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Naik P. Nills
CE0, Bigital Powei uioup
666789:;<=>?@A87:BC


Sponsoieu by:
National Nining Association
Ameiican Coalition foi Clean Coal Electiicity




August 2u1S


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Naik P. Nills
CE0, Bigital Powei uioup
666789:;<=>?@A87:BC

Sponsoieu by:
National Nining Association
Ameiican Coalition foi Clean Coal Electiicity


August 2u1S


Contents
EXEC0TIvE S0NNARY

TBE STATE ANB F0T0RE 0F TBE INF0RNATI0N EC0SYSTEN
1. PREFACE - WE'vE ENTEREB A NEW ELECTRICITY-CENTRIC BIuITAL ERA
2. TBE uL0BAL C0NTEXT - ENERuY BENANB uR0WS, B0T ELECTRICITY uR0WS FASTER
S. TBE 0.S. C0NTEXT - BENANB F0R ELECTRICITY uR0WS
4. TBE RISE 0F TBE INF0RNATI0N EC0N0NY - BIu ANB uETTINu BIuuER, FAST
S. TBE INF0RNATI0N EC0N0NY - B0W N0CB ELECTRICITY B0ES IT 0SE & WBERE IS IT 0SEB.

ELECTRIC BENANB IN TBE INF0RNATI0N-C0NN0NICATI0NS TECBN0L0uIES (ICT) EC0SYSTEN
6. BATA CENTERS
7. C0NN0NICATI0NS NETW0RKS
8. ENB-0SE BEvICES
9. NAN0FACT0RINu
1u. P0TTINu IT ALL T0uETBER
11. WBERE B0ES & WBERE WILL TBE P0WER C0NE FR0N.

12. APPENBICES
APPENBIX A -- B0ES 0SINu TBE CL00B SAvE ENERuY.
APPENBIX B -- TBE INPACT 0F EFFICIENCY 0N (ICT) ELECTRICITY BENANB

REFERENCES & N0TES


This iepoit pioviues an inuepenuent assessment of the technical liteiatuie anu the natuie of existing estimates anu suiveys of
electiic uemanu in the global anu 0.S. ICT ecosystems. This analysis was suppoiteu in pait by the National Nining Association
anu Ameiican Coalition foi Clean Coal Electiicity. BPu is iesponsible foi the contents of this iepoit anu the analyses containeu
heiein. The analysis anu the giaphics uevelopeu uuiing the couise of this ieseaich iepiesent the inuepenuent woik anu views of
BPu anu aie intenueu to contiibute to the uialogue on the piesent anu futuie eneigy iequiiements of the ICT ecosystem.

Covei image cieuit: Shutteistock
Repoit giaphics uiawn by Bankesh Thakui
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$1$%(",2$ .(33045

The infoimation economy is a blue-whale economy with its eneigy uses mostly out of sight. Baseu on a
miu-iange estimate, the woilu's Infoimation-Communications-Technologies (ICT) ecosystem uses
about 1,Suu TWh of electiicity annually, equal to all the electiic geneiation of }apan anu ueimany
combineu -- as much electiicity as was useu foi global illumination in 198S. The ICT ecosystem now
appioaches 1u% of woilu electiicity geneiation. 0i in othei eneigy teims - the zettabyte eia alieauy
uses about Su% moie eneigy than global aviation.

Reuuceu to peisonal teims, although chaiging up a single tablet oi smait phone iequiies a negligible
amount of electiicity, using eithei to watch an houi of viueo weekly consumes annually moie
electiicity in the iemote netwoiks than two new iefiigeiatois use in a yeai.
1
Anu as the woilu
continues to electiify, migiating towaius one iefiigeiatoi pei ;B>D9;BE@, it also evolves towaius seveial
smaitphones anu equivalent pei =9FDB?.

The giowth in ICT eneigy uemanu will continue to be moueiateu by efficiency gains. But the histoiic
iate of impiovement in the efficiency of unueilying ICT technologies staiteu slowing aiounu 2uuS,
followeu almost immeuiately by a new eia of iapiu giowth in global uata tiaffic, anu in paiticulai the
emeigence of wiieless bioaubanu foi smaitphones anu tablets. The inheient natuie of the mobile
Inteinet, a key featuie of the emeigent Clouu aichitectuie, iequiies fai moie eneigy than uo wiieu
netwoiks. The iemaikable anu iecent changes in technology mean that cuiient estimates of global ICT
eneigy use, most of which use pie-iPhone eia uata, unueistate ieality. Tienus now piomise fastei, not
slowei, giowth in ICT eneigy use.

Futuie giowth in electiicity to powei the global ICT ecosystem is anchoieu in just two vaiiables,
uemanu (how fast tiaffic giows), anu supply (how fast technology efficiency impioves):
! As costs keep plummeting, how fast uo anothei billion people buy smaitphones anu join
wiieless bioaubanu netwoiks wheie they will use 1,uuu times moie uata pei peison than
they uo touay; how fast uo anothei billion, oi moie, join the Inteinet at all; how fast uo a
tiillion machines anu uevices join the Inteinet to fuel the infoimation appetite of Big Bata.
! Can engineeis invent, anu companies ueploy, moie efficient ICT haiuwaie fastei than uata
tiaffic giows.

To 9D8ACG89 the amount of electiicity useu to fuel eveiything that piouuces, stoies, tianspoits,
piocesses anu uisplays zettabytes of uata, one must account foi the eneigy useu by:
! Bata centeis that have become waiehouse-scale supeicomputeis unlike anything in histoiy;
! 0biquitous bioaubanu wiieu anu wiieless communications netwoiks;
! The myiiau of enu-use uevices fiom PCs to tablets anu smait phones to uigital Tv, anu,
! The manufactuiing facilities piouucing all the ICT haiuwaie.

,B>FEH Inteinet tiaffic will soon exceeu the G??>GE tiaffic of the yeai 2uuu. Anu uemanu foi uata anu
banuwiuth anu the associateu infiastiuctuie aie giowing iapiuly not just to enable new consumei
piouucts anu viueo, but also to uiive ievolutions in eveiything fiom healthcaie to cais, anu fiom
factoiies to faims. Bistoiically, uemanu foi bits has giown fastei than the eneigy efficiency of using
them. In oiuei foi woiluwiue ICT electiic uemanu to meiely uouble in a uecaue, unpieceuenteu
impiovements in efficiency will be neeueu now.

Electiicity fuels the infiastiuctuie of the woilu's ICT ecosystem -- the Inteinet, Big Bata anu the Clouu.
Coal is the woilu's laigest single cuiient anu futuie souice of electiicity. Bence the title of this papei.
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Where Electricity Is Consumed in the Digital Universe







Global Electricity Demand: The Cloud, Illumination, and EVs

The global ICT ecosystem uses as much electricity as global lighting did circa 1985, and in two decades will likely use triple
the energy of all EVs in the world by then, assuming an optimistic 200 million EV forecast.

[Cloud is used here to refer to the entire global ICT ecosystem, and not to a more narrow definition of Cloud business services.]
[Red triangles indicate global ICT estimates from Greenpeace. Coal use is based on current global 40% share of electricity generation.]
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Shoitly, 456789 Inteinet tiaffic will exceeu the Inteinet's :;;6:8 tiaffic of the yeai 2uuu. Anu uata
cieateu, useu anu tianspoiteu annually - the "uigital univeise" - is now giowing at a fastei pace than at
any time in histoiy. The woilu is in what Cisco has coineu, the zettabyte eia.
2
(The unit zetta is a teia
times one billion; a zetta-stack of uollai bills woulu ieach the sun anu back -- one million times.)


Size of the Digital Universe Annual Data Created & Consumed

Data Source: IDC Digital Universe 2013

The digital universe is made up of images and videos on mobile phones uploaded to YouTube, digital movies populating the pixels of our
high-definition TVs, banking data swiped in an ATM, security footage at airports and major events such as the Olympic Games, subatomic
collisions recorded by the Large Hadron Collider at CERN, transponders recording highway tolls!


All of this uigital tiaffic iequiies a huge uistiibuteu physical infiastiuctuie of equipment that
specifically anu almost exclusively consumes electiicity. Since coal is the woilu's laigest anu fastest
giowing souice of electiicity - 68% of auuitional supply ovei the past uecaue anu foiecast to supply at
least Su% foi the next uecaue
S
-- the ieality is that =>? @ABA=CD EFAG?HI? CF@ %DJE@ K?BAFI LA=> MJCD.


Annual Global Electricity Generated

Data Source: IEA
Coal is 40% of global electricity and is forecast, by the IEA, to supply 50% of the growth in world demand over the next 20 years.

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ulobal investment in the infiastiuctuie of the uigital economy is alieauy ovei $S tiillion, anu will giow
anothei $S tiillion within a uecaue. ulobal Big Bata capital spenuing is now in the same league as Big
0il.
4
But while Big 0il piouuces eneigy, Big Bata consumes eneigy, specifically electiicity.


Infrastructure Investment in the Digital Universe

Data Source: IDC Digital Universe 2013

Even as the cost (measured in $ per gigabyte) of IT equipment keeps falling, annual IT enterprise investment keeps climbing.


Infoimation-Communications-Technologies (ICT) -- the Inteinet, Big Bata anu the Clouu -- use
electiicity acioss eveiy niche of the uigital ecosystem, fiom hanuhelu uevices anu IT embeuueu in
machines, to uata centeis, netwoiks anu factoiies. Since all uigital bits aie elections -- oi optical anu
RF photons which aie quantum cousins to elections -- astionomical quantities of uata eventually auu
up to ieal powei in the ieal woilu. This ieality has been noteu by uieenpeace, foi example, which has
iankeu the coal uepenuence of majoi clouu uata centei companies.


Dependence on Coal for Data Centers



Source: Greenpeace International, How Clean is Your Cloud, April 2012


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Now, the scale anu the chaiactei of the ICT ecosystem aie changing. Not only will theie be moie anu
biggei uata centeis coming, but the evolution of computing towaius mobile platfoims, smait phones
anu tablets cieating the "Nobile Inteinet" is iauically alteiing wheie anu how uata aie piouuceu anu
useu, collateially changing the natuie anu scale of the netwoik infiastiuctuie.


Global Installed Based of Computing - - The Rise of the Mobile Internet

Data Source: Internet Trends, Mary Meeker, Kleiner Perkins, 2012 & 2013
PCs (including notebooks) vs. smart mobile (tablets + smartphones)


The Nobile Inteinet, the Clouu anu Big Bata ievolutions cieate economic oppoitunity anu geneiate
enoimous efficiencies. But just how big is the global ICT ecosystem now, anu how big will it become.
Bow much electiicity is consumeu, anu will be consumeu in the futuie, by the entiie ICT ecosystem.

The new anu emeiging uigital uevices anu seivices foi consumei anu businesses have cieateu
oppoitunities unimagineu in scale oi chaiactei by any visionaiy uuiing the heyuay of "iiiational
exubeiance" of the 199us when the Inteinet began. Soon moie uata will be associateu with non-PC
uevices than PCs - even as PC-centiic tiaffic itself uoubles.


Where Global Data Traffic Originates


Data Source: Cisco, The Zettabyte Era
At 80 exabytes monthly, the world enters the zettabyte per year era.

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Eneigy foiecasting has enteieu a new eia uiiven by iauical changes on both the uemanu anu supply
siues of the equation. Population anu economic giowth aie the uiiving foices in the woilu's neeu foi
eneigy in geneial anu electiicity in paiticulai. Even with substantial gains in efficiency, oveiall global
eneigy use will iise by an amount equivalent to auuing two 0niteu States' woith uemanu by 2uSu.


