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PRESENTATION OVERVIEW DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTIDIMENSIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT OF MINI HYDRO POWER PROJECTS IN SRI LANKA
Presented By Athurugiriya R.M.
Background Aim Objectives Research Methodology Literature Findings Preliminary Questionnaire Survey AHP Questionnaire Survey Conclusions Recommendations for Industry Practitioners Recommendations for Academic Researchers

Supervisor: Dr. Yasangika Sandanayake Department of Building Economics University of Moratuwa October 2013

BACKGROUND
Sri Lankas electricity demand has been growing at an average of 6.8% per year from 1986 to 2003 (Amarawikrama & Hunt, 2007). There is a need for a secure and accessible supply of energy for the sustainability of modern societies (Tiwari &Mishra, 2012) Energy generation by renewable energy sources is a solution for the current energy crisis. As availability of hydro resources within the country and it is renewable energy source, energy can be generated sustainably.

BACKGROUND (Contd.)
feasibility study is an analysis of the potential impact of a proposed project and it is conducted to assist decision makers in determining whether the project or program will implement or not (Urkiaga et al, 2006). Many contemporarily using feasibility factors are there in the world. Currently using feasibility factors are not much comprehensive and cover all the feasibility aspects of a project. Thus, a comprehensive framework for assess the feasibility of MHP projects is needed to assess the project success.

AIM OF THE STUDY

Develop a multidimensional framework for feasibility assessment of mini hydro power projects in Sri Lanka.

OBJECTIVES
The current demand for electricity in Sri Lanka. The sources of the electricity generation in Sri Lanka. The implementation and importance of MHP projects. Investigate the current level of implementation of MHP in Sri Lanka. Identify feasibility assessment perspectives and criteria for MHP projects feasibility. Develop a conceptual hierarchy for feasibility assessment of MHP in Sri Lanka. Multidimensional framework for feasibility assessment of MHP projects in Sri Lanka.

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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Chapter 01 Introduction Literature Review Chapter 02 Literature Review Chapter 03 Methodology Semi structured Questionnaire Survey with Experts Opinions Chapter 04 MHP feasibility assessment conceptual hierarchy Objective 1, Objective 2 & Objective 3

LITERATURE FINDINGS
Many MHP project feasibility factors are currently used over the world.
Perspectives Financial Analysis Criteria Payback Period (PBP) Net Present Value (NPV) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Discounted Cash Flows Cultural aspects

Objective 4

Environmental Analysis Social Analysis Market Analysis

Structured Pair-wise Comparison Questionnaire Survey

Chapter 05 Framework for assess the feasibility of MHP projects in Sri Lanka

Objective 5 Technical Analysis

Chapter 06 Conclusion and Recommendations

Objective 6

Physical Analysis

Demand for the Product Supply for the Product Unit Price Site Location Water Quality Studies Resources Management and Supervisory Personnel Topographical Nature of the Area Proximity

LITERATURE FINDINGS (Contd.)

Many other MHP project feasibility criteria according to the experts recommendations. Theoretical hierarchy for assess the MHP project feasibility 6 feasibility perspectives have been identified with 42 criteria respectively to each perspective.

PRELIMINARY QUESTIONNIRE SURVEY

Survey carried out among 10 MHP industry expertise. Data were analyzed, and concluded the perspectives and criteria for MHP project feasibility assessment and developed the conceptual hierarchy.

CONCEPTUAL HIERARCHY
Potential demand foe electricity Market analysis Current electricity supply Unit price Market competition to invest MHP projects Ease of accessibility to the site location Availability of skilledemployees and technology Technical and Physical Analysis Head1 Hydrology2 Spatial structure3 Security and safety matters Client's budget Return on investment Financial Analysis Framework for Feasibility Evaluation of Mini Hydro Power Projects IRR Total project cost4 Payback period Social disturbances Influence on public infrastructure, public facilities and thecommunity Impact to the culture hertage in close vicinity Confidence and objections of the public community on the project Benifit to the society Damages to waterfall and flora and fauna Availability of water for cultivation and daily use in the catchment area Reinstatement for existing built environment Nature of catchment area (subsoil condition and other) Rainfall during the year in catchment area Regulations on hydro power projects designing Institutional Analysis Government concessions Tax

AHP QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY

Survey was carried out among 30 MHP industry experts within different organizations. Data were analyzed using AHP (Analytical Hierarchical Process) tool. Developed the multidimensional framework with prioritized perspectives and criteria for assess the MHP feasibility in Sri Lanka.

Social analysis

Environmental Analysis

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MULTIDIMENSIONAL FRAMEWORK
Overall Rank
Importance Score Relative Importance (%) Perspectives and Criteria

MULTIDIMENSIONAL FRAMEWORK (Contd.)

