Labour Market Bulletin

New Brunswick

March 2013
The Monthly Edition of the Labour Market Bulletin provides an analysis of monthly Labour Force Survey results for the province of New Brunswick, including the regions of CampbelltonMiramichi, EdmundstonWoodstock, Fredericton Oromocto, MonctonRichibucto and Saint JohnSt. Stephen.

OVERVIEW
In February 2013, the labour market in New Brunswick experienced its second consecutive month of employment growth after several months of decreases. The addition of almost 3,000 jobs to the total reflects an increase of 4,800 full-time jobs and a loss of 1,900 part-time jobs. The employment rate was up 0.5 percentage points to 57.0%. The unemployment rate fell 1.2 percentage points, although close to 5,000 fewer people were looking for work. This decrease appears somewhat high and may be attributable to the margin of error associated with the sample size of the Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey. The provinces economy is still not very strong and these numbers appear somewhat overly positive, although the decline in the number of people looking for work seems to indicate that people are not very hopeful of finding a job. The fragility of the economy contributes to this feeling about the provinces labour market. The data indicate that there has been little noteworthy change since February 2012. However, it is important to point out that the working age population continues to decline. Increasingly, the province is experiencing permanent migration of its working age population to other provinces.

Labour Market Bulletin - New Brunswick, March 2013 New Brunswick Monthly Labour Force Statistics
Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Data Population 15 + ('000) Labour Force ('000) Employment ('000) Full-Time ('000) Part-Time ('000) Unemployment ('000) Unemployment Rate (%) Participation Rate (%) Employment Rate (%)
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey

Page 2

February 2013 619.9 393.0 353.3 297.6 55.7 39.7 10.1 63.4 57.0

January 2013 620.1 395.0 350.4 292.8 57.6 44.6 11.3 63.7 56.5

February 2012 620.5 391.9 352.6 296.9 55.7 39.3 10.0 63.2 56.8

Monthly Variation Number -0.2 -2.0 2.9 4.8 -1.9 -4.9 -1.2 -0.3 0.5 % 0.0 -0.5 0.8 1.6 -3.3 -11.0 -

Yearly Variation Number -0.6 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 % -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0 -

After achieving a record employment level in May 2012, the situation deteriorated until the reversal in January 2013. The unemployment rate remains above the 10% bar and has not fallen below this level since July 2012. The economic recovery is still uncertain in both Canada and the United States, which affects export economies like that of New Brunswick. The strength of the Canadian dollar is a factor contributing to the challenges facing the provinces exporters. New Brunswicks labour market is clearly suffering as a result of anemic economic growth.

Labour Market Bulletin - New Brunswick, March 2013 New Brunswick Monthly Unemployment Rates, by Gender and Age
Seasonally Adjusted Data Total 25 years and over Men - 25 years and over Women - 25 years and over 15 to 24 years Men - 15 to 24 years Women - 15 to 24 years February 2013 % 10.1 9.2 11.8 6.3 16.0 22.8 8.1 January 2013 % 11.3 10.2 13.0 7.1 18.1 22.4 13.4 February 2012 % 10.0 9.0 10.8 7.0 16.0 18.0 13.9 Monthly Variation Number -1.2 -1.0 -1.2 -0.8 -2.1 0.4 -5.3 Yearly Variation Number 0.1 0.2 1.0 -0.7 0.0 4.8 -5.8

Page 3

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey

EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
In February, higher employment was posted in the both goods-producing and services-producing industries, with gains being higher in goods-producing industries. There was an increase of almost 1,000 jobs in the construction industry, although no major project was announced in the past month. Despite this gain, the number of people employed in the construction field remained below February 2012 levels. Manufacturing industries also posted a gain of close to 1,000 jobs in the past month. As with the construction industry, there were few factors to support such a rise in employment. Compared to February of last year, employment was stable in these industries, which is more representative of what was observed on the ground. The increase in employment in the services-producing sector was relatively minor, with about 1,000 more jobs. The gains were spread across several industries. Industries in the information, culture and recreation sector posted the highest gains in February. This represents the first significant increase in these industries in a long time and it is too early to draw any conclusions. There is little evidence available to support such a sudden improvement. The sharpest monthly drop in employment was observed in the educational services sector, a situation difficult to understand since this sector consists mainly of staff in public educational institutions. There have been no recent layoff announcements in the headlines. The health care and social assistance sector did not experience any increase in the past month, but did post the strongest growth in employment in the province. The growing demands of an aging population for health care continue to be a factor in this situation. In contrast, compared to last year, the public administration sector continued to experience major decreases. Reductions by the various levels of government continue to negatively impact the labour market.

