Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 13

# THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES

School of Economics
SEMESTER 2 2012
ECON1203 / ECON2292
Final Examination
1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

## Answer all questions. All questions are not of equal value.

6.

There are 3 questions; the first two are each worth 18 marks and the third is worth
24 marks

7.

Marks for parts of questions are shown. Questions must be answered in the Exam
booklet.

8.

## Candidates may bring a non-programmable calculator to the exam.

9.

Statistical tables and formulae are provided at the end of the examination paper.

10. Answers must be written in blue or black ink. Pencils should only be used for
sketching or graphical work.
12. The paper may be retained by the candidate.

## Question 1 (18 marks)

(a) Explain what it means to say that two events are: (i) mutually exclusive; and (ii)
independent of one another. (2 marks)
(b) A survey of peoples incomes has been conducted by a market research
agency with the following results
Income category
LOW
MIDDLE
HIGH

Income range
0 INCOME < 40000
40000 INCOME < 80000
80000 INCOME

Relative frequency
0.32
0.41
0.27

## Treat the relative frequencies as probabilities and draw a probability histogram of

the income distribution, taking care to make a sensible assumption about the
upper limit of the HIGH income group.
(2 marks)
(c) Now suppose that the above information about incomes was obtained as part
of a larger survey that also collected information about the television viewing
habits of respondents, resulting in the following additional relative frequency
information
Income category
LOW
MIDDLE
HIGH
(i)
(ii)
(iii)

0.22
0.06
0.17
0.11
0.13
0.10

Never watch TV
0.04
0.13
0.04

## Again treating the relative frequencies as probabilities, find the marginal

distribution of TV viewing habits and draw a bar chart of the results.
(3 marks)
Derive the conditional probabilities of the level of INCOME given TV
viewing frequency habits (i.e. three conditional distributions, one for each
level of TV viewing). (3 marks)
Use the information to check whether the events Watch TV occasionally
and HIGH income are independent. (2 marks)

(d) The market research firm actually interviewed 400 people for the purposes of
the survey. Convert the information in the joint probability table above into
observed frequencies and merge the categories Watch TV frequently and
Watch TV occasionally. Use a Chi-squared test for a contingency table to
assess if the level of income and whether or not people watch TV are
independent of one another. (6 marks)

## Question 2 (18 marks)

(a) Explain why the Central Limit Theorem is important in sampling theory and why
the Normal distribution is important in constructing statistical inference
procedures. (2 marks)
(b) A small airline runs planes seating 8 passengers. It knows from past information
that 20% of passengers do not turn up, so its sales policy is to sell 10 tickets for
each flight and deal with an overbooking problem as and when it arises.
(i)

(ii)
(iii)

## What assumptions must the airline make if it is to use a binomial model

as a suitable one in modelling the number of passengers that turn up for a
flight? (1 mark)
Find the probability that any given plane will be overbooked? (2 marks)
If the airline gets revenue of \$100 per seat filled on the plane and it costs
them \$200 in compensation for a passenger who has to be turned away
in addition to a fare refund (assume they do not wait for a later flight),
explain with reasons whether the airline should consider reducing the
number of tickets it sells per flight if its objective is to maximize revenues
(defined as income minus compensation and returned fares per flight)?
(4 marks)

(c) (i) Now suppose another airline flying from the airport to a different destination
has aircraft that can transport 160 passengers. It currently sells 200 tickets for
each flight as it, too, has observed from experience that 20% of tickets sold are
no shows. Use the normal approximation to the binomial to find the probability
that this airline will find that a specific flight is overbooked. Explain, without going
into statistical detail, whether you think that the airline is using a viable policy if its
information is reliable? (2 marks)
(ii) Explain briefly why the answers to (b)(ii) and (c)(i) are different from one
another. (1 mark)
(d) The airline of part (c) is concerned that, in recent times, demand patterns have
changed, so it conducts a survey of 100 separate flights and finds the average
load factor (proportion of occupied seats on each aircraft) is 85% with a standard
deviation of 10%. Use the information to set up a 99% confidence interval for the
population mean, , of the number of seats occupied on all flights, stating
carefully any assumptions you make. Comment on the results (3 marks)
(e) Test the hypothesis that the mean number of passengers that will show up for
flights is 160 against a one-sided alternative :
160 at a suitable
significance level. Also find the marginal significance level, or the prob-value, or
P-value for the test. (3 marks)

(a)

,

1,

(1)

## where is a dependent variable, is a regressor variable, the

iid errors and
and
are unknown coefficients.

(b)

are

(i)

## Draw a scatter diagram which indicates a strong negative linear

relationship between and . (1 mark)

(ii)

## Draw a scatter diagram that indicates a weak positive linear

relationship between the variables (1 mark)

(iii)

## in (1) above must

Explain why the least squares estimate of
have the same sign as the sample correlation between the two
variables. (1 mark)

## Suppose that 25 annual observations are available each year from

1986 to 2010 on: the annual profit of a savings and loan company, ;
the net revenue per deposit dollar, ; and the number of offices and
agencies that the company has, . The companys aim is to develop a
model to predict the annual profits of the company in the future.
The company has access to Excel and fits a simple regression model
of the form (1) to the data. Table 1 provides some of the results
obtained from the analysis
Table 1. Excel Output for Linear Regression of Profits on Revenue
Regression Statistics
R-Square
Observations

Intercept
Revenue

0.495
25

1.3262
0.1386
0.0356
B

t Stat
9.57
-4.75

P-value
A
0.000

(c)

(i)

## Use the information provided in Table 1 above to evaluate the

missing values A and B.
(2 marks)

(ii)

## Explain what the coefficient of determination measures and use it to

obtain the sample correlation between Profits and Revenues.
(2 marks)