World Energy Use and GDP


Data Source
5
: DOE/EIA; IEA, BP, Exxon. (constant $2010)


Neanwhile, the electiification of eveiything continues. The woilu is on tiack by 2uSS to cioss a
thiesholu the 0.S. ciosseu in 199S, wheiein eneigy useu foi electiicity exceeus that useu foi eveiything
else - eveiything, that is, excluuing tianspoitation, which will iemain laigely non-electiifieu foi
uecaues, even in the most optimistic scenaiios. Bow much of the giowth in electiicity comes fiom
infoimation technologies anu the Clouu.


Global Electric v. Non-Electric Energy Consumption
(Excluding energy used in transportation)


Data Source: Exxon

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0.S. electiic uemanu giew Su% ovei the past two uecaues anu is foiecast by the EIA to giow anothei
1S% ovei the coming two.
6
Neanwhile, non-electiic non-tianspoitation eneigy use staiteu ueclining in
199S - maiking a tuining point in the continueu electiification of the economy. That point in histoiy is
contempoianeous with the emeigence anu giowth of the ubiquitous Inteinet.


U.S. Electric v. Non-Electric Energy Consumption
(Excluding energy used in transportation)

Data Source: DOE/EIA
A 15% growth by 2030 on top of Americas enormous electric system requires additional generation equal to the power system of Germany.
Transportation remains largely un-electrified; electric vehicle (EV) penetration remains under 0.1% even by 2035 in EIA forecasts.)


About 8u% of electiicity is useu by thiee classes of equipment: illumination, cooling anu heating, anu
electiic motois. Remaikable efficiency gains in these legacy uses have taken place ovei the past two
uecaues, a peiiou long enough to see significant tuinovei to new moie efficient equipment theieby
moueiating uemanu giowth as the economy expanueu.
7



Average Efficiency of Five Major Appliances

Data Source: The Impact of Consumer Electronics on Home Electricity Use, NRDC

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0ff-setting the gains in aveiage efficiency of conventional equipment aie the macio-economic featuies
that uiive moie uemanu. 0vei the past two uecaues: population anu commeicial builuing space both
giew 2S%, total iesiuential space giew Su%, anu uBP anu inuustiial output giew 6u% anu Su%
iespectively. Futuie uemanu giowth will uepenu on how fast moie efficient conventional equipment is
installeu, anu whethei theie aie new uses foi electiicity.


Average Power Density to Illuminate Commercial Office Space
(Average power per square foot of building space)

Data Source: Energy Efficiency Trends in Residential and Commercial Buildings, USDOE


A key featuie uiiving the iecent anu futuie giowth in electiic uemanu is laigely buiieu in the statistics -
- the iise of ICT haiuwaie eveiywheie fiom the wiieless netwoiks, to the gaigantuan uata centeis, to
the piolifeiation of uevices in homes anu offices, anu the factoiies wheie miciopiocessois aie maue.

Compaie the powei uensity tienus foi illumination (above) with ICT equipment (below), the lattei now
common in commeicial builuings anu the only 'occupant' that fills thousanus of waiehouse-scale uata
centeis. The aveiage squaie foot of a uata centei uses 1uu to 2uu times moie electiicity than uoes a
squaie foot of a mouein office builuing. Put anothei way, a tiny few thousanu squaie foot uata ioom
uses moie electiicity than lighting up a one hunuieu thousanu squaie foot shopping mall.


Power Density of Equipment to Process and Communicate Data
(Power density of typical datacenter equipment)

Data Source: ASHRAE Datacom Equipment Power Trends


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0vei $1 tiillion of the 0.S. economy is associateu with the ecosystem of infoimation anu uata -- CBIA?J
KA8D - eveiything fiom the manufactuiing of ICT equipment, to seivices piouucts anu infiastiuctuie.
This is moie than twice the shaie of the uBP associateu with 8FG?D=BF8A?J =9B=E9 G?@ D8>LL - similaily
counting eveiything fiom vehicle manufactuiing to FeuEx anu all foims of tianspoitation seivices.


U.S. Share of GDP: Moving Information v. Moving People & Things


Data Source: U.S. Census Table 670


The infoimation sectoi is now the fastest giowing pait of the economy. In the last uecaue, the
tianspoitation shaie giew 1S% while the infoimation economy giew 4S%.


U.S. Share of GDP: Moving Information v. Moving People & Things

Data Source: U.S. Census Table 670

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Befoie exploiing infoimation's eneigy appetite, consiuei the coie uiiving foice foi ICT giowth:
Computing anu the netwoiks to connect people anu things to computing have become stunningly
cheap. Consequently, computing is incieasingly showing up eveiywheie, not just in phones anu tablets
but embeuueu in toys, tools anu meuicine.


Cost of Information Technology -- Normalized to an iPad

Source: A Dozen Economic Facts About Innovation, Hamilton Project
It would have cost $10,000 in 2000, $100 million in 1980, and $10 billion in 1960 to buy an iPads computing capability


Infoimation technology has ueclineu in ieal costs in a way that is unpieceuenteu in the histoiy of any
piouuct oi seivice. 0nly lighting technology has hau a similai kinu of exponential uecline in costs. But
even theie, in Su yeais computing costs have uioppeu a 1uu million folu moie than illumination
technology cost ueclineu in ovei 2uu yeais. }ust as the collapse in the cost of illumination ovei histoiy
has leau to the now ubiquitous use of lumens, so too is the even gieatei uecline in computing costs
piopelling an even bioauei uiffusion of uata.


Cost of Illumination Technology Normalized to an LED Bulb

Data Source: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association Technology Roadmap
It would have cost $5,000 in 1900 and $50,000 in 1800 to buy as much illumination as one $10 semiconductor LED bulb can deliver today.

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People can use only so many lumens pei squaie foot, eat so much, oi spenu so much time in a cai,
setting limits on total lighting, foou anu fuel consumption. But the appetite foi bits shows no bounus.
Even piospeiity foi emeiging economies is no longei measuieu just by the penetiation of electiicity
anu light bulbs (though that is still vital), but by bits-pei-capita. This is a iauical shift fiom the 198us
when economists puzzleu ovei ICT's 'hiuuen' piouuctivity gains. Nobel economist Robeit Solow
famously askeu in 1987: M/B> :G? D99 8;9 :BC=>89F GJ9 9I9FH6;9F9 K>8 A? 8;9 =FB@>:8AIA8H D8G8AD8A:D7"
8



Global Wealth Correlates With ICT Penetration

Source: Telecommunications Union ICT Development Index
ICT penetration is measured as a composite of 11 deployment and availability indicators.


These bioau ICT tienus - ueclining costs, iising global uemanus -- aie now being amplifieu by the
emeiging tiansfoimation of the Inteinet into what is being populaily if loosely teimeu the Clouu, anu
the Nobile Inteinet. The scale of this next tiansfoimation is moie significant than that fiom
mainfiames to PCs anu the wiieu Inteinet. In 2u1S, the woilu will spenu $S.8 tiillion on ICT, on
eveiything fiom seiveis anu netwoik geai, to softwaie anu telecom seivices.
9
Bow much electiicity is
associateu with that much haiuwaie anu economic activity.


The Transformation of the Information Economy Continues


Source: Morgan Stanley

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Nanufactuieis now piouuce each yeai "fai moie tiansistois than the woilu's faimeis giow JFGA?D of
wheat oi iice."
1u
Bow much electiicity is useu by all those tiansistois.

The iuea that ICT uevices coulu be counteu in teims of theii aggiegate contiibution to electiicity
consumption uiu not come into geneial uiscussion until 1999, when we publisheu +;9 (?89F?98 39JA?D
6A8; .BGEN ! OF9EACA?GFH &P=EBFG8AB? BL 8;9 (C=G:8 BL 8;9 (?89F?98 B? &E9:8FA:A8H .B?D>C=8AB?.
11


Bata centeis aie the laigest anu most easily iuentifieu featuie of the infiastiuctuie of the Inteinet anu
the Clouu, but compiise just one pait of the ICT ecosystem. Still, theie aie tens of thousanus of these
massive waiehouse-scale builuings, each consuming as much electiicity as an entiie town. Nany
communities solicit uata centeis foi tech jobs, anu electiic anu tax ievenues, while enviionmental
gioups taiget them to challenge tech companies' gieen bona fiues.


Where Electricity Is Consumed in the Digital Universe



Source: Digital Power Group


Boes ieauing an e-book, oi watching a stieaming viueo, use moie eneigy than ieauing it on papei, oi
buying a BvB - counting eveiything fiom mine-mouth anu foiest to consumei. Boes playing a viueo
game use moie eneigy than playing Nonopoly. Boes a uoctoi using an iPau foi uiagnostic auvice fiom
aitificial intelligence in the Clouu use moie eneigy than, what. Tiaveling foi a seconu opinion. The
answei involves moie than knowing how much electiicity one iPau, PC oi smaitphone uses. It iequiies
accounting foi all the electiicity useu in the entiie ICT ecosystem neeueu to make any of that possible.

Nany analyses of ICT eneigy use aie coloieu by motivations that can eithei naiiow oi uistoit the
analytic fiamewoik. 0ne majoi stuuy staits with:
o M);H AD (.+ DB :FA8A:GEQ (8 =FBIA@9D A?89EEAJ9?:9 8B CG?GJ9R 9I9? E9DD9? 8;9 AC=G:8 BL 8;9 CBD8 ACCA?9?8
8;F9G8 8B B>F 9PAD89?:9N :EACG89 :;G?J97S
TU

But none of the factois that gave iise to touay's uigital economy weie anchoieu in, oi weie motivateu
by eithei saving eneigy oi caibon.
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15
The eneigy chaiacteiistics of the ICT ecosystem aie quite unlike anything else built to uate. Tuining on
a light uoes ?B8 iequiie uozens of lights to tuin on elsewheie. Bowevei, tuin on an iPau to watch a
viueo anu iPau-like uevices all ovei the countiy, even all ovei the woilu, simultaneously light up
thioughout a vast netwoik. Nothing else in society opeiates that way. Staiting a cai uoesn't cause
uozens of cais elsewheie to fiie up.


The Cloud is a Global Network of Interconnected Always-On Electricity-Consuming Devices




Amongst the extensive technical liteiatuie on vaiious specific aspects of ICT eneigy use, two iecent
stuuies stanu foi theii attempt at a compiehensive oveiview, one by the Boston Consulting uioup
1S
anu
anothei by uieenpeace, wheie the lattei oiganization noteu that: "Bata centeis aie the factoiies of the
21st centuiy infoimation age . many of which can be seen fiom space, consume a tiemenuous amount
of electiicity." !?@ "If the Clouu weie a countiy, it woulu have the fifth laigest electiicity uemanu in
the woilu."
14



Global Cloud Electric Consumption

Source: Greenpeace International, How Clean is Your Cloud, April 2012
Note: Cloud consumption here includes telecommunications infrastructure, but not the entire ICT ecosystem.


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16
Theie aie foui main eneigy-consuming featuies of the ICT ecosystem:
Public anu piivate uata centeis which stoie, ioute anu piocess infoimation;
Wiieu anu wiieless piivate anu public netwoiks, incluuing cellulai, WiFi anu fibei;
Enu-usei equipment in homes, offices, factoiies anu faims;
Factoiies that manufactuie all the ICT equipment.


