Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
30 October 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued ....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Over
Valued ......................................................................6
Automobiles & Parts
Over Valued .........................................................................................6
Banks
Under Valued ...................................................................................6
Beverages
Under Valued ..................................................................................7
Chemicals
Under Valued ......................................7
Construction - Building Materials & Fittings
Construction - Heavy Construction
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30 October 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
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30 October 2013
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Page 4 of 17
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVON RUBBER
550.00
316.50
550.50
Neutral
Sell
496
0.86
BAE SYSTEMS
454.00
300.80
468.00
Neutral
Buy
600
0.66
CHEMRING GROUP
223.00
210.70
321.10
Neutral
Buy
319
0.65
COBHAM
281.00
190.10
307.70
Neutral
Neutral
284
0.76
MEGGITT
563.00
366.20
564.00
Neutral
Sell
497
1.24
QINETIQ GROUP
199.00
179.00
211.10
Neutral
Sell
122
0.63
1160.00
829.44
1230.62
Neutral
Buy
1479
0.95
295.30
185.90
295.30
Neutral
Sell
264
1.63
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
SENIOR
Target
Beta
SMITHS GROUP
1414.00
1018.00
1455.00
Neutral
Neutral
1449
0.70
1919.00
1505.00
1981.00
Neutral
Sell
1662
0.49
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
GKN
363.40
201.00
376.20
Neutral
Sell
-1826
1.98
INCHCAPE
634.00
397.60
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2992
1.35
LOOKERS
127.25
71.50
128.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
673
1.17
PENDRAGON
37.50
13.50
39.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
266
0.96
TOROTRAK
27.63
23.50
35.50
Neutral
Sell
13
0.68
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARCLAYS
266.05
210.15
308.39
Neutral
Sell
Target
-649
Beta
2.12
686.70
595.80
769.90
Neutral
Buy
839
1.35
1.90
78.01
40.57
80.37
Neutral
Sell
364.80
266.10
384.90
Neutral
Sell
-103
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1543.50
1395.00
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3341
1.79
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARR (AG)
528.00
432.20
588.50
Neutral
Sell
430
0.52
BRITVIC
619.50
359.20
619.50
Sell
Buy
847
0.67
DIAGEO
2027.00
1771.00
2136.50
Sell
Buy
2357
0.52
SABMILLER
3287.00
2619.00
3657.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5233
0.92
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Target
Beta
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Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ALENT
347.00
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3743
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
282.30
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
543
1.11
CARCLO
389.00
342.75
501.00
Neutral
Sell
123
0.73
2618.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3303
1.06
262.60
204.20
275.00
Neutral
Buy
299
1.01
1.41
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2993.00
2190.00
2997.00
Neutral
Buy
3987
VICTREX
1668.00
1418.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1347
1.17
SYNTHOMER
252.30
146.00
257.80
Neutral
Buy
374
1.05
ZOTEFOAMS
180.50
180.50
224.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
287
1.01
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
136.50
81.00
137.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
455
1522.00
1090.00
1580.00
Neutral
Sell
1076
0.97
75.75
50.00
80.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
562
1.11
MARSHALLS
172.75
87.50
184.00
Neutral
Neutral
179
1.37
NORCROS
19.75
11.75
21.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
224
1.02
195.80
102.00
200.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
994
1.61
41.50
22.00
45.50
Neutral
Sell
36
0.91
1812.00
1060.00
1815.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
15501
1.93
235.50
143.13
241.00
Neutral
Neutral
229
1.01
3309.00
2636.64
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
10462
1.32
ALUMASC GROUP
CRH
LOW & BONAR
SIG
TITON HOLDINGS
TRAVIS PERKINS
TYMAN
WOLSELEY
Target
0.54
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BALFOUR BEATTY
285.90
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1101
0.68
BOOT (HENRY)
185.00
123.50
201.00
Neutral
Sell
113
0.71
CARILLION
302.10
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Buy
366
0.98
CLARKE (T)
66.00
40.00
72.25
Neutral
Buy
84
0.68
COSTAIN GROUP
Target
Beta
287.25
226.25
306.00
Neutral
Buy
417
0.50
GALLIFORD TRY
