oin! and took a ork out of a "i"e* "layed to that "o#erful e%tent that it made the ba k of your hand Huite #et. W- am my o#n en!ineer* and my o#n ar"enter* and my o#n "lumber* and my o#n !ardener* and my o#n :a k of all Trades*R said $emmi k* in a kno#led!in! my om"liments. W$ellK itRs a !ood thin!* you kno#. -t brushes the 6e#!ate ob#ebs a#ay . . .RT Althou!h fi tional* Di kens is "aintin! a "i ture of areas #ithin #alkin! distan e of entral London around >)D(. $emmi k #as simultaneously a onsumer and a "rodu er. &ost of us have lon! sin e abandoned the latter. 6o#adays #e mi!ht all &r $emmi kRs set-u" Wa lo#im"a t buildin! onstru ted from lo al materials set #ithin a biodiverse urban edible lands a"e inte!ratin! "rote ted ro""in!* aHua ulture* hi ken and "i! tra torin!R. By '(() it is "robably a ar "ark.
The cake analogy

- like to use the analo!y of a meta"hori al ake. -n Totnes* as an e%am"le* "rior to the advent of the rail#ays in the >)B(s* the to#n and its hinterland #ere lar!ely self-reliant. -ts milk* heese* meat* seasonal ve!etables and fruit* as #ell as the bulk of its buildin! materials and some of its fabri s #ere all "rodu ed lo ally .until the -ndustrial /evolution* #hen fabri "rodu tion #as moved to the north of 7n!land0. $hat ame in on small sailin! boats u" the /iver Dart to be offloaded at the ?uays #ere Balti timber* a""les for ider from Brittany .the area drank and e%"orted a lot of ider but didnRt !ro# enou!h a""les0 and some #ool. -f* for some reason* those boats sto""ed omin!* the area #ould mana!e. -t #as resilient. The ake #as "rodu ed lo ally. and the i in! and the herries on the to" #ere im"orted. 6o# it is the other #ay round. The ake is im"orted from #herever in the #orld it an be found hea"est* and lo al a!ri ulture "rodu es the i in! and the herries on to". $e have moved from resilient to "re ariously unresilient. The "ro ess of dismantlin! the om"le% and diverse rural e onomy that su""orted ommunities over enturies* and that #as un ons iously desi!ned on the "rin i"les of resilien e has* thanks to the relentless for es of !lobalisation* been dismantled and thro#n into the lar!e yello# ski" of history over the last A(-B( years. As e olo!ist Aldo Leo"old observed* S$ho but a fool #ould dis ard seemin!ly useless "arts8 To kee" every o! and #heel is the first "re aution of intelli!ent tinkerin!.T $e have ke"t very fe# of the "arts* and the idea that #e mi!ht need some of them a!ain is only 5ust startin! to emer!e.
4choes of a resilient past

T#o e%am"les from TotnesRs re ent "ast offer both #ider insi!hts into ho# our settlements fun tioned "rior to hea" oil* and some of the strate!ies and infrastru ture they may need to onsider beyond it. -n the middle of the to#n youRll find HeathRs 6ursery Car +ark. $hile to the modern eye it looks like any other ar "ark* #hat it re"la ed is e%traordinary. -t used to be a vibrant and "rodu tive urban market !arden* as #ere another t#o of the to#nRs ar "arks. This is not uniHue to TotnesK it is a "attern youRll find in any settlement. The or hards* the market !ardens* the o""i es* the nut trees and the fish nurseries #ere all !rubbed out and re"la ed by the relentless sur!e of urbanisation #hi h transformed our to#ns and ities. 6o# their le!a y an only be found in the street names* W,r hard /iseR* W6ursery LaneR* WSa#"it LaneR. As :ames Ho#ard =unstler is fond of tellin! us* "la es are often named after #hat #as destroyed to make s"a e for them. HeathRs 6ursery #as be!un by Geor!e Heath in >I'(* #hen he bou!ht land in the middle of the to#n to start a nursery. -n Totnes &useum is an invoi e from that year for the dismantlin!* movin! and re-ere tin! of a !lasshouse* the first to !o u" on the site. -n the >I@(s the business e%"anded* as HeathRs son* also alled Geor!e* ame into the business* and a sho" "remises on the Hi!h Street #as obtained. The market !arden #as in t#o "arts2 the first #as a lar!e o"en area #ith one heated !lasshouse #here seedlin!s #ere startedK the se ond* belo# it* had a series of !lasshouses #hi h #ere also heated. Geor!e Heath .the son0 also ke"t "i!s on the site from >IA( until the late >IB(s. +eo"le - have s"oken to #ho #ere at s hool then remember bein! !iven time off lass to #alk do#n to HeathRs #ith the "i! s#ill from the s hool kit hen* and s#ill #as also olle ted from other lo al s hools* sho"s and hos"itals. &u h of the fertility ame from the lo al ba on fa tory* either in the form of "i! manure or .ve!etarians mi!ht hoose to look a#ay at this "oint0 as on!ealed blood #hi h #as added to the #ater used in the !lasshouses as a nutritious "lant feed. The nursery "rodu ed tomatoes* beetroot* abba!e* lettu e* runner beans* broad beans and also a #ide ran!e of flo#ers* su h as hrysanthemums and dahlias* all of #hi h #ere sold throu!h the sho" on the Hi!h Street. They didnRt !ro# ro"s su h as "otatoes* as these ould be !ro#n far more om"etitively by lo al farmers* and in essen e* they took u" too mu h s"a e. HeathRs also sold seed "otatoes and a lar!e ran!e of "a keted seeds #hi h #ere #ell "atronised by lo al !ardeners. ,ther #ays in #hi h the nursery #as linked into the lo al e onomy in luded the use of #ood from the lo al sa#mill .W/eevesR0 to make their seed trays and the sellin! of "rodu e* su h as stra#berries* from other lo al !ro#ers. /unnin! a nursery like HeathRs #as hard #ork. This #as a seven-days-a-#eek business* but it "erformed an invaluable servi e to the to#n and "rovided a reasonable livin!. -n the early >I)(s #hen &r Heath retired* neither of his sons #anted to take on the business and it #as !radually #ound do#n. The !lasshouses #ere dismantled .around the same time as they #ere also bein! dismantled in the to#nRs other market !ardens0 and the land #as sold to the Coun il* #hi h turned it into a ar "ark. -ma!ine the #onderful soil that #as lost3 The site is marked as "rodu tive land ba k as far as re ords e%ist. -n >I)( Geor!e Heath #as seen as bein! behind the times* but he #as a tually about thirty
years ahead of the times. His model of a lo alised food system that #as "ostarbon and based on ;ero food miles .indeed* it allo#s us to oin the term Wfood feetR0 is one #e #ill have to redis over and "ut ba k in "la e over the ne%t fe# years. But often* o#in! to develo"ment* this o"tion is losed to us. Some of the site of HeathRs 6ursery is urrently bein! develo"ed* the "ossibility of its reinstatement !one for the foreseeable future. Goin! ba k further in lo al history* #e find another story #ith insi!hts into ho# so iety fun tioned before oil* as #ell as ho# it mi!ht re-or!anise itself beyond it. The Bli!ht family business #as horses* in "arti ular drau!ht-horses* #hi h "rovided mu h of the to#nRs horse"o#er .literally0 "rior to the arrival of the internal ombustion en!ine. -n the same #ay that a !lobalised* ener!y-intensive infrastru ture no# e%ists to kee" motorised trans"ort fun tionin!* before the >I@(s a lo alised* lo#-ener!y* diverse infrastru ture e%isted to su""ort the horse-"o#ered e onomy. ,ne ould find a bla ksmith #ithin at most a five-mile radius of any#here. Also there #ere saddlers* harness-makers* ostlers* #heel#ri!hts* !rooms* ferries* oa hmen and vets. The Bli!htsR business #as set u" by David Bli!ht* #ho started his business "rovidin! horse"o#er for the uttin! of the South Devon rail#ay line in the >)D(s. As #ell as that* he also "rovided horses for the tram#ay that then ran from Totnes station to the ?uays. $hen he died in >))I* his son /obert took over the business. At its "eak* the Bli!hts o#ned ei!ht horses* #hi h #ere ke"t stabled in the middle of the to#n in #hat #as* to all intents and "ur"oses* the ba k room of their house. At that time* most of the hotels in the to#n had their o#n stables in order to be able to "rovide horses for arria!es "assin! throu!h the to#n. The Bli!htsR haula!e business ran until >I@(* #hen the Totnes Fire Bri!ade* one of their main ustomers* u"!raded to a motorised fire en!ine. At this "oint /obert Bli!ht sold his interest to a lo al trans"ortation om"any and be ame a mana!er for them. $hat is interestin! to me about the Bli!hts* like Geor!e Heath* is the insi!ht they offer into the infrastru ture that #as ne essary before the internal ombustion en!ine. -f there #as a fire* the Fire Bri!ade needed somethin! to "ull their en!ines* and they needed it ur!ently. Brin!in! the horses in from the surroundin! fields #ould have been too time- onsumin!. 7ven thou!h the horses #ere basi ally stabled in the Bli!htsR house* they #ere a key "art of the to#n bein! able to fun tion. $ith the arrival of the ar and the tra tor* the infrastru ture that su""orted horses ontra ted ra"idly. - asked a lo al farmer* #ho !re# u" farmin! in the >I@(s #ith horses about four miles from Totnes* #hether he mourned the "assin! of #orkin! horses. He re"lied2 S-t de"ended very mu h on the individual. -f e onomi s #ere your ob5e tive* then the han!e a#ay from horses brou!ht !reat "leasure. -f you #ere artisti and "oeti * it #as a shame. - started retirin! my horses in >I@A #hen the first tra tor arrived* and - 5ust sto""ed re"la in! them as they died out. The horsemen 5ust be ame tra tor drivers.T $e an see the resilient rural e onomy* #ithin #hi h both of these e%am"les sat* as bein! like a #eb of strin!s that onne ted all the various elements of the ommunity to!ether* similar to the W$eb of LifeR e%er ise .see "a!e C(0. This #eb of onne tions #as* #hile om"le% and resilient* very fra!ile. -n effe t* the A!e of Chea" ,il took a "air of s issors to this #eb* re"la in! these fun tions #ith more ener!y-de"endent versions. -t is easy to understand #hy
this ha""ened and #hy "eo"le embra ed it. &ost of us #ould have done the same* had #e lived in that time. -t saved time* #as less hard #ork* offered ne# o""ortunities* develo"ment* and #as seen as "rovidin! a better life for the ne%t !eneration. 6o one ould have foreseen the im"li ations fifty years do#n the line. -t is easy to for!et the ir umstan es that led to many han!es that #e no# take for !ranted. The move a#ay from oal* for e%am"le* #as driven as mu h as anythin! by the fa t that on a bad day* ity d#ellers ouldnRt see more than a fe# feet in front of them* and thousands died every year from the effe ts of smoke inhalation. Ho#ever* no# it is be omin! lear that the hea" oil reHuired to sustain our oil-de"endent lifestyles is not !oin! to be #ith us indefinitely* #e find ourselves lookin! around at the severed strands of #eb and startin! to #onder #hi h strands mi!ht re onne t to #hi h others. The Transition a""roa h is one of re-#eavin! this #eb* and remakin! the onne tions #hi h #ill be needed by a resilient "ost-oil e onomy. 7very ne# harmonious relationshi" #e for!e is a ste" ba k to sanity.
Can we learn anything useful from 8ritain7s last 9wartime mobilisation71

Can any lessons be learned from BritainRs most re ent national W+o#erdo#nR* $orld $ar --8 $hile there are learly many differen es #ith the kind of "roa tive ener!y-des ent "lannin! this book advo ates* there are also relevant similarities. $e are learly a very different so iety no#* #ith different skills* e%"e tations and values* and the nature of the hallen!e fa in! us is very differentK yet even so* a look ba k to that time an be instru tive. As Andre# Simms of the 6e# 7 onomi s Foundation observes* S/e ent history demonstrates that #hole e onomies an be re-!eared in short "eriods of time* #hi h is e%a tly the demand !lobal #armin! makes of us. . . . Could it be that the e%"erien e of so ial and military mobilisation in #artime mi!ht ans#er the bi!!est Huestion to do #ith !lobal #armin!2 are #e a"able of han!in! our lifestyles and e onomies enou!h and in time to sto" it8T There is mu h that an be learned from both the run-u" to the #ar and from the >I@I-AB "eriod itself. -n the li!ht of the need for broad en!a!ement a ross se tors in res"onse to a life-threatenin! situation* #e an learn some lessons about ho# Hui kly !overnments an res"ond .#hen they have to0 by lookin! at ho# the British Government "re"ared for the im"a ts #ar #ould have on food "rodu tion. -n A"ril >I@C* #ith #ar a!ainst Germany a "ossibility but by no means a ertainty* an A t of +arliament set u" t#o ommittees2 one #as ommissioned to desi!n and "re"are a s heme of food rationin!* and the other to "ro"ose the ommodities to be !iven "riority in a "ro!ramme of storin! food. This led to the reation of the Food .Defen e +lans0 De"artment in the Board of Trade* #hi h be ame the drivin! for e in "re"arin! the food se tor for #ar. 7ven so* Alan $ilt ar!ues* it #as not until >IA( that the !overnment "rodu ed a lon!-term "oli y. Committees #ere set u" in ADC distri ts nation#ide to o-ordinate the reorientation of a!ri ulture. As #ell as attem"tin! to in rease levels of stored food* in reasin! home food "rodu tion be ame a ma5or on ern. -n >I@C* t#o-thirds of BritainRs food #as im"orted and
mu h of the nationRs "rodu tive land #as under "asture. By >IAA the amount of land under ultivation had in reased from >'.I million a res in >I@I to >I.) million* food "rodu tion had risen I>O and in effe t Britain #as able to feed itself for a""ro%imately >C( days a year rather than the >'( days it had been in >I@I. Food im"orts to the E= halved bet#een >I@I and >IAA. Lo al authorities set u" horti ultural ommittees to advise "eo"le on !ro#in! food* om"lemented by a hu!e "ro!ramme of "romotin! the virtues of thrift and e onomy* as #ell as tea hin! "ra ti al skills. Some of the "osters "rodu ed at the time are !reat e%am"les of ho# to "romote onservation* fru!ality and food "rodu tion. -n >IA'* Bristol .for e%am"le0 had >B*((( allotments* and over half the nationRs manual #orkers had an allotment or !arden* "rodu in! around >(O of the nationRs food. +eo"le sometimes remark that durin! the #ar* allotments and ba k !ardens WonlyR "rodu ed >(O of the national diet* but the im"ortant "oint is that the >(O it "rodu ed #as the >(O that ke"t the nation healthy. $hile a!ri ulture !re# the arbohydrates and the fats* it #as the ba k !ardens that "rodu ed most of the fresh fruit and ve!etables. Food rationin! #as introdu ed on :anuary )th >IA(* and initially a""lied only to ba on* butter and su!ar* before bein! e%"anded to over most foods .a"art from fish and hi"s30 as #ell as fuel and lothin!. ,ne of the su esses of rationin! #as that it rebalan ed ineHualities in diet. $hile the #ealthy sa# their diet restrained* for the "oor* "arti ularly in industrial entres* diet im"roved si!nifi antly from the "re-#ar years. Total food onsum"tion fell >>O by >IAA* as did meat onsum"tion. -nfant mortality rates also fell* and ar!uably the E=Rs !eneral state of health #as never better* before or sin e. -n terms of ar use* "etrol rationin!* introdu ed in >I@I* #as restri ted to >*)(( miles "er year for non-essential users* then !radually redu ed until >IA' #hen individual allo ations #ere abolished. Bet#een >I@) and >IAA there #as a IBO dro" in the use of ars in the E=. &u h an be learned from the e%"erien e of $orld $ar -- re!ardin! ho# !overnments "re"are for su h a transition. The British Government #as able* bet#een >I@C #hen the Food .Defen e +lans0 De"artment #as set u" #ithin the Board of Trade and >I@I #hen the #ar be!an* to o-ordinate a res"onse #hi h #as able .5ust0 to su""ort the nation. The most im"ortant lesson from the #ar years* a ordin! to Andre# Simms* is that S#hen !overnments really #ant to* they an do almost anythin!* in ludin! !ood thin!s.T Clearly "eak oil and limate han!e have yet to en!ender in the "o"ulation or #ithin !overnment a sense of ur!en y any#here near that of a 6a;i invasion. Ho#ever* as the Hirs h /e"ort states* by the time a !overnment onsiders it "oliti ally e%"edient to take the s ale of a tion "rom"ted by "eak oil* it is too late. -n terms of the model in Fi!ure )* the res"onse durin! $orld $ar -- #as ar!uably losest to Heinber!Rs W+o#erdo#nR* althou!h the !overnmentRs em"hasis on lo al a tion and reskillin! "la es it further round to#ards his WBuildin! LifeboatsR. Alon!side the #ar effort* the buildin! of resilien e be ame a national "riority* and #as a tively en oura!ed and fa ilitated by national !overnment.
Chapter ": Why small is inevitable

3elocalisation
A !ro#in! number of #riters and thinkers no# ar!ue that the de line in availability of liHuid fuels and their risin! "ri e #ill inevitably lead to the lo al s ene and s ale be omin! more im"ortant. As David Flemin! #rites* JLo alisation stands* at best* at the limits of "ra ti al "ossibility* but it has the de isive ar!ument in its favour that there #ill be no alternative.J A re ent re"ort e%"lorin! the "otential relo alisation of the Bay Area in California* ES defines relo alisation thus2 'The process by which a region, county, city or even neighbourhood frees itself from an overdependence on the global economy and invests its own resources to produce a significant portion of the goods, services, food and energy it consumes from its local endowment of financial, natural and human capital$' - #ould ar!ue that #e need to be buildin! the a"ability to "rodu e lo ally those thin!s that #e need and an "rodu e lo ally. -t is* of ourse* easy to atta k this idea by "ointin! out that some thin!s* su h as om"uters and fryin!-"ans* an1t be made at a lo al level. Ho#ever* there are a lot of thin!s #e ould "rodu e lo ally2 a #ide ran!e of seasonal fruit and ve!etables* fresh fish* timber* mushrooms* dyes* art of all kinds* entertainment* many medi ines* furniture* erami s* insulation materials* soa"* bread* !lass* dairy "rodu ts* #ool and leather "rodu ts* "a"er* buildin! materials* "erfumes and fresh flo#ers - to name but a fe#. $e aren1t lookin! to reate a 1nothin! in* nothin! out1 e onomy* but rather to lose e onomi loo"s #here "ossible and to "rodu e lo ally #hat #e an. This raises enormous Huestions as to #hat a more lo alised manufa turin! se tor #ould look like* and the "ra ti alities and e onomi s of rebuildin! a ;ero- arbon .or ideally arbonne!ative0 lo alised manufa turin! se tor - a se tor that has been* over the "ast t#o de ades* lar!ely dismantled and outsour ed to China. Althou!h China has be ome a vora ious onsumer of oil* oal* !as and most other ra# materials* more than half of the ener!y and ra# materials it takes in are used to make "rodu ts for e%"ort. $hen onsiderin! the redu tion of the E=1s arbon emissions* it is #orth rememberin! that at the moment #e don1t fa tor in #hat they #ould look like if #e started makin! thin!s a!ain* as #e shall doubtless have to. The rethinkin! of industry on this s ale and the "ra ti alities thereof are beyond the s o"e of this book2 - am not !oin! to des ribe ho# it should ha""en* but rather to say that it #ill inevitably need to ha""en. -n our urrent so iety* almost everythin! is #orkin! a!ainst the kind of lo al resilien e-buildin! dis ussed in Cha"ter @. $e had a very lear e%am"le of this in Totnes #hen #e asked the /e!ional Develo"ment A!en y if they #ould fund our Lo al Food Dire tory2 #e #ere told that they ouldn1t* be ause under the rules of the $orld Trade ,r!anisation they are unable to fund anythin! that "romotes the idea that lo al "rodu e is in any #ay su"erior to internationally sour ed "rodu e.
The move a#ay from the lo al in the develo"ed #orld #as only "artly by "o"ular hoi e2 some very "o#erful intentions made it ha""en* and are still ram"antly at #ork here and else#here. This is es"e ially the ase today in develo"in! ountries su h as -ndia* #here "eo"le are bein! driven off the land and rural e onomies are systemati ally undermined. Eltimately* as availability of fossil fuels be!ins to ontra t so #ill our ability to move !oods around* and inevitably* #e #ill need to start buildin! the infrastru ture for lo al "rovision. -t is not somethin! #e have a hoi e over - it is an emer!in! realityK a 1#hen1* not an 1if1. There #ill al#ays be trade bet#een nations* but #e #ill in reasin!ly move to#ards a situation #here more of our ore needs are lo ally sour ed rather than im"orted* and the distan es from #hi h #e im"ort !oods #ill ontra t. There is a far stron!er ase for im"ortin! om"uters and ele troni s than a""les and hi ken. $ater and food are the most sensible "la es to be!in rebuildin! ommunity resilien e* but buildin! materials* fabri s* timber* ener!y and urren ies follo# soon after. The ar!ument for de entralised livin! an be tra ed ba k throu!h the ommunities movements of the >IC(s and D(s all the #ay to 7bene;er Ho#ard and $illiam &orris in <i torian times. +eo"le su h as Helena 6orber!-Hod!e* +aul 7kins and =irk"atri k Sale have more re ently been ar!uin! that the most sustainable s ale of livin! is the lo al s ale* and that the key to a sustainable future is the devolution of "o#er ba k to ommunities. -t has been a lon!-runnin! debate* althou!h* #ithout e%ternal ir umstan es .in "arti ular "eak oil and limate han!e0 omin! to bear on the matter* it is likely that the lo al9!lobal debate #ould end u" as 5ust that - a debate - as the for es behind !lobalisation are mu h more "o#erful than the for es for lo alisation. ,thers* su h as environmental a tivist and #riter Geor!e &onbiot* have ar!ued a!ainst the "rin i"le of blanket lo alisation* ar!uin! that it is in no one1s interest. The #orld is not eHually endo#ed #ith minerals and other ra# materials* so it makes sense for ea h "la e to be able to s"e ialise. 6ot every lo ale an manufa ture sau e"ans* for e%am"le. &onbiot has ar!ued that the "rin i"le of om"lete lo alisation is J oer ive* destru tive and un5ustJ* and that Jthe money the "oor #orld needs has to ome from some#here* and if our movement re5e ts trade as the ans#er* it is surely duty-bound to find another.J The "oint is that #e are not talkin! about om"lete lo alisation* but rather about the buildin! of resilien e in both #orlds* 6orth and South - t#o "ro esses runnin! in "arallel and in a mutually su""ortive #ay. For <andana Shiva* the stren!thenin! of lo al e onomies in the develo"in! #orld an only ha""en if a!ri ulture relo alises in the $est too. They are mutually intert#ined. As she told the '((D Soil Asso iation onferen e2 'The future of the world in farming is to produce more food in diversity, locally$ %nd that can(t be done without substituting fossil fuels for renewable energy, including human energy$ Then for the first time in the last )** years since colonialism split us into the "orth and #outh, the colonised and the coloniser, we actually have the opportunity to be one family practising a one+planet agriculture$' As <andana Shiva also "oints out* sustainable indi!enous e onomies do not airfrei!ht their "rodu e. By the time an area is doin! that* the indi!enous farmers are usually lon! !one* leared off the land for intensive e%"ort-driven a!ri ulture. That1s not to say that #e should all lose off from ea h other* rather that #e should find more eHuitable and useful #ays of
relatin! to re"la e the uneHual e% han!es of 1stuff1* #hi h "er"etuate rather than su"ersede the le!a y of olonialism. For years "eo"le have ar!ued over the e onomi advanta!es and disadvanta!es of lo alisation. +eak oil "uts an end to that debate. As David =orten "uts it in his re ent book The Great Turnin!2 'People will say that (,orten wants to change everything($ They miss the point$ Everything is going to change$ The -uestion is whether we let the changes play out in increasingly destructive ways or embrace the deepening crisis as our time of opportunity$ $ $ $ .t is the greatest creative challenge the species has ever faced$' $hen "eak oil is dro""ed into the mi%* lo alisation is no lon!er a hoi e - it is the inevitable dire tion in #hi h #e are movin!* one #e an do nothin! about* other than to de ide #hether #e #ant to embra e its "ossibilities or lin! to #hat #e "er eive that #e are about to lose. The ,il A!e an be seen as a '((-year "eriod #hi h enabled us to move a#ay from a "rimarily lo al fo us and then to move ba k to it a!ain. The "rin i"al reason for this is trans"ortation. +eak oil is "rimarily a "roblem of liHuid fuels* and liHuid fuels are rarely used in the E= no# to !enerate "o#er. Coal tends to be used to !enerate ele tri ity* !as for "o#er and also for domesti heatin!* but the liHuid "etroleum "rodu ts are key to trans"ortation. -n '((A* DAO of "etroleum "rodu ts #ere used for trans"ortation* and fi!ures for the follo#in! year sho# that nearly all .I).)O0 of ener!y onsumed by the trans"ort se tor #as "etroleum. Some of this onsum"tion is essential* su h as emer!en y servi es* "ubli trans"ort and a!ri ulture* but mu h of it has been ne essitated by #ork o"tions* settlement desi!ns* the systemati underminin! of lo al e onomies over the "ast B( years* and our dee"ly in!rained ultural "er e"tion that #e have the ri!ht to !o #here #e #ant* #hen #e #ant* and ho# #e #ant. As you an see in the Huotation in the sidebar o""osite* the availability of hea" liHuid fuels has also allo#ed us to desi!n a food su""ly system in #hi h hu!e amounts of ener!y are used movin! food and other !oods around 5ust for the sake of it. As Herman Daly "uts it2 J7% han!in! re i"es #ould surely be more effi ient.J $ritin! in the 6e# 4ork Times* Fareed Xakariah re ently #rote2 J4ou annot s#it h off those for es Lof e onomi !lobalisationM e% e"t at !reat ost to our o#n e onomi #ell-bein!. ,ver the last entury* those ountries that tried to "reserve their systems* 5obs* ulture or traditions by kee"in! the rest of the #orld out sta!nated. Those that o"ened themselves u" to the #orld "ros"ered.J $hile there is mu h about this statement that is ontentious* its "rin i"al #eakness is its relian e on hea" liHuid fuels. 6othin! an kee" the @( million ars and 5ust over ' million lorries on the E=1s roads indefinitely* and by e%tension* the more than C(( million ars in the #ider #orld. 6othin!. Com"lete relian e on road trans"ort and entralised distribution are e onomi !lobalisation1s A hilles1 heel. <arious 1alternative1 fuels are "ro"osed* !enerally by those for #hom the 1viable miti!ation o"tion1 of systemati ally #eanin! ourselves off "rivate trans"ort and entralised distribution does not enter the frameK but as #e shall see* they fall short #hen e%amined riti ally. The t#o most #idely touted e%am"les of alternatives to liHuid fuels are2 iodiesel -nitially* this sounds like a !reat idea. 4ou !ro# ro"s* you "ress the oil from them* you run
ars on it. -n theory it is arbon neutral* and reates ne# livelihoods for farmers. The reality is some#hat different. To start #ith* there sim"ly is not the land available to do it. To "o#er the urrent national fleet #ould need almost 'C million he tares of arable land. The "roblem is that the E= only has less than si%. The ethi al issue that arises early in any e%amination of biofuels is the onfli t bet#een the use of land for food or for fuel ro"s. -n the starkest terms* the Huestion is #hether #e eat or #hether #e drive. $ith )(( million "eo"le malnourished in the #orld* this is a vital Huestion. The #orst e%am"le of this is orn bio-ethanol in the ES* the in reasin! demand for #hi h has driven the "ri e of orn u" so far that there have been riots in &e%i o* #ith "eo"le unable to afford orn for tortillas. The land used to !ro# biofuels also redu es the amount of land available for !ro#in! !rains for human and .far less effi iently0 animal feed. Biodiesel isn1t as bad as orn bio-ethanol* but almost. -n any sane so iety* food !ro#in! should take "re eden e over liHuid fuels for ars every time. As David Strahan* author of The Last ,il Sho k* su in tly "uts it* J7ven if #e devoted all our ro"land to biofuel "rodu tion #e #ould only "rodu e a Huarter of our urrent fuel onsum"tion. $e ould all starve to death in a traffi 5am.J The last study that #as done on #hether the E= ould feed itself from its land mass #as in >IDB. -t found that it #as theoreti ally "ossible* but only if the diet ontained a lot less meat* #as similar to that of $orld $ar --* and if a lot of land not urrently used #ere brou!ht into "rodu tion. The study on luded2 J$ith "ro"er "lannin!* a little self sa rifi e by the more arnivorous* and a 5oint effort by all se tions of the ommunity* #e an build a better-fed and more beautiful Britain in the future.J 6o mention of s"are land for biofuels there. Advo ates of biodiesel ome at this the #ron! #ay round. $e need to "rioritise* and #e need a /oyal Commission on Food Se urity .as "ro"osed by &7+ Caroline Lu as0 to set out those "riorities. Food first* then medi inal "lants and materials* then fabri ro"s* then buildin! materials* and do#n near the bottom .5ust sli!htly above buildin! su"er asinos0 biofuels* if and it1s a bi! if - there is any land left. /ydrogen Hydro!en is the s ien e fi tion fantasy of ener!y systems. -t "romises a lot2 it is bold* shiny* someho# rather intre"id and of !reat a""eal to boys of a ertain a!e #ho like !ad!ets and toys. But like mu h s ien e fi tion it is a fantasy* destined to look faintly ridi ulous to future !enerations2 an illusion devoid of substan e. Start lookin! losely* and its failin!s sta k u" rather Hui kly. -ts #eakness is that it is not an ener!y sour e* but an ener!y arrier. -n order to obtain "ure hydro!en* #e need to run ele tri ity throu!h #ater. Hydro!en is not somethin! one finds lyin! around in "ools 5ust belo# the 7arth1s surfa e from #hi h it an be onveniently harvested and "oured into our fuel tanks. The "roblem arises in ho# #e !enerate that ele tri ity. David Strahan has estimated that 5ust runnin! the E=1s ars on hydro!en #ould ne essitate JCD Si;e#ell B nu lear "o#er stations* a solar array overin! every in h of 6orfolk and Derbyshire ombined* or a #ind farm bi!!er than the entire south#est re!ion of 7n!landJ - none of #hi h is desirable nor feasible* and any rene#able ener!y thus !enerated #ould be more #isely used in the residential se tor. -n oral histories - have done lo ally around Totnes* one of the re urrin! themes is ho# durin!
$orld $ar --* #hen "etrol rationin! ame in* "eo"le be ame far more reliant on those around them2 the farmers* the rafts"eo"le* the ne%t-door nei!hbours. As the "ri e of liHuid fuels be!ins to rise here* - believe that #e #ill see the fo us returnin! on e more to the lo al. As the for es that have undermined and rava!ed lo al e onomies be!in to #ane* #e #ill see a resur!en e of the human-s ale* of the a""ro"riately s aled. That1s not to say that some im"ortin! and e%"ortin! #on1t ha""enK it al#ays has and it al#ays #ill. This is a !ood time to be investin! in ommer ial-s ale #ind-"o#ered sailin! shi"s .indeed* some "eo"le have be!un to do so0. As the "ri e of ener!y rises* it #ill be interestin! to see #hat first be omes viable to "rodu e lo ally a!ain. The solutions that emer!e #ill de"end on our olle tive efforts* and on other lo al ir umstan es su h as the availability of arable land and other resour es. -t is lear that throu!hout history it made more sense to "rodu e #hat #as "ossible lo ally* and to im"ort lu%ury !oods and the fe# thin!s #e #ere unable to "rodu e ourselves. -ndeed* to do other#ise #as utterly im"ra ti al and finan ially out of the rea h of most "eo"le. The key issue here* on e a!ain* is resilien e. $ith that resilien e in "la e* if om"uters and "lasti toilet brushes sto" omin! in* #e1ll still have suffi ient food* shelter* fuel* basi !oods and medi ines to !et by. Conditions #ould not be ideal from our urrent "ers"e tive* but neither #ould they be atastro"hi . As in most to#ns and villa!es "rior to >)B(* im"orts #ould "lease and distin!uish their o#ners* and "rovide "rodu ts and materials #e are unable to "rodu e here* but #ithout #hi h #e #ould mana!e* #ithout the risk of destitution and starvation. To re a"* !iven that our urrent !lobalised9 entralised su""ly systems are entirely de"endent on hea" liHuid fossil fuels* and the uninterru"ted su""ly of those fuels and their ontinuin! hea"ness are in reasin!ly in doubt* #e need to fo us on the reation of lo al "rodu tion systems. Enfortunately they have been systemati ally and relentlessly vilified and undermined over the last si%ty years. As :ames Ho#ard =unstler has #ritten* the future #ill be Jin reasin!ly and intensely lo al and smaller in s aleJ. Ho#ever* - do not #ish to be seen as idealisin! lo al ommunities2 - have lived in dee"ly insular rural ommunities* and am familiar #ith their not-so-!ood as #ell as their !ood Hualities. The #hole "erson "aradi!m* if it takes root* mi!ht han!e all that. -n the same #ay that the "rivations of $orld $ar -- led to a renaissan e of the fortunes of British farmin! .still talked of as a 1Golden A!e10* "eak oil and !as ould lead to a renaissan e of a!ri ulture and of lo al lo#-im"a t manufa turin! in the E=. $e annot !o ba k* nor #ould #e #ant to. $e need not all re-learn &orris dan in!* de"rive #omen of the vote* or reembra e feudalism. $e an ada"t our ulture to a more lo al onte%t #ith reativity* and the results #ill be beyond our urrent ima!inin!s. $hat is inevitable* thou!h* is the return of the lo al and the small-s ale* and the turnin! a#ay from the !lobalised. This #ill not be an isolationist "ro ess of turnin! our ba ks on the !lobal ommunity. /ather it #ill be one of ommunities and nations meetin! ea h other not from a "la e of mutual de"enden y* but of in reased resilien e.
The dangers of clinging to the illusion of large-scale

