Research Survival Guide: A Handbook For Surviving Research

1
"#$#%&'( )*&+,+%- .*,/#

! #$%&'(() *(+ ,-+././%0 1232$+45

6/45(7$3 8+-3

"#+,$#/ 0 12+#34#& 5678
2

updaLed: 3 november 2013 (nlcholas krus)
9%4-# 2: ;2<=#<=$
!"#$ &$'#() *
+,)(-.-./ 0$$'1-.()"2 3
!"#$%&'($) +
,-.%$/0-$) +
42-./ 5$/2 )$ 6.)"'7'") 8()( 9
10223-4) 5
67$ 83&0-39 :.;3-'&72) 5
<-3=7'%39 >?32=9$) 5
@3&7$23&'%39 >?32=9$) A
B..&C.&'C; 4.0- 9.;D"3E$/ <-3=7) F
G==$C/'? G HI.- &7.E$ J'&7 K39%090E LLLM) N
G==$C/'? O) N
G==$C/'? K) PQ
:;$') :(#7<" ='-"> ?-); @..$)()-$.2 -. &$$).$)"2 AB
10223-4) PR
G//'&'.C39 S$&3'9E) PT
:(#7<" CD)".1"1 @.(<E2-2 A3
,-'(3&$ K-$/'& >?&$C/$/ GC394E'E P5
ConLenLs 13
LlLeraLure Survey Summary 13
Pow Lo CollecL uaLa on rlvaLe CredlL 20
Pow Lo do a rlvaLe CredlL/ MoneLary Analysls 26
CDF"< G'-FH2 *A
UE'C; &7$ !BB1>6 B0C%&'.C &. G0&.23&'%3994 U=/3&$ <-3=7E 'C >?%$9) TP
MeLhod 1: use CllSL1 wlLh a deflned name 31
MeLhod 2: use a daLabase, CllSL1, and deflned names ln Lxcel 2003 and ln earller verslons of Lxcel 33
UE$I09 V.&W$4E 'C >?%$9) T+
C18L comblnaLlon shorLcuL keys 34
luncLlon keys 38
CLher useful shorLcuL keys 40
I$? )$ 42" J$$/<" K"?2 3*
PDLC&-./0%&'.C +T
RD V.J &. UE$ <..;9$ 8$JE +T
CeLLlng Lo Coogle news webslLe 43
8ookmarks and keywords Lo Add and use 44
uslng CounLry Speclflc keywords 43
uslng Ceneral keywords 46
lllLerlng news Sources used When Searchlng 47
TDK.C%90E'.C +F

3

>#32 ?2&3%=

Fiom: Youi Name
To: Youi Boss
Re: The Subject
Bate: The Bate
Nemoianuum

)*33%&@A

It is always impoitant to piesent you finuings in a piofessional anu clean mannei. This "memo" foimat is
a goou example one such template.

Loiem ipsum uoloi sit amet, consectetui auipiscing elit. 0t in justo commouo, consectetui quam sit amet,
feugiat ante. 0t convallis mollis felis nec henuieiit. Seu elementum et nunc in sceleiisque. Pellentesque
habitant moibi tiistique senectus et netus et malesuaua fames ac tuipis egestas.

B)#'=,2< 7 C D#=%,-$EA

Aliquam accumsan eleifenu cuisus. Etiam souales enim mi, quis blanuit ligula mollis sit amet. In sagittis
tempoi toitoi, nec venenatis mauiis tempoi sollicituuin. Naecenas bibenuum aicu seu fiingilla ultiices.
Piaesent pietium nibh felis, vitae pietium justo vaiius eu. Pioin non mauiis quis uui mollis ullamcoipei.
Bonec oinaie eiat vel ligula euismou iutium. In in poittitoi justo, et lacinia puius.

B)#'=,2< 5 C D#=%,-$EA

Bonec malesuaua eget uui sit amet vaiius. Aenean nec viveiia oici. Integei auctoi, nibh ac souales
euismou, massa mi iaculis massa, ut facilisis enim sem et eios. Fusce iu lectus molestie, tempoi massa
suscipit, venenatis loiem. Bonec ultiices uui leo, eget sagittis uui consequat sit amet. In sceleiisque loiem
quam, ac mollis magna auctoi non. Piaesent eleifenu metus ante, iu egestas est auctoi aliquam.

;2<'-*$,2< F9(-+ $%$793/3:A

Nullam ac sapien nec massa uignissim eleifenu auctoi et velit. Nunc tinciuunt ante massa, at loboitis ante
tempus nec. Etiam congue nisl elit, in ultiices mi auipiscing eu. Buis vel tellus est. Nullam nec quam uui.
Seu bibenuum non nisl eget poita

"#$% &'()
*'+)
,#-'+.#/
4

G4=%,<,<H ;22&/,<%=#$

;'<24=/.2>
Bow to obtain an inuiviuual cooiuinates fiom uatabases anu othei Inteinet souices
?+(42&-+2>
1. A goou way to stait the seaich foi cooiuinates is a simple uoogle seaich foi |namej + |institutionj +
contact -many cooiuinates can be founu using this simple seaich stiing.
2. If that seaich stiing uoes not yielu anything, then the next step woulu be to check the leaueiship
libiaiy uatabase. It can be accesseu by seaiching "Leaueiship Libiaiy" on uoogle if on the Bopkins
netwoik oi going to libiaiy.jhu.euu anu biowsing foi uatabases. uo to the seaich bai on the uatabase,
anu seaich foi the name of the peison.
S. If the fiist two steps uo not yielu any infoimation, then it is necessaiy to puisue the seaich in a moie
taigeteu mannei.
0-'1)(.-2 #% 34./5 3'/526 People in acauemic positions usually uisplay on theii email auuiess on
theii peisonal page on the website of theii iespective institutional website. Even if the cooiuinates
aie not listeu on the page, theii iespective Cv's will incluue an email auuiess.
7)8#%+)%26 Nost laige meuia oiganizations have a stanuaiuizeu foimat foi email auuiesses.
o Financial Times: |fiist namej.|last namejft.com
o WS}: |fiist namej.|last namejwsj.com
! Sometimes it is |fiist namej.|last namejuowjones.com
uoogle the email auuiess you think it is to check the valiuity of which email
foimat you believe it to be.
o NY Times: |fiist namej.|last namejnytimes.com
! Can also be |lastnamejnytimes.com
uoogle the email auuiess you think it is to check the valiuity of which email
foimat you believe it to be.
o Economist: |fiistnamej|lastnamejeconomist.com
! Eg. jonathaniosenthaleconomist.com
o Bloombeig: All Bloombeig news aiticles list the email auuiesses of the iepoiteis at the enu
of the aiticle.
o Thomson Reuteis: Lists the email auuiess at the enu of aiticle
9+4)%26 0sing the piinciple that email auuiess aie baseu off the uomain name of the institution
that peison belongs to, we can use taigeteu seaich stiings on uoogle to obtain cooiuinates. This
technique is best explaineu thiough an example.
If I am seaiching foi the cooiuinates of P} Bi uiammaiino the CE0 of }Wu, I fiist locate the }Wu website
which is }Wu-IT.eu. Since the company website is }Wu-IT.eu, I now know that all email auuiesses foi
employees will be |Somethingjjwg-it.eu. Now when I seaich on uoogle Bigiammaiinojwg-it.eu, the
fiist iesult is his cooiuinates compaieu to the seaich stiing useu in step 1 which yielus no iesult.
5

I$,<H J2H$ =2 K<=#&L&#= D%=%

,-@@$+9>
Statistical woik in applieu economics is commonly uone using the logaiithmic tiansfoimation of the
uepenuent vaiiable - "logs," foi shoit. In shoit, logs allow you to take an exponential equation, anu
tiansfoim it into a lineai equation - allowing you to focus on the :%#;+4 %'+), iathei than the iaw value,
of the uepenuent vaiiable.
We use the logaiithmic tiansfoimation to uesciibe some vaiiable oi uata set giaphically. Insteau of
plotting some function y = f(t) , wheie f(t) is some exponential function of time, we woulu plot !"# ! !
! !!" (wheie c is the inteicept, a is the giowth iate, anu t is time). Because it is lineai, the log of the
oiiginal equation is easiei to unueistanu (i.e. follows a stiaight line insteau of an exponential cuive).
While it may seem to oveicomplicate matteis, the natuial logaiithmic tiansfoim is simply a way to look
at the pioblem fiom a uiffeient peispective, anu can theiefoie pioviue an alteinate intuition.
A52 6$=-+$7 B(0$+/=5@>
Piactically speaking, theie ieally only two types of logs useu - base 1u (which you piobably leaineu in
high school) anu base ) (wheie ) is a natuial constant, like pi). A base ) log is also known as the "natuial
log" anu it is the most commonly useu log.
This memoianuum will answei why the natuial log is wiuely useu. vaiiables that stait at some non-zeio
value anu giow at a constant peicentage iate aie quite common in applieu economics. Foi example, most
inteiest iates aie continuously compounueu, anu vaiiables such as uBP anu the money supply often giow
at a constant peicentage iate. Thus, oui unueistanuing of these vaiiables is essential.
C+$D5/4$7 EF$@D72>
If a vaiiable staits fiom the y-axis at a value of S, anu giows at a constant iate of S% (compounueu
continuously), its equation can be given as: @ M 0#
N60=
. Beie, 't' iepiesents time in yeais. This is what a
giaph of the vaiiable woulu look like:

This is cleaily an exponential giaph. Now imagine that you aie an obseivei who uiu not know anything
about the equation oi the uepenuent vaiiable in Chait 1. We can easily glean that it staits at S, anu in Su
yeais gets to aiounu 22but what can we say about the iate at which the vaiiable giows. We coulu
peifoim some complicateu iegiession on the uata to appioximate a giowth iate, but this is time
consuming anu iequiies a goou unueistanuing of non-lineai iegiession.
0
10
20
30
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
L
(
<
M
"

N"('2
0;(') AO P(? L(<M"2
6

This is wheie a logiathmic tiansfoimation can be quite valuable. A vaiiable that giows at a constant
peicentage iate - S% in this case - will have its log be lineai to time. Let's see what happens when we
take the the natuial log of both siues of the equation foi Chait 1. This logaiithmic tiansfoimation is
ieflecteu in Chait 2. 0sing eveiy uata point xi, we will just take ln(xi) anu plot it.

The line that iesults has ' <./)'% slope of .uS, ieflecting the uepenuent vaiiable's S% constant giowth
iate. 0sing Excel's lineai tienuline function, we can cleaily see the giaph staits at ln(S) = 1.SS94, anu
giows at a iate of S% pei unit of time (yeais). Note: the y-inteicept uoes not mattei in a logaiithmic
tiansfoimation. That is, it pioviues no new infoimation about the uata.

Neveitheless, while the logaiithmic (lineai) giaph uesciibes the same exact function as the non-
logaiithmic (exponential) giaph, it uoes so in a way that is easiei foi most obseiveis to unueistanu,
without losing any iigoiousness in the analysis of the uata (see appenuix A foi mathematical pioof).

