STUART SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Econometric Analysis
Wal-Mart Stores
Rohan S. Patil
2/16/2008
Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

Wal-Mart: Net Monthly Sales

Econometric Analysis
MSF 562

Abstract

This report contains a description of econometric analyses of net monthly sales of Wal-
Mart Stores, Inc. The analyses are focused on:

 Macroeconomic factors indicating the state of the overall economy

 Various macro-economic factors affecting the production costs
 The overall consumer sentiment and disposable income
 Miscellaneous factors affecting sales ( e.g. retail gas price)

I begin with the description of the business of Wal-Mart and their various internal
segments. In part II, I will explain all the macro-economic indicators and their intuitive
effects on the net sales of a company in the retail segment.
Part III explains the initial stages of the analyses wherein I shall de-trend the time-series
data and then remove the seasonality effects.
Part IV discusses the construction of the econometric model and tests of significance.
The advanced analysis is presented in part V wherein the model will be tested for
possible autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity.
In part VI, the concluding remarks, I shall elaborate on the pattern in the monthly net
sales of Wal-Mart as explained by all the significant independent variables. I have
appended an appendix at the very end of the report which supports the analyses with
graphs, tables and also shows all the important statistics.

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Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

I. Introduction Wal-Mart Stores

NYSE Code: WMT
Sector: Variety Stores
Business Description:
Wal-Mart is the world’s largest general merchandise retailer, operating nearly 6,800
stores worldwide. It is the world's largest public corporation by revenue, according to the
2007, Fortune Global 500.
Wal-Mart has three main divisions as far as the revenues are concerned. They are Wal-
Mart stores, Sam’s club and international sales. Wal-Mart also deals with online product
selling through the Internet which is aggregated into three divisions mentioned above.
Among these business divisions, Wal-Mart Stores Divisio n, U.S. is Wal-Mart's largest
business subsidiary, accounting for 67.2% of net sales for financial year 2006. It consists
of three retail formats that have become commonplace in the United States: Discount
Stores, Supercenters, and Neighborhood Markets.
Wal-Mart Discount Stores are discount department stores which carry general
merchandise and a selection of food. Many of these stores also have a garden center, a
pharmacy, Tire & Lube Express, optical center, one-hour photo processing lab, portrait
studio, and a fast food outlet. Some also sell gasoline.
Wal-Mart Supercenters are hypermarkets with an average size of about 197,000 square
feet. These stock everything a Wal-Mart Discount Store does, and also include a full-
service supermarket, including meat and poultry, baked goods, frozen foods, dairy
products, garden produce, and fresh seafood. Many Wal-Mart Supercenters also have a
garden center, pet shop, pharmacy, Tire & Lube Express, optical center, one-hour photo
processing lab, portrait studio, and numerous alcove shops, such as cellular phone stores,
hair and nail salons, video rental stores, local bank branches, and fast food outlets. Some
also sell gasoline.
Wal-Mart Neighborhood Markets are grocery stores. They offer variety of products,
including full lines of groceries, pharmaceuticals, health and beauty aids, photo
developing services, and a limited selection of general merchandise.
Sam's Club is a chain of warehouse clubs which sell groceries and general merchandise
in large quantities. Sam's has found a niche market in recent years as a supplier to small
businesses. According to Wal-Mart's 2007 Annual Report, Sam's Club's annual sales
were $42 billion, or 12.1% of Wal-Mart's total sales.
Wal-Mart's internat ional operations currently comprise 2,980 stores in 14 countries
outside the United States. According to Wal-Mart's 2006 Annual Report, the International
division accounted for about 20.1% of sales. There are wholly-owned operations in
Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Puerto Rico (although PR is part of the US, the company's
operations there are managed through its international division), and the UK. With 1.8
million employees worldwide, the company is the largest private employer in the US and
Mexico, and one of the largest in Canada.

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Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

II. Macroeconomic and other Indicators (Independent variables)

1. Consumer Price Index (CPI):

As a proxy for inflation CPI is used to analyze the effects of inflation in the
overall economy on the net sales.
As Wal-Mart sells a variety of products ranging from food to fuel, it is interesting
to analyze how the sales of essential and non-essential items are affected by
inflation.
Since the prices of essential items such as food and energy are much more volatile
compared to the other items I used several indicators such as CPI – for all items,
all but food, only food, food and energy, all but food and energy.
2. Unemployment Rate:
Keynesian economics emphasizes unemployment resulting from insufficient
effective demand for goods and service in the economy (cyclical unemployment).
Thus, this variable has been used as a proxy for the state of the overall economy.
3. Consumer Sentiment Index:
(This is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index)
CSI is a closely watched barometer of where the economy might be headed next.
It is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers
are expressing through their activities of savings and spending. The main Index of
Consumer Sentiment is based on the results of two subset indices: the Index of
Current Economic Conditions, which explores consumers’ thinking about their
current finances and buying plans, and the Index of Consumer Expectations,
which is designed to gauge consumers’ outlook over the coming one-and five-
year periods.
4. Gasoline Prices:
I have used the monthly prices of gasoline available to retail customers. Most of
the customers of Wal-Mart travel to the stores by a car. Thus, I think it is
interesting to analyze the relationship between gasoline prices and sales.
5. Consumer Credit Outstanding
Consumer debt is consumer credit which is outstanding. In macroeconomic terms,
it is debt which is used to fund consumption rather than investment.
The permanent income hypothesis suggests that consumers take debt to smooth
consumption throughout their lives, borrowing to finance expenditures earlier in
their lives and paying down debt during higher-earning periods. Thus the amount
of debt in the economy may affect retail sales.

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Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

Dummy explanatory variables:

1. Dummy for December Sales:

After observing the data we find that the December sales are substantially higher
than the rest of the months. A plausible reason for this seasonal effect could be the
holiday season.
In order to offset this effect, a dummy variable has been used which captures the
increased sales due to holiday spending.
2. Dummy for November Sales:
The data on the November sales for the years 1996-2006 were considerably
higher than other months even though it was reported only for four weeks. Thus
we add a dummy variable for the sales in November.
3. Dummy for number of weeks (as reported):
This dummy variable is introduced in order to remove the effect of the number of
weeks over which the