&ovin! to#ards the kind of lo#-ener!y* more lo alised future outlined in this book is not* of
ourse* the only o"tion on the table. -ndeed it is* at "resent* a table !roanin! under the #ei!ht of various im"ra ti al and "otentially ni!htmarish solutions. -t is #orth "ausin! here to onsider the "o#erful trends and for es at #ork takin! us in an alto!ether different dire tion. There are t#o Transitions at #ork in the #orld2 that #hi h is the sub5e t of this book* and another far lar!er* more "o#erful and better resour ed one* #hi h is ra"idly dismantlin! #hat resilien e remains* under the !uise of e onomi !lobalisation and !ro#th. Althou!h the #orld1s future su""lies of hea" oil and !as are be!innin! to look very vulnerable* there is "robably enou!h oal to make the term 1end of the fossil fuel era1 some#hat redundant. There is !reat debate over the oft- ited 1fa t1 that the #orld still has many hundreds of years of oal left. &any nations that "reviously de lared hu!e reserves of oal are no# do#nsi;in! their reserves hu!ely. Ho#ever* the likelihood is that there is still enou!h to irreversibly dama!e the limate and* via the "ro ess of onvertin! oal to liHuids* to kee" the develo"ed nations #hi h an afford it motorin! for some time yet. -ndeed* the eviden e that the E= Government has de ided that a !ood "art of the E=1s future ener!y se urity lies in a revival of the oal industry a""ears to be mountin!. As :eremy Le!!ett "uts it* de idin! to use the #orld1s remainin! oal reserves is to take u" the hallen!e of tryin! to "rove the #orld1s limate s ientists #ron!. -t is not a ontest #e have mu h han e of #innin!. -f everythin! is left to a market unrestrained by strin!ent international limate han!e le!islation* su""lies of liHuid fuels #ill be e%tra ted from #herever they an be sHuee;ed in a futile effort to meet demand Ya la Hirs h. $e are already seein! learan e of rainforest and other e osystems in South Asia to "lant "alm trees for biodiesel* to be e%"orted to the $est as a 1!reen1 fuel. $e are seein! a ra"idly a eleratin! installation of oal-to-liHuids te hnolo!y .makin! "etrol from oal0 around the #orld. $e are seein! the !a" o"enin! u" in the E=1s !as su""lies bein! filled by an in reased onsum"tion of oal. -n the #inter of '((B-C* #hen the E= fa ed a substantial !as shorta!e* it only !ot throu!h the #inter by burnin! >)O more oal than it #ould other#ise have done. $e an see the !ro#in! demand for liHuid fuels in China leadin! to their makin! oil a ess deals #ith !overnments and re!imes that our forei!n "oli y #ouldn1t allo# us to. =ee"in! our "etrol tanks full is a dirty business. -f #e are unable or refuse to a kno#led!e the onstraints that "eak oil is im"osin! on us* #e #ill des"erately attem"t to kee" the e onomi !ro#th sho# on the road for as lon! as "ossible. $e #ill see* indeed #e are already seein!* biofuels "rodu tion on a sta!!erin! s ale* reHuirin! lar!e biodiesel refineries. $e #ill also see* in "arallel* rates of malnutrition and starvation rise shar"ly as more and more land is taken out of food "rodu tion. $e are seein! a vi ious e%am"le of this no# in &e%i o. The Cantarell oil field* res"onsible for C(O of &e%i an oil "rodu tion* has be!un the "lun!e into terminal de line. The revenue for A(O of &e%i o1s "ubli fundin! omes from the sale of that oil to the Enited States. Cantarell1s de"letion rates are sta!!erin!. -t fell around C(O from its "eak bet#een '((C and '((D* and is estimated to fall DBO by the end of '((). At the same time* the ES uses '(O of its orn harvest to make orn ethanol in an attem"t to boost ener!y se urity. As its oil im"orts from &e%i o ontinue to fall* the "ressure #ill be for the ES to "rodu e more ethanol to fill the emer!in! !a"* leadin! to fallin! and in reasin!ly e%"ensive orn im"orts for &e%i o. +erha"s arbon a"ture and stora!e .CCS0* #hi h* in theory* a"tures the C,' from oal burnin! and stores it under the sea* #ill #ork* and oal #ill be our saviour. Ho#ever* CCS is
still at the e%"erimental sta!e* and even if it does #ork* there are doubts around it bein! rolled out in time* about there bein! enou!h oal to make it #orth#hile* and about its ost. ,ur failure to adeHuately address the issue of limate han!e #ill have had lear onseHuen es* #ith si!nifi ant han!es to the E= oastline and in reasin! e%treme #eather e"isodes* and severe e olo!i al breakdo#n* mass mi!ration and e onomi disru"tion else#here. -n reased military s"endin! #ill be reHuired in order to sustain the d#indlin! su""lies of onventional oil and !as. Di k Cheney1s J#ar that #ill never end in our lifetimesJ #ill have ome to "ass. -t is a ni!htmare s enario* to be avoided at all osts. $here #e mi!ht be headin! in terms of lar!e-s ale a!ri ulture an be !lim"sed in an arti le in the Sunday Times by /i hard Girlin!. He ar!ues that the future of a!ri ulture* in the li!ht of "o"ulation !ro#th* !lobal #armin! and the ener!y !a" #ill ne essitate the end of farmin! as #e kno# it. $e an say !oodbye to o#s standin! in fields he#in! the ud. $e shall inhabit* he "redi ts* a Jdrive-thru* #i"e- lean* "rairie BritainJ. The ountryside #ill be filled #ith Jidenti al suburbs of identi al bri k-bo% housin!J* Jthe drone of traffi J* and Jvast fields of identi al ro"sJ. The "ressure to feed more "eo"le on less land #ill ne essitate "uttin! "rodu tivity above all other onsiderations. JThere are only t#o #ays to !et more food from the soil2 by breedin! heavier-yieldin! ro"s or by ultivatin! more land*J Girlin! ar!ues* althou!h* as #e shall see in +art T#o* there are more than 5ust the t#o #ays he identifies. He Huotes &ark Hill of Deloitte* #ho says2 JThe hallen!e to farmers is to double food "rodu tion in the ne%t A( years. Ho# an they do it8J Ho# indeed. Girlin! ar!ues that #e #ill* as in >I@I* need to "lou!h u" all the land #here it is feasible to do so* massively redu e the amount of livesto k* and embra e !eneti ro"s as the only #ay throu!h these onver!in! hallen!es. This is really a "oint at #hi h 7instein1s sayin! that J"roblems annot be solved by the same level of thinkin! that reated themJ be omes useful. Tryin! to ma" a!ri ulture1s 5ourney throu!h this transition #ill not be "ossible #ithout some fresh thinkin! and an a""roa h #hi h a tually involves askin! the ri!ht Huestions. 4es* of ourse more land #ill need to be "ut into "rodu tion. The ridi ulous on e"t of land bein! 1set-aside1* no# thankfully bein! "hased out* #as a stran!e side-effe t of a ountry #ith too mu h oil and su"ermarket shelves !roanin! #ith a da;;lin! array of hea" im"orted !oods to hoose from. /edu in! the amount of livesto k #ill also be inevitable* as lar!e-s ale meat "rodu tion is an absurd and unsustainable #aste of resour es. $hen thinkin! of #hat a "ost-"eak a!ri ulture #ill look like* it is im"ortant to Huestion #hether* as the ,n e-ler in The Lora% mi!ht have "ut it* Jbi!!erin! and bi!!erin!J #hat #e have done thus far is really the best idea. The bottom line is that Girlin!1s vision* ho#ever inevitable he mi!ht "aint it as bein!* offers no resilien e* "la es all our e!!s in one basket* leaves us at the mer y of international events and e onomi s* "er"etuates our olle tive de-skillin!* offers meanin!ful #ork to no one* maintains and "ossibly even in reases the oil de"enden y of a!ri ulture* destroys biodiversity* does nothin! to stren!then e onomies* fails to make us any healthier* and #ould be soul-destroyin!. 4es* there may be some trends to#ards lar!e-s ale a!ri ulture* but they are not* by any means* inevitable.
Top-down or bottom-up1
All of this reinfor es #hy it is so im"ortant that #e #eave "eak oil and limate han!e to!ether in our de ision makin!* and see them as bein! intrinsi ally linked. They are not se"arate issues* and as #e sa# in Fi!ure D* it is only by onsiderin! them to!ether that our solutions #ill have any ho"e of bein! effe tive. Transition -nitiatives #ill fun tion best in the onte%t of a ombination of to"-do#n and bottom-u" res"onses* none of #hi h an address the hallen!e in isolation. The reality is that many of these res"onses are on their #ay* and are movin! faster than #e #ould have thou!ht even a year a!o. Serious thou!ht a""ears to be bein! !iven at !overnmental level to the introdu tion of arbon rationin!. After all* as David Flemin! .the 1inventor1 of Tradable 7ner!y ?uotas0 observes* as oil and !as "rodu tion start to de"lete* their rationin! #ill be inevitable2 either an eHuitable rationin! system #ill be introdu ed* or ener!y #ill be rationed by "ri e* #hi h is so ially divisive. -t is not a Huestion of if* but #hen rationin! be!ins* and the sooner #e do it* the !entler it #ill be. There is in reasin! "ressure and international di"loma y around the need for stron! international a tion on limate han!e* #ay beyond the #oefully inadeHuate =yoto +roto ol. ,n an individual level* #e should offer our su""ort to any am"ai!ns that drive for#ard any of the above* and dire t our s"endin! "o#er #hen #e !o sho""in! to su""ort businesses #ith a !enuine ommitment to lo#er ener!y use and sustainable business "ra ti e* in "arti ular those #hose "ra ti es build lo al resilien e. Ho#ever* the im"ortant "oint is that #e don1t need to #ait for the above. -ndeed* su essful national and international res"onses are all more likely in an environment #here ommunity res"onses are abundant and vibrant. $e an1t #ait for !overnments to take the lead here. The E= Government1s "osition on "eak oil .i.e. om"lete denial0 is "roof of this. The De"artment of 7nvironment* Food and /ural Affairs .D7F/A0* "ut it su in tly in '((' #hen they #rote2 JSustainable develo"ment annot be im"osed from above. -t #ill not take root unless "eo"le a ross the ountry are a tively en!a!ed.J
Where does government fit in1

-t a""ears to me that there is a fra ture in "oliti s. The E= Government looks to the "ubli and sees them as disen!a!ed* a"atheti and uninterested in the demo rati "ro ess. The "ubli often sees "oliti ians as un arin! areerists #ho don1t have any interest in them or #hat is a tually ha""enin! in their ommunities* a"art from on e every four years #hen an ele tion omes round. Lo al "lannin! onsultation "ro esses !enerate a luke#arm res"onse at best. All this is ha""enin! at a time #hen* as #e have seen* #e need to be !eneratin! a res"onse on a "reviously unseen s ale2 mobilisin! individuals* ommunities* businesses* or!anisations and !overnment institutions to #ork as effe tively to!ether as "ossible in order to ma%imise the han es of a smooth transition. Governments !enerally don1t lead* they res"ond. They are rea tive* not "roa tive. -t is essential that #e remember that many of the de isions they #ill inevitably have to make as
"art of "re"arin! for +o#erdo#n are "er eived to be "retty mu h in on eivable from an ele toral "ers"e tive. Take arbon rationin!* for instan e2 fe# "eo"le #ould be brave enou!h at this sta!e to run for !overnment on a ti ket #hi h "romises "eo"le less every year - less ar use and less ener!y availability. Ho#ever* - see no reason #hy these ideas ould not be made attra tive to the ele torate by the ri!ht andidates. -f* throu!h the reation of an 7ner!y Des ent +lan #hi h has en!a!ed the ommunity and #hi h offers a "ositive vision of a lo#erener!y future* ommunities have set out #here they #ant to !o* then a very dynami interfa e is reated bet#een ommunities* lo al and national !overnment. Communities ould set the a!enda* sayin! to !overnment* JHere is our "lan2 it addresses all of the issues raised by the omin! hallen!es of limate han!e and ener!y se urity* and it also #ill revitalise our lo al e onomy and our a!ri ultural hinterland* but it #ill #ork far better if arbon rationin! is in "la e* and if the true osts of fossil fuels are refle ted in !oods and servi es.J The fear of han!e is removed for !overnment* and they be ome s#e"t alon! in a hu!e movement for han!e. +reviously non-vote-#innin! "oli ies be ome the norm. /e ently* or"orations have be!un sayin! to the British Government* J$e #ant you to start takin! stron! a tion on limate han!e* be ause #e need to be able to start "lannin! for this* and #e need to kno# the frame#ork #ithin #hi h #e are o"eratin!.J Communities should be doin! this too. $e have to remember that #e an do a hu!e amount #ithout !overnment* but #e an also do a !reat deal more #ith them.
#umming up Part 1: The oil age draws to a close

$e have seen in this first "art of the book that the onver!in! hallen!es of "eak oil and limate han!e mean that han!e - on an almost unima!inable s ale - is omin! #hether #e #ant it or not. There is no lon!er a osy 1if1 to #ra" around ourselves. $e annot adeHuately address the hallen!e of de- arbonisin! our so iety #ithout also addressin! the need to rebuild lo al resilien e* to reate lo al e onomies a"able of su""ortin! us in a "ost-"eak #orld. Cuttin! arbon emissions* althou!h dee"ly ur!ent* is not enou!h on its o#n. - have delivered this messa!e many times* in talks* ourses and blo! "osts* and have yet to en ounter anyone #ho thinks that stron!er lo al e onomies* in reased lo al demo ra y* stren!thened lo al food ulture and more lo al ener!y "rovision are a bad idea. &ost of us instin tively kno# that #e are livin! beyond our olle tive means* and have some sense of #hat #e need to do about the systems on #hi h #e rely. Fe#er have ideas about #hat #e need to do about ourselves* but some have develo"ed robust and attra tive ones #e should ado"t and "romote. The key messa!e here has been that the future #ith less oil ould be better than the "resent* but only if #e en!a!e suffi ient information* reativity and ima!ination in the desi!n of this transition. For that #e need to dra# to!ether a diversity of individuals and or!anisations that has seldom been* if ever* mana!ed in the "ast. Above all* #e need a vie# of human bein!s that enables us to value the voi e* or uniHue si!nifi an e* of ea h "erson to the e%tent of
humiliatin!* diminishin! and silen in! no one. ,nly then #e an em"loy ada"tability* reativity and in!enuity om"arable to #hat !ot us u" to the to" of the "eak in the first "la e to desi!n a #ay do#n the other side. The Huestion no# is ho# an #e over ome the obsta les to this Transition that #e en ounter* both #ithin ourselves and in the #ider #orld8 $hen you hear the #ords limate han!e and "eak oil* ho# do they affe t you8 $hat ur!es or instin ts do they "rovoke8 At a !uess* if you are like most of the "eo"le - have asked* they lead to feelin!s of disem"o#erment* sadness* #eariness* and of bein! onfronted by somethin! hu!e and s ary that you feel unable to influen e. This state of mind is not the "la e to start from* if #e #ant to a hieve somethin!* do somethin! or reate somethin!K it doesn1t tend to lead to dynami a""lied a tion. As #e learn and ado"t the #hole "erson "aradi!m* ho#ever* #e #ill in reasin!ly feel ins"ired and motivated. $hile #e stand on the ed!e of the most momentous task in history* thorou!hly ill-"re"ared* #e have un"re edented o""ortunities to "rodu e #ell-bein! for all.
The Heart - Why having a positive vision is crucial

'.t is best to thin0 of this as a revolution, not of guns, but of consciousness, which will be won by sei1ing the 0ey myths, archetypes, eschatologies and ecstasies so that life won(t seem worth living unless one is on the transforming energy(s side$' - Gary Snyder
'To save the planet, we do not need miraculous technical brea0throughs, or vast amounts of capital$ Essentially we need a radical change in our thin0ing and behaviour$' - Ted Trainer 'The uncertainty of our times is no reason to be certain about hopelessness$' - <andana Shiva +eak oil and limate han!e an be intense and distressin!* both in their im"li ations and in the effe t they #ill have on us. -n the same #ay that most "eo"le remember #here they #ere on Se"tember >>th '((>* or .for the older readers0 #hen =ennedy #as assassinated* most "eo"le #ho are a#are of "eak oil and limate han!e have their stories to tell about the moment #hen 1the "enny dro""ed1 - #hat - sometimes all their 1End of #uburbia moment1. think that alon!side an understandin! of the issues* it is im"ortant not to "retend that #e an kee" our a#areness of these issues on a "urely intelle tual 1head1 level* but that #e need to address the 1heart1 too* a kno#led!in! that this is disturbin! information* that it affe ts us* and that ho# it affe ts us in turn sha"es ho# #e res"ond - or don1t. Also im"ortant .and e%"lored in this se tion0 is the on e"t of visionin!* and the "o#er that a vision of the future an have. Too often environmentalists try to en!a!e "eo"le in a tion by
"aintin! a"o aly"ti visions of the future as a #ay of s arin! them into a tion. The Huestion this "art of the book asks is #hat #ould ha""en if #e ame at this the other #ay round* "aintin! a "i ture of the future so enti in! that "eo"le instin tively feel dra#n to#ards it. As my ontribution to#ards this* - #ill set out a vision for ho# the E= mi!ht be in '(@( if #e en!a!e reatively #ith this "ro ess of ada"tation to ener!y des ent* seein! our future in in reased resilien e* more lo alised e onomies and !reatly redu ed ener!y onsum"tion. -nherent #ithin the t#in hallen!es of "eak oil and limate han!e is an e%traordinary o""ortunity to reinvent* rethink and rebuild the #orld around us. Eltimately* at the heart of this se tion is the understandin! that the s ale of this transition reHuires "arti ular inner resour es* not 5ust an abstra t intelle tual understandin!. This is relatively ne# !round for the environmental movement* but it is ru ial to our su ess and to en!a!e enou!h "eo"le on the s ale reHuired.
Chapter $: How peak oil and climate change affect us - %Post-petroleum stress disorder%
Before #e !o any further* it is #orth "ausin! to refle t on ho# all of this thinkin! about "eak oil and the han!es ahead is affe tin! us. Havin! been around the sub5e t of "eak oil for a #hile* - have observed many "eo"le !o throu!h the "ro ess of be omin! a#are of "eak oil* havin! #hat - sometimes all their 17nd of Suburbia moment1* and have seen ho# that a#areness affe ts them. For some it is a traumati sho k* for others an affirmation of #hat they have al#ays sus"e ted. For many thou!h* it is not so lear- ut either #ay. - have noti ed* over the years* ertain sym"toms of #hat - have ome to all 1"ost-"etroleum stress disorder1. +erha"s you mi!ht re o!nise some of them2
Clammy palms or nausea and mild palpitations

Findin! out about somethin! #ith su h "rofound ramifi ations for the #ay #e live an be a "rofound sho k to the system. There are ertain #ays our bodies res"ond to this* and for many "eo"le the first manifestation of this disorder is "hysi al dis omfort.
* sense of bewilderment and unreality

&any s"iritual traditions s"eak of a 1dark ni!ht of the soul1* #hen the nature of the em"tiness of reality is revealed and #e are for ed to let !o of the understandin! to #hi h #e have be ome atta hed. +eak oil and limate han!e "ut a mirror u" to our lives and the so iety around us* enablin! us to see that #hat #e had seen as bein! "ermanent and real is in fa t a
fra!ile illusion* de"endent on lon! su""ly lines and an uninterru"ted flo# of hea" oil. $hen you see the illusory nature of the #orld around you* it an leave you feelin! be#ildered. - remember a s ien e fi tion film - sa# years a!o alled They Live* #hi h started #ith a man findin! a bo% of sun!lasses behind some dustbins. $hen he "ut a "air on* he ould see that many of the "eo"le around him #ere in fa t aliens #ho #ere in the "ro ess of takin! over the 7arth. $henever he looked at advertisin! billboards* #hat had read 1Drink F* it1ll make you ha""y1* no# read 1Consume and Die1 and so on. Enfortunately* the film then de!enerated into a relentless blastin! of aliens #ith !uns* but it #as a very "o#erful meta"hor for #hat an emer!in! a#areness of "eak oil does to our "er e"tion of the #orld.
*n irrational grasping at unfeasible solutions

JAha3J some "eo"le say* Jit1ll all be fine be ause #e1ll 5ust s#it h to hydro!en3J ,r nu lear "o#er* or free ener!y ma hines made usin! te hnolo!y re overed from EF,s. $e are even told that hundreds of earnest souls* beaverin! a#ay in their !ara!es* have reated devi es that an yield untold Huantities of free ener!y* in om"lete disre!ard of the la#s of thermodynami s* but that every time they are about to laun h them "ubli ly* they are bou!ht out by oil om"anies and the "lans are "ut in a dra#erK or that other* more sinister thin!s ha""en to them. 7ither that* one mi!ht say* or a tually they 5ust never invented them. ,r they didn1t #ork. Any#ay* for those sufferin! from this sym"tom* there is a onfident belief that there is a silver bullet out there that #ill enable business-as-usual to ontinue uninterru"ted* steadily !ro#in! our e onomies ad infinitum. As #e sa# in +art ,ne* the more one looks at it* there is no sin!le te hnolo!y that an enable us to ontinue as #e are. 6u lear* hydro!en* 1 lean1 oal and biofuels all have severe limitations. Fossil fuels have been a one-off ener!y bonan;a that nothin! else an re"la e .indeed* it has been ar!ued that #e are lose to 1+eak 7verythin!1* to use the name of /i hard Heinber!1s latest book0. That doesn1t "revent "eo"le !ras"in! at thin!s that sim"ly #on1t #ork. -t is #hat Heinber! alls 1$aitin! for the &a!i 7li%ir1. The reality is that all the te hnolo!ies and a""lian es that #e #ill need are already out there in the #orldK #e 5ust have to !et on #ith it* rather than fantasisin! about im"endin! #onder te hnolo!ies.
:ear
-n our #ork "romotin! res"onses to "eak oil and limate han!e* #e should not lose si!ht of the fa t that for many "eo"le this is a very fri!htenin! sub5e t. -ndeed* one ould ar!ue that if you don1t find it s ary* you haven1t really !ot it. For some* that fear an be "aralysin!* and for others it an tri!!er a shut-off me hanism. -t is im"ortant that #e don1t 5ust dum" "otentially s ary information on "eo"le* but rather #e need to allo# an e% han!e of information and room for "eo"le to di!est #hat they have been told.
;utbreaks of nihilism and<or survivalism

For some* "eak oil an affirm their lon!-held belief that "eo"le are inherently selfish any#ay and #hat is the "oint - #e1ve all had it. The survivalist res"onse differs in that rather than thinkin! it is not #orth doin! anythin!* it assumes that one should "rioritise self and loved ones above all else* that one should desi!n for one1s o#n survivalK that a 1head for the hills1 res"onse is a valid one. This res"onse is a "arti ularly 6orth Ameri an one* as - found out in res"onse to a "ie e - #rote alled 1$hy the survivalists have !ot it #ron!1. -t eli ited more omments than any other "revious "ie e on Transition ulture* offerin! a fas inatin! insi!ht into those for #hom individual survivalism is seen as a viable o"tion. Some ame via survivalist #ebsites #hi h featured su h !ems as J$hi h is better* a !un or a lub8 4ou an use a !un as a lub* but you an1t use a lub as a !un.J ,f ourse in the ES* headin! for the hills is more of an o"tion* in the E= #e sim"ly don1t have the s"a e* and de antin! en masse to Dartmoor or Sno#donia #ould be a fairly unre#ardin! "ro ess. The most usual manifestation of this sym"tom that one en ounters in the E= is J$ell* #e1ll be ,=* #e1ve !ot a little "la e in the +yrenees.J Eltimately* any res"onse that is suffi ient to the s ale of the hallen!e is about omin! home* about bein! a#are that #e are a "art of the net#orks around us* and that #e need to nurture and rebuild them* rather than ima!inin! that #e an survive inde"endently of them. -ndeed* #e ould see a belief that #e an e%ist and flourish inde"endently of the ommunities around us as bein! a dubious 1lu%ury1 of the A!e of Chea" ,il. $e #ill have to learn to meet and !reet ea h other on e a!ain* as #ell as learnin! ho# to o-o"erate and ommuni ate.
5enial
-n this time #hen limate han!e and "eak oil are so ra"idly enterin! the "ubli ons iousness* and the im"li ations of #hat they #ill mean are startin! to sink in* inevitably* for some "eo"le* denial omes to the fore. This an take many forms. -t ould be the man sat ne%t to on a bus #ho told me he had seen a T< "ro!ramme #here a s ientist had said the #orld #as* in fa t* #armin! from the inside out .30* or it ould be those #ho say that limate han!e is aused by suns"ots or by natural y les* des"ite the #ealth of eviden e to the ontrary. -t ould be those #ho say that limate han!e is a tually a ons"ira y ooked u" by the 6e# $orld ,rder in order to further urb our freedoms* or that "eak oil is a ons"ira y by the oil industry to allo# them to make more money. The internet is full of half-truths and Chinese #his"ers for those #ho #ish to onstru t su h denial me hanisms. ,ne of my favourite denial stories omes from my friend Graham Strouts* #ho tells of a onversation #ith a #oman #ith #hom he had been dis ussin! the im"a ts "eak oil #ill have on the food su""ly system. They dis ussed ho# oil-de"endent food is* and ho# vulnerable the system is. Then* to Graham1s ama;ement she said* J$ell it doesn1t #orry me - my husband didn1t eat for a year on e.J Didn1t eat for a year83 A""arently he had done some kind of meditation "ra ti e and she #as onvin ed he hadn1t eaten for a year. ,f ourse the assertion that it is a fairly #ell established s ientifi fa t that if you take the food a#ay from a
"o"ulation* they tend to start keelin! over after a fe# #eeks didn1t do too mu h to han!e her "osition. There is no #ay of om"letely avoidin! denial* as none of us is beyond it. -t "o"s u" in all kinds of une%"e ted !uises* and it is a natural rea tionK #e an1t !o around thinkin! about limate han!e* "eak oil and the end of e onomi !lobalisation ALL the time after all3 -t be omes a "roblem #hen it loses us to the realities of the issue* and inhibits our ability to res"ond. Denial is a natural res"onse* but #e need to remain vi!ilant to it.
4/uberant optimism
At the end of the first "ubli s reenin! of The 7nd of Suburbia that - or!anised in -reland* a man in the audien e said2 J$e1ve 5ust been told the ,il A!e is omin! to a lose* to #hi h say* 1brin! it on31.J $hile - an a""re iate the sentiment he e%"ressed* it is not Huite so strai!htfor#ard. As the Hirs h /e"ort identifies* to make the transition a#ay from the oilbased e onomy #ill reHuire at least ten years* "referably t#enty* and a failure to adeHuately "re"are #ould be disastrous. /es"ondin! to "eak oil #ith e%uberant o"timism needs to be balan ed #ith an a""re iation of the massive hallen!e it "resents.
The %0 always told you so% syndrome

- must onfess that - see this one in myself. Havin! been involved in "erma ulture and natural buildin! for many years* - naturally see "eak oil as the o""ortunity to roll out "erma ulture and stra#9 lay houses #ith hem" "lasters on a "reviously unima!ined s ale. For those interested in or!ani s* "eak oil is seen as the o""ortunity to really ste" u" or!ani s on a far bi!!er s ale. The home-s hoolers* the off-the-!ridders* the market !ardeners and the home om"osters may #ell all have their J- told you soJ moments. This* for me* is entirely laudable* and a natural rea tion for those #ho have for years been "romotin! various as"e ts of the "ostarbon so iety years ahead of time. Ho#ever* there are other "eo"le out there #ho are #aitin! to use "eak oil for their 1- Al#ays Told 4ou So1 moments from not su h beni!n motivations. The British 6ational +arty have taken to the issue of "eak oil #ith !reat !usto* "o""in! u" at "eak oil !atherin!s and de larin! that #ithin the "eak oil hallen!e are the seeds to their as endan y. Histori ally* fas ists have al#ays "reyed on times of e onomi olla"se and hardshi"* and this one is no different. ,ne needs to take any laims of J- told you soJ .in ludin! mine0 #ith a Huestionin! mind and !reat dis ernment. -t is lear* for e%am"le* that for the makers of the lassi "eak oil film The 7nd of Suburbia* #ho #ere no fans of suburbia to start #ith* "eak oil "rovided a !reat o""ortunity to dan e u"on its !rave. The tem"tation to say J- told you soJ an also mean that #e ne!le t to really analyse the stren!ths and #eaknesses of our "ro"osed solutions in the onte%t of diminishin! net ener!y. $e need to really think throu!h the im"li ations - in a lo#-ener!y onte%t - of our "ro"osals* and not remain too atta hed to our lon!- herished beliefs and ideas. $e may find instead that by lettin! !o of them #e a tually ome u" #ith somethin! better and more
a""ro"riate to a ulture in transition.
Chapter &: 'nderstanding the Psychology of Change

7nablin! han!e has al#ays been the Holy Grail of environmentalists* but it has lar!ely remained frustratin!ly elusive. Althou!h there have been su esses* overall the environmental movement has failed to en!a!e "eo"le on a lar!e s ale in the "ro ess of han!e* ertainly not on the s ale of the #artime mobilisation no# ne essitated by "eak oil and limate han!e. -t ould be ar!ued that one of the reasons for this is that #e have never really understood han!e* ho# it ha""ens and #hat it entails. There are other dis i"lines that have a mu h better understandin! of han!e* ho# it #orks and ho# to brin! it about. ,ne of these is the field of addi tion. A year a!o - ame a ross a book #hi h transformed my thinkin! on this. -ndeed* if it had had a different over* and had been alled somethin! like +eak ,il and Chan!e for Communities* #ould have thou!ht it a #ork of !enius. -t #as Addi tion and Chan!e by Carlo DiClemente. DiClemente develo"ed #hat he alls the 1Transtheoreti al Chan!e &odel1 .TT&0* #hi h sets out to e%"lain ho# han!e ha""ens. He states that the "ro ess by #hi h an individual !ets into and out of addi tion is the same as any "ro ess of han!e. The TT& emer!es from a synthesis of various "revious a""roa hes* as #ell as from lon!itudinal studies into ho# "eo"le han!e. /ather than han!e bein! 5ust a "ro ess of de idin! to han!e and then han!in!* DiClemente ar!ues that the "ro ess is more subtle and so"histi ated than that. found his insi!hts enormously illuminatin!* and around the same time - met Dr Chris :ohnstone* an addi tions s"e ialist #ho has done a lot of #ork #ith the Sta!es of Chan!e and a""lyin! them to so ial and environmental han!e #ork. Chris is author of Find your +o#er* and also edits The Great Turnin! Times* as #ell as runnin! #orksho"s on 1The $ork That /e onne ts1 around the E=. - find his take on han!e very ins"irin! and insi!htful* and the Transition a""roa h is* in many #ays* informed by some of these insi!hts. /ather than tryin! to e%"lain this to you myself* #hen - have no ba k!round in "sy holo!y or addi tions* - have dele!ated this to Chris* and #hat follo#s is a dialo!ue #e had e%"lorin! these issues.
*n interview with 5r Chris =ohnstone

What are the #tages of Change> and where did they come from1
The Sta!es of Chan!e model #as develo"ed by "sy holo!ists Carlo DiClemente and :ames +ros haska in the early >I)(s. They #anted to ma" out a frame#ork for understandin!
han!e that ould a""ly to many different ty"es of behaviour and that ould also be used by "eo"le from varyin! theoreti al ba k!rounds. For this reason it be ame kno#n as the 1transtheoreti al a""roa h1. At the ore of this model is a sim"le* and even obvious* idea2 han!e doesn1t ha""en all at on e. /ather it o urs in in rements or sta!es. 4ou an a""ly this to "retty mu h any ty"e of han!e. For e%am"le* if you1re movin! home* the a tual movin! is referred to as the A tion Sta!e. But before you move* there1s some "lannin! that1s needed - that1s the +re"aration Sta!e. And before you "lan* you make a de ision that omes after a "eriod of thinkin! about it - that1s the Contem"lation Sta!e. There #as also a time* further ba k* before you even started thinkin! about movin! - that1s the +re- ontem"lation Sta!e. There are t#o other im"ortant sta!es too* but -1ll ome on to these later. This model has been enthusiasti ally embra ed by the addi tions treatment field be ause it "rovides a useful ma" of #here "eo"le an be in their 5ourney of han!e. Some lients are in the a tion sta!e of takin! ste"s and en!a!in! in treatment. But many "eo"le in hos"ital for al ohol- or toba o-related "roblems haven1t rea hed the "oint of de idin! to ta kle their habits. Enderstandin! about these different sta!es makes it easier to see #hat mi!ht be blo kin! han!e. Someone in the +re"aration sta!e mi!ht #ant to han!e but not see ho# to. Someone in the Contem"lation sta!e may be stu k in ambivalen e* #here "art of them #ants to han!e but another "art isn1t so sure. This model an also be a""lied to the #ay #e think and a t in res"onse to limate han!e and "eak oil. Ten years a!o* most "eo"le #eren1t even thinkin! about limate han!e. 6o# there1s been a bi! shiftK most "eo"le have moved at least into ontem"lation* and many into a tion. But "eo"le may be at different sta!es #ith different behaviours. They an be in the a tion sta!e of usin! lo#-ener!y li!ht bulbs* but at the thinkin! sta!e #hen onsiderin! flyin! or ar use. $ith "eak oil* mu h of the "ubli are still in the "re- ontem"lation sta!e of res"ondin! to this. There is a mu h lo#er level of "ubli a#areness about oil de"letion. This is han!in! fast* thou!h. The other t#o sta!es are /ela"se and &aintenan e. $ith any han!e* movement an be ba k#ard as #ell as for#ard. There may be initial !ood "ro!ress* but then "eo"le lose heart or be ome om"la ent* leadin! to a rela"se ba k to a former sta!e. That1s #hy the &aintenan e sta!e of han!e is im"ortant - that #e look at ho# to onsolidate !ains and kee" !oin! in the lon! term.
How do insights from the addictions field help the environmental movement understand how change happens1
A ommon idea in environmental am"ai!nin! is that if "eo"le only kno# ho# a#ful thin!s are* then they #ill han!e. So the fo us of many am"ai!ns is on deliverin! information* often #ith disturbin! !ra"hi ima!es and horror stories. A#areness-raisin! is of ru ial im"ortan e but you only have to look at a "a ket of i!arettes to see the limits of this a""roa h. The information JSmokin! =illsJ in bi! letters isn1t enou!h to dis oura!e many smokers. $hat the addi tions field is !ood at is understandin! and #orkin! #ith resistan e to han!e.
A""roa hes like &otivational -ntervie#in! have been develo"ed as #ays of #orkin! #ith "eo"le #ho have mi%ed feelin!s about han!e. There is massive resistan e to ta klin! environmental issues* and #e need to start bein! more reative in ho# #e res"ond to this. There are im"ortant lessons here to learn from the addi tions field.
To what e/tent is it possible to say that we are %addicted to oil%1

As an addi tions s"e ialist* -1d say that industrialised so ieties are hooked on oil in a #ay that sho#s si!nifi ant features of addi tion. &any "eo"le a e"t this* in ludin! Geor!e $. Bush3 But the term addi tion an be a diffi ult one be ause it has no universally a!reed definition. still think it is a useful term thou!h* as addi tions refer to stu k "atterns of behaviour that an be diffi ult to han!e even #hen #e kno# they1re ausin! harm. That1s e%a tly #hat #e1ve !ot #ith our urrent "attern of fossil-fuel use. &any of my al oholi lients find the term 1addi tion1 useful* be ause it hel"s e%"lain #hy they find it so diffi ult to sto" drinkin!. -t needs more than 5ust a ons ious rational de ision. 7ven #hen they do that* dee"ly in!rained habits an be hard to shift and tem"orary !ains an be easily lost throu!h rela"se. But on e they1ve a e"ted there1s somethin! alled addi tion in the #ay* they an !ive it their attention and learn strate!ies to ta kle this.
Why might it be useful to say we are %addicted to oil%1

-n industrialised ountries* a lifestyle that de"ends on very heavy oil use is seen as normal. The first sta!e in ta klin! a "roblem is to re o!nise it* and #hen #e a""ly a term like 1addi tion1 to oil* it Huestions the #ay #e use it. $hen lookin! at 1"roblemati substan e use1* it is useful to re o!nise three ty"es of "roblem2 ha;ardous use* harmful use and de"endent use. 7a h of these an be a""lied to heavy oil onsum"tion. Ha;ardous use is #hen someone1s onsum"tion of a substan e !enerates risks for the future. &any heavy-drinkers do not think of themselves as havin! a "roblem* but if they ontinue to drink at hi!h levels* they in rease the risk of medi al om"li ations. -n a similar #ay* if #e ontinue heavy use of fossil fuels like oil* #e1re likely to run into t#o main ha;ards dan!erous limate han!e and an ener!y famine #hen oil reserves run lo#. There1s a sayin! in the addi tions field2 J-f you arry on the #ay you1re !oin!* you1ll end u" #here you1re headed.J ,ur urrent "attern of oil use is ha;ardous be ause of #here it is takin! us. Harmful use is #here onsum"tion of a substan e has already started ausin! "roblems. Climate han!e an be thou!ht of as a to%i effe t of heavy use of fossil fuels. -n many "arts of the #orld* "eo"le are already e%"erien in! disturbed #eather "atterns. -n 7uro"e* heat#aves have killed thousands of "eo"le. -n Afri a* drou!hts have fuelled onfli ts and famine. And in 6orth Ameri a* an in rease in the intensity of hurri anes has led to massive urban dama!e* most notably in 6e# ,rleans. $hile the future risks are mu h !reater* the harm from limate han!e is already here. -f someone re o!nised their use of a substan e #as a threat to life* then in normal ir umstan es this #ould be enou!h to motivate han!e. But #hen someone is de"endent on
somethin!* the idea of sto""in! use* or even redu in!* is threatenin!. So in de"endent use* someone may either blo k out information that su!!ests their favoured substan e is harmful* or they may ontinue usin! it* even #hen they kno# it ould be killin! them. De"endent use is #hen someone is hooked liked this. The value of re o!nisin! de"enden e is that it allo#s you to anti i"ate* and deal #ith* the additional obsta les to han!e this brin!s. /e o!nisin! oil de"enden e makes it easier to understand #hy it mi!ht be diffi ult to #ean ourselves off our oil habit* #hile also "ointin! us to#ards "roven strate!ies from the addi tions field that mi!ht hel" us move for#ard.
#o how can addictions treatment help1

Climate han!e tends to be thou!ht of as an environmental issue* and "eak oil as a resour e issue2 both mi!ht be seen as havin! distant auses that #e an do little about. But oil de"enden e is to do #ith human behaviourK that1s mu h loser to home and #ithin our "o#er to han!e. The Sta!es of Chan!e model is useful here be ause it ma"s out the 5ourney needed for re overy. The first sta!e of han!e is be omin! a#are of the "roblem. This starts us thinkin! about the issue* movin! us into the Contem"lation Sta!e. But it is easy to !et stu k here if a onfli t develo"s bet#een the "art of us that sees the need for han!e* and the "art a ustomed to usin! the substan e and not #antin! to !o #ithout it. :ust think of all the thin!s in your life that you a""re iate that you #ouldn1t have if #e didn1t have oil. There are so many3 And they be ome reasons for !oin! slo# in ta klin! the "roblem. The a""roa h of &otivational -ntervie#in! develo"ed as a #ay of dealin! #ith su h mi%ed feelin!s. By "rovidin! a listenin! s"a e #here someone an voi e both their on erns and their resistan es* ambivalen e is brou!ht into vie# #here it an be dealt #ith. This hel"s "eo"le !et learer about #hat they really #ant* and so move into the ne%t sta!es if they #ant to ta kle the issue.
How can insights from addictions be utilised practically by Transition 0nitiatives1