Where Electricity is Used in the ICT Ecosystem



Data Source: Directions Towards Future Green Internet, 12th Int. Symposium on Wireless Personal Multimedia Communications


A numbei of analysts have estimateu that cuiient electiicity consumption in the global ICT ecosystem
ianges fiom 1,1uu to 1,8uu TWh annually.
1S
,
16
,
17
This puts global electiicity useu by ICT touay in the
same league as global lighting eneigy uemanu ciica 198S. Thus lighting up silicon anu laseis has
moveu into the big leagues as an electiicity-consuming sectoi. Bowevei, as we will exploie heiein,
these estimates aie eithei incomplete, use olu uata, oi use uebatable assumptions.



Electricity for Global ICT v. Illumination The Current Wisdom

Data Source: current ICT/Cloud data per citations above; lighting data from IEA

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17
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The tens of thousanus of uata centeis aiounu the woilu compiise a high-piofile featuie of the ICT
aichitectuie, fiom Iowa anu South Caiolina
18
, to Texas
19
anu Califoinia, anu fiom Iielanu to Icelanu,
anu fiom China to Inuia. A Suu,uuu sq.ft. 4u megawatt (NW) Facebook uata centei openeu in 2u12 in
Noith Caiolina wheie electiic iates aie 1u-Su% below the 0.S. national aveiage (the local giiu is S6%
coal, S2% nucleai). Theie, the Facebook facility will save $1uu million in opeiating costs compaieu to
national aveiage iates,
2u
anu use one million tons of coal ovei the next uecaue.
21



The Size & Power Of Leading-Edge Data Centers Keeps Rising

Source: Sun Microsystems


0ne of the woilu's biggest commeicial uata centeis, in Nevaua, at 4uu,uuu squaie feet now (seven
football fielus) is slateu to expanu to two million sq. ft.
22
Neanwhile, the owneis of a $1.6 billion, 2uu
NW one million-squaie-foot uata centei unuei constiuction in Chongqing, China, auveitises theie
cheap powei (fiom China's 8u peicent coal-fiieu electiic giiu), not cheap laboi, as theii competitive
auvantage in puisuing global Clouu seivices.
2S


ulobally, uata centeis aie estimateu to consume (as of 2u1u) fiom 2Su to SSu TWh annually.
24
,
2S
,
26



Where Data Centers Use Energy


Data Source: The Datacenter as a Computer: An Introduction to the Design of Warehouse-Scale Machines, Google.
Allocations vary with age, purpose, location. Cooling incl. chillers, fans, pumps; electrical incl. UPS, batteries, distribution & switch-gear.

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18
Even as the efficiency of computing equipment impioves, anu iauical gains have been achieveu in
oveiall uata centei opeiational efficiency in iecent yeais, total global powei neeus to light up the
woilu's uata centeis keeps iising, neaily uoubling in the past five yeais.


Global Data Centers -- Aggregated Power Trend


Data Source: Powering the Datacenter, DatacenterDynamics, 2013
One-third of global data center energy use is in U.S., but growth rates are fastest in emerging economies.


As the next Clouu-uominateu eia expanus, many existing uata centeis will be gutteu anu iebuilt, oi
entiiely ieplaceu with new state-of-the-ait ICT equipment fai moie peifoimance pei watt anu pei
uollai, but also fai moie powei pei squaie foot of space occupieu by the haiuwaie. The aveiage uata
centei in the 0.S., foi example, is now well past 12 yeais olu - geiiatiic class tech by ICT stanuaius.
0nlike othei inuustiial-classes of electiic uemanu, newei uata facilities see highei, not lowei, powei
uensities. A single iefiigeiatoi-sizeu iack of seiveis in a uata centei alieauy iequiies moie powei than
an entiie home, with the GI9FGJ9 powei pei iack
27
iising 4u% in the past five yeais to ovei S kW, anu
the latest state-of-the-ait systems hitting 26kW pei iack on tiack to uoubling.
28



Global Data Center Power Trends
Power of compute equipment by year of product introduction.

Data Source: Datacom Equipment Power Trends and Cooling Applications, ASHRE 2012
Note: ASHRE measures power as heat load.

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19
Piogiess in uata centei equipment efficiency will continue
29
, but foiecasts still show substantial giowth
in uata centei eneigy, anu in some estimates compiise the fastest giowing pait of the ICT eneigy-using
ecosystem in the next uecaue.
Su
(0theis see netwoik eneigy uemanus giowing fastei; exploieu next.)


Electricity to Power the Clouds Data Centers

Source: Microsoft Global Foundation Services


If the above foiecast is ioughly accuiate, then the woilu's uata centeis alone will appioach 1,uuu TWh
within a uecaue - moie than the total now useu foi all puiposes by }apan anu ueimany combineu. Foi
many uata centeis touay, the cost of buying computei seiveis is now less than the cumulative cost of
buying electiicity to iun those seiveis ovei theii foui-yeai life. As computing haiuwaie costs continue
a long-teim uecline, the shaie of spenuing anu impoitance of eneigy costs incieases.


Servers in Global Data Centers


Data Source: IDC
Note the number of servers includes virtual machines achieved by maximizing equipment use through virtualization software. Virtual
machines also consume energy.

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20
Bata centeis have enteieu a new eia in teims of the chaiactei of tiaffic. Nost uata-centei tiaffic until
iecently was associateu with managing uata flowing to-anu-fiom useis. Intia-uata-centei tiaffic is
now giowing fai fastei than tiaffic to-anu-fiom enu-useis uue to the iising use of IT seivices, iemote
stoiage, anu the incieasing use of ieal-time piocessing (enableu by high-speeu usei connectivity) such
as mapping, voice iecognition, inuustiial anu meuical uiagnostics, anu big uata analytics.


The New Character of Global Data Center Traffic

Data Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index
For global data center energy use to remain unchanged, efficiency of all future and existing data centers needs to improve 300% in five years.


Now uata centeis aie incieasingly seeing peak uemanu chaiacteiistics akin to that expeiienceu by
electiic utilities - necessitating similai, costly, "ieseive" capacity. Bata centei peaks necessaiily occui
contempoianeously with expensive utility giiu peaks. 0ne solution is to have uata tiaffic follow cheap
powei when available at othei iemote facilities (iequiiing ieseive uata capacity at those facilities).
Some of the auuitional facility costs may be offset by using softwaie anu haiuwaie to ieplace expensive
back-up powei geai (useu foi local ieliability) to enable insteau a "giaceful" failovei to anothei uata
centei in the event of powei failuie, anu useu foi smoothly tiansfeiiing tiaffic to cheapei powei
locations when calleu foi.
S1



Utility-Class Peak Demand Challenge Comes to Data Centers


Data Source: Cisco Video Networking Index

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21
The univeise of uata centeis is iapiuly expanuing anu constiuction outsiue of the 0.S. is giowing at
twice the pace of Noith Ameiica. Nany aie locateu wheie powei is cheap anu banuwiuth available,
otheis wheie powei is moie expensive but pioximity to maikets is ciitical. As fast as the speeu of light
is, computing is so fast that uistances to uata centeis of only a few tens of miles aie possible foi "ieal
time" exchanges foi such things as ciitical backups, financial tiansactions, oi incieasingly common
uynamic ieal-time activities such as navigation. Thus when speeu matteis pioximity matteis too, anu
uata centei opeiatois can't follow cheapei powei but aie captive to local powei iates.

The ciiticality of electiicity foi uata centeis is eviuent in the global spenuing on technology anu
softwaie to manage uata-centei powei, a $1S billion annual inuustiy now, foiecast to tiiple to $4S
billion in five yeais.
S2



Data Centers Across the U.S. & Europe
(Location & Number at Each Location)




Source: Data Center Map
A global site with a map of over 2,500 enterprise class co-location data centers: i.e., excludes ~ 9,000 other enterprise class data centers such
as Apple, Google, and other private enterprises, governments and research, and excludes thousands of communications data centers.


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22
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Netwoiks aie compiiseu of tianspoit haiuwaie in the wiieu (fibei, coax, anu legacy coppei) anu
wiieless uomains (cellulai, WiNax, anu WiFi.) Touay's high-speeu wiieless netwoiks enable
smaitphones anu tablets to uisplay stieaming viueo anytime anu anywheie.


Where Networks Use Electricity


Data Source: A Review of Energy Efficiency in Telecommunication Networks, Koutitas, et al, Telfor Journal.


Estimates of global netwoik electiicity use iange fiom 2Su to 4uu TWh.
SS
,
S4
,
SS
,
S6
But the tiaffic in the
communications woilu has changeu uiamatically in the few yeais since all these estimates weie maue.

Cuiient publisheu estimates of the eneigy useu by netwoiks aie baseu on uata typically pieuating
2u1u, anu much of that is anchoieu in measuiements anu analyses peifoimeu eailiei, wheiein a
common iefeience in many iepoits is a 2uu7 Eiicsson analysis. The iPhone was intiouuceu in 2uu7
anu netwoiks have expeiienceu unpieceuenteu incieases in tiaffic since the intiouuction of
smaitphones anu tablets. 0.S. mobile tiaffic, foi example, iose 4uu% since 2u1u.
S7



How Wireless Networks Use Electricity


Data Source: Cellular Networks with Embodied Energy, IEEE Network
Data transmission is inherently more energy efficient on wires and fiber than radio, where the RF amplifier is the biggest energy-user.


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23
At the enu of 2u12 theie weie S.2 billion cellulai subsciibeis, of which 1.2 billion weie bioaubanu
subsciibeis - the lattei is twice as many as the total lanu-line bioaubanu subsciiptions.
S8
Not only aie
theie a lot moie people on wiieless netwoiks, but the tiaffic on those netwoiks has giown fastei.
Consequently, total mobile tiaffic is up some 4uu-folu since 2uu7, anu that giowth came almost
entiiely fiom bioaubanu uata not voice use.


Growth in Global Mobile Traffic

Data Source: Ericsson Mobility Report: June 2013
Data is based on global field measurements of traffic on over 1,000 mobile networks (excludes M2M, WiFi)


Coulu impiovements in cellulai netwoik eneigy efficiency ovei the past half-uozen yeais have offset a
4uu-folu iise in tiaffic. Nothing in the liteiatuie suggests anything close to such gains7
Z]


0ne majoi cellulai netwoik opeiatoi iecently publisheu uata on the impact of these tiaffic tienus.
China Nobile claims a Su% impiovement in theii system eneigy efficiency ovei the past half-uozen
yeais, but oveiall electiicity use giew fai moie iapiuly than the iise in the numbei of subsciibeis anu
base stations - a phenomenon that began contempoianeous with bioaubanu wiieless.


China Mobiles Energy Consumption & Wireless Base Station Growth


Data Source: China Mobile Research Institute

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24
China Nobile's expeiience suggests that cuiient estimates of global netwoik eneigy use aie low.
Extiapolating China Nobile's expeiience, wheie pie-bioaubanu tienus woulu have yielueu a 6 TWh
system by 2u11 iathei than the 12 TWh iealizeu, touay's global netwoik eneigy numbei is also likely
fai gieatei than the pievailing estimates of 2Su - 4uu TWh - peihaps it is moie like Suu - 8uu TWh.
Even assuming lowei bioaubanu penetiation anu gieatei efficiency gains than in China, the uppei
bounu estimate foi global netwoik eneigy use is likely closei to 6uu TWh.

Even moie giiu uemanu will emeige in uue couise as many uiesel-poweieu cell toweis conveit to giiu
powei. 0f the woilu's foui million base stations, one million weie auueu since 2uu7 of which one-thiiu
aie cuiiently off-giiu using uiesel geneiatois.
4u
With uiesel-electiic powei as much as 1u times moie
costly than foi giiu-connecteu toweis, wiieless opeiatois will conveit as fast as feasible.