In shoit, a lineai line in natuial logs will give you an exponential giaph (when not in logs) that giows at a
constant peicentage iate. The iate it giows at is the slope of the natuial log giaph. In this case, the
nominal value giows at a iate of S% pei yeai, eveiy yeai.

G$=52@$=/4$7 EF$@D72>
Consiuei calculating continuous compounu inteiest. If something giows at a continuous iate of S%
annually, once inteiest is gaineu, that inteiest is ieinvesteutheiefoie you aie collecting inteiest on the
oiiginal piincipal '/1 inteiest on inteiest. This is why the giowth is exponential. Fuitheimoie, we can
use the classic Pe
it
foimula, wheie P = beginning piincipal, i = iate = .uS, t = time, to get a bettei
unueistanuing. This equation is given as:

Pe
.uSt
= teiminal value

Taking the natuial log of this equation gives us :

ln(Pe
it
)
= ln(P)+ln(e
it
)
= ln(P) + it
= ln(P) + .uSt

y = 0.03x + 1.3394
0
0.3
1
1.3
2
2.3
3
3.3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
K
(
)
M
'
(
<

5
$
/

Q
<
.
R
D
S
T

N"('2
0;(') BO K()M'(< 5$/
7

This is the equation foi a stiaight line with a slope of .uS. Taking the natuial log of a vaiiable that giows at
a constant peicentage iate allows us to moie easily estimate what the constant giowth iate equals.

Note, that when analyzing a giaph, the '=)%':) iate of giowth will not be the same as the tienuline foi the
natuial log since the tienuline uoes /#+ give you an aveiage; it gives you a fit baseu on a iegiession. They
will be similai, but not the exact same.

H((=%(=/%0 9(-+ 7(0I'$32& C+$D5>

When you plot the natuial logaiithmic tiansfoim anu finu a lineai tienu, you shoulu incluue the following
footnote to youi chait:

Note: O PQ"KQRJS F>8T is plotteu as a natuial log in oiuei to visually poitiay the peicentage
giowth iate of O PQ"KQRJS F>8T ovei time - if O PQ"KQRJS F>8T giew at a constant peicentage
iate ovei time, it woulu have a natuial log that was a stiaight line ovei time.

As a siue note, it is useful to know that excel has a tienu option calleu "exponential tienu". This tienu line
is the exact same tienu foi the natuial log of the function, just tiansposeu back into nominal values. In
shoit, it allows you to put the natuial log tienu line on the giaph with nominal values.

You shoulu incluue the following footnote whenevei using the exponential tienu line (the lineai tienu
line of the logaiithmic tiansfoim):

Note: The tienu line useu is an exponential tienu line. An exponential tienu line has a constant
giowth iate ovei time in peicentage teims, in contiast to a lineai tienu line, which has constant
inciemental change ovei time in nominal teims. Foi example, this exponential tienu line giows at
OU pei *<,= F@#%&V 32<=(T, but a lineai tienu line woulu giow by O %32*<= pei *<,= F@#%&V
32<=(T.

8

!DD2%&/F ! J*(+ =5(32 K/=5 L$74-7-3 MMM:>

!DD2%&/F N>
EF$@D72> >? @#/)A ?$88<AB?+'+) =2C D'/5 @#/)A EF'/$'%A GHHI J *)-)(K)% GHLGM

KN
!"
!"
! !" !
!"
!"
!
! !
The numeiatoi 1AN1+ in the iight equation is the giowth iate of !. Biviuing
both siues by ! makes the expiession equal to some constant, !, the
peicentage iate of giowth.
KKN
!"
!
! ! !" Reaiiange
KKKN
!"
!
! ! !" Integiate
KPN
!"# ! ! ! !!" ! !" !"# !"#$%&#% !" !"#$%&'#!("! !"# !"#$%& !" ! !"#"$%& !"#$ !" !"#$%&'( !"#!$#$%
PN
!
!"# !
! !
!!!"

! can be isolateu fiom !"# ! thiough taking ) to the powei of both siues of
the pievious equation.
PKN
! ! !
!
!
!"

We finu that if a vaiiable giows at a constant peicentage iate, the log of that
vaiiable will be lineai to time wheie the coefficient, in this case 'O is the
peicentage giowth iate. Fuitheimoie, we have shown that the behavioi of A
ovei time is exponential.
9

Although a ielationship may be nonlineai, it makes sense to think of the giowth iate occuiiing at a
constant peicentage iate. Now let's consiuei the log of state anu bank money:

Aftei plotting the logaiithmic tiansfoimation of the uepenuent vaiiables, we now have moie
infoimation on changes in state anu bank money. Foi example, we see that the state money giowth iate
was ielatively flat fiom }anuaiy 2uuS-August 2uu8. This makes sense since the Feueial Reseive was not
actively injecting money into economy. In auuition, by looking at the slope of the tienu lines, we see that
since }anuaiy 2uuS, bank money has giown significantly slowei than state money (u.41% bank money
Nonth-ovei-Nonth tienu giowth veisus 1.SS% state money Nonth-ovei-Nonth tienu giowth). Also, we
can see that since aiounu }uly 2u1u, bank money giowth inteisecteu the tienu. Not coinciuentally, this is
also the month that Bouu-Fiank was enacteu. We can see fiom this giaph that bank money has been
consistently stagnant since Bouu-Fiank. Consiueiing that bank money accounts foi most of NS, this
paints a bleak shoit-teim pictuie of the 0S monetaiy situation. These insights woulu be uifficult to glean
fiom the non-logaiithmic giaph.
)2*&'#A 4++86NN;;;GC(-1'/.)<C)1$ND$2PQ-#/N(-./+A%)N<#:2CR*S

10

!DD2%&/F L>
EF$@D72> >? 7)'< T*R EF'/$'%A LUVW J *)-)(K)% GHLGM

Natuial logs aie also veiy usual when looking at tienu iates of giowth ovei longei peiious of time. In this
example, ieal uBP is plotteu ovei time in the giaph below.

Bowevei, it is haiu to view how fai below tienu we cuiiently aie (if we wanteu ieal uBP to giow at a
constant % iate). Thus, we can constiuct the natuial log veision below.

While this giaph illustiates how faibelow the cuiient uBP giowth iate is fiom the tienu giowth iate, it
uoes not uepict nominal values. Thus, it is useful to "map" this giaph back into nominal teims (see
below).
11


The giaphs above gives us the "exponential" tienu line anu ieal uBP (this can also be uone using the
exp.tienuline option in excel). This is the same giaph at the pievious one just insteau of being in "natuial
log teims" (peicentage giowth uiffeience) we aie back in "nominal teims" (billions of chaineu 0SB).
While this giaph may be easiei to unueistanu than the logaiithmic giaph, ieaueis might be confuseu on
why the tienuline is concave. What ieaueis will not iealize is that a function that giows at a constant
peicentage iate will not be lineai to time - it will be exponential anu concave. In oiuei to keep the
tienuline lineai to time, you will have to use the logaiithmic giaph.
In shoit, you can use this basic guiue when ueciuing on what tienu-line to use:

Would you expect your data to grow at a constant growth rate or by a constant amount every year? In other
words, should your data grow by X% every year or should your data grow by X units every year.
Do you want to keep your graph in nominal terms, or does it not
matter?
For example, when looking at the money supply, it is useful to
know the gross amount at any given point in time. Thus, you
would want to keep it in nominal terms. On the other hand, data
such as monthly inflation rates during periods of extreme
hyperinflation (as in the case of Zimbabwe) are difficult to grasp
in nominal terms, so it does not matter.
X% X units
Use a linear trend line in nominal
terms (do not use natural logs).
Yes
No
Convert your data to natural logs and
use a linear trend.
Use an exponential trend line in
nominal terms.
12

)(2&= )%3L-# R&,#: W,=( Q<<2=%=,2<$ ,< ?22=<2=#$

,-@@$+9>
L

Touay maiks the 6u
th
uay of Bulgaiia piotests. 0nfoitunately the maich to seasiue by piotestois
will have been in vain as NPs aie being iecalleu to the capital city to iesponu to the Piesiuent's Buuget
veto. Speakei of Pailiament Nihail Nikov has inuicateu that the National Assembly will inteiiupt its
iecess foi an emeigency Fiiuay sitting. Nikov also saiu that the Piesiuent's veto is aimeu at uestabilizing
the cuiient cabinet anu goveinment of the countiy.

Foimei Bulgaiian (uERB) Piime Ninistei Boyko Boiisov also ciiticizeu the buuget ievision. Be
feels, similai to the piesiuent, theie is not sufficient infoimation about how the new BuN 1 B woulu be
spent. Boiisov iemains auamant that eaily elections shoulu take place in Nay 2u14.

News outlet, Capital.bg, iepoits that the Bulgaiian National Bank has also stateu that an inciease
in goveinment spenuing will not acceleiate the giowth of the Bulgaiian economy enough to justify a
highei buuget ueficit anu fuithei uebts. The cential bankeis iepoiteuly aie aiguing that the auuitional
payments by the goveinment will geneiate income that will be spent mainly on the puichase of impoiteu
goous. Theiefoie, uomestic piouuction will not inciease anu employmentwages won't be stimulateu.
2

Capital.bg has also iepoiteu that impoits in Bulgaiia have been uecieasing steauily, ieflecting
shiunken consumption anu economic slow-uown. Impoits (incluuing costs) in the seconu quaitei
ueclineu 4.S% yeai on yeai. The fiist half of the yeai saw a 1% impoit uiop. Neanwhile, total expoits
uioppeu u.7% in }une.

Bulgaiia's population giowth iate keeps uecieasing. In 2u12 theie was a -S.S% population
giowth while the ueath iate iemains high.

Electiicity company CEZ Bistiibution Bulgaiia
S
has launcheu S2 investment piojects woith BuN
1.4 million in West Bulgaiia. The piojects aim to impiove powei supply in Sofia. A laige quantity of
money will be useu on the ieplacement of wiies in iegions of TiiauitsPanchaievo (Suu,uuu BuN) while
12u,uuu will be spent on iepaiiing uamageu wiies.