(iii)

Suppose that in 2011 the net revenue per deposit dollar was 4.85,
what does the model predict profits to be for that year? (1 mark)

(iv)

## Discuss with reasons whether or not you think that this is a

satisfactory model for the company to use in predicting future
profits. (3 marks)
Of course, the company also has information about the number of
offices and agencies it has (labelled Offices in the table below) and
hence decides to use this as part of a multiple regression analysis.
Selected results from this new analysis are provided in Table 2 below
Table 2: Excel output from multiple regression model

Regression Statistics
R Square
0.865
Square
0.853
Standard
Error
0.053
Observations
25

Intercept
Revenue
Offices

Coefficient
1.565
0.237
-0.00025

Standard
Error
0.079
0.056
0.00003

t Stat
19.70
4.27
-7.77

P-value
0.000
0.000
0.000

(i)

Obtain a 95% confidence interval for the true slope coefficient on the
Revenue variable and explain what it means to say that the resultant
interval is a random interval. (3 marks)

(ii)

## Discuss the results presented carefully, paying particular attention to

the signs and significance of the slope coefficients. (3 marks)

(iii)

Compare and contrast the results with those of the simple regression
model presented in Table 1. (2 marks)

(iv)

Suppose that, in 2011, the company had 9125 offices and agencies.
What is the predicted profit from the multiple regression model for
2011? (Refer (b)(iii) for further information needed.) (2 marks)

(v)

## Use the results presented in the whole of question 3 to comment on

the phenomenon of confounding in statistical modeling and on how it
can influence the specification of a suitable model for forecasting
purposes. (3 marks)

End of paper

USEFUL FORMULAE
Sample Mean:
1 n
X Xi
n i 1
Population Variance: 2

1 N
( X i ) 2

N i 1

Sample Variance:

s2

Population Mean:

1 n
( X i X )2

n 1 i 1

1 N
Xi
N i 1

P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A B )

or

## P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)

Multiplicative Law of Probability: P( A B) P( A B) P( B) P ( B A) P ( A)
or
P(A and B) = P(A|B) P(B) = P(B| A)P(A)
Binomial Distribution:

## P ( X x ) nC x p x q n x ; E(X) = np; Var(X) = npq

Z

Standardizing transformations:

(X )

(X )

/ n

(X )
s/ n

n 1s 2
2

X t

s
,n 1
2

X z

X t

s
,n 1
2

p z

n
p q

X z

p p z

2 / 2,n 1

, known

p q
, where q 1 p
n

(n 1)s 2

12 / 2,n 1

## Goodness of Fit Test:

(o i e i ) 2

,
ei
i 1

Independence Test:

unknown

( n 1)s 2

i 1 j 1

(o ij eij ) 2
eij

df = K-1

df = (K-1)(H-1)

r

s XY

s X sY

(X

( X

X )(Yi Y )

X )2

(Y

Y )2

## Least Squares Estimators of 1 and 0 in the equation: Yi 0 1 X i ei

s XY X i X Yi Y

; 0 Y 1 X
2
s 2X
Xi X

:
1

Forecast Intervals:
( X p X )2
1

n Xi X 2

Y p t , s e

Y p t , s e
2

se

( X p X )2
1
1
n Xi X 2

for Yp

where n 2 and

for E(YpXp)

ei
i 1

( n 2)

## is the estimated standard error of the

regression.
Distribution of 0 and 1 :

e2

0 N 0,

(
X
X
)
i

2
i

and

e2

1 N 1,
( X X )2
i

Table 1:

p
n

0
1
2

10

0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

0.9025

0.8100

0.7225

0.6400

0.5625

0.4900

0.4225

0.3600

0.3025

0.2500

0.2025

0.1600

0.1225

0.0900

0.0625

0.0400

0.0225

0.0100

0.0025

0.0950

0.1800

0.2550

0.3200

0.3750

0.4200

0.4550

0.4800

0.4950

0.5000

0.4950

0.4800

0.4550

0.4200

0.3750

0.3200

0.2550

0.1800

0.0950

0.0025

0.0100

0.0225

0.0400

0.0625

0.0900

0.1225

0.1600

0.2025

0.2500

0.3025

0.3600

0.4225

0.4900

0.5625

0.6400

0.7225

0.8100

0.9025

0.8574

0.7290

0.6141

0.5120

0.4219

0.3430

0.2746

0.2160

0.1664

0.1250

0.0911

0.0640

0.0429

0.0270

0.0156

0.0080

0.0034

0.0010

0.0001

0.1354

0.2430

0.3251

0.3840

0.4219

0.4410

0.4436

0.4320

0.4084

0.3750

0.3341

0.2880

0.2389

0.1890

0.1406

0.0960

0.0574

0.0270

0.0071

0.0071

0.0270

0.0574

0.0960

0.1406

0.1890

0.2389

0.2880

0.3341

0.3750

0.4084

0.4320

0.4436

0.4410

0.4219

0.3840

0.3251

0.2430

0.1354

0.0001

0.0010

0.0034

0.0080

0.0156

0.0270

0.0429

0.0640

0.0911

0.1250

0.1664

0.2160

0.2746

0.3430

0.4219

0.5120

0.6141

0.7290

0.8574

0.8145

0.6561

0.5220

0.4096

0.3164

0.2401

0.1785

0.1296

0.0915

0.0625

0.0410

0.0256

0.0150

0.0081

0.0039

0.0016

0.0005

0.0001

0.0000

0.1715

0.2916

0.3685

0.4096

0.4219

0.4116

0.3845

0.3456

0.2995

0.2500

0.2005

0.1536

0.1115

0.0756

0.0469

0.0256

0.0115

0.0036

0.0005

0.0135

0.0486

0.0975

0.1536

0.2109

0.2646

0.3105

0.3456

0.3675

0.3750

0.3675

0.3456

0.3105

0.2646

0.2109

0.1536

0.0975

0.0486

0.0135

0.0005

0.0036

0.0115

0.0256

0.0469

0.0756

0.1115

0.1536

0.2005

0.2500

0.2995

0.3456

0.3845

0.4116

0.4219

0.4096

0.3685

0.2916

0.1715

0.0000

0.0001

0.0005

0.0016

0.0039

0.0081

0.0150

0.0256

0.0410

0.0625

0.0915

0.1296

0.1785

0.2401

0.3164

0.4096

0.5220

0.6561

0.8145

0.7738

0.5905

0.4437

0.3277

0.2373

0.1681

0.1160

0.0778

0.0503

0.0313

0.0185

0.0102

0.0053

0.0024

0.0010

0.0003

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.2036

0.3281

0.3915

0.4096

0.3955

0.3602

0.3124

0.2592

0.2059

0.1563

0.1128

0.0768

0.0488

0.0284

0.0146

0.0064

0.0022

0.0004

0.0000

0.0214

0.0729

0.1382

0.2048

0.2637

0.3087

0.3364

0.3456

0.3369

0.3125

0.2757

0.2304

0.1811

0.1323

0.0879

0.0512

0.0244

0.0081

0.0011

0.0011

0.0081

0.0244

0.0512

0.0879

0.1323

0.1811

0.2304

0.2757

0.3125

0.3369

0.3456

0.3364

0.3087

0.2637

0.2048

0.1382

0.0729

0.0214

0.0000

0.0005

0.0022

0.0064

0.0146

0.0284

0.0488

0.0768

0.1128

0.1563

0.2059

0.2592

0.3124

0.3602

0.3955

0.4096

0.3915

0.3281

0.2036

0.0000

0.0000

0.0001

0.0003

0.0010

0.0024

0.0053

0.0102

0.0185

0.0313

0.0503

0.0778

0.1160

0.1681

0.2373

0.3277

0.4437

0.5905

0.7738

0.7351

0.5314

0.3771

0.2621

0.1780

0.1176

0.0754

0.0467

0.0277

0.0156

0.0083

0.0041

0.0018

0.0007

0.0002

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.2321

0.3543

0.3993

0.3932

0.3560

0.3025

0.2437

0.1866

0.1359

0.0938

0.0609

0.0369

0.0205

0.0102

0.0044

0.0015

0.0004

0.0001

0.0000

0.0305

0.0984

0.1762

0.2458

0.2966

0.3241

0.3280

0.3110

0.2780

0.2344

0.1861

0.1382

0.0951

0.0595

0.0330

0.0154

0.0055

0.0012

0.0001

0.0021

0.0146

0.0415

0.0819

0.1318

0.1852

0.2355

0.2765

0.3032

0.3125

0.3032

0.2765

0.2355

0.1852

0.1318

0.0819

0.0415

0.0146

0.0021

0.0001

0.0012

0.0055

0.0154

0.0330

0.0595

0.0951

0.1382

0.1861

0.2344

0.2780

0.3110

0.3280

0.3241

0.2966

0.2458

0.1762

0.0984

0.0305

0.0000

0.0001

0.0004

0.0015

0.0044

0.0102

0.0205

0.0369

0.0609

0.0937

0.1359

0.1866

0.2437

0.3025

0.3560

0.3932

0.3993

0.3543

0.2321

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0001

0.0002

0.0007

0.0018

0.0041

0.0083

0.0156

0.0277

0.0467

0.0754

0.1176

0.1780

0.2621

0.3771

0.5314

0.7351

0.6983

0.4783

0.3206

0.2097

0.1335

0.0824

0.0490

0.0280

0.0152

0.0078

0.0037

0.0016

0.0006

0.0002

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.2573

0.3720

0.3960

0.3670

0.3115

0.2471

0.1848

0.1306

0.0872

0.0547

0.0320

0.0172

0.0084

0.0036

0.0013

0.0004

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0406

0.1240

0.2097

0.2753

0.3115

0.3177

0.2985

0.2613

0.2140

0.1641

0.1172

0.0774

0.0466

0.0250

0.0115

0.0043

0.0012

0.0002

0.0000

0.0036

0.0230

0.0617

0.1147

0.1730

0.2269

0.2679

0.2903

0.2918

0.2734

0.2388

0.1935

0.1442

0.0972

0.0577

0.0287

0.0109

0.0026

0.0002

0.0002

0.0026

0.0109

0.0287

0.0577

0.0972

0.1442

0.1935

0.2388

0.2734

0.2918

0.2903

0.2679

0.2269

0.1730

0.1147

0.0617

0.0230

0.0036

0.0000

0.0002

0.0012

0.0043

0.0115

0.0250

0.0466

0.0774

0.1172

0.1641

0.2140

0.2613

0.2985

0.3177

0.3115

0.2753

0.2097

0.1240

0.0406

0.0000

0.0000

0.0001

0.0004

0.0013

0.0036

0.0084

0.0172

0.0320

0.0547

0.0872

0.1306

0.1848

