ARTICLE IN PRESS

Energy 31 (2006) 29152925 www.elsevier.com/locate/energy

CO2 emissions change from the introduction of diesel passenger cars: Case of Greece
Efthimios Zervasa,, Stavros Poulopoulosb, Constantinos Philippopoulosb
partement des Syste `mes Energe tiques et Environnement, 4, rue Alfred Kastler, Ecole des Mines de Nantes, De F-44307 Nantes cedex 3, France b National Technical University of Athens, 9 Heroon Polytechniou Str., Zografou Campus, 157 80 Athens, Greece Received 15 February 2005
a

Abstract An efcient way to decrease the CO2 emissions is the replacement of gasoline passenger cars (PC) by diesel ones, which emit less CO2. This can be more effective in Greece where the percentage of new diesel PC remains less than 1%, contrary to the other countries of the European Union, which have high diesel penetrations. The benet of CO2 emitted from new PC is studied in the case of an increased percentage of diesel PC in Greece, using several scenarios taking into account the current and future new car registrations and fuel consumption. The results show that a CO2 emission reduction of more than 5.2% can be achieved if a diesel penetration higher than 30% occurs in the case of current eet. If the penetration reaches 50%, this benet is higher than 10.5%. Exhaust CO2 emissions from future new PC will increase signicantly in this country and can be partially controlled by the introduction of diesel PC. r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Carbon dioxide; Diesel; Gasoline; Greece; Passenger cars

1. Introduction The majority of human energy production activities are based on the combustion of carbon-containing fuels and consequently they produce CO2, which is released to the atmosphere. The transport sector is an important source of CO2 in many countries [1,2]. As the CO2 emissions are responsible for the greenhouse effects, several ways are searched to control and decrease them, following, for example, the Kyoto protocol [3] or other agreements. In Western Europe, the Association of European Automobile Manufactures (ACEA) has proposed a volunteer average eet reduction of CO2 emissions to 140 g/km in 2008 [4]. However, even if modern vehicles emit less CO2 emissions compared to the older ones, the total CO2 emissions of the transport sector increase, due to the increase of the passenger car eet, but also because of other fuel-consuming factors (air conditioning, increased vehicle weight, emission control, etc.).
Corresponding author. Present address: CPERI/CERTH, 6 km Charilaou-Thermi, 57001, Thermi, Thessaloniki, Greece. Tel.: +30 23 10 49 81 98. E-mail address: efzervas@cperi.certh.gr (E. Zervas).

0360-5442/$ - see front matter r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2005.11.005