1
When your boss requesLs a brlef on a Loplc, Lhe obvlous key elemenLs wlll be a summary on Lhe mosL recenL news and lnformaLlon on Lhe sub[ecL.
l recommend uslng hLLp://news.google.com and searchlng Lhe speclflc Loplc.
2
ln Lhese brlefs, Lry Lo focus on connecLlons beLween one sLory and anoLher. 1he purpose of Lhese memos are Lo glve a vlvld plcLures of Lhe
currenL evenLs occurrlng and Lhe overall mood/sLaLe of affalrs. lL ls crlLlcal, however, Lo dlverslfy your news ouLleLs. More on Lhls ln Lhe llnks
secLlon.
3
Make sure Lo be speclflc, lf an arLlcle doesn'L lnclude a deLalled descrlpLlon of a sub[ecL do some exLended research. lor examples lf an arLlcle
clalms LhaL 'sclenLlsLs' reporLed someLhlng, flnd ouL whlch sclenLlsLs.
13

!&&/=/(%$7 O2=$/73>

http:www.sofiaecho.com2u1Su8122121144_impoit-statistics-show-economy-slowing
http:www.stanuaitnews.comenglishieaubnb_tax_cuts_insteau_of_incieaseu_state_expenuituie_wou
lu_stimulate_bg_economy-2S8.html
http:www.focus-fen.netinuex.php.iu=nS12641
http:sofiaglobe.com2u1Su8126uth-uay-of-anti-goveinment-piotests-in-bulgaiia
http:www.novinite.comview_news.php.iu=1S278S
http:www.novinite.comview_news.php.iu=1S2779
4

4
When plcklng Lhe news ouLleL's for whlch you Lake your news from, lL ls crlLlcal Lo dlverslfy. lf you sLlck Lo one speclflc source, such as novlnlLe ln
Lhe case of 8ulgarla, you wlll be llmlLed Lo one speclflc vlewpolnL, blas, and agenda. lL would be Lhe same as uslng lox news or Lhe PufflngLon osL
for all your news.
14

)%3L-# SX=#</#/ Q<%-@$,$

This section will provide you with a sample of an extended analysis on a given subject. While this particular
analysis is on the topic of private credit and its relationship to the money supply, this template can be extended
to any foim oi ieseaich.
The sample extenueu analysis is bioken uone into the following sections:
1) Liteiatuie Suivey Summaiy anu Bibliogiaphy S&&2&Y R22Z3%&Z <2= /#:,<#/N
2) Bow to Collect Bata on Piivate Cieuit S&&2&Y R22Z3%&Z <2= /#:,<#/N
S) Bow to uo a Piivate Cieuit Nonetaiy Analysis S&&2&Y R22Z3%&Z <2= /#:,<#/N

15

To: Prof. Steve H. Hanke
By: Nicholas Krus
Date: 26 August 2013
?+/.$=2 L+2&/= EF=2%&2& !%$793/3

;2<=#<=$
1) Liteiatuie Suivey Summaiy anu Bibliogiaphy S&&2&Y R22Z3%&Z <2= /#:,<#/N
2) Bow to Collect Bata on Piivate Cieuit S&&2&Y R22Z3%&Z <2= /#:,<#/N
S) Bow to uo a Piivate Cieuit Nonetaiy Analysis S&&2&Y R22Z3%&Z <2= /#:,<#/N
J,=#&%=*&# )*&+#@ )*33%&@
By the eaily 2u
th
centuiy, cieuit was still closely tieu to money, making the lattei a legitimate pioxy foi
the foimei in economic analysis. Aftei the 19Sus, the intiouuction of fiat money anu giowing piesence of
cential banks as Lenu-eis of Last iesoit gieatly encouiageu the expansion of cieuit. This stiuctuial
change ue facto bioke the tight link between money anu cieuit. In the meantime, cieuit plays almost no
iole in monetaiy policy. (Schulaiick & Tayloi, 2uu9). In the mouel useu by the Feu, even the iole of
money-giowth was phaseu out uuiing the gieat moueiation. (Foi uetails about the changing iole of
money in Feu's policy, see (Neyei, 2uu1, pp. 8-9)).
The uominating uoctiine befoie the financial ciisis can be summaiizeu as "New Keynesian (sometimes
calleu new consensus) macioeconomics" which consists of a set of equations embouying aggiegate
uemanu, Philips cuive, monetaiy-policy iule (a geneialization of Tayloi's iule), exchange iate, cuiient
account position anu nominal exchange iate. In such mouels, cieuit constiaints aie assumeu away, hence
theie is no place foi money, cieuit oi financial institutions. Bespite the uiscussion of the magnifying
effects of cieuit channel by Beinanke & ueitlei (199S) anu empiiical stuuies like Niei et al. (2uu6)
showing anomaly, the mainstieam view is that inteiest-iule is a auequate appioximation foi optimal
monetaiy policy (Wooufoiu, 2uuS).
In the wake of the 2uu8 ciisis, vaiious attempts have been maue to establish the impoitance of
moneycieuit in policy making. The iole of money in economic activity is stiesseu in wiitings like
uoouhait (2uu9), Conguon (2u11), Thoiton (2u12). uoouhait in paiticulai, aigues that the iate of giowth
of bank lenuing to the piivate sectoi is moie impoitant than bioau money aggiegate, because the
liquiuity constiaints oi the uepenuence of expenuituies on cuiient income aie, to a consiueiable uegiee,
ueciueu by the teims on which banks lenu to the piivate sectoi, especially small companies oi inuiviuual
consumeis. Yet no macio mouel that oiganically incoipoiates the piactices of banks has been pioposeu.
Cuiuia & Wooufoiu (2uu9) anu Wooufoiu (2uu9) attempt to impiove the new consensus mouel by
auuing in money supply as a vaiiable, but theii policy-iules exhibit veiy little impiovement compaieu
with the pievious inteiest-iate iules. Canzoneii et al (2uu8) compaie a New Keynesian mouel with an
enlaigeu veision allowing foi both N2 anu loanscieuit aggiegate, concluuing bioauei measuie of
liquiuity is a moie ieliable inuicatoi foi pieuicting inflation.
16

A huge empiiical liteiatuie has giown out of the iuea that the unpieceuenteu pie-ciisis size of cieuit was
a majoi contiibutoi foi what happeneu afteiwaius. Nost compaiative oi iegional stuuies confiimeu the
impoitance of cieuit, anu have uevelopeu statistical conclusions on its pieuictive powei foi financial
ciises. Some common metiics useu in these stuuies aie bank cieuit-to-uBP iatio anu total cieuit-to-uBP
iatio. Biehmann (2u1S) calculates that when its cieuit gap is gieatei than 1u% of uBP, a countiy is likely
to encountei a ciisis in the following thiee yeais. Two othei compaiative stuuies aie (Schulaiick &
Tayloi, 2uu9) anu (}oiu, Schulaiick, & Tayloi, 2u11), which concluue that financial ciises aie in geneial
moie costly than noimal ciisis, anu cieuit-intensive expansion tenu to be followeu by ueepei iecessions
anu slowei iecoveiies.
The authois of the empiiical stuuies seem to be testing a causal ielation between the cieuit giowth iate
anu financial ciisis without spelling out the exactly mechanism behinu the linkage. As aigueu by Saleino
(1994), the histoiical episoues aie cleai illustiations of the Austiian business cycle theoiy, howevei, in
oiuei to explain oi foiecast a businesscieuit cycle much moie infoimation than seiies of piivate cieuit is
necessaiy. Foi instance, the excessively low inteiest iate may be obvious in the case of 0S, but foi less
ieseaicheu countiies it can only be ueteimineu in a histoiical context, along with all the measuies taken
by the cential banks. Fuitheimoie, the key concept in the Austiian theoiy malinvestment is explicit
manifesteu by a sing piivate cieuit seiies. A categoiization pioposeu by Weinei (2u12) comes as useful
in this iegaiu. Be auvocates a naiiowei uefinition of cieuit as bank to piivate sectoi cieuit, anu fuithei to
uistinguish cieuit useu on consumption anu investment with that useu on puichase of existing assets.
The latei uistinction is possible by iesoiting to fixeu capital foimation uata, which aie available in FREB
foi 0S, 0K, China, Inuia, Canaua, Biazil, etc.
Anothei complication on the piivate cieuit uata is the ielative size of foieign cieuit, which is not incluueu
in INF anu BIS seiies, anu only paitly accounteu (cieuit fiom Euio countiies) foi in the ECB seiies. In
small open economies oi countiies in tiansition, the shaie of foieign cieuit tenus to be laige oi iapiuly
iising. Because of the 0S uollais iole as global ieseive cuiiency, uomestic banks only pioviue about Su%
of total cieuit to the piivate non-financial sectoi in 2u1S. Foi smallei countiies, the iole of foieign cieuit
is moie impoitant as it tenus to exaceibate shoitage of liquiuity when theie is a uomestic ciisis (Aiteta &
Bale, 2uu8).
X#(()/+6
In the cuiient context, the immeuiate effect of piivate cieuit is piobably moie ielevant than inflation oi
pieuiction of futuie ciisis. Foi that puipose, theie seems to be no univeisal methouology that can be
uiiectly applieu to the available uata sets. I think such analysis will have to be maue on a countiy-by
countiy basis, taking into consiueiation of the composition of cieuit, peicentage of cieuit useu in
puichase of existing cieuit, uistoitionaiy iegulations, anu ieal economic peifoimance. Foi example, since
2uu9 total cieuit in China has been giowing much fastei than bank cieuit, because of iapiu expansion of
alteinative financing, which consist of tiust funu, unueigiounu lenuing anu incieasing capital inflow.
vaiious explanations have been pioposeu to account foi the slowing giowth when cieuit is fast
expanuing.
17

In the case of Euio, the tiajectoiy of cieuit is moie in accoiu with the tiajectoiy of ieal uBP. In majoi
economies like Spain, Italy, ueiman, both ieal uBP anu piivate cieuit aie tuining upwaius (though both
still behinu tienu), while NS is still in uecline (absolutely). These aie goou illustiations foi the ueviation
between cieuit anu money in auvanceu economies, anu the bettei pieuictive powei of piivate cieuit.
Bowevei, in oiuei to bettei illustiate the coiielation, gaps calculateu fiom a simple exponentiallineai
tienu line aie not auequate.
In the longei teim, the pieuictive mouel anu its possible futuie piogiess uevelopeu in (}oiu, Schulaiick,
& Tayloi, 2u11) can be extenueu into a ieal-time inclusive pioject, upuateu monthly like the Euiopean
monetaiy aggiegate pioject, to monitoi the cieuit iisks in a wiue iange of countiies (The papei iestiicts
its scope to only 14 uevelopeu countiies, anu uses yeaily uata). 0f couise, the valiuity of theii mouel on
ueveloping countiies neeus to be checkeu against histoiy.
N/'7/(0+$D59
Aikman, B., Baluane, A., & Nelson, B. (2u1u). Cuibing the cieuit cycle.
Alessi, L., & Betken, C. (2u11). Quasi ieal time eaily waining inuicatois foi costly asset piice boombust cycles: A
iole foi global liquiuity. Q$%#8)'/ F#$%/'< #Y R#<.+.-'< Q-#/#(A GWEIM , S2u-SSS.
Aiestis, P. (2uu9). &); X#/2)/2$2 @'-%#)-#/#(.-26 0 X%.+.-'< 088%.'<C New Yoik: The Levy Economics Institue,
No.S64.
Aiestis, P., Choitaieas, u., & Tsoukalas, }. (2u1u). Noney anu Infoimation in a New Neoclassical Synthesis
Fiamewoik. 34) Q-#/#(.- F#$%/'< Z#<C LGH , 1u1-28.
Aiteta, C., & Bale, u. (2uu8). Soveieign uebt anu cieuit to the piivate sectoi. F#$%/'< #Y [/+)%/'+.#/'< Q-#/#(.-2 WV ,
SS-69.
Aspachs-Biacons, 0., uoouhait, C., Tsomocos, B., & Zicchino, L. (2uu7). Towaius a measuie of financial fiagility.
0//'<2 #Y S./'/-) I , S7-74.
Back, P., & Zumei, T. (2uuS). Bevelopments in Cieuit to the Piivate Sectoi in Cential anu Eastein Euiopean E0
Nembei States: Emeiging fiom Financial RepiessionA Compaiative 0veiview. S#-$2 , 8S-1u9.
Beinanke, B. S. (199S). Cieuit in the Nacioeconomy. \$'%+)%<A 7)=.);O S)1)%'< 7)2)%=) D'/5 #Y &); "#%5 , Su-7u.
Beinanke, B. S., & ueitlei, N. (199S). Insiue the Black Box: The Cieuit Channel of Nonetaiy Policy Tiansimission.
&DQ7 ]#%5./: R'8)% &#C ^LV_ .
Boiio, C., NcCauley, R., & Ncuuiie, P. (2u11). ulobal cieuit anu uomestic cieuit booms . D[? \$'%+)%<A 7)=.); , 4S-
S7.
Calza, A., Naniique, N., & Sousa, }. (2uu6). Cieuit in the euio aiea: An empiiical investgating using aggiegate uata.
34) \$'%+)%<A 7)=.); #Y Q-#/#(.- '/1 S./'/-) Z#<C V_ , 211-226.
Canzoneii, N., Cumby, R., Biba, B., & Lopez-Saliuo, B. (2uu8). Nonetaiy Aggiegates anu Liquiuity in a Neo-
Wicksellian Fiamewoik. F#$%/'< #Y @#/)AO X%)1.+ '/1 D'/5./: VH , 1667-98.
18