1151.00
678.00
1157.00
Neutral
Sell
827
0.76
KELLER
1025.00
565.00
1161.00
Neutral
Sell
527
1.25
KIER GROUP
1797.00
1106.00
1797.00
Neutral
Sell
1604
0.82
806.00
508.00
828.00
Neutral
Buy
986
0.60
122.00
95.00
147.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
263
#NA
39.50
22.00
39.50
Sell
Sell
-9
0.45
POCHIN'S
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
340.50
181.30
355.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1017
1.60
BELLWAY
1518.00
951.00
1534.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
10642
0.93
2450.00
1482.00
2450.00
Neutral
Sell
-2205
0.47
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
790.00
489.30
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
25826
1.05
382.00
220.00
385.00
Neutral
Sell
-376
#NA
0.49
316.25
148.00
354.75
Neutral
Sell
147
1255.00
695.55
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4367
1.06
REDROW
263.90
154.00
263.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
423
0.84
TAYLOR WIMPEY
111.50
56.65
113.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
852
1.45
PERSIMMON
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1120.00
999.50
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
1060
0.63
690.50
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
892
0.99
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
145.00
105.50
148.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
290
1.29
INVENSYS
503.50
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
296
1.33
LAIRD
247.50
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
454
1.99
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1295.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1163
1.22
RENISHAW
1625.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2085
1.31
SPECTRIS
2286.00
1719.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2849
1.48
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
183.50
65.00
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-449
0.70
TT ELECTRONICS
199.75
114.00
202.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
441
1.64
XAAR
818.00
258.00
898.00
Neutral
Sell
422
1.00
DIALIGHT
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
130.75
54.63
135.75
Neutral
Buy
167
1.06
BODYCOTE
657.00
362.70
685.00
Neutral
Neutral
640
1.51
CASTINGS
423.63
291.00
450.00
Neutral
Buy
569
0.93
VESUVIUS
480.00
280.31
490.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1757
2.20
FENNER
410.70
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Buy
575
1.44
HALMA
552.00
411.50
578.00
Neutral
Sell
397
0.84
484.50
372.00
484.50
Neutral
Buy
558
1.25
1514.00
934.50
1537.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3819
1.31
300.00
240.30
318.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
504
1.82
2866.00
2278.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2137
0.97
62.88
35.40
76.39
Neutral
Sell
-38
0.76
SPIRAX-SARCO
2932.00
1938.54
3090.00
Neutral
Sell
1779
0.69
VITEC GROUP
718.00
559.00
718.00
Neutral
Sell
506
1.33
WEIR GROUP
2320.00
1710.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2311
1.31
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
452.90
392.10
523.50
Neutral
Neutral
Target
479
0.40
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
286.50
248.60
302.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
507
0.35
SAINSBURY (J)
398.00
321.90
400.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
750
0.58
TESCO
369.10
315.00
387.75
Neutral
Sell
304
0.74
THORNTONS
114.50
28.63
114.50
Neutral
Sell
102
0.83
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
2196.00
1365.00
2196.00
Sell
Sell
1757
0.57
CRANSWICK
1074.00
733.00
1189.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1865
0.35
DAIRY CREST
535.00
342.90
535.00
Sell
Sell
444
0.83
DEVRO
312.10
289.90
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
511
0.37
PREMIER FOODS
180.00
59.75
185.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
289
1.22
798.00
724.00
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1374
0.62
2548.00
2290.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2152
0.57
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
26.38
24.00
29.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
46
0.65
527.50
330.30
577.00
Neutral
Neutral
529
0.56
1520.00
1164.00
1667.00
Neutral
Sell
1265
1.28
629.00
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
255
0.85
1.53
Target
Beta
49.00
20.60
49.00
Sell
Sell
45
254.25
108.00
258.25
Neutral
Sell
154
0.90
39.38
23.00
41.50
Sell
Sell
10
1.09
0.68
412.80
299.00
412.80
Neutral
Buy
605
1130.00
670.00
1185.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2116
0.59
83.25
39.00
88.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
125
1.10
KINGFISHER
375.10
268.90
420.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