Growth in Mobile Base Stations in Emerging Nations

Data Source: Green Cellular Networks: A Survey, Some Research Issues and Challenges, IEEE


The migiation to mobile bioaubanu is uiiven by the auvent of high-speeu wiieless uata; up 1uu-folu in
a uecaue anu iising anothei 1u-folu ovei the next five yeais.
41
Caiiieis aie finuing that smaitphone
anu tablet useis consume suipiising amounts of uata when fast bioaubanu netwoiks aie offeieu.
42



The Growth in Maximum Wireless Data Rates


Data Source: IEEE Solid-State Circuits Magazine


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25
The new high-speeu LTE netwoiks that acceleiate the mobile Inteinet iequiie up to thiee times moie
uata pei houi pei task compaieu to the pievious slowei Su netwoiks, anu thus moie eneigy.
4S
Anu
compaieu to 2u netwoiks, LTE eneigy consumption is 6u times gieatei to offei the same coveiage.
44



The Rising Share of Higher-Speed More Energy-Intensive Wireless Broadband


Data Source: The Mobile Economy 2013, GSMA and ATKearney
The worlds wireless networks are transitioning to high-speed broadband hardware.


Base station powei iequiiements inciease as wiieless bioaubanu speeu incieases.


The Power Cost of Cellular Speed on High-Speed LTE Networks



Data Source: Energy Aware Radio and neTwork tecHnologies
Engineers are proposing implementing sleep mode software to reduce base-station energy use when traffic use is lower.


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26
ulobal Inteinet tiaffic is going mobile. Nigiation to the wiieless Inteinet is happening fastest in
emeiging maikets, but is occuiiing eveiywheie.
4S
The same amount of uata caiiieu on wiieless
netwoiks consumes fai moie eneigy than when tianspoiteu on 'wiies' (fibei optics). Nobile uata
tiaffic uoubleu in the past yeai anu is foiecast to iise 1u-folu in five yeais.
46
(At the same time, wiieu
netwoik tiaffic also giows to tianspoit the uata fiom wiieless noues back to the Clouu's uata centeis).


Share of Internet Traffic on Wireless Networks For the Last Mile

Data Source: Meeker, KPCB



ulobal tiaffic on mobile netwoiks is expanuing at histoiically unpieceuenteu iates, iising fiom touay's
2u to ovei 1Su exabytes a yeai within a half uecaue. While touay's netwoiks eneigy use ianges fiom
1.S to ovei 1S kWhuB of tiaffic,
47
oveiall netwoik eneigy efficiency will neeu to impiove neaily 1u-
folu in five yeais to keep total system eneigy use fiom iising substantially.


Global Mobile Network Traffic


Data Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Industry Survey, 2013

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27

The unueilying aichitectuie of all communications netwoiks have become both uigital anu migiateu
incieasingly onto the Inteinet. Theie has thus been a bluiiing of the line between uata centeis anu
telecommunications facilities foi which theie aie thousanus of the lattei locateu acioss the 0niteu
States anu aiounu the woilu. The cost to powei such facilities is necessaiily uictateu by local iates.


Locations of U.S. Telecommunications Central Offices Communications Data Centers

Source: Marigold Technologies


The "last mile" of the woilu's phone infiastiuctuie is moiphing fiom the centuiy-olu wiieu stanuaiu to
wiieless; common in emeiging nations anu Su% of 0.S. homes have only a wiieless phone. The wiieu
last-mile system useu less eneigy anu was easy to powei since all electiicity came fiom cential offices.
Wiieless eneigy-pei-customei is much gieatei, iequiiing powei in thiee locations, cential office, cell
toweis, anu at the customei, multiplying the eneigy anu the challenge of keeping eveiything lit 24x7.


Locations of U.S. Wireless Cell Towers

Source: Tower Maps


Note: none of the eneigy associateu with the iauio anu Tv bioaucast netwoiks has been incluueu heie
oi elsewheie even though that infiastiuctuie is meiging into the Clouu. ESPN's bioaucast opeiation is
functionally the same as a majoi uata centei oi communications cential office.
48

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28
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Tiacking the eneigy-use of thousanus of types of enu-use uevices in homes, business anu factoiies
iequiies making assumptions iathei than measuiements, in paiticulai about how uevices aie useu anu
how often. Anu assumptions aie maue about whethei anu how much to count the incieasingly
common ICT featuies in olu uumb appliances. Now Tv is the biggest vaiiable in uigital eneigy
accounting as all foims of viueo incieasingly become pait of the uigital ecosystem.


Global Consumer Electricity Uses


Data Source: Overview of World-Wide Energy Consumption of Consumer Electronics and Energy Savings Opportunities, NRDC


Cuiient estimates of global electiicity useu by uigital uevices in the global iesiuential anu commeicial
sectoi ianges fiom 46u to SSu TWh annually.
49
This puts home computing in the same iange as
electiicity useu foi iesiuential lighting, oi iefiigeiation.
Su
But that iange uoesn't account foi all
cuiient ICT enu-uses anu new tienus. Asiue fiom ignoiing the incieasingly common, but ielatively
small loaus fiom ICT embeuueu in olu 'uumb' appliances, the cuiient ICT enu-use estimates have little
oi no accounting foi uigital Tvs.
S1
Also typically omitteu, oi unuei-counteu, is the Tv set-top box which
can alone use as much electiicity annually as a iefiigeiatoi.
S2



Typical Electricity Use Per Residence
(excluding heating/cooling of air and water)

Data Source: EIA & IEA Gadgets and Gigawatts, Policies for Energy Efficient Electronics

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! #$%$&'( )*+,- %-*.)
29
Stuuies focuseu on Tvs anu set-top boxes estimate 0.S. consumption at 9u - 1uu TWh.
SS
,
S4
ulobally, Tvs
aie estimateu to use 4uu - 7uu TWh,
SS
,
S6
,
S7
a total that is compaiable to pievailing estimates foi all enu-
use ICT loaus. Bigital Tv is often (eiioneously) allocateu a minimal shaie of the ICT ecosystem's
eneigy use. Allocating only 2u% of Tvs to the Inteinet woulu auu about 8u to 14u TWh to the pievious
citeu ICT enu-use eneigy, incieasing the maximum estimateu global total to 69u TWh.


Global TV & Set-Top Box Electricity Use as of 2008

Data Source: IEA, Ericsson
Netflix began streaming to TVs in 2008, now serves 25 million U.S. consumers, illustrating the rapid recent changes.
58

[Note: Above illustrates high range from Ericsson]


The migiation of Tv to the Inteinet will uominate ICT enu-use eneigy foi yeais (anu foi netwoiks anu
uata centeis as well). The shaie of Tvs that will be uigital is foiecast to ieach Su% by 2u2u.
S9
Anu
befoie long, anothei viueo giowth cycle begins as the next eia of uisplays emeiges with glasses-fiee
SB, anu also wall-scale uisplays.

BisplayWalls will shoitly move fiom the iaiifieu woilus of ieseaich
anu militaiy uomains, anu Bollywoou imaginations, to ubiquity.
6u



Global Trends In Digital TV Assimilation Into The Cloud

Data Source: IEA, Gadgets and Gigawatts, Policies for Energy Efficient Electronics

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30
viueo game consoles, inheiently computing-centiic anu incieasingly Inteinet-connecteu, aie anothei
vaiiable in the enu-use accounting also often omitteu oi unuei-counteu. ulobal electiic use fiom game
consoles is estimateu to be Su to 6u TWh.
61
Each geneiation of game console has exhibiteu iising
powei iequiiements (on aveiage uoubling in the past uecaue) anu the games aie incieasingly playeu
online, thus auuing a netwoik tiaffic (anu powei) loau.


Video Game Trends Power-Hungry Consoles & The Rise of Online Gaming

Data Source: Wedbush, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Wall Street Journal


Anu then theie is the multi-uevice pei usei phenomenon. When a family has moie cais than iegisteieu
uiiveis, the extia cais cannot be useu simultaneously. That is not the case foi ICT uevices that can, anu
often aie opeiating simultaneously.


Proliferation of Multiple Digital Devices Per U.S. Household

Data Source: EIA, How Americans are Using Energy in Homes Today



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! #$%$&'( )*+,- %-*.)
31
Yet fuithei unuei-counting of ICT eneigy use aiises fiom the legacy appioach to uata collection. EIA's
estimate foi office PCs anu monitois uoes not incluue all the eneigy useu by equipment in the IT
'closets' of commeicial builuings. We can finu the iest of commeicial ICT haiuwaie in a catch-all
categoiy labeleu "othei" by EIA, a 'bucket' cieateu in the pie-Inteinet eia to aggiegate myiiau uevices
which collectively useu to use veiy little electiicity -- coffee makeis, watei pumps, seivice station
gasoline station pumps, CAT anu NRI anu x-iay machines, ATNs, elevatois, anu escalatois, anu
"telecommunication equipment."
62


"0thei" has giown to become the laigest single electiicity-using categoiy in the commeicial sectoi,
accounting foi Su% moie eneigy than lighting.
6S
,
64



Electricity In The U.S. Commercial Sector Hidden ICT Loads Swept Up In Other Uses

Data Source: EIA, ICF, How Small Devices are Having a Big Impact on U.S. Utility Bills


Incieaseu use of such things as escalatois anu gasoline pumps is extiaoiuinaiily unlikely to account foi
the size anu giowth of "othei" electiicity uses. In fact, iecent analysis founu that of the Suu TWh in
"othei" only 1Su TWh can be allocateu to coffee makeis, uistiibution tiansfoimeis, Evs useu inuoois,
meuical geai (NRI, CT, X-iay), elevatois, escalatois, watei pumping anu tieatment.
6S
This leaves SSu
TWh unaccounteu foi in the "othei" wheie we finu, as noteu, "telecommunications equipment."

Allocating only half of that SSu TWh to ICT equipment (specifying heie that theie iemains no
explanation foi what haiuwaie uses the iest), incieases the estimate of total 0.S. commeicial sectoi ICT
enu-use to neaily 2Su TWh. Extiapolating the 0.S. figuie globally, this implies as much as 6uu TWh of
electiicity may be omitteu in cuiient woilu-wiue commeicial sectoi ICT accounting, incieasing the
uppei iange foi all ICT enu-use to ioughly 1,2uu TWh.
66


Theie is yet moie uncounteu ICT enu-use in all the uevices opeiating anu embeuueu in inuustiial
equipment. While the ICT poition of such equipment is a small shaie of the inheient eneigy use of the
haiuwaie in which it is embeuueu, that uoes not obviate the fact that the ICT piece is a new electiic-
using featuie. (Foi example, a smait uigital motoi will use less electiicity oveiall, but the embeuueu
logic uevices aie new ICT loaus, anu as that uevice incieasingly connects to the Clouu, it will uiive
collateial ICT electiic use theie too.) Finally, in uue couise, we will see the emeigence of - all-electiic -
SB piinting migiating manufactuiing into a new moie uigital anu electiifieu eia.
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32
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It takes eneigy, uominantly electiicity, to manufactuie ICT haiuwaie. Builuing one PC uses about the
same amount of eneigy as making a iefiigeiatoi, foi example.
67
Annualizeu, the eneigy to fabiicate a
PC is thiee to foui times that of a iefiigeiatoi because the lattei is useu thiee to foui times longei.
68

Even enteipiise haiuwaie is ieplaceu fiequently. Bata centei opeiatois iank iapiu auoption of new
tech as a highei piioiity than piouuct lifespan by a 71% to 26% maigin.
69
The fastei ICT piouucts aie
obsoleteu, the gieatei the manufactuiing eneigy. The obsolescence iate is, if anything, acceleiating.