Conguon, T. (2u11). Pait Five: Bow Boes the Economy Woik. In @#/)A ./ 0 S%)) ?#-.)+A (pp. S2S-4u4). New Yoik:
Encountei Books.
Cottaielli, C., Bell' Aiiccia, u., & vlaukova-Bollai, I. (2uuS). Eaily biiu, late iiseis, anu sleeping beauties: Bank cieuit
giowth to the piivate sectoie in Cential anu Eastein Euiope anu inthe Balkans. F#$%/'< #Y D'/5./: ` S./'/-) GU ,
8S-1u4.
Cuiuia, v., & Wooufoiu, N. (2uu9). X%)1.+ S%.-+.#/2 '/1 98+.('< @#/)+'%A R#<.-AC BIS Woiking Papei No. 278.
Be Baas, R. T., & van Lelyvelu, I. P. (2uu4). Foieign bank penetiation anu piivate sectoi cieuit in Cential anu
Eastein Euiope. F#$%/'< #Y Q()%:./: @'%5)+ S./'/-)O IEGM , 12S- 1S1.
Biehmann, N. (2u1S). Total cieuit as an eaily waining inuicatoi foi systemic banking ciises. D[? \$'%+)%<A 7)=.);
VL .
Fontana, u. (2uu7). Why Noney Natteis: Wicksell, Keynes, anu the New Consensus view on Nonetaiy Policy.
F#$%/'< #Y R#2+ a)A/)2.'/ Q-#/#(.-2 ZCIH , 4S-6u.
Fiieuman, B. (2uuS). The LN Cuev: A Not-So-Fonu Faiewell. &DQ7 ]#%5./: R'8)% &#C LHLGI .
Fiieuman, N. (197u). A Theoietical Fiamewoik foi Nonetaiy Analysis. F#$%/'< #Y R#<.+.-'< Q-#/#(A Z#<C Wb , 19S-
2S8.
unos, C. (2u11). Rethinking Nonetaiy Policy with Refeience to Nonetaiy Ciicuit Theoiy. [/+)%/'+.#/'< F#$%/'< #Y
R#<.+.-'< Q-#/#(A =#<C VH , 98-1uS.
uoouhait, C. (2uu9). The continuing muuules of monetaiy theoiy: a steaufast iefusal to face facts. Q-#/#(.- W_ ,
821-Su.
uoouhait, C. (2uu9). Whatevei became of the monetaiy aggiegates. In @#/)+'%A R#<.-A S%'();#%52 Y#% Q()%:./:
@'%5)+2 (pp. S9-68). Bank of Englanu.
uiaziani, A. (2uuS). The theoiy of the monetaiy ciicuit. In A. uiaziani, 34) @#/)+'%A 34)#%A #Y R%#1$-+.#/ (pp. 1-
2u). New Yoik: Cambiiuge 0niveisity Piess.
Ball, S. (2uu1). X%)1.+ -4'//)< )YY)-+2 ./ +4) (#/)+'%A +%'/2(.22.#/C Bank of Englanu Quaiteily Bulletin.
}oiu, 0., Schulaiick, N., & Tayloi, A. (2u11). Financial Ciises, Cieuit Booms, anu Exteinal Imbalances: 14u Yeais of
Lessons. [@S Q-#/#(.- 7)=.); , S4u-78.
Keen, S. (2u1u). The Bynamics of the monetaiy ciicuit. In 34) 8#<.+.-'< )-#/#(A #Y (#/)+'%A -.%-$.+26 3%'1.+.#/ '/1
-4'/:) (pp. 161-187). Lonuon: Palgiave.
Kelly, R., NcQuinn, K., & Stuait, R. (2u11). Qc8<#%./: +4) 2+)'1Ad2+'+) %)<'+.#/24.8 K)+;))/ -%)1.+ '/1 T*R Y#% ' 2('<<
#8)/ )-#/#(Ad+4) -'2) #Y [%)<'/1C Reseaich Technical Papeis 1, Cential Bank of Iielanu.
Neyei, L. B. (2uu1). *#)2 @#/)A @'++)%C Feueial Reseive Bank of St. Louis.
Nisies, L. v. (198u). 34) +4)#%A #Y (#/)A '/1 -%)1.+C Lonuon.
Niei, E., & Zicchino, L. (2uu6). D'/5 ;)'5/)22O <#'/ 2$88<A '/1 (#/)+'%A 8#<.-AC Inteinational Nonetaiy Funu.
19

Paiguez, A., & Seccaieccia, N. (2uuu). The cieuit theoiy of money: the monetaiy ciicuit appioach. In ]4'+ .2
@#/)Ae (pp. 1u1-2S). New Yoik: Routleuge.
Reinhait, C. N., & Rogoff, K. S. (2u1u). Fiom Financial Ciash to Bebt Ciisis. &DQ7 ]#%5./: R'8)% &#C L^WU^ .
Rochon, L.-P. (2u12). Financialization anu the theoiy of the monetaiy ciicuit:fiscal anu monetaiy policies
ieconsiueieu. F#$%/'< #Y R#2+ a)A/)2.'/ Q-#/#(.-2 Z#<C I^ , 167-69.
Saleino, }. (2u11). A Refoimulation of Austiian Business Cycle Theoiy in Light of the Financial Ciisis. R%)2)/+'+.#/
'+ +4) 0$2+%.'/ ?-4#<'%2 X#/Y)%)/-)C New Yoik.
Saleino, }. (1994). Luuwig von Nises's monetaiy theoiy in light of mouein monetaiy thought. 34) 7)=.); #Y
0$2+%.'/ Q-#/#(.-2 bO &#C L .
Saigent, T., & Wallace, N. (197S). " Rational" Expectations, the 0ptimal Nonetaiy Instiument, anu the 0ptimal
Noney Supply Rule. 34) F#$%/'< #Y R#<.+.-'< Q-#/#(A , 241-S4.
Schulaiick, N., & Tayloi, A. (2uu9). X%)1.+ D##(2 T#/) D$2+6 @#/)+'%A R#<.-AO ,)=)%':) XA-<)2 '/1 S./'/-.'< X%.2)2O
LbWHJGHHbC NBER Woiking Papei No. 1SS12.
Weinei, R. A. (2u12). Towaius a new ieseaich piogiamme on 'banking anu the economy' Implications of the
Quantity Theoiy of Cieuit foi the pievention anu iesolution of banking anu uebt ciises. [/+)%/'+.#/'< 7)=.); #Y
S./'/-.'< 0/'<A2.2 .
Wooufoiu, N. (2uu9). Conveigence in Nacioeconomic: Elements of the New Synthesis. 0()%.-'/ Q-#/#(.- F#$%/'<6
@'-%#)-#/#(.-2O ZH<C L , 267-79.
Wooufoiu, N. (2uu8). Bow Impoitant Is Noney in the Conuuct of Nonetaiy Policy. F#$%/'< #Y @#/)AO X%)1.+ '/1
D'/5./: , 1S61-98.
Wooufoiu, N. (2uuS). The ietuin of monetaiy iules. In N. Wooufoiu, [/+)%)2+ '/1 R%.-)2 (pp. 1-S4). Piinceton:
Piinceton 0niveisity Piess.

20

[2W =2 ;2--#'= D%=% 2< \&,+%=# ;&#/,=

,-@@$+9>
This section staits with the uefinition anu significance of piivate cieuit, as a counteipait in
bioau money supply, anu then uiscusses how to finu anu choose piivate cieuit uata fiom
thiee souices incluuing the INF (Inteinational Nonetaiy Funu), the BIS (Bank of
Inteinational Settlement), anu the ECB (Euiopean Cential Bank).

?+/.$=2 L+2&/=>
As suggesteu by Nobel Lauieate Si. }ohn Bick in 19SS , the measuiement of money supply
can be ieuuceu to a balance sheet pioblem, by iegaiuing eveiy peison in the economy as a
tiny bank.
A closei examination of a balance sheet as such will ieveal that an impoitant counteipait of
the money supply is cieuit (cieuit is not synonymous to money, see Banke 2u1S). Cieuit to
piivate sectoi, i.e. piivate cieuit is paiticulaily impoitant foi the health of economy anu its
low-teim health. "Cieuit is an impoitant link in money tiansmission; it finances piouuction,
consumption, anu capital foimation, which in tuin affect economic activity." (Woilu Bank)
Theiefoie the figuie of piivate cieuit might a bettei inuicatoi foi economic conuitions than
bioau money supply, anu inueeu the two uo uiveige when new iegulations aie intiouuceu oi
goveinment incieaseu its inteivention (typically boiiowing to finance spenuing).
Foi instance, if piivate cieuit shiinks while public sectoi incieases by a laigei amount, money
supply anu piivate cieuit will move in opposite uiiections, as what is happening in Euio zone
now. In this case, the uescenuing tiajectoiy of piivate cieuit is moie consistent with
stagnating output.

