Lecture 2. Why Democracy?

The Revolution of the Carnations (Portugal 1974)

The Revolution of the Carnations (Portugal 1974)

Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo (Argentina 1970s)

Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo (Argentina 1970s)

The Miracle at Edsa (Philippines, 1986)

People Power

Students demonstrate for democracy (South Korea, 1987)

Tiananmen Square protests for freedom and democracy (May 1989)

Solidarity (Poland, 1980s)

Solidarity (Poland, 1980s)

East Germans rally before the fall of the Berlin Wall (November 1989)

Nelson Mandela, with his wife Winnie, after release from prison (Feb 10, 1990)

South Africa Votes (April 1994)

Tunisians demonstrate for democracy (January 2011)

Anti-Mubarak protests in Tahrir Square (February 2011)

Anti-Mubarak protests in Tahrir Square (February 2011)

The Vote

Defending Human Rights

Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest

Chinese democracy advocate Liu Xiaobo, recipient of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize

Egyptian blogger Khaled Saeed

Containing the arbitrary rule of a dictator

Dictator of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos

Libyas fallen dictator, Muammar al Gaddafi

Venezuelas strongman Hugo Chavez

Zimbabwes Robert Mugabe

Transparency

Due Process

Predictability

Rule of Law

Enforceability/ Accountability

Stability

Supremacy of the Constitution

Protection of Property Rights

Protection of Property Rights

Protection of the Environment

The Democratic Peace

The Democratic Peace The Democratic Peace

The Global Expansion and Recession of Democracy (1974-2012)

Three waves of global democra2za2on (Hun2ngton) First wave of democra?za?on, 1828-1926 n First reverse wave, 1922-1942 n Second wave of democra?za?on, 1943-1962 n Second reverse wave, 1958-1975 n Third wave of democra?za?on, 1974-? n Did a fourth wave begin in 1989? (or 2011?)
n

The Democra2c Boom: the Third Wave of Democra2za2on

n n n n

In 1974, less than a third of all states were democracies By 1984, there were 59 democracies (36%) By 1990 there were 76 (46%) Then the Berlin Wall came crashing down: 1991: 88 democracies (48%) 1995: 112 democracies (58%) 1999: 118 democracies (61.5%) 2005: 121 democracies (62.5%)

The Growth of Democracy in the World (1974-2012)

75.0% 65.0% 55.0%
45.7% 62.5% 58.1% 59.9% 60.0%

45.0%
37.0%

35.0% 25.0% 15.0%

29.1%

33.5% 33.0% 35.9%

41.1%

45.6%

30.5% 20.9% 23.6% 26.1%

Electoral Democracies

Liberal Democracies

Global Trends in Freedom (1974-2012)

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0

3.64 4.31 4.47 4.24 3.85 4.08 4.35 5.05 4.84 4.76

3.48

3.22

3.30

3.31

3.61 3.89

3.70

3.69

World

Developing World

Expansion of Liberal Democracy

About two-thirds of the worlds democracies (77) are reasonably high-quality or liberal:
n n n n

electoral competition is institutionalized, fair, and open civil liberties are better protected rule of law exists low levels of political violence and abuses or impunity by state security services

The Globaliza2on of Democracy

During this period, democracy became a global phenomenon. Today:
n n n n n

28 of 33 Latin American states are democracies (85%) 17 of 29 in Eastern Europe and FSU (59%) 10 of 25 in Asia (40%) + (10 of 12 Pacific Island) 17 of 49 in Sub-Saharan Africa (35%) or less) Only 3 of 19 in the Middle East

Democracy by Region: Jan 2013

100 90 80 70
% of total 67 63 100 100

Democracy
85 83 75

Liberal Democracy

60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Eur/Anglo LAC EE+FSU Asia Pacific Is. SS Africa 21 22 21 43 38 37

5 MENA

Regional Trends in Freedom 1974-2012

CEE 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 5.28 5.45 6.19 6.50 3.70 4.42 2.62 2.42 3.81 4.19 4.50 5.32 5.36 3.86 4.44 5.17 5.50 2.39 3.51 4.41 5.17 5.16 2.37 1.94 LAC SS Africa FSU Asia-Pacific FSU MENA

The Democra2c Recession

n

The expansion of democracy peaked in 2005 at 62.5% of all states. Since then it has declined from 120 to 116 democracies. No significant gain in number of democracies in seven years Six consecutive years of declining freedom scores, losses outpacing gains. Significant erosion of democracy in Africa.

n n

The Democra2c Recession

n

The rate of democratic breakdown since 1999 has been nearly twice the pace of the preceding 12 years. 26 breakdowns or reversals of democracy since 1999. These have come in some large strategic states:
n

n n

Pakistan, Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Kenya

Ratio of Gains to Declines in Freedom (1991-2011)

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

# Breakdowns

% of all Democracies during Third Wave (170)

Countries with dates of democratic breakdown and renewal

Breakdown with subsequent return to democracy

28

16.5%

India (1975, 1977) Turkey (1980, 1983) Ghana (1981, 2000) Nigeria (1983, 1999) Fiji (1987, 1997) Thailand (1991,1993) Peru (1992, 2001) Lesotho (1994, 2002) Zambia (1996, 2001) Bangladesh (2007, 2008) Philippines (2007, 2010) Thailand (2006, 2011) Niger (2009, 2011)

Breakdowns of Democracy

# Breakdowns

% of all Democracies during Third Wave (170)

Countries with dates of democratic breakdown and renewal

Breakdown with no return to democracy by 2011

26

15.3%

Lebanon (1975) Sudan (1989) The Gambia (1994) Pakistan (1999) Fiji (2000) Kyrgyzstan (1998) Russia (2000) Nepal (2002) Nigeria (2003) Venezuela (2005) Kenya (2007) Georgia (2008) Mauritania (2008) Honduras (2009) Madagascar (2009) Mozambique (2009) Burundi (2010) Sri Lanka (2010) Guinea Bissau (2010) Haiti (2010) Nicaragua (2011)

54 31.8% Breakdowns of Democracy

Total

Rate of Democratic Breakdown (1974-2011)

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
19.86% 16.00% 11.72% 31.95%

Time Period

Freedom in Sub-Saharan Africa 1974-2011

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0

4.10 4.75 5.36 5.51 5.45 5.84 4.44

4.33

Trends in Political Rights, Rule of Law & Civil Liberties in Africa (2005-2011)
0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30
0.42 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.53

0.52

0.51

0.51

0.50

0.51

0.50 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.48

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010 Civil Liber2es

2011

Poli2cal/Electoral Rights

Transparency/Rule of Law

Freedom before democratic breakdowns (1990-2011)

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0

Political Rights Civil Liberties

Other Worrisome Trends Authoritarian backlash against civil society n Fiscal disarray in the West
n

Why Democracy is in Danger

1. Weak Rule of Law n Corrup?on, abuse of power n Abuse of rights, impunity n Violence, criminality, lawlessness 2. Execu2ve abuse of power; n weak constraints on execu?ves by cons?tu?on, parliament, civil society

Why Democracy is in Danger

3. Ethnic & Religious Divisions

4. Weak and ineec2ve poli2cal ins2tu2ons n Par?es, parliaments, systems of horizontal accountability 5. Poor Economic Performance n Poverty, inequality, injus?ce BAD GOVERNANCE