Semiconuuctois uominate eneigy in ICT manufactuiing. It takes 1 - 2 kWh to make a squaie
centimetei of miciopiocessoi.
7u
The woilu's $Suu billionyeai semiconuuctoi inuustiy piouuces
hunuieus of billions of squaie centimeteis.
71
At the enu of useful life the silicon uevice has no inheient
mateiial oi eneigy value - it's tiash. The embouieu eneigy can't be iecycleu; it has been consumeu.


Energy Embodied in Manufacturing a Cellular Base Station


Data Source: IEEE
Cumulative capital investment in the hardware of the U.S. cellular network alone now approaches $400 billion.
72



As new moie complex ICT technologies aie auopteu, embouieu eneigy incieasingly uominates the total
life-cycle eneigy pictuie. It takes yeais befoie the electiicity to opeiate a cellulai base station equals
the eneigy embouieu in manufactuiing it. As system opeiatois acceleiate equipment upgiaues anu
expansion, to biing new featuies anu to ieuuce electiicity costs, those expenuituie not only inciease
manufactuiing eneigy use, but have the effect of shifting futuie opeiational eneigy savings to
immeuiate, possibly gieatei, eneigy useu in manufactuiing.


Embodied v. Operating Energy For A Cellular Base Station


Data Source: IEEE
Embodied energy accounted for 25% of a cellular networks total life-cycle energy use in 2005 and grew to 43% by 2007.
73


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Foi a smaitphone, the embouieu eneigy ianges fiom 7u to 9u% of the electiicity the phone will use
ovei its life, counting iechaiging its batteiy.
74
,
7S
,
76
Thus, the eneigy use of smaitphone itself (i.e.,
excluuing netwoiks anu uata centeis) is totally uominateu by manufactuiing, not by the efficiency of
say the phone's wall-chaigei oi batteiy. This is quite unlike othei consumei piouucts.

Foi a iefiigeiatoi, embouieu eneigy is just 4% of total life-cycle eneigy; powei to iun the fiiuge
uominates.
77
Foi a cai, only 2u% of life-cycle eneigy is in manufactuiing; buining gasoline ovei the
cai's life accounts foi 8u% - the inveise of the smaitphone. (Theie aie 'hiuuen' netwoik eneigy costs
associateu with cais, foi example - highways, iefineiies, etc. - but pio iata allocation is @9 CA?ACAD,
unlike ICT netwoiks wheie netwoik eneigy costs aie enoimous anu can uominate, as coveieu heiein.).


Energy Associated With Manufacturing And Charging a Cell Phone
(excludes wireless networks, data centers, etc.)


Data Source: Nokia
Steel & aluminum comprise 60% of the embodied energy of a car,
78
offering easy energy-saving recycling. Under 10% of cell phone embodied
energy is associated with bulk materials; semiconductors dominate.
79
Transport is moving materials to factories, product to consumers.


Cuiient estimates put global ICT equipment manufactuiing between 4uu anu 7Su TWh annually,
counting PCs, peiipheials, netwoik geai anu uata centeis.
8u
,
81
Theie is consiueiable vaiiability in the
liteiatuie on manufactuiing eneigy intensity, in pait because much infoimation is piopiietaiy.
82
Anu
most estimates unuei-count oi uon't incluue Tvs. Incoipoiating only 2u% of the 7uu million Tvs maue
a yeai auus about 8u TWh, biinging the ICT manufactuiing total uppei bounu to ovei 8uu TWh.
Finally, completely unaccounteu - electiicity useu by the $Suu billion inuustiy that piouuces softwaie.


Energy Associated With Manufacturing All The Hardware In the ICT Ecosystem



Data Source: As cited in text above
Current analyses omit or under-count TVs & also use 2011 data for smartphones and tablets both of which have doubled since then.
83


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34
Pievailing estimates of ICT manufactuiing eneigy unuei-count touay's ieality given iecent giowth in
both enu-use uevices anu infiastiuctuie. The numbei of cell toweis globally (anu in the 0.S.) has
giown Su% in the past five yeais
84
- a peiiou that post-uates uata useu in most analyses. Anu now the
global ICT ecosystem is expanuing into eveiy segment of the economy fiom inuustiial machines to
health caie to tianspoitation, wheie machine uata accounts foi a iising shaie of the Inteinet.
8S

Engineeis talk of "planetaiy-scale RFIB" wheie sensois will tiack not just high-value assets, but
eveiything fiom floweis to inuiviuual pills.
86



Rise of the Machines Share of Digital Universe Coming from Machine Data

Data Source: EMC and IDC Digital Universe 2013
As sensors and wireless network costs collapse, the quantity of machine data rises as does its share of the Internet ecosystem.


This all implies moie giowth in semiconuuctoi manufactuiing foi the Clouu's ecosystem. The
inuustiial anu automotive use of semiconuuctois is foiecast to giow as much as that in the uata maiket
by 2u1S
87
-- the aveiage cai will have $Suu of semiconuuctois by 2u1S, compaieu to $S4u touay. (This
will collateially inciease uigital netwoik tiaffic too, as eveiything in cais incieasingly connects to the
Inteinet.) A 1u% shaie of just iesiuential "things" becoming smait will leau to a Su% iise in total
semiconuuctoi uemanu.
88
Notably, China has about Su% global maiket shaie in semiconuuctoi
manufactuiing, wheie 8u% of the electiicity is supplieu by coal.
89



Global Sales of Semiconductors Growing Fast For The Machine-to-Machine Internet



Data Source: PwC, 2012
Growth in sales undercounts the growth in devices shipped due to declining average unit prices.

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Estimates of ICT eneigy use aie baseu on many assumptions, notably foi example what shaie of Tv to
allocate. Nost estimates oiiginate in uata fiom the pie-tablet anu pie-smaitphone eia, pie-uating
giowth in tiaffic anu eneigy use fiom wiieless bioaubanu.
9u
Anu even the piecision of estimates foi
uata centeis masks the fact that much is infeiieu anu not baseu on actual (piopiietaiy) consumption.


Estimated Global Electricity Used in the ICT Ecosystem



Nost cuiient estimates likely unueistate global ICT eneigy use by as much as 1,uuu TWh since up-to-
uate uata aie unavoiuably "omitteu". At the miu-point of the likely iange of eneigy use, the total ICT
ecosystem now consumes about 1u% of woilu electiicity supplieu foi all puiposes. Foi ICT eneigy use
to 'only' uouble ovei the next uecaue (as illustiateu below), huge gains in efficiency will be neeueu - at
a time when efficiency gains in ICT have sloweu.
91
ICT will likely consume tiiple the eneigy of all Evs in
the woilu by 2uSu (assuming an optimistic 2uu million Ev goal).
92
0i, in othei teims, tianspoiting bits
now uses Su% moie eneigy than woilu aviation, anu will likely use twice as much by 2uSu.
9S



Global Trends in Electricity Use

Data Source: For EVs, Polk & calculation; lights from IEA; Cloud from this report.
One industry analysis forecasts 2020 ICT energy use at 140% of todays level.
94
Greenpeace estimates it will triple in a decade.

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The ICT ecosystem has joineu the ianks of majoi eneigy-consuming featuies of the global economy.

0ne iecent global suivey founu: "Eneigy cost anu availability is the #1 woiiy of uata centei
opeiatois."
9S
The iesult is unsuipiising. A typical uata centeis costs ioughly $7 million pei megawatt
to builu, anu anothei $9 million pei megawatt foi the cost of electiicity ovei the facility's 1u-yeai
opeiating life, assuming low-cost powei.
96
Thus, foi example, a single Su NW enteipiise uata centei
siteu in Iowa (7u% coal, 2S% winu) insteau of highei cost Califoinia (no coal), saves $SSu million in
electiicity expenses ovei the life of that single uata centei.

But 8u% of global ICT electiicity use is highly uispeiseu anu not consumeu at the visible waiehouse-
scale uata centeis. Thus the cost anu availability of electiicity foi the Clouu is uominateu by the same
iealities as foi society at laige - obtaining electiicity at the highest availability anu the lowest possible
cost.

In all scenaiios, global ICT electiic use is giowing, peihaps much moie uiamatically than most analysts
iealize. The implications of the tienus summaiizeu heiein have not gone unnoticeu in scientific ciicles.
"As the use of the Inteinet continues to giow anu massive computing facilities aie uemanuing
that peifoimance keep uoubling, uevoting coiiesponuing incieases in the nation's electiical
eneigy capacity to computing may become too expensive."
+;9 *>8>F9 BL .BC=>8A?J O9FLBFCG?:9N 4GC9 $I9F BF "9P8 -9I9EQ National Acauemy of Sciences

In eveiy cieuible foiecast -- incluuing fiom the EIA, IEA, BP, Exxon -- coal continues to be the laigest
single souice of electiicity foi the woilu. Coal's uominance aiises fiom the impoitance of keeping costs
uown while pioviuing evei-gieatei quantities of electiicity to the giowing economies, anu as the IEA
iecently noteu, the absence of cost-effective alteinatives at the scales the woilu neeus.
97
The IEA also
foiecasts that the seconu laigest souice of new electiicity will come fiom ienewables - peihaps foi
some theie is iiony in the uigital ecosystem being fueleu by the combination of coal anu ienewables in
paitneiship, wheiein the foimei pioviues the essential low-cost anu high-availability base.

In an evei-moie uigital economy, the uemanu foi ieliability iises even fastei. Bowevei, a global suivey
of utilities in 4S countiies founu 46% of executives in the matuie maikets expect cuiient utility tienus
to inciease the iisks of blackouts by 2uSu, only 18% see a uecieaseu iisk.
98



Global Electricity Supply Everything Grows & Coal Dominates


Data Source: 2013 Outlook for Energy ExxonMobil
Coal is the largest single source of new global electric supply over the past two decades, and continues to be so for the next two, and remains
at or near todays 40% for global supply even in 2025.
99


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The giowth in the eneigy-intensive wiieless Inteinet in emeiging maikets is occuiiing
contempoianeously with iising electiicity costs. Rising ICT loaus auu auuitional piessuie to local
utility uecisions ielating to the puisuit of ieliable low-cost electiicity.


Cost of Power for Wireless Networks in Latin America

Data Source: Telefonica
Average cost trends for power-to-the-tower in six Latin-American countries.


In the ICT ecosystem powei has to be available at the DGC9 8AC9 that infoimation flows. This ieality
means that uecision to use, foi example, incieasing amounts of eneigy fiom winu tuibines cieates a
challenge -- while the oveiall availability of winu powei is in the 2u to Su% iange, when the winu is
available it is on aveiage out of phase with uata tiaffic uemanu. Conventional powei plants opeiate
24x7 anu have 8u to 9u% availability. Foi winu faims to be a viable supplement to info-centiic powei
neeus, othei powei plants aie neeueu to anchoi the netwoik. In most of the woilu, the powei
netwoiks aie anchoieu by powei plants fueleu with coal, uianium oi natuial gas.