21

In theoiy, the cential bank oi buieau of statistics of each countiy shoulu pioviue the
figuies of piivate cieuit (typically obtaineu fiom uepositoiy coipoiation suivey oi
monetaiy suivey), but unlike the moie wiuely useu metiics such as uBP, the seiies aie
nameu veiy uiffeiently in uiffeient countiies. Fuitheimoie, the canuiuates foi piivate
cieuit seiies may also have vaiying components (foieignuomestic, financialnon-
financial) acioss countiies. Foi consistency in analysis, it is bettei to use the uata fiom
the thiee souices mentioneu above, since they all have specifieu methouology posteu
online.
,2724=/(% (* ,(-+423
Thiee majoi uatabases pioviue seiies on piivate cieuit, though with uiffeient coveiage
anu methouology in compiling the seiies. Foi a list of countiies with uata availability,
see the accompanying spieausheet.
The majoi uiffeiences in uefinitions foi the thiee souices aie summaiizeu in the following
table.
Bata Souice Lenueis Boiioweis Foim of
cieuit
Seiies
fiequency

ECB
consoliuateu
balance sheet
NFIs (Nonetaiy
Financial Institutions)
excluuing ESCB
(Euiopean System of
Cential Banks)
NFIs + Non-NFIs
excluuing goveinment
(two sepaiate
components)

Loans
Loans anu
secuiities

Nonthly

BIS
Bomestic banks Non-Financial Piivate
Sectoi
(&#/dY./'/-.'<
-#%8#%'+.#/2 (both piivate-
owneu anu public-owneu),
4#$2)4#<12 anu /#/d 8%#Y.+
./2+.+$+.#/2 2)%=./:
4#$2)4#<12 as uefineu in
the System of National
Accounts 2uu8).

Cieuit
(<#'/2 anu
1)K+
2)-$%.+.)2)
Quaiteily
anu not
veiy up
to uate
(2u12.9)
All sectois
INF Bepositoiy
coipoiations
(uefinition)
Piivate Sectoi (}uuging
fiom compaiison between
BIS anu INF uata, it uoes
not incluue financial
institutions)
Claim Nonthly
Suggestion: In geneial, figuies fiom the thiee souices aie not compatible, anu no
iemeuy foi the uisciepancy has been founu yet. Theiefoie the selection of souices
will have to be a compiomise, uepenuing on the countiies of inteiest, anu length
of time coveieu.
The ECB has two-component monthly seiies that suit well foi shoit-teim oi ieal time
analysis of Euio zone countiies. Since the money supply of these countiies is also fiom
the ECB, it allows a uetaileu moneycieuit analysis. (Foi giaphical iepiesentation of
also iefei to the pievious spieausheet).
22


The BIS seiies aie quaiteily anu has appioximately one-yeai lag, so its usefulness is iestiicteu.
0n the othei hanu, it has the longest time iange; it piobably can be useu to suppoittest
geneialization of conclusion fiom the Euio countiies.
The INF has consistently uefineu uata sets with siue coveiage, but it uoesn't covei most majoi
economies in the woilu. So it will only be goou foi iegional stuuy (foi example Afiican, South
Ameiica, oi South East Asian countiies).
L(7724=/%0 O$=$
D[?
The BIS long seiies on piivate cieuit is ieauily available on bis.oigstatisticscieutopiiv.htm.
At the bottom of the page, "uata" links to an all-inclusive XLS file of all seiies. To finu the
uesiieu uata, go to the "Bocumentation" woiksheet. As can be seen fiom the giaph below, the
fiist five columns can be useu as filteis. Foi instance, to see the aujusteu cieuit fiom banks to
piivate sectoi in Austiia, click on the coiiesponuing block in the fiist column (:AT:B:P:A),
then the hypeilink will uiiect the piompt to the seiies in "Quaiteily Seiies" woiksheet.

"BIS Webstat" links to an inteiactive uatabase. It has built in filteis on countiy, lenuing
boiiowing sectoi, aujustment, anu time iange.
23


[@S
It takes a few steps to get uata fiom the INF eLibiaiy, anu some moie time foi the file to be
ieauy.
Fiistly login oi iegistei in case the file is too laige to be uisplayeu on the scieen. Then click on
"Concept" in the "Builu youi own Queiy" section.
Type "piivate" in Quick filtei, anu the only click on Claims on Piivate sectoi (Theie may be a
numbei o options. In that case, choose the one unuei Bepositoiy Coipoiations Suivey).
24


Then choose countiies anu time iange accoiuingly.
The options anu selectingueselecteu All anu Bianch will be veiy helpful when selecting laige
numbei of countiies:

12=#A The uefault fiquency of the uatabase is yeaily, but in fact monthly uata aie available foi
piivte cieuit seiies.

25

QXD
The piivate cieuit uata aie buiieu in its consoliuateu balance sheet. The easiest way to obtain
sepaiate seiies is to seaich in its uata waiehouse with "0utstanuing amounts at the enu of the
peiiou (stocks), NFIs excluuing ESCB iepoiting sectoi - Loans, Total matuiity, All cuiiencies
combineu - Euio aiea (changing composition) counteipait" as key woius, oi use the coues of
seiies uiiectly.
A geneial seaich gives both components of the piivate cieuit foi all Euio countiies. It suffices go
set the filtei as the following

Foi a specific seiies, iefei to this spieausheet foi its coue.
26

[2W =2 /2 % \&,+%=# ;&#/,=] >2<#=%&@ Q<%-@$,$
,-@@$+9
This memo will instiuct you on how to uo a "piivate cieuit analysis" anuoi a "monetaiy
analysis of statebank money".
In oiuei to complete this task, you will neeu the excel file "State anu Bank Noney - Piivate
Cieuit - Template.xls"
34.2 ()(# '<2# '22$()2 +4'+ A#$ 4'=) %)'1 '/1 $/1)%2+##1 +4) ()(#6 fS./1./: *'+'g
[+ .2 '<2# 4)<8Y$< +# %)=.); +4) f,#:2 @)(#g ./ #%1)% +# :'./ ' K)++)% $/1)%2+'/1./: #Y 4#;
<#:2 E'/1 )c8#/)/+.'< Y$/-+.#/2M ;#%5 '/1 ;4A +4)A '%) $2)1C
H/%&/%0 =52 O$=$

In oiuei to uo an analysis on state anu bank money anu piivate cieuit, you neeu to finu to
uata foi:
1. The bioauest measuie of the money supply foi a given countiy: N4 is piefeiieu.
If N4 is not available, you shoulu use NS, if NS is not available, use N2.
S

2. The monetaiy base (NB): In this case, we use the uefinition of the monetaiy base
which incluues K#+4 the cuiiency in ciiculation anu the ieseives at the cential
bank. Noimally, ieseive money anu Nu aie equivalent in uefinition to NB, but
you will want to uouble check that the uefinition is equivalent to the uefinition of
monetaiy base pioviueu above.
S. Piivate cieuit to the public sectoi: This statistic will be the haiuest to finu
because many cential banks uo not pioviue this statistic.

In oiuei to finu these statistics, the following steps shoulu be useu:
1. The fiist place to check foi this statistic is the monetaiy authoiity's website.
2. The seconu place to check is any statistical agency foi the given countiy. Note: we
check these two souices fiist, because they noimally pioviue moie upuateu figuies
than the IFS.
S. The last place to check is the Inteinational Financial Statistics 0nline Batabase (IFS)
publisheu by the INF. 0nfoitunately, the online uatabase uoes not incluue the line
numbeis oi uesciiptions foi cieuit to the piivate sectoi anu will sometimes give you
multiple values. Thus, it may be impoitant to use the IFS CB's available at the libiaiy
if any confusion aiises when using the IFS 0nline Batabase. Foi cieuit to the piivate
sectoi, you will want to use line numbeis 22u anu 42u. Bowevei, many countiies uo
not publish line numbei 42u. Thus, when making cioss-countiy compaiisons, I
usually only use line numbei 22u, but when analyzing a paiticulai countiy, I use line
numbei 42u when available in auuition to line numbei 22u.

3
lease remember Lo use Lhe lndex of noLlonal sLocks for each of Lhese meLrlcs when avallable as explalned ln Lhe
flndlng daLa memo. 1hls ls because you are looklng aL Lhe daLa over Llme and noL aL a glven perlod of Llme.
27

4. Bieaks:

Aftei you obtain the uata, please copy anu paste the uata into the thiee tabs: "Raw Bata -
NB", "Raw Bata - NS" anu "Raw Bata - PC". As the cell A1 in each tab ieminus you, please
be ceitain to copy anu paste the link to the souice in which you obtaineu the uata. This
allows futuie ieseaicheis to be able to ieplicate youi woik. To make the giaph anu
consoliuateu woiksheet moie ieauable, tiy to auu anothei column in the Raw Bata tabs in
which the figuies aie uenominateu in billions oi tiillions - the iule of thumbs is to keep
most of the numbeis in thiee uigits.

G(./%0 =52 O$=$ =( =52 L(%3(7/&$=2& A$'

1. The fiist step is copy anu paste youi iaw uata founu on the monetaiy base, the
money supply, anu piivate cieuit into the tab entitleu "Consoliuateu". This may
iequiie you to "copy" anu "paste special" as a tianspose if youi oiiginal uata is
hoiizontal insteau of veitical.

You will notice that all cells that iequiie action aie highlighteu in yellow. This is
simply foi youi convenience. Column R anu S aie highlighteu in ieu because othei
cells have foimulas that aie uepenuent on this iow staying the same (except to
extenu the numbei when auuing in new uates).

2. The seconu step is to complete the computation of the last few iows oi that of the
newly auueu uata. Then highlight a numbei of iows (fiom column F to S) above the
yellow iow, uiag lowei iight coinei of the selection box (see the pictuie below)
uown to the iow that has NS, NB, anu PC. Repeat the same step with column A, to
match the uate.

S. Inseit the countiy name into cell A21 anu inseit the money supply aggiegate (N2,
NS, oi N4) into cell B21. Also inseit the name of the cuiiency into cell F21 anu the
units foi the cuiiency (millions, billion, tiillions, etc.), 0ppeicase Pluial in B21 anu
28

loweicase singulai in I21. Last, you will want to inseit the link to the souice in cell
B2 anu the name of the souice(s) (foi the giaph) into }21.

4. Bouble check that all of the uata in column B thiough }, iows 8-11 aie filleu in. (I
have useu the 0FFSET anu C00NTA functions in excel to have these cells
automatically upuate.)
6

G$)/%0 =52 C+$D53

Because of the way the giaphs aie set up, you shoulun't have to uo anything to upuate the
giaphs. Theie aie only some mouification you neeu to uo
1. In columns L thiough Q, iow 26 (tab "Consoliuateu") you must ie-entei the values
foi the lines in the "BN SN Chait" (see below).

In shoit, you want to have the lines at inteivals that aie equivalent to the inteivals
on the y-axis of the "BN SN chait" (see below).

6
lease noLe LhaL rows 13-18 are opLlonal and lnsLrucLlons are provlded ln Lhe secLlon AddlLlonal noLes".
29


2. You must ieview the giaphs to see if the legenus oi text boxes within the giaphs
neeu to be ie-aiiangeu. Sometimes, the legenu anu text boxes will be on top of uata
points anu you will have to place them on the chait aiea so that they uon't block any
of the uata points.