0.2471

0.3115

0.3670

0.3960

0.3720

0.2573

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0001

0.0002

0.0006

0.0016

0.0037

0.0078

0.0152

0.0280

0.0490

0.0824

0.1335

0.2097

0.3206

0.4783

0.6983

0.6634

0.4305

0.2725

0.1678

0.1001

0.0576

0.0319

0.0168

0.0084

0.0039

0.0017

0.0007

0.0002

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.2793

0.3826

0.3847

0.3355

0.2670

0.1977

0.1373

0.0896

0.0548

0.0313

0.0164

0.0079

0.0033

0.0012

0.0004

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0515

0.1488

0.2376

0.2936

0.3115

0.2965

0.2587

0.2090

0.1569

0.1094

0.0703

0.0413

0.0217

0.0100

0.0038

0.0011

0.0002

0.0000

0.0000

0.0054

0.0331

0.0839

0.1468

0.2076

0.2541

0.2786

0.2787

0.2568

0.2188

0.1719

0.1239

0.0808

0.0467

0.0231

0.0092

0.0026

0.0004

0.0000

0.0004

0.0046

0.0185

0.0459

0.0865

0.1361

0.1875

0.2322

0.2627

0.2734

0.2627

0.2322

0.1875

0.1361

0.0865

0.0459

0.0185

0.0046

0.0004

0.0000

0.0004

0.0026

0.0092

0.0231

0.0467

0.0808

0.1239

0.1719

0.2188

0.2568

0.2787

0.2786

0.2541

0.2076

0.1468

0.0839

0.0331

0.0054

0.0000

0.0000

0.0002

0.0011

0.0038

0.0100

0.0217

0.0413

0.0703

0.1094

0.1569

0.2090

0.2587

0.2965

0.3115

0.2936

0.2376

0.1488

0.0515

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0001

0.0004

0.0012

0.0033

0.0079

0.0164

0.0313

0.0548

0.0896

0.1373

0.1977

0.2670

0.3355

0.3847

0.3826

0.2793

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0001

0.0002

0.0007

0.0017

0.0039

0.0084

0.0168

0.0319

0.0576

0.1001

0.1678

0.2725

0.4305

0.6634

0.6302

0.3874

0.2316

0.1342

0.0751

0.0404

0.0207

0.0101

0.0046

0.0020

0.0008

0.0003

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.2985

0.3874

0.3679

0.3020

0.2253

0.1556

0.1004

0.0605

0.0339

0.0176

0.0083

0.0035

0.0013

0.0004

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0629

0.1722

0.2597

0.3020

0.3003

0.2668

0.2162

0.1612

0.1110

0.0703

0.0407

0.0212

0.0098

0.0039

0.0012

0.0003

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0077

0.0446

0.1069

0.1762

0.2336

0.2668

0.2716

0.2508

0.2119

0.1641

0.1160

0.0743

0.0424

0.0210

0.0087

0.0028

0.0006

0.0001

0.0000

0.0006

0.0074

0.0283

0.0661

0.1168

0.1715

0.2194

0.2508

0.2600

0.2461

0.2128

0.1672

0.1181

0.0735

0.0389

0.0165

0.0050

0.0008

0.0000

0.0000

0.0008

0.0050

0.0165

0.0389

0.0735

0.1181

0.1672

0.2128

0.2461

0.2600

0.2508

0.2194

0.1715

0.1168

0.0661

0.0283

0.0074

0.0006

0.0000

0.0001

0.0006

0.0028

0.0087

0.0210

0.0424

0.0743

0.1160

0.1641

0.2119

0.2508

0.2716

0.2668

0.2336

0.1762

0.1069

0.0446

0.0077

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0003

0.0012

0.0039

0.0098

0.0212

0.0407

0.0703

0.1110

0.1612

0.2162

0.2668

0.3003

0.3020

0.2597

0.1722

0.0629

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0001

0.0004

0.0013

0.0035

0.0083

0.0176

0.0339

0.0605

0.1004

0.1556

0.2253

0.3020

0.3679

0.3874

0.2985

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0001

0.0003

0.0008

0.0020

0.0046

0.0101

0.0207

0.0404

0.0751

0.1342

0.2316

0.3874

0.6302

0.5987

0.3487

0.1969

0.1074

0.0563

0.0282

0.0135

0.0060

0.0025

0.0010

0.0003

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.3151

0.3874

0.3474

0.2684

0.1877

0.1211

0.0725

0.0403

0.0207

0.0098

0.0042

0.0016

0.0005

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0746

0.1937

0.2759

0.3020

0.2816

0.2335

0.1757

0.1209

0.0763

0.0439

0.0229

0.0106

0.0043

0.0014

0.0004

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0105

0.0574

0.1298

0.2013

0.2503

0.2668

0.2522

0.2150

0.1665

0.1172

0.0746

0.0425

0.0212

0.0090

0.0031

0.0008

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0010

0.0112

0.0401

0.0881

0.1460

0.2001

0.2377

0.2508

0.2384

0.2051

0.1596

0.1115

0.0689

0.0368

0.0162

0.0055

0.0012

0.0001

0.0000

0.0001

0.0015

0.0085

0.0264

0.0584

0.1029

0.1536

0.2007

0.2340

0.2461

0.2340

0.2007

0.1536

0.1029

0.0584

0.0264

0.0085

0.0015

0.0001

0.0000

0.0001

0.0012

0.0055

0.0162

0.0368

0.0689

0.1115

0.1596

0.2051

0.2384

0.2508

0.2377

0.2001

0.1460

0.0881

0.0401

0.0112

0.0010

0.0000

0.0000

0.0001

0.0008

0.0031

0.0090

0.0212

0.0425

0.0746

0.1172

0.1665

0.2150

0.2522

0.2668

0.2503

0.2013

0.1298

0.0574

0.0105

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0001

0.0004

0.0014

0.0043

0.0106

0.0229

0.0439

0.0763

0.1209

0.1757

0.2335

0.2816

0.3020

0.2759

0.1937

0.0746

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0001

0.0005

0.0016

0.0042

0.0098

0.0207

0.0403

0.0725

0.1211

0.1877

0.2684

0.3474

0.3874

0.3151

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0001

0.0003

0.0010

0.0025

0.0060

0.0135

0.0282

0.0563

0.1074

0.1969

0.3487

0.5987

Table 2:

## Binomial Probability: P(X k)

p
n

k 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95

0
1

10

0
1
2
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

0.9025

0.8100

0.7225

0.6400

0.5625

0.4900

0.4225

0.3600

0.3025

0.2500

0.2025

0.1600

0.1225

0.0900

0.0625

0.0400

0.0225

0.0100

0.0025

0.9975

0.9900

0.9775

0.9600

0.9375

0.9100

0.8775

0.8400

0.7975

0.7500

0.6975

0.6400

0.5775

0.5100

0.4375

0.3600

0.2775

0.1900

0.0975

0.8574

0.7290

0.6141

0.5120

0.4219

0.3430

0.2746

0.2160

0.1664

0.1250

0.0911

0.0640

0.0429

0.0270

0.0156

0.0080

0.0034

0.0010

0.0001

0.9928

0.9720

0.9393

0.8960

0.8438

0.7840

0.7183

0.6480

0.5748

0.5000

0.4253

0.3520

0.2818

0.2160

0.1563

0.1040

0.0607

0.0280

0.0072

0.9999

0.9990

0.9966

0.9920

0.9844

0.9730

0.9571

0.9360

0.9089

0.8750

0.8336

0.7840

0.7254

0.6570

0.5781

0.4880

0.3859

0.2710

0.1426

0.8145

0.6561

0.5220

0.4096

0.3164

0.2401

0.1785

0.1296

0.0915

0.0625

0.0410

0.0256

0.0150

0.0081

0.0039

0.0016

0.0005

0.0001

0.0000

0.9860

0.9477

0.8905

0.8192

0.7383

0.6517

0.5630

0.4752

0.3910

0.3125

0.2415

0.1792

0.1265

0.0837

0.0508

0.0272

0.0120

0.0037

0.0005

0.9995

0.9963

0.9880

0.9728

0.9492

0.9163

0.8735

0.8208

0.7585

0.6875

0.6090

0.5248

0.4370

0.3483

0.2617

0.1808

0.1095

0.0523

0.0140

1.0000

0.9999

0.9995

0.9984

0.9961

0.9919

0.9850

0.9744

0.9590

0.9375

0.9085

0.8704

0.8215

0.7599

0.6836

0.5904

0.4780

0.3439

0.1855

0.7738

0.5905

0.4437

0.3277

0.2373

0.1681

0.1160

0.0778

0.0503

0.0313

0.0185

0.0102

0.0053

0.0024

0.0010

0.0003

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.9774

0.9185

0.8352

0.7373

0.6328

0.5282

0.4284

0.3370

0.2562

0.1875

0.1312

0.0870

0.0540

0.0308

0.0156

0.0067

0.0022

0.0005

0.0000

0.9988

0.9914

0.9734

0.9421

0.8965

0.8369

0.7648

0.6826

0.5931

0.5000

0.4069

0.3174

0.2352

0.1631

0.1035

0.0579

0.0266

0.0086

0.0012

1.0000

0.9995

0.9978

0.9933

0.9844

0.9692

0.9460

0.9130

0.8688

0.8125

0.7438

0.6630

0.5716

0.4718

0.3672

0.2627

0.1648

0.0815

0.0226

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9997

0.9990

0.9976

0.9947

0.9898

0.9815

0.9688

0.9497

0.9222

0.8840

0.8319

0.7627

0.6723

0.5563

0.4095

0.2262

0.7351

0.5314

0.3771

0.2621

0.1780

0.1176

0.0754

0.0467

0.0277

0.0156

0.0083

0.0041

0.0018

0.0007

0.0002

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.9672

0.8857

0.7765

0.6554

0.5339

0.4202

0.3191

0.2333

0.1636

0.1094

0.0692

0.0410

0.0223

0.0109

0.0046

0.0016

0.0004

0.0001

0.0000

0.9978

0.9842

0.9527

0.9011

0.8306

0.7443

0.6471

0.5443

0.4415

0.3438

0.2553

0.1792

0.1174

0.0705

0.0376

0.0170

0.0059

0.0013

0.0001

0.9999

0.9987

0.9941

0.9830

0.9624

0.9295

0.8826

0.8208

0.7447

0.6563

0.5585

0.4557

0.3529

0.2557

0.1694

0.0989

0.0473

0.0158

0.0022

1.0000

0.9999

0.9996

0.9984

0.9954

0.9891

0.9777

0.9590

0.9308

0.8906

0.8364

0.7667

0.6809

0.5798

0.4661

0.3446

0.2235

0.1143

0.0328

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9998

0.9993

0.9982

0.9959

0.9917

0.9844

0.9723

0.9533

0.9246

0.8824

0.8220

0.7379

0.6229

0.4686

0.2649

0.6983

0.4783

0.3206

0.2097

0.1335

0.0824

0.0490

0.0280

0.0152

0.0078

0.0037

0.0016

0.0006

0.0002

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.9556

0.8503

0.7166

0.5767

0.4449

0.3294

0.2338

0.1586

0.1024

0.0625

0.0357

0.0188

0.0090

0.0038

0.0013

0.0004

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.9962

0.9743

0.9262

0.8520

0.7564

0.6471

0.5323

0.4199

0.3164

0.2266

0.1529

0.0963

0.0556

0.0288

0.0129

0.0047

0.0012

0.0002

0.0000

0.9998

0.9973

0.9879

0.9667

0.9294

0.8740

0.8002

0.7102

0.6083

0.5000

0.3917

0.2898

0.1998

0.1260

0.0706

0.0333

0.0121

0.0027

0.0002

1.0000

0.9998

0.9988

0.9953

0.9871

0.9712

0.9444

0.9037

0.8471

0.7734

0.6836

0.5801

0.4677

0.3529

0.2436

0.1480

0.0738

0.0257

0.0038

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9996