Importance Score Relative Importance (%) 6.432 3.616 1.598 0.825 0.642 5.246 2.806 2.123 1.220 0.805 2.688 0.870 0.649 0.494 99.958 Perspectives and Criteria Overall Rank 3 11 18 23 27 7 12 15 20 24 13 22 26 28

Technical and Physical Analysis Head Hydrology Ease of Accessibility to the Site Location Availability of skilled Employees and technology Spatial Structure Security and Safety Matters Environmental Analysis Rainfall During the Year in Catchment Area Nature of Catchment area (Subsoil Condition) Availability of water for Villagers Damages to the waterfall and Flora and Fauna Reinstatement for Existing Built Environment Institutional Analysis Regulations on hydro power project designing Government concessions Tax

0.446 0.365 0.324 0.141 0.085 0.049 0.037 0.190 0.287 0.285 0.254 0.098 0.076 0.063 0.693 0.192 0.115 4.366 1.210 0.725 9 21 25 5.453 5.415 4.826 1.862 1.444 5 6 8 16 19 16.279 14.450 6.289 3.791 2.185 1.650 1 2 4 10 14 17

Financial Analysis Return on Investment Total Project Cost IRR Client's Budget Payback Period Social analysis Influence on Public Infrastructure, Public Facilities and the Community Social Disturbances Benefit to the Society Impact to the culture heritage in Close Vicinity Confidence and Objections of the Public Community on the Project Market analysis Unit Price Current Electricity Supply Potential Demand for Electricity Market Competition to invest MHP Project Total

0.131 0.491 0.276 0.122 0.063 0.049 0.122 0.430 0.230 0.174 0.100 0.066 0.047 0.572 0.185 0.138 0.105

CONCLUSIONS
Project feasibility assessment is the method to identify the level of feasibility of a particular project. Through this research 6 MHP feasibility perspectives and 28 criteria were finalized. Multidimensional framework for assess the MHP projects feasibility in Sri Lanka, was developed.

RECOMMENDATIONS
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR INDUSTRY PRACTITIONERS framework provide a help to comprehensive and precise feasibility assessment. Can identify level of significant of perspectives and criteria. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACADEMIC RESEARCHERS Go for case study research method. Increase the data collection sample. Cost model for MHP projects cost implications.

REFERENCES
Amarawickrama, H., & Hunt, L. (2007). Lanka: A Time series Analysis. Economics. University of Surrey,. http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/380521/1/SE Electricity Demand for Sri Department of Retrieved from EDS118.pdf.

Tiwari, G., & Mishra, R. (2012). Advance Renewable Energy Sources (1st ed.). Boston, USA: RSC Publishing. Urkiaga, A., Fuentis, L. D., Bis, B., Chiru, F., Bodo, B., Hernandez, F., & Wintgens, T. (2006). Methodologies for feasibility studies related to wastewater reclamation and reuse projects. Desalination, 187(1-3), 263-269.

Thank You

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Experts Recommendations
Perspectives Financial Analysis Criteria Project Return Clents Budget Maintenance Cost Project Cost Another Cost Implications Cost of Land Cost of Resettlement of Famillies Damages to Floara and Fauna Damages to waterfalls and Fountainns Wastage of Water Water Pollution Availability of Water for People after diverting the canal Effect to the Built Environment Nature of Catchment Area (subsoil Condition and other) Rainfall during the year in catchment area Environmetntal friendly design

SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENTS

Environmental Analysis

Market Analysis

Market competition Market share for electricity

Experts Recommendations (Contd.)

Perspectives Social Analysis Criteria Social Disturbances Influnce on Public Infrastructure Effect to the Public Facilities Effect to the Public Community Objections by Public Community Confidence on the Project by Public Community Accessibility to the Site Location Head Technology Hydrology Secuirty Safety Aesthetice Appearance Layout of Design Elements Topographical Nature of the Area Proximity Regulations on hydro power projects designing Government Concessions Tax Approvals by authorities

Theoretical Hierarchy
Perspectives/ Aspects Market Analysis Potential demand for electricity Current electricity supply Unit price Market competition to invest mini hydro power projects Market share for electricity out of wind, solar and coal energy Criteria

Technical and Physical Analysis

Ease of accessibility to the site location Availability of skilled employees Availability of technology Height from forebay tank to power house (Head) Available volume of water in water channel (Hydrology) Aesthetic appearance, environmental friendly design and layout of design elements of the project (Spatial structure) Security and safety matters

Technical Analysis

Financial Analysis

Clients budget Return on investment Project cost IRR Payback period Recurrent cost Maintenance cost Cost of land acquisition and resettlement of families

Physical Analysis Institutional Analysis

Theoretical Hierarchy (Contd.)

Perspectives/ Aspects Social Analysis Social disturbances Influence on public infrastructure Impact to the culture heritage in close vicinity Impact on accessibility to public facilities Influence to the public community Confidence of the public community on the project Objections of the public community on the project Benefit to the society Environmental Analysis Damages to flora and fauna Damages to waterfalls and fountains Wastage of water Water pollution Availability of water for cultivation and daily use in the catchment area or not Criteria

Conceptual Hierarchy

Reinstatement for existing built environments Aesthetic appearance of the project Nature of catchment area (subsoil condition and other) Rainfall during the year in catchment area Environmental friendly design of the project Institutional Analysis Regulations on hydro power projects designing Government concessions Tax Ease of getting approvals from local authorities

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Conceptual Hierarchy (Contd.)

Conceptual Hierarchy (Contd.)

Conceptual Hierarchy (Contd.)

Conceptual Hierarchy (Contd.)

Conceptual Hierarchy (Contd.)