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An effective way of controlling the total CO2 emissions is to replace a number of gasoline passenger cars (PC) by diesel ones, which emit less CO2 for the same power demand. A previous study [5] showed a signicant decrease of CO2 emissions in USA by the introduction of diesel PC, but without a sales-weighed approach. Such an approach can better predict future CO2 emissions, as it takes into account the real conditions of each country. The current percentage of new diesel PC registrations is quite high in all European Union (EU) countries (average value of 40% in 2003), and can even reach 60% in the case of Austria or France [4,6]. However, Greece is an exception, as this percentage is only 1% [6,7]. An increase of the diesel PC percentage in Greece could be a very effective way to control CO2 emissions from the transport sector, which correspond to 21.5% of the total CO2 emissions in this country in 1998 [8]. In order to estimate the CO2 benet due to the increased diesel penetration in Greece, the current market of PC is rst analyzed and the future (in 2020) market is estimated. Several scenarios, taking into account the number of new PC in 2020, the segment distribution and the fuel consumption (FC) are constructed. The CO2 emissions are estimated for each scenario and compared to the current situation to assess the CO2 changes. A particular point is that current diesel PCs emits more particulate matter (PM) and NOx than gasoline vehicles. However, as emissions regulations become more stringent, the difference between diesel and gasoline PC emissions becomes smaller. For example, diesel particulate lters (DPF) are already commercially used and diesel PC equipped with DPF emit similar or even less PM than gasoline ones [9,10]. We estimate that in 2020, the impact on local atmosphere quality will be quite independent of the vehicle type as gasoline and diesel PC will have very similar exhaust emission standards. For this reason the four regulated pollutants (CO, HC, NOx, PM) are not taken into account in this study. 2. Assumptions and methodology used 2.1. Data and methodology used The data used in this work are extracted from the internet sites of Eurostat [6], World Resources Institute [11], International Road Federation [12], ACEA [4], Committee of French Automobile Manufactures [7], National Statistical Organization of Greece [13] and Association of Motor Vehicles Importers Representatives of Greece [14]. The weight and CO2 emissions on the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) of the PC come from the German Federal Motoring Authority (KBA [15], 2003 version). The current situation of the Greek PC market is rstly analyzed and compared with that of the European Union average. The evolution of the Greek and EU markets since 1970 is also compared. As the statistics of the new countries that jointed EU in 2004 are only partially available, only the former 15 member countries are studied here. Based on these data, the most probable scenarios for the Greek PCs market in 2020 are established. These previsions depend mainly on the situation of the Greek economy, but as such an estimation is very difcult in a long term, some basic assumptions are used in this work. The CO2 emissions changes are calculated for different percentages of diesel penetration in the Greek market. The comparison of CO2 emissions is based on the emissions of the certication data of the NEDC using the KBA le. The same annual mileage is assumed for the current and future gasoline and diesel PC. A two stage calculation is used: rst, the current CO2 emissions are estimated using the KBA le; secondly, the future CO2 emissions are estimated by applying factors taking into account the most probable future technologies [5]. This study is limited to CO2 emissions only from new registered PC and CO2 emissions from trucks or other heavy duty engines are not taken into account to estimate the changes in global CO2 emissions. In addition, the introduction of other technologies, such as hybrid or fuel cell vehicles, and the emissions of the other regulated pollutants are not considered in this study. Relative to its population and its FC, Greece has an important rening capacity, estimated to 21.4 thousands of tones in 2002 [6]. This value corresponds to 2.0 tones/inhabitant/year, against 1.4 in Germany, France and UK and 1.6 in Italy [6]. About the 25% of these products is exported [6]. An increase of diesel passenger car penetration in Greece, and thus an increased consumption of diesel fuel, will not change the rening process in this country, and thus CO2 emissions from reneries, but only the exported quantity of diesel fuel. For this reason and as this study is limited only in Greece, the CO2 emissions from reneries due to

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increased consumption of diesel fuel are considered as unchanged. From the other hand, there is no passenger car manufacturing in this country and thus no other impact on CO2 emissions from other industrial sources.

2.2. Analysis of the Greek passenger cars market The comparison between the Greek and EU PCs market is initially performed. The percentages of the Greek population and number of PC in the EU are presented in Fig. 1. In 2003, the Greek population corresponded to 2.9% of the total EU population, while a small increase is observed since 1970, when it corresponded to 2.58%. On the other hand, the percentage of the Greek PCs sharply increases: it reached 1.85% in 2001 from only 0.37% in 1970. If the same increasing rate continues, the passenger car eet percentage curve will reach the population percentage curve in 2012 (from a 3rd order polynomial t) or in 2028 (for a linear or a 2nd order t). Of course, this is only a basic assumption, as the most important parameters are the situation of the Greek economy and the governmental transport policy.

40 PC sales/1000 inhab.

80

20

% Population GR % PC Fleet GR PC/1000 hab. EU PC/1000 hab. GR % of GR

40

0 100

PC/1000 inhab.

400 Percentage

50 200

0 3 Percentage

0 1970 1980 1990 Year

Fig. 1. European Union of 15 countries members. Lower curves: percentage of Greek population and passenger car eet. Middle curves: number of PC/1000 inhabitants in the EU and in Greece and percentage of the Greek number over the EU one. Upper curves: number of new PC registrations per 1000 inhabitants in the EU and in Greece and percentage of the Greek number over the EU one.

2000

2010

2020

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80
Average EU Germany Spain

60

France Portugal

Percentage

Greece

40

20

0 1980 1985 1990 Year

Fig. 2. European Union of 15 countries members. Percentage of new diesel PC registrations in some EU countries and the EU average.