In oiuei to expoit the giaphs, simply click on the white space aiounu the giaph, anu then
CRTL-C anu CRTL-v into a woiu uocument. If you want to keep the foimat as it is, choose
paste as pictuie (Alt + B + v + 0).

!&&/=/(%$7 6(=23

Sometimes, if theie is a significant change in the money supply oi in piivate cieuit, Piof.
Banke will ask you to finu the tienu iate of giowth (foi the exponential tienu line) befoie
anu aftei that point.
7
In oiuei to accomplish this, you will have to inseit the last uate befoie

7
These points where the growth rate changes significantly are normally called structural breaks. And while we
would want to test for structural break in the series (chow test, etc.), there are no easy formulas to use in excel. Thus,
we simply have to use a visual test to see if there are any turning points in the data in which the data follows a
different growth rate fundamentally then other periods.

30

the change oi bieak into column C iow 1S-18 (uepenuing on which seiies you aie looking
at).

Column B will uisplay the value foi the tienu iate of giowth in the fiist peiiou anu column
K will uisplay the value foi the tienu iate of giowth in the seconu peiiou.

By uefault, the bieak point is set to be Sept-2uu8, in oiuei to sepaiate pie anu aftei
ciisis tienus.

31

SX'#- 9&,'Z$

P3/%0 =52 ;HH,EA H-%4=/(% =( !-=(@$=/4$779 PD&$=2 C+$D53 /% EF427>
b

This section incluues two methous foi using uefineu names to automatically upuate the chait iange.

>#=(2/ 7A I$# G??)S9 W,=( % /#:,<#/ <%3#
To use this methou, follow these steps, as appiopiiate foi the veision of Excel that you aie iunning.
>,'&2$2:= G::,'# SX'#- 566^V 5676 %</ 5678
1. In a new woiksheet, type the following uata:
A1: Nonth B1: Sales
A2: }an B2: 1u
AS: Feb BS: 2u
A4: Nai B4: Su

2. 0n the ?2&3*-%$ tab, click D#:,<# 1%3# in the D#:,<#/ 1%3#$ gioup.
S. In the 1%3# box, type D%=#.
4. In the "#:#&$ =2 box, type MG??)S9F_Q_5V6V6V;GI19QF_QA_QTC7T, anu then click G`.
S. 0n the ?2&3*-%$ tab, click D#:,<# 1%3# in the D#:,<#/ 1%3#$ gioup.
6. In the 1%3# box, type )%-#$.
7. In the "#:#&$ =2 box, type MG??)S9F_R_5V6V6V;GI19QF_RA_RTC7T, anu then click G`.
8. Cleai cell B2, anu then type the following foimula:
M"Q1DFTa6b76
12=# This foimula uses the volatile RANB function. The foimula automatically upuates the 0FFSET
foimula that is useu in the uefineu name "Sales" when you entei new uata into column B. The value 1u,
which is useu in this foimula, is the oiiginal value of cell B2.
9. Select cells A1:B4.
1u. 0n the K<$#&= tab, click a chait, anu then click a chait type.
11. Click the D#$,H< tab, click the )#-#'= D%=% in the D%=% gioup.
12. 0nuei J#H#</ S<=&,#$ F)#&,#$T, click S/,=.
1S. In the )#&,#$ +%-*#$ box, type M)(##=7Y)%-#$, anu then click G`.
14. 0nuei [2&,c2<=%- F;%=#H2&@T QX,$ J%4#-$, click S/,=.
1S. In the QX,$ -%4#- &%<H# box, type M)(##=7YD%=#, anu then click G`.
>,'&2$2:= G::,'# SX'#- 5668 %</ #%&-,#& +#&$,2<$ 2: SX'#-
A1: Nonth B1: Sales
A2: }an B2: 1u
AS: Feb BS: 2u
A4: Nai B4: Su

2. 0n the K<$#&= menu, point to 1%3#, anu then click D#:,<#.

8
hLLp://supporL.mlcrosofL.com/kb/183446
32

S. In the 1%3#$ ,< W2&Z422Z box, type D%=#.
4. In the "#:#&$ =2 box, type:
MG??)S9F_Q_5V6V6V;GI19QF_QA_QTC7T
S. Click Q//.
6. In the 1%3#$ ,< W2&Z422Z box, type )%-#$.
7. In the "#:#&$ =2 box, type the following text:
MG??)S9F_R_5V6V6V;GI19F_R_5A_R_566TC7T
8. Click Q//, anu then click G`.
9. Cleai cell B2, anu then type the following foimula:
M"Q1DFTa6b76
12=# This foimula uses the volatile RANB function. The foimula automatically upuates the 0FFSET
foimula that is useu in the uefineu name "Sales" when you entei new uata into column B. The value 1u,
which is useu in this foimula, is the oiiginal value of cell B2.
1u. Select $A$1:$B$4.
11. Cieate the chait, anu then auu the uefineu names in the chait. To uo this, follow these steps, as
appiopiiate foi the veision of Excel that you aie iunning.
>,'&2$2:= SX'#- d^ =(&2*H( SX'#- 5668
a. 0n the K<$#&= menu, click ;(%&= to stait the Chait Wizaiu.
b. Click a chait type, anu then click 1#X=.
c. Click the )#&,#$ tab. In the )#&,#$ list, click )%-#$.
u. In the ;%=#H2&@ FOT %X,$ -%4#-$ box, ieplace the cell iefeience with the uefineu name Bate.

Foi example, the foimula might be similai to the following:
M)(##=7YD%=#
e. In the P%-*#$ box, ieplace the cell iefeience with the uefineu name Sales.

M)(##=7Y)%-#$
f. Click 1#X=.
g. Nake any changes you want in step S of the Chait Wizaiu anu click 1#X=.
h. Specify the chait location anu click ?,<,$(.
>,'&2$2:= SX'#- 0N6 2& >,'&2$2:= SX'#- ^N6
i. 0n the K<$#&= menu, point to ;(%&=, anu click Q$ 1#W )(##= to stait the Chait Wizaiu.
j. Click 1#X=.
k. Click a chait type, anu then click 1#X=.
l. Click a chait subtype, anu then click 1#X=.
m. Click ;2-*3<$ :2& D%=% )#&,#$ K< anu type 7 foi I$# ?,&$= 7 ;2-*3<$ :2& ;%=#H2&@ FXT QX,$
J%4#-$. Click 1#X=.
n. Click the titles that you want to uisplay anu click ?,<,$(.

The chait appeais on a new chait.
o. Select the uata seiies. 0n the ?2&3%= menu, click )#-#'= D%=% )#&,#$.
p. Click the O P%-*#$ tab. In the O P%-*#$ box, ieplace the cell iefeience with the uefineu name
Bate.

M)(##=7YD%=#
q. Click the 1%3# Q</ P%-*#$ tab. In the e P%-*#$ box, ieplace the cell iefeience with the
uefineu name Sales.

33

M)(##=7Y)%-#$
i. Click G`.
>#=(2/ 5A I$# % /%=%4%$#V G??)S9V %</ /#:,<#/ <%3#$ ,< SX'#- 5668 %</ ,< #%&-,#&
+#&$,2<$ 2: SX'#-
You can also uefine youi uata as a uatabase anu cieate uefineu names foi each chait uata seiies. To use this
methou, follow these steps:
A1: Nonth B1: Sales
A2: }an B2: 1u
AS: Feb BS: 2u
A4: Nai B4: Su

2. Select the iange A1:B4, anu then click )#= D%=%4%$# on the D%=% menu.
S. 0n the ?2&3*-% menu, click D#:,<# 1%3#.
4. In the 1%3# box, type D%=#.
S. In the "#:#&$ =2 box, type:
MG??)S9FD%=%4%$#V7V6V"Gf)FD%=%4%$#TC7V7T
6. Click Q//.
7. In the 1%3# box, type )%-#$.
8. In the "#:#&$ =2 box, type:
MG??)S9FD%=%4%$#V7V7V"Gf)FD%=%4%$#TC7V7T
9. Click Q//, anu then click G`.
1u. Select $A$1:$B$4
11. Repeat step 1u fiom methou 1 to cieate the chait anu auu the uefineu names to the chait.
As long as the uata that you want to appeai in youi chait is uefineu as a uatabase, the chait is upuateu
automatically as you auu new uata.

12=# If you aie cieating a seiies chait that plots eveiy value in an aujacent block of cells in single column, anu
the block of cells staits with the fiist iow, you can use eithei of the following foimulas in the "#:#&$ =2 box foi
the uefineu name:
MK1DK"S;9Fg)(##=7Y_%_7A_%gh;GI19F)(##=7Y_QA_QTT
M)(##=7Y_Q_7AG??)S9F)(##=7Y_Q_7V;GI19F)(##=7Y_QA_QTV6T
To use a block of cells that stait with a cell on a iow othei than the fiist iow, iefeience that iow in the fiist
cell iefeience anu auu the staiting iow numbei to the count to finu the last iow numbei. To plot aujacent
nonnumeiic entiies (foi example, labels), use C00NTA insteau of C00NT.

34

P32*-7 #(=)293 /% EF427>
U

If you can't finu a hotkey in the list below, you can use the "alt" key followeu
by the coiiesponuing letteis that aie uisplayeu.

;9"J '234,<%=,2< $(2&='*= Z#@$
`Se DS);"K\9KG1
CTRL+Pg0p Switches between woiksheet tabs, fiom left-to-iight.
CTRL+PgBn Switches between woiksheet tabs, fiom iight-to-left.
CTRL+SBIFT+( 0nhiues any hiuuen iows within the selection.
CTRL+SBIFT+) 0nhiues any hiuuen columns within the selection.
CTRL+SBIFT+& Applies the outline boiuei to the selecteu cells.
CTRL+SBIFT_ Removes the outline boiuei fiom the selecteu cells.
CTRL+SBIFT+~ Applies the ueneial numbei foimat.
CTRL+SBIFT+$ Applies the Cuiiency foimat with two uecimal places (negative
numbeis in paientheses).
CTRL+SBIFT+% Applies the Peicentage foimat with no uecimal places.
CTRL+SBIFT+^ Applies the Exponential numbei foimat with two uecimal places.
CTRL+SBIFT+ Applies the Bate foimat with the uay, month, anu yeai.
CTRL+SBIFT+ Applies the Time foimat with the houi anu minute, anu AN oi PN.
CTRL+SBIFT+ Applies the Numbei foimat with two uecimal places, thousanus
sepaiatoi, anu minus sign (-) foi negative values.