563
0.98
485.60
359.00
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
761
0.50
74.00
53.50
75.00
Neutral
Buy
87
0.78
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
385.75
271.00
492.75
Neutral
Sell
134
0.28
NEXT
MOTHERCARE
5205.00
3542.00
5250.00
Neutral
Neutral
5401
0.63
TED BAKER
1713.00
935.00
2017.00
Neutral
Sell
1062
0.60
88.00
47.00
94.00
Neutral
Sell
82
1.55
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
149.00
130.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
118
0.45
CONSORT MEDICAL
881.50
660.50
902.50
Neutral
Sell
683
0.37
OPTOS
157.00
106.75
215.25
Neutral
Buy
176
1.09
797.50
638.00
803.00
Neutral
Sell
686
0.33
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
782.50
601.00
823.50
Neutral
Neutral
758
HEADLAM GROUP
385.00
302.50
415.00
Neutral
Buy
449
0.75
79.75
55.25
87.50
Neutral
Sell
48
0.70
HORNBY
Target
0.29
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
991.00
665.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
432
CSR
551.00
332.00
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1487
1.06
65.50
30.75
83.25
Neutral
Neutral
69
1.00
FILTRONIC
Target
Beta
0.63
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
283.00
235.10
552.00
Neutral
Sell
214
1.09
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
115.00
115.00
169.20
Buy
Strong Buy
390
0.88
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
142.50
140.00
226.25
Neutral
Sell
-37
0.95
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1270.00
1019.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-538
0.58
AMLIN
433.20
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1635
0.47
BEAZLEY
221.30
167.30
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
1011
0.61
CATLIN GROUP
514.00
455.30
552.50
Neutral
Neutral
496
0.29
0.43
ADMIRAL GROUP
HISCOX
667.50
463.32
686.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2022
1020.00
734.00
1020.00
Neutral
Buy
1280
0.28
128.80
107.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
779
0.36
NOVAE GROUP
550.50
345.00
550.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3662
0.39
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
2233.00
2030.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
3216
Beta
0.96
150.50
65.75
157.80
Neutral
Sell
115
1.51
TUI TRAVEL
384.00
246.70
401.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
657
1.06
900.00
726.00
969.00
Neutral
Sell
781
0.24
GREENE KING
838.50
589.00
897.50
Neutral
Sell
633
0.87
LADBROKES
193.00
167.40
243.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
318
0.85
1822.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Buy
2108
1.10
568.50
456.00
615.50
Neutral
Neutral
552
1.33
391.50
296.00
460.00
Neutral
Sell
255
0.89
123.40
101.30
156.00
Neutral
Sell
42
1.28
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
PUNCH TAVERNS
13.87
6.16
15.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
45
0.98
RANK GROUP
150.00
137.30
177.50
Neutral
Neutral
150
1.01
RESTAURANT GROUP
575.50
364.00
575.50
Neutral
Sell
462
0.66
WETHERSPOON (JD)
729.50
493.80
767.00
Neutral
Neutral
738
0.55
WHITBREAD
3466.00
2314.00
3466.00
Sell
Sell
2450
1.05
WILLIAM HILL
399.20
305.06
494.50
Neutral
Neutral
427
0.79
MARSTON'S
153.10
118.80
165.50
Neutral
Sell
-15
1.08
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
442.00
294.10
442.00
Neutral
Sell
402
1.23
CHESNARA
294.75
176.50
296.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
577
0.62
215.30
133.30
215.30
Sell
Strong Buy
547
1.82
OLD MUTUAL
204.80
166.10
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
437
1.54
PRUDENTIAL
1275.00
839.50
1276.00
Sell
Neutral
1318
1.82
677.50
379.70
679.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7410
0.88
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
17
Target
Beta
30 October 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 10 of
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
177.37
102.00
177.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
928.00
709.00
950.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.42
55.75
31.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.00
1.04
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
Target
Beta
0.39
799.00
451.25
835.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3556
1045.00
747.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5566
0.87
INFORMA
554.50
380.50
556.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.51
ITE GROUP
319.00
183.50
319.00
Neutral
Buy
201
1.38
ITV
191.40
85.75
195.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.54
12.50
10.75
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1.11
0.60
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
1365.00
1119.00
1365.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
PHOTO-ME INTL.