Typical Daily Cycles:
Data Center Traffic & Power Demand v. Wind Power Output

Data Source: Akamai, RISO National Laboratory


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38
088$-),1 0 << )'$. (.,-+ "#$ %&'() .02$ $-$4+5T

A clouu aichitectuie enables seivices to be accessible fiom multiple enu-use uevices, any time anu
anywheie. By "Clouu" heie we'ie not iefeiiing to the entiie Inteinet's infiastiuctuie (as we have
loosely uone so in the pieceuing papei), but to the business of using iemote centializeu uata centeis to
ieplace local on-site computing. Clouu seivices offei convenience anu cost savings that come fiom
shaiing haiuwaie anu softwaie in waiehouse-scale computing, whethei stoiing movies, photos anu
peisonal uata, oi scientific anu inuustiial uata-ciunching anu ieseaich, anu much moie yet.

Boing the same compute-stoie tasks in the Clouu insteau of on a local PC can also ieuuce total ICT
eneigy use because of the efficiency of using iemote shaieu iesouices. Recent stuuies have calculateu
these eneigy savings.
1uu
Shaiing in the Clouu is, in eneigy efficiency teims, equivalent to taking the
tiain insteau of uiiving.

But looking moie expansively at such analyses one finus that ".unuei <5=> ?@7?6=<A:;?>< clouu
computing can consume =57> >;>7B9 than computing on a local PC."
1u1
Those ciicumstance aie when
a usei accesses the Clouu fiequently.


Energy Used For Storing Data -- Local PC v. Cloud Storage
The Impact of Instagram, DropBox, Carbonite



Data Source: Green Cloud Computing
A laptop hard drive operates at ~1 watt whether accessing a photo twice a day (~ 0.1 downloads/hr) or accessing 100 photos. As download
frequency rises the Cloud can consume over 10 times more energy to store and access information than storing on a laptop.


The key eneigy vaiiable in Clouu analyses is the featuie that enables the Clouu in the fiist place - high-
speeu, often wiieless, connections. Wiieless eneigy consumption is now on tiack to become a
significant factoi. Eneigy use in the netwoiks is often ignoieu oi unuei-counteu, anu when incluueu
may assume only the use of highly efficient lanu-line connections that aie fiequently useu in business
applications, but evei less fiequently useu by consumeis - oi even by businesses in emeiging maikets
wheie (eneigy-intensive) wiieless bioaubanu is becoming the stanuaiu foim of connection.
1u2
,
1uS

o Wiieless netwoiks use the eneigy in 1 pounu of coal to tianspoit 1 uB.
1u4


If lowei costs anu gieatei convenience of using Clouu seivices leaus to significantly moie uata use -
anu collateially gieatei use of netwoiks -- oveiall eneigy consumption will iise. In (simplistic) eneigy
teims, this woulu be the equivalent of taking a cioss-countiy tiain iiue, anu using the financial savings
to take long cai tiips at each stop.

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39
Listening just once to a song stoieu in the Clouu uses less eneigy than puichasing anu shipping a CB,
taking into account manufactuiing anu tianspoit eneigy. Listening to the song a couple of uozen times
leaus to moie oveiall eneigy useu, laigely because of gieatei use of the netwoiks.
1uS
The Clouu uses
moie eneigy stieaming a high-uef movie just once than uoes fabiicating anu shipping a BvB.
1u6


In the case of Clouu-baseu softwaie-as-a-seivice, as the speeu (fiame iate) iises to iefiesh the local
uevice -- e.g., stieam viueo -- Clouu eneigy exceeus a local PC as speeus exceeu about SNBseconu.


Software -- Local PC v. Cloud
Software and movies in the Cloud e.g. Netflix

Data Source: Green Cloud Computing


In the case of piocessing-as-a-seivice - e.g., foi uata-intensive tasks such as conveiting viueo files to
NPEus, oi the equivalent in meuical oi inuustiial analytics -- the Clouu uses less eneigy so long as tasks
aie peifoimeu only occasionally; gieatei fiequency oi moie uata-intense tasks inciease oveiall eneigy.

Thus futuie Clouu eneigy use uepenus on whethei the low-cost anu convenience of Clouu seivices enus
up encouiaging gieatei uata use (anu, as exploieu pieviously, whethei uata tiaffic giows fastei than
gains in netwoik efficiency). So fai in the histoiy of ICT, lowei costs anu gieatei convenience have
uiiven astionomical inciease in global uata tiaffic; it is haiu to see why that tienu will stop now.


Processing -- Local PC v. Cloud
Amazon Elastic Cloud, Google Cloud Compute Engine



Data Source: Green Cloud Computing

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40
An E0 pioject uiiecteu at ieuucing cellulai eneigy use - because the "netwoiks aie incieasingly
contiibuting to global eneigy consumption" -- iuentifieu technologies that can yielu a 7u% ieuuction in
eneigy pei byte tianspoiteu.
1u7
But, global mobile tiaffic is foiecast to iise 2u-folu in five yeais.

Theie aie many iueas foi impioving netwoik efficiency: genetic algoiithms that auapt to usage, smait
antennas, spectium shaiing, new powei supplies, amplifieis, etc.
1u8
0ne solution to ieuuce cell towei
congestion anu eneigy use is to move tiaffic to in-builuing WiFi anu miniatuie cell 'toweis'. Tiny cigai-
box sizeu cell 'toweis' aie useu incieasingly; 2 million shippeu this yeai, with S7 million foiecast by
2u16.
1u9
Tiaffic on millions of such picocells oi femtocells, anu on WiFi, uoes not eliminate eneigy, it
moves it onto othei haiuwaie. Such highly uispeiseu netwoiks may inciease oveiall eneigy use when
counting both the in-builuing netwoik eneigy, anu the eneigy to manufactuie millions of picocells.
11u



The Impact of Counting The Embodied Energy In Increasing the Number of Cell Towers

Data Source: Cellular Networks with Embodied Energy, IEEE Network
More base stations lowers per-tower energy use & traffic congestion; total energy use rises when including embodied manufacturing energy.


Theie is a new factoi; at the coie of the global Inteinet all of tiaffic ultimately moves thiough high-
speeu fibei-optic Inteinet exchange points (IXPs). Engineeis have achieveu a 1u,uuu folu impiovement
in IXP speeus since the 198us.
111
But the iate of impiovement hit a physics wall aiounu 2uuS. Futuie
tiaffic giowth will iequiie new, uiffeient anu moie haiuwaie.


Speed Of Fiber Optic Networks At Global Internet Traffic Exchange Points (IXP)


Data Source: OECD Digital Economy Papers

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Impioving the eneigy efficiency of ICT equipment will not halt giowth in ICT electiicity use. In fact,
impiovements in computing efficiency have been coie uiiving foice incieasing ICT tiaffic, anu thus
eneigy use. Impioveu computing efficiency maue the Inteinet possible anu at least 1,uuu times moie
total eneigy is useu in ICT touay compaieu to when the Inteinet launcheu.

uains in ICT uevice efficiency have been on-going since the uawn of computing, leauing to moie oveiall
ICT eneigy use as the use of moie efficient uata giows fai fastei.


Computing Energy Efficiency v. Computing Energy Consumption

Computing is 10 million times more efficient than at the dawn of computing; total computing energy use increased 100,000 fold.


At the energy efficiency of computing in the early 1970s, one iPad would use as much electricity as 12,000 IBM mainframes of that era.
112



A single 199S eia miciopiocessoi iunning 24x7 consumes about 4u pounus of coal a yeai (4u% coal
geneiation). A 2u12 CP0 is much moie efficient; it opeiates Su times fastei while using only 1u times
moie powei. But the 2u12 CP0 buins 4uu pounus of coal a yeai, anu theie aie fai moie eneigy-
efficient 2u12 CP0s in the woilu than theie weie inefficient ones in 199S.

The inexoiable exponential uecline in eneigy useu pei byte has enableu the collateial, now fastei
exponential inciease in global uata tiaffic.


Computing Energy Efficiency & Total Global Digital Traffic

Data Source: IEEE Transactions, Into the Exacloud, Entropy Economics

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42
Efficiency impiovements stimulate uemanu, a well-iecognizeu economic piinciple anu a familiai
pattein in histoiy. Illumination has followeu a similai tiajectoiy to uata. As the costs of illumination
(lumen-houis) collapseu 1u,uuu folu fiom 18uu, illumination use iose exponentially. uiowth sloweu
aiounu 198u contempoianeous with a leveling off in efficiency gains. Now the auvent of supei-efficient
semiconuuctoi lighting poitenus histoiic tienus will ietuin anu lumen use will iise - but some
foiecasteis believe lumen use will bieak with the long-iun tienu anu now uecline with iising efficiency,
even as billions moie people in the woilu acquiie lighting.
11S



Illumination Efficiency v. Total Use of Lighting

Data Source: Heat, Power and Light, Fouquet 2008: lumen consumption for the U.K.


The histoiy of efficiency in global aviation tiacks the same tiajectoiy as in computing anu illumination.
Noie efficiency piopels uemanu. This basic economic iule bieaks uown only in fully satuiateu
maikets, such as with 0.S. automobiles wheie theie aie moie iegisteieu cais than iegisteieu uiiveis.
Satuiation in uemanu foi both aii tiavel anu uata in paiticulai aie fai fiom visible.


Aviation Energy Efficiency v. Total Global Airline Traffic

Data Source: FAA
GEs new turbine will be 25% more efficient with10% more thrust; lower operating costs will help propel, not slow, trends to more traffic.
114




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43
Some analysts believe that efficiency gains can now outpace uata tiaffic giowth, even though that has
not happeneu in the past.
11S


Neanwhile, the histoiic iate of impiovement in computing eneigy efficiency - uiiven laigely by
Nooie's Law - staiteu slowing uown aiounu 2uuS, even as the giowth in global tiaffic on the Inteinet
began acceleiating.
116
This combination aiithmetically guaiantees gieatei eneigy use with giowth in
uata tiaffic.
! ". youi wiieless, youi optical netwoiks, youi wiie line |netwoiksj, youi fixeu access |technologyj, youi
coie backbone netwoiks anu so foith . |aie seeingj a suuuen slowuown in the eneigy efficiency."
Thieiiy Klein, Alcatel-Lucent Bell Labs.

! "|Theie has beenj a shaip ieuuction in the iate of |computationj eneigy efficiency impiovements ovei
the last seveial yeais iesulting in the foimation of an asymptotic 'wall'." IEEE Tiansactions on Scaling
veiy Laige Integiation Systems.

! "We have achieveu the ultimate spectial |physicsj efficiency. "Naicus Weluon, CT0 Alcatel-Lucent.

! ".eneigy consumption in ICT netwoiks is incieasing ... |theie isj a gap between iapiu netwoik giowth
iates touay anu histoiical equipment efficiency impiovements -- a gap that piomises to inciease ovei the
uecaues aheau. . even consiueiing best-case piojecteu eneigy efficiency impiovements, |theyj aie not
expecteu to be sufficient to check the iate of eneigy consumption ovei the long teim." uieenTouch.

Netwoik opeiatois aie hoping to iauically impiove the eneigy efficiency of theii equipment anu
netwoiks, seeking gains gieatei than have occuiieu to uate.
! "The consumption of the netwoik staits to appioach total global electiicity supply in 2u2S. Cleaily
something neeus to be uone about this." Rou Tuckei, Biiectoi of CEET, Apiil 2u12

Cleaily neithei the above, noi the eailiei noteu National Acauemy of Sciences obseivation about the
eneigy cost of computing becoming "too expensive," will come to pass. Solutions will emeige in
semiconuuctois, softwaie anu opeiating aichitectuies. ulobal ICT efficiency will impiove, but so will
global ICT eneigy consumption - just as both have in the past.