1995

2000

2005

The number of PC per 1000 inhabitants is also presented in Fig. 1 (middle curves). The average EU number was 488 PC per 1000 inhabitants in 2001, while the Greek one was only 323, corresponding to 66% of the average EU value. As the number of the Greek PCs increased sharply during these years, this percentage also followed this increase: from only 14% in 1970, it reached 30% in 1980, 49% in 1995 and 66% in 2001. This is because Greece had a quite high average annual increase of 9.3% PC/1000 inhabitants between 1970 and 2000 [16]. If the curves corresponding to the Greek and EU number of PC per 1000 inhabitants increase in the same way in the future, they will coincide between 2010 and 2018. The Greek passenger car eet increased by the new car registrations and by a rise in the average age of the vehicles already registered. For both parameters, an important difference is observed between the Greek and the average EU market. In 2003, 22 new PC/1000 inhabitants were registered in Greece, which is much lower than the 34 PC registered in EU (Fig. 1, upper curves), indicating that the Greek new PCs market may increase in the future. Moreover, the Greek eet is older than the average EU one (in 1998, this age was estimated at 10.2 years in Greece against 7.3 in UE [6]). The diesel penetration is very low in Greece: only 1% comparing to 40% in the average EU market (Fig. 2 [6,7,14]). In most of the EU countries, this percentage was only around 10% in 1980, but increased sharply to reach almost 60% in 2002 in several countries [6,7], but the Greek percentage remained extremely low. Another parameter taken into account in this work is the type of car segment. Table 1 presents the main characteristics of the 11 segments of the European PC market. The majority of the EU average and Greek market corresponds to four classes: Economic, Small Car, Lower Medium and Upper Medium. In the past, the Greek new PC registrations were composed by smaller cars than the EU average [7,13,14], but the two markets converge today. The average weight of gasoline PC in Greece was 1117 kg in 2003, against 1126 kg for the EU average. The corresponding values for the diesel PC are 1501 and 1366 kg; however, the Greek diesel average weight is not representative, as the number of diesel PC is very low in this country. 2.3. Current and future CO2 emissions from gasoline versus diesel passenger cars There is a relationship between the CO2 emissions of gasoline and diesel PC and their weigh using the KBA data [5]. Using the 2003 KBA le, the lines CO2 0.1479*Weight7.9 and CO2 0.1133*Weight8.2 are

Table 1 The 11 segments of the EU passenger car eet Diesel CO2 emissions GR 7.24 33.7 32.7 15.3 4.4 4.07 2.0 0.05 0.14 0.10 0.54 900 1021 1217 1396 1631 1749 1568 1716 1779 1969 1970 9.0 8.7 8.2 8.2 11.3 21.4 6.0 8.2 8.5 8.3 8.0 121.6 138.5 153.6 173.5 227.5 260.2 200.9 196.2 230.4 285.6 256.6 Registrations in 2003 (%) Weight CO2 emissions Registrations in 2003 (%) GR 17.2 13.5 12.9 14.9 14.5 16.2 14.5 12.3 11.7 10.6 9.42 0.98 18.0 36.4 23.5 6.41 2.12 4.3 1.35 0.35 0.77 2.0 0.04 0.33 4.64 44.1 7.96 11.7 0.00 29.9 0.04 0.5 0.62

Segment

Gasoline

Weight

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Average (kg) RSD (%) Average (g/km) RSD (%) EU 151 168.5 196 222.5 232.8 265.6 259 266.2 336.3 342.8 342.7 16.1 15.1 14.3 14.1 12.2 25.9 15.0 12.9 27.1 11.3 13.4 10.9 37.5 27.9 13.7 1.6 0.58 4.4 0.78 1.09 0.08 0.66

Average (kg) RSD (%) Average (g/km) RSD (%) EU

E. Zervas et al. / Energy 31 (2006) 29152925

Economic 839 Small car 947 Lower medium 1138 Upper medium 1340 SUV(o4m50) 1345 4 4 (o4m50) 1406 Superior 1510 Compact/people carrier 1697 Prestige 1712 4 4 (44m50) 1982 SUV(44m50) 2004

9.9 9.6 9.7 9.0 11.7 25.1 8.1 8.0 16.9 10.2 7.0

RSD: relative standard deviation.