133.00
49.00
133.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.81
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
302.50
269.00
302.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.06
THOMSON REUTERS
38.58
26.85
38.58
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.39
STV GROUP
325.00
100.00
330.00
Neutral
Sell
240
0.86
ST.IVES
183.50
99.50
188.00
Neutral
Sell
159
1.34
TRINITY MIRROR
130.00
58.25
132.25
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.53
1.33
UBM
690.50
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
WILMINGTON GROUP
219.25
127.75
219.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.83
1327.00
795.50
1344.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.25
WPP
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
GLENCORE XSTRATA
LONMIN
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
1517.50
1207.00
2072.00
Neutral
Neutral
1575
Beta
1.74
219.00
161.00
289.00
Neutral
Neutral
230
1.03
1.27
888.50
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Neutral
942
1949.00
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Buy
2450
1.41
342.25
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
1037
#NA
328.90
240.84
380.10
Sell
Buy
418
1.86
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4762.00
3972.00
7435.00
Neutral
Sell
3179
0.51
RIO TINTO
3193.50
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2400
1.44
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1080.00
992.00
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3037
2.17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1248.00
1000.50
1329.50
Neutral
Sell
937
BP
477.50
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1060
1.04
CAIRN ENERGY
280.00
251.80
296.10
Neutral
Sell
-41
1.25
0.76
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
Target
Beta
0.81
9.90
5.44
10.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
89
889.50
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
612
1.25
74.00
48.50
80.38
Neutral
Sell
-58
1.21
1.45
347.40
321.30
400.20
Neutral
Buy
423
2264.50
2077.50
2365.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8598
0.78
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
397.90
306.38
417.00
Neutral
Neutral
408
0.53
TULLOW OIL
936.00
936.00
1445.00
Neutral
Sell
709
1.08
816.00
720.50
915.50
Neutral
Sell
756
1.40
PREMIER OIL
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17
30 October 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 11 of
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
111.50
98.05
140.38
Neutral
Buy
Beta
157
0.85
398.60
338.50
432.50
Neutral
Sell
332
0.75
4857.00
3704.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
5035
0.33
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.37
0.32
3.58
Buy
Sell
Target
-0
Beta
3312.50
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
10041
0.47
422.30
317.50
422.30
Neutral
Sell
274
0.38
0.18
0.89
691.50
569.00
780.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1355
1637.50
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Buy
2357
0.49
2.68
1.33
2.83
Buy
Sell
-2
0.38
0.79
IXICO
54.50
51.50
568.75
Buy
Sell
-164
SHIRE
2773.00
1727.00
2814.00
Neutral
Sell
2015
0.69
SKYEPHARMA
95.50
43.50
101.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
173
0.51
VERNALIS
29.00
19.38
31.00
Neutral
Sell
14
0.76
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
480.00
322.90
489.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
784
1.24
BRITISH LAND
632.00
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Buy
898
1.14
2564.00
1999.00
2574.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5584
1.32
592.00
451.50
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1302
1.07
HAMMERSON
541.50
458.70
554.00
Neutral
Buy
607
1.41
1.22
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
INTU PROPERTIES
347.60
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
627
999.00
762.50
999.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1934
1.22
31.75
24.25
37.50
Neutral
Sell
-178
0.78
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
130.00
103.20
130.20
Neutral
Sell
-7
0.33
MCKAY SECURITIES
187.25
131.50
187.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
314
0.50
471.00
347.75
500.00
Neutral
Sell
263
0.57
324.50
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
127
0.22
48.50
30.75
50.00
Sell
Sell
-414
0.43
1.96
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
SEGRO
331.40
221.60
336.70
Neutral
Sell
-328
SHAFTESBURY
613.00
524.50
668.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
932
1.13
223.50
178.75
230.00
Neutral
Sell
0.95
WORKSPACE GROUP
498.00
293.90
498.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1585
1.10
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17
30 October 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 12 of
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
355.20
