Counting the cost of Nato's mission in Libya Vehicles belonging to pro-Gaddafi forces explode after a Nato airstrike on a road

between Bengha i and !"dabiyah on #$ %arch #$&& Nato insists it took e'ery precaution to a'oid ci'ilian casualties but obser'ers belie'e it would ha'e been 'ery difficult for Nato to a'oid them altogether Continue reading the main story Libya Crisis

(inal days Bloody birth )ow Gaddafi died Libya explained

!s Nato ends its mission in Libya* "ust how many ci'ilians lost their li'es in the air strikes+ !s the BBC's ,onathan Beale explains* we may ne'er know-

.he famous phrase* attributed to %ark .wain* is that there are /lies* damned lies and statistics/-

0n war* establishing the truth is e'en harder-

!s the dust settles on Nato's se'en-month mission o'er Libya* there are few reliable statistics-

No-one is really sure* at least for now* how much this war has cost in human li'es-

1stimates of those killed - including pro-Gaddafi forces* /rebel/ forces and ci'ilians - currently 'ary between #*$$$ and 2$*$$$-

Gi'en that the 3nited Nations' mandate for the mission o'er Libya was to /protect ci'ilians/* the Nato alliance has always maintained that it took e'ery precaution to a'oid such casualties-

.he alliance says precautions often included round-the-clock sur'eillance from the air to establish /patterns of life/ to ensure that ci'ilians would not be hit-

4n a number of occasions* planned air strikes were called off at the last minute because of fears that ci'ilians could be hidden among legitimate military targets'%urderers and barbarians'

.o a'oid undermining the mission* the alliance also relied hea'ily on /precision/ weapons - bombs and missiles with /low collateral damage/ guided by either laser or G56 systems-

.he 7!('s Chief of the !ir 6taff* 6ir 6tephen 8alton* told %5s last week that these weapons /performed well abo'e the predicted le'el/- 0n one example* more than 9:; of Brimstone missiles fired by 7!( warplanes directly hit their target- .he few that did not* still landed within a few yards7!( .yphoon fighter "et at Gioia del Colle air base in 0taly after first mission o'er Libya on #& %arch #$&& <5hoto supplied by %o8= Nato carried out nearly &$*$$$ strike sorties during its se'en-month mission in Libya

But Nato did not only use precision munitions-

British !rmy !pache ground attack helicopters - used later in the campaign fired some >*$$$ rounds from their 2$mm cannon- 0t is a weapon designed to pro'ide an arc of fire* and its use in !fghanistan has been responsible for a number of ci'ilian casualties-

)owe'er* once again* there is no hard proof that the !paches used in Libya led to any ci'ilian deaths-

.hroughout the se'en-month campaign* Nato admitted there had been one weapon /malfunction/-

4n &9 ,une* se'eral ci'ilians were reported to ha'e been killed when a missile hit buildings in .ripoli- ! Nato spokesman later said that /a potential weapon system failure occurred and this caused the weapon not to hit the intended target/-

1'en then* the alliance has disputed claims by the Gaddafi regime that ci'ilians were the 'ictims of its air strikes-

!n attack on what Nato says was a command and control centre in 6urman on #$ ,une reportedly killed two children and their mother-

0t was this strike that prompted Colonel Gaddafi to take to the airwa'es to denounce Nato as /murderers and barbarians/-

Claims by the regime that Nato had killed hundreds of ci'ilians became part of its propaganda to try to halt the bombardment-

0n the middle of ,uly* the Libyan health office claimed the air strikes had killed &*&$: ci'ilians and wounded >*?$$- But* again* no-one has been in a position to 'erify these claims'7e'enge killings'

No-one within Nato* though* can claim that its air strikes did not cause any ci'ilian deaths-

!nti-Gaddafi fighters fire )owit ers at pro-Gaddafi forces near 6irte on #2 6eptember #$&& Ci'ilians are known to ha'e been caught up in the ground fighting between pro- and anti-Gaddafi forces

%uch of the fighting took place in built-up areas and a known tactic of proGaddafi forces was to hide among the ci'ilian population-

.he sheer scale of the Nato bombing campaign - with 9*@?: strike sorties suggests that it would ha'e been 'ery hard to a'oid ci'ilian casualties-

.he 3A alone - carrying out one-fifth of the total strike sorties - fired &*>#$ precision-guided munitions* and hit more than @$$ targets-

0n 6eptember* the 7oyal 3nited 6er'ices 0nstitute <7360=* an independent think tank* estimated that /between ?$-&$$ ci'ilians had perished from air strikes in the six months of the campaign/- But* it added the ca'eat that the /figures Bfor ci'ilian casualtiesC 'ary wildly/-

.wel'e years after Nato's bombing campaign o'er Aoso'o* there is still no accurate figure for the number of ci'ilians killed- .he estimates are between #$$ and ?$$-

0t is likely that* in Libya* most ci'ilian casaulties were caused by fighting on the ground between pro-Gaddafi and rebel forces-

.here ha'e already been well-documented reports of re'enge killings by both sides-

Nato says it has no teams on the ground to assess the impact of its air strikes on the ci'ilian population-

0t has been left to organisations such as !mnesty 0nternational and )uman 7ights Datch to try to establish the scale of the killing - including examining the effects of Nato's air strikes-

But it might take years to get a picture of what really happened- !nd* e'en then the figures are likely be open to dispute-