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obtained for gasoline and diesel PC, respectively. For each car type (gasoline or diesel), no distinguish is made between manual and automatic transmission, even though there is a small inuence of this parameter [5], because the automatic gearboxes in almost inexistent in Greece [14]. The relative standard deviation (RSD) values of CO2 emissions are generally similar for gasoline and diesel PC and they increase with vehicle weight to reach a plateau at about 10%. However, we assume that an eventual replacement of gasoline PCs by diesel versions will occur within the same segment than the same weight. Using the average weight of each segment instead of the weight of each PC, two new lines are obtained: CO2 0.1702*Weight+6.7 and CO2 0.1398*Weight11.0 for gasoline and diesel PC, respectively. The RSD values are now slightly higher: around 15% instead of 10% in the previous case. However, the average difference between the estimated CO2 emissions using the 2003 KBA le and the average weight of each segment is quite low: not more than 1.8% in the case of gasoline PC and 2.8% in the case of diesel PC. The last two equations are used in this work for the current FC. However, the future FC will change. After 2005, European PC fulll Euro4 emission standards. However, stringent future emission standards will require advanced emission control technologies, like DPF or DeNOx technologies, which will increase the FC. On the other hand, fuel efciency will be improved by better combustion, decreased friction, etc. The work of Sullivan et al. [5], provides a list of technologies that are expected to increase or decrease future FC. According to this work, in 2015, a decrease of about 11% in FC is expected in the case of gasoline engines and a decrease of 03% in diesel ones. Other works, estimate some penalties or benets in FC due to future technologies: a 3% penalty for the use of a DPF [1719], a 5% penalty for the use of NOx trap technology [19,20], and a 1% penalty for the use of urea SCR [19]. Some changes in FC of advanced gasoline engines and transmissions are given in [21]. Taking into account the above estimations, the following four assumptions are used in this work for future FC of gasoline and diesel PC:

 

the diesel optimistic (DO) and pessimistic (DP) assumptions presumes 0 and +5 change in FC, because the FC increase from heavier after-treatment devices is considered as equal or 5% higher than the FC decrease from friction and engine or vehicle design improvements, the gasoline optimistic (GO) and pessimistic (GP) assumptions presumes a 10% and 5% decrease in FC because the FC decrease due to friction and vehicle or engine design improvements is much or slightly larger than the FC increase from heavier after-treatment devices.

After the inclusion of these corrections, the lines linking the CO2 emissions with the weight of PC are: GO: CO2 0.1532*Weight+6.7, GP: CO2 0.1617*Weight+6.7, DO: CO2 0.1398*Weight11.0 and DP: CO2 0.1468*Weight11.0. If, despite the heavy after-treatment devices, diesel FC decreases in the future, the CO2 benets from the increased percentage of diesel PC presented here will be more important. 2.4. Scenarios used for the future Greek passenger cars market Following the analysis of the Greek and EU markets, 15 scenarios are constructed to calculate the changes of the future (2020) Greek passenger car market (Table 2). Based on these scenarios, the estimation of the CO2 emissions changes corresponding to different percentages of diesel penetration (form 10% to 90%) is performed. These 15 scenarios are divided into three groups: 1. The scenarios using the current Greek new passenger car registrations and the current Greek segment distribution (scenarios 15, named GREEK). 2. The scenarios using the average number of current Greek and current EU new passenger car registrations and segment distribution (scenarios 610, named AVERAGE). 3. The scenarios using the current EU new passenger car registrations and segment distribution (scenarios 1115, named EU).

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E. Zervas et al. / Energy 31 (2006) 29152925 Table 2 The 15 scenarios used Scenario Name Assumptions for the future passenger car registrations in Greece Assumptions for the fuel consumption Gasoline Current GO GO GP GP Current Diesel Current DO DP DO DP Current 2921

New passenger car registrations 1 2 3 4 5 6 Greek-CFC Greek-GODO Greek-GODP Greek-GPDO Greek-GPDP Average-CFC As the current Greek ones (22 new PC registr./1000 inh./year) As the current Greek ones (22 new PC registr./1000 inh./year) As the current Greek ones (22 new PC registr./1000 inh./year) As the current Greek ones (22 new PC registr./1000 inh./year) As the current Greek ones (22 new PC registr./1000 inh./year) Average of the current Greek and European ones (28 new PC registr./ 1000 inh./year) Average of the current Greek and European ones (28 new PC registr./ 1000 inh./year) Average of the current Greek and European ones (28 new PC registr./ 1000 inh./year) Average of the current Greek and European ones (28 new PC registr./ 1000 inh./year) Average of the current Greek and European ones (28 new PC registr./ 1000 inh./year) As the current EU average (34 new PC registr./1000 inh./year) As the current EU average (34 new PC registr./1000 inh./year) As the current EU average (34 new PC registr./1000 inh./year) As the current EU average (34 new PC registr./1000 inh./year) As the current EU average (34 new PC registr./1000 inh./year)

