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3rd Quarter 2008 to 2nd Quarter 2009 Non-residential starts to climb 30%
Scheduled non-residential building starts are to rise 30% in the year from July 2008 with Indonesias growth accelerating and Vietnams tapering.
Construction starts for non-residential building projects in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia are expected to rise 30% in the year from 1 July 2008 over the same period last year, according to research on scheduled building starts by BCI Asia. Growth of non-residential building starts is mixed across the region with Vietnam to remain the fastest growing region despite its rate of annual growth slowing to 125% from a peak of 366% recorded last quarter (see Building Starts Forecast: 2nd Quarter 2008 to 1st Quarter 2009). Growth for Indonesia has accelerated to 41% on a steep increase in planning activity for the office, hotel and recreation segments. Malaysias starts are to rise 13% on increasing activity in the industrial segment while Hong Kongs are set to rise 3%. Non-residential building starts are scheduled to decline 12% in Philippines, 10% in Thailand and 3% in Singapore.
Philippines
-12%
-3% Singapore
Thailand
-10%
Indonesia
41%
Vietnam
195%
Malaysia
13%
25
30
BCI Asia Building Starts Forecast - 3rd Quarter 2008 to 2nd Quarter 2009
The office segment is set to grow faster than any other building segment in terms of construction starts by floor area across the combined region of Southeast Asia and Hong Kong in the year from July 2008. The office segment is expected to rise 78% on a steep increase in starts in Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore and Hong Kong. Although relatively minor, exhibition building starts are set to rise 71%. The hotel sector is to rise 68%, recreation by 65%, residential by 33%, health/ community by 19%, retail by 10% and education/research by 8%. Declines are expected in the transport sector (down 25%) particularly in Malaysia and in the industrial sector (down 5%). Construction starts for large residential projects are scheduled to rise 292% in Vietnam with a large number of major residential projects on the drawing board for Ho Chi Minh City. These projects include 160,000 square metres of residential floor area in the Phu Hoang Anh Apartment which is being designed by Surbana International Consultants for a site in the Nha Be District, 270,000 square metres in the Thanh Cong Tower 2 in Binh Thanh District and 200,000 square metres in the Diamond Island Urban Zone in District 2. Residential starts have surged 93% in Indonesia with the planning of multitower projects such as the four 30storey Mayapada apartment towers in Lebak Bulus, Jakarta, with 180,000 square metres of residential floor area designed by Urbane Indonesia. Other high-rise projects in Jakarta include 136,000 square metres of residential floor area in Green Park View Apartment in Jalan Daan Mogot, 138,000 square metres in Royal Mediterania Garden City in Jalan S Parman, 100,000 square metres in Soho Kemayoran and in Ancol Mansion. Scheduled office building starts are scheduled to rise 218% in Vietnam with projects such as the 230,000-squaremetre Subeco Office Building designed
Exhibition
Transport
-25%
Health / Community
19%
Recreation
65%
Education / Research
8%
Industrial
-5%
Hotel
68%
Retail
10%
Office
78%
33% Residential
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
22
BCI Asia Building Starts Forecast - 3rd Quarter 2008 to 2nd Quarter 2009
for District 4 of Ho Chi Minh City by Campbell, Shillinglaw and Partners. Office starts are to rise 129% in Singapore with projects such as the 44-storey North Tower at Marina View being designed by Architects 61 and Denton Corker Marshall. Office starts are to rise 129% in Indonesia with projects such as the 44-storey Equity Tower being designed for a site in Kuningan, Jakarta, by Airmas Asri for the Permata Birama Sakti Group. Indonesia is registering strong growth in the retail sector with forecast starts up 33% on large projects across Java such as the 100,000-square-metre Union Square mall, the 75,000-square-metre Pakuwon Power Centre and the 35,000square-metre Fashion Walk in Surabaya, East Java, as well as the 70,000square-metre Solo Paragon mall and the 20,000-square-metre Kusuma mall in Surakarta, Central Java. Retail starts are surging in Vietnam (up 128%), in Singapore (up 117%) and climbing marginally in Malaysia (up 5%), but the sector seems to have peaked in the Philippines (down 49%), Hong Kong (down 41%) and Thailand (down 10%). Thailands hotel sector remains strong with 31% growth expected for building starts including five-star hotels designed for three sites in Surat Thani, for two sites in Phuket, for two sites in Chonburi as well as for sites in Bangkok, Rayong and Prachuap Khiri Khan. The hotel sector is growing rapidly across the region with starts to rise 218% in Vietnam, 129% in Singapore, 127% in Indonesia, 83% in Hong Kong, 20% in Malaysia and 18% in the Philippines. The outlook for the industrial sector is mixed with growth expected in Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam, but contractions expected in Hong Kong, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia.
BCI Asia Building Starts Forecast - 2nd Quarter 2008 to 3rd Quarter 2009
The strength of Malaysias industrial starts rests on metal processing plants such as the USD840 million Mukah Smelting Plant in Sarawak being designed by the Aluminium Corporation of China (Chalco) for Press Metal Sarawak. This aluminium smelting plant will have an initial annual capacity of 50,000 tons. Construction starts for educational facilities are set to rise in Vietnam with projects such as the University of Economics and Finance being designed by HOK International and the University of Architecture being designed by Vo Trong Nghia for sites in Ho Chi Minh City. In other countries, except Indonesia construction starts for education/ research projects are declining. Recreation projects are on the rise everywhere except Malaysia. Recreation starts are to rise 241% in the Philippines, 166% in Thailand, 135% in Vietnam, 74% in Singapore and 73% in Indonesia.
Hong Kong is set to enjoy a 77% surge in recreation building starts with large projects on the drawing board including the Hong Kong Sports Institute Redevelopment as well as the Indoor Velodrome Cum Sports Centre at separate sites in the New Territories.
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