-1ve boiled this do#n to three "rin i"les that are already bein! a""lied #ithin the Transition movement2 a0 +ay attention to the ste"s of han!e that ha""en inside "eo"le. ,ne of the lessons of addi tions re overy is that information !ivin!* by itself* isn1t enou!h. -n the Sta!es of Chan!e model* be omin! a#are of an issue is only the first ste"K this moves someone from +re- ontem"lation to Contem"lation. -t is easy to !et stu k at this 1thinkin! about1 sta!e* and this is #here insi!hts from the addi tions field are hel"ful. By havin! 1Heart and Soul !rou"s1* Transition -nitiatives "ay attention to the ste"s of han!e* and the blo ks to han!e* that ha""en inside "eo"le. This allo#s them to address issues like motivation* resistan e and ambivalen e.
b0 Create s"a es for "eo"le to feel heard in makin! their o#n ar!uments for han!e. A ore insi!ht of &otivational -ntervie#in! .&-0 is that #hen "eo"le make their o#n ar!ument for han!e* they talk themselves into ta klin! an issue. /ather than tryin! to "ersuade "eo"le* the fo us of &- is on reatin! a listenin! s"a e that su""orts "eo"le to e%"ress their ho"es and on erns. This is a #ay of ultivatin! the motivation needed to #ork throu!h ambivalen e and move throu!h resistan e. &ost "oliti al meetin!s have an a tive s"eaker talkin! to a relatively "assive audien e. A motivational intervie#in! a""roa h mi!ht also add an o""ortunity for the audien e to feel heard in makin! their o#n ar!uments for han!e. Several Transition events have done this throu!h the use of "aired listenin! e%er ises. At the laun h of Transition -nitiatives in Totnes* Le#es and Bristol* hundreds of "eo"le divided into "airs* #ith one as listener* the other as s"eaker. The s"eaker had t#o minutes of listenin! time for ea h of the follo#in! o"en senten es. J$hen - think about +eak ,il and Climate Chan!e* on erns - have in lude . . .J J&y "ositive vision for #hat -1d like to see ha""en in this to#n9 ity is . . .J JSte"s - an take to hel" make this ha""en in lude . . .J The listener1s role #as 5ust to !ive full attention to #hat #as bein! said. The roles s#a""ed after the three senten es* so that everyone !ot a han e to s"eak. This "ro ess took about t#enty minutes* and visibly raised the level of ener!y and enthusiasm amon!st those "resent. After the Bristol meetin!* one "arti i"ant said2 J$hen #e s"oke in "airs* somethin! ha""ened in the room. That #as #hen #e be ame a ommunity.J $hen #e e%"ress our on erns* #e talk ourselves into addressin! them. $hen #e !ive voi e to our visions* #e identify the destinations #e #ant to move to#ards. And by des ribin! the ste"s #e an take* #e "re"are ourselves for a tion. This sim"le tool is an e%am"le of a 1motivational nud!e1K it an hel" "rovoke the inner ste"s of han!e. 0 -f a han!e seems too diffi ult* have a "re"aration sta!e for trainin! ourselves. Chan!in! an addi tive behaviour an be so diffi ult that "eo"le sometimes !ive u"* believin! it to be im"ossible. -n my lini al #ork -1ve found it hel"ful to think of re overy as a 5ourney that may move throu!h a 1"hase of disbelief1. - dra# ins"iration from adventure stories that often be!in from a similar "la e of !loom. $hen the main hara ters rise to the hallen!e and be!in lookin! for a #ay* they are more likely to find one. The Huest for a #ay for#ard usually involves seekin! out mentors and !uides* #ho "ass on the skills and insi!hts needed to turn the im"ossibility around. By in ludin! a +re"aration sta!e* the Sta!es of Chan!e model offers an alternative to !ivin! u" #hen hallen!es like "eak oil or limate han!e seem too diffi ult to address. The +re"aration "hase is #here #e train ourselves to stren!then our a"a ity to res"ond. Transition -nitiatives don1t 5ust involve tellin! "eo"le about the "roblem and am"ai!nin!. They also involve "ra ti al trainin! in the skills needed for a "ost-oil so iety. But as #ell as "ra ti al trainin!* "sy holo!i al trainin! is also needed in ho# to ultivate "ositive visions and find #ays of dealin! #ith inner 1dreamblo kers1 like fear* yni ism and disbelief.
Disbelief an be hallen!ed by seekin! out ins"irin! e%am"les2 addi tions re overy* adventure stories and Cuba1s boun e-ba k from ener!y famine are referen e "oints that su""ort the "ossibility of turnarounds from oil-de"enden e. -n my book Find 4our +o#er offer a toolkit of strate!ies for turnin! around feelin!s of im"ossibility and findin! #ays throu!h inner blo ks to han!e. Su h inner trainin! is "art of the "re"aration needed for reative transition out of the oil a!e.
What strengths might the integration of these tools and insights add to Transition 0nitiatives1
7nvironmental am"ai!ns tend to fo us on a#areness and a tion. But bet#een these there1s a series of internal ste"s* and han!e an be ome blo ked at any one of these. Transition -nitiatives are stren!thened #hen they take a ount of both the inner and outer dimensions of han!e. $ithout this* #hen #e en ounter resistan e to han!e #e1re in dan!er of fallin! into om"laint and blame* rather than develo"in! understandin! and insi!htful res"onses. There is a lose "arallel to #hat ha""ens #hen someone has a drinkin! "roblem. 6a!!in! res"onses in relatives are understandable* but they an dee"en the resistan e to han!e. $e need to a e"t that #hen "eo"le are de"endent on substan es* as #e are #ith oil* there are resistan es to han!e that #e need to take into a ount. The addi tions field has been #orkin! #ith su h resistan e for de ades. &odels have evolved for understandin! and #orkin! #ith blo ks to han!e. 7ffe tive tools have been develo"ed. The hallen!e #e fa e is about transition and usin! the tools and insi!hts from one field in another.
The :3*.4# model

,ne model from the addi tions field that - have found to be "arti ularly useful* and #hi h offers a #ay of "ullin! to!ether the threads of this ha"ter - indeed of the book thus far - is somethin! kno#n as the F/A&7S model* devised by &iller and San he;. -n the onte%t of this book* the F/A&7S model offers a tem"late for ho# #e an a""ly insi!hts from addi tion to "ra ti al res"onses to ener!y des ent. The overla""in! of these t#o fields is very e% itin!. -n essen e* the F/A&7S model om"rises si% elements ommonly in luded in brief interventions to addi tion that have sho#n to be "arti ularly effe tive. $e ould think of them as bein! best "ra ti e for res"ondin! to addi tion. The a ronym F/A&7S stands for2

Feedba k /es"onsibility Advi e &enu of o"tions 7m"athy Self-effi a y
.6ot in any kind of hronolo!i al order0.

:eedback of personal risk or impairment

-n the dru! and al ohol field* this relates to offerin! the lient an honest assessment of their addi tion "roblem and its "otential onseHuen es in order to raise a#areness of the "roblem. -n relation to "eak oil* many !rou"s be!in by sho#in! the film The 7nd of Suburbia* a frank assessment of the "eak oil hallen!e. An essential element of initiatin! su essful res"onses is makin! the level of the "roblem lear in stark terms. There is learly a balan e to be stru k bet#een the "otential sense of disem"o#erment and trauma that may be !enerated and a "ositive solutions-fo used "ro!ramme.
4mphasis on personal responsibility for change

For &iller and San he;* this relates to makin! an al oholi 9addi t a#are of the de!ree of "ersonal res"onsibility that breakin! the addi tion #ill reHuire. -n the ener!y des ent field* this relates to em"hasisin! that the reation of the "roblems of "eak oil and limate han!e is the result of many individual a tions* and that the solution reHuires takin! res"onsibility for these a tions. Clearly* a res"onse akin to a 1#artime mobilisation1 #ill reHuire the lar!e ma5ority of "eo"le takin! on some of this res"onsibility. The em"hasis here is on individual res"onsibility and hoi e* rather than merely tellin! "eo"le #hat they should do.
Clear advice to change

Clear advi e needs to be offered to break an addi tive "attern. Advi e has been sho#n to be effe tive* but it needs to be !iven as a re ommendation not as a "res ri"tion. -t an ome in t#o forms2 firstly advi e to individuals for modifyin! their o#n lifestyles* su h as ener!yeffi ien y advi e* and se ondly* as ommunity-s ale strate!ies for ener!y des ent. -ndeed* one ould see an 7ner!y Des ent +lan as bein! lear advi e to han!e on a ommunity s ale* settin! out a "lan for res"ondin! to #hat is ra"idly be omin! seen as a disastrous addi tion #ith "otentially atastro"hi results.
* menu of alternative change options

-n order to feel o#nershi" and a sense of res"onsibility for an 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan* "eo"le need to feel that they have e%"lored the alternatives. To arrive at the re ommendations this "lan #ould ontain reHuires a "ro ess of e%"lorin! #hat the different o"tions mi!ht be. Here the use of s enario "lannin! is very useful* as it enables "eo"le to "ro5e t for#ard and e%"lore different "ossible out omes .some of these s enarios #ere e%"lored in +art ,ne0. ,ther tools that are useful here are visionin! and ba k astin!* and one of the forms of this bein! e%"lored by Transition -nitiatives is the Transition Tales "ro5e t .see "".>>) and '((0 bein! develo"ed in Totnes* #hi h invites "eo"le to tell stories throu!h a variety of media* makin! a "o#er-do#n future feel like a tan!ible reality.
Therapeutic empathy as a counselling style

-n the field of addi tions* the idea that a!!ressive* authoritarian or oer ive a""roa hes are effe tive tools is in reasin!ly bein! dis redited. $hat is no# a e"ted as better "ra ti e is for the role of the ounsellor to be su""ortive* friendly* en oura!in! and em"atheti . Similarly* any a""roa h that seeks to en!a!e a si!nifi ant "ro"ortion of the "o"ulation in res"onses to ener!y des ent has to skilfully en!a!e #ith "eo"le and instill a sense of o"timism re!ardin! the "ossibility of han!e* rather than beratin! them for their "lanet-#re kin! #ays. This reation of a sense of embarkin! on a olle tive 5ourney #hi h Chris :ohnstone refers to may #ell be key to this. This "rin i"le also im"lies that the dialo!ue is a t#o-#ay "ro ess* that the "erson im"artin! the information is o"en to re eivin! information as #ell as !ivin! it. /ather than tellin! "eo"le #hat they should be thinkin! and9or doin!* an em"athi a""roa h seeks to en!a!e as #ell as edu ate.
4nhancement of client self-efficacy or optimism

This is key to the su ess of this "ro ess. The term self-effi a y refers to an individual1s estimate or "ersonal 5ud!ement of his or her o#n ability to su eed in rea hin! a s"e ifi !oal* su h as !ivin! u" al ohol or redu in! their de!ree of oil de"enden y. Buildin! this sense of 1 an do1 is essential in ataly;in! han!e on the s ale #e are talkin! about. 4ou #ill see in +art Three some of the #ays in #hi h Transition -nitiatives are buildin! this sense of o"timism and #orkin!* throu!h various a""roa hes* to build self-effi a y - a ommunity-#ide belief that #e an a tually do this. This is one of the key areas that !oes beyond the familiar a""roa h to environmental am"ai!nin! #ith #hi h #e have be ome most familiar* that is about disseminatin! information. There is a real hallen!e too* in terms of ho# to reate that sense of self-effi a y in diverse "o"ulations and ho# to desi!n an a""roa h that en!a!es the diverse ran!e of "eo"le that make u" our ommunities.
Chapter (: Harnessing the power of a positive vision

-t is one thin! to am"ai!n a!ainst limate han!e and Huite another to "aint a om"ellin! and en!a!in! vision of a "ostarbon #orld in su h a #ay as to enthuse others to embark on a 5ourney to#ards it. $e are only 5ust be!innin! to s rat h the surfa e of the "o#er of a "ositive vision of an abundant future2 one #hi h is ener!y-lean* time-ri h* less stressful* healthier and ha""ier. Bein! able to asso iate ima!es and a lear vision #ith ho# a "o#ereddo#n future mi!ht be is essential. - like to use the analo!y of invitin! a relu tant friend to 5oin you on holiday. -f you an
"assionately and "oeti ally "aint a mental "i ture of the bea h* the sunset and the andle-lit taverna by the sea* they #ill be more likely to ome. 7nvironmentalists have often been !uilty of "resentin! "eo"le #ith a mental ima!e of the #orld1s least desirable holiday destination some seedy bed and breakfast near TorHuay* #ith nylon sheets* old tea and so!!y toast and e%"e tin! them to !et e% ited about the "ros"e t of 6,T !oin! there. The lo!i and the "sy holo!y are all #ron!.
Why visions work

&y sense is that reatin! a vision #orks in many interrelated #ays. Tom Atlee #rites of reatin! #hat he alls an Jalternative story fieldJ. This in essen e is reatin! ne# myths and stories that be!in to formulate #hat a desirable sustainable #orld mi!ht look like. He talks of the "otential "o#er of brin!in! to!ether a tivists* reative #riters and 5ournalists to form 1thinktanks1 that reate ne# stories for our times. $hen #e start doin! 7ner!y Des ent #ork* #e should be lookin! to dra# in the novelists* "oets* artists* and storytellers. The tellin! of ne# stories is entral. -n Totnes #e have started to do this #ith our Transition Tales initiative* #hi h aims to !et "eo"le #ritin! stories from different "oints durin! Totnes1s transition* as ne#s"a"er arti les* stories* or a!ony aunt olumns. Some of these a""ear later in this ha"ter. Su h stories an ome in all sorts of forms. The "ilot Totnes +ound that Transition To#n Totnes .TTT0 ran until :une '((D #as also an e%am"le of this. +eo"le #ere able to hold in their hands a tan!ible* beautiful and s"endable banknote. -t told a ne# story about money* about its "ossibilities and about their ommunity. The on e"t of tellin! ne# stories #as also raised at the ,ffi ial Enleashin! of TTT in Se"tember '((C* #hen Chris :ohnstone said2 JTotnes has an o""ortunity here to be !round-breakin! internationally. &aybe in A(( years time* if humanity finds a #ay throu!h* they #ill look ba k at this time at the be!innin! of the '>st entury as a ru ial time* as the last de ade of the ,il A!e. &aybe they #ill tell stories about #hat ha""ened in Totnes. &aybe this evenin! #ill be somethin! that is the be!innin! of one of those stories. -f you look ahead at the future* there are !loomy "ossibilities* but there are also ins"irin! "ossibilities* and you are "art of an ins"irin! "ossibility by bein! here toni!ht.J The tool of visionin! offers a "o#erful ne# a""roa h for environmental am"ai!ners. $e have be ome so a ustomed to am"ai!nin! a!ainst thin!s that #e have lost si!ht of #here it is #e #ant to !o. ,ne of the best e%am"les of this re ently #as "rovided by Transition To#n Le#es* #hi h #hen onfronted by a lo al develo"er #ho #anted to develo" a key "art of the to#n* res"onded not #ith "rotests and "etitions* but #ith a vision - the fi titious ne#s"a"er arti le on "a!e IB. This is a !reat e%am"le of #hat Atlee alls 1ima!ineerin!1* and the reation of #hat he terms The 7 oto"ian Gra"evine Ga;ette #hi h he des ribes as J ontain.in!0 ima!inary ne#s stories about events or innovators that had not ha""ened yet* but #hi h - and others #anted to have ha""en* #ritten as if they had ha""ened. At the end of ea h arti le* - "ut the onta t name of someone readers ould all and "arti i"ate in makin! that story a reality.J
+eter /ussell* the "hysi ist and #riter* des ribes a olle tive vision in terms of a Stran!e Attra tor* as des ribed in haos theory. -n effe t it is like thro#in! a #hirl"ool in front of you #hi h then dra#s you to#ards it. -t has an ener!y* it is dynami . He adds2 JThere1s somethin! dee"er #hi h - an1t really e%"lain* but #hen there is a vision* it1s someho# not 5ust a motivation* but someho# the "sy he !ets involved in a #ay that seems to intera t #ith the #orld in a #ay that makes it easier for thin!s to a tually ha""en* thin!s seem to fall in "la e. - an1t e%"lain that rationally* but it1s somethin! that "eo"le noti e time and time a!ain. -f you1ve !ot a stron! vision of #here you1re !oin! - it1s as if the #orld seems to #ant to su""ort that vision. -t 5ust seems to do it.J <isionin! in this #ay has the added benefit of ountera tin! des"onden y. Climate han!e and "eak oil an be terrifyin!* be#ilderin! or seen as inevitably atastro"hi . :ames Lovelo k1s re ent book The /even!e of Gaia* #ith its "a"erba k edition featurin! a over like a >IB(s B-&ovie horror film* and #ebsites su h as ###.dieoff.or! set out s enarios so !rim that most "eo"le sim"ly s#it h offK they don1t #ant to en!a!e #ith them. - am a#are that bein! one of those "eo"le #ho an read a des"erately de"ressin! book about "eak oil and so ietal olla"se and dra# from it the ins"iration and motivation to do somethin! "ra ti al "uts me in an e%tremely small minority. As a s"e ies #ith the reativity* ada"tability and o""osable thumbs that enabled us to reate an ,il A!e in the first "la e* #e an be "retty ertain that there #ill be life beyond it. Similarly* #e may be able to "revent the #orst e% esses of limate han!e* and indeed the measures needed #ould almost ertainly make the #orld a far better "la e. Ho#ever* the "oint is that the #orld and our lifestyles #ill look very different from the "resent. -t is #orth rememberin! that it takes a lot of hea" ener!y to maintain the levels of so ial ineHuality #e see today* the levels of obesity* the re ord levels of indebtedness* the hi!h levels of ar use and alienatin! urban lands a"es. ,nly a ulture a#ash #ith hea" oil ould be ome de-skilled on the monumental s ale that #e have* to the e%tent that some youn! "eo"le - have met are lu ky to emer!e from uttin! a sli e of bread #ith all their fin!ers inta t. -t is no e%a!!eration to say that #e in the $est are the sin!le most useless !eneration .in term of "ra ti al skills0 to #hi h this "lanet has ever "layed host. Ho#ever* the first ste" to the reation of a lo alised* lo#ener!y-abundant future is a tually visionin! its "ossibility. - an* of ourse* lay no laim to the idea of visionin! the future as bein! uniHue to this book. Throu!hout history* humankind has al#ays reated visions of ho# the future mi!ht be - livin! in s"a e stations* flyin! to #ork in our o#n flyin! sau er* !oin! on holiday to the moon* for e%am"le. They rarely ever ome to "ass* thou!h* usually o#in! to our not takin! into a ount* amon! other thin!s* the amount of ener!y that sustainin! su h visions #ould reHuire. remember as a hild lyin! on the floor of my bedroom readin! Look and Learn ma!a;ine* and thinkin! that holiday tri"s to the moon #ould be on the ards for my adulthood. -1m still #aitin!* and* ho#ever mu h /i hard Branson mi!ht think holidays in s"a e mi!ht be "ossible* -1m not holdin! my breath.
Captain :uture - the wi?ard of science

,n the left is a "i ture of Ca"tain Future* the 1man of tomorro#1* "ublished in the ES bet#een
>IA( and >IB>* as a kind of lon!-runnin! 1s"a e o"era1. Ca"tain Future is the alter e!o of Curtis 6e#ton* a s"a e-traveller and s ientist for #hom life is a non-sto" #hirl of vanHuishin! su"ervillains* ta klin! alien mena es and !enerally bein! a !ood !uy in a universe of oddly sha"ed baddies. The stories be!in in >II(.30 #hen s ientists /o!er and 7laine 6e#ton and their brilliant s ientifi ollea!ue Simon $ri!ht move their laboratory to the &oon to enable them to ontinue their resear h in "ea e and Huiet. $ri!ht is very old and un#ell* so in order to be able to kee" #orkin! he trans"lants his brain into a lear "ers"e% bo%* #ith #ires on it #hi h* #hen atta hed to someone1s head .see "revious "a!e0* enables them to have $ri!ht1s thou!hts .a very early but some#hat more revoltin! version of the internet0. 6e#ton and $ri!ht reate various thin!s* in ludin! a robot alled Gra! and a sha"e-shiftin! android alled ,tho. Their lunar s ientifi idyll is ruelly s"oilt #hen the baddie* the evil and utterly dastardly <i tor =aslan* arrives and kills them all* a"art from their son* #ho is then brou!ht u" .some#hat un onventionally0 on the &oon* by a robot* an android and a brain in a bo%. -t is a hildhood* ho#ever* on #hi h he thrives* !ro#in! u" to be an in redible s ientist and athlete for #hom no hallen!e is too mu h. Ca"tain Future had a "en hant for hoverin! s"a e boots .#hi h disa""ointin!ly never ame to "ass0 and helmets that mira ulously never steamed u". He also a""ears to have relished sHuee;in! #omen into absurdly small ro kets that #ould "ani even the most a!ora"hobi flyer .see left0. ,f ourse* mu h of Ca"tain Future1s vision of the future didn1t ome to "ass. $e don1t have household robots* hasin! villains throu!h s"a e is somethin! that thankfully #e #ill never !et to do* and our future is likely to be far more terrestrial* far less #ell-travelled* and #ith the robots limited to the inside of ar fa tories. -t #ill be* ho#ever* ultimately "referable. 6on halantly ;a""in! enormous marshmallo# monsters on the &oon .see "a!e >((0 is not somethin! #e #ill be alled u"on to do. Ca"tain Future1s s ientifi brillian e and his "o#erful "hysiHue are somethin! #e mi!ht find useful* ho#ever.
@isions of abundance
6ot all visions of the future have to be Huite as absurd as that of Ca"tain Future. - have* over the last year or so* be ome #hat one mi!ht all a vora ious 1vision-harvester1. - am liable to ask the various e olo!i al thinkers and "ra titioners - bum" into #hat their visions are for a "o#ered-do#n future. Their ans#ers are intri!uin!. For some* su h as Ste"han Hardin!* author of Animate 7arth* a entral "art of his vision is the return of the role of #ilderness in our lives* our de reased e olo!i al foot"rint havin! allo#ed nature to re laim some of the s"a e around us. J- #ould kno#*J he told me* Jthat - ould "ut on my ru ksa k and #alk out of the villa!e .#here - live0 and into the forest and be really in the #ild ountry for days and days if - #anted to. . . . &y vision #ould be for an inter onne ted net#ork of e ovilla!es* #ith lots of #ild ountryside in bet#een* but also some lovely small ities #here there #ould be theatre* ulture* museums and !ood libraries* and !ood offee sho"s* !or!eous or!ani ar hite ture.J The "sy holo!i al and ultural effe ts of this re onne tion #ith Gaia #ould be* he ar!ued* hu!ely benefi ial.
For Brian Good#in* author of 6ature1s Due* a "o#ered-do#n future is one #here humanity be omes* as he "uts it* Jlar!ely invisibleJK that is* more blended into and in tune #ith our natural surroundin!s. He told me J-1m not talkin! about a /ousseau 1ba k to nature1K -1m talkin! about usin! a""ro"riate te hnolo!y* natural materials and ener!y to a hieve a lifestyle in #hi h #e blend #ith the natural #orld. $e #ill have learned ho# to live in a #ay that other s"e ies have* and therefore have redu ed our foot"rint* de reasin! it dramati ally to the "oint #here #e are one amon! many instead of an absolutely dominant s"e ies.J Systems thinker Frit5of Ca"ra1s vision of '(@( is one #here the e olo!i al "rin i"le of ommunity has be ome the entral or!anisin! fa tor for so iety. Takin! nature as the model* he told me* #ould mean that J#e #ould have "atterned our ommunities after . . . natural ommunities* #hi h means that #e #ould use solar ener!y as our main ener!y sour e* au!mentin! it #ith #ind* biomass* and so on. $e #ould have arran!ed our industries and our systems of "rodu tion in su h a #ay that matter y les ontinuously* that all materials y le bet#een "rodu ers and onsumers. $e #ould !ro# our food or!ani ally* and #e #ould shorten the distan e bet#een the farm and the table* "rodu in! food mainly lo ally. JAll of this #ould ombine to reate a #orld that has dramati ally redu ed "ollution* #here limate han!e has been brou!ht under ontrol* #here there #ould be "lenty of 5obs* be ause these various desi!ns are labour-intensive* and as an overall effe t there #ill be no #aste* and the Huality of life #ould in rease dramati ally.J For &e! $heatley* author of Leadershi" and the 6e# S ien e* this kind of visionin! is not hard* as she re o!nises the Hualities of this future and the relationshi"s #e #ould have #ith those around us* in e%istin! ommunities she has already s"ent time in. She identifies these as bein! ommunities J#here you re o!nise that you1re all #orkin! for the same values* for a shared vision* for similar !oals* and you1re not #orkin! at odds. 4ou don1t feel "olarised* you don1t feel afraid of truthful onversations* and you don1t retreat from ea h other* #hether it1s be ause of onfli t* or 5ust be ause - have no "atien e for #hat you think and ontrastin! it #ith #hat1s so "revalent ri!ht no#.J For Tony :uni"er* former e%e utive dire tor of Friends of the 7arth* the "rin i"al noti eable differen e #ould be that it #ould be Huieter* and "eo"le #ould be in less of a rush. JThere #ould be more sounds of "eo"le and less sounds of ma hines*J he told me* Jbe ause ommunities #ould have been rebuilt and there #ould be "eo"le ba k in the streets on e more* meetin! ea h other rather than e% han!in! abuse throu!h their ar #inds reens3J A ordin! to :uni"er1s vision* the im"roved Huality of life #ould be tan!ible. J-t #ould smell fresher* there #ould be less "ollution* less noise as #ell. . . . There #ould be more bi y les* more birdson! be ause the "ollution that has been asso iated #ith industrial a!ri ulture #ould have de lined* there #ould be more or!ani methods* so there #ould be more #ildlife ba k in the ountryside and the ities.J $hatever ha""ens* it is lear that #hat #ill ha""en over the ne%t t#enty years is almost unima!inable. $hen - asked Dennis &eado#s* one of the o-authors of the Limits to Gro#th series of books* he said2 J-f you think about the de!ree of han!e you sa# in the last >(( years - so ial* te hni al* ultural* "oliti al* environmental* all those han!es - it1s less than #hat you1ll see in the ne%t t#enty years.J These are e%traordinary times.
Chapter ): * vision for +!+ - looking back over the transition

-f - #ere to #ake u" in the E= of t#enty years hen e* #hi h had su essfully under!one a transition of the kind #e are talkin! about* life #ould be very different from the "resent. -t #ould have emer!ed from some very diffi ult times into a more settled "la e. -t #ould be far more lo ally oriented than the "resent* and #e #ould have mu h less reason to travel. Let1s take a look at ho# '(@( mi!ht look from the "ers"e tive of someone in '(@( lookin! ba k. have illustrated this belo# #ith some ne#s"a"er arti les from various "oints in the future.
:ood and farming

Farmin! has e%"erien ed a remarkable transformation* under!oin! a renaissan e that fe# in '(() ould have thou!ht "ossible. About t#enty years a!o* risin! oil "ri es* international limate han!e a!reements* and the findin!s of the /oyal Commission on Food Se urity* made the E= Government re onsider its ommitment to the $orld Trade ,r!anisation1s "ro!lobalisation* liberalised* unrestri ted free-trade a""roa h* leadin! to its re-"rioritisin! national food se urity above international trade. Also* lo al authorities a ross the ountry made lo al food "ro urement a "oli y "riority* thereby ki k-startin! a ra"id e%"ansion in the market for lo al food. Farms are no# hi!hly diversified* "rodu in! more than 5ust food* and are also "roviders of lo al-s ale rene#able ener!y* buildin! materials* and or!ani ally !ro#n medi inal "lants* amon! other thin!s. /isin! natural !as "ri es and disru"tions to su""ly e%"osed the vulnerability of E= farmin!1s de"enden e on nitro!en fertiliser .#hi h #as made from natural !as0. The buildin! of or!ani matter in soils due to their in reased ability to lo k u" arbon is no# a "riority* a key as"e t of the Government1s arbon redu tion strate!y. The inte!ration of "erennial tree ro"s is a entral feature of a!ri ulture* both for their ro" yields and for their arbon-seHuesterin! abilities. Stands of s"e ially bred varieties of #alnut* s#eet hestnut and ha;el have been inte!rated into most farms* offerin! "rotein-ri h annual ro"s for a variety of food uses as #ell as for "rodu in! oils for biodiesel for lo al onsum"tion. $ith the han!es in limate* a #ider ran!e of tree ro"s is no# !ro#n* as #ell as vines and other "erennials. Farmin! has learned to om"ensate for its redu ed oil onsum"tion throu!h the "artial reinte!ration of #orkin! horses* alon!side lo ally "rodu ed biofuel-"o#ered ma hinery* and by em"loyin! more "eo"le. The avera!e farm si;e is no# mu h smaller than in '(() and the ountryside is substantially more "o"ulated. Farms are no# host to a diversity of enter"rises* not 5ust food "rodu tion2 some no# "rodu e materials needed by a buildin! industry no# usin! more lo al buildin! materials* su h as lay "lasters* ob and hem"9lime blo ks* as #ell as lo al timbers. This in turn has enabled the reation of small-s ale industries to "ro ess and "rodu e these materials* often based on the farms. ,thers no# fo us on !ro#in! or!ani mushrooms for both ulinary and medi inal uses. Some
s"e ialise in !ro#in! hem" for fabri s* or "rodu in! #ood "ellets or biofuels su h as biodiesel or ethanol for the lo al market. For some farms* the installation of a methane di!ester means that they are able to su""ly heat and "o#er to the nei!hbourin! ommunity. This ne#ly found diversity of enter"rise* alon!side food "rodu tion* has led to a mu h re!enerated lo al e onomy* #ith the ma5or "art of ea h ommunity1s #ealth bein! y led lo ally rather than bein! lea hed out into the #ider e onomy. ,ver the last 'B years* food and farmin! in the E= has returned to bein! re!arded as entral to the se urity of the ountry. Food se urity is no# seen as not e% lusively an issue for develo"in! nations. As the risin! "ri e of fuel and demand for land for the short-lived biofuels industry be!an to inflate the "ri e of food around '(>>* #e found* for the first time in B( years* that it #as hea"er to eat lo al or!ani food. At the same time our diets* by ne essity* be ame more seasonal and less meat-based. Erban a!ri ulture is no# a "riority for urban "lanners and ommunities. Cities have been redesi!ned as "rodu tive "la es. The ity of London no# "rodu es C(O of its fresh ve!etables and @(O of its fruit in and around the ity - and Bristol is no# "ushin! )(O. A massive "ro!ramme of "rodu tive tree "lantin! has brou!ht fruit and nut trees into every "ark and s hool !rounds. Erban market !ardeners be!an to olonise land around the ed!e of the ities* "rodu in! a diversity of fresh "rodu e for lo al markets #ith e%tremely lo# food-miles .leadin! to the use of the term 1food feet10. The kee"in! of small livesto k* "arti ularly hi kens* has be ome the nation1s favourite "astime. $hat #ere lar!e "arks no# feature a diversity of allotments* market !ardens and horti ultural trainin! entres. Ba k !arden and allotment food "rodu tion #as already a very "o"ular leisure a tivity in '(()* but in '(>' the Government le!islated to make !ardenin! a key as"e t of their arbon redu tion and health "romotion strate!ies. 6o# lo al varieties of fruit and ve!etables are hi!hly treasured* and the tea hin! of intensive or!ani !ardenin! te hniHues is a ore "art of the 6ational Curri ulum* as "art of the nation1s Food Se urity "ro!ramme.
.edicine and health