225.00
365.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
716
Beta
0.72
44.50
22.75
45.25
Neutral
Sell
-58
0.55
0.80
CLS HOLDINGS
1204.00
656.50
1260.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3120
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
4140.00
2706.00
4200.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
15601
0.56
226.75
143.00
226.75
Neutral
Sell
208
1.14
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
GRAINGER
193.90
109.90
193.90
Sell
Sell
118
1.64
HELICAL BAR
308.00
178.00
308.00
Neutral
Sell
221
0.83
38.00
21.50
38.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
243
0.60
6700.00
4350.00
6975.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
19707
0.69
100.00
51.75
100.00
Sell
Sell
-226
1.10
1.56
78.75
61.50
80.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
221
648.00
403.20
664.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1879
0.68
85.00
72.50
90.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
385
0.42
ST MODWEN PROPS.
358.00
201.00
361.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
671
1.68
UNITE GROUP
400.50
260.70
408.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1728
1.93
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
88.50
76.75
162.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
146
0.66
2576.00
1975.75
2650.00
Neutral
Sell
1533
1.49
COMPUTACENTER
575.00
333.29
575.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1494
0.85
KOFAX
375.00
260.75
388.00
Neutral
Sell
318
1.11
0.78
AVEVA GROUP
INNOVATION GROUP
Target
Beta
32.00
20.75
32.00
Sell
Sell
27
812.50
544.73
816.09
Neutral
Buy
1091
0.84
PHOENIX IT GROUP
150.50
130.00
184.00
Neutral
Sell
-282
0.59
0.58
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
115.00
64.00
124.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
272
2050.00
1275.00
2190.00
Neutral
Neutral
2213
0.62
334.70
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
450
0.70
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
448.30
323.50
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1307
1.12
BREWIN DOLPHIN
287.20
169.80
287.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
689
0.85
8700.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
86487
0.85
455.00
288.00
474.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1511
0.89
0.64
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
Target
Beta
219.50
155.00
228.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1715
1264.00
833.50
1300.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5126
0.78
103.30
90.00
110.40
Neutral
Sell
82
0.77
CHARLES TAYLOR
5.39
0.96
5.70
Neutral
Sell
-133
0.77
HENDERSON GROUP
HELPHIRE GROUP
211.10
109.10
211.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
839
1.44
ICAP
375.00
280.80
422.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
880
0.94
495.00
287.20
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2357
1.77
INVESTEC
436.20
364.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2812
1.54
1671.00
930.00
1682.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6946
1.32
91.00
71.80
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-5114
1.23
1640.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5742
0.83
SCHRODERS
2678.00
1518.00
2690.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8586
1.42
SCHRODERS NV
2194.00
1220.00
2217.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11883
1.38
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17
30 October 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 13 of
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
315.50
157.75
315.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
643
0.79
AGGREKO
1584.00
1442.00
2254.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4351
1.04
AMEC
1170.00
965.50
1170.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3323
0.98
666.00
364.60
730.00
Neutral
Buy
982
1.69
1263.00
954.50
1263.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2605
0.40
677.00
372.50
677.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2348
0.84
1367.00
1009.00
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2776
0.49
UK MAIL GROUP
585.00
265.00
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1644
0.47
CAPITA
988.50
713.00
1057.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1907
0.57
62.50
34.54
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
444
0.79
0.78
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
COMPASS GROUP
896.50
680.00
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1997
BERENDSEN
959.50
563.00
962.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3395
1.02
DE LA RUE
852.00
845.00
1075.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2321
#NA
0.21
DIGNITY
1393.00
922.31
1567.68
Neutral
Buy
1758
DIPLOMA
682.00
435.00
690.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1344
1.00
ELECTROCOMP.