9
hLLp://offlce.mlcrosofL.com/en-us/excel-help/excel-shorLcuL-and-funcLlon-keys-P010073848.aspx
35

CTRL+SBIFT+
Selects the cuiient iegion aiounu the active cell (the uata aiea
encloseu by blank iows anu blank columns).
In a PivotTable, it selects the entiie PivotTable iepoit.
CTRL+SBIFT+: Enteis the cuiient time.
CTRL+SBIFT+" Copies the value fiom the cell above the active cell into the cell oi the
Foimula Bai.
CTRL+SBIFT+Plus
(+)
Bisplays the K<$#&= uialog box to inseit blank cells.
CTRL+Ninus (-) Bisplays the D#-#=# uialog box to uelete the selecteu cells.
CTRL+; Enteis the cuiient uate.
CTRL+ Alteinates between uisplaying cell values anu uisplaying foimulas in
the woiksheet.
CTRL+' Copies a foimula fiom the cell above the active cell into the cell oi the
Foimula Bai.
CTRL+1 Bisplays the ?2&3%= ;#--$ uialog box.
CTRL+2 Applies oi iemoves bolu foimatting.
CTRL+S Applies oi iemoves italic foimatting.
CTRL+4 Applies oi iemoves unueilining.
CTRL+S Applies oi iemoves stiikethiough.
CTRL+6 Alteinates between hiuing objects, uisplaying objects, anu uisplaying
placeholueis foi objects.

CTRL+8 Bisplays oi hiues the outline symbols.
CTRL+9 Biues the selecteu iows.
36

CTRL+u Biues the selecteu columns.
CTRL+A
Selects the entiie woiksheet.
If the woiksheet contains uata, CTRL+A selects the cuiient iegion.
Piessing CTRL+A a seconu time selects the cuiient iegion anu its
summaiy iows. Piessing CTRL+A a thiiu time selects the entiie
woiksheet.
When the inseition point is to the iight of a function name in a
foimula, uisplays the?*<'=,2< Q&H*3#<=$ uialog box.
CTRL+SBIFT+A inseits the aigument names anu paientheses when
the inseition point is to the iight of a function name in a foimula.
CTRL+B Applies oi iemoves bolu foimatting.
CTRL+C
Copies the selecteu cells.
CTRL+C followeu by anothei CTRL+C uisplays the Clipboaiu.
CTRL+B 0ses the ?,-- D2W< commanu to copy the contents anu foimat of the
topmost cell of a selecteu iange into the cells below.
CTRL+F
Bisplays the ?,</ %</ "#L-%'# uialog box, with the ?,</ tab selecteu.
SBIFT+FS also uisplays this tab, while SBIFT+F4 iepeats the
last ?,</ action.
CTRL+SBIFT+F opens the ?2&3%= ;#--$ uialog box with the ?2<= tab
selecteu.
CTRL+u
Bisplays the .2 92 uialog box.
FS also uisplays this uialog box.
CTRL+B Bisplays the ?,</ %</ "#L-%'# uialog box, with the "#L-%'# tab
selecteu.
CTRL+I Applies oi iemoves italic foimatting.
CTRL+K Bisplays the K<$#&= [@L#&-,<Z uialog box foi new hypeilinks oi
the S/,= [@L#&-,<Z uialog box foi selecteu existing hypeilinks.
CTRL+N Cieates a new, blank woikbook.
CTRL+0
Bisplays the GL#< uialog box to open oi finu a file.
CTRL+SBIFT+0 selects all cells that contain comments.
CTRL+P
Bisplays the \&,<= uialog box.
37

CTRL+SBIFT+P opens the ?2&3%= ;#--$ uialog box with the ?2<= tab
selecteu.
CTRL+R 0ses the ?,-- ",H(= commanu to copy the contents anu foimat of the
leftmost cell of a selecteu iange into the cells to the iight.
CTRL+S Saves the active file with its cuiient file name, location, anu file
foimat.
CTRL+T Bisplays the ;&#%=# 9%4-# uialog box.
CTRL+0
Applies oi iemoves unueilining.
CTRL+SBIFT+0 switches between expanuing anu collapsing of the
foimula bai.
CTRL+v
Inseits the contents of the Clipboaiu at the inseition point anu
ieplaces any selection. Available only aftei you have cut oi copieu an
object, text, oi cell contents.
CTRL+ALT+v uisplays the \%$=# )L#',%- uialog box. Available only
aftei you have cut oi copieu an object, text, oi cell contents on a
woiksheet oi in anothei piogiam.
CTRL+W Closes the selecteu woikbook winuow.
CTRL+X Cuts the selecteu cells.
CTRL+Y Repeats the last commanu oi action, if possible.
CTRL+Z
0ses the I</2 commanu to ieveise the last commanu oi to uelete the
last entiy that you typeu.
CTRL+SBIFT+Z uses the I</2 oi "#/2 commanu to ieveise oi
iestoie the last automatic coiiection when AutoCoiiect Smait Tags
aie uisplayeu.

38

?*<'=,2< Z#@$
`Se DS);"K\9KG1
F1
Bisplays the >,'&2$2:= G::,'# SX'#- [#-L task pane.
CTRL+F1 uisplays oi hiues the Ribbon, a component of the Niciosoft 0ffice Fluent
usei inteiface.
ALT+F1 cieates a chait of the uata in the cuiient iange.
ALT+SBIFT+F1 inseits a new woiksheet.
F2
Euits the active cell anu positions the inseition point at the enu of the cell contents. It
also moves the inseition point into the Foimula Bai when euiting in a cell is tuineu
off.
SBIFT+F2 auus oi euits a cell comment.
CTRL+F2 uisplays the Piint Pieview winuow.
FS
Bisplays the \%$=# 1%3# uialog box.
SBIFT+FS uisplays the K<$#&= ?*<'=,2< uialog box.
F4
Repeats the last commanu oi action, if possible.
When a cell iefeience oi iange is selecteu in a foimula, F4 cycles thiough the vaiious
combinations of absolute anu ielative iefeiences.
CTRL+F4 closes the selecteu woikbook winuow.
FS
Bisplays the .2 92 uialog box.
CTRL+FS iestoies the winuow size of the selecteu woikbook winuow.
F6
Switches between the woiksheet, Ribbon, task pane, anu Zoom contiols. In a
woiksheet that has been split (P,#W menu, >%<%H# 9(,$ f,</2W, ?&##c#
\%<#$, )L-,= f,</2W commanu), F6 incluues the split panes when switching
between panes anu the Ribbon aiea.
SBIFT+F6 switches between the woiksheet, Zoom contiols, task pane, anu Ribbon.
CTRL+F6 switches to the next woikbook winuow when moie than one woikbook
winuow is open.
F7
Bisplays the )L#--,<H uialog box to check spelling in the active woiksheet oi selecteu
iange.
CTRL+F7 peifoims the >2+# commanu on the woikbook winuow when it is not
maximizeu. 0se the aiiow keys to move the winuow, anu when finisheu piess
ENTER, oi ESC to cancel.
F8
Tuins extenu moue on oi off. In extenu moue, SX=#</#/ )#-#'=,2< appeais in the
status line, anu the aiiow keys extenu the selection.
SBIFT+F8 enables you to auu a nonaujacent cell oi iange to a selection of cells by
using the aiiow keys.
CTRL+F8 peifoims the ),c# commanu (on the ;2<=&2- menu foi the woikbook
39

winuow) when a woikbook is not maximizeu.
ALT+F8 uisplays the >%'&2 uialog box to cieate, iun, euit, oi uelete a macio.
F9
Calculates all woiksheets in all open woikbooks.
SBIFT+F9 calculates the active woiksheet.
CTRL+ALT+F9 calculates all woiksheets in all open woikbooks, iegaiuless of
whethei they have changeu since the last calculation.
CTRL+ALT+SBIFT+F9 iechecks uepenuent foimulas, anu then calculates all cells in
all open woikbooks, incluuing cells not maikeu as neeuing to be calculateu.
CTRL+F9 minimizes a woikbook winuow to an icon.
F1u
Tuins key tips on oi off.
SBIFT+F1u uisplays the shoitcut menu foi a selecteu item.
ALT+SBIFT+F1u uisplays the menu oi message foi a smait tag. If moie than one
smait tag is piesent, it switches to the next smait tag anu uisplays its menu oi
message.
CTRL+F1u maximizes oi iestoies the selecteu woikbook winuow.
F11
Cieates a chait of the uata in the cuiient iange.
SBIFT+F11 inseits a new woiksheet.
ALT+F11 opens the Niciosoft visual Basic Euitoi, in which you can cieate a macio by
using visual Basic foi Applications (vBA).
F12 Bisplays the )%+# Q$ uialog box.

40

G=(#& *$#:*- $(2&='*= Z#@$
`Se DS);"K\9KG1
ARR0W
KEYS
Nove one cell up, uown, left, oi iight in a woiksheet.
CTRL+ARR0W KEY moves to the euge of the cuiient uata iegion in a
woiksheet.
SBIFT+ARR0W KEY extenus the selection of cells by one cell.
CTRL+SBIFT+ARR0W KEY extenus the selection of cells to the last
nonblank cell in the same column oi iow as the active cell, oi if the next cell
is blank, extenus the selection to the next nonblank cell.
LEFT ARR0W oi RIuBT ARR0W selects the tab to the left oi iight when the
Ribbon is selecteu. When a submenu is open oi selecteu, these aiiow keys
switch between the main menu anu the submenu. When a Ribbon tab is
selecteu, these keys navigate the tab buttons.
B0WN ARR0W oi 0P ARR0W selects the next oi pievious commanu when a
menu oi submenu is open. When a Ribbon tab is selecteu, these keys
navigate up oi uown the tab gioup.
In a uialog box, aiiow keys move between options in an open uiop-uown
list, oi between options in a gioup of options.
B0WN ARR0W oi ALT+B0WN ARR0W opens a selecteu uiop-uown list.
BACKSPACE
Beletes one chaiactei to the left in the Foimula Bai.
Also cleais the content of the active cell.
In cell euiting moue, it ueletes the chaiactei to the left of the inseition point.
BELETE
Removes the cell contents (uata anu foimulas) fiom selecteu cells without
affecting cell foimats oi comments.
In cell euiting moue, it ueletes the chaiactei to the iight of the inseition
point.
ENB
Noves to the cell in the lowei-iight coinei of the winuow when SCR0LL
L0CK is tuineu on.
Also selects the last commanu on the menu when a menu oi submenu is
visible.
CTRL+ENB moves to the last cell on a woiksheet, in the lowest useu iow of
the iightmost useu column. If the cuisoi is in the foimula bai, CTRL+ENB
moves the cuisoi to the enu of the text.
CTRL+SBIFT+ENB extenus the selection of cells to the last useu cell on the
woiksheet (lowei-iight coinei). If the cuisoi is in the foimula bai,
CTRL+SBIFT+ENB selects all text in the foimula bai fiom the cuisoi
position to the enuthis uoes not affect the height of the foimula bai.
ENTER
Completes a cell entiy fiom the cell oi the Foimula Bai, anu selects the cell
41

