(Sampling distribution)

A sample is drawn with replacement from a population if an element selected for the sample is put back into the population before the next one is chosen. EXAMPLE 1 ( sampling with replacement ) A population consists of the numbers 1, 2, and 3. The population mean and the population standard deviation are:

=2

(1 ) 2 + (2 ) 2 + (3 ) 2 = 3

2 3

The following table gives all possible samples of size n = 2 drawn with replacement from the population: Sample (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) Mean of X = 2 Standard deviation of X = Observation:
E( X ) = The standard deviation of X = 1 3

Sample Mean X 1 1.5 2 1.5 2 2.5 2 2.5 3

Remark 1+1 1= 2 1+ 2 1.5 = 2 1+ 3 2= 2 2 +1 1.5 = 2 2+2 2= 2 2+3 2.5 = 2 3 +1 2= 2 3+ 2 2.5 = 2 3+3 3= 2

THEOREM 1 (sampling with replacement)

If all possible random samples of size n are drawn with replacement from a finite population of size N with mean and standard deviation . Then: (a) (b) (c) The mean of all values of the sample mean X is equal to . The standard deviation of all values of the sample mean X is equal to . n When n is large (n 30) , the sample mean X is approximately normal and hence
X n is approximately normally distributed with mean 0 and standard deviation 1.

NOTE
n is called the standard error of the sample mean X .

(The figures below illustrate theorem 1.)

(The figure below illustrates theorem 1.)

Central Limit Theorem

For sampling with replacement from a population with mean and standard X deviation , the distribution of will approach the standard normal distribution

n as n gets larger.

NOTE
It can be shown that if the population is normal and the sampling is with replacement, then X n

has a normal distribution with mean 0 and standard deviation 1 for n = 2, 3, ... .

EXAMPLE 2
Given the population 1, 1, 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 7, find the probability that a random sample of size 36, selected with replacement, will yield a sample mean greater than 3.8 but less than 4.5

SOLUTION
The population mean and population standard deviation are respectively:

=4 = 2.234
Let X be the sample mean of a random sample of size 36, selected with replacement. Then: Mean of X = 4 Standard deviation of X = Hence: 36 = 0.3723

4.5 4 3.8 4 <Z< P(3.8 < X < 4.5) = P 0.3723 0.3723 = P(0.537 < Z < 1.343)
= 0.6153

A sample is drawn without replacement from a population if an element selected for the sample is not returned to the population before the next element of the sample is drawn.

EXAMPLE 3 ( sampling without replacement )

A population consists of the numbers 1, 2, and 3. The population mean and the population standard deviation are:

=2 = (1 ) 2 + (2 ) 2 + (3 ) 2 = 3 2 3

The following table gives all possible samples of size n = 2 drawn without replacement from the population: Sample (1, 2) (1, 3) (2, 1) (2, 3) (3, 1) (3, 2) Sample Mean X 1.5 2 1.5 2.5 2 2.5 Mean of X = 2 Standard deviation of X = 1 6 Remark 1+ 2 1.5 = 2 1+ 3 2= 2 2 +1 1.5 = 2 2+3 2.5 = 2 3 +1 2= 2 3+ 2 2.5 = 2

Observation:

E( X ) = The standard deviation of X = where n = 2 and N = 3 . n Nn N 1

THEOREM 2 (sampling without replacement)

If all possible random samples of size n are drawn without replacement from a finite population of size N with mean and standard deviation , then: (a) (b) (c) The mean of the sample mean X is equal to . Nn . n N 1 When n 30 and N 2n , X is approximately normally distributed and The standard deviation of the sample mean X is equal to

X n
REMARK
If N is large, then

Nn N 1

has the standard normal distribution.

X Nn 1 and hence has approximately a standard normal N 1 n

distribution.

(The figures below illustrate theorem 2.)

EXAMPLE 4
Five hundred castings have a mean weight of 5.02 and a standard deviation of 0.3. Find the probability that a random sample of 100 castings chosen from this group will have a combined weight between 496 and 500.

SOLUTION
Let X be the mean weight of a random sample of 100 castings. Then the mean of X is 5.02 and the standard deviation of X is 0 .3 100 Thus we have: 500 100 = 0.027 . 500 1

P(496 < combined weight < 500) = P(4.96 < X < 5)

5 5.02 4.96 5.02 = P <Z< 0.027 0.027 = P(2.22 < Z < 0.74)
= 0.2164

EXAMPLE 5
A soft-drink machine is regulated so that the amount of drink dispensed is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 500 ml per cup and a standard deviation equal to 5 ml. Periodically the machine is checked by taking a sample of 9 drinks and computing the average content. If the sample mean X of the 9 drinks falls within the interval X 2 X , the machine is thought to be operating satisfactorily; otherwise, adjustments must be made. What action should one take if a sample of 9 drinks has a mean content of 495 ml?

SOLUTION

X 2 X = 500 2

9 = 503.33 and 496.66

Since 495 is outside the interval (496.66, 503.33), adjustments must be made.

EXAMPLE 6
The heights of 1000 students are approximately normally distributed with a mean of 68.5 inches and a standard deviation of 2.7 inches. If 200 random samples of size 25 are drawn from this population and the means recorded to the nearest tenth of an inch, determine: (a) (b) The number of sample means that fall between 67.9 and 69.2 inclusive. The number of sample means falling below 67.0.

SOLUTION
(a) Let X be the mean height of a sample of size 25. Then: Mean of X = 68.5 Standard deviation of X = 2 .7 1000 25 = 0.5334 25 1000 1

The number of sample means that fall between 67.9 and 69.2 inclusive is given by

200 P(67.9 Recorded sample mean of a sample 69.2)

= 200 P( 67.85 X < 69.25 )

69.25 68.5 67.85 68.5 Z< = 200 P 0.5334 0.5334

= 200 0.8087 = 161 (b) The desired number is given by

200 P(Recorded sample mean of a sample 66.9)

= 200 P(X < 66.95)

66.95 68.5 = 200 P Z < 0.5334 = 200 P(Z < 2.9059)

= 200 0.001 84 0

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EXERCISE

1.

People using a certain elevator are considered to be drawn randomly from a large population of people with mean 80 kg and standard deviation 10 kg. What is the probability that 16 persons would have a combined weight exceeding the load limit of 1500 kg. Ans. 0

2.

A sign in an elevator reads: "Capacity 1400 kg or 20 persons". The standard deviation of the weights of all the people who might ride this elevator is 20 kg. Given that the probability that a full load of 20 persons weighs more than 1400 kg is 0.20, find the mean weight of the people. Ans. 66.24 kg

3.

The 1200 tenants of a large apartment building have weights distributed as follows: Weight (pounds) Proportion of tenants 50 0.20 100 0.30 150 0.40 200 0.10 Each elevator in the building has a load limit of 2800 pounds. If 20 tenants crowd into one elevator, what is the probability it will be overloaded? Ans. 0.024

4.

When polarized light passes through lactose sugar, it is rotated by an angle of exactly 90 o . The observed angle, however, is somewhat in error. Suppose it is normally distributed around 90 o with a standard deviation of 1.2 o . A sample of 4 independent observations is taken. What is the chance: (a) (b) (c) Ans. That the first observation exceeds 91o ? That the average exceeds 91o ? That all four observations exceed 91o ? (a) 0.2023 (b) 0.047 (c) 0.0017

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