295.30
203.90
298.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
894
1.03
ESSENTRA PLC
797.50
543.00
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1287
1.13
G4S
258.40
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
926
0.42
HAYS
122.50
76.70
124.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
394
0.99
HOMESERVE
233.50
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
941
0.93
INTERSERVE
631.00
349.10
631.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3142
1.15
3284.00
2819.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4472
0.74
53.13
33.63
53.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
237
1.03
0.61
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
25.75
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
190
MENZIES (JOHN)
791.00
573.00
841.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2028
1.37
477.10
346.40
502.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
813
1.19
MITIE GROUP
313.70
248.00
314.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1043
0.50
40.00
33.75
130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
664
0.28
OFFICE2OFFICE
1040.00
770.00
1185.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1870
0.72
PREMIER FARNELL
PAYPOINT
220.10
165.50
238.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
566
1.40
REGUS
205.80
96.00
214.10
Neutral
Sell
70
1.46
RENTOKIL INITIAL
112.80
85.00
112.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
456
1.31
REXAM
521.00
432.56
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1813
0.90
RICARDO
601.50
349.63
661.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1888
1.04
ROBERT WALTERS
328.00
191.00
335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
964
1.11
RPC GROUP
514.50
378.00
514.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1645
0.72
RPS GROUP
293.20
195.50
293.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
920
1.49
SERCO GROUP
552.00
516.50
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2261
0.52
SHANKS GROUP
105.00
73.00
107.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
369
1.55
64.00
32.25
70.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
339
1.17
189.00
92.25
206.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
539
0.64
78.50
40.50
78.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
328
0.81
VP
500.00
313.00
510.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2295
0.65
WYG
110.50
52.75
111.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
200
0.78
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
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17
30 October 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 14 of
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
369.40
212.50
369.40
Sell
Buy
Target
468
Beta
0.92
44.24
34.31
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
87
0.66
INMARSAT
733.50
542.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
278
0.52
KCOM GROUP
101.40
68.25
101.40
Neutral
Buy
134
0.97
TELECOM PLUS
1560.00
830.00
1560.00
Sell
Sell
913
0.05
226.30
154.45
229.30
Neutral
Sell
140
0.46
VODAFONE GROUP
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
334.90
195.70
336.60
Sell
Sell
224
1.17
535.00
350.00
540.00
Neutral
Neutral
566
0.91
CLARKSON
2045.00
1150.00
2370.00
Neutral
Sell
1252
0.77
EASYJET
1311.00
619.00
1448.00
Neutral
Sell
851
0.78
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
117.50
92.00
182.47
Neutral
Strong Buy
275
0.85
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1120.00
776.00
1148.00
Neutral
Sell
779
0.69
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1738.00
1220.00
1738.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2912
0.94
NATIONAL EXPRESS
260.00
164.50
274.90
Neutral
Sell
247
1.33
NORTHGATE
450.75
249.00
458.75
Neutral
Sell
355
1.22
STAGECOACH GROUP
343.20
265.90
343.20
Neutral
Buy
459
0.87
WINCANTON
132.00
43.75
139.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
282
0.83
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
360.70
310.80
402.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
555
0.51
NATIONAL GRID
788.00
682.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
965
0.49
PENNON GROUP
694.50
598.00
727.50
Neutral
Sell
574
0.66
SSE
1441.00
1364.00
1676.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2577
0.44
SEVERN TRENT
1885.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1502
0.39
718.50
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
754
0.51
www.intellisys.uk.com
17
Target
Beta
30 October 2013
+44 (0)1189 333606
Page 15 of
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
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