Today our idea of health - ho# to reate it and maintain it - has han!ed markedly from that of t#enty years a!o. The Health Servi e had to rethink itself as the oil "ri e made many of its "ra ti es and a""roa hes unaffordable* and it fa ed the very real threat of olla"sin! om"letely. The losure of lo al hos"itals in favour of entralised ones - so ram"ant t#enty years a!o - has been reversed* and lo al health are entres are no# not 5ust about treatin! illness but "romotin! health in many diverse #ays. They have for!ed "artnershi"s #ith lo al s hools* "romotin! food !ro#in! and familiarisin! youn! "eo"le #ith the #hole food y le from seed to salad. The #ellbein! of the individual is seen as inse"arable from the health of the ommunity. Human biolo!y is no# a om"ulsory s hool sub5e t* and has e%"anded to in lude nutrition and basi herbalism. About half of the medi ines "res ribed by do tors are no# lo ally sour ed* #ith lo al farmers !ro#in! ertain key medi inal "lants #hi h are "ro essed in lo al laboratories. Lo al hemists also no# make over B(O of the medi ines they sell on the "remises. Do tors are able to "res ribe a ran!e of om"lementary treatments* as #ell as involvement in lo al
ommunity !ardens* and a ess to affordable !ood food. The !ro#th in a ess to meanin!ful #ork* the rebuildin! of so ial ohesion and an emer!in! ommon sense of "ur"ose* has resulted in fe#er stress-related illnesses and ases of de"ression. Conventional and om"lementary "ra titioners are seen very mu h as t#o sides of the same oin* and the on e"t of "romotin! health rather than 5ust treatin! disease has led to a ran!e of innovative measures. As a result of "eo"le1s movin! a#ay from bein! sedentary onsumers to be omin! more "hysi ally a tive "rodu er9 onsumers* there has been an in rease in mus ulo-skeletal "roblems. Do tors are no# able to issue "res ri"tions for* for e%am"le* Ale%ander te hniHue sessions. -t has be ome more ommon"la e* as in China* to see free Tai Chi sessions in lo al "arks in the mornin!. Te hnolo!y has also enabled ertain tests and observations to take "la e online in the "atient1s o#n home* #hat is kno#n as 1tele-medi ine1.
4ducation
7du ation in '(() #as #oefully inadeHuate* !iven the s ale of the Transition to ome. -t be ame lear around '(>( that youn! "eo"le leavin! s hool #ere un"re"ared for the more "ra ti al demands that the emer!in! "o#ered-do#n #orld made of themK their s hool years had left them unable to build* ook* mend* !arden or re"air* and the Government de lared that youth #as in risis and edu ation needed fundamental reform. A ne# urri ulum #as a""roved in '(>' #hi h re-em"hasised vo ational edu ation firmly rooted on foundations of sustainability and resilien e-buildin!. From "rimary s hool level u"#ards* !ardenin!* ookin! and #ood#ork skills have be ome a ore "art of the "ro!ramme for the first time sin e the >IB(s. S hool !rounds have been transformed into intensive !ardens* #ith many students runnin! their o#n enter"rises. By se ondary s hool a!e* students no# learn onstru tion* as #ell as reatin!* installin! and maintainin! rene#able ener!y systems* alon!side so ial skills like onfli t resolution and ommunity leadershi". For adults* Colle!es of the Great /eskillin! are no# entral to most to#ns* offerin! a variety of ourses in a #ide ran!e of "ra ti al sustainability skills for the "ubli as #ell as retrainin! for "rofessionals. The number of smaller lo al s hools around the ountry be!an to !ro# around '(>B* as the "ri e of liHuid fuels made it unfeasible for hildren to travel lon! distan es to s hool. By '(>) many of the lar!er om"rehensive s hools and universities #ere no lon!er able to attra t their intakes from lar!e areas and had to rethink ho# they used their fa ilities. $ith unused s"a e on their hands they diversified* and are no# also home to in ubator units for ne# businesses* #ith skilled rafts"eo"le havin! their #orksho"s and offerin! a""renti eshi"s onsite. Those s hools #hi h have be ome farms or intensive market !ardens also no# feature a diversity of value-addin! enter"rises. S hools are no# vibrant* "rodu tive* bustlin! "la es* firmly rooted in* and key ontributors to* the lo al e onomy.
4conomy
The #ay the e onomy #orks* and the #ay #e think of money* has han!ed si!nifi antly sin e '((). The !lobalised e onomi model be!an to run into si!nifi ant diffi ulties sometime around '(>( #hen #orld oil "rodu tion "eaked. A "eriod of sustained re ession follo#ed2 a diffi ult transition* as our over-relian e on forei!n investment and "erilous levels of onsumer debt be ame a""arent. +arallel to this re ession #as the vi!orous emer!en e of more lo alised e onomies. $ith national urren y in short su""ly and "ension s hemes in tatters* to#ns and ities #ere for ed to develo" their o#n e onomi systems. 6e# forms of trade are no# ommon"la e* #ith systems su h as L7TS and Time Banks flourishin!. To#ns and ities* as they did histori ally in times of hardshi"* no# "rodu e their o#n "rinted urren ies* only usable #ithin the to#n. Lo al investment models have been develo"ed* #hereby "eo"le invest their money in #ays that su""ort the e onomi re!eneration of the ommunity. As the fo us be omes in reasin!ly lo al* "eo"le no# find the "er enta!e of their daily transa tions ondu ted in national urren y ontinuin! to fall. &oney is no# more ans#erable to the ommunities it serves. These lo al urren ies may be ba ked by the national urren y* but in reasin!ly they are ba ked by lo ally "rodu ed ener!y or food "rodu tion. 7a h to#n and ity no# has its o#n "rinted urren y used by all lo al businesses and "roudly bearin! the heads of "rominent lo al histori al fi!ures. As "art of national !overnment "oli ies to stren!then lo al e onomies* !overnment !rants and fundin! for the ommunity are invested in the lo al urren y and lo al authorities also a e"t "art "ayment of Coun il Ta% in lo al urren ies. Sho"s "ay "art of their business rates and their lo al su""liers in them. As !lobalised business models have be!un to unravel* lo al entre"reneurs have ste""ed in to fill the !a"s. -n the >I@(s nearly all businesses #ere o#ned by lo al "eo"leK a hundred years later this is true on e a!ain. The myth that a stron! e onomy an only emer!e if it is based on in#ard investment is no# seen as an oddly #ar"ed ar!ument from the A!e of Chea" ,il. For ommunities de"endent on !lobalised businesses* the transition #as "arti ularly diffi ult* but led to a firm ommitment to buildin! stable lo al e onomies.
Transport
+rivate ar o#nershi" is no# no lon!er the norm. -ndeed* other than in some very rural areas* !iven the e%tent of the "ubli trans"ort system and the re"rioritisation of urban streets to favour y lists* "edestrians* trams and buses* "rivate ar o#nershi" is seen as "ositively antiso ial. The idea that one ould live in a rural area and live an urban lifestyle has be ome a thin! of the "ast. /ural ommunities have re-or!anised themselves around the re- reation of lo al em"loyment* "rodu tion and ommunity. This has inevitably meant that over t#enty or so years the "o"ulation has han!ed as those seekin! a more a tive* "rodu tive* rural lifestyle have moved out of the ities* #hile those seekin! the enhan ed so iability of urban livin! have headed in the o""osite dire tion. Car lubs are a lot more ommon* allo#in! "eo"le a ess to ars #ithout needin! to o#n themK they also mean that ars are better used.
Chea" air fli!hts are looked ba k on #ith nostal!ia. The inability to travel lon! distan es has had the added advanta!e that "eo"le are more onne ted to their immediate area* more intimately a Huainted #ith its nooks and rannies. Ba k in '((D* lo al "eo"le #ere more familiar #ith +aris than 7%eter* #ith Delhi than &an hester3 Shar" rises in fuel "ri es and the Government1s de ision in '((I to ta% aviation fuel sent many of the bud!et airline om"anies out of business. Althou!h air travel and the "rivate ar #ere the trans"ort se tor1s losses* ommer ial sail-"o#er returned #ith a ven!ean e* and other #inners in luded tram and bi y le manufa turers. +art of the "ro ess of relo alisation has been a slo#in! do#n from the freneti "a e that ty"ified life in '((). This has redu ed the need to dash off some#here e%oti to 1rela%1. +eo"le no#adays are more dra#n to lon! summer days on their allotments* slee"in! in their summerhouses* takin! lon! y le rides and familiarisin! themselves #ith the e olo!y and history of their biore!ion. -ndeed* the transformation of our to#ns and ities from lar!e* bland "la es #ith a fe# 1entertainment1 venues* to diverse "la es #ith !ardens* "onds* art#orks* more o""ortunities for meetin! and #orkin! #ith "eo"le* and !enerally more to see and do* has !iven "eo"le less reason to travel to be entertained. -n '(>'* the advent of 1"eak ars1 . losely follo#in! 1"eak oil10 meant that demand for ar "arkin! s"a es be!an to fall* leadin! to oun ils lookin! for different uses for their lar!e e%"anses of underused tarma .for #hose u"kee" they #ere res"onsible0. &any of these areas #ere handed ba k to ommunity ontrol* and be ame ommunity market !ardens and entres for Great /eskillin! trainin!. +ubli trans"ort is no# e% e"tionally #ell thou!ht out and inte!rated. &any of the small bran h rail lines shut do#n by Bee hin! in the >IC(s #ere reo"ened* to the !reat benefit of both the ommunities and lo al farmers #ho an no# use them to send "rodu e to lo al markets. Erban streets no# "rioritise "edestrians and y lists* ars havin! been desi!ned out of many "ubli s"a es.
4nergy
The E= has rea hed* thanks to an e%traordinary rash "ro!ramme initiated in '(>(* a "oint of near self-relian e in ener!y. This #as a hieved throu!h a B(O redu tion in ener!y onsum"tion and a massive s alin!-u" of rene#ables to "rovide the remainin! B(O of ener!y demand. This #as brou!ht about "artly by the introdu tion in '(>( of arbon rationin!* based on the model of Tradeable 7ner!y ?uotas .T7?s0 develo"ed by David Flemin!* #hi h allo ated to ea h iti;en and business a arbon allo#an e #hi h #as !radually redu ed ea h year* and mana!ed ele troni ally #ith a s#i"e ard* used #ith every "ur hase of ener!y or fuel. Sin e their introdu tion* T7?s have ra"idly be ome a fa t of life* #ith some "eo"le no# a tually makin! "art of their in ome by livin! sim"ly and tradin! their sur"lus Huotas. A nation#ide rash "ro!ramme of domesti ener!y effi ien y and retrofit be!un in '((I has brou!ht do#n domesti onsum"tion by C(O. +art of the su ess of this #as the mainstreamin! of ener!y effi ien y. $hile domesti solar "anels and #ind turbines be ame seen as 1must haves1 around '(>(* as "ri es ame do#n and there #as in reased !rant aid* the mu h less !lamorous #ork of retrofits still needed a "ush. This #as* in "art* a hieved by en!a!in! lo al artists* #ho re on eived the installation of
insulation and other ener!y-savin! devi es as a settlement-#ide art installation* akin to the artist Christo #ra""in! buildin!s and islands. The remainin! ener!y demand has been made u" from a mi%ture of #ind .as mu h as half of it0* in ludin! a bi! "ro!ramme of offshore #ind "ro5e ts* as #ell as biomass-fuelled Combined Heat and +o#er systems and tidal "o#er. &any to#ns have hel"ed to redu e their demand on the !rid by reatin! lo alised ener!y mini-!rids* often o#ned and mana!ed by lo ally o#ned ener!y om"anies usin! the 7SC, model* an a""roa h first tried many years a!o in $okin!* Surrey. These bodies "ut in "la e rene#able ener!y infrastru ture #hi h is o#ned and su""orted by the ommunity. These mini-!rids are "o#ered by #hatever has been identified as the most lo ally a""ro"riate ener!y sour es* be it tidal in oastal areas* biomass in the Forest of Dean* or #ind in the S ottish Hi!hlands - usually a mi%ture of a ran!e of sour es. They are onne ted to the 6ational Grid in order to e% han!e sur"lus or obtain ba ku" #hen ne essary* but ommunities !eneratin! their o#n "o#er in this #ay have develo"ed an im"ortant tool for stren!thenin! their lo al e onomies* enablin! the money from its !eneration to be retained in the lo al e onomy. -t is standard "ra ti e no# that many homes* es"e ially ne#-build ones* are net ener!y e%"orters* thanks to !enerous subsidies for solar "o#er ."assive solar and "hotovoltai s0. The sur"lus ener!y !enerated is fed into lo al mini-!rids #here they e%ist* or into the 6ational Grid. 7very home is fitted #ith a smart meter* #hi h allo#s the o u"ants to see at a !lan e ho# mu h ener!y is bein! used in the house at that moment. 7ner!y om"anies also use tariffs in ima!inative #ays* har!in! less for ele tri ity at ertain times so as to en oura!e less "eak demand at other times. +eo"le look ba k over the last t#enty years #ith a sense of enormous a hievement. $hat looked like an insurmountable hallen!e in '(() has been ta kled #ith a united effort and #ith !reat ima!ination. +eo"le look ba k to the #astefulness of t#enty years a!o #ith astonishment and a ertain amount of distaste. The ne# ener!y e onomy is leaner* but "eo"le no# a""re iate that one1s de!ree of "ersonal ha""iness does not dire tly orrelate to the si;e of one1s ener!y onsum"tion.
Housing
The nation1s housin! sto k* #hi h althou!h it looks to all intents and "ur"oses mu h like it did in '(()* is today far more ener!y-effi ient. -n '(>A* the model of the Lo al +assivHaus be ame the standard for all ne# domesti onstru tion a ross the E=K based on "ioneerin! resear h by /ob & Leod in '((D #hi h ombined the te hnolo!i al advan es of the 7uro"ean +assivHaus on e"t #ith the use of lo ally sour ed biomaterials. This model allo#ed the onstru tion of homes #hi h reHuire no s"a e-heatin! at all* dra#in! all their heatin! reHuirements from solar !ain and the o u"ants1 body heat. -n the lo al version* in e% ess of )(O of the materials used are lo ally sour ed. This in turn has led to an e%"losion of lo al industries "rodu in! lay "lasters* natural insulation and ob9hem" blo ks. The breathable onstru tion and the materials used in the Lo al +assivHaus has led to buildin!s that are very healthy to live in* #ith very lo# embodied ener!yK they also ontain si!nifi ant amounts of stored arbon and ontribute very fe#
"ollutin! 1buildin! miles1. All ne# buildin!s are desi!ned to be autonomous and off-the-!rid for #ater and se#a!e needs* as #ell as "rodu in! more ener!y than they onsume olle tively .as #ith a ro# of terra ed houses for e%am"le0 or* for stand-alone buildin!s* inde"endently. 6e# models for inhabitin! lar!er buildin!s* and ne# livin! arran!ements - su h as ohousin!* #here "eo"le have "rivate units but some shared fa ilities - have be ome far more ommon. $hile the retreat in house "ri es of '((I resulted in hard times for many* they also made home o#nershi" feasible for youn! "eo"le a!ain* as did falls in the rates of se ond home o#nershi". The avera!e foot"rint of ne#-build homes has fallen* and one of the !reat arts for ar hite ts is no# the effi ient desi!n of the small home. 4ears a!o* one1s sense of so ial #orth #as based on the si;e of one1s houseK no# it is based on its om"a tness and effi ient desi!n. -n rural areas* in res"onse to the demands of ad5ustin! to the needs of a mu h e%"anded a!ri ultural #orkfor e* lusters of small* lo#-im"a t buildin!s* built from lo al materials* have been reated on farms. A!ri ultural ties have been used to kee" these from be omin! "rivately o#ned* based on the 1>B Criteria for Sustainable Develo"ment in the Countryside1* develo"ed by the rural "lannin! reform or!anisation 1Cha"ter D1. -n '(>>* the Government initiated the on e"t of the Great /eskillin! in the trainin! of onstru tion industry #orkers. Added to the skills tau!ht #ere the skilled use of hem" and lime* ob blo ks* and so on - a mu h broader set of skills than had "reviously been tau!ht. A tri" to the lo al builder1s mer hants today "resents the builder #ith a ran!e of materials vastly different from those of '((D2 ba!!ed lay "lasters* stra# and lay* reed and lay boards* hem" or ob blo ks* lime or lay renders* laths* lo ally made natural "aints* "i!ments from lo al lays* and a #ide ran!e of lo ally !ro#n and sa#n timbers* as #ell as underfloor insulatin! "ellets made from e%"anded re y led !lass. /e y lin! has han!ed from '((D* #hen it involved lon! distan e trans"ortation for entralised industrial "ro essin!* to bein! "rimarily fo used on lo al* lo# te hnolo!y re"ro essin!* and many ne# innovative buildin! materials are no# made from the lo#-te h re y lin! of "lasti s* "a"er* fabri s and !lass.
Chapter ,: -insale - a first attempt at community visioning

The -insale 4nergy 5escent *ction and how it came about

=insale .Cionn tSZ[ile in Gaeli 0 is a to#n 'B miles south of Cork City in County Cork* -reland. -t has a "o"ulation of around '*@((* and is a "o"ular destination for tourists* both -rish and international* #ho ome for fishin!* sailin!* !olf and the !ourmet food for #hi h it is kno#n. -n Se"tember '((( - initiated a "erma ulture ourse in the to#n1s Further 7du ation Colle!e*
#hi h already had a stron! re"utation for art* drama* and multi-media ourses. -n its first year the ourse #as essentially an e%"anded "erma ulture desi!n ourse* but over the ne%t three years it !re# to be ome a t#o-year full-time ourse #ith modules in "erma ulture desi!n* or!ani !ro#in!* natural buildin!* sustainable #oodland mana!ement* onfli t resolution* ommunity leadershi"* startin! your o#n business* nutrition and field e olo!y. -t is one of the first su h ourses in the #orld. The ourse #as* and still is* e%tremely "o"ular* and attra ts students from around the #orld. The !rounds of the olle!e have been transformed* as a result of the ins"ired hard !raft of !enerations of "erma ulture students* from bein! an e%"anse of la#n to a diverse "erma ulture lands a"e* featurin! a small o""i e #oodland* a stra#-bale house* a "olytunnel and ve!etable beds* a forest !arden* a small "ond* and its ro#nin! !lory* the ord#ood am"hitheatre* built entirely usin! lo al materials. -n Se"tember '((A* on the first day of term* the students #ere sho#n a ne# film alled The 7nd of Suburbia .the first time - sa# it0* and then* later that day* Dr Colin Cam"bell of the Asso iation for the Study of +eak ,il !ave a talk to the students. The ombined effe t of this 1double #hammy1 #as very "o#erful for the students. -t !reatly fo used the mind* and ame as Huite a sho k to everyone - myself in luded. 1+ost-"etroleum stress disorder1 manifested itself in diverse #ays. ,n e the mental dust had settled* the on e"t emer!ed of a "ro5e t for the se ond-year "erma ulture students* #hi h .on the assum"tion that Cam"bell1s fore asts #ould be "roved to be true0 set out to e%"lore ho# the to#n of =insale mi!ht su essfully make the transition to a lo#er-ener!y future. The first thin! - did #hen on eivin! the "ro5e t #as to look around for e%istin! e%am"les of this already ha""enin!. Astonishin!ly* #e ould find nothin! at that "oint that onstituted a ommunity res"onse to "eak oil* des"ite s ourin! the internet. There #ere some useful tools in :ames and Lahti1s 6atural Ste" for Communities* some initial thinkin! by the +ost Carbon -nstitute* and the t#o key books that most ins"ired the "ro ess* /i hard Heinber!1s +o#erdo#n and David Holm!ren1s +erma ulture - "rin i"les and "ath#ays beyond sustainability. +o#erdo#n takes the reader on a 5ourney e%"lorin! humanity1s o"tions beyond the "eak. Heinber! ar!ues that the desirable out ome lies some#here bet#een #hat he alls 1+o#erdo#n1 .a national !overnment-led "ro!ramme of e onomi ontra tion and relo alisation0 and 1Buildin! Lifeboats1 . ommunities res"ondin! by buildin! lo al infrastru ture and self-relian e0. $hile the book ontains little in the #ay of "ra ti al su!!estions for ho# this desired out ome mi!ht be a hieved* it remains a seminal analysis of humanity1s o"tions* and the on e"t of 1+o#erdo#n1 has entered the olle tive ons iousness. .The brief - set for this "ro5e t is !iven in A""endi% @.0 Havin! re eived their "ro5e t brief* the students divided into "airs and took on different to"i s. They dre# u" a list of the relevant "eo"le in the to#n* and - su!!ested useful readin! and #ebsites. $e invited these "eo"le to ome in and s"eak to the !rou"* and #ent on a number of visits to "erma ulture sites* or!ani farms* and !reen buildin!s* to ask for the in"ut and insi!hts of those #ho have been "ra ti ally en!a!ed in this kind of #ork in the area for many years. ,n Saturday February >'th '((B #e held an event in =insale To#n Hall alled 1=insale in
'('>2 To#ards a +ros"erous* Sustainable Future To!ether1. The event #as "resented as a 1 ommunity think-tank1* in order to hear the ommunity1s ideas about ho# ener!y des ent #ould affe t the ommunity and #hat mi!ht be done about it. $e sent "ersonal invitations to the movers and shakers in the to#n* dra#n from the se tors identified in the "ro5e t brief. The event #as also o"en to the "ubli * and #e "ut "osters u" around the to#n. From the C( "eo"le invited* about A( turned u" on the day. The event itself #as o"ened by the then &ayor of =insale* &r Charles Henderson* #ho s"oke of the im"ortan e of ener!y as an issue and ho# it affe ts all as"e ts of our lives and our e onomy. This #as follo#ed by a s reenin! of The 7nd of Suburbia. After the film #e introdu ed the on e"t of ,"en S"a e Te hnolo!y as a tool for fa ilitatin! ommunity e%"loration. +eo"le #ere invited to identify the s"e ifi "roblems and issues that the film raised for them. These #ere then re orded on lar!e sheets of "a"er* "inned u" on the #all and then ollated into sub5e t areas* ea h of these be omin! the basis for a dis ussion !rou". The !rou"s overed the follo#in! sub5e ts2 Food* /ebuildin! Communities* 4outh Grou"9 7du ation* Business \ Te hnolo!y* Tourism and /ene#able 7ner!y. The !rou"s ame u" #ith a #ealth of ideas and "ossibilities that #ere then fed ba k to the rest of the "arti i"ants. After the event #e ollated the information that had ome in from the day and "airs of students sele ted different sub5e t areas. - su""lied a lot of readin! material for ba k!round resear h* and the students did a lot of internet resear h for useful ideas and e%am"les from around the #orld. The final result #as =insale 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan - <ersion >* '((B .=7DA+0* #hi h attem"ted a year-by-year "lan for the to#n. 7a h se tion of the re"ort be!ins #ith a se tion alled The +resent. This attem"ts to su in tly summarise #hat is the "roblem no#* in '((B* #ith re!ards to the sub5e t in Huestion. The +resent is follo#ed by The <ision* #hi h is #ritten in su h a #ay as to !ive the reader an idea of ho# =insale ould be* if all the re ommendations u" to that "oint had been im"lemented. This is then follo#ed by a list of su!!estions and re ommendations* in hronolo!i al order. These are meant to be ambitious but also a hievable* !iven a !ood deal of ommitment and su""ort. 7a h se tion is then rounded off #ith a olle tion of resour es and internet links. - then edited and desi!ned the =7DA+ and B(( o"ies #ere "rinted in time for the Fuellin! the Future onferen e run in =insale in :une '((B. This onferen e featured* amon! others* /i hard Heinber!* David Holm!ren and Colin Cam"bell. -t #as a memorable and im"a tful t#o-day onferen e #hi h e%"lored ommunity res"onses to "eak oil. At the time - don1t really think #e had !ras"ed the si!nifi an e of #hat #e had reated. The =7DA+ #asn1t even formally laun hed at the onferen eK it #as 5ust made available to the dele!ates on a table at the ba k of the marHuee. -t #asn1t mentioned in the lo al "ress for some months* and sli""ed out rather than a tually bein! laun hed. The o"ies sold steadily ho#ever* and fairly soon the only "la es it #as available #ere as a do#nload on the Fuellin! the Future #ebsite and at ###.transition ulture.or!. -t has sin e been do#nloaded many thousands of times* and has ins"ired many similar initiatives around the #orld.
:our lessons from the -insale Pro2ect

-n the months follo#in! the "ubli ation of the =7DA+* it be ame lear that #e had stumbled a ross somethin! im"ortant and "o#erful. +eo"le from all over the #orld !ot in tou h to say that it #as the missin! "ie e of the "u;;le* the thin! they had been lookin! for. As interest in it !re#* - started to muse on Transition ulture* about #hat lessons mi!ht be dis ernible from the "ro ess that ould inform similar "ro esses. The resultant insi!hts have done mu h to under"in the #ork subseHuently undertaken a ross the emer!in! Transition 6et#ork.
6esson ;ne: *void %Them and 's%

-t #ould have been easy to fall into the same tra" that so mu h am"ai!nin! and a tivism falls into of reatin! a sense us 1them and us1K "aintin! the lo al oun il as bein! the villains of the "ie e be ause they had failed* thus far* to be!in formulatin! res"onses to "eak oil* and indeed had done very little that ould be alled 1!reen1 at all. -t ould also have resorted to atta kin! the business ommunity for its un-!reen #ays* but instead it sou!ht to involve them. &embers of the Coun il and other stal#arts of the ommunity #ere invited to the ,"en S"a e day as #ell as to the 1Fuellin! the Future1 onferen e. &any of them #ere a""roa hed and asked for their vie#s* and the To#n Hall #as used to host the ,"en S"a e event* #ith the &ayor o"enin! the "ro eedin!s. The "ro5e t #as al#ays arried out in a s"irit of in lusion and o"enness. The +ra ti al Sustainability ourse attra ted* from the outset* a #ide ran!e of "eo"le* many of them from =insale itself* #ho hel"ed s"read the on e"ts around the to#n. The more - have been involved in this #ork and met "eo"le #orkin! in "ositions of authority* be they "lanners* en!ineers* oun illors and even "oliti ians* - have seen that they are ordinary "eo"le* often #ith families* 5ust as be#ildered by the turn of events as everybody else. For us to s ream J#hy aren1t they doin! anythin!8J does nothin! to hel".
6esson Two: Create a sense that something is happening

From its be!innin!* the +ra ti al Sustainability ourse develo"ed a re"utation in the to#n for bein! a "la e #here unusual yet fas inatin! thin!s #ere o urrin!. +eo"le often ommented to me that they loved the 1bu;;1 around the to#n reated by it. The various buildin! "ro5e ts that took "la e at the olle!e #ere !reeted #ith !reat interest* indeed sometimes students #ould s"end the mornin! ob buildin! or lay "lasterin!* and then head do#n to the to#n for some lun h* leadin! to their bein! fondly referred to in the to#n as the 1&ud +eo"le1. $e also had an annual ,"en Day #here visitors #ould eat "i;;a from the lay "i;;a oven built by the students* salad from the "olytunnel* have !uided tours and !enerally soak u" the atmos"here. The am"hitheatre "ro5e t at the Colle!e #hi h #as om"leted in &ay '((B did a !reat deal to "ut the Colle!e on the ma". &any #ho attended the "erforman es of 1The &erry $ives of $indsor1 "ut on by the Colle!e1s drama students* talked about the 1ma!i al1 feelin! of the
s"a e. The Colle!e1s ombination of interestin! ourses and !round-breakin! "ra ti al "ro5e ts did mu h to make the ommunity #ell dis"osed to the A tion +lan "ro ess #hen it be!an. $hen it ame to develo"in! the +lan itself* "eo"le #ere deli!hted to have in"ut into it* and the re"utation that had been built u" for #ork that #as e% itin! and done #ith !ood heart #ent before it. Creatin! this sense that somethin! is ha""enin! ould also be done by sta!in! an u"liftin! and hi!h-"rofile onferen e* as #as done in =insale #ith 1Fuellin! the Future1. An event su h as this* if desi!ned #ith lots of outrea h elements* and also involvin! lo al "eo"le #ith relevant skills and kno#led!e* an really embed the "ro ess in the to#n* brin!in! in ne# information and ins"iration* #hile at the same time reinfor in! and reaffirmin! the #ork that others have already been doin!. Another #ay of reatin! su h a 1bu;;1 is throu!h develo"in! a re"utation for addressin! on erns that are seen as im"ortant more #idely than "eak oil. For instan e some of the ourse1s students or!anised a lean-u" of a lo al nature area #hi h #as re"orted in the lo al "ress. Some others desi!ned and "lanted a "erma ulture !arden for a lo al hostel. ,ne of my favourite e%am"les of this is the City /e"air or!anisation in ,re!on in the ES* #ho run a festival every year alled the <illa!e Buildin! Conver!en e* buildin! ob bus shelters* ommunity !ardens and #hat they all Jinterse tion re"airJ. They reate a #onderful sense of innovation and "ositive thin!s ha""enin!. $e need to ommuni ate that this 1somethin!1 is "rofoundly meanin!ful and transformative* and has a sense of ma!i and a s"ark of #onder to it. Creatin! this atmos"here is the oil that lubri ates the en!ine of your ener!y des ent "ro ess. The more you an reate a feelin! that somethin! im"ortant* "ositive and dynami is under#ay* the less fri tion and resistan e your #ork #ill en ounter.
6esson Three: Create a vision of an abundant future

,ne of the essential in!redients in develo"in! ommunity res"onses to "eak oil is enablin! the ommunity to reate a vision of ho# the future ould be. $e move from #orkin! #ith "eak oil* #hi h is about "robabilities .ho# "robable is it that it #ill be horrendous* ho# "robable is oil "eak in '((D* and so on0 to "ossibilities. The shift is subtle but illuminatin!. The ,"en S"a e event #e ran in =insale !ave the ommunity "ermission to dream. -t #as very "o#erful to see it ha""enin!* "eo"le !oin! home e% ited about ho# the future ould be* and feelin! they had met some kindred souls #ith #hom they ould reate a future. -t is im"ortant that "eo"le an see #here they are !oin! and that they like #hat they see. -f #e "resent "eo"le #ith a vision of disaster and so ial olla"se* #hat in entive do they have to do anythin!8 This is not to say that #e should not aim to raise a#areness and talk about the issues* but at the same time* sim"ly "resentin! "eo"le #ith bad ne#s and e%"e tin! them to res"ond by en!a!in! boldly and ima!inatively is unrealisti in the e%treme. =en :ones* the Buddhist author* #rites of 1 han!in! the limate* rather than #innin! the ar!ument1.
6esson :our: 5esign in fle/ibility

The Australian "erma ulture tea her Dave Clark s"eaks of his e%"erien es im"lementin! "erma ulture in refu!ee am"s in &a edonia. He #as dealin! #ith lar!e numbers of "eo"le movin! to "la es #ith no infrastru ture* all of #hi h had to be reated. He did ama;in! #ork* ere tin! stra#bale buildin!s* food !ardens* "uttin! in miles of s#ales and hundreds of thousands of trees. ,ne thin! he said really stayed #ith me. He s"oke of havin! to #ork #ith "rofessional en!ineers #ho #ould desi!n somethin! su h as a draina!e system* #hi h Dave ould see #ouldn1t #ork* but #hi h* be ause the "erson #as a 1"rofessional1 ould not be Huestioned. He sa# mu h money #asted throu!h this un hallen!eable 1rule1 that the "rofessional is al#ays ri!ht. He talked about ho# in his #ork he al#ays #orked from the "remise that he #as #ron!. Desi!nin! this a""roa h into the "ro ess led to an o"enness to reassessin! at any sta!e. - ame to think that an 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan should be like this. -t ou!ht not be ast in stone* rather be a olle tion of ideas that is re#orked and revised re!ularly. The ori!inal idea in =insale #as for an annual revision* #ith ea h ne# u"date ontainin! ne#s of #hat had been a hieved sin e the last one. From the e%"erien e of those no# drivin! for#ard the =insale "ro ess* this has "roved to be too onerous a task on to" of a tually im"lementin! the "lan - #hi h is* after all* the main "oint. The "rin i"le still a""lies thou!h* that on e the first "lan is done* it is taken out into the ommunity and 1tested1 throu!h a series of s"e ifi ,"en S"a e events. The #orst- ase s enario is #hat ha""ens #ith some other 1"lans1. They be ome* like the #ork of the en!ineer referred to above* arved in stone* immutable and fi%ed. J$e are #orkin! our #ay throu!h the "lanJ* even thou!h that "lan may be lon! sin e irrelevant or based on assum"tions that have lon! been su"erseded by events. By desi!nin! this fle%ibility into the "ro ess* #e an make it infinitely more "o#erful* and !ive the ommunity a far stron!er sense of o#nershi" and involvement.
3eflections on the -insale process

The =7DA+ arose from a "ro!ramme of ommunity think-tanks* a#areness-raisin!* the #ork of the students and the in"uts of various "eo"le in the area #ith ideas to offer. -t is useful to #onder #hat mi!ht #e have done differently* and indeed* #hether it has made any differen e. Firstly* some refle tions on ho# it mi!ht have been done differently. The "ro ess #as not really as embedded in the ommunity as it ould have been - ertainly nothin! om"ared to the s ale of the subseHuent #ork in Totnes* Le#es* Stroud and the other emer!in! Transition -nitiatives. -t #as "rin i"ally my initiative and on e"t .#ith the su""ort and ins"iration of an assortment of others0* and des"ite many of the students havin! been involved* #hen - left at the end of term to move to Totnes* no obvious su""ort stru ture #as in "la e to enable a ontinuation of the "ro ess. The team #ho had driven it for#ard #ere mostly not from =insale* and there #as no ommunity !rou" in "la e to arry it for#ard. Had it not been for Louise /ooney and Catherine Dunne .both former students0* #ho formed
Transition Desi!n* ontinuin! to drive it alon!* it ould have disa""eared #ithout tra e. From this - learned that it is essential to root the "ro ess in the ommunity. - an ho#ever e% use the a""roa h used in =insale* in that the A tion +lan is* in effe t* a su!!estion for further a tion* and on e finished #as offered to the ommunity to take and develo" in #hatever #ay they felt most a""ro"riate. Basi ally the lesson here is that the "ro ess needs an in-built resilien e* so that one "erson an dro" out #ithout affe tin! the "ro5e t* somethin! that has been better addressed in subseHuent Transition -nitiatives.
0nsufficient awareness-raising
$hat #ould have been ideal #ould have been to have trained students u" at an early sta!e to run "eak oil a#areness #orksho"s in s hools* youth lubs* !ardenin! lubs - to anyone #ho #ould listen. The reason #e didn1t do this in =insale #as onstraints of time. To start #ith* #e didn1t kno# #hat the "ro ess #e #ere develo"in! #as !oin! to look like* and #ere still omin! to !ri"s even #ith #hat ener!y des ent #ould mean in "ra ti al terms ourselves. 6o#* in the Totnes "ro ess* #e run the Skillin! E" for +o#erdo#n evenin! lass* to better eHui" "eo"le to be able to do this. This also makes the on e"t better embedded in the ommunity. The "roblem #ith =insale #as that - didn1t live there* so - didn1t kno# all the !rou"s and net#orks* somethin! su h a trainin! ourse may #ell have !ot round.
What%s happening now in -insale1

-s =insale no# an -rish oastal uto"ia* all lo al food and "ushbikes8 6o. Has the =insale 7ner!y Des ent +lan been ri!orously im"lemented ste"-by-ste"8 6o. -t has ho#ever* been the tri!!er for lots of a tion and a tivities. -nitially the "ro ess #as driven alon! by Louise /ooney su""orted by Catherine Dunne under the banner Transition To#n =insale .TT=0* and after a #hile a ommittee #as set u" #hi h in ludes* amon! others* a member of the To#n Coun il. TT= has monthly "ubli meetin!s and "ublishes re!ular u"dates in the lo al ommunity ne#sletter under the headin! 1Transition Times1. They have also2
run a number of film s reenin!s and talks* as #ell as a one-day #orksho" #ith Brian $eller from $illits* a to#n in California s"earheadin! innovative strate!ies for e onomi relo alisation been a#arded some !rant fundin! for a ommunity !arden "ro5e t* be!un develo"in! a model "erma ulture !arden on a lo al Coun il estate set u" a ommunity om"ostin! s heme on another housin! estate #ithin the to#n or!anised a fundraiser for TT= at the Further 7du ation Colle!e #hi h !enerated over >*((( euros* #ith food* talks* films* and on erts in the am"hitheatre "re"ared a bro hure about #hat they are doin! .to be distributed to every house in the to#n0* and one member has "rodu ed an edited version of the =7DA+* to make it more available and a essible run a number of #orksho"s #ith lo al s hools settin! u" ve!etable !ardens and
"lantin! fruit bushes. There are no# five sub!rou"s meetin! re!ularly2 Food* 7ner!y* Trans"ort* 7vents* and $aste. $hen - asked Coun illor -sabelle Sutton* a member of TT=* for her thou!hts on ho# the "ro ess had !one and #hether the 7DA+ had been a useful thin! or not she re"lied* J-t has been a hu!e hel"K #e #ouldn1t be #here #e are no# #ithout it. $e are al#ays referrin! to it for the ne%t thin! to do.J ,ne hindran e to the =insale "ro ess* and "erha"s the key reason #hy it hasn1t "ro!ressed further* is that* in terms of the t#elve ste"s for a Transition -nitiative "ro ess set out in +art Three .see "a!e >A)0* =insale started strai!ht a#ay at number t#elve* #ithout the "re edin! eleven. This in effe t meant that the "ro ess #asn1t really !rounded in a stron! ommunity a#areness* didn1t have the momentum behind it that an Enleashin! !enerates* didn1t emer!e from lo al !rou"s* #as only based on one !eneral ,"en S"a e Day* and had done no #ork #ith the older members of the ommunity. There #ere* via the +erma ulture ourse at the Colle!e* a !ood fe# visible* "ra ti al manifestations in "la e* and the Great /eskillin! on e"t #as understood and "ursued* but both of these #ere* at that "oint* Huite limited to the Colle!e !rounds. Be ause of this* TT= really had to !o ba k to sHuare one* startin! the "ro ess from s rat h #ith the =7DA+ to refer to as a !uide* but not as a "lan of a tion endorsed by the ommunity. Ho#ever* as #e have seen* u" to no# at least its im"a ts have been felt far more keenly beyond =insale than they have been in the to#n itself. $hat emer!ed from the #ork in =insale #as an idea* a model* and a sense that* as /i hard Heinber! "ut it in his Fore#ord to this book* a su essful res"onse to "eak oil and limate han!e looks Jmore like a "arty than a "rotest mar hJ.
#umming up Part
At one of Transition To#n Totnes1s ,"en S"a e Days in late '((C* a #oman said to me* J$hen - think of #hat TTT is doin! - feel so full of ho"e - ould ry.J This ha"ter has ar!ued that ho"e is one of the key emotions #e need to nurture and sustain in order to navi!ate the troubled #aters ahead* and it has been somethin! that environmental am"ai!ns until no# have stru!!led to !enerate. $e sa# in this ha"ter the different #ays in #hi h an a#areness of "eak oil an affe t "eo"le in the varied manifestations of 1+ost-"etroleum stress disorder1. $e also sa# ho# im"ortant the reation of visions of a lo#er ener!y future is* and e%"lored some tools* su h as storytellin!* that an be used to hel" reate them. Sometimes "eo"le an be dismissive of the in lusion of insi!hts from addi tions treatment or the addressin! of the distress that immersion in "eak oil and limate han!e a#areness an brin! about* seein! them as 1tou hy-feely1 stuff* or as someho# not "ra ti al or relevant to a tual a tivism. - #ould hallen!e this. - think it is naive to e%"e t that #e ould !ive someone a D<D of The End of #uburbia or %n .nconvenient Truth* #hi h they #ould then !o home and #at h on their o#n* in a darkened house* and e%"e t them to be unaltered by the e%"erien e.
-f findin! out about "eak oil and really takin! on the im"li ations of limate han!e #ere distressin! for me* it #ould be reasonable to assume that they mi!ht be similarly so for other "eo"le too. $e see it as entirely reasonable that someone #ho has !one throu!h a distressin! event in their life mi!ht re eive ounsellin! after#ards* but is it not lo!i al to think that it mi!ht be advisable* !iven the s ale of han!e our ommunities are about to under!o olle tively* that #e mi!ht be!in to e%"lore no# ho# to* in effe t* ounsel them throu!h su h a transition* and all that it #ill entail2 in effe t "re-trauma ounsellin!* rather than "ost-trauma. feel that addin! this dimension to the #ork of Transition -nitiatives an only stren!then them* and the insi!hts from the a""li ation of tools like the F/A&7S model o"en u" the "ossibility of a #hole ne# #ay of thinkin! about en!a!in! ommunities in this #ork. Finally* this ha"ter also e%"lored the first attem"t at reatin! a ommunity-s ale vision by students at =insale Further 7du ation Colle!e in early '((B. Althou!h at the time no-one involved really a""re iated the si!nifi an e of #hat had been reated* it has sin e be ome the foundation and the ins"iration for the ra"idly !ro#in! Transition movement. Sometimes an idea a""ears #hi h is the ri!ht idea at the ri!ht time* and the =insale 7DA+ is one su h idea. Sin e its "ubli ation the idea has evolved and e%"anded* and be ome in reasin!ly dynami . At its heart thou!h is the ore messa!e that also under"ins the =insale "lan* that alon!side the desire for han!e* #e need to reate a vision of #here #e #ant to !o. The =insale 7DA+ o"ened #ith the follo#in! Huote by :oel Barker2 J<ision #ithout a tion is merely a dreamK a tion #ithout vision 5ust "asses the timeK vision #ith a tion an han!e the #orld.J
Part !: The Hands - .oving from ideas to action: e/ploring the Transition model for inspiring local resilience-building
'The time is right to loo0 at what it would mean for the U, over the period of fifteen to twenty years to create a post+oil economy + a declaration less of (oil independence( and more the end of oil dependence$' - David &iliband* E= Forei!n Se retary '.nnovation re-uires a good idea, initiative, and a few friends$' - Herb She"ard 'Let the ideas arise from the community and remain under community control$ The 2ob of the 3ouncil is to facilitate, to listen, possibly to provide advice, contacts or funds and, most important, to ensure that bureaucracy does not get in the way of grassroots initiatives$' - a lo al oun illor in onta t #ith the Transition 6et#ork Clearly* !iven the s ale of the omin! han!es outlined above* the idea that #e an navi!ate a safe #ay throu!h merely by han!in! our li!ht bulbs and turnin! the heatin! do#n a bit is om"letely insuffi ient. -n +art Three* 1The Hands1* #e #ill look at ho# #e an be!in* #ith the ommunity around us* to move to#ards a "ost-oil #orld that is a tually "referable to the "resent. $e stand* "otentially* on the us" of many thin!s* one of #hi h is an un"re edented
e onomi * ultural and so ial renaissan e. The model - have been involved in develo"in! is the Transition model* #hi h is a "ositive* solutions-fo used #ay of !atherin! those around you to!ether to start e%"lorin! ommunity-s ale res"onses to "eak oil and limate han!e. $hen #e laun hed the E=1s first Transition initiative* Transition To#n Totnes* in Se"tember '((C* #e talked fli""antly about the idea 1!oin! viral1. 6o#* ei!hteen months later* it has. The Transition movement has ra"idly be ome one of the fastest-!ro#in! ommunity-s ale initiatives in the #orld. -n this "art of the book* - #ill attem"t to define #hat a Transition -nitiative is* as #ell as "resent the T#elve Ste"s of Transition* the essential in!redients of the early "art of a Transition "ro ess #hi h should "rovide #hat you need to !et started. The idea is that by the end of +art Three you #ill be fully eHui""ed to start this "ro ess #here you live. The essential messa!e of this "art of the book is that #e annot do this as individuals* and that both limate han!e and "eak oil have to under"in both our thinkin! and our de ision makin!. $e need to think bi!!er* #e need to #ork to!ether #ith other "eo"le and #e need very mu h to a elerate our efforts.
Chapter 1+: The Transition concept