Forecasts of Global Internet Power Demand

Source: GreenTouch, CEET


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1
New iefiigeiatoi SSu kWh pei EPA Eneigy Stai; ~7uu kWhyi weekly stieaming BB fiom |netwoik opeiationsj + |netwoik embouieu eneigyj +
|tablet embouieu eneigyj; note, ignoies uata centeis & enu-use tablet chaiging: ~ Suu kWhyi wiieless netwoik opeiations fiom BB viueo 2.8
uBhi pei Netflix, netwoik eneigy ~2 kWhuB. Note eneigy use vaiies w location (typeage equipment), system utilization (see Auei et al, "Bow
Nuch Eneigy is Neeueu to Run a Wiieless Netwoik." }une 2u12). Netwoik eneigy ianges fiom 19 kWhuB +;9 5BKAE9 &:B?BCH, 2u1S, ATKeainey,
to ~2 kWhuB pei CEET, +;9 OB69F BL )AF9E9DD .EB>@, Apiil 2u1S. Annualizeu embouieumanufactuiing eneigy to piouuce tablet (uetails in this
iepoit) ~1uu kWhyi pei tablet, anu cell netwoik opeiating eneigy equals annualizeu embouieu eneigy of netwoik equipment useu foi S yeais.
Refiigeiatoi embouieu eneigy auus S - 1u% to lifecycle eneigy use of iefiigeiatoi.
U
CiscoR +;9 `988GKH89 &FGa+F9?@D G?@ !?GEHDADR Nay 2u1S
S
IEA, +FG:bA?J .E9G? &?9FJH OFBJF9DD UXTZ
4
Baiclays Equity Reseaich, oil & gas inuustiy infiastiuctuie foiecast $S tiillion.
S
B0EEIA, (?89F?G8AB?GE &?9FJH $>8EBBb; Inteinational Eneigy Agency, 4BE@9? '>E9D; BP, &?9FJH $>8EBBb 2uSu; anu Exxon, +;9 $>8EBBb LBF &?9FJH
6
EIA, !??>GE &?9FJH $>8EBBbR 29:9CK9F UXTU
7
EIA, "0S economy anu electiicity uemanu giowth aie linkeu, but ielationship is changing," Naich 2u1S.
8
}ack E. Tiiplett, The Solow Piouuctivity Paiauox: What Bo Computeis Bo to Piouuctivity.," .G?G@AG? cB>F?GE BL &:B?BCA:D, Nay 1998
9
ZBNet, "uaitnei upgiaues 2u1S IT spenu to $S.7T," }anuaiy 2u1S
1u
Biian Bayes, "The Nemiistoi," !C9FA:G? 1:A9?8AD8, Naich-Apiil 2u11
11
Nills, +;9 (?89F?98 39JA?D )A8; .BGEN ! OF9EACA?GFH &P=EBFG8AB? BL 8;9 (C=G:8 BL 8;9 (?89F?98 B? &E9:8FA:A8H .B?D>C=8AB?, 1999.
o In 1999 anu 2uuu we publisheu the fiist evei estimate of the aggiegate use of electiicity associateu with the Inteinet the iesults of which we
piesenteu in *BFK9D, "Big Noie Coal, The PCs aie Coming." At that time theie weie no estimates to woik fiom anu none of touay's tiacking
inuices, iankings, oi ITC powei-ielateu consultancies & oiganizations existeu. Consequently, we useu the technique of sequential
appioximation baseu on best-available uata. The iepoit anu the ueiivative *BFK9D aiticle leau to a Congiessional heaiing, anu also inciteu
some iemaikably vitupeiative anu iiielevant obseivations (some of which continue to this uay). The woik ultimately inspiieu the EPA anu
numeious othei oiganizations to unueitake anu funu ieseaich on this issue, anu foi the inuustiy bioauly to iecognize the neeu to focus on
the eneigy-consuming aspects of ICT. The accuiacy of estimates of global ICT use then, anu touay, iemain uebatable, fiom eveiy souice.
12
Boston Consulting uioupR foi ueSI SNARTei2u2u, "The Role of ICT in Biiving a Sustainable Futuie," 2u12: uata aie piesenteu in teims of C02
emissions anu conveiteu to kWh baseu on S26.6 gC02kWh (pei uieenpeace, below, "The emission factois useu come fiom NcKinsey anu
vanttefall Cost Cuive, which aie not uiscloseu in the iepoit. 0sing a publicly-known global factoi foi the global caibon intensity of electiicity
piouuction, WRI's CAITi.") The conveision will slightly oveistate total kWh as the ueSI uocument incluues non-electiic eneigy contiibutions to ICT
such as vehicle tianspoit, but the lattei aie minoi
1S
Boston Consulting uioup foi ueSI SNARTei2u2u: +;9 'BE9 BL (.+ A? 2FAIA?J G 1>D8GA?GKE9 *>8>F9R 2u12
14
uieenpeace Inteinational, ,B6 .E9G? AD /B>F .EB>@, Apiil 2u12
1S
Somavat anu Namboouiii, "&?9FJH .B?D>C=8AB? BL O9FDB?GE .BC=>8A?J (?:E>@A?J OBF8GKE9 .BCC>?A:G8AB? 29IA:9DRS cB>F?GE BL 4F99? &?JA?99FA?J,
2u11 -- 1,2uu TWh; uses 2uu7 Eiicsson uata foi mobile netwoiks, no smaitphones; manufactuiing not counteu
16
uieenpeaceR ,B6 .E9G? (D /B>F .EB>@., 2u12, 5Gb9 (+ 4F99?N .EB>@ .BC=>8A?J G?@ A8D .B?8FAK>8AB? 8B .EACG89 .;G?J9, 2u1u --1,1uu TWh;
uieenpeace focuses on Clouu not all of ICT ~ 6uu TWh; we auu back in "computeis anu uevices" pei uieenpeace use of ueSI uata
17
Boston Consulting uioupR foi ueSI SNARTei2u2u, +;9 'BE9 BL (.+ A? 2FAIA?J G 1>D8GA?GKE9 *>8>F9R 2u12 -- 1,8uu TWh; foi bioaubanu wiieless uses
same (olu) 2uu7 Eiicsson wiieless uata noteu above
o ueSI uata is in C02 emissions; conveiteu to kWh S26.6 gC02kWh pei uieenpeace above: ". |ueSIj emission factois useu come fiom
NcKinsey anu vanttefall Cost Cuive, which aie not uiscloseu in the iepoit. 0sing a publicly-known global factoi foi the global caibon
intensity of electiicity piouuction.") Conveision slightly oveistates kWh as ueSI incluues some minoi non-kWh useu in tianspoitation.
18
www.BiingBataCenteisBeie.com
19
BataCenteiBynamics, "Cyius0ne on tiack foi Becembei uata centei opening,"1u Septembei 2u12
2u
"The Tech Block, "*G:9KBBbdD D9:B?@ !C9FA:G? @G8G :9?89F 69?8 B?EA?9 H9D89F@GH G?@ A8dD G K9GD87S !=FAE UXTUe 4u NW loau pei uigaom; $u.uSkWh
auvantage v. national aveiage; savings uo not incluue planneu seconu phase; 4u% powei fiom coal
21
Baseu on estimateu ~ 8u NW of uemanu pei $1B of uatacentei capacity (NW$ fiom Amazon) anu maximum ~14u NW of uoogle-investeu oi
contiacteu winu capacity in Iowa: winu faims SS% availability pei Iowa 0tilities Boaiu => 4S NW equivalent of (episouic) supply to the giiu
22
ZBNet, "The 21st Centuiy Bata Centei: An oveiview," Apiil 2, 2u1S.
2S
.;B?JfA?J 5>?A:A=GE 4BI9F?C9?8 "96D, 2u11, anu $1O 5GJGgA?9, ".;A?GdD .EB>@ .A8A9D," }une 2u12,
24
Somavat anu Namboouiii
2S
uieenpeace, 2u1u
26
0.S. EPA, '9=BF8 8B .B?JF9DD B? 19FI9F G?@ 2G8G .9?89F &?9FJH &LLA:A9?:HRAugust 2, 2uu7
27
BatacenteiBynamics, OB69FA?J 8;9 2G8G:9?89F, 2u1S
28
BatacenteiBynamics, "Bensity, Powei anu Biiving Nouulai Bata Centei Efficiency," S }une 2u1S
29
0ptime Institute 2u12 Bata Centei global suivey, ,B6 @B9D HB>F BFJG?AgG8AB? C9GD>F9 O0&Q, 2u12
Su
Boston Consulting uioup SNARTei 2u2u
S1
BatacenteiBynamics, "Niciosoft's Softwaie Resilient Bata Centeis," S Apiil 2u1S.
S2
Pike Reseaich, 4F99? 2G8G .9?89FDN (+ &f>A=C9?8R OB69F G?@ .BBEA?J (?LFGD8F>:8>F9R G?@ 5B?A8BFA?J G?@ 5G?GJ9C9?8 +BBED, 2u12
SS
Boston Consulting uioup SNARTei 2u2u: u.2 ut => ~ 4uu TWh (S26.6 gC02kWh pei uieenpeace noteu)
S4
uieenpeace 2u1u: uata foi 2uu7; foiecast 9S1 TWh by 2u2u foi telecoms alone
SS
Foistei, et al foi Plextek, 0fcom, eftec, 0?@9FD8G?@A?J 8;9 &?IAFB?C9?8GE (C=G:8 BL .BCC>?A:G8AB? 1HD89CD, 2uu9
S6
Tuckei et al, "Evolution of WBN 0ptical IP Netwoiks: A Cost anu Eneigy Peispective," cB>F?GE BL -AJ;86GI9 +9:;?BEBJH, FEBR0ARY 1, 2uu9
S7
CTIA Semi-Annual Wiieless Inuustiy Suivey, yeai-enu 2u12
S8
Nobilthinking, "4EBKGE CBKAE9 D8G8AD8A:D UXTURS Becembei 2u12: Inteinational Telecommunication 0nion, Novembei 2u11
S9
Auei et al, "Bow Nuch Eneigy is Neeueu to Run a Wiieless Netwoik.", Eneigy Awaie Rauio anu neTwoik tecBnologies, }an. 2u1u to }une 2u12
4u
Basan et al, "uieen Cellulai Netwoiks: A Suivey, Some Reseaich Issues anu Challenges," (&&&, Sept 2u11
41
Smith et al, "Thiough the Looking ulass," (&&& 1BEA@<18G89 .AF:>A8D 5GJGgA?9, Wintei 2u12
42
(?LB)BFE@, "ualaxy S III anu iPhone S useis aie biggest uata hogs," }anuaiy 14, 2u1S
4S
)GEE 18F998 cB>F?GE, "Why Is Youi New iPau Such a Bata Bog." Naich 2u, 2u12 (199 F9EG89@ %A@9B 1=99@ +FG= ->FbD A? "96 AOG@7h
44
Abuulkafi et al, "Eneigy Efficiency of Beteiogeneous Cellulai Netwoiks: A Review," cB>F?GE BL !==EA9@ 1:A9?:9DR 2u12
4S
0ECB, 3FBG@KG?@ D8G8AD8A:D >=@G89, 7 Febiuaiy 2u1S
46
Eiicsson, 5BKAEA8H '9=BF8 -+& G?@ DCGF8=;B?9 >=8Gb9 @FAI9D IA@9B 8FGLLA: JFB68;, }un S, 2u1S
47
19 kWhuB pei ATKeainey foi uSNA, +;9 5BKAE9 &:B?BCH 2u1S, ~2 kWhuB pei CEET, +;9 OB69F BL )AF9E9DD .EB>@, Apiil 2u1S
48
Foistei, et al
49
Boston Consulting uioup SNARTei2u2u, uieenpeace, Somavat anu Namboouiii
Su
Eneigy Saving Tiust, "The elephant in the living ioom: how oui appliances anu gaugets aie tiampling the gieen uieam," 2u11
!"# %&'() *#+,-. /,0" %'1&