Segments As the current Greek ones As the current Greek ones As the current Greek ones As the current Greek ones As the current Greek ones Average of current Greek and EU average Average of current Greek and EU average Average of current Greek and EU average Average of current Greek and EU average Average of current Greek and EU average As the current EU average As the current EU average As the current EU average As the current EU average As the current EU average

AverageGODO AverageGODP AverageGPDO Average-GPDP

GO

DO

GO

DP

GP

DO

10

GP

DP

11 12 13 14 15

EU-CFC EU-GODO EU-GODP EU-GPDO EU-GPDP

Current GO GO GP GP

Current DO DP DO DP

3. Results and discussion 3.1. CO2 change if the current diesel penetration remains at the current level The rst comparison is made in the case of current diesel penetration using the current and future FC (Fig. 3). The scenarios using the diesel optimistic and pessimistic (DO and DP) FC give quite similar results, because the current diesel penetration is very low, less than 1%. The scenarios using the gasoline and diesel optimistic FC give always slightly higher CO2 benet (or lower CO2 change) than those using the pessimistic one, because FC is lower in the rst case. The following comparisons are performed:

  

inuence of FC in the case of the current registrations (GREEK scenarios), inuence of the number of new PC registrations by maintaining the current FC (CFC scenarios), inuence of new PC registrations using the future FC (AVERAGE and EU scenarios).

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45

Change of CO2 emissions (%)

35
GREEK AVERAGE EU

25

15

-5

-15 CFC GODO GODP GPDO GPDP

Fig. 3. Relative change in total CO2 emitted from new PC, in the case of no introduction of diesel PC in Greece, for the different scenarios used.

Inuence of future FC using the current registrations (GREEK scenarios). Based on the current passenger car registrations in Greece and assuming they will remain unchanged in the future, a decrease in future CO2 emissions for all scenarios using future FC is observed. That decrease will be about 5.2% in the case of a small decrease in gasoline FC (the two GP scenarios), but will reach 10.5% in the case of a higher decrease (the two GO scenarios), indicating the high importance of future FC on CO2 emissions. Inuence of the number of new PC registrations by maintaining the current FC (CFC scenarios). Assuming that current FC remains the same in the future, there is a high increase of CO2 emissions with the number of new passenger car registrations (scenarios EU-CFC4AVERAGE-CFC4GREEK-CFC). If the value of 28 new PC registrations/1000 inhabitants is reached (AVERAGE-CFC) an increase of 20.7% in CO2 emissions occurs. If new passenger car registrations reach the current EU value (34 new PC/1000 inhabitants, EU-CFC scenario), this increase will be 45.2%. Inuence of new PC registrations using the future FC (AVERAGE and EU scenarios). It was assumed that future gasoline FC will decrease by 5% or 10%. If the future optimistic gasoline FC is taken into consideration, the CO2 decrease will be quite high (10.5%) in the case of the two scenarios using the current registrations (GREEK-GO). However, there will be an increase of CO2 emissions in the case of future registrations: 8% in the case of AVERAGE-GO scenarios and 30% in the case of higher new passenger car registrations (EU-GO scenarios). Those values are lower than the scenarios using the current fuel consumption (CFC). In the case of gasoline pessimistic fuel consumption (GP, 5%), the CO2 benets are lower than in the previous case. The CO2 changes for the GREEK-GP, AVERAGE-GP and EU-GP scenarios are 5.2%, 14.4% and 37.5%, respectively. These results indicate the great importance of future FC on the total CO2 emissions from new PC. 3.2. CO2 change as a function of diesel penetration Fig. 4 shows the change on CO2 emissions as a function of diesel penetration. It is clearly shown that, for each scenario, the CO2 benet is higher at increased diesel penetration. The three groups of scenarios form three quite parallel groups of lines. The CO2 emissions increase with the number of passenger car registrations (EU4AVERAGE4GREEK scenarios). It is interesting to observe that only the GREEK scenarios (current

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60
GR-CFC AV-CFC EU-CFC GR-GODO GR-GODP GR-GPDO GR-GPDP

AV-GODO AV-GODP AV-GPDO AV-GPDP

EU-GODO EU-GODP EU-GPDO EU-GPDP

40 Change of CO2 emissions (%)

20

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Percentage of Diesel PC penetration

Fig. 4. Change in the total CO2 emitted from new PC from the introduction of diesel PC in Greece, for the different scenarios used, as a function of the percentage of diesel PC penetration. GR GREEK, AV AVERAGE, EU EU.