Transition 0nitiatives
So #hat a tually is a 1Transition -nitiative18 The initial term used to des ribe this on e"t #as 1Transition To#ns1* but this has sin e be ome lar!ely irrelevant* !iven that #e are no# talkin! about Transition ities* borou!hs* valleys* "eninsulas* "ost odes* villa!es* hamlets and islands . . . So althou!h none of these alliterates Huite as ni ely as Transition To#ns* Transition -nitiatives seems to be the best overall term. Transition -nitiatives are an emer!in! and evolvin! a""roa h to ommunity-level sustainability* #hi h is startin! to a""ear in ommunities u" and do#n the ountry. They are* to use a term oined by :eremy Le!!ett* Js alable mi ro osms of ho"eJ. The idea be!an* as #e have seen in Cha"ter I* #ith the =insale 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan in -reland* and has sin e s"read to ommunities around the E= and beyond. Transition -nitiatives are based on four key assum"tions2 >. That life #ith dramati ally lo#er ener!y onsum"tion is inevitable* and that it1s better to "lan for it than to be taken by sur"rise. '. That our settlements and ommunities "resently la k the resilien e to enable them to #eather the severe ener!y sho ks that #ill a om"any "eak oil. @. That #e have to a t olle tively* and #e have to a t no#. A. That by unleashin! the olle tive !enius of those around us to reatively and "roa tively desi!n our ener!y des ent* #e an build #ays of livin! that are more onne ted* more enri hin! and that re o!nise the biolo!i al limits of our "lanet. The future #ith less oil ould* if enou!h thinkin! and desi!n is a""lied suffi iently in advan e* be "referable to the "resent. There is no reason #hy a lo#er-ener!y* more resilient future
needs to have a lo#er Huality of life than the "resent. -ndeed* a future #ith a revitalised lo al e onomy #ould have many advanta!es over the "resent* in ludin! a ha""ier and less stressed "o"ulation* an im"roved environment and in reased stability. -n fa t some a#areness of this is startin! to a""ear at !overnment level* in Australia at least. Andre# & 6amara* ?ueensland1s &inister for Sustainability* Climate Chan!e and -nnovation re ently said2 JThere1s no Huestion #hatsoever that ommunity-driven lo al solutions #ill be essential. That1s #here !overnment #ill ertainly have a role to "lay in assistin! and en oura!in! lo al net#orks* #ho an assist #ith lo al su""lies of food and fuel and #ater and 5obs and the thin!s #e need from sho"s. . . . $e #ill see a relo alisation of the #ay in #hi h #e live that #ill remind us not of last entury* but the one before that. And that1s not a bad thin!. Endoubtedly one of the hea"er res"onses that #ill be very effe tive is "romotin! lo al onsum"tion* lo al "rodu tion* lo al distribution. And there are "ositive s"inoffs to that in terms of !ettin! to kno# our ommunities better. There are human and ommunity benefits from lo al net#orks that - look for#ard to seein! !ro#.J Ho# this is e%"lored and develo"ed in "ra ti e #ill be different in ea h settlement2 rather than offerin! "res ri"tive solutions* Transition -nitiatives aim to a t as atalysts for a ommunity to e%"lore and ome u" #ith its o#n ans#ers. They fo us the olle tive mind on the "ra ti alities of ener!y des ent* #hi h* as #e sa# in +art ,ne* an in reasin! number of ommentators ar!ue #ill be the inevitable out ome of both "eak oil and limate han!e. Transition -nitiatives aim to reate ommunities that are resilientK that is* more able to #ithstand sho ks from outside .a on e"t e%"lored in Cha"ter @0* be they from limate han!e* "roblems of ener!y se urity* or risin! fuel "ri es. /ather than bein! 5ust an intelle tual e%er ise* they e%"lore the "ra ti alities of the ons ious relo alisation of a settlementK to "ara"hrase David Holm!ren .talkin! about "erma ulture* but the same is true in this onte%t0* Transition -nitiatives are 1the #holehearted and "ositive a e"tan e of ener!y des ent* as not only inevitable but as a desired reality1. Given that oil and !as are de"letin! resour es* and that #e ur!ently need e%treme uts in C,' emissions* even to the e%tent that our daily lives seHuester more arbon than they "rodu e* Transition -nitiatives ask #hat #ould su h a #orld a tually look like8 Ho# #ould #e live8 $here #ould our food ome from8 $hat #ould #e hear #hen #e o"ened the #indo# in the mornin!8 The Transition "ro ess offers a "ositive* solutions-fo used a""roa h that dra#s to!ether the various elements of a ommunity to address this ommon hallen!e and sees mu h of the solution as omin! from #ithin* throu!h a "ro ess of unlo kin! #hat is already there* rather than from e%"erts and onsultants omin! in from the outside. -n Fi!ure >) on "a!e >@B - attem"t to distin!uish ho# the Transition a""roa h differs from more onventional a""roa hes to environmentalism* havin! "ut resilien e-buildin! as one of its key ob5e tives. - a""re iate that in my 1Conventional 7nvironmentalism1 olumn - have* to an e%tent* set u" a stra# horse* so !eneralised that it ver!es on a stereoty"e* but - think this "ro ess is an im"ortant one* essential in distin!uishin! the distin tive !round that the Transition a""roa h stands on.
The philosophical underpinnings

,ne of the "rin i"al foundations of the Transition on e"t is "erma ulture. +erma ulture is somethin! notoriously diffi ult to e%"lain in a sin!le senten e2 it resists an off-the- uff definition that #ould enable an a urate mental "i ture to be formed. -n essen e* it is a desi!n system for the reation of sustainable human settlements. $hen desi!nin! the transition that our settlements and ommunities #ill inevitably have to undertake* #e need a desi!n tem"late #ith #hi h #e an su essfully assemble its various om"onents - so ial* e onomi * ultural and te hni al - in the most effi ient #ay "ossible. +erma ulture an be thou!ht of as the desi!n 1!lue1 and the ethi al foundations #e use to under"in Transition #ork* to sti k to!ether all the elements of a "ost-"eak settlement. The reason that "eo"le #ith a "erma ulture ba k!round tend to 1!et1 the Transition on e"t ahead of most other "eo"le is that it is based on "erma ulture desi!n "rin i"les. - have s"ent the last ten years tea hin! "erma ulture* and its ethi s and "rin i"les very mu h under"in my thinkin!. +erma ulture #as ori!inally on eived in the >ID(s at the time of the first oil rises* as bein! a 1+ermanent A!ri ulture1* movin! a#ay from annual ro""in! and mono ulture in a!ri ulture to multi-layered systems makin! use of "rodu tive and useful trees and "erennial "lants. -ts fo us on a!ri ultural systems soon broadened* as it be ame lear that sustainability in food annot ha""en in isolation from the ran!e of other elements that make u" so iety e onomi s* buildin!* ener!y and so on. The term 1"erma ulture1 be ame seen as a ontra tion of 1"ermanent ulture1* bein! about the reation of a ulture of "ermanen e. -ts most thorou!h early e%"osition* Bill &ollison1s +erma ulture2 a Desi!ner1s &anual* #as* in effe t* a manual for 7arth re"air* an astonishin!ly broad* ambitious* en y lo"aedi #ork #hi h offered the reader a toolkit for 7arth restoration. ,ver the ne%t fifteen years "erma ulture* at least in the mainstream "sy he .des"ite !ro#in! massively and ins"irin! and under"innin! thousands of "ro5e ts around the #orld0* be ame "er eived by many as an odd form of !ardenin! usin! ar tyres and obs ure "lants #hi h "robably no one #ould #ant to sit do#n to for su""er. -n '((A* David Holm!ren* the o-ori!inator of the on e"t* "ublished +erma ulture2 +rin i"les and +ath#ays Beyond Sustainability* #hi h "ut "erma ulture ba k on the ma" as a radi al desi!n s ien e* and redefined the "rin i"les of "erma ulture as the "rin i"les that #ill be needed to under"in a "ost-"eak #orld. $hen - en ountered "eak oil* my first res"onse #as instin tively to utilise "erma ulture "rin i"les #hen formulatin! a res"onse. -t stru k me that the movement - #as so fond of and a "art of #as still at su h a small "oint in its develo"ment in terms of its "rominen e in national a#areness* and the need for its insi!hts in informin! a massive-s ale so ial transformation* that #e needed to really ram" thin!s u" hu!ely. - be!an to #onder #hy that #as. Then - ame a ross an e% ellent and insi!htful arti le by 7ri Ste#art* in #hi h he #rote2 J-t seems to me that "erma ulture houses t#o virtually "olar im"ulses2 one involves removal from lar!er so ietyK the other involves #orkin! for the transformation of so iety. $hile the ase an be made that removal from the lar!er so iety re"resents a tion that is transformative of so iety* - believe that there is an imbalan e #ithin the ultural manifestation of "erma ulture that has favoured isolation over intera tion. The ultural shift #e need
de"ends on in reasin! intera tion to in rease the availability of the resour es "erma ulture offers.J This hit the nail on the head for me. +erma ulture is a movement #hi h offers* as redefined by Holm!ren* the desi!n system and "hiloso"hi al under"innin! of a "ost-"eak so iety* yet at the same time* a ordin! to Ste#art* it is often !uilty of maintainin! a distan e from that so iety. +eak oil* to me* is a all to the bod!ers and hairmakers in the #oods* the market !ardeners and or hardists u" misty rural lanes* the small-s ale #ind installers on the #inds#e"t hi!hlands* to brin! all the #onderful skills they have a umulated* the insi!hts they have obtained throu!h years of "ra ti e and ontem"lation* ba k to #here the mass of the "o"ulation is startin! to realise thin!s are not ri!ht. -t is a all to learn ne# #ays of ommuni atin! #ith the mainstream* and #ith an ethi of servi e* to seek to en!a!e #ith others on an un"re edented s ale. The Transition a""roa h is* - ho"e* one in #hi h "erma ulture "rin i"les are im"li it* not e%"li it. -t is my attem"t to !et round the fa t that "erma ulture is a on e"t that is very hard to e%"lain to the "erson in the "ub #ho asks you #hat it means* if you don1t have a fli"- hart and "ens and fifteen minutes in #hi h to dra# "i tures of hi kens and "onds and !reenhouses. +erma ulture "rin i"les under"in this a""roa h* #hi h is desi!ned to mainstream its on e"ts* "resentin! them as fundamental to any res"onse to ener!y des ent. 4et someho# the on e"t of Transition is easier to e%"lain* allo#in! more time for other onversations. So* if you have a ba k!round in "erma ulture* and some of this feels familiar* that1s #hy.
#i/ principles that underpin the Transition model

There are si% "rin i"les that - feel define #hat is distin tive about the Transition on e"t. They have emer!ed from observin! the "ro ess as it has unfolded* and* - think* neatly sum u" #hat is uniHue to this evolvin! a""roa h.
@isioning
The on e"t of visionin! #as e%"lored in de"th in Cha"ter D. -n the onte%t of these si% "rin i"les* visionin! refers to the fa t that the Transition a""roa h has* as a fundamental "rin i"le* the belief that #e an only move to#ards somethin! if #e an ima!ine #hat it #ill be like #hen #e !et there. The vision #e have in our mind #hen #e set out on this #ork #ill !o a lon! #ay to#ards determinin! #here #e #ill end u". Are #e #orkin! to#ards Holm!ren1s 1Te hno 7%"losion1 .see ".AC0* or "erha"s somethin! more realisti and desirable8 Creatin! a lear and enti in! vision of our desired out ome is a key "rin i"le of the Transition "ro ess.
0nclusion
The s ale of the hallen!e of "eak oil and limate han!e annot be addressed if #e hoose
to stay #ithin our omfort ;ones* if 1!reen1 "eo"le only talk to other 1!reen1 "eo"le* business "eo"le only talk to other business "eo"le* and so on. The Transition a""roa h seeks to fa ilitate a de!ree of dialo!ue and in lusion that has rarely been a hieved before* and has be!un to develo" some innovative #ays of brin!in! this about. This is seen as one of the key "rin i"les sim"ly be ause #ithout it #e have no han e of su ess.
*wareness-raising
The end of the ,il A!e is a onfusin! time. $e are onstantly e%"osed to be#ilderin! mi%ed messa!es. The media "resents us #ith headlines su h as JStee" de line in oil "rodu tion brin!s risk of #ar and unrest* says ne# studyJ* and JCarbon out"ut risin! faster than fore ast* says studyJ yet at the same time advertisin! "uts a ross the onfli tin! messa!e that business as usual is the only #ay for#ard* that !lobalisation is the only model that an feed the #orld* and that 5ust buyin! this ne%t thin! #ill make us ha""y. -ndeed the ontrast an sometimes be strikin!* #ith an arti le about the meltin! of Ar ti i e-sheets ne%t to an advert for a ne# ar or hea" fli!hts. The media to #hi h #e are in reasin!ly e%"osed ontinually !ive out double messa!es* #hi h an leave one feelin! "er"le%ed. Sometimes ne# Transition -nitiatives feel that they don1t need to do mu h a#areness-raisin! be ause everyone must be a#are of these issues by no#* but it is essential to start #ith the assum"tion that "eo"le don1t kno# anythin! about these issues. $e need to assume no "rior kno#led!e* and set out the ase as learly* a essibly and entertainin!ly as "ossible* !ivin! "eo"le the key ar!uments in order to let them formulate their o#n res"onses.
3esilience
-n Cha"ter @ #e e%"lored the on e"t of resilien e* but it is useful to restate at this "oint that the rebuildin! of resilien e is* alon!side the need to move ra"idly to a ;ero arbon so iety* entral to the Transition on e"t. -ndeed* to do one #ithout the other #ill fail to address either hallen!e.
Psychological insights
-nsi!hts from "sy holo!y are also key to the Transition model. -t is understood that amon! the key barriers to en!a!ement are the sense of "o#erlessness* isolation and over#helm that environmental issues an often !enerate. These do not leave "eo"le in a "la e from #hi h they an !enerate a tion* either as an individual or as a ommunity. The Transition model uses these insi!hts firstly throu!h the reation of a "ositive vision .see +rin i"le >* ".>A>0* se ondly by reatin! safe s"a es #here "eo"le an talk* di!est and feel ho# these issues affe t them* and thirdly by affirmin! the ste"s and a tions that "eo"le have taken* and by desi!nin! into the "ro ess as many o""ortunities to elebrate su esses as "ossible. This omin! to!ether - the sense of not bein! the only "erson out there #ho is a#are of "eak oil
and limate han!e and #ho finds it s ary - is very "o#erful. -t enables "eo"le to feel "art of a olle tive res"onse* that they are "art of somethin! lar!er than themselves.
Credible and appropriate solutions

-n the film $ay to Go2 Life at the 7nd of 7m"ire* Tim Bennett talks about #hat he alls the 1ha""y ha"ter1 at the end of most environmental books* #hi h s"end nine ha"ters tellin! you ho# dreadful everythin! is* and one on the end #ith a fe# token solutions. Similarly* have heard many a talk #here the s"eaker has set out the s ale of the limate hallen!e* and at the end has one slide about turnin! do#n our thermostats and han!in! our li!ht bulbs. -t is im"ortant that Transition -nitiatives* havin! laid out the "eak oil and limate han!e ar!uments* enable "eo"le to e%"lore solutions of a redible s ale. ,ne of the reasons behind #hat #e mi!ht all the 1li!ht-bulb syndrome1 is that "eo"le are often only able to on eive t#o s ales of res"onseK individuals doin! thin!s in their o#n homes* or the !overnment a tin! on a national s ale. The Transition model e%"lores the !round bet#een these t#o2 #hat ould be a hieved at a ommunity level.
The Pro2ect #upport Pro2ect concept

,ne of the thin!s that distin!uishes the Transition a""roa h is the on e"t of the +ro5e t Su""ort +ro5e t .+S+0. -deally* #e need Transition -nitiatives to be self-or!anisin!* and able to harness the "assion and enthusiasm that the "ro ess unleashes. $hilst lookin! around for su h models* - ha""ened by some onsiderable serendi"ity to meet #ith :ohn Croft of the Gaia Foundation of $estern Australia. A ou"le of months later he returned and ran a oneday trainin! ourse on his a""roa h for Transition To#n Totnes. Some of the tools he had develo"ed* in "arti ular the a""roa h he alls 1Dra!on Dreamin!1* an be found in A""endi% '* but the on e"t of most relevan e here is that of the +ro5e t Su""ort +ro5e t. The Gaia Foundation has atalysed and su""orted hundreds of "ro5e ts* and has done mu h #ork in develo"in! or!anisational models. -t is a small !rou" that has no one "erson at the entre* and that is founded on a set of shared "rin i"les. Any "ro5e t su""orted by the Foundation a!rees #ith the follo#in!2 >. -t involves the "ersonal !ro#th of those involved '. -t stren!thens and9or builds ommunity @. -t #orks in servi e of the 7arth. Any "ro5e ts that meet these riteria .Croft re ommends no more than si%0 an a""ly to be ome a Gaia Foundation "ro5e t. 7a h "ro5e t has its o#n bank a ount* makes its o#n de isions* and so on. -n essen e* the on e"t of a +S+ is that* rather than bein! an or!anisation that o-ordinates and drives a #ide ran!e of "ro5e ts itself* the aim is instead to reate an atmos"here #ithin #hi h "ro5e ts emer!e and then to su""ort them #hen they do. This means that the or!anisation an be mu h li!hter and more res"onsive and* in effe t* truly a t as the atalyst that these "ro5e ts are intended to be.
$ith Transition To#n Totnes* #e have made this a entral on e"t. $e see the role of TTT as an or!anisation to raise a#areness* to ontinuously raise the "rofile of the "ro5e t and its aims* to build interest in the on e"ts as a #hole* and to build enthusiasm for the Transition 1brand1. $e e%ist to ins"ire and motivate the initiation of "ro5e ts* and then to net#ork and nurture them on e they start. $ithin this model* one has to be areful that the inte!rity of the name is "reserved. -n order for someone to all a "ro5e t they are doin! a TTT "ro5e t* they need to submit an AA sheet outlinin! their "ro"osal. ,ne e%am"le is the Book and D<D /esour e "ro5e t* #here a #oman in Totnes de ided she #ould like to reate a olle tion of sustainability-related books and films* the books bein! available in the library and the D<Ds for free hire in the D<D sho". She had de ided that she #anted to do this* she asked for endorsement as a TTT "ro5e t* #hi h she !ot* and there are no# ]P>*B(( #orth of books in the library that other#ise #ouldn1t be there. ,ne of Croft1s su!!estions is that !rou"s ask themselves an im"ortant key ommitment Huestion. ,n e their "ro"osed "ro5e t has been effe tively #orked into a "lan* and the draft bud!et finalised the "lannin! !rou" onsiders this2 J-f this "ro5e t #ould not !et fundin! from else#here* #ould those involved be #illin! to arry the finan ial burden of any losses in urred by the "ro5e t8J The !rou" drivin! the se ond laun h of the Totnes +ound found this very useful* a real fo user of minds and !enerator of ommitment.
0ssues of scale
,ne of the Huestions #e are often asked is #hat is the ideal s ale for a Transition -nitiative. -n many #ays market to#ns* #hi h are on the s ale that many of the first Transition -nitiatives started* are the ideal s ale. They have a lear hinterland* histori ally defined by the villa!es and rural areas #hose inhabitants brou!ht their "rodu e to that to#n rather than to an ad5oinin! one. Similarly* islands are a !ood s ale to #ork on* as they have a learly defined boundary. $hy the on e"t of 1Transition To#ns1 felt so ri!ht at the be!innin! #as that the small to#n is a s ale #e an all innately relate to. &any "eo"le livin! in a lar!e ity rave the more identifiable s ale of a to#n* or in this onte%t* the nei!hbourhood. &any "eo"le feel that as !lobalisation has in reased* the s"here that #e are onne ted to and an a tually influen e has shrunk. +erha"s so fe# "eo"le vote no# be ause they have ome to feel that their vote makes no differen e. - have ome to think that the ideal s ale for a Transition -nitiative is one over #hi h you feel you an have an influen e. A to#n of B*((( "eo"le* for e%am"le* is one that you an relate toK it is one #ith #hi h you an be ome familiar. Havin! !ro#n u" in Bristol* - am a#are that most ities #ere* histori ally* a olle tion of villa!es* and still have that feel to them. This on e"t of #orkin! at a nei!hbourhood s ale is not a ne# one. Eltimately* you #ill !et a sense of #hat is the o"timal s ale for your initiative. -ndeed* you #ill "robably instin tively already have a sense of this. As you look around you* #hat feels like the o"timal s ale to be #orkin! on8 $here* instin tively* do you feel your s"here of influen e to be8 Transition Bristol* the first ity-s ale initiative* seeks to net#ork* ins"ire* train and enable* and to su""ort the emer!in! nei!hbourhood-s ale initiatives* Transition /edland* Transition $ithy#ood and so on* in their o#n Transition -nitiative.
There is no ma!i formula for the Huestion of s ale. 4our !rou" #ill need to follo# its instin ts* but don1t #orry about it - it #ill emer!e naturally. Do resist the tem"tation* #hi h has arisen for some* to try to start too bi!* thinkin! at the s ale of Transition 4orkshire* or Transition S otland. $hile useful as on e"ts* they are really "uttin! the art before the horse. $hile it may be the ase that at some "oint in the future the broad s"e trum of !rou"s in a !eo!ra"hi al area may re o!nise a need to net#ork themselves to ma%imise their effe tiveness* this needs to !ro# from a base of a net#ork of vibrant Transition ommunities* rather than be reated in advan e .you an see ho# the Transition 6et#ork en oura!es !rou"s at different s ales in A""endi% B* 1Ho# to be ome a Transition -nitiative10.
The interface between Transition 0nitiatives and local politics

The "o#er of the Transition "ro ess is its "otential to reate a truly ommunity-led "ro ess #hi h then interfa es #ith lo al "oliti s* but on its o#n terms. The role #e identify for Lo al Authorities in this "ro ess is to su""ort* not to drive it. Lo al A!enda '>* althou!h it reated many interestin! initiatives* #as in essen e a to"-do#n "ro ess tryin! to "retend that it #asn1t. -t is im"ortant that Transition -nitiatives o"erate inde"endently of in"ut from lo al "oliti ians* at least to be!in #ith. A Transition -nitiative ould not* by definition* be a "ro5e t on eived and driven for#ard by a Coun il* althou!h it is one #here the a tive and enthusiasti su""ort of lo al !overnment is invaluable. $hat has been ha""enin! in reasin!ly in re ent months is that the first onta t from a ommunity is from someone in the lo al oun il* be it Distri t* +arish or To#n Coun il. Sometimes a Coun il member #ill end u" as "art of the Steerin! Grou"* or the Coun il #ill offer their su""ort in a ran!e of #ays. -n the book +eak ,il +re"* &i k $inter ar!ues that one of the main roles of state !overnment in the ES .for #hi h read national !overnment for the E=0 is to Jstay out of the #ay of lo al !overnmentsJ. He #rites2 JThey kno# better than the state #hat they need. Give them #hatever they #ant. Fo us on "ro5e ts that serve re!ions . . . -f somethin! an be done at the lo al level* states should !ive ommunities #hat they need to make it ha""en - #ith no strin!s. -f there1s somethin! that an only be done at the state level* then that is the state1s res"onsibility.J -n the E= one an e%tend this model do#n another level* and say that the role of lo al !overnment is also to fa ilitate Transition "ro esses* not to lead or !uide them but to su""ort them. -n reasin!ly the Coun illors #ho !et in tou h do have an understandin! of this "ro ess* and are a tively seekin! to hel" fa ilitate it. ,ne Chairman of a To#n Coun il #ho onta ted the Transition 6et#ork #rote2 J$hilst - #ould see the Coun il bein! su""ortive to a Transition movement* one of the thin!s that - found most attra tive about Transition -nitiatives #as the !rass-roots ommunity involvement. -n my e%"erien e the very best model is the Coun il su""ortin! and en oura!in! the various ommunities* but mu h if not most of the initiative omin! from the various ommunity !rou"s. $e as oun illors need to be a#are that Transition -nitiatives are not somethin! that #e
besto# on the ommunityK it is not !oin! to be 5ust a bad!e or symbol for the Coun il* it is somethin! that #ill ha""en any#ay. Thou!h Coun il su""ort #ill hel" and assist the birth* the Coun il may also hel" the ideas to move into "arts of the ommunity that mi!ht other#ise not be rea hed.J $hen Transition -nitiatives do a""roa h their lo al or distri t oun il* they do so re"resentin! a si!nifi ant "art of the ommunity* and #ith a !rounds#ell of momentum behind them. -n =insale* on e the 7DA+ #as done* a motion endorsin! it #as submitted to =insale To#n Coun il and unanimously a""roved. -n Totnes* si% months after the ,ffi ial Enleashin!* the Coun il "assed a resolution endorsin! the #ork of Transition To#n Totnes .TTT0. This su""ort is very "o#erful in terms of bein! able to drive the initiative for#ard #ith enhan ed redibility* but should only be sou!ht on e the "ro5e t has an established tra k re ord and has for!ed its o#n identity. For many to#ns in the ES* su h as +ortland and ,akland* the "assin! by the lo al authority of a 1+eak ,il /esolution1 is seen as a key ste". This may be the ase* but my sense is that the im"ortant first ste"s are to en!a!e the ommunity in the a#areness-raisin! and buildin! the ener!y for the "ro5e t* rather than disa""earin! at an early sta!e into the be#ilderin! #orld of "oli y #ritin! and #orkin! at the lo al !overnment level. ,n e you have a hieved this* lo al !overnment #ill #ant to be "art of the "ro ess be ause they an see it as bein! #here the ener!y and innovative thinkin! is takin! "la e. -n terms of TTT1s intera tion #ith the lo al authority* one of the most im"ortant elements of this is its Liaison #ith Lo al Government Grou". This #as formed by a !rou" of "eo"le #ho had been involved for some time as lo al oun illors* or had sat on various bodies and understood ho# the "oliti al stru ture #orks. This !rou" !oes throu!h ea h ne# "ro!ramme of events that is omin! u" and invites the "ubli re"resentatives #ho they feel should be there. They also kee" an eye on u" omin! oun il onsultations. They are a entrally im"ortant "art of the TTT -nitiative. ,ne ould ar!ue that if at an early sta!e "rominent lo al "oliti al fi!ures #ant to !et involved* their role is to #ork #ith su h a !rou" to drive for#ard the #hole lar!er "ro ess.
Chapter 11: How to start a Transition 0nitiative

At this sta!e you mi!ht* ho"efully* be thinkin! that you #ould like to start a Transition -nitiative in your ommunity. 4ou mi!ht be lookin! around you and #onderin! #here to start* ho# on earth you mi!ht be able to even be!in "lannin! su h an -nitiative. Belo# - #ill introdu e the T#elve Ste"s of Transition* #hi h #ill ho"efully address your 1$here do #e start* and then #hat81 Huestions. Before that* thou!h* it is useful to address some of the Huestions that often arise for "eo"le at the early sta!e of "lannin! a Transition -nitiative* and #hi h may #ell "revent them from
"ro eedin! any further. - all these 1The Seven Buts1.
The #even %8uts%

A8'T B B B We%ve got no fundingA

This really is not an issue. Fundin! is a very "oor substitute for enthusiasm and ommunity involvement* both of #hi h #ill take you throu!h the first "hases of your transition. Funders an also demand a measure of ontrol* and may steer the -nitiative in dire tions that run ounter to ommunity interests and to your ori!inal vision. -t should be strai!htfor#ard for your -nitiative to !enerate an adeHuate amount of in ome. Transition To#n Totnes be!an in Se"tember '((B #ith no money at all* and has mostly been self-fundin! until re ently. The talks and film s reenin!s that #e run brin! in money to subsidise free events su h as ,"en S"a e Days. 4ou #ill rea h a "oint #here you have s"e ifi "ro5e ts that #ill reHuire fundin!* but until that "oint you1ll mana!e. /etain the "o#er over #hether your im"ortant -nitiative ha""ens* and don1t let la k of fundin! sto" you.
A8'T B B B They won%t let usA

There is a fear amon! some !reen folks that someho# any -nitiative that a tually su eeds in effe tin! any han!e #ill !et shut do#n* su""ressed* atta ked by fa eless bureau rats or or"orations. Transition -nitiatives o"erate 1belo# the radar1K as su h* they don1t in ur the #rath of any e%istin! institutions. ,n the ontrary* #ith or"orate a#areness of risin! ener!y "ri es and limate han!e buildin! daily* you #ill be sur"rised at ho# many "eo"le in "ositions of "o#er #ill be enthused and ins"ired by #hat you are doin!* and #ill su""ort* rather than hinder* your efforts. 4ou #ill find your Transition -nitiative is onstantly "ushin! on o"en doors. The unanimous endorsements of many Transition -nitiatives by their lo al oun ils is one e%am"le of this.
A8'T B B B There are already green groups in this town> and 0 don%t want to step on their toesA
$e1ll !o into this in more detail in Ste" @ ."a!e >B'0* but in essen e* you1d be e% eedin!ly unlu ky to en ounter any 1e o-turf #ars1. $hat your Transition -nitiative #ill do is form a ommon !oal and sense of "ur"ose for the e%istin! !rou"s* some of #hi h you mi!ht find are a bit burnt out and #ill really a""re iate the ne# vi!our you #ill brin!. Liaisin! #ith a net#ork of e%istin! !rou"s to#ards an 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan #ill enhan e and fo us their #ork* rather than re"li ate or su"ersede it. 7%"e t them to be ome your allies* ru ial to the su ess of your Transition "ro ess.
A8'T B B B Co one in this town cares about the environment anywayA

,ne ould easily be for!iven for thinkin! this* !iven the e%isten e of #hat #e mi!ht "er eive as an a"atheti onsumer ulture surroundin! us. S rat h a bit dee"er thou!h* and you1ll find that "eo"le are already "assionate about many as"e ts of #hat Transition -nitiatives #ill fo us on. The most sur"risin! of "eo"le are keen advo ates of key elements of a Transition -nitiative - lo al food* lo al rafts* lo al history and ulture. The key is to !o to them* rather than e%"e tin! them to ome to you. Seek out ommon !round* and you1ll find your ommunity to be a far more interestin! "la e than you thou!ht it #as.
A8'T B B B #urely it%s too late to do anything1A

-t may be too late* but the likelihood is that it isn1t. 4our .and others10 endeavours are absolutely ru ial. Don1t let ho"elessness sabota!e your efforts. -t is #ithin your "o#er to ma%imise the "ossibility that #e an !et throu!h this - don1t !ive that "o#er a#ay.
A8'T B B B 0 don%t have the right DualificationsA

-f you don1t do this* #ho else #ill8 -t matters not that you don1t have a +hD in sustainability* or years of e%"erien e in !ardenin! or "lannin!. $hat1s im"ortant is that you are about #here you live* that you see the need to a t* and that you are o"en to ne# #ays of en!a!in! "eo"le. Eseful Hualities for someone startin! a Transition -nitiative are2

+ositive Good #ith "eo"le A basi kno#led!e of the "la e and some of the key "eo"le in the to#n.
That* in truth* is about it. 4ou are* after all* about to desi!n your o#n demise into the "ro ess from the start .see Ste" > overleaf0* so your role at this sta!e is like a !ardener "re"arin! the soil for the ensuin! !arden* #hi h you may or may not be around to see.
A8'T B B B 0 don%t have the energy for doing thatEA

As the Huote often as ribed to Goethe !oes* J$hatever you an do or dream you an* be!in it. Boldness has !enius* "o#er and ma!i in it3J The e%"erien e of be!innin! a Transition -nitiative ertainly sho#s this to be the ase. $hile the idea of "re"arin! your to#n .or ity* hamlet* valley or island0 for life beyond oil may seem sta!!erin! in its im"li ations* there is somethin! about the ener!y unleashed by the Transition "ro ess that is unsto""able. 7veryone - have s"oken to #ho has initiated a Transition "ro5e t* has had a "eriod after a fe# #eeks of thinkin!* J$hat have #e started here83J -t may feel that you #ill have to do it all yourself. 4ou may feel over#helmed by the "ros"e t of all the #ork and om"le%ity* but "eo"le #ill ome for#ard to hel". -ndeed* many have ommented on the serendi"ity of the
#hole "ro ess* ho# the ri!ht "eo"le a""ear at the ri!ht time. There is somethin! about sei;in! that boldness* about makin! the lea" from 1#hy is no-one doin! anythin!1 to 1let1s do somethin!1* that !enerates the ener!y to kee" it movin!. <ery often* develo"in! environmental initiatives feels like "ushin! a broken-do#n ar u" a hillK a hard* unre#ardin! slo!. $orkin! #ith a Transition -nitiative often feels like omin! do#n the other side - the ar starts movin! faster than you an kee" u" #ith* a eleratin! all the time. ,n e you !ive it that "ush from the to" of the hill it #ill develo" its o#n momentum. That1s not to say it isn1t hard #ork sometimes* but it is almost al#ays a "leasure.
The Twelve #teps of Transition

These T#elve Ste"s emer!ed from observin! ho# the Transition To#n Totnes initiative evolved* and from other ommunities onta tin! us to ask #hat #e #ere doin!. They don1t take you from A-X* rather from A-C* #hi h is as far as #e1ve !ot #ith this model so far. These ste"s don1t ne essarily follo# ea h other lo!i ally in the order they are set out hereK every Transition initiative #eaves a different #ay throu!h the Ste"s* as you #ill see. These T#elve Ste"s are still evolvin!* in "art sha"ed by your e%"erien e of usin! them. There may end u" bein! as fe# as si% or more than fifty3 -t is im"ortant to observe that they are not meant to be "res ri"tiveK rather they are intended to su!!est "ie es of the "u;;le you may hoose to assemble. 4ou do not have to follo# them reli!iously* ste"-by-ste"2 you an use the ones that feel useful* dis ard the ones that don1t* and add in ne# ones that you ome u" #ith. As you #ill see* many of the ommunities that have already started this "ro ess have already be!un assemblin! them in different #ays.
#et up a steering group and design its demise from the outset
Bill &ollison* the o-ori!inator of the "erma ulture on e"t* on e famously said* J- an1t save the #orld on my o#n. -t1ll take at least three of usJ* or #ords to that effe t. -n startin! your Transition -nitiative you #ill need to !ather some like-minded souls in order to drive for#ard the first sta!e of the "ro ess. $hat is essential thou!h* and its im"ortan e is be omin! in reasin!ly lear* is that from its first meetin!* that !rou" must desi!n its o#n demise* set a defined lifes"an for its fun tionin!. So many !rou"s !et atro"hied and stu k #ith "eo"le #ho lin! to their roles in a #ay that stifles the "ro!ress of the "ro5e t. -n the lon!er term it is im"ortant that the "ro5e t be omes driven by those #ho are a tually doin! thin!s. - #ould su!!est that you form your Steerin! Grou" of reliable "eo"le #ith the aim of !ettin! throu!h Ste"s ' to B* and a!ree that on e a minimum of four sub-!rou"s are formed* your !rou" disbands and the Steerin! Grou" be omes made u" of one "erson from ea h of the !rou"s. This reHuires a de!ree of humility* but is very im"ortant in order to "ut the su ess of the "ro5e t above the individuals involved. -t is also Huite a relief3 -t means that you aren1t formin! a !rou" #hose aim is the om"lete relo alisation of the settlement in HuestionK 5ust to do the first fe# Ste"s - a mu h more mana!eable task3
Transition Tip