Labour Market Bulletin - New Brunswick, March 2013 New Brunswick Monthly Labour Force Statistics, by Industry
Seasonally Adjusted Data ('000) Total employed, all industries Goods-producing sector Agriculture Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas Utilities Construction Manufacturing Services-producing sector Trade Transportation and warehousing Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing Professional, scientific and technical services Business, building and other support services Educational services Health care and social assistance Information, culture and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services Public administration
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey

Page 4

February 2013 353.3 76.6 4.7 12.6 3.6 25.9 29.7 276.7 56.8 17.8 16.2 13.1 15.4 26.1 55.1 15.1 22.8 15.4 23.1

January 2013 350.4 74.6 5.1 12.1 3.5 25.0 28.9 275.8 57.0 17.9 16.7 13.9 15.0 28.0 55.6 13.0 21.7 14.7 22.3

February 2012 352.6 76.3 3.7 10.9 4.5 27.3 29.9 276.3 54.0 16.9 15.0 15.4 17.2 27.3 51.5 12.1 23.2 17.2 26.5

Monthly Variation Number 2.9 2.0 -0.4 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 0.4 -1.9 -0.5 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.8 % 0.8 2.7 -7.8 4.1 2.9 3.6 2.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -3.0 -5.8 2.7 -6.8 -0.9 16.2 5.1 4.8 3.6

Yearly Variation Number 0.7 0.3 1.0 1.7 -0.9 -1.4 -0.2 0.4 2.8 0.9 1.2 -2.3 -1.8 -1.2 3.6 3.0 -0.4 -1.8 -3.4 % 0.2 0.4 27.0 15.6 -20.0 -5.1 -0.7 0.1 5.2 5.3 8.0 -14.9 -10.5 -4.4 7.0 24.8 -1.7 -10.5 -12.8

REGIONAL ANALYSIS
The weakness of the provincial economy is impacting all of the provinces economic regions. Only the CampbelltonMiramichi region saw higher employment in February 2013 than in February 2012. However, this region had experienced a difficult year in 2012. Februarys employment level remains below that of February 2011. The unemployment rate continued to grow in the region, with the addition of close to 2,500 unemployed workers. This is by far the highest rate in the province. The MonctonRichibucto economic region lost approximately 1,000 jobs, all in the Moncton metropolitan area. However, this region had seen a sharp increase in employment in 2012. It is a diversified region and relies heavily on an impressive retail trade sector. Retail sales have slowed in recent months, impacting the labour market. The highest job losses were in the Saint JohnSt. Stephen economic region. This region also experienced a difficult year in 2012. Losses were concentrated outside the Saint John metropolitan area. The region has a large manufacturing sector and the economic situation of such trading partners as the United States is negatively impacting labour market growth.

Labour Market Bulletin - New Brunswick, March 2013

Page 5

The FrederictonOromocto region continued to post job losses in February, adding to the regions losses over the past two years. Cutbacks in the public administration sector have impacted the labour market in the provincial capital region. In the EdmundstonWoodstock region, the population continued to decline. The number of jobs fell at a slightly slower rate than the population and there was some improvement in the employment rate. However, unemployment was still up in the region. New Brunswick Monthly Labour Force Statistics, by Economic Region
Employment 3-Month Moving Averages Seasonally Unadjusted Data New Brunswick Economic Regions CampbelltonMiramichi MonctonRichibucto Saint JohnSt. Stephen FrederictonOromocto EdmundstonWoodstock
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey

Unemployment Rate Yearly Variation (%) -0.8 2.5 -0.9 -1.9 -1.5 -1.4 February 2013 ('000) 11.4 18.9 8.0 10.6 9.5 12.1 February 2012 ('000) 10.2 16.3 8.1 8.8 8.6 11.1 Yearly Variation (% points) 1.2 2.6 -0.1 1.8 0.9 1.0

February 2013 ('000) 340.2 58.3 102.9 81.1 63.9 34.1

February 2012 ('000) 342.8 56.9 103.8 82.7 64.9 34.6

Note: In preparing this document, the authors have taken care to provide clients with labour market information that is timely and accurate at the time of publication. Since labour market conditions are dynamic, some of the information presented here may have changed since this document was published. Users are encouraged to also refer to other sources for additional information on the local economy and labour market. Information contained in this document does not necessarily reflect official policies of Human Resources and Skills Development Canada. Prepared by: Labour Market Information (LMI) Division, New Brunswick For further information, please contact the LMI team at: lmi-imt@workingincanada.gc.ca For information on the Labour Force Survey, please visit the Statistics Canada Web site at: www.statcan.gc.ca