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O N T H L Y
Political Report
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O L L
O mp I L a T I O N
Conspiracy Theories
Fifty years after President John F. Kennedys assassination, the belief that more than one person was involved in his assassination remains the most widely held conspiracy theory in America. In an April 2013 poll, 59 percent said others were involved. In this issue of AEIs Political Report, we look at public views on a number of events that elicit conspiracy theories, from Franklin Roosevelts purported knowledge of the attack on Pearl Harbor to the belief that Osama bin Laden is alive. Comparisons across events are difcult with polls taken at different points in time, but it does not appear that any particular demographic group is more inclined to believe in conspiracy theories than any other.
Q: Im going to read some ways that some people felt when they rst heard that the President John F. Kennedy was dead, and Id like you to tell me which one of the statements on this card comes closest to your own feelings at the time . . . Very deepest feeling that it was done by Felt it quite deeply Crossed my mind but not deeply Never occurred to me 1963 Some Communist A segregationist or other radical to get or extreme rid of the President right-winger 13% 8% 15 10 40 32 32 50
Q: Turning now to the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963, there have been many theories about who was involved in the assassination. Id like to know if you think any of the following were involved in the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Do you think . . . ? Lyndon Johnson was involved in the assassination The Maa The CIA The Soviet Union Cubans
Note: Each category asked of a half sample. Source: Gallup, November 2003.
2003 18% 37 34 15 15
Q: Do you think . . . ? 2003 We know all the facts about the assassination of President John F. Kennedy There was a cover-up
Source: Fox News, October 2003.
14% 74
Q: There has been signicant speculation about the circumstances surrounding the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Which statement do you agree with more? There is nothing left to know about the circumstances surrounding the Kennedy assassination. Lee Harvey Oswald acted on his own to assassinate the President, and there was no conspiracy
Source: University of Virginia/Hart Research, May 2012.
2012 There are still too many questions surrounding Kennedys assassination to say that Lee Harvey Oswald acted by himself, or that there is not a larger conspiracy regarding the details of his death 75%
25%
Q: Do you think . . . ? One man was responsible for the assassination of President Kennedy Others were involved in a conspiracy Dont know
Source: AP-GfK/Roper, April 2013.
2013 24% 59 16
Pearl Harbor
Q: Here are several accusations that some people have made against the federal government in recent years. Please tell me if you think each of these is very likely, somewhat likely, or unlikely . . . ? Very likely that President Roosevelt knew in advance that the Japanese were going to bomb Pearl Harbor, but he did not warn our troops because he wanted to get the United States involved in World War II Somewhat likely Unlikely
Source: Scripps Howard/Ohio University, June 1997.
1997
16% 26 43
Waco
Q: Do you think . . . ? 1999 There has been an ofcial cover-up by the government or the FBI to keep the public from learning the truth about the events in Waco No cover up Dont know
Source: CBS News, October 1999.
62% 25 12
Aliens
Q: Do you . . . ? Believe a UFO crashed at Roswell, New Mexico, in 1947, and the government covered it up Do not believe Not sure
Source: Public Policy Polling, March 2013.
2013 21% 47 32
Q: Some Americans feel that ying saucers are real and that the federal government is hiding the truth about them from us. Do you think . . . ? Its very likely that ying saucers are real and that the federal government is hiding the truth about them from us Somewhat likely Not likely
Source: Scripps Howard/Ohio University, September 2007.
2007
11% 24 55
MLK Assassination
Q: Do you think . . . ? Martin Luther Kings assassination was the result of a conspiracy It was the act of one man only Not sure
Source: Gallup, May 1969.
Q: Do you think . . . ? The assassination of Martin Luther King was the act of one individual Part of a larger conspiracy
Source: CNN/Essence, March 2008.
Responses of
Moon Landing
Q: Do you . . . ? Believe the moon landing was faked Do not believe Not sure
Source: Public Policy Polling, March 2013.
2013 7% 84 9
2011 86% 11
Is Elvis Alive?
Q: There have been reports and rumors that Elvis Presley is still alive. Do you think . . . ? 1997 There is a possibility that Elvis is still alive 6% No 89 Not sure 5
Note: Asked of registered voters. Source: Fox News, August 1997.
9/11
Q: Do you . . . ? Believe the United States government knowingly allowed the attacks on September 11th, 2001, to happen Do not believe Not sure
Source: Public Policy Polling, March 2013.