-nvite a "rofessional fa ilitator9 han!e mana!er to hel" you -nvolve everybody in the transformation Create* to!ether* lear #ritten aims and "rin i"les for the ne# formation .see our $iki0 and refer to them freHuently Try to stay unatta hed to out ome* and let !o of your o#n a!endas Some "eo"le #ill leave and others #ill 5oin - #hoever turn u" are the ri!ht "eo"le Trust the "ro ess3 A ne# mindset takes time to take root 4by %drienne 3ampbell, Transition Town Lewes5
3aise awareness
4ou annot assume that "eo"le in your ommunity are familiar #ith "eak oil* limate han!e* or even #ith basi environmental on e"ts and "rin i"les that you mi!ht take for !ranted. -t is essential before laun hin! an ,ffi ial Enleashin! event .see A belo#0 that you have "re"ared the !round. -n Totnes #e s"ent nearly a year !ivin! talks* film s reenin!s and net#orkin! before #e or!anised the laun h. Durin! that time #e learned a !reat deal about ho# to do this most effe tively. $e s reened The End of #uburbia three times* and had a full room and a om"letely different audien e ea h time. <arious methods for fa ilitatin! film s reenin!s an be read about in Tool for Transition no. D .see ".>BA0. ,ther films #e sho#ed #ere The Power of 3ommunity and Pea0 !il6 .mposed by "ature .other ideas for films an be found in the /esour es se tion0. ,ne im"ortant "oint is that you an never assume that everyone has seen the films and that no one #ill ome if you sho# them a!ain. These films reate a ri""le effe t and lots of "eo"le #ant to see them. -t is im"ortant that these s reenin!s are "resented in su h a #ay that they are fun and memorable* and reate a bu;;* so that "eo"le !o home and tell their friends and family. Transition Tip
Start any film s reenin! or talk by invitin! "eo"le to turn to the "erson ne%t to them and tell them #ho they are* #here they have ome from* and #hy they are here. Then after the film .or talk0 do the same thin! .but #ith the "erson on their other side0* this time to talk about their thou!hts on the film. +eo"le en5oy doin! this* it really enhan es their en5oyment of the evenin! and is a "o#erful tool for startin! to build onne tions.
Another as"e t of this a#areness-raisin! #ork is talks. -t is essential to avoid a series of "eak oil talks #hi h are doom-laden evenin!s about ho# ivilisation is about to im"lode and #e are all about to start eatin! ea h other #hen oil hits N>'( a barrel. This #ill lead to your Transition -nitiative fallin! at the first hurdle. Find s"eakers #ho an "resent the matter in a "ositive* en!a!in! #ay. ,r!anise events that make "eo"le think* but #hi h also su""ort them throu!h the "ro ess of realisin! the illusory nature of the oil- reated #orld around them* #hi h for
some an be Huite traumati . 4ou need to be "re"ared for the diverse manifestations of 1"ost"etroleum stress disorder1. &ake sure you desi!n enou!h s"a e into your events for "eo"le to talk #ith ea h other and feel some de!ree of su""ort in e%"lorin! these issues. Althou!h your a#areness-raisin! "ro ess is* on the surfa e* about informin! "eo"le and disseminatin! ideas* it is also* "erha"s more im"ortantly* about !ettin! "eo"le talkin! to ea h other* startin! to build the so ial net#orks on #hi h your Transition -nitiative #ill de"end. &ake sure any event !ives "eo"le the time to talk to the "erson ne%t to them. 4ou mi!ht also run an evenin! lass* !o into s hools* #rite arti les for the lo al "a"er* or !et somethin! on the lo al television. There is really no lear #ay of kno#in! #hen this sta!e has been done suffi iently to allo# you to move on to Ste" @ - you 5ust have to !au!e that yourself someho#. - #as only able to effe tively assess the im"a t of #hat #e had done #hen /i hard Heinber! #as in Totnes in De ember '((C and at the be!innin! of his talk he asked the audien e ho# many of them #ere familiar #ith the on e"t of "eak oil. Three Huarters of the room .#hi h ontained about @B( "eo"le0 "ut u" their hands. This sta!e also allo#s you* if you are ne# to the to#n you are #orkin! in* to meet "eo"le* to see #ho are the "eo"le #ho ome to all these events* #ho may be ome your key allies. All this #ill stand you in very !ood stead #hen you ki k off the "ro ess "ro"er. The so ial net#ork buildin! as"e t of this is as im"ortant* if not more so* than ho# many "eo"le are able to tell you #ho &. =in! Hubbert #as and #hat the annual oil out"ut of &e%i o is. Transition Tip
,ne #ay you an use your film s reenin!s to dra# in offi ial bodies is to invite a member of the lo al authority* "referably one #ho makes de isions on ener!y and environmental issues* or "erha"s a "lanner* to be a member of a "anel to omment on the issues raised by the film. This #ill be benefi ial in t#o dire tions2 it introdu es them to the issues your -nitiative is e%"lorin! and also to the or!anisation* but it also allo#s you to Huestion them about their thinkin! on su h issues.
6ay the foundations

-t is e%tremely unlikely that you #ill be startin! a Transition -nitiative in a "la e #here absolutely no environmental initiatives have ever ha""ened before. -t is "ossible that su h "la es e%ist2 if you are in su h a "la e it mi!ht be #orth ontem"latin! #hy nothin! has ever ha""ened there before3 $ithin the ommunity there #ill be "eo"le #ho are 5ust findin! out about environmental ideas* "eo"le #ho have been familiar #ith the intelle tual side of it for years but haven1t done mu h "ra ti al a tion* those #ho are !ardeners* !ro#ers and builders* and "eo"le #ho are burnt out from doin! similar stuff for years #hile no one listened. There is also a ran!e of offi ial and semi-offi ial or!anisations and bodies* from lo al !overnment to $omen1s -nstitutes. -t is essential at this sta!e that you net#ork #ith these !rou"s* and make it lear that this is a "ro ess of su""ortin! and ollaboratin! #ith them* rather than du"li atin! their endeavours or* #orse still* dismissin! their years of hard #ork as
someho# irrelevant. ,ffer "resentations to all the e%istin! environmental and de ision-makin! or!anisations in the to#n. $hen introdu in! your -nitiative to other !rou"s* !ive a on ise and a essible overvie# of "eak oil* #hat it means* ho# it relates to limate han!e .this may be an im"ortant "oint #ith some !reen !rou"s #ho are ommitted to ta klin! limate han!e but not really au fait #ith "eak oil and the relationshi" bet#een the t#o0* ho# it mi!ht affe t the ommunity in Huestion* and the key hallen!es* as #ell as the key o""ortunities it "resents. Set out your thinkin! about ho# the Transition "ro ess ould a t as a atalyst for !ettin! the ommunity to e%"lore this and to be!in thinkin! about !rass-roots miti!ation strate!ies. 4ou do need to be a bit areful in 5ointly or!anisin! events #ith other !rou"s2 #hen it #orks it1s !reat* but if it runs into "roblems it an be diffi ult to kee" everyone ha""y. 4ou #ill need to ensure that ea h !rou" is ha""y #ith ho# the event is "resented* "romoted and fa ilitated. For e%am"le* #e have or!anised some talks #ith S huma her Colle!e and the lo al F,7 !rou" .see "oster above0* #hi h #ere very su essful. +art of this "hase also involves rea hin! out to !rou"s #ho are usually by"assed or i!nored by environmental !rou"s* for e%am"le the lo al Chamber of Commer e or the Conservative Asso iation. -f this is !oin! to #ork it #ill need the in"ut of a broader ran!e of bodies than has been the ase in the "ast. -n essen e* 1Layin! the foundations1 is about net#orkin! #ith e%istin! !rou"s and a tivists* and stressin! that this Transition -nitiative is not a "ro ess of du"li atin! their #ork but of reHuestin! their in"ut in a ne# #ay of lookin! at the future. A kno#led!e and honour the #ork they do* and stress that they have a vital role to "lay. Transition Tip
-nvite other lo al !rou"s to o-"resent events #ith you* and desi!n as many events into your "ro!rammes that involve other !rou"s as "ossible.
;rganise a Freat 'nleashing

- use the term 1Enleashin!1 be ause that is the sense that this event should embody. Throu!h the first three sta!es* ideally you no# have a !rounds#ell of "eo"le fired u" about "eak oil and limate han!e and ea!er to start doin! somethin!. The aim of this event is to !enerate a momentum #hi h #ill "ro"el your -nitiative for#ard for the ne%t "eriod of its #ork. The ,ffi ial Enleashin! of Transition To#n Totnes #as held in Se"tember '((C* and had been "re eded by about ten months of talks* film s reenin!s and so on. By the time of the Enleashin!* #e felt that there #as suffi ient ener!y in the to#n to do this su essfully. This #as based* entirely unsub5e tively* on the fa t that numbers attendin! events #ere steadily in reasin!* more "eo"le #anted to sto" us in the street to talk about it* and also the fa t that #e #ere !ettin! im"atient to ki k it all off. Ho# you 5ud!e #hen to do your Enleashin! is entirely a matter of olle tive 5ud!ement. Some !rou"s* su h as Transition +en#ith* started "retty mu h from old #ith an Enleashin!* be ause they had the han e of havin! /i hard Heinber! "resent it* a rare enou!h
o""ortunity. The ideal thou!h* as - see it* is like one of those toy vol anoes that hildren like2 you !radually add a bit of vine!ar* a bit of bakin! "o#der* a bit more vine!ar* a bit more bakin! "o#der* until the "ressure inside builds to an unbearable "oint* and then BA&* you hold your Enleashin!. -t marks the arrival of the "ro5e t* and it is a elebration of the ommunity1s desire to a t. -t is im"ortant to stress* as Chris :ohnstone did at the TTT Enleashin!* that this is an histori evenin!* the be!innin! of the !reat han!e* the evenin! "eo"le #ill look ba k to as the evenin! #here it all started. There is a balan e bet#een it bein! "er eived as too flaky for the serious environmentalists* and too dry for those #ho like to be more emotional about thin!s. -t is a balan e Chris strikes "erfe tly* and -1m sure others an too. His an!le is that* as observed in his #ork #ith addi tions* on e #e de ide to a t* #e find our "o#er* and that in seemin!ly im"ossible situations* it is by doin! it that #e find Hualities and stren!ths #e never kne# #e had. ,ther thin!s #e did at the Totnes Enleashin! #ere !ettin! "eo"le talkin! to ea h other in "airs about their on erns and fears in relation to "eak oil and limate han!e* as #ell as their visions for the future. They #ere invited to #rite these u" on "ost-it notes and "ut them on the #all. These #ere subseHuently ty"ed u" and emailed out to everyone #ho attended. As many o""ortunities as "ossible for "eo"le to meet ea h other and to talk #ere built in. -t should be a memorable and histori o asion. Ho# you do that #ill be different in ea h ommunity. An Enleashin! #ill inevitably be different from the usual "eak oil "resentation. -t is not about bad ne#s* !loom and doom and "assin! on to "eo"le the information about 5ust ho# "re arious our situation is. -t is a elebration of the "ossibilities that lie ahead of us if #e a t to!ether #ith ima!ination* havin! harnessed our olle tive !enius. -t is a elebration of the ommunity1s resour efulness and reativity. Certainly the Totnes one reated a hu!e amount of ener!y and !ood#ill that has driven it for#ard ever sin e. This also ha""ened in +en#ith and Le#es. ,ne thin! #e should have done and #hi h - #ould re ommend is to dra# u" a list of "eo"le to invite* oun illors* "lanners* "oliti ians* lo al movers and shakers. An Enleashin! is not somethin! to be or!anised li!htly. -t is a one-off o""ortunity to brin! all those "eo"le to!ether and to laun h the Transition -nitiative. -f you !et it ri!ht* "eo"le1s lastin! im"ressions #ill be that this is a dynami "ro5e t #hi h is !oin! to do !reat thin!s. A "oorly or!anised* ill-attended* half-hearted Enleashin! #ill make the ne%t "hase of your #ork an u"hill stru!!le. - #ould think that si% months to a year after your first film s reenin! is about ri!ht* but learly that de"ends on your situation. -t should be a "o#erful* "assionate* informative* and ins"irational evenin! that "eo"le #ill remember for many years to ome. Don1t rush it. Transition Tip
4our Enleashin! need not 5ust feature talks. -t ould in lude musi * "erforman e* ima!es from lo al history. -t is also useful to reate s"a e #ithin it for lo al !rou"s to "resent themselves. At the Enleashin! of Transition To#n Le#es* ad5oinin! the main room #as a room #here all the various lo al 1!reen1 !rou"s and ommunity or!anisations had stalls.
:orm groups
+art of the "ro ess of develo"in! an 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan is that of ta""in! into the olle tive !enius of the ommunity. ,ne of the most effe tive #ays to do this is to set u" a number of smaller !rou"s to fo us on s"e ifi as"e ts of the "ro ess. 7a h of these !rou"s #ill develo" their o#n #ays of #orkin! and their o#n a tivities* but #ill fall under the umbrella of the "ro5e t as a #hole. Transition Tip
7a h meetin! of a #orkin! !rou" ould invite a 1#itness1* someone #ho has e%"ertise in the field in Huestion* #ho ould then be asked for their "ers"e tive on the issues* their e%"erien e and their ideas for subseHuent 1#itnesses1.
As or!anisers of the initiative* you an be Huite "roa tive in !ettin! these !rou"s to form. -n Totnes #hat #e did #as to desi!n the "ro!ramme so as to en oura!e s"e ifi !rou"s. For e%am"le* to !et the Food !rou" !oin!* #e first ran an evenin! event alled 1Feedin! Totnes2 "ast* "resent and future1* #here s"eakers addressed ea h as"e t of the issue in turn. This dre# in many of the "eo"le in the to#n #ith an interest in food. This #as follo#ed three days later by an ,"en S"a e Day on food. This e%"lored in de"th the "ossibilities of the relo alisation of food in the Totnes area. From this meetin! a number of initiatives emer!ed* and "eo"le ame for#ard to run the Food !rou". $e have sin e used this model to start a fe# of the other !rou"s. -n TTT* #e have set out a olle tion of !uidelines that #e ask those onsiderin! formin! ne# !rou"s to read throu!h first. They run as follo#s2

7a h !rou" should have a ore of "eo"le #ho steer it* and #ho meet re!ularly* but also be o"en to #hoever else #ants to ome. 7a h !rou" should be ontinually askin! itself 1$ho isn1t here that should be here81* that is* al#ays bein! o"en to e%"lorin! ne# 1avenues1 by #hi h ne# "eo"le #ith relevant skills an be dra#n into the !rou". The key task of ea h !rou" is to e%"lore the Huestion2 1$hat is a vision for a lo#ener!y Totnes in relation to this field* and #hat mi!ht a timetable for that look like81 The !rou" is assemblin! ideas and information that #ill enable them to "ut to!ether their se tion of the Totnes 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan. 7a h !rou" #ill have a ess to the relevant se tion of the "ro5e t1s #ebsite* and #ill also be able to use the lo!o in its "ubli ity materials. -n e% han!e* it #ill kee" a re ord of its business on the #ebsite* be it as minutes or as notes. At "resent the Transition 6et#ork offers $iki #ebs"a e to ne# Transition -nitiatives* #hi h is easy to maintain and u"date. 7a h !rou" #ill also be able to use the $iki #ebsite* allo#in! it to "ost initial drafts of do uments or of its se tion of the 7ner!y Des ent +lan* in su h a #ay that others an edit it online - a "o#erful ollaborative information-buildin! tool.
The final thin! to say on the Huestion of settin! u" !rou"s is that you annot assume that everyone #ho offers to form and fa ilitate a !rou" a tually has the skills to do so. -t be ame
lear after a #hile that it #as useful to offer trainin! in fa ilitation and desi!nin! su essful meetin!s to all our !rou" onvenors. $e or!anised a day #ith Andy Lan!ford and Liora Adler of Gaia Eniversity on the sub5e t of Desi!nin! +rodu tive &eetin!s. This overed basi tools like 1Go-rounds1* 1Think and Listens1 and so on .see Tools for Transition 6o. I* ""*>CA-B0* and #as e%tremely useful. -t is also useful for these !rou"s to meet ea h other on a monthly basis .at least0. -n TTT* the fa ilitators of ea h !rou" meet on a monthly basis. 7a h !rou" sends one "erson to that meetin!. $e meet and then have lun h to!ether. Desi!nin! in as many o""ortunities for the !rou"s to net#ork and meet ea h other as "ossible is ru ial. Transition Tip
-t may not al#ays be ne essary to a tually start a ne# #orkin! !rou". Sometimes there may be e%istin! !rou"s in the area #ho have done lots of #ork on a "arti ular sub5e t. There may* for e%am"le* be stron! rene#able ener!y !rou"s* or lo al food !rou"s. Consider avoidin! du"li ation by !oin! to them and askin! if they may like to take on the role of bein! a Transition !rou"* and feed their ideas into the 7DA+ "ro ess.
'se ;pen #pace

,"en S"a e Te hnolo!y is an e%traordinary tool. -t has been des ribed as Ja sim"le #ay to run "rodu tive meetin!s* for five to '*(((^ "eo"le* and a "o#erful #ay to lead any kind of or!anisation* in everyday "ra ti e and on!oin! han!eJ. -n theory it ou!ht not to #ork. A lar!e !rou" of "eo"le omes to!ether to e%"lore a "arti ular to"i or issue* #ith no a!enda* no timetable* no obvious o-ordinator and no minute-takers. 4et by the end of the "ro ess* everyone has said #hat they needed to* e%tensive notes have been taken and ty"ed u"* lots of net#orkin! has taken "la e* and a hu!e number of ideas have been identified and visions set out. .See "a!e >C) for ho# to run an ,"en S"a e event0. Transition Tip
&ake sure that you have !iven a lot of onsideration to the fo usin! Huestion that #ill under"in your ,"en S"a e Day. -t should be one that is relevant to those attendin! and that #ill dra# in those "eo"le "assionate about the sub5e t* for e%am"le JHo# mi!ht our to#n feed itself beyond hea" oil8J* or J$hat is the role of edu ation in a lo#erener!y future8J
At TTT ,"en S"a e Days* the ideas !enerated in the event are u"loaded in real time* live onto our #ebsite. So far these have been on Food* 7ner!y* Housin!* 7 onomi s* the Arts* the +sy holo!y of Chan!e* 7du ation and Trans"ort. This reHuires someone "re"ared to 1s ribe1 the notes that emer!e from the different !rou"s* a ess to broadband* t#o la"to"s* a memory sti k or #riteable CD* and someone able to u"load onto the #ebsite. A di!ital amera is also useful. The beauty of "ostin! it live onto a $iki site is that anyone #ho is follo#in! the event any#here in the #orld an send in their thou!hts on the sub5e t. -t also means that at the end of the day you don1t have loads of notes that some "oor soul has to take home to ty"e u"* but
that all the out omes of the day are ty"ed and available for "eo"le to muse over and add omments to #hen they !et home. Some time in advan e of ea h ,"en S"a e* dra# u" a list of the key "eo"le you feel should be there for that to"i . Send them a "ersonal* not a !eneri * invitation. &ake them feel that you have s"e ifi ally invited them be ause of their e%"ertise on the sub5e t. There are other tools #hi h are similar to ,"en S"a e* su h as $orld CafZ_ .see "".>)A-B0 #hi h have many of the same out omes. The essen e is to !et "eo"le talkin!* buildin! relationshi"s* dis ussin! ideas and makin! onne tions. -t an do a !reat deal to identify "riorities for the #ork ahead in relation to that sub5e t. Transition Tip
Sustainin! ener!y levels an be done in different #ays. 7nsure that tea and offee are available throu!hout the day. -f you an or!anise lun h for "eo"le it hel"s a !reat deal* as it !ets round the "roblem of "eo"le driftin! off for lun h and then !ettin! ba k late. ,ne thin! #e did at one Totnes ,"en S"a e day #as have a !rou" of musi ians #ho #ere "layin! later that evenin! in Totnes ome and "lay to the ,"en S"a ers at lun htime. -t #as !ood advan e "ubli ity for them* and it om"letely han!ed the fo us and re-ener!ised the day.
5evelop visible practical manifestations of the pro2ect

-t is easy to ome u" #ith ideas* but harder to !et "ra ti al thin!s ha""enin! on the !round. -t is essential that you avoid any sense that your "ro5e t is 5ust a talkin! sho" #here "eo"le sit around and dra# u" endless #ish lists. 4our "ro5e t needs* from an early sta!e* to be!in to reate "ra ti al manifestations in the to#n* hi!h visibility si!nals that it means business. The "o#er that doin! this has to affe t both "eo"le1s "er e"tions of the "ro5e t and their #illin!ness to en!a!e is hu!e. These manifestations an take a variety of forms. -t mi!ht be "rodu tive tree "lantin!s* solar "anels* or hem"9lime "lasterin!. -t ould be a beautiful ob bus-shelter or an alternative urren y used for a defined "eriod. They should* at this "oint* be both un ontroversial and "hoto!eni . -n "erma ulture* #e talk about the need to observe a "lot of land for the first year before makin! any interventions or om"letin! any desi!n. The same !oes for a Transition -nitiative. 4our first year is a time for net#orkin!* brainstormin!* a#areness-raisin!* information !atherin!. -t is the time #hen you are !atherin! the "ie es that are later assembled in an 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan. 4ou don1t #ant to start doin! "ro5e ts #hi h* on e you have om"leted your 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan* you realise are in the #ron! "la e and not a tually "ro"erly thou!ht out. $hile it is essential to take your time and "lan "ro"erly* there is a balan e to be stru k hereK you also need to arry the ommunity alon! #ith you. Small hi!hly visible "ro5e ts #ill allo# "eo"le to see that you mean business* that you are here to stay* and #ill !ive them a tan!ible sense of #hat you are talkin! about. +eo"le need to !et a sense of the #hole* and to see thin!s ha""enin! that they an !o home and tell their friends about. These "ra ti al manifestations #ill also brin! into the "ro5e t the
"eo"le #ho have s"ent the first fe# months sittin! ba k* sayin!* J$e1ll see. -1ve heard all this before* this is 5ust another of those flash-in-the-"an "ro5e ts* -1ll kee" an eye on it.J $hen they start to see infrastru ture !oin! in* it be omes infe tious* they #ant to be a "art of it. -f you have done the "revious ste"s #ell* you may #ell find that the sub-!rou"s start develo"in! their o#n "ra ti al "ro5e ts automati ally. As the momentum builds* you #ill find "ra ti al manifestations burstin! out all over the "la e. Another s"in-off benefit of these "ra ti al "ro5e ts is their !reat team-buildin! "otential. A !rou" meetin! re!ularly to dis uss food issues is one thin!. -f that !rou" meets and "lants an or hard in a day* shares a "i ni and leaves #ith a sense of !reat a hievement* that is very "o#erful in terms of buildin! the dynami of that !rou". A Transition -nitiative #ith dirt under its fin!ernails #ill arry a lot more redibility. -n Totnes* the Totnes +ound has been our most su essful manifestation of this Ste". Transition Tip
&ake sure that you !et !ood "ubli ity for all these "ra ti al manifestations. This #ill be very hel"ful in buildin! a #ides"read onfiden e in #hat you are doin!. -nvolve lo al s hools* lo al di!nitaries* and desi!n events that !rab the attention* be they tree "lantin!s* natural buildin! "ro5e ts in s hools or deliverin! books to the lo al library. &ake them as "hoto!eni as "ossible.
:acilitate the Freat 3eskilling

- believe that one of the main fa tors ontributin! to the sense of "ani that often sets in immediately after an a#areness of "eak oil* es"e ially for youn! men* is the realisation that #e no lon!er have many of the basi skills our !rand"arents took for !ranted. ,ne of the most useful thin!s a Transition -nitiative an do is to offer #idely available trainin! in a ran!e of these skills. $hat skills ou!ht #e tea h8 $e need to enlar!e our ideas of #hat these mi!ht be. Some resear h is useful* in terms of #hat skills "eo"le used to have that mi!ht still be a""ro"riate* as #ell as lookin! at the skills "eo"le have or need no#. These /eskillin! events fulfil a fe# different fun tions2

They brin! "eo"le to!ether* rela%in! and learnin! ne# skills They build net#orks They build a fundamental sense of 1 an do1 They an reate a link bet#een old and youn!* as skills are "assed on They an be "ra ti al events #hi h a tually "ut somethin! in "la e* like a natural buildin! day that "rodu es a ob bus sto" or similar* thereby offerin! an o""ortunity for reatin! +ra ti al &anifestations .see Ste" D* ".>C@0
$ork #ith e%istin! !rou"s* lo al sustainability entres* olle!es and so on #here "ossible. Dra# on lo al skills #herever you an. -t is !reat if you an desi!n these events in su h a #ay that students from the first runnin! of a ourse an hel" tea h the students the se ond time it runs.
To be!in #ith* your Great /eskillin! #ill lar!ely onsist of one- to t#o-day ourses* or lon!er evenin! lasses like 1Skillin! E" for +o#erdo#n1 .see "a!e >IA0. -n time you mi!ht be able to offer somethin! like the t#o-year full-time +ra ti al Sustainability ourse at =insale F7C in -reland. ,n that s ale there is a lot you an do in terms of outrea h and en!a!ement. A Transition -nitiative invites a ommunity to undertake a 5ourney* to embark on a olle tive adventure. <ery often in modern so iety "eo"le feel disem"o#ered* su h that even han!in! an in andes ent li!ht bulb for a lo#-ener!y one is too mu h effort. 4our Great /eskillin! should !ive "eo"le a sense of the "o#er of solvin! "roblems* of "ra ti ally doin! thin!s rather than 5ust talkin! about them* and of the sense of belon!in! that omes from #orkin! alon!side other "eo"le. Above all it should be fun.
8uild a bridge to local government

$hatever the de!ree of !rounds#ell your Transition -nitiative mana!es to !enerate* ho#ever many "ra ti al "ro5e ts you mana!e to !et !oin! on the !round and ho#ever #onderful your 7ner!y Des ent +lan is* you #ill not "ro!ress very far unless you have ultivated a "ositive and "rodu tive relationshi" #ith your lo al authority. $hether it is "lannin! issues* fundin! issues or #hatever* you need them on board. 4ou may #ell find* in many "la es no#* that you are "ushin! a!ainst an o"en door. -t is advisable to start the "ro ess of dra#in! them in as early as "ossible in the "ro ess. Go and see the relevant "eo"le #ithin the Coun il and introdu e yourself and the "ro5e t. -t is essential to steer lear of any sense of 1them and us1. -t #ould also be very useful to resear h the develo"ment "lans that they have !enerated* to see #hat they have already done. /ather than your reinventin! the #heel* very often Coun ils have done lots of ommunity onsultation and resear h* and althou!h mu h of it #ill be based on dubious "resum"tions #ith re!ards to oil availability and limate han!e* it is #orth he kin! out. -n short* seek to en!a!e. 4ou may #ell find "eo"le far hun!rier for your ideas than you ima!ine3 -n Transition To#n Totnes* our Liaison #ith Lo al Government Grou" #orks on #ays in #hi h the TTT -nitiative an most su essfully interfa e #ith Lo al Government. They do mu h that - have set out above* and seek to ma%imise the "rodu tive 1ed!e1 bet#een the t#o. 7ventually the link #ith lo al !overnment mi!ht e%tend* on e an 7ner!y Des ent +lan has been "rodu ed* to someone runnin! for ele tion to the lo al oun il on an 7ner!y Des ent +lan ti ket. -f Ste"s > to D have been su essfully "ursued* they should !et in by a landslide3 Transition Tip
For any bi! events you "lan to run* dra# u" a list of "eo"le #ithin the lo al authority .as #ell as lo al business* the ommunity and so on0 #ho you feel should be there* and invite them "ersonally. &ake sure they are "ersonally #el omed and !reeted u"on their arrival.
Honour the elders

For those of us born durin! or after the >IC(s #hen the hea" oil "arty #as in full s#in!* it is very hard to relate the idea of life #ith less oil #ith our o#n "ersonal e%"erien e. 7very year of my life .the oil rises of the >ID(s e% e"ted0 has been under"inned by more ener!y than the "revious years. - have no idea of #hat a more lo alised so iety looked like in the E=K the losest - have is ho# to#ns #ere in rural -reland #hen - moved there in >IIC* #here most of the sho"s #ere still o#ned by lo al families* the most memorable ones sli!htly dam"-smellin! #ith #ooden floorboards* sellin! the most unusual ombinations of thin!s ."araffin lam"s* bo%es of bis uits and a"rons0 !enerally run by a ou"le in their late si%ties. There is a !reat deal that #e an learn from those #ho dire tly remember the transition to the a!e of Chea" ,il* es"e ially the "eriod bet#een >I@( and >IC(. As "art of the Transition To#n Totnes -nitiative* #e have been doin! oral history intervie#s #ith older "eo"le in the area. ,ne* #ith &uriel Lan!ford* no# in her mid-ei!hties* ontained a "assa!e - found es"e ially illuminatin!2 JE"stairs - had :eremy in his ot on my side* so - had an ele tri tor h so that #hen he #oke u" - #ould s#it h on the tor h and then immediately 7ri #ould turn to the andle on his side #hi h you ouldn1t have on the side #here the baby #as* and he1d li!ht the andle to save the battery in the tor h. $e had a !ood little system !oin!3J This #as in >IAB* and batteries #ere so "re ious that they had to develo" this system to minimise their use. Totnes at that time im"orted very little food* "eo"le lived at hi!her densities #ithin the e%istin! buildin!s .#hi h #ere lived in more like bedsits rather than the lar!er homes they are no#adays0. There #as very little traffi . She s"oke of movin! into a flat on the Hi!h Street in >IAB #hi h reHuired the #indo#s to be removed and lar!e "ie es of furniture to be #in hed in. This meant that the removals lorry #as stationary in the middle of the road* #here nothin! ould "ass* for over A hours. 6o#adays after A minutes you #ould have reated a ma5or traffi 5am and you1d have some very irate drivers to deal #ith3 Transition Tip &hen doing oral history interviews, avoid doing them with more than one person at a time$ . recently went to do one with a lady who had fascinating stories to tell about being a land girl on Devon farms during the &ar, but she said, a few minutes into our chat, '7y dear, . have nothing interesting to tell you at all, so . invited my friend to come along as well$' % few minutes later he arrived, and . started tal0ing with the two of them$ The problem is that they began to reminisce8 one would say '%nd down by the 9uay there was that shop, what was it called:', the other would reply ';ameson(s', to which the first would say, '!h yes, ;ameson(s $ $ $ now they had three sons, didn(t they:' '!h yes, ;ason, he(s in %ustralia now $ $ $' and so on$ .t was very hard to get any useful information at all< As #ell as those kinds of ane dote* - find it fas inatin! to hear "eo"les1 stories of ho# they lived then. &ost "eo"le !ardened - it #as 5ust #hat they did. +eo"le talk of the sense of ommunity they had. -t is fas inatin! to see* #hen talkin! to those #ho lived throu!h the #ar years* the sense of thrift and 1enou!h1 that those "eo"le - s"oke to had. $hat #ould it take to
rebuild that8 ,ral histories are also very useful for !ettin! a handle on the skills that "eo"le used to have* #hi h links dire tly to Ste" D .".>C@0. -n doin! resear h for the Transition To#n Totnes "ro ess* - found* for e%am"le* that until the early >I)(s there #ere market !ardens #ithin Totnes* in #hat are no# the ar "arks* #hi h su""lied the sho"s in to#n .as des ribed in Cha"ter @0. ,ral histories and histori al resear h an offer fas inatin! insi!hts into ho# "eo"le used to feed* em"loy and heat themselves. Clearly not all of it is relevant* and olle tin! reminis en es arries a dan!er of romanti isin! the "ast and devaluin! the "resent* but there is mu h that an be learned. +erha"s you mi!ht olle t these stories to!ether and "ublish them. - do think there is somethin! "o#erful in makin! one of your first ste"s in doin! this "ro ess to !o to the elders of the ommunity and ask for their in"ut. -t is somethin! that in many ultures #ould be instin tive* but in ours has been sidelined. ,ne interestin! thin! #hen you start doin! an intervie# like this is that "eo"le al#ays start by sayin! J- don1t kno# #hy you #ant to talk to me* -1m sure - have nothin! interestin! to say to you . . .J* and then !o on to da;;le you #ith s"ellbindin! ane dotes and fas inatin! information3
6et it go where it wants to go

Ste" >> is really "retty strai!htfor#ard* reHuirin! very little elu idation. -n essen e* if you start out develo"in! your Transition "ro ess #ith a lear idea of #here it #ill !o* it #ill inevitably !o else#here. 4ou need to be o"en to it* follo#in! the dire tion of the ener!y of those #ho !et involved. -f you try to hold onto the idea that it #ill be a ertain #ay it #ill* after a #hile* be!in to sa" the ener!y that is buildin! around the "ro ess. This is #hat is so e% itin! about the #hole thin!2 seein! #hat emer!es. -t is #orth bearin! in mind all the #ay throu!h that your role is to a t as a atalyst for the ommunity desi!nin! this transition and to fa ilitate "eo"le askin! the ri!ht Huestions* rather than to ome u" #ith the ans#ers.
Create an 4nergy 5escent *ction Plan

At the moment there is only one 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan* the one done for =insale in -reland. -t makes no laims to bein! authoritative or om"rehensiveK it #as* after all* done as a student "ro5e t before #e really kne# #hat #e #ere doin!. $hat it did very #ell #as to su!!est a tem"late that other settlements an follo# in desi!nin! "ath#ays a#ay from oilde"enden y. An 7ner!y Des ent +lan needn1t even be alled an 7ner!y Des ent +lan. ,ther names have been "ro"osed by those #ho feel the term 1ener!y des ent1 is someho# too de"ressin!K alternative su!!estions have in luded 1Community /esilien e A tion +lan1 .that one didn1t sti k too lon!* for obvious a ronymi reasons0 and 17ner!y Transition +ath#ay1. $hatever it is alled* the idea is strai!htfor#ard. An 7DA+ sets out a vision of a "o#ereddo#n* resilient* relo alised future* and then ba k asts* in a series of "ra ti al ste"s* reatin! a ma" for !ettin! from here to there. 7very settlement1s 7DA+ #ill be different* both in ontent and in style. Ho#ever* they #ill all e%"lore a #ide ran!e of areas as #ell as ener!y2 ener!y
des ent is an issue #hi h affe ts every as"e t of our lives. 4ou #ill also be e%"lorin! food* tourism* e onomi s* edu ation and a lot more besides. The 7DA+ model an be seen as a flo# dia!ram in A""endi% A. This is #ork in "ro!ress* to be sha"ed as more and more ommunities head off do#n the road of reatin! their o#n 7DA+s. $e have* ho#ever* identified the follo#in! ten ste"s in the "ro ess of reatin! an 7DA+2
#tep ;ne: 4stablish a baseline

This involves olle tin! some basi data on the urrent "ra ti es of your to#n* #hether in terms of ener!y onsum"tion* food miles or amount of food onsumed. ,ne ould s"end years !atherin! this kind of data* but you aren1t tryin! to build u" a hu!ely detailed "i ture* more a fe# key indi ators around key elements of ho# the "la e fun tions. Ho# mu h arable land is there* ho# many ars ome and !o ea h day8 4ou may #ell find your lo al Coun il has a lot of this information any#ay. 4our #orkin! !rou"s may have identified some of this information. #tep Two: Fet the 6ocal Community Plan
4our lo al !overnment1s "lans for the area are likely to have times ales and elements that you need to take into a ount in your 7DA+. They #ill also be a useful sour e of information and data. 4ou #ill need to de ide #hether you assume that the e%istin! "lan is based on unrealisti assum"tions and #ill be ome irrelevant* or #hether you #ant your "lans to #ra" around theirs. #tep Three: The overall vision
$hat #ould your ommunity look like in fifteen or t#enty years if it #ere emittin! drasti ally less C,'* usin! drasti ally less non-rene#able ener!y* and it #as #ell on the #ay to rebuildin! resilien e in all riti al as"e ts of life8 This "ro ess #ill use information !athered in your ,"en S"a e Days* from Transition Tales and a ran!e of other visionin! days* to reate an overall sense of #hat the to#n ould be like. Allo# yourselves to dream. #tep :our: 5etailed visioning
For ea h of the #orkin! !rou"s on food* health* ener!y et . .althou!h this is tri kier for Heart and Soul !rou"s* for e%am"le0* #hat #ould their area look like in detail #ithin the onte%t of the vision set out above8
#tep :ive: 8ackcast in detail

The #orkin! !rou"s then list out a timeline of the milestones* "rereHuisites* a tivities and "ro esses that need to be in "la e if the vision is to be a hieved. This is also the "oint to define the resilien e indi ators that #ill tell you if the settlement is movin! in the ri!ht dire tion. Esin! the tool of ba k astin! #ill also enable you to think throu!h some very useful Huestions. An e%am"le of this is the model* bein! develo"ed in Totnes* of the Lo al +assivHaus .see ".>>B0. This takes the S andinavian model of the +assivHaus* a house #hi h derives all its heatin! needs from !ood orientation* su"er-insulation and the o u"ants1 body heat* and redesi!ns it to use )(O lo al materials. Ho#ever* learly havin! a Lo al +assivHaus built tomorro# #ould be a near-im"ossibility2 a number of thin!s #ould need to be in "la e first. There #ould need to be a lo al hem" industry in "la e* lo al lime "rodu tion* "eo"le makin! lay "lasters and* "erha"s more im"ortantly* a #orkfor e trained u" and familiar #ith these ne# materials and te hniHues. An 7DA+ offers a #ay of settin! out the "ra ti alities of the transition. Transition Tip
4ou mi!ht ommission lo al "hoto!ra"hers or "hoto!ra"hy students to "rodu e some "hotos of your ommunity in '(@( to illustrate your 7DA+.
#tep #i/: Transition Tales

Alon!side the "ro ess above* the Transition Tales !rou" "rodu es arti les* stories* "i tures and re"resentations of the visioned ommunity .su h as those seen in 1A <ision of '(@(1 in Cha"ter )0* !ivin! a tan!ible sense* throu!h a variety of reative media* of #hat this "o#ereddo#n #orld ould be like. These #ill later be #oven into the do ument. #tep #even: Pull together the backcasts into an overall plan
6e%t* the different !rou"s1 timelines are ombined to!ether to ensure their oheren e. This mi!ht be done on a bi! #all #ith "ost-it notes to ensure that* for e%am"le* the Food !rou" haven1t "lanned to turn into a market !arden the same ar "ark that the &edi ine !rou" #ant to turn into a health entre. This "ro ess ou!ht not to be too time- onsumin!K it is 5ust to ensure that #hen ombined* the different strands of the "lan all tell a onsistent story. #tep 4ight: Create a first draft
&er!e the overall "lan and the Transition Tales into one ohesive #hole* #ith ea h area of the "lan be!innin! #ith a short summary of the state of "lay in '(()* follo#ed by the vision for '(@(. This is then follo#ed by a year-by-year "ro!ramme for a tion* as identified in the ba k astin! "ro ess. ,n e om"lete* "ass the do ument out for revie# and onsultation.
-f your mental "i ture of the final 7DA+ is ommunity "lannin! do uments you have seen before* then think a!ain. 4our 7DA+ should feel more like a holiday bro hure* "resentin! a lo alised* lo#-ener!y #orld in su h an enti in! #ay that anyone readin! it #ill feel their life utterly bereft if they don1t dedi ate the rest of their lives to#ards its realisation. #tep Cine: :inalise the 45*P
-nte!rate the feedba k you re eive into the 7DA+. /ealisti ally* this do ument #on1t ever be 1final1 - it #ill be ontinually u"dated and au!mented as onditions han!e and ideas emer!e. &ake a bi! s"lash #hen it omes out. #tep Ten: CelebrateE
Al#ays a !ood thin! to do. -n fa t* you "robably should have been doin! this after every ste" above3 Transition Tip
:ust be ause your lo al "lannin! frame#ork do uments mi!ht set out "lans for the ne%t t#enty years is no !uarantee* in the onte%t of "eak oil and limate han!e* that they #ill ome to fruition. -f there are assum"tions made in it that you feel to be utterly unrealisti .a ne# air"ort or hu!ely in reased road trans"ort0* don1t feel duty bound to desi!n your "lan around every #ord in these do uments.
8eyond the Twelve #teps B B B

