Energy Sector Overview

Energy

Source: EBTKE KESDM 2012

Indonesia Energy Outlook: Primary Energy (Base Case: 8% GDP Avg.Growth)

Rapid increase in nal energy demand (domestic) between 2010 and 2030 to support GDP growth rate averaging 7.6% (base) and 10.4% (MP3EI), the baseline scenario is estimated to increase 3 times of 2010, namely close to 3,000 million BOE per year, whereas in scenario MP3EI reached more than 4-fold Energy supply in 2030 will be dominated by fossil energy sources (82%). Coal became the main supplier of energy in the energy mix since 2015, amounting to 31% and to 38% in 2030. The share of natural gas (Basic Scenario) decreased slightly (15.6%), but still higher than EBT (13%), and rewood (10%) in 2015.

New & Renewable Energy Sources ContribuIon in Energy-Mix

Base Case scenario: the provision of NRE grew > 8% per year; increase use of NRE > 4x fold: from 141 million BOE in 2010 to 670 million BOE in 2030. EBT rapid growth has not been able to increase its role in the national energy mix.
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 2030: biofuel untuk sektor transportasi menjadi pemanfaatan EBT yang utama, disusul secara berturut turut oleh panas bumi, hidro, biomasa, nuklir, CBM, CTL, matahari, sampah dan angin, namun dalam bauran energi pangsanya hanya 17,5% (skenario Dasar) dan 14,4% (skenario MP3EI).
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Proyeksi Kapasitas Pembangkit Listrik Nasional (OEI 2012)

2010 2030: peningkatan ~ 5 - 7 kali. 33,2 GW (2010) 162 GW (2030, Base, 8%/th). 228 GW (2030, MP3EI, 10%/th) PLTU batubara: dominan, 2030 mencapai 97,6 GW (base) dan 160,7 GW MP3EI).

Proyeksi Pangsa Pembangkit ET Vs Non-ET (OEI 2012)

2010 s.d. 2030: PL EBT meningkat ~6x; 6,639 GW Jenis: PLTP, PLTA, PLTM, PLTBiomasa, PLTN, PLTBayu, PLTS, PLTGB (gasikasi batubara) serta Pembangkit berbasis sampah (W2E). PLTP dan Hidro: 12 GW (7%) dan 18,3 GW(11%) tahun 2030. PLTN 2028 sebesar 2 GW (1%), dan 4 GW (2%) pada 2030.

Perbandingan Skala Ke-Ekonomian EBT

Berdasarkan skala keekonomian rela[f dapat ditentukan prioritas pengembangan EBT

Skala Keekonomian Berbagai Jenis EBT (Wahid et all, 2011)

Rapid increase in nal energy demand between 2010 and 2030 (Figure 2) to support GDP growth rate averaging 7.6% (base) and 10.4% (MP3EI), the baseline scenario is esRmated to 3 Rmes its needs in 2010, namely close to 3,000 million BOE per year, whereas in scenario MP3EI reached more than 4-fold. The increase is primarily to growth in industrial and transportaRon sectors. In the short term needs of the scenario MP3EI magnitude only slightly higher than the base scenario, but aVer 2020 there was an increase in the need for rapid MP3EI scenario, up to 1.5 Rmes the base scenario. Needs of the industrial sector is dominant, ie 41% in 2015, and to 43% in 2030, followed by the transportaRon sector increased from 28% in 2015 to 35% in 2030

Indonesia Energy SituaIon:

Increasing concern on Fossil Fuel Oil availability and affordability limitation made a paradigm shift in national energy policy have to give much more role and hope to New and Renewable Energy Sources and Energy Efficiency in the national energy-mix in the near future. Relatively high population growth, and a better economic growth, give more pressure to increase the energy supply (fuel and electricity) Most popular RE sources: Solar PV, Pico/ Micro/Mini Hydro, Bioenergy, with their own limitation and benefit, in particularly their site specific, low energy-density and intermittent profile. However, Ocean Energy have a better source potential, (Ocean area almost 2/3 of whole Indonesia area: a Maritime Continent) but very limited activities development in Indonesia. so, it can be

Produc[on Consump[on

2010

2025

Let me talk briey about the current energy situa[on in Indonesia, which is remain dominated heavily by fossil fuel oil un[l now. Indonesia already a net oil importer since almost a decade ago. Therefore, the New and Renewable Energy sources and also Energy eciency should subs[tute the Fossil fuel oil as soon and as much as possible. Increasing concern on Fossil Fuel Oil availability and affordability limitation made a paradigm shift in national energy policy have to give much more role and hope to New and Renewable Energy Sources and Energy Efficiency in the national energy-mix in the near future........ etc