2013
11% 78 11
Chem Trails
Q: Do you . . . ? Believe that the exhaust seen in the sky behind airplanes is actually chemicals sprayed by the government for sinister reasons Do not believe Not sure
Source: Public Policy Polling, March 2013.
2013
2013
14% 55 30
4% 88 7
Obamas Birthplace
Q: Do you think . . . ? Barack Obama was denitely born in the United States Probably born in the United States Probably born in another country Denitely born in another country May 2011 58% 22 10 7 March 2011 46% 26 15 10 July 2010 42% 29 16 11
Note: In May 2011, 28 percent of self-identied Republicans said Obama was probably (16 percent) or denitely (12 percent) born in another country. Nine percent of self-identied Democrats gave those responses. When the question was rst asked in July 2010, 41 percent of Republicans said he was probably or denitely born in another country. Fifteen percent of Democrats gave those responses. Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of July 2011.
AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew Rugg, Editor. Interns: Madeline Glista; Kate Wildman.
66%
60%
40%
30%
20%
10% 1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Q: Lets imagine for a moment that the Constitution allowed you to immediately remove everyone in Congress. If you could re every lawmaker on Capitol Hill right now, including your own Senators and representative, and hold new elections, would you . . . ? Would re every lawmaker on Capitol Hill right now and hold new elections Would not
Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: Fox News, October 2013.
Q: If there were a place on your ballot that allowed you to vote to defeat and replace every single member of Congress, including your own representative, would you . . . ? Would vote to replace every single member of Congress, including your own representative 60% Would not 35
Note: Asked of a half sample. Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, October 2013.
62% 35
A New Isolationism?
In 1945, Gallup started asking Americans whether it would be best for the future of this country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stayed out of world affairs. The question has been asked many times since then. So called isolationist sentiment reached a peak after the Vietnam War. That sentiment is higher now. In another question asked by the German Marshall Fund, a robust 77 percent of Americans in a 2013 say it is very or somewhat desirable that the United States exert strong leadership in world affairs.
Q: Do you . . . ?
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Think it will best for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs
61%
38%
1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Source: Gallup, National Opinion Research Center, Gallup/CNN/USA Today, Chicago Council on Global Affairs, latest that of March 2012.
Q: How desirable is it that . . . ? Very desirable that the United States exert strong leadership in world affairs Somewhat desirable Somewhat undesirable Very undesirable Very/somewhat desirable 2013 77% 2012 82 2011 85 2010 84 2009 87 2008 80 2007 84 2006 84 2005 85 2002 83
46% 31 10 8
Source: TNS-US and University Survey for Transatlantic Trends (a project of the German Marshall Fund and others), latest that of June 2013.
Dave Trott
Kerry Bentivolio
$400,000
One major Republican may be taking sides in the tea party vs. mainstream Republican ght: former President George W. Bush just made a $5,000 contribution to South Carolina Senator Lindsey Grahams reelection bid.
11 held by Republicans
13 held by Democrats
1 open in 2014
12 held by freshmen
Extreme Turnover
Its often said that incumbency is the greatest predictor of success in a House elections: those who currently hold ofce have a distinct advantage over any challengers. But as David Wasserman recently wrote in National Journal, extreme turnover has been common in a few House districts. One place actually had six different congressmen in that time: a Houston-area neighborhood named Skyscraper Shadows. The shapes of these districts have changed.
-Districts represented by at least ve different ofceholders in the past decade
Skyscraper, Shadow, TX 3 R, 3 D
Women Governors
In 2004 and 2007 a record number of women (nine) won governors races.
2004 and 2007,women who won governors races
9
According to the Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers, thus far, 27 women have led to run. Long-shot Wendy Davis in Texas may be the most prominent.
-Announced 2014 women gubernatorial candidates
10 open seats
27
In two states thus far (Pennsylvania and Massachusetts), women are challenging women in gubernatorial contests.
Fifty years after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, a new AEI Public Opinion Study looks closely at public attitudes about a variety of conspiracy theories. The collection brings together 50 years of data from over a dozen major pollsters. The study examines theories about the Kennedy assassination, Roswell, Pearl Harbor, MLK, the moon landing, Waco, 9/11, Osama bin Laden, and more. http://www.aei.org/papers/public-opinion-on-conspiracy-theories