The T#elve Ste"s above set out a "lan of a tion* and you may be for!iven for assumin! that Ste" >' is the end of the "ro ess. ,n the ontrary* it is #ith the om"letion of Ste" >' that your Transition -nitiative really be!ins3 The 7DA+ sets out the #ork you #ill be doin! into the future* and in theory .no-one has !ot there yet0 on e you rea h that sta!e* your Transition -nitiative han!es* and be omes* in effe t* a relo alisation a!en y* #hose 5ob it is to im"lement the 7DA+.
Chapter 1 : The first year of Transition Town Totnes

:irst> a bit of background

Totnes is a to#n in Devon #ith a "o"ulation of about )*((( "eo"le. -t has a re"utation and a history of bein! Huite an 1alternative1 to#n .one #a! #rote 1T#inned #ith 6arnia1 on one of the si!ns on the ed!e of the to#n0* a re"utation that be!an #ith the arrival of Leonard and Dorothy 7lmhirst in >I'C. She #as a #ealthy Ameri an heiress* and the t#o of them #ere sear hin! for a "la e to develo" an e%"eriment in land-based re!eneration ombinin! arts* musi and theatre. Their re!eneration of the Dartin!ton 7state ad5a ent to Totnes* the establishment of a olle!e of the arts* a #ide ran!e of rural enter"rises* and a re"utation for Dartin!ton as an international entre for the arts "ut the area on the ma"* and attra ted lots of reative and alternative "eo"le to the area. Totnes has been a hotbed of environmental a tivists for many years* bein! home to one of the most su essful anti-G& !rou"s in the ountry* as #ell as #hat #as* for some years* one of the best L7TS s hemes in the ountry. -t suffers* like many rural market to#ns in the South $est* from hi!h house "ri es* lo# #a!es and an a!ein! "o"ulation .Totnes is the to#n in the E= #ith the hi!hest "er a"ita number of "eo"le over C( livin! on their o#n0. -t has a vibrant market on Fridays and Saturdays* and a stron! ulture of lo al food. -t is unusual in that it has lar!ely mana!ed to avoid the Clone To#n Britain "henomenon* #ith an un hara teristi ally hi!h "ro"ortion of small* lo ally o#ned sho"s. - moved there from -reland in Se"tember '((B. - ould be tellin! you the stories of any of the other develo"in! Transition -nitiatives here Le#es* +en#ith* Bristol .indeed - #ill !o on to tell those stories in less detail0 - but Totnes is* in many #ays* the fla!shi" initiative* and also the one - am most familiar #ith.
Then> a bit of prehistory

$hat follo#s is an attem"t to #rite a history for a "ro5e t #hi h is very broad* diverse and dynami * and is still on!oin! and evolvin!. -n the interests of on iseness* some thin!s have been deliberately left out* and unavoidably* !iven ho# bi! it has be ome so fast* some thin!s - don1t even kno# about may have fallen throu!h* but ho"efully* this #ill !ive you an overvie# of this one to#n1s story. Transition To#n Totnes .TTT0 be!an in , tober '((B #ith a s reenin! of the film The End of #uburbia. ,ver the ne%t fe# months* fello# "eak oil edu ator 6aresh Gian!rande and -held a series of talks and film s reenin!s and be!an to net#ork #ith e%istin! !rou"s. At this sta!e the "ro ess #asn1t alled 1Transition To#n Totnes1K indeed it didn1t ome under any olle tive name until the #eek before the ,ffi ial Enleashin!. $e tried to make any events that #e ran as mu h about buildin! net#orks and relationshi"s as about vie#in! films. 4ou an see some of the tools and e%er ises #e utilised on "a!es >BA-B.
#eptember ++&
7arly in the first #eek of Se"tember* "osters be!an "o""in! u" all over Totnes advertisin! an
1Enleashin!1* no doubt leadin! to many "eo"le #onderin! #hat on earth su h a thin! mi!ht be. All #as revealed on $ednesday Cth Se"tember at the Civi Hall in Totnes* #hen the 1,ffi ial Enleashin! of Transition To#n Totnes1 took "la e. The evenin! #as attended by over @B( "eo"le* #ho "a ked the hall to hear "resentations by myself and Dr Chris :ohnstone. -t #as o"ened by the then &ayor of Totnes* +ru# Bos#ell* #ho talked enthusiasti ally about the initiative and her ho"es for its su ess. J-f this an ha""en any#here*J she told the audien e* Jit #ill be in Totnes.J - s"oke about "eak oil* #hat it is and #hy it is su h an ur!ent issue. - talked about the on e"t of ener!y des ent and of relo alisation* and told the story of the =insale 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan. - set out my vision for ho# the Totnes "ro ess mi!ht unfold* and #hat TTT1s "lans #ere for its first four months. Chris :ohnstone talked about ho# insi!hts from the addi tions field an inform ener!y des ent #ork. He ar!ued that "eak oil and limate han!e re"resent our all to "o#er* our definin! moment* and by en!a!in! #ith them* #e #ill find a !reat deal of inner resour es and stren!ths #e didn1t kno# #e had. At the end of his talk he divided the audien e into "airs and !ot them talkin! to ea h other. -n "airs they fo used for three minutes on ea h of the follo#in! Huestions2 J$hen - hear about limate han!e and "eak oil the on erns - have in lude . . .J* J&y vision for Totnes after "eak oil is . . .J* and JThe ste"s - an take to#ards this vision are . . .J After this* "eo"le #ere invited to #rite do#n their thou!hts on these Huestions* ea h on a different- oloured "ost-it note* #hi h #ere then stu k u" on the #all so "eo"le ould read them. +eo"le remarked after#ards that they really en5oyed the o""ortunity to dis uss their thou!hts* and to he# over #hat they had heard. +eo"le left the evenin! very enthusiasti about the "ro ess. -t #as desi!ned from the outset to be an histori o asion* the ni!ht that "eo"le #ould look ba k on as the start of the #hole "ro ess* and it very mu h had that feel. The Enleashin! !enerated a lot of ener!y that has really "ro"elled TTT for#ard sin e. A fe# days later #e sho#ed* for the se ond time* the film The Power of 3ommunity #hi h relates the e%"erien e that Cuba under#ent #hen it e%"erien ed its o#n oil "eak* albeit an e%ternally im"osed one* #hen the Soviet Enion olla"sed in >II(. Des"ite havin! sold out the "revious venue the first time #e sho#ed the film* #e on e a!ain filled it* #ith over >(( "eo"le and a very vi!orous dis ussion after the film. Around this time* the evenin! lass* Skillin! E" for +o#erdo#n .see "a!e >IA0 be!an for the first time. The !rou" of @B "eo"le from a ran!e of ba k!rounds be!an the ourse #hi h overed a #ide ran!e of sub5e ts* and #as desi!ned to train u" field#orkers for the "ro5e t.
;ctober ++&
, tober be!an #ith an evenin! event alled 1Feedin! Totnes* "ast* "resent and future1 held at St :ohn1s Chur h* #hi h featured* a""ro"riately* three s"eakers. The first* &ary Bartlett* !ave a fas inatin! a ount of her years as a horti ulture student at Dartin!ton in the >IC(s* and the se ond* Helena 6orber!-Hod!e from the -nternational So iety for 7 olo!y and Culture* !ave an overvie# of the dan!ers of !lobalisation* and ho# ommunities are stren!thenin! their
food e onomies around the #orld in res"onse. The last s"eaker #as Guy $atson from /iverford Farm* one of the E=1s bi!!est or!ani farm businesses* #ho talked about ho# the farm .situated lose to Totnes0 runs* and the ste"s they are takin! to make it less oilde"endent. This #as follo#ed three days later by the first TTT ,"en S"a e* on food. This #as attended by #ell over >(( "eo"le* althou!h "eo"le ame and #ent durin! the day .the "ra ti alities of ,"en S"a e are e%"lored on "a!es >C)-I0. This #as the first time #e tried to do ument an ,"en S"a e in real time on the $iki #ebsite. -t #ent very #ell* and "roved to be a very "otent tool. The day !enerated a !reat deal of net#orkin! and subseHuent "ro5e ts* su h as the Seed S#a" day* emer!ed from dis ussions on the day. ,n the >'th* +aul &obbs* author of Energy eyond !il* !ave a #ell-attended talk #hi h set out a ri h overvie# of the ener!y hallen!e fa in! the E=* #hi h #as a!ain follo#ed by an ,"en S"a e Day on ener!y. Althou!h a fe# less "eo"le ame than had attended the Food day* it #as still a vibrant and "rodu tive ,"en S"a e. ,n the 'Cth #e had a talk* arran!ed at the last minute* by or!ani !ardenin! e%"ert Bob Flo#erde#. Bob dre# a lar!e ro#d - Huite a different demo!ra"hi than "revious talks - and "assed on many insi!hts from his kno#led!e about !ardenin!. ,n , tober >Dth* the Heart and Soul !rou" had their laun h. The Heart and Soul !rou" set out to e%"lore the "sy holo!y of han!e* and identified the Huestions it aims to address as follo#s2 J$hat is it a tually like to be human* alive and a#ake at this time in the history of the "lanet* the history of humanity8 $hat is it really like to live #ithin* and inevitably be "art of* our urrent !lobal e onomi system8 $hat of our dreams and visions* fears and an!ers* !rief* "assion and ins"iration8 $hat motivates us to reatively transform ho# #e live* and eHually* #hat tends to 1shut us do#n1 and rea h for omfort instead8 Ho# are #e sha"ed by the so iety in #hi h #e live* and ho# does #hat lies #ithin us* in turn* reate the so iety #e make to!ether8 +erha"s most im"ortantly* #hat stru tures or "ro esses do #e need to reate to su""ort us in both the "ra ti al #ork ahead* and in the 1 han!e of heart1 on #hi h that #ork rests8J Their laun h evenin! #as very #ell attended* #ith sin!in!* refle tion and dis ussion* and they have !one on to be one of the best attended of the !rou"s. As their "ro!ramme of events emer!ed* other more e%"eriential thin!s #ere added* e%"lorin! a variety of different tools. Another !rou" that ki ked off around this time #as the 7ner!y !rou"* #hi h had its first meetin! in the shed at the end of a !arden* #here* Tardis-like* an e%traordinary number of "eo"le mana!ed to fit in a very small s"a e and e%"lore the ener!y as"e ts of TTT. The other !rou" that emer!ed in , tober #as the Health and &edi ine !rou"* #hose first meetin! #as a small but dynami affair* e%"lorin! #hat su h a !rou" mi!ht !o on to do.
Covember ++&
6ovember1s first event #as an evenin! about buildin!* entitled 1Buildin! Lo allyK the "otential of natural buildin! materials1. Three s"eakers dis ussed different as"e ts of buildin! and
onstru tion2 Gareth $alton introdu ed the Devon Sustainable Buildin! -nitiative* :im Carfrae dis ussed the "ro ess of buildin! the stra#-bale house he reated in Totnes* and - s"oke about the ran!e of natural buildin! materials and te hniHues. This #as follo#ed three days later by our last ,"en S"a e of '((C* entitled 1Housin! Totnes in an 7ner!y S ar e Future1 #hi h #as* a!ain* #ell attended* and !enerated a #ealth of ideas. ,n 6ovember )th* Simon Sno#den of Liver"ool Eniversity* #ho has been develo"in! the tool of ,il <ulnerability Auditin! .,<A0 made his first visit to Totnes. Simon ran a one-day #orksho" for ten lo al businesses at the South Hams Distri t Coun il offi es* outlinin! the ,<A "ro ess and the insi!hts it ould offer to businesses in terms of understandin! their de!ree of vulnerability* and therefore* risk. ,n 6ovember Ith* the TTT Arts Grou" had its laun h. A !rou" of lo al artists ame to!ether and dis ussed ho# their art "ra ti es ould inform* do ument and ins"ire the TTT "ro ess. Althou!h tryin! to !et a lot of artists to do thin!s to!ether has been likened to 1herdin! ats1* there #as an ener!y !enerated to drive for#ard this as"e t of the "ro5e t. Around this time* S huma her Colle!e hosted a remarkable ourse alled 1Life After ,il1* a t#o-#eek intensive immersion in "eak oil. ,ne of the tea hers #as David Flemin!* e onomist and ori!inator of Tradeable 7ner!y ?uotas* #ho on 6ovember Dth !ave an evenin! talk for TTT alled 1A +ra ti al Guide to 7ner!y Des ent1. To a "a ked hall* he #ove a harmin! ta"estry of sub5e ts* from "eak oil to horal musi and from arbon rationin! to $ords#orth. The Transition* he ar!ued* is as mu h about re laimin! and rebuildin! ulture as it is about solar "anels. He ran #ildly over time* and everyone loved it. The "revious evenin! he and had sat* to!ether #ith Ste"han Hardin!* on a "anel to dis uss the film %n .nconvenient Truth at the Barn Cinema* Dartin!ton. Someone asked the "anel* J$hat !ives you ho"e8J David re"lied* after some deliberation* JBa hJ. Later that #eek - visited the offi es of a lo al film "rodu tion om"any. Durin! our dis ussions about lo alisation and so on* they "rodu ed* from the #all in their offi e* a framed >)>( bank note .the buildin! used to be a bank0. -t !ot my mind ti kin! about lo al money and bank notes. Also around this time* a !rou" be!an to meet to dis uss the reation of a lo al food dire tory. -ns"ired by one "rodu ed in the Forest of Dean* they be!an to e%"lore ho# su h a Dire tory mi!ht be reated for the to#n. Another !rou" that be!an to emer!e in 6ovember #as the Lo al Government Liaison Grou"* made u" of lo al oun illors and others #ho #anted to onne t TTT #ith lo al !overnment. -n the TTT email Bulletin* they #rote2 JThe "ro"osed TTT Lo al Government Liaison sub-!rou" #ould aim to "romote the develo"ment of lo al !overnment "oli ies that #ould en oura!e and avoid hinderin! the a tion ne essary to redu e the fossil fuel de"enden y of Totnes and its environs in line #ith the "ro"osals arisin! from other sub-!rou"s and the TTT "ro ess.J They ra"idly be ame a key as"e t of the #ork of TTT. The final event of 6ovember* on the ''nd* #as a talk by /i hard Heinber! at the Civi Hall* attended by almost A(( "eo"le. +eo"le travelled from as far a#ay as Leeds to hear /i hard1s talk* #hi h #as very #ell re eived. -t #as* alon!side the Enleashin!* our lar!est event of '((C.
5ecember ++&
A lot #as startin! to ha""en around this time #ith the Totnes /ene#able 7ner!y So iety .T/7S,C0. This is a sister "ro5e t to TTT* #hi h emer!ed from the 7ner!y ,"en S"a e Day and aims to allo# lo al "eo"le to invest in rene#able ener!y infrastru ture. Also emer!in! at this time #as the 7 onomi s and Livelihoods Grou". De ember >Bth #as the first time the +ro5e t Su""ort Grou" met. A "revious attem"t at formin! a Steerin! Grou" had not really #orked* but usin! this model it #as "ossible to reate a !rou" to o-ordinate and !uide the "ro ess #hereby ea h of the #orkin! !rou"s ontributed one "erson* makin! it more dynami and vital. This settled in very #ell and has been a very effe tive de ision-makin! tool.
=anuary ++(
The first event that #e ran in :anuary #as a trainin! day #ith Andy Lan!ford and Liora Adler of Gaia Eniversity* on the theme of Desi!nin! +rodu tive &eetin!s. -t had be ome lear as "eo"le ame for#ard to fa ilitate the various TTT !rou"s that* althou!h they all have a !reat deal of enthusiasm and "assion for the #ork* they may not ne essarily have the skills in terms of fa ilitatin! meetin!s* onfli t resolution and so on. This #orksho" brou!ht to!ether these various !rou" fa ilitators for a very useful day e%"lorin! these skills. ,n the >Dth* #e hosted a talk by +eter /ussell alled 1$akin! E" in Time1. -t #as the bi!!est ro#d #e had yet dra#n to St :ohn1s Chur h* nearly @(( "eo"le. +eter talked about the im"ortan e of ons iousness in the Transition* somethin! #e hadn1t tou hed on yet. Sunday ')th #as 1Seedy Sunday1* the TTT seed e% han!e* #ith hundreds of "eo"le brin!in! out seeds - the #eird* the #onderful and the heirloom - to s#a" #ith other "eo"le. The day also in luded talks and demonstrations* and #as a very ener!eti event. TTT also* at this time* !ot its first mention in the national "ress. The Guardian1s 7 o-Soundin! se tion ran a brief "ie e as follo#s2 JThe idea of Totnes* Devon* runnin! out of oil on5ures ima!es of matrons hit h-hikin! to 7%eter and retired ha"s ookin! on o"en fires* but the to#n is deadly serious about "rodu in! lo al food as and #hen the bla k stuff runs out. -t has no# de lared itself Britain1s first 1transition1 to#n* and "erma ulture !uru /ob Ho"kins is dra#in! u" a 'B-year "lan to see ho# Totnes ould su""ort itself #ithout oil. There have been meetin!s about ho# food and ener!y ould be "rodu ed lo ally* but the "lan is to set u" a lo al ener!y om"any* re#rite the lo al develo"ment "lan and "ersuade others to 5oin the movement. -t must be #orkin!. Stroud in Glou estershire and Le#es* 7ast Susse%* have 5ust 5oined.J
:ebruary ++(
The Transition "ro ess in Totnes ontinued to dee"en* #ith the +ro5e t Su""ort !rou" meetin!s !oin! #ell* ontinuin! to e%"lore stru ture and so on. Durin! February* S huma her
Colle!e ran a three-#eek ourse on limate han!e* #ith some e% ellent s"eakers. $e borro#ed some of them for some "ubli events that #e o-"resented #ith South Hams Friends of the 7arth* S huma her Colle!e and T/7S,C. The first of these #as Aubrey &eyer* the reator of 1Contra tion and Conver!en e1* and the se ond #as by Tony :uni"er* the dire tor of Friends of the 7arth. Both #ere very #ell attended. $hile Tony #as at S huma her Colle!e* he also "arti i"ated in an event that had been or!anised by the Lo al Government Liaison !rou"* a $orld CafZ_ day for lo al oun illors. $orld CafZ_ is similar to ,"en S"a e* but it an be more !uided* less haoti * and self-or!anisin! .you an read ho# to run a $orld CafZ_ event on "a!es >)A-C0. The event #as attended by '@ oun illors* from "arish* to#n and distri t levels* as #ell as by the lo al &+* Anthony Steen. The event be!an by e%"lainin! "eak oil and limate han!e* and then su!!estin! that* at "resent* lo al !overnment de ision-makin! is based on the assum"tions that oil "ri es #ill remain lo# for the foreseeable future* that limate han!e #on1t im"a t for some time* and that the move a#ay from "eo"le doin! thin!s for themselves #ill ontinue indefinitely. $e asked #hat their for#ard "lannin! mi!ht look like if those #eren1t the assum"tions. A #ealth of thou!hts #ere !enerated* on sub5e ts as diverse as tourism* "lannin!* trans"ort and the e onomy. -t #as done usin! Chatham House /ules* meanin! that #hat is said in the meetin! an be ited outside* but is not attributable to any individual. A fe# days later* the first Totnes +ound .of #hi h more later0 #ent to the "rinters* desi!ned #ith one side bein! a fa simile of the >)>( Totnes banknote - had seen han!in! in the old bank three months "reviously. T#o other notable events in February #ere the Heart and Soul ,"en S"a e Day* e%"lorin! all the different elements of this as"e t of TTT* #hi h #as very #ell attended and did a !reat deal to sha"e and inform the #ork of that !rou"* and also the first meetin! of the Transition Tales !rou". 4ou an read more about the #ork of this as"e t of TTT on "a!es '((->.
.arch ++(
7arly &ar h #as a Totnes +ound fren;y* tryin! to !et the notes "rinted and ready for their laun h on &ar h Dth. -n the short amount of time available* ei!hteen sho"s #ere si!ned u" for the s heme* and the notes #ere desi!ned and "rinted. The first note #as !iven to Totnes &useum* and the ne%t ones to the members of Totnes To#n Coun il. The Coun il had invited me to s"eak to them about TTT* to brin! them u" to s"eed #ith "ro!ress. At the end of my talk - told them that althou!h - didn1t make a habit of !ivin! money in bro#n envelo"es to Coun illors* for them - #ould make an e% e"tion .the notes had ome from the "rinters #ra""ed in bro#n "a"er0* and "ro eeded to !ive them ea h one of the first Totnes +ounds. Follo#in! the meetin!* the Coun il voted unanimously to endorse the #ork of TTT* #hi h #as a !reat boost to the "ro5e t. The notes themselves #ere laun hed at an event alled 1Lo al &oney* Lo al Skills* Lo al +o#er1 held on &ar h Dth* #hi h also in luded a talk by &olly S ott Cato of !aiane onomi s.or!* an e onomist and member of the nas ent Transition Stroud "ro5e t. The
+ound !ot some !reat "ubli ity* our lo al &+ Anthony Steen bein! "hoto!ra"hed brandishin! fistfuls of notes. This #as then follo#ed by an ,"en S"a e Day on e onomi s* #hi h !enerated lots of ideas about the role of the +ound* alon!side other tools su h as L7TS* Time Banks and Credit Enions. Also in &ar h #e or!anised a tree-"lantin! on <ire -sland in the entre of Totnes* to "lant five almond trees and t#o #alnuts. The then-&ayor* +ru# Bos#ell ame do#n and "lanted one of them* and #e !ot some !reat "hotos in the "a"er to laun h our 1Totnes* the 6ut Tree Ca"ital of Britain1 initiative. The ne%t talk in our series of events #as by :erry &ander* one of the o-founders of the -nternational Forum on Globalisation. His talk #as alled 1At the end of the era of !lobalisation2 turnin! a!ain to the lo al1. He !ave a very thorou!h overvie# of !lobalisation and #hy its life-s"an is limited* and the "otential of a more lo alised future.
*pril ++(
,n A"ril Bth* TTT "resented* at the Barn Cinema in Dartin!ton* the South-$est "remiYere of the film % 3rude %wa0ening. The evenin! #as a sell-out* and the film* an e% ellent motion "i ture #hi h does for "eak oil #hat %n .nconvenient Truth does for limate han!e* #as very #ell re eived. -t #as follo#ed by a dis ussion #ith a "anel of lo al "eo"le #ith an interest in the sub5e t. ,n A"ril >'th* one of the most dynami !rou"s to emer!e from the TTT Arts !rou"* the Sustainable &akers +ro5e t* had its first meetin!. -t brou!ht to!ether a olle tion of rafts"eo"le from a ran!e of dis i"lines* to look at ho# best to su""ort the on e"t of useful rafts made lo ally. ,n the >Ith* - had a very odd all from a re"orter in &e%i o* #ho had someho# heard about TTT and #anted to #rite a "ie e about it. Ho#ever* her main Huestion* to #hi h she ke"t returnin!* #as2 JSo* to #hat e%tent is Transition To#ns like :ohn Lennon1s 1-ma!ine18J - mean* ho# #ould you ans#er that8 -t led to a bemusin! "ie e in the &e%i an "a"er* and a rather amusin! "ie e in the Totnes Times .see belo#0. ,n A"ril ''nd* TTT ran its first Transition Tales event. The idea #as to brin! to!ether storytellers and #riters* as #ell as anyone #ith reative ur!es* to be!in to tell stories around different "oints in the to#n1s transition. -n order to do this* a fe# days in advan e of the event a fe# of us reated a 1timeline1* a hronolo!y of the ne%t 'B years* #ith key events su h as oil "eak in '(>(* arbon rationin! bein! introdu ed in '(>' and the first ar "ark bein! returned to bein! a market !arden in '(>B* amon! other thin!s. +eo"le #ere then invited to #rite ne#s"a"er arti les from any "oint alon! the timeline. The event !enerated some hilarious and also some rather tou hin! stories. $e !i!!led a lot to!ether #hilst* - sus"e t* also e%"lorin! some Huite intense ideas and "ossibilities. A ou"le of days later* as "art of the Transition Tales -nitiative* #e hosted an afternoon event at S huma her Colle!e for tea hers* to ask for their thou!hts on the Transition Tales "ro5e t so far* and to e%"lore #ith them ho# it mi!ht fit in #ith their #ork in s hools. Both "rimary and se ondary s hools #ere re"resented* and the dis ussions #ere very valuable in sha"in! the
subseHuent #ork. Around the end of A"ril* TTT "resented Totnes Library #ith over ]P>*B(( #orth of books* #hi h had been individually s"onsored by lo al sho"s and individuals* as #ell as some D<Ds* #hi h an be rented for free from the lo al D<D sho". The end of A"ril also sa#* after some delay* the be!innin! of the TTT Buildin! and Housin! !rou". Their first meetin!* #hi h #as very #ell attended* #as basi ally a 1!ettin! to kno# ea h other1 meetin!* and also !ot the !rou" startin! to think about #hat it mi!ht like to do.
.ay ++(
,n &ay >st* TTT ran a 1Business S#a" Sho"1 on Totnes -ndustrial 7state* #hi h #as the first su h #orksho"* !ettin! !rou"s of businesses to!ether to look at #hat they need and #hat they thro# out* based on the "rin i"le that one "erson1s #aste is another1s ra# material. A diversity of businesses ame to!ether* and found that there #ere indeed a lot of onne tions that ould be made. That #eek* thanks to the kindness of a lo al resident #ho offered to fund some as"e ts of TTT* #e #ere able to advertise our first "aid "ost. =eith 7llis from &ovin! Sounds and Transition To#n Le#es ame to Totnes to run a one-day ourse on makin! short films usin! a di!ital amera and a la"to" and "ostin! them on 4ouTube. ,ne of our only disa""ointments #ith the TTT "ro ess u" to this "oint #as that noone had been do umentin! it on film. Several "rodu tion om"anies had #anted to* but had* for one reason or another* been unable to attra t fundin!* or #anted to take an an!le on it that #e #ere unha""y #ith* so all #e had #ere "hotos and notes. The beauty #ith =eith1s a""roa h is that it makes it very "ossible to reate short films to do ument different as"e ts of TTT1s #ork. The ourse "rodu ed four short films and #as !reat fun. 4ou an see some of #hat they "rodu ed by !oin! to 4ouTube and sear hin! for Transition To#n Totnes. ,n &ay )th* international "erma ulture tea her +enny Livin!ston-Stark ame to Totnes* as "art of a ourse at S huma her Colle!e* and #e "ut her on to s"eak as "art of our "ro!ramme* an evenin! alled 1+erma ulture2 desi!nin! for transition1. Her ideas about the "o#er of "erma ulture as a desi!n tool for "ostarbon so ieties #ere very insi!htful. ,n the >Bth* an evenin! meetin! #as held in Totnes alled 1Funny &oney2 #here ne%t for the Totnes +ound81* #hi h e%"lored the "ossibilities of a se ond "hase. -t dre# a lot of "eo"le to!ether to e%"lore the "ossibilities of an enlar!ed s heme* and also brou!ht out a number of ne# volunteers for the "ro5e t. The first s heme still had a ou"le of #eeks to run* but they #anted to look beyond it to #hat mi!ht follo# it. The ne%t bi! evenin! talk #as on the '@rd* and e%"lored 16e# Strate!ies for Xero 7ner!y Housin!1. The s"eakers #ere Bob Tomlinson of the Livin! <illa!es Trust and Bill Dunster* the desi!ner of BedXed in London. The evenin! #as very #ell attended and !enerated a lot of dis ussion around #hat mi!ht be a""ro"riate strate!ies for Totnes. ,n the 'Cth #e held the 1Totnes* 6ut Tree Ca"ital of Britain* Desi!n Day1. Si%teen "eo"le ame to!ether to e%"lore #here in Totnes mi!ht be most a""ro"riate for nut-"lantin!s. A ou"le of s"eakers o"ened the day2 &artin Cra#ford from the A!roforestry /esear h Trust #as one of them* and he e%"lained that #alnuts #ere not a !ood hoi e for urban tree
"lantin!s* unless you #anted a ma5or on!oin! sHuirrel ull3 He su!!ested s#eet hestnut and heartnuts as better hoi es. The !rou" s"lit into t#o* and armed #ith ma"s* 1surveyed1 the entre of Totnes lookin! for !ood s"ots. &ay @>st #as the last day of the first Totnes +ound s heme. The sho"s #ere intervie#ed* the last notes !athered in* and an avalan he of media overa!e #as dealt #ith. BBC Devon ne#s ran a !reat "ie e on it* and the overa!e rea hed the "a!es of the Daily 7irror* and even the uenos %ires /erald .maintainin! our levels of South Ameri an overa!e30 4ou an read more about the +ound belo#.
=une ++(
The ne%t event on the "ro!ramme #as a talk by Andre# Simms and 6i &arks of the 6e# 7 onomi s Foundation* alled 1The 6e# 7 onomi s* from !ro#th to #ellbein!1. Andre#1s talk fo used on the hallen!e of limate han!e* and 6i looked at the on e"t of Ha""iness -ndi ators* ne# #ays of lookin! at "ro!ress* and ho# des"ite in reasin! national #ealth* our sense of ho# ha""y #e are has fallen steadily sin e the >ID(s. ,n the >>th* t#o of our bi!!est events thus far took "la e in the Great Hall at Dartin!ton. The first ran durin! the day and #as alled 17states in Transition1. The idea #as that for a to#n like Totnes to e%"lore the "ra ti alities of Transition is fairly futile #ithout the re-en!a!ement of the land surroundin! the to#n. Histori ally there #ould have been a lot more links than there are no#. 7state mana!ers* trustees and C7,s #ere invited from a ross the South-#est* and the day featured a mi%ture of "resentations by "eo"le su h as David Fur;edon* head of the Country Lando#ners Asso iation* Chris Skrebo#ski* editor of Petroleum Review* solar e%"ert :eremy Le!!ett* +atri k Holden of the Soil Asso iation and myself* and ,"en S"a e-style !rou" dis ussions. The day #as a very "o#erful e%"loration of the issues* and introdu ed the #ork of TTT and the on e"ts under"innin! it to a #ide ran!e of "eo"le. That evenin!* also in the Great Hall* #as an evenin! alled 1Food and Farmin! in Transition1* #hi h made some of the key s"eakers from the day available to the "ubli . The s"eakers #ere Chris Skrebo#ski* :eremy Le!!ett* +atri k Holden and <andana Shiva. The evenin! sold out the Great Hall* #ith nearly @(( "eo"le* and more turned a#ay. -t #as an ener!isin! e%"loration of the im"a ts "eak oil and limate han!e ould have on a!ri ulture* and a look at #hat a!ri ulture may !o on to look like. Durin! this time* "lans #ere also afoot for the se ond release of Totnes +ounds. Dra#in! from the observations from the first one* the se ond one #ould be more available* smaller and more "lentiful. The desi!n #ork #as om"leted* and they #ent to "ress at the lo al "rinter* in or"oratin! a number of lever se urity features on ea h note. They #ere laun hed on the '(th .in fa t they #ere laun hed three times0. The first laun h of the Totnes +ound #as at the relaun h of the Totnes Chamber of Commer e .one of the s"onsors of the notes0* in #hi h TTT featured heavily. Then* later that evenin!* the +ound #as also laun hed at a talk at S huma her Colle!e by e onomist $olf!an! Sa hs. +arti ularly at the S huma her talk* there #as a hu!e amount of enthusiasm for the "ro5e t* and #hen - #ent home after#ards my head #as bu;;in! #ith the "otential of the #hole thin!* to the "oint #here - a tually found it hard to !et to slee". T#o days later* the +ound had its final laun h alon!side the laun h of the Totnes Lo al Food
Dire tory* #hi h had emer!ed from the hard #ork of the food dire tory !rou"* "ublished under the headin! 1A Celebration of Lo al Food1. -t ombined the Dire tory itself* arti les* re i"es and #ork by lo al artists. The laun h #as "ossibly the #ettest day of the year u" to that "oint .:une '((D #as the #ettest on re ord0* in a rain-s#e"t Civi SHuare. The To#n Crier o"ened the "ro eedin!s* and then the ne# &ayor of Totnes s"oke about the need for more lo al food and offi ially laun hed the Dire tory and the +ound. There #ere also talks about the +ound and the Dire tory* follo#ed by a s"e ially om"osed son! about lo al food by a lo al hoir !rou". The !rou" then s"ent the rest of the day !ivin! out food dire tories on the Hi!h Street. That #eek also featured the laun h by the Heart and Soul !rou" of the Home Grou"s* an initiative #hi h ould "otentially "lay a bi! role in the future evolution of TTT. The Home Grou"s on e"t is e%"lored in more detail belo#* but the evenin! #as very "ositively re eived* #ith t#o ne# !rou"s formin!* and one that #as already u" and runnin! sharin! its e%"erien e of ho# hel"ful they had found the "ro ess. :uly finished #ith a team from /adio S otland omin! do#n to intervie# many of the key "eo"le in TTT for a lon! "ie e they #anted to do on the Transition idea. The last im"ortant develo"ment to take "la e in late :une #as the ,il <ulnerability Auditin! trainin! run by Simon Sno#den in Totnes. As already mentioned* #e had been "lannin! this trainin! for some time* and si%teen "eo"le undertook Simon1s t#o-day trainin!. The trainin! #ent very #ell* and some of those #ho undertook it #ill !o on to do three "ilot audits in :uly. TTT is the first !rou" to run trainin! in this a""roa h.
=uly ++(
:uly o"ened #ith our lo al &+* Anthony Steen* #ritin! his monthly olumn in the lo al "ress about TTT* "eak oil and relo alisation. -n it* he mused2 J$hen hea" oil is no lon!er* #hat #ill ha""en to our lifestyle8 $ith limate han!e leadin! the !lobal a tion a!enda* #e must no# onsider 1Life after ,il1. Could less oil result in a renaissan e of British a!ri ulture* and e%"ansion of small businesses8 Could "eak oil hel" han!e attitudes and rebuild 1so ial a"ital1 by brin!in! "eo"le and dis"arate !rou"s to!ether* united in ta klin! a ommon #orld "roblem8J S"eakers for TTT durin! :uly in luded Alastair & -ntosh* author of #oul and #oil* #ho dis ussed land reform in the onte%t of Celti s"irituality* and &arianne $illiamson* #ho added a s"iritual dimension. As "art of TTT1s "ost-:ohn Croft de ision to #eave more elebration into its daily fabri * #e held the TTT Summer +i ni by the /iver Dart on a very "leasant summer evenin! .the same evenin! in fa t that most of the &idlands #ere disa""earin! under #ater in the heaviest rain on re ord0. Food* onversation and rounders #ent on late into the ni!ht. ,n :uly >Ith* at Bo#den House near Totnes* the TTT -nternational 4outh &usi Festival* #hi h brou!ht to!ether students .mostly from S"ain0 #ho #ere studyin! at the Totnes S hool of 7n!lish and lo al kids for an evenin! of musi * ir us skills and other entertainment. The theme of the evenin! #as TTT* and they had "ainted a !lorious day-!lo banner of the TTT lo!o. The evenin! #as solar-"o#ered* and #as as mu h a ultural e% han!e as a "arty.
The last day of :uly #as very s"e ial. After #eeks of le!al t- rossin! and i-dottin!* TTT finally had its o#n offi e for the first time. The :uly @>st meetin! #as the first #e had thereK it felt !ood to have "ut do#n roots in the entre of the to#n.
*ugust ++(
Au!ust is the month #here #e try to take a break* and in the main* a"art from or!anisin! the ne%t "ro!ramme of events* #e mana!ed to a hieve this. ,ne of the fe# thin!s that ha""ened #as the broad ast on BBC /adio S otland of the item re orded a month or so "reviously in Totnes. The resultant "ie e #as one of the best "ie es of media anyone had yet "ut to!ether about TTT. -t #as follo#ed by a "hone-in* #here "retty mu h everyone #ho ran! in said they thou!ht it #as a #onderful idea* or that they #ere already under#ay in their ommunities startin! a Transition -nitiative.
#eptember ++(
-t #as heartenin! to dis over early in Se"tember that* a ordin! to the Style &a!a;ine in the #unday Times* J ommunity s"irit is ba k in fashionJ. An arti le alled 1Love Thy 6ei!hbour1 talked to Dun an La# of Transition Bri%ton and elebrated the fa t that a tually talkin! to your nei!hbours is the ne# Gu i. ,n Thursday Cth Se"tember* a year to the day after its ,ffi ial Enleashin!* Transition To#n Totnes elebrated its first birthday at the /oyal Seven Stars Hotel in Totnes. The sell-out event #as an o""ortunity to refle t u"on the a hievements of the "revious year and to look ahead to #here TTT mi!ht !o ne%t. -t #as a !reat e%am"le of :ohn Croft1s e%hortation that Transition -nitiatives should elebrate as often as "ossible. The evenin! #as a deli!htful elebration of the year* #ith !ood food* musi * dan in! and lau!hter. -t #as a fittin! lose to a Huite e%traordinary year* and a fittin! be!innin! to the ne%t one. The first talk of the ne# "ro!ramme #as an evenin! alled 1/edesi!nin! our to#ns and ities for life beyond the ar1* #hi h featured talks by Herbert Girardet and +eter Li"man. A da;;lin! array of ideas #as "ut for#ard for ho# a to#n like Totnes ould break its love affair #ith the ar. This #as follo#ed by an ,"en S"a e day on trans"ort* #hi h ame u" #ith some !ood ideas. As Se"tember dra#s to a lose* the first ste"s are bein! taken to#ards the reation of an 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan for the to#n and TTT is a key "layer in a oalition bein! formed to develo" the site of Dairy Crest* "reviously the to#n1s foremost em"loyer* #hi h has no# losed #ith the loss of >C( 5obs. The Totnes +ound ontinues to be #idely used* #e are in dis ussions #ith a lo al develo"er about 1transitionin!1 a ma5or housin! develo"ment in the to#n* TTT made a ma5or submission to the Lo al Develo"ment Frame#ork #hen it ame u" for revie#* and the Totnes /ene#able 7ner!y So iety laun hed in early 6ovember. Transition Tales #ill be #orkin! #ith a lar!er !rou" of kids at =7<-CC S hool and is e%"andin! into other areas* su h as #orkin! #ith the lo al art olle!e !ettin! them omin! u" #ith some Transition Tales. The "ro!ramme for '(() is fo usin! mu h more on "ra ti al "ro5e ts* and
#e are also runnin! a five-minute film om"etition on the theme of 1Totnes in '(@(1.
Chapter 1!: The viral speed of the Transition concept