0.9987

0.9962

0.9910

0.9812

0.9643

0.9375

0.8976

0.8414

0.7662

0.6706

0.5551

0.4233

0.2834

0.1497

0.0444

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9998

0.9994

0.9984

0.9963

0.9922

0.9848

0.9720

0.9510

0.9176

0.8665

0.7903

0.6794

0.5217

0.3017

0.6634

0.4305

0.2725

0.1678

0.1001

0.0576

0.0319

0.0168

0.0084

0.0039

0.0017

0.0007

0.0002

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.9428

0.8131

0.6572

0.5033

0.3671

0.2553

0.1691

0.1064

0.0632

0.0352

0.0181

0.0085

0.0036

0.0013

0.0004

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.9942

0.9619

0.8948

0.7969

0.6785

0.5518

0.4278

0.3154

0.2201

0.1445

0.0885

0.0498

0.0253

0.0113

0.0042

0.0012

0.0002

0.0000

0.0000

0.9996

0.9950

0.9786

0.9437

0.8862

0.8059

0.7064

0.5941

0.4770

0.3633

0.2604

0.1737

0.1061

0.0580

0.0273

0.0104

0.0029

0.0004

0.0000

1.0000

0.9996

0.9971

0.9896

0.9727

0.9420

0.8939

0.8263

0.7396

0.6367

0.5230

0.4059

0.2936

0.1941

0.1138

0.0563

0.0214

0.0050

0.0004

1.0000

1.0000

0.9998

0.9988

0.9958

0.9887

0.9747

0.9502

0.9115

0.8555

0.7799

0.6846

0.5722

0.4482

0.3215

0.2031

0.1052

0.0381

0.0058

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9996

0.9987

0.9964

0.9915

0.9819

0.9648

0.9368

0.8936

0.8309

0.7447

0.6329

0.4967

0.3428

0.1869

0.0572

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9998

0.9993

0.9983

0.9961

0.9916

0.9832

0.9681

0.9424

0.8999

0.8322

0.7275

0.5695

0.3366

0.6302

0.3874

0.2316

0.1342

0.0751

0.0404

0.0207

0.0101

0.0046

0.0020

0.0008

0.0003

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.9288

0.7748

0.5995

0.4362

0.3003

0.1960

0.1211

0.0705

0.0385

0.0195

0.0091

0.0038

0.0014

0.0004

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.9916

0.9470

0.8591

0.7382

0.6007

0.4628

0.3373

0.2318

0.1495

0.0898

0.0498

0.0250

0.0112

0.0043

0.0013

0.0003

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.9994

0.9917

0.9661

0.9144

0.8343

0.7297

0.6089

0.4826

0.3614

0.2539

0.1658

0.0994

0.0536

0.0253

0.0100

0.0031

0.0006

0.0001

0.0000

1.0000

0.9991

0.9944

0.9804

0.9511

0.9012

0.8283

0.7334

0.6214

0.5000

0.3786

0.2666

0.1717

0.0988

0.0489

0.0196

0.0056

0.0009

0.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9994

0.9969

0.9900

0.9747

0.9464

0.9006

0.8342

0.7461

0.6386

0.5174

0.3911

0.2703

0.1657

0.0856

0.0339

0.0083

0.0006

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9997

0.9987

0.9957

0.9888

0.9750

0.9502

0.9102

0.8505

0.7682

0.6627

0.5372

0.3993

0.2618

0.1409

0.0530

0.0084

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9996

0.9986

0.9962

0.9909

0.9805

0.9615

0.9295

0.8789

0.8040

0.6997

0.5638

0.4005

0.2252

0.0712

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9997

0.9992

0.9980

0.9954

0.9899

0.9793

0.9596

0.9249

0.8658

0.7684

0.6126

0.3698

0.5987

0.3487

0.1969

0.1074

0.0563

0.0282

0.0135

0.0060

0.0025

0.0010

0.0003

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.9139

0.7361

0.5443

0.3758

0.2440

0.1493

0.0860

0.0464

0.0233

0.0107

0.0045

0.0017

0.0005

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.9885

0.9298

0.8202

0.6778

0.5256

0.3828

0.2616

0.1673

0.0996

0.0547

0.0274

0.0123

0.0048

0.0016

0.0004

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.9990

0.9872

0.9500

0.8791

0.7759

0.6496

0.5138

0.3823

0.2660

0.1719

0.1020

0.0548

0.0260

0.0106

0.0035

0.0009

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.9999

0.9984

0.9901

0.9672

0.9219

0.8497

0.7515

0.6331

0.5044

0.3770

0.2616

0.1662

0.0949

0.0473

0.0197

0.0064

0.0014

0.0001

0.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9986

0.9936

0.9803

0.9527

0.9051

0.8338

0.7384

0.6230

0.4956

0.3669

0.2485

0.1503

0.0781

0.0328

0.0099

0.0016

0.0001

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9991

0.9965

0.9894

0.9740

0.9452

0.8980

0.8281

0.7340

0.6177