Low Carbon Energy Development & BPPTs Experiences (1980 now)

BPPT has been developing energy technology to support sustainable energy for more than 30 years; However, the related technology remains in their pre-commercializa[on stage. Implementa[on of low carbon energy in Indonesia has not take-o due to non technology barriers, such as condi[ons in the down stream and non integra[on of upstream and process of Low Carbon Energy development, almost all types of Renewable Energy source; such as Solar (PV & Thermal), Micro/Mini Hydro, Biomass Energy, Biofuels, Wind Energy, Ocean Energy (OTEC, Wave, Current), etc.
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For more than 30 years, BPPT has been ac[vely engaged in the development of sustainable energy in the form of renewable energy and low carbon energy development. Many technologies involved in the development ac[vi[es, but their commercialliza[on through proper industrializa[on remain not existant. On the other hand, however, implementa[on and applica[on of sustainable energy and low carbon energy in Indonesia has not been very succesful due to the inadequate support in the down stream and non-integra[on of upstream and process, such as biofuels,biomass energy and clean coal energy.

Pilot Plant Bio-Ethanol & energy Planta[on -PV Applica[ons & Pilo[ngs (Housing, Rural, Pumping, etc)

PV Tes[ng Facility/Lab.

Energy Eciency Applica[ons & Audit in Energy Intensive Industries Wind Energy Technology (Low Velocity) Smart Grid

Biomass PV Hybrid Gasica[on Pilo[ng Microturbine Geothermal Cogenera[on Pilot plant Appl. Proj. Microhydro Pilo[ng OTEC Bali 1979: (Design) 1985: 1990: 1995 2003

Biohydrogen Ocean Current Prototyping Produc[on

Biomass/ Biogas Power Genera[on

2006 2010:

2012 -

-Solar Village Project

Solar Agro Drying -Solar Thermal Pump -Solar Thermal Timber Drying

Biofuels for TransportaIon Biodiesel Plant Dev.

Renewable Energy IndonesiaProject

OWC Prototype (Baron)

Small Geothermal Power Plant PV Industry Prototyping Feasibility Assessment

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Let me show you BPPTs [meline ac[vi[es on RET using this slide. As shown, BPPT has began ac[ve in RET as early as 1979, a year amer its established. Many of them were discon[nue, however some of them remain con[nue un[l now, such as in the eld of Solar Energy, mainly in Photovoltaic, Biofuel: Bioethanol and Biodiesel, etc. Some ac[vi[es related to Ocean Energy are hilighted

Indonesia Archipelago: a MariIme ConInent

Islands = 17,480 Ocean = 5.8 million km2 Ocean EEZ = 2.7 million km2 Costline = 95,180 km Population (2010) = 236 million

Source PotenIal Mapping:

Source: Ray et.al. (2005): A Brief Overview of Tides in the Indonesia Seas

R&D: Ocean Current Power GeneraIon (OCPG) Prototype (2010-2011)

Consist of several ac[vi[es: Source Poten[al Mapping (Numerical Model & Measurement) Design Engineering Fabrica[on and Laboratorium Test Field Test

LocaIons of Numerical Mapping Study Results

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Selayar Strait Tomini Bay Lembeh Strait Alas Strait Bali Strait Nusa Penida (Ceningan) Strait Sape Strait Lombok Strait Linta Strait and Molo Strait (P. Flores P. Komodo) Flores Strait, Lewotobi Strait, Selat Solor Strait Dampier Strait and Sele Strait (Sorong) Kurudu Strait and Dombo Strait (Cendrawasih Bay)

RecommendaIons
Compare to the other type of Renewable Energy (RE) sources, the ocean energy technology seems lack behind. However, almost all of the RE technology s[ll in the early stage of its commercial applica[ons in Indonesia. Therefore, the Ocean Energy technology development could be accelerated to join the eort to give us the so called low-carbon energy supply for the sustainable development and society. At present stage, the sources poten[al Mapping very crucial to accelerate the dissemina[on of the Ocean Energy technology, morover, a spa[al approach need to be added due to various ac[vi[es (transporta[on, shery, etc) present in the same area or loca[ons. Integra[on with the electricity distribu[on system: Micro and Smart Grid technology development nowadays can give benet to accelerate the Ocean Energy development and need to be integrated

Terima Kasih

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