below (by uefault).
In a uata foim, it moves to the fiist fielu in the next iecoiu.
0pens a selecteu menu (piess F1u to activate the menu bai) oi peifoims the
action foi a selecteu commanu.
In a uialog box, it peifoims the action foi the uefault commanu button in the
uialog box (the button with the bolu outline, often the G` button).
ALT+ENTER staits a new line in the same cell.
CTRL+ENTER fills the selecteu cell iange with the cuiient entiy.
SBIFT+ENTER completes a cell entiy anu selects the cell above.
ESC
Cancels an entiy in the cell oi Foimula Bai.
Closes an open menu oi submenu, uialog box, oi message winuow.
It also closes full scieen moue when this moue has been applieu, anu
ietuins to noimal scieen moue to uisplay the Ribbon anu status bai again.
B0NE
Noves to the beginning of a iow in a woiksheet.
Noves to the cell in the uppei-left coinei of the winuow when SCR0LL L0CK
is tuineu on.
Selects the fiist commanu on the menu when a menu oi submenu is visible.
CTRL+B0NE moves to the beginning of a woiksheet.
CTRL+SBIFT+B0NE extenus the selection of cells to the beginning of the
woiksheet.
PAuE
B0WN
Noves one scieen uown in a woiksheet.
ALT+PAuE B0WN moves one scieen to the iight in a woiksheet.
CTRL+PAuE B0WN moves to the next sheet in a woikbook.
CTRL+SBIFT+PAuE B0WN selects the cuiient anu next sheet in a
woikbook.
PAuE 0P
Noves one scieen up in a woiksheet.
ALT+PAuE 0P moves one scieen to the left in a woiksheet.
CTRL+PAuE 0P moves to the pievious sheet in a woikbook.
CTRL+SBIFT+PAuE 0P selects the cuiient anu pievious sheet in a
woikbook.
SPACEBAR
In a uialog box, peifoims the action foi the selecteu button, oi selects oi
cleais a check box.
CTRL+SPACEBAR selects an entiie column in a woiksheet.
SBIFT+SPACEBAR selects an entiie iow in a woiksheet.
CTRL+SBIFT+SPACEBAR selects the entiie woiksheet.
If the woiksheet contains uata, CTRL+SBIFT+SPACEBAR selects the cuiient
iegion. Piessing CTRL+SBIFT+SPACEBAR a seconu time selects the cuiient
iegion anu its summaiy iows. Piessing CTRL+SBIFT+SPACEBAR a thiiu time
selects the entiie woiksheet.
42

When an object is selecteu, CTRL+SBIFT+SPACEBAR selects all objects on a
woiksheet.
ALT+SPACEBAR uisplays the ;2<=&2- menu foi the Niciosoft 0ffice Excel
winuow.
TAB
Noves one cell to the iight in a woiksheet.
Noves between unlockeu cells in a piotecteu woiksheet.
Noves to the next option oi option gioup in a uialog box.
SBIFT+TAB moves to the pievious cell in a woiksheet oi the pievious
option in a uialog box.
CTRL+TAB switches to the next tab in uialog box.
CTRL+SBIFT+TAB switches to the pievious tab in a uialog box.

43

[2W =2 I$# .22H-# 1#W$
QIM%=+(&-4=/(%

This puipose of this appenuix is to infoim a stuuent on how to monitoi the countiies that have tioubleu cuiiencies using
uoogle News. uoogle News is a tool that helps save a lot of time when monitoiing the news foi the latest upuates on both the
countiy's cuiiency anu majoi politicalsocial events that have tianspiieu. uoogle News allows you to bookmaik ceitain topics
of inteiest, which allows foi quick, uaily scanning. 0sing multiple keywoius in the seaich give you the best anu most
infoimative seaich possible. 0sing multiple bookmaiks pei countiy ensuies that you maximize the assoitment of news aiticle
you can see, while minimizing the amount of significant aiticles you coulu potentially miss while scanning. Anothei impoitant
thing to uo when auuing bookmaiks is using significant concepts as keywoius such as "Bypeiinflation," "Puichasing Powei,"
anu "Steve Banke," which allows you to stay up to uate with the geneial themes that Piofessoi Banke is inteiesteu in.
In auuition to allowing you to bookmaik specific topics, uoogle News also allows you to auu souices that you woulu like to use
ovei otheis. Foi example, I have auueu majoi news souices such as NYT, WS}, CNN, CNN Inteinational, FT, Reuteis, uulf
Business News, Foibes, Euiasia, EuiasiaNet, 0zbekistan News anu Baily News Egypt. As one can see, asiue fiom majoi news
souices like NYT, WS} anu CNN, it is impoitant to auu local news souices of the countiy being monitoieu such as 0zbekistan
News anu Baily News Egypt. It also helps to incluue iegional news souices like Euiasia anu uulf Business News.
RI #(K =( P32 C((072 62K3
.#==,<H =2 .22H-# 1#W$ W#4$,=#
It is veiy simple to get to the uoogle News website. Fiist, open youi Inteinet biowsei. Then, type in the 0RL,
www.google.com. Aftei this, look towaius the top of the page wheie theie is a tab section. Theie shoulu be a tab alieauy theie
calleu "News." This step can be seen in the pictuie on the next page.

Aftei clicking on "News," you shoulu be biought to a page that shows iecent news aiticles.
44

R22Z3%&Z$ %</ `#@W2&/$ =2 Q// %</ I$#
Fiom heie, you must click on the Settings icon on the iight hanu siue of the scieen. This button says "Peisonalize youi news,"
when you hovei youi mouse ovei it. This step can be seen below with the ieu aiiow showing wheie you must click.

Aftei clicking on the Settings button, a menu will be biought uown, showing News categoiies like "Woilu," "0.S.," "Business,"
"Technology" etc. Foi puiposes of monitoiing tioubleu cuiiencies, it is best to sliue the tiiangles fiom the miuule all the way
to the left, negative (-) siue. This will help minimize the news aiticles that you see that will most likely not ielate to tioubleu
cuiiencies. It will show the piefeience going fiom "Sometimes" to "Raiely." This step is shown in the next 2 pictuies below,
inuicateu by the ieu aiiows.

45


I$,<H ;2*<=&@ )L#',:,' `#@W2&/$

Aftei completing the step above, you must now auu youi own news topics. This can be uone by clicking in the box entitleu,
"Auu any news topic." This pait is impoitant since these will be the keywoius in youi seaich that will ueteimine what news
aiticles come up. Foi each countiy anu theii tioubleu cuiiency, I iecommenu that you fiist auu a countiy's name as a news
topic. Then you shoulu also auu anothei news topic with the countiy's name anu "black maiket exchange iate." Foi example,
you shoulu auu "venezuela" anu "venezuela black maiket exchange iate," as two sepaiate news topics. This ensuies that you
get available news aiticles on both the countiy's cuiiency as well as theii political anu social news. It is impoitant that you uo
this because not only uo you want to know what is happening with the cuiiency in teims of valuation, but you also want to
know ;4A the countiy's cuiiency s valueu at what it is. Thus, by auuing two sepaiate news topics, you will see aiticles on
both.
[+ .2 .(8#%+'/+ +# /#+) +4'+ 'Y+)% )/+)%./: +4) +;# /);2 +#8.-2O +4'+ A#$ ($2+ -<.-5 +4) f?'=)g K$++#/ Y#% A#$% #8+.#/2 +# K) 2'=)1
'/1 24#; $8 #/ +4) <)Y+ 4'/1 2.1) #Y A#$% 2-%))/C [+ .2 '<2# .(8#%+'/+ +# /#+) +4'+ A#$ 24#$<1O <.5) K)Y#%)O (#=) +4) +%.'/:<)2 /)c+
+# +4) /);2 +#8.-2C 34.2 +.()O 4#;)=)%O A#$ 24#$<1 (#=) +4) +%.'/:<)2 '<< +4) ;'A +#;'%12 +4) %.:4+ EhM Y%#( f?#()+.()2g +#
f0<;'A2Cg 34.2 ()'/2 +4'+ +4)2) /);2 +#8.-2 ;.<< '<;'A2 '88)'% #/ A#$% /);2 Y))1C

46


As you can see, aftei saving the two news topics you auueu to youi "Peisonalize uoogle News" section, they will now appeai
on the left-hanu siue of the scieen unuei the column entitleu "News." Now, you aie able to click on eithei "venezuela," oi
"venezuela black maiket exchange iate," anu you will be able to get politicalsocial anu cuiiency-ielateu news aiticles
uiiectly.

In auuition to the countiy's name (venezuela) anu the countiy's name anu "black maiket exchange iate (venezuela black
maiket exchange iate), you shoulu also auu a news topic with the countiy's name anu the name of theii cuiiency. Foi
example, you shoulu auu venezuela bolivai oi Iian iial. This ensuies that you will be maximizing the news aiticles wiitten on
the countiy's cuiiency.

I$,<H .#<#&%- `#@W2&/$

In auuition to using countiy-specific keywoius to monitoi tioubleu cuiiencies, you shoulu also use keywoius such as
"hypeiinflation," "tioubleu cuiiency," "black maiket exchange iate," anu "puichasing powei," which aie all ielevant concepts
in teims of tioubleu cuiienciesinflation.

When using uoogle News foi ieseaich in geneial, it is a goou iuea to also use "Steve Banke" as a keywoiu. This allows you to
keep up to uate with Piofessoi Banke anu the cuiient news that he is featuieu in. In othei woius, you can keep an eye out
when scanning news aiticles foi things Piofessoi Banke may be inteiesteu in.

Foi example, with these countiies, I use the following settings foi both news topics anu news souices:

47


?,-=#&,<H 1#W$ )2*&'#$ I$#/ f(#< )#%&'(,<H

uoogle News gives you even moie options in teims of peisonalizing the news you see by allowing you to show aiticles moie
fiom the souices you choose. Foi example, if you aie seaiching foi news ielateu to venezuela anu its cuiiency, you may want
to auu a local venezuelan news souice such as venezuela Touay oi anothei news souice that pops up that seems useful. Asiue
fiom national news souices, iegional news souices aie also a goou iuea to auu. Foi example, if you aie investigating an Asian
tioubleu cuiiency, auuing a news souice such as EuiasiaNet may give you a bettei seaich. Auuing a news souice is similai to
auuing a news topic, which was pieviously uiscusseu. In oiuei to uo this, you must again click on the Settings button anu go
uown to the column heauing entitleu "Aujust Souices." Beie, you can again lowei the fiequency of souices you uon't want to
use by sliuing the tiiangles all the way to the left. This step is shown in the pictuie below.

To summaiize, in oiuei to optimize uoogle News seaiches thiough filteiing souices, you shoulu auu local, iegional as well as
piominent politicalfinancial souices such as Reuteis, Foibes, New Yoik Times, Financial Times anu any othei souice that
seems helpful.

SIL(%47-3/(%
48


uoogle News is a gieat tool when monitoiing tioubleu cuiiencies. It not only allows you to filtei the news topics that you want
to see thiough bookmaikskeywoius, but it also allows youi to filtei the news souices useu when conuucting the seaiches.
This allows you to ieally specific youi seaich anu finu out as much as you can as it is ielateu to a countiy anu its iespective
cuiiency. 0ltimately, it allows foi quick, uaily scanning of news aiticles.

Research Survival Guide: A Handbook For Surviving Research

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Оригинальное название

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Research Survival Guide: A Handbook For Surviving Research

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

1

"#$#%&'( )&+,+%- .,/#

Вам также может понравиться