0.4862

0.3504

0.2241

0.1209

0.0500

0.0128

0.0010

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9996

0.9984

0.9952

0.9877

0.9726

0.9453

0.9004

0.8327

0.7384

0.6172

0.4744

0.3222

0.1798

0.0702

0.0115

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9995

0.9983

0.9955

0.9893

0.9767

0.9536

0.9140

0.8507

0.7560

0.6242

0.4557

0.2639

0.0861

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9997

0.9990

0.9975

0.9940

0.9865

0.9718

0.9437

0.8926

0.8031

0.6513

0.4013

10

z
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9

0.0000

0.0040

0.0080

0.0120

0.0160

0.0199

0.0239

0.0279

0.0319

0.0359

0.0398

0.0438

0.0478

0.0517

0.0557

0.0596

0.0636

0.0675

0.0714

0.0753

0.0793

0.0832

0.0871

0.0910

0.0948

0.0987

0.1026

0.1064

0.1103

0.1141

0.1179

0.1217

0.1255

0.1293

0.1331

0.1368

0.1406

0.1443

0.1480

0.1517

0.1554

0.1591

0.1628

0.1664

0.1700

0.1736

0.1772

0.1808

0.1844

0.1879

0.1915

0.1950

0.1985

0.2019

0.2054

0.2088

0.2123

0.2157

0.2190

0.2224

0.2257

0.2291

0.2324

0.2357

0.2389

0.2422

0.2454

0.2486

0.2517

0.2549

0.2580

0.2611

0.2642

0.2673

0.2704

0.2734

0.2764

0.2794

0.2823

0.2852

0.2881

0.2910

0.2939

0.2967

0.2995

0.3023

0.3051

0.3078

0.3106

0.3133

0.3159

0.3186

0.3212

0.3238

0.3264

0.3289

0.3315

0.3340

0.3365

0.3389

0.3413

0.3438

0.3461

0.3485

0.3508

0.3531

0.3554

0.3577

0.3599

0.3621

0.3643

0.3665

0.3686

0.3708

0.3729

0.3749

0.3770

0.3790

0.3810

0.3830

0.3849

0.3869

0.3888

0.3907

0.3925

0.3944

0.3962

0.3980

0.3997

0.4015

0.4032

0.4049

0.4066

0.4082

0.4099

0.4115

0.4131

0.4147

0.4162

0.4177

0.4192

0.4207

0.4222

0.4236

0.4251

0.4265

0.4279

0.4292

0.4306

0.4319

0.4332

0.4345

0.4357

0.4370

0.4382

0.4394

0.4406

0.4418

0.4429

0.4441

0.4452

0.4463

0.4474

0.4484

0.4495

0.4505

0.4515

0.4525

0.4535

0.4545

0.4554

0.4564

0.4573

0.4582

0.4591

0.4599

0.4608

0.4616

0.4625

0.4633

0.4641

0.4649

0.4656

0.4664

0.4671

0.4678

0.4686

0.4693

0.4699

0.4706

0.4713

0.4719

0.4726

0.4732

0.4738

0.4744

0.4750

0.4756

0.4761

0.4767

0.4772

0.4778

0.4783

0.4788

0.4793

0.4798

0.4803

0.4808

0.4812

0.4817

0.4821

0.4826

0.4830

0.4834

0.4838

0.4842

0.4846

0.4850

0.4854

0.4857

0.4861

0.4864

0.4868

0.4871

0.4875

0.4878

0.4881

0.4884

0.4887

0.4890

0.4893

0.4896

0.4898

0.4901

0.4904

0.4906

0.4909

0.4911

0.4913

0.4916

0.4918

0.4920

0.4922

0.4925

0.4927

0.4929

0.4931

0.4932

0.4934

0.4936

0.4938

0.4940

0.4941

0.4943

0.4945

0.4946

0.4948

0.4949

0.4951

0.4952

0.4953

0.4955

0.4956

0.4957

0.4959

0.4960

0.4961

0.4962

0.4963

0.4964

0.4965

0.4966

0.4967

0.4968

0.4969

0.4970

0.4971

0.4972

0.4973

0.4974

0.4974

0.4975

0.4976

0.4977

0.4977

0.4978

0.4979

0.4979

0.4980

0.4981

0.4981

0.4982

0.4982

0.4983

0.4984

0.4984

0.4985

0.4985

0.4986

0.4986

0.4987

0.4987

0.4987

0.4988

0.4988

0.4989

0.4989

0.4989

0.4990

0.4990

0.4990

0.4991

0.4991

0.4991

0.4992

0.4992

0.4992

0.4992

0.4993

0.4993

0.4993

0.4993

0.4994

0.4994

0.4994

0.4994

0.4994

0.4995

0.4995

0.4995

0.4995

0.4995

0.4995

0.4996

0.4996

0.4996

0.4996

0.4996

0.4996

0.4997

0.4997

0.4997

0.4997

0.4997

0.4997

0.4997

0.4997

0.4997

0.4997

0.4998

0.4998

0.4998

0.4998

0.4998

0.4998

0.4998

0.4998

0.4998

0.4998

0.4998

0.4998

0.4998

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.4999

0.5000

0.5000

0.5000

0.5000

0.5000

0.5000

0.5000

0.5000

0.5000

0.5000

0.100

0.050

0.025

0.010

0.005

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
40
60
120

3.078

6.314

12.706

31.821

63.657

1.886

2.920

4.303

6.965

9.925

1.638

2.353

3.182

4.541

5.841

1.533

2.132

2.776

3.747

4.604

1.476

2.015

2.571

3.365

4.032

1.440

1.943

2.447

3.143

3.707

1.415

1.895

2.365

2.998

3.499

1.397

1.860

2.306

2.896

3.355

1.383

1.833

2.262

2.821

3.250

1.372

1.812

2.228

2.764

3.169

1.363

1.796

2.201

2.718

3.106

1.356

1.782

2.179

2.681

3.055