Greek registrations) would lead to a decrease on CO2 emissions by increasing the diesel penetration. CO2 emissions generally increase in the case of increased new passenger car registrations (AVERAGE and EU scenarios). AVERAGE scenarios lead to a decrease of CO2 emissions for a very high diesel penetration: more than 80%. As can be seen in Fig. 4, this last observation is independent of FC assumption. The scenarios using the AVERAGE registrations are about 923 percentage units higher than the current registrations scenarios, while the EU registrations reach about 3146 percentage units higher. Two particular cases will be examined closer: a 30% and a 50% diesel penetration. A total of 30% and 50% diesel penetration: The total CO2 emitted from new PC decreases by 6.4% and 10.9%, respectively, in the case of current registrations (CURRENT-CFC). This indicates that an important CO2 benet can be immediately achieved in Greece by the increased percentage of diesel PC. However, the CO2 benet is cancelled in the case of increased future new passenger car registrations. The corresponding values for the AVERAGE-CFC scenario are an increase of 13.2% and 7.9%, while those of the EU-CFC scenario are even higher: an increase of 36.4% and 30.3%, respectively, for a 30% and 50% diesel penetration. It must be noted that the above results are better than those obtained in the case of a 0% supplementary diesel penetration, which present an increase of 20.7% and 45.2%, respectively, for these three scenarios. These results show that, if the Greek new passenger car registrations approach the EU average registrations, a quite high increase in total CO2 emissions will occur. A higher diesel penetration could help to moderate that increase. The CO2 emissions are always lower in the case of the future FC comparing to the current one (CFC). That difference is 2.512 percentage units in the case of the 30% diesel penetration and 110 percentage units in the case of 50%. Naturally, this benet is higher in the case of optimistic gasoline or diesel FC.

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0.0

-0.5 Change of CO2 emissions (%)

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0
GREEK AVERAGE EU

-2.5

-3.0 CFC GODO GODP GPDO GPDP

Fig. 5. Supplementary change in total CO2 emissions emitted from new PC, for a 10% supplementary penetration of diesel PC.

A total of 10% supplementary diesel penetration: In all cases studied, a supplementary diesel penetration of 10% gives the same change of the total CO2 emissions (Fig. 5). This benet increases with the number of passenger car registrations (EU4AVERAGE4GREEK) and can reach 3.1% in the case of scenario EU-CFC. CO2 change using the future FC: Looking at the different scenarios which consider future FC, the following ranking, from high to low benet in CO2 emissions with increasing diesel penetration, is observed: GPDO4GPDP4GODO4GODP (Fig. 4). The reasons are that the two rst cases consider a pessimistic gasoline FC, which increases the difference between gasoline and diesel CO2 emissions, while the last two scenarios consider an optimistic gasoline FC, which reduces this difference. The scenarios GPDO and GODO give respectively more CO2 benet than the GPDP and GODP, because they take into account an optimistic diesel FC, which increases the difference between gasoline and diesel CO2 emissions, contrary to the last two scenarios which decrease this difference. 4. Conclusions This work determined the CO2 benet from the increasing penetration of diesel PC in Greece. The CO2 benet is estimated using fteen scenarios taking into account the new passenger car registrations, their segment and the FC. Assuming that the future passenger car registrations will remain at the current level and the FC of future gasoline PC will decrease, the CO2 emissions from new passenger car will decrease by 510% in 2020. If the FC remains at the current levels, the total CO2 emissions from new PCs will increase with the number of new PCs registrations and can reach 45% or 20.7% if the number of new PCs registrations reaches the current EU values or the average value between EU and Greek current registrations (scenarios EU-CFC and AVERAGECFC). These increases are lower in the case of the optimistic future FC. A 30% or 50% diesel penetration will decrease the total CO2 emissions from new PCs by 6.4% and 10.9%, respectively, in the case of current registrations and current fuel consumption (scenario CURRENT-CFC). In the case of increased future new PCs registrations, they will increase by 13.2% and 7.9%, respectively in the case of the AVERAGE-CFC scenario and 36.4% and 30.3%, respectively, in the case of the EU-CFC scenario. These values are lower than those of the current diesel penetration. The optimistic future FC assumption gives lower values. A supplementary penetration of diesel PC of 10% gives a CO2 benet of 3.1% in the best case. The introduction of diesel PC will help to reduce the total CO2 emitted from new PCs. The future FC is the other key parameter for this control.

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