/unnin! alon!side the unfoldin! of the Transition "ro ess in Totnes and =insale #as a ra"id take-u" of the idea. $ithin #eeks of the Enleashin! other "la es #ere !ettin! in tou h to ask #hat #e #ere doin!* and soon this had be ome a viral "henomenon. Some of the key events alon! the #ay in luded2
1,ne +lanet A!ri ulture1* the :anuary '((D Soil Asso iation onferen e in Cardiff #hi h #as fo used on "eak oil and relo alisation* and "roved to be their most "o"ular ever a talk in Lam"eter in #est $ales* or!anised by the $est $ales Soil Asso iation* #hi h raised the idea of Transition To#n Lam"eter and #as attended by over A(( "eo"le. -t has sin e !one on to be the atalyst for a lot of the to#ns surroundin! Lam"eter to start their o#n Transition "ro esses* #ith Lam"eter as the hub lots of media overa!e* in ludin! -T6 6e#s* The =uardian* a #hole "ro!ramme on BBC $ales and also an e% ellent "ie e on BBC /adio S otland. the ,ffi ial Enleashin! of Transition To#n Le#es* #hi h took "la e in the To#n Hall* #as attended by about AB( "eo"le and #hi h as #ell as Enleashin! the Le#es "ro ess* tri!!ered other similar "ro5e ts in surroundin! ommunities a meetin! #ith +rin e Charles at his Food and Farmin! Summer S hool at Hi!h!rove and !ivin! him a Totnes +ound.
Sin e Transition To#n Totnes Enleashed* the Transition model has been taken u" by ommunities all over the E= and in reasin!ly beyond. The demand be ame su h that #e set u" an or!anisation alled The Transition 6et#ork to most effe tively su""ort them .see A""endi% B0. The Transition model is a sim"le one* and ea h ommunity that !ets involved is ontributin! valuable resear h as to #hat #orks and #hat doesn1t* and ho# the model needs to be ada"ted for different s ales* settin!s and ultures. $hat follo#s is a sna"shot of seven Transition -nitiatives on a ran!e of s ales* in the order in #hi h they emer!ed* to !ive you a feel for ho# this idea is bein! inter"reted in different "la es. -t is im"ortant to remember that at the time of #ritin!* the most advan ed of these has only been !oin! for 5ust over ei!hteen months.
Transition Penwith
+en#ith is not a to#n or a ity but a "eninsula* the #esternmost distri t on the E= mainland. -t has a "o"ulation of C@*(((* but !iven the land area of +en#ith* this means that overall the
density is only '.(D "eo"le "er he tare. &ost of those live in urban entres* but there are many small s attered rural ommunities too. Transition +en#ith .T+0 ame about #hen :ennifer Gray attended a small informal think-tank meetin! #ith myself and a fe# others to look at various as"e ts of the Transition "ro ess. This #as "rior to the Enleashin! of TTT* and :ennifer felt that #hat seemed to be emer!in! in Totnes ould also #ork in +en#ith. -t then trans"ired that /i hard Heinber! #ould be in the ountry soon* and the idea #as born that Transition +en#ith #ould start #ith #hat :ennifer alled a 1Bi! Ban!1* rather than #ith the a#areness-raisin! sta!e. -n the run u" to Heinber!1s talk a lot of time and ener!y #ent into "ubli ity and into invitin! many "eo"le from all as"e ts of the ommunity and a ran!e of or!anisations. -n the end over A(( "eo"le turned u"* in ludin! the area1s &+ and the To#n &ayors from +en;an e* St :ust* Hayle and St -ves. The event reated a hu!e #ave of interest. :ennifer talks of the bu;; it reated* about ho# #alkin! do#n the street for a ou"le of #eeks after#ards everyone #as talkin! about the evenin!* about Transition +en#ith and about the im"li ations of the talk. T+1s first "ro!ramme #as modelled Huite losely on the TTT "ro!ramme* and also ado"ted the same desi!n tem"late. -t in luded talks by David Flemin! and myself amon! others* and also film s reenin!s su h as The End of #uburbia and The Power of 3ommunity* all fa ilitated in the #ay set out on "a!e >BA. $orkin! !rou"s be!an to emer!e s"ontaneously* and a lar!e number of "artnershi"s #ere formed #ith a #ide ran!e of !rou"s. These "artnershi"s #ere im"ortant in not du"li atin! #ork already bein! done else#here and also in bein! "art of the strate!i frame#ork in the area. Transition +en#ith have sin e or!anised many events #ith these "artnershi" or!anisations. Some of the "ra ti al "ro5e ts that have emer!ed from the T+ #orkin! !rou"s in lude2

A study lookin! at ener!y usa!e and reHuirements for the area as a #hole Transition 7ner!y Tours - tours of lo al rene#able ener!y installations 1Chutney /ules1 - home-based reskillin! #orksho"s* doin! thin!s like buildin! a #orm bin* installin! a solar "anel* makin! a raised ve!etable bed* and so on #orksho"s on a ran!e of skills su h as om"ost toilet buildin! a '(-#eek ourse in rene#able ener!y skills a Transition /oadsho# reated by the 7du ation Grou" to take around villa!e halls and s hools in the more outlyin! areas of +en#ith
Transition +en#ith has a ted as a atalyst* alon! #ith Transition Falmouth* for the many emer!in! Transition -nitiatives in Corn#all. They are endorsed by the lo al Distri t Coun il* #ho have ome on board as "artners and #ho "rovide resour es su h as meetin! s"a es and audio-visual eHui"ment. http6>>www$transitionpenwith$com
Transition :almouth
At the +erma ulture Conver!en e in Dorset in '((C* Lorely Lloyd heard a "resentation - !ave about "eak oil and the Transition on e"t* and had her 1"eak oil moment1. She #ent home to Falmouth* #here she #as a To#n Coun illor* and thou!ht about it all for three #eeks until at a onservation event in the to#n she be!an headhuntin! "eo"le to form a steerin! !rou" for #hat #ould be ome Transition Falmouth. -n , tober - #ent to Falmouth and !ave a talk to the fled!lin! !rou" in the To#n Coun il hambers. Those attendin! ran!ed from a >@-year-old boy to the To#n Clerk and the To#n Centre &ana!er* and the talk !ave them an overvie# of the #hat* #hy and ho# of the Transition a""roa h. After the talk there #ere meetin!s every t#o #eeks* talks* films or dis ussions. There #as also a +o#erdo#n Christmas "arty* and a number of #orkin! !rou"s be!an to form. ,ne of the key areas of Transition Falmouth1s .TF0 #ork has been in buildin! "artnershi"s. They have made strate!i "artnershi"s #ith Friends of the 7arth* the To#n Centre Forum* the To#n Coun il* Falmouth Green Centre and many other !rou"s. ,ne of the key a hievements from their "artnershi"-for!in! has been the develo"ment of an inte!rated trans"ort "a ka!e for the to#n entre* in ludin! the "edestrianisation of the Hi!h Street. The Transition a""roa h of embeddin! "eak oil and limate han!e and lookin! for ommon !round mana!ed to dra# to!ether "reviously dis"arate !rou"s to "rodu e im"ortant lo al a tion. Some of the "ra ti al "ro5e ts that have emer!ed from TF in lude2
1Darnit1 - an arts and rafts !rou" #hi h brin!s "eo"le to!ether to learn9share knittin!* se#in! and other raft skills The be!innin!s of a move to make Falmouth "lasti -ba! free A food !rou"* #hose first event #as Seedy Saturday - a seed-e% han!e day Su""ortin! Falmouth S hool to be ome an 17 o-S hool1
$ith their lo al Arts Centre sho#in! the film %3rude %wa0ening and Falmouth Eniversity Colle!e startin! to do more talks on issues relatin! to Transition* TF is movin! a#ay from or!anisin! "ro!rammes of events and is able to fo us more on "ra ti al "ro5e ts. There are also "lans* in "artnershi" #ith the To#n Coun il* the Allotment Asso iation and Falmouth Green Centre to reate a Sustainability Centre* #hi h #ould host edu ation* reskillin! and ommunity develo"ment a tivities. They are also a""lyin! for fundin! for edible "ath#ays throu!hout the area. /efle tin! on the first year of Transition Falmouth* Lorely says2 JAs a tourism and do k-based to#n #ith a hi!h elderly and student "o"ulation #e are findin! it Huite a hallen!e to en!a!e the ma5ority of "eo"le* but Transition is an e% ellent "e! for all kinds of !rou"s and individuals to han! their ho"es for the future. $e are steadily formin! a diverse and ommitted team #ho are establishin! "ro5e ts and "artnershi"s to suit all #ho #ish to 5oin us in #orkin! to#ards our resilient ommunity. $orkin! #ith other lo al Transition -nitiatives is "rovin! e% ellent.J
Transition Town 6ewes

Le#es in Susse% #as one of the first Transition -nitiatives to !et under#ay. They have modelled their a""roa h very mu h on that of Totnes* and have also ins"ired other emer!in! -nitiatives in the area. Transition To#n Le#es .TTL0 be!an #hen Adrienne Cam"bell heard from a friend about the Totnes Enleashin!. -ns"ired* she and others set u" a steerin! !rou" and TTL #as born. The first "ro!ramme of events they did #as alled 17ner!y Transition Comes to Le#es1* and it in luded talks by :eremy Le!!ett and Caroline Lu as* as #ell as fa ilitated s reenin!s of The End of #uburbia and The Power of 3ommunity. This led on to the ,ffi ial Enleashin! .makin! Le#es the third -nitiative to do so0 on A"ril 'Ath '((D. ,ver A(( "eo"le ame* the To#n Coun il finished their re!ular meetin! early so they ould attend* and the venue #as also filled #ith stalls of other lo al !rou"s. After an introdu tion from the &ayor* - s"oke* follo#ed by Dr Chris :ohnstone. The event #as very ener!isin!* #ith lots of enthusiasm about the future. Follo#in! the Enleashin!* Transition To#n Le#es has been very busy. They have run ,"en S"a e days .see "".>C)-I0 on food* housin!* ener!y and their 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan* as #ell as a full "ro!ramme of talks* film s reenin!s and events* in ludin! Slo# Food feasts and a very busy Great /eskillin! "ro!ramme. 6ot ontent #ith the above* TTL has also atalysed a number of interestin! "ro5e ts. These in lude2

$ork in lo al s hools 1Heat your !reens1* a lo al solar "anel `abbuyers1 lub 1Gro# your o#n ve!etables1* a series of "ra ti al #orksho"s The Le#es Community Ba! - a loth sho""in! ba!* "rinted #ith 1Love Le#es* Sho" Lo al1 on one side* and the lo!os of t#enty lo al sho"s on the other* "rodu ed as a limited edition of >*(((.
There are a number of other s hemes in the "i"eline too. These in lude the Le#es +ound* a ar lub* somethin! alled the 1Book Crossin! of TT Books1* #hi h is about leavin! books in "ubli "la es to read and then "ass on* the ma""in! of e%istin! or hards and reation of a forest !arden* and the reation of ,<7SCo .a ommunity o#ned ener!y om"any for the ,use <alley Biore!ion0. Althou!h it #asn1t the very first Transition -nitiative* TTL has a fe# 1firsts1 under its belt. ,ne is that it is the first to really im"lement Ste" > of the T#elve Ste"s of Transition* 1Form a Steerin! Grou" and desi!n its demise from the outset1 .".>A)0. Havin! formed a dedi ated !rou" of "eo"le #ho had navi!ated the "ro5e t throu!h the first fe# ste"s* it #as de ided to #ra" u" the !rou" and hand the "ro5e t over to re"resentatives of ea h of the $orkin! Grou"s. This #as by all a ounts not an easy "ro ess2 for those #ho had been there from the start it
reHuired a !reat deal of lettin! !o and trust that it #ould #ork. Ho#ever* on refle tion* it is seen to have been a useful "ro ess. Adrienne des ribes it thus2 JA do;en "eo"le #illin! to form #orkin! !rou"s had emer!ed from the Enleashin! and the ore !rou" started to dis uss our demise. Fortunately* some "rofessional 1fa ilitators of han!e1 turned u" #ho invited the !rou" onta ts to reate a ne# set of aims and "rin i"les. -f a""lied #ith res"onsibility and o"enness* these em"o#er the #orkin! !rou"s to #ork autonomously. ,ur demise #as a "ainful "ro ess for me* a kind of "aradi!m shift* that reHuired a !ood deal of trust. Some of the ori!inal ore !rou" has left TTL* and some of the !rou"s are stru!!lin!* but - feel the overhaul #as ne essary to allo# Transition To#n Le#es to really fly. There1s al#ays been a reative tension bet#een "eo"le #ho are more motivated by either "eak oil or limate han!e issues. There1s also a dynami bet#een the am"ai!nin! ty"es for han!e no# - and the 7ner!y Des ent "lannin!9"erma ulture a""roa h. $e1re havin! an on!oin! dis ussion about ho# diver!ent our attitudes an be* and #hether even an assum"tion of 1life #ith less oil1 is a !iven. And if not* #hat is the transition #e are makin!8 The ba k!round !lobal onte%t of ontinuous !ro#th and erosion* "lus the la k of a lan!ua!e to des ribe the inevitable "aradi!m shift* makes this #hole ommunity-buildin! enHuiry ri h* s ary* ins"irin! and surreal all at the same time.J http6>>www$transitiontowns$org>Lewes
Transition ;ttery #t .ary

This initiative be!an #ith Sara Dre# attendin! a talk by +eter /ussell in :anuary '((D* "resented as "art of the Transition To#n Totnes "ro!ramme. J- felt the ener!y at the event* and thou!ht 1#o#31. Here at last #as a vehi le that #as "ositive rather than ne!ative* and #asn1t about fallin! into a "it of des"air3J She #ent home and #rote a letter to the lo al "a"er* #hi h ran as follo#s2 J- live in ,ttery St &ary and have s"ent a lot of time refle tin! on the state of the "lanet* and the omin! risis of resour es - es"e ially oil. For instan e* #e onsume si% barrels of oil for every one #e "rodu e3 +ut that #ith arbon emissions* meltin! i e a"s and runa#ay limate han!e and it is easy to feel #e are on the ed!e of an abyss #hi h is !oin! to laim us all. The system is om"letely unsustainable. Ho#ever* - re ently attended a talk in Totnes #here the ommunity is omin! to!ether to develo" "ra ti al #ays of doin! somethin! about all of this in their o#n ba kyard. Their "ro5e t is alled Transition To#n Totnes and is all about develo"in! hi!hly lo al #ays of redu in! ener!y onsum"tion* buildin! a better ommunity and takin! har!e of their o#n lives to o"e su essfully in a #orld after oil - a +ost Carbon Community. Their ideas in lude food-!ro#in! !rou"s* trans"ort sharin! and ener!y effi ien y. There are !rou"s like this !ettin! to!ether all over the "lanet. - am sure #e an build a +ost-Carbon ,ttery #hi h #ill im"rove the Huality of all our lives and hel" us !et throu!h the omin! years - to!ether. -f you are interested in !ettin! to!ether to make it ha""en "lease onta t me .details "rovided0.J
A number of "eo"le res"onded* and the ore !rou" of Transition ,ttery formed. -t has t#elve members* and is #orkin! on the "rin i"le of not rushin!* but takin! the time to really "ut do#n dee" roots and establish onne tions in the ommunity. They have run a series of events* attra tin! over >(( "eo"le to a s reenin! of %n .nconvenient Truth* runnin! a Family Green Day .a fZcte #ith lo al food* solar ener!y* and a om"uter #here one ould measure one1s arbon foot"rint* amon! other thin!s0. They are desi!nin! a lot of their "ro!ramme for families #ith youn! hildren* and are #orkin! #ith the lo al Later Life Forum* to dra# in older members of the ommunity. S reenin!s of The End of #uburbia and The Power of 3ommunity are "lanned* and they "lan to Enleash in summer '((). They see their evolution as slo# but steady* and they have built stron! net#orks #ith e%istin! !rou"s* su h as lo al om"ostin! !rou"s and lo al food !ro#ers. http6>>www$transitiontowns$org>!ttery+#t+7ary
Transition 8ristol
The !enesis of Transition Bristol .TB0 ame out of a "erma ulture desi!n ourse that #as run in Bristol in '((C. -n dis ussions that emer!ed from the ourse* "eo"le e%"lored #hat "ro5e ts they mi!ht like to !et involved in* and the idea #as raised of doin! an 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan for the #hole ity. Althou!h the idea seemed "retty dauntin!* it took root. Some time later* there #as a +erma ulture Day S hool #hi h brou!ht a lar!e !rou" of "eo"le to!ether for a day of #orksho"s and "ra ti al skills trainin!* after #hi h a !rou" formed .ori!inally under the title 1Transition City Bristol10. 6o one really had an idea ho# the on e"t mi!ht #ork on su h a s ale* but all of those involved felt it im"ortant that they try. The first ste"s #ere formin! the Steerin! Grou" and be!innin! the a#areness-raisin! sta!e. The first hi!h "rofile talk #as by Dr Chris :ohnstone* #hi h made it on to the lo al BBC evenin! ne#s. -n &ay '((D - !ave a talk at the Trinity Centre in Bristol* at the end of #hi h "eo"le from the various "arts of the ity or!anised into their res"e tive 1villa!es1 and dis ussed ho# they #ould like to evolve this "ro ess at the lo al level. Bristol* like all ities* is formed from a olle tion of 1villa!es1* ea h area havin! a distin t identity and this feels like the ideal s ale for mu h of this #ork. Transition Bristol* as a result* no# #orks on t#o levels. ,ne is to !o throu!h the Transition "ro ess in order to #ork to#ards an 7ner!y Des ent A tion +lan for the ity as a #hole* and the se ond is to net#ork* ins"ire* train and su""ort the 1villa!e-s ale1 initiatives in the ity. To su""ort the villa!es* TB or!anises monthly meetin!s to enable them to share #hat #orks and #hat doesn1t #ork. Alon!side this* TB runs a "ro!ramme of events and talks* a #ebsite and are "romotin! a 1virtual or hard1 initiative* #here fruit trees #ill be made available at ost a ross the ity. $orkin! on the s ale of A((*((( "eo"le is learly different from #orkin! on the villa!e and market to#n s ale. A ordin! to +eter Li"man* one of the founders* the T#elve Ste"s of Transition #ere very useful in desi!nin! their strate!y2
JThey hel"ed us to slo# do#n and deal #ith the "ressure to do everythin! no# on both of the levels #e1re #orkin! at. That "ressure is inevitable* !iven the s ale of the hallen!es and the feelin! of in redible ur!en y - but if #e don1t resist it* #e feel it ould lead to us failin! to o"en out the "ro ess to as #ide an audien e as "ossible as #ell as burnin! us all out. They have also hel"ed us #hen #orkin! #ith the lo al Transition distri ts* remindin! us to en oura!e them to think about the im"ortan e of not dashin! ahead too fast* and about ho# ru ial it is to broaden your base of su""ort and not assume that a#areness is already in "la e.J Another of the thin!s that has also been very useful has been the Criteria for be omin! a Transition -nitiative .see A""endi% B* ".''>0* #hi h Transition Bristol has been usin! #ith the 1<illa!e1 initiatives* stressin! that there are riteria that need to be in "la e #hi h #ill make their su ess more likely. TB are "lannin! their Enleashin! for S"rin! '(()* and are in reasin!ly in dialo!ue #ith some of the other emer!in! ity-s ale "ro5e ts su h as 6ottin!ham* in order to share best "ra ti e. -n 6ovember '((D Transition Bristol held 1The B-G 7vent1* the lar!est Transition event yet to be held any#here. The main s"eakers #ere /i hard Heinber!* :eremy Le!!ett* David Strahan* Dr Chris :ohnstone and myself* but there #as also a full "ro!ramme of #orksho"s and talks on a ran!e of other sub5e ts. 6early A(( "eo"le attended and the day #as a dynami * "ositive and ins"irational introdu tion to the #hole on e"t of Transition* as #ell as !ivin! "eo"le a number of tools for be!innin! or su""ortin! their lo al Transition -nitiatives. http6>>www$transitionbristol$org
Transition Town 8ri/ton

+ossibly the bi!!est task taken on by a Transition -nitiative is Transition To#n Bri%ton in London. Transition To#n Bri%ton started life as the Lambeth Climate A tion Grou"* #hi h #as formed after s reenin!s of %n .nconvenient Truth at the /it;y Cinema in '((C. 7arly in '((D member Dun an La# ame a ross the Transition model* and #as sei;ed by the idea of am"ai!nin! for somethin! rather than a!ainst. He #as also stru k by the de!ree to #hi h addin! "eak oil to the limate han!e debate stren!thened and dee"ened both ar!uments. Dun an su!!ested that the !rou" reinvent itself as a Transition -nitiative* #hi h #as unanimously a""roved. The !rou" then be!an their a#areness-raisin! sta!e* and thus far has held five film s reenin!s and has hosted nearly t#enty different s"eakers. -t has also or!anised 1!reen1 #alks* visits to interestin! "ro5e ts and "anel dis ussions. This has onsiderably raised the "rofile of the initiative* and !enerated national media overa!e. The !rou" has also formed stron! links #ith the lo al Coun il. $orkin! !rou"s are startin! to form* but the !rou" is still "uttin! in "la e the infrastru ture to enable this to ha""en most effe tively. $hen asked ho# useful the T#elve Ste"s have been* Dun an told me2 JThey have been e%tremely useful* but unfortunately they arrived sli!htly too late3 $e had already formed our steerin! !rou" for the Lambeth Climate A tion Grou"* #hi h hadn1t formed #ith the intention of be omin! a TT or #ith its o#n demise bein! an o"tion. $e are still #orkin! on ho# #e mi!ht a""ly the first Ste"* and ertainly aren1t #orkin! on them all at "resent. -n many #ays #e are still in the Layin! the Foundations and A#areness-raisin!
sta!es.J They had "lanned to have an Enleashin! at the end of the summer of '((D* but felt that they still hadn1t rea hed the riti al mass reHuired to !uarantee an e%"losion* so it has been "ut ba k to S"rin! '((). Bein! still lar!ely in the A#areness-raisin! sta!e there are fe# "ra ti al manifestations of the "ro5e t* althou!h some that are "lanned in lude a Green &a" of Bri%ton and an urban !ardenin! edu ation "ro5e t based on a !ardenin! site #hi h is already established. The Hyde Farm Climate A tion 6et#ork has formed in a lo al estate* is !ro#in! food in front !ardens and has held ener!y-savin! #orksho"s* film sho#in!s and fruit-"i kin! events. - asked Dun an #hat he sa# as bein! the differen e bet#een a""lyin! the Transition model in Bri%ton and else#here. He told me2 J,ne of thin!s that is so different about tryin! to im"lement this model in Bri%ton as o""osed to a market to#n or villa!e is that Bri%ton is a "ost-industrial "henomenon - it is not based on an an ient model of sustainability. There is no "re-oil infrastru ture in "la e #e an learn from. The effe t of "eak oil on some#here like Bri%ton #ill be a hu!e shake-u". 6o one is lookin! sHuarely at the de"enden y of ities - ho# to feed them* and #hat #ill ha""en #hen unem"loyment rises and house "ri es fall atastro"hi ally* #hen there is no more money in the !rant "ots* and #hen lo al !overnment is sHuee;ed. Lo al !overnment is still makin! uts. $e are sayin! to them2 invest no# in this ne# infrastru ture. $e are also e%"lorin! ho# to make relationshi"s outside the ity that #ill su""ort the ity* onne tions to farmers* as #ell as "uttin! in "la e lo al infrastru ture su h as or!ani food hubs.J A""lyin! the Transition a""roa h to urban areas is one of the uttin! ed!es of this #ork* and information-sharin! bet#een the various "ro5e ts is im"ortant* so Bri%ton* Bristol* 6ottin!ham* Bri!hton and the other urban "ro5e ts dra# a !reat deal of ins"iration and en oura!ement from ea h others1 efforts. http6>>www$transitiontownbrixton$org
Transition :orest of 5ean

The Forest of Dean in Glou estershire learly "resents a very different set of hallen!es from those of the ity of Bristol. -t overs about '(( sHuare kilometres and is home to about DB*((( "eo"le. The Forest is bounded by the /iver $ye .and $ales0 to the #est* and the /iver Severn to the east. The distri t1s northern boundary is north-#est of the ity of Glou ester in the <ale of Leadon. Transition Forest of Dean emer!ed #ith Sue and Andre# Clarke* #ho both #orked as environmental onsultants and #ere be omin! frustrated at the la k of lo al a tion on limate han!e. They onta ted their lo al oun il to ask them #hat they #ere doin! about limate han!e* the ans#er to #hi h #as not mu h* be ause the ommunity hadn1t yet told them that they felt it to be an im"ortant issue. Around this time* Sue be!an to fo us her #ork at a more lo al s ale and in &ar h '((D she ame a ross the Transition 6et#ork #ebsite. Seein! that the -nau!ural &eetin! of the Transition 6et#ork #as omin! u" soon at /uskin &ill near 6ails#orth* she booked a "la e and headed over.
-ns"ired and fired u" by the event* Sue returned home to initiate Transition Forest of Dean. She #anted to form a steerin! !rou" #hi h #as not "rimarily made u" of "eo"le from a 1!reen1 ba k!round* but #hi h re"resented the broader ommunity. Sue des ribes the makeu" of the !rou" thus2 J$e have t#o #ith s ien e9environmental9strate!i onsultan y ba k!rounds* three #ith a "erma ulture ba k!round* one Friends of the 7arth* one Green +arty* one from !reen business .a lo al #ood o-o"0* one from a housin! o-o"* and another a key re"resentative of 1Foresters1 involved #ith "reservin! our lo al traditions and ri!hts .very im"ortant to the ommunity here0. $e also have t#o "eo"le #ho are basi ally on erned individuals #ho kee" the rest of us !rounded and are motivated enou!h to #ant to make a han!e.J Given the dis"ersed nature of the Forest* and the fa t that drivin! from one side to other takes about A( minutes* the !rou" Hui kly realised that they needed to !o to the ommunity* rather than e%"e tin! the ommunity to ome to it. They therefore develo"ed a 1roadsho# a""roa h1 to take round the main to#ns* sho#in! films and fa ilitatin! dis ussions after#ards* some of their events fo usin! on "eak oil and transition* and others on the "ossible im"a ts of limate han!e s"e ifi to the Forest of Dean area. Their "ers"e tive is that althou!h there are distin t to#ns #ithin the Forest* most "eo"le see themselves as Foresters first* and as residents of their to#ns se ond. They* therefore* feel that #orkin! on the s ale of the #hole area is the most skilful a""roa h. At the be!innin!* they #ere on erned that "eo"le #ould feel that Transition Forest of Dean #as !oin! to do everythin! for everyone. 6o#* as #ord !ets round* "eo"le are omin! for#ard* more "eo"le are offerin! hel" and time. To date their audien es have tended to be mostly of those over A( years of a!e* and so they are desi!nin! events and "ubli ity in su h a #ay as to have a broader a""eal. They have also re ently been invited to "resent to se ondary s hool hildren. ,ther events they have or!anised in lude a monthly so ial net#orkin! !et-to!ether* a Huarterly lo al food feast* and stalls at lo al events. -n terms of the T#elve Ste"s .".>A)0* they see themselves as bein! still in the first three* thou!h the re ent "ur hase of a number of 7le trisave meters for loan to anyone #ho #ould like to monitor their ener!y usa!e is a visible a tion that #ill rea" immediate benefits as "eo"le be ome more a#are of their ener!y-usa!e habits and ho# they an redu e their onsum"tion. http6>>www$transitionforest$org$u0
#ome closing thoughts

Somethin! about these "rofoundly hallen!in! times #e live in strikes me as bein! tremendously e% itin!. Clearly "eak oil and limate han!e are "otentially atastro"hi hallen!es #hi h an easily lead to our "aintin! !rim "i tures of so ial breakdo#n and e olo!i al olla"se. -t is easy to s"end many slee"less ni!hts #orryin! about them - many of us have. $ith a small shift in thinkin! thou!h* su h as that laid out in this book* #e may find it
hard to !et to slee" due to our heads bu;;in! #ith "ossibilities* ideas and the sheer e%hilaration of bein! "art of a ulture able to rethink and reinvent itself in an un"re edented #ay. - believe that a lo#er-ener!y* more lo alised future* in #hi h #e move from bein! onsumers to bein! "rodu er9 onsumers* #here food* ener!y and other essentials are lo ally "rodu ed* lo al e onomies are stren!thened and #e have learned to live more #ithin our means is a ste" to#ards somethin! e%traordinary* not a ste" a#ay from somethin! inherently irre"la eable. And #hat is it e%a tly that #e are so fearful to move a#ay from8 The 6e# 7 onomi s Foundation has sho#n that2

-n reased in ome sto""ed makin! us any ha""ier sometime around >IC>C $hen asked #hi h de ade from the >IB(s on#ards res"ondents #ould most like to have lived in* the >IC(s emer!ed as most "o"ularD C'O of "eo"le in the E= have 5obs they find uninterestin! or stressful )DO of Britons a!ree #ith the statement 1So iety has be ome too materialisti * #ith too mu h em"hasis on money and not enou!h on the thin!s that really matter1 The de!ree to #hi h #e trust ea h other has fallen by half sin e the >IB(s.)
Also* #ith national indebtedness no# at a re ord ]P>.' trillion* it is lear that #e are "ayin! throu!h the nose for somethin! that fails to meet our fundamental human as"irations2 ha""iness* se urity* time for rela%ation* re#ardin! #ork and a ess to healthy food. Those #ho are involved in Transition -nitiatives .#hi h mi!ht no# in lude you if you have !ot this far in the book0 are "art of one of the bi!!est and most im"ortant resear h "ro5e ts under#ay any#here in the #orld. 4ou are atalysin! those around you to ask the Huestions that !overnment still finds it very hard to ask* but that are essential to our olle tive survival. 4ou are a kno#led!in! that it is #ith us that real han!e be!ins* and that it is u" to us #hether #e a e"t this res"onsibility or shy a#ay from it. - ho"e you #ill find the tools in this book useful. $hat you do #ith them* ho# you assemble the "ie es* is u" to you. $e are all makin! this u" as #e !o alon!* reatin! the road as #e travel alon! it. Central to this book is the "ro"osition that the future #ith less oil ould be "referable to the "resent* if #e are able to en!a!e #ith enou!h ima!ination and reativity suffi iently in advan e of the "eak. - have mentioned this a fe# times throu!h this bookK - have done so be ause it is the Transition on e"t in a nutshell. $hat that en!a!ement #ill look like in ea h ommunity #ill emer!e from that ommunity itself. The idea that every villa!e* to#n* ity* hamlet* island or distri t ould be ome a Transition -nitiative may seem fan iful* yet it is entirely "ossible. -t is an idea #hose time has ome. -t is im"ortant to remind ourselves that this is not a "ro ess #hi h has a hieved nothin! until it has om"letely "o#ered-do#n its ommunityK rather* #hat matters is the 5ourney* the "ro ess* the omin! to!ether and doin! it. $hen - sat do#n to be!in #ritin! this book* oil ost around ND( a barrel. 6o#* in :une '(()* the "ri e has almost doubled* bein! lose to N>A(. +reviously o"timisti fore asts are bein! ontinually revised do#n#ards* #ith Fatih Birol* Chief 7 onomist at the -7A* no# sayin!2 J$e must leave oil before it leaves us.J The A!e of Chea" 7ner!y is over. The sooner #e an a kno#led!e that and an start to en!a!e our olle tive reativity* the less likely it is that #e #ill sink into des"onden y* blame-seekin! and "o#erlessness* and the more likely it is that
#e #ill unleash the most e%traordinary and histori transition. $e are alive at a "ivotal moment in human history. $hile "eak oil and limate han!e are undeniably "rofoundly hallen!in!* also inherent #ithin them is the "otential for an e onomi * ultural and so ial renaissan e the likes of #hi h #e have never seen. $e #ill see a flourishin! of lo al businesses* lo al skills and solutions* and a flo#erin! of in!enuity and reativity. -t is a Transition in #hi h #e #ill inevitably !ro#* and in #hi h our evolution is a "re ondition for "ro!ress. 7mer!in! at the other end* #e #ill not be the same as #e #ereK #e #ill have be ome more humble* more onne ted to the natural #orld* fitter* leaner* more skilled and* ultimately* #iser. $e #ill emer!e blinkin! into a ne# #ay of livin!* yet it #ill feel more omfortable and familiar than #hat #e left behind. -f #e are to trade mobility* !ro#th and affluen e for somethin! else* #e need to be able to arti ulate somethin! "referable and more nourishin! to "ut in its "la e. - ho"e this book has ins"ired you to be a atalyst for e%"lorin! these ne# "ossibilities* in your life* your ommunity and your #orld. &ay it kee" you a#ake at ni!ht* but this time for all the ri!ht reasons.

Transition Handbook

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Transition Handbook free edit version is released under GFDL and Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike. By ontributin! to or editin!

The Transition Handbook - free edit version

Chapter : The view from the mountain-top

Chapter !: Why rebuilding resilience is as important as cutting carbon emissions

Chapter ": Why small is inevitable

Chapter &: 'nderstanding the Psychology of Change

Chapter (: Harnessing the power of a positive vision

Chapter ): * vision for +!+ - looking back over the transition

Chapter ,: -insale - a first attempt at community visioning

Chapter 11: How to start a Transition 0nitiative

Chapter 1 : The first year of Transition Town Totnes

Chapter 1!: The viral speed of the Transition concept

#ome key indications that we are nearing the peak

The greenhouse effect

0s there such a thing as a safe limit1

The intertwining of peak oil and climate change

The contradictions of the Hirsch 3eport

Chapter : The view from the mountain-top

4valuating possible ways forward

Why a future with less energy ends up looking somewhat inevitable

Why %4nergy 5escent%1

Chapter !: Why rebuilding resilience is as important as cutting carbon emissions

The three ingredients of a resilient system

6ife before oil wasn7t all bad

The cake analogy

4choes of a resilient past

Can we learn anything useful from 8ritain7s last 9wartime mobilisation71

Chapter ": Why small is inevitable

The dangers of clinging to the illusion of large-scale

Where does government fit in1

#umming up Part 1: The oil age draws to a close

The Heart - Why having a positive vision is crucial

Clammy palms or nausea and mild palpitations

* sense of bewilderment and unreality

*n irrational grasping at unfeasible solutions

;utbreaks of nihilism and<or survivalism

The %0 always told you so% syndrome

a""ro"riate to a ulture in transition.

Chapter &: 'nderstanding the Psychology of Change

*n interview with 5r Chris =ohnstone

To what e/tent is it possible to say that we are %addicted to oil%1

Why might it be useful to say we are %addicted to oil%1

#o how can addictions treatment help1

How can insights from addictions be utilised practically by Transition 0nitiatives1

The :3*.4# model

Feedba k /es"onsibility Advi e &enu of o"tions 7m"athy Self-effi a y

.6ot in any kind of hronolo!i al order0.

:eedback of personal risk or impairment

4mphasis on personal responsibility for change

Clear advice to change

* menu of alternative change options

Therapeutic empathy as a counselling style

4nhancement of client self-efficacy or optimism

Chapter (: Harnessing the power of a positive vision

Why visions work

Captain :uture - the wi?ard of science

Chapter ): * vision for +!+ - looking back over the transition

:ood and farming

.edicine and health

Chapter ,: -insale - a first attempt at community visioning

The -insale 4nergy 5escent *ction and how it came about

:our lessons from the -insale Pro2ect