1.350

1.771

2.160

2.650

3.012

1.345

1.761

2.145

2.624

2.977

1.341

1.753

2.131

2.602

2.947

1.337

1.746

2.120

2.583

2.921

1.333

1.740

2.110

2.567

2.898

1.330

1.734

2.101

2.552

2.878

1.328

1.729

2.093

2.539

2.861

1.325

1.725

2.086

2.528

2.845

1.323

1.721

2.080

2.518

2.831

1.321

1.717

2.074

2.508

2.819

1.319

1.714

2.069

2.500

2.807

1.318

1.711

2.064

2.492

2.797

1.316

1.708

2.060

2.485

2.787

1.315

1.706

2.056

2.479

2.779

1.314

1.703

2.052

2.473

2.771

1.313

1.701

2.048

2.467

2.763

1.311

1.699

2.045

2.462

2.756

1.310

1.697

2.042

2.457

2.750

1.303

1.684

2.021

2.423

2.704

1.296

1.671

2.000

2.390

2.660

1.289

1.658

1.980

2.358

2.617

1.282

1.645

1.960

2.326

2.576

12

Chi2

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100

0.995

0.99

0.975

0.95

0.9

0.1

0.05

0.025

0.01

0.005

3.93E-05

0.0002

0.0010

0.0039

0.0158

2.7055

3.8415

5.0239

6.6349

7.8794

0.0100

0.0201

0.0506

0.1026

0.2107

4.6052

5.9915

7.3778

9.2103

10.5966

0.0717

0.1148

0.2158

0.3518

0.5844

6.2514

7.8147

9.3484

11.3449

12.8382

0.2070

0.2971

0.4844

0.7107

1.0636

7.7794

9.4877

11.1433

13.2767

14.8603

0.4117

0.5543

0.8312

1.1455

1.6103

9.2364

11.0705

12.8325

15.0863

16.7496

0.6757

0.8721

1.2373

1.6354

2.2041

10.6446

12.5916

14.4494

16.8119

18.5476

0.9893

1.2390

1.6899

2.1673

2.8331

12.0170

14.0671

16.0128

18.4753

20.2777

1.3444

1.6465

2.1797

2.7326

3.4895

13.3616

15.5073

17.5345

20.0902

21.9550

1.7349

2.0879

2.7004

3.3251

4.1682

14.6837

16.9190

19.0228

21.6660

23.5894

2.1559

2.5582

3.2470

3.9403

4.8652

15.9872

18.3070

20.4832

23.2093

25.1882

2.6032

3.0535

3.8157

4.5748

5.5778

17.2750

19.6751

21.9200

24.7250

26.7568

3.0738

3.5706

4.4038

5.2260

6.3038

18.5493

21.0261

23.3367

26.2170

28.2995

3.5650

4.1069

5.0088

5.8919

7.0415

19.8119

22.3620

24.7356

27.6882

29.8195

4.0747

4.6604

5.6287

6.5706

7.7895

21.0641

23.6848

26.1189

29.1412

31.3193

4.6009

5.2293

6.2621

7.2609

8.5468

22.3071

24.9958

27.4884

30.5779

32.8013

5.1422

5.8122

6.9077

7.9616

9.3122

23.5418

26.2962

28.8454

31.9999

34.2672

5.6972

6.4078

7.5642

8.6718

10.0852

24.7690

27.5871

30.1910

33.4087

35.7185

6.2648

7.0149

8.2307

9.3905

10.8649

25.9894

28.8693

31.5264

34.8053

37.1565

6.8440

7.6327

8.9065

10.1170

11.6509

27.2036

30.1435

32.8523

36.1909

38.5823

7.4338

8.2604

9.5908

10.8508

12.4426

28.4120

31.4104

34.1696

37.5662

39.9968

8.0337

8.8972

10.2829

11.5913

13.2396

29.6151

32.6706

35.4789

38.9322

41.4011

8.6427

9.5425

10.9823

12.3380

14.0415

30.8133

33.9244

36.7807

40.2894

42.7957

9.2604

10.1957

11.6886

13.0905

14.8480

32.0069

35.1725

38.0756

41.6384

44.1813

9.8862

10.8564

12.4012

13.8484

15.6587

33.1962

36.4150

39.3641

42.9798

45.5585

10.5197

11.5240

13.1197

14.6114

16.4734

34.3816

37.6525

40.6465

44.3141

46.9279

11.1602

12.1981

13.8439

15.3792

17.2919

35.5632

38.8851

41.9232

45.6417

48.2899

11.8076

12.8785

14.5734

16.1514

18.1139

36.7412

40.1133

43.1945

46.9629

49.6449

12.4613

13.5647

15.3079

16.9279

18.9392

37.9159

41.3371

44.4608

48.2782

50.9934

13.1211

14.2565

16.0471

17.7084

19.7677

39.0875

42.5570

45.7223

49.5879

52.3356

13.7867

14.9535

16.7908

18.4927

20.5992

40.2560

43.7730

46.9792

50.8922

53.6720

20.7065

22.1643

24.4330

26.5093

29.0505

51.8051

55.7585

59.3417

63.6907

66.7660

27.9907

29.7067

32.3574

34.7643

37.6886

63.1671

67.5048

71.4202

76.1539

79.4900

35.5345

37.4849

40.4817

43.1880

46.4589

74.3970

79.0819

83.2977

88.3794

91.9517

43.2752

45.4417

48.7576

51.7393

55.3289

85.5270

90.5312

95.0232

100.4252

104.2149

51.1719

53.5401

57.1532

60.3915

64.2778

96.5782

101.8795

106.6286

112.3288

116.3211

59.1963

61.7541

65.6466

69.1260

73.2911

107.5650

113.1453

118.1359

124.1163

128.2989

67.3276

70.0649

74.2219

77.9295

82.3581

118.4980

124.3421

129.5612

135.8067

140.1695

13