! #$%$&'( )*+,- %-*.)
45

S1
EIA foiecasts incluue new uses foi electiicity but not necessaiily allocateu to ICT, noi ieflecting iecent acceleiation of new ICT tienus.
S2
NRBC, "The Impact of Consumei Electionics on Bome Electiicity 0se," 2u11
SS
Fiaunhofei Centei foi Sustainable Eneigy Systems, &?9FJH .B?D>C=8AB? BL .B?D>C9F &E9:8FB?A:D A? 0717 ,BC9D A? UXTX, Becembei 2u11; T]Z +);
A? UXTX LBF GEE .&R WW +); LBF (?LB +9:;, _X +); LBF +% i D98 8B=
S4
Kwatia et al, 5AD:9EEG?9B>D &?9FJH -BG@D A? 3>AE@A?JD, ACEEE, }une 2u1S
SS
Foistei, et al
S6
IEA, 4G@J98D G?@ 4AJG6G88DR OBEA:A9D LBF &?9FJH &LLA:A9?8 &E9:8FB?A:DR 2uu9
S7
Paik et al, "Tv Eneigy Consumption Tienus anu Eneigy-Efficiency Impiovement 0ptions," LBL, }uly 2u11; Note: IEA 2uu8 est. 27S TWh
S8
Byman, ueneial Counsel, Netflix, Testimony befoie Bouse Eneigy & Commeice Committee, }une 27, 2u12.
S9
Note: also excluueu heiein, anu elsewheie, is the use of (uigital-centiic) laige viueo uisplays in commeicial, ieseaich anu enteitainment.
6u
Leigh et al, "Scalable Resolution BisplayWalls," OFB:99@A?JD (&&&, }anuaiy 2u1S.
61
Bittingei et al, "Electiicity consumption anu eneigy savings potential of viueo game consoles in the 0niteu States," &?9FJH &LLA:A9?:HR Naich 2u12
62
EIA, Eneigy &LLA:A9?:H +F9?@D A? '9DA@9?8AGE G?@ .BCC9F:AGE 3>AE@A?JD, 0SB0E, Eneigy Efficiency anu Renewable Eneigy, 0ctobei 2uu8
6S
0.S. EPA, ICF InteinationalR ,B6 1CGEE 29IA:9D GF9 ,GIA?J G 3AJ (C=G:8 B? 0717 08AEA8H 3AEEDR UXX\7
64
EIA, Annual Eneigy 0utlook 2u12
6S
EIAO Niscellaneous Electiicity Seivices in the Builuings Sectoi
66
Some global commeicial ICT use is likely accounteu foi (anu thus some uouble counting heiein) in BataCenteiBynamics annual suivey attempts
to captuie uistiibuteu small IT closets. Note we extiapolate fiom a likely unuei-counting by incluuing only Su% of "othei" un-allocateu EIA uata.
67
NIT, ! +BBE 8B &D8ACG89 5G89FAGED G?@ 5G?>LG:8>FA?J &?9FJH LBF G OFB@>:8R 2uu9
68
Navigant Consulting, foi EIA, "Resiuential anu Commeicial Builuing Technologies - Refeience Case," Septembei, 2u11, anu
R. Lucky, "Cellphones anu cameias uon't iipen, like bananas, on the way to the stoie," (&&& 1=9:8F>C, Septembei 2u12
69
0ptime Institute 2u12 Bata Centei Inuustiy global suivey
7u
(?89F?G8AB?GE +9:;?BEBJH 'BG@CG= LBF 19CA:B?@>:8BFD UXXj 9@A8AB? -- 1.9 kilowatt-houis pei squaie centimetei of miciochip
71
R. Boeiing, Y. Nishi, "Limits of Integiateu Ciicuit Nanufactuiing," OFB:99@A?JD BL 8;9 (&&&, Naich 2uu1
72
CTIA Semi-Annual Wiieless Inuustiy Suivey, http:www.ctia.oigauvocacyieseaichinuex.cfmAIB1uS16
7S
Bumai et al, "Rethinking Eneigy Efficiency Nouels of Cellulai Netwoiks with Embouieu EneigyRS (&&& "986BFb, NaichApiil
74
Euiopean Waste fiom Electiical anu Electionic Equipment (WEEE) Biiective
7S
NetoR MLifecycle costs electionicsRS Eiasmus 0niveisity Rotteiuam, 2uu8
76
Emmeneggei et al, "Life Cycle Assessment of the Nobile Communication System 0NTS,", Int } LCA 2uu4
77
Neto
78
Weiss et al., 0N TBE R0AB IN 2u2u: A life-cycle analysis of new automobile technologies Eneigy Lab, NIT, 0ctobei 2uuu
79
NokiaR (?89JFG89@ OFB@>:8 OBEA:H OAEB8 OFBk9:8N -AL9 .H:E9 &?IAFB?C9?8GE (DD>9D BL 5BKAE9 O;B?9DR !=FAE UXXW7
8u
Boston Consulting uioupR foi ueSI SNARTei2u2u] Netwoiks & BC aie 2uu7 uata
81
Boston Consulting uioup
82
In anothei analysis, &?9FJH (?89?DA8H BL .BC=>89F 5G?>LG:8>FA?J foi example, the eneigy iequiieu to manufactuie PCs is not seen a 6uu kWh as
citeu in SNARTei, but closei to 1,uuu -- 2,uuu kWh.
8S
Boston Consulting uioup SNARTER; 0ses uata fiom 2u11 foi tablets shippeu (7u million) & smait phones (S6u million); both uoubleu by 2u12 to
1Su & 72u million; netwoik uata fiom 2uu7, since then +Su% in cell toweis (anu associateu manufactuiing); uata centei embouieu eneigy 2uu7.
84
CTIA Semi-Annual Wiieless Inuustiy Suivey
8S
29DAJ? "96D, "The Inteinet of Things' Impact on Neuical Caie," Nay 2, 2u1S
86
Nichael et al, "Planetaiy-Scale RFIB Seivices in an Age of 0beiveillance," OFB:99@A?JD BL 8;9 (&&&, Septembei 2u1u
87
PwC, *GD89FR JF99?9FR DCGF89FN F9G:;A?J K9HB?@ 8;9 ;BFAgB? A? 8;9 6BFE@ BL D9CA:B?@>:8BFDR 2u12
88
&&+AC9D, "The Inteinet of Things' next wave," Semico Reseaich, Nay 1S, 2u1S
89
PwC, .;A?GlD AC=G:8 B? 8;9 D9CA:B?@>:8BF A?@>D8FH, }une 2u12
9u
Boston Consulting uioup SNARTER; "The iapiu inciease in tiaffic volume will necessitate wiieless netwoik capacity upgiaues anu auoption of
fouith-geneiation (4u) LTE netwoiks." - but authois claim -- "Efficiency impiovements, howevei, aie expecteu to lowei the eneigy consumeu pei
unit of mobile tiaffic,"
91
IEEE Tiansactions, 2u11; Naicus Weluon, CT0 Alcatel-Lucent, 2u11; Thieiiy Klein, heau of gieen ieseaich, Alcatel-Lucent Bell Labs.
92
Polk, &E9:8FA: %9;A:E9 29CG?@N 4EBKGE LBF9:GD8 8;FB>J; UXZXR 0ctobei 2u11 (2uue6 Evs); calculation 1uk milesvehicle u.S kWhmi.
9S
Woilu Bank, !AF +FG?D=BF8 !?@ &?9FJH &LLA:A9?:HR UXTU
94
Boston Consulting uioup SNARTER
9S
Batacentei Bynamics
96
Nillei, "Facebook's $1 Billion Bata Centei Netwoik," 2G8G .9?89F m?B6E9@J9, Febiuaiy 2u12; $9 millionNW 1u-yi cumulative $u.1ukWh
97
IEA, +FG:bA?J .E9G? &?9FJH OFBJF9DD UXTZ; 42% of woilu's electiicity coal-fiieu touay; 67.S% all supply giowth 2uuu - 2u1u fiom coal.
98
PwC, +;9 D;G=9 BL =B69F 8B :BC9N TU8; O6. !??>GE 4EBKGE OB69F n 08AEA8A9D 1>FI9H, 2u12
99
Exxon mouel uses an implausible assumption of a $6uton caibon tax. Absent such a tax, coalgas balance shifts to moie low-cost coal globally.
1uu
Nasanet et al, +;9 &?9FJH &LLA:A9?:H OB89?8AGE BL .EB>@<3GD9@ 1BL86GF9N ! 0717 .GD9 18>@HR -G6F9?:9 39Fb9E9H "G8AB?GE -GKBFG8BFH, }une 2u1S.
1u1
Baliga et al, "uieen Clouu Computing," OFB:99@A?JD BL 8;9 (&&&, }an 2u11
1u2
Accentuie, .EB>@ .BC=>8A?J G?@ 1>D8GA?GKAEA8H, 2u12: "Eneigy use to tiansmit uata between useis anu seiveis was not moueleu in uetail. .
Bowevei. uata-intensive (consumei) applications, such as music uownloau oi viueo stieaming, . contiibutes a significant shaie to the oveiall
footpiint anu iequiies moie in-uepth analysis."
1uS
NRBC, (D .EB>@ .BC=>8A?J !E6GHD 4F99?9FQR 0ctobei 2u12
1u4
CEET, 1.S kWhuB; 1u,uuu BT0kWh, 1S,uuu BT0lb coal
1uS
Bagfinn BachR +;9 2GFb 1A@9 $L +;9 +>?9N +;9 ,A@@9? &?9FJH .BD8 $L 2AJA8GE 5>DA: .B?D>C=8AB?, Bach Technology iepoit foi NusicTank:
"stieaming an album ovei the inteinet 27 times can use moie eneigy than the manufactuiing anu piouuction of its CB equivalent"
1u6
Seethaiam et al, 1;A==A?J 8B 18F9GCA?JN (D 8;AD D;AL8 JF99?Q 0?AI9FDA8H BL 5GDDG:;>D988D 29=8 BL .BC=>89F 1:A9?:9
1u7
EARTB website: Eneigy Awaie Rauio anu neTwoik tecBnologies.
1u8
Abuulkafi et al, Eneigy Efficiency of Beteiogeneous Cellulai Netwoiks: A Review, cB>F?GE BL !==EA9@ 1:A9?:9D, August u1, 2u12
1u9
Bleichei, "A Suige in Small Cell Sites," (&&& 1=9:8F>C, }anuaiy 2u1S
11u
Abuulkafi et al
111
Wellei anu BWooucock, (?89F?98 +FGLLA: &P:;G?J9N 5GFb98 29I9EB=C9?8D G?@ OBEA:H .;GEE9?J9D, 0ECB Bigital Economy, 2u1S
112
uieen Fiog, +;9 5GA?LFGC9N +;9 2A?BDG>F +;G8 )B>E@?l8 2A9
11S
, IEA, -AJ;8D -GKB>FdD -BD8R OBEA:A9D LBF &?9FJH<9LLA:A9?8 -AJ;8A?J, 2uu6.
114
The hottest jet engine evei guzzles less gas, uizmag, *9KF>GFH UjR UXTZ
11S
Boston Consulting uioup SNARTER: "Efficiency impiovements in netwoiks will neaily match the neeu foi the highei uata tiaffic..."
116
EETimes, ANB uses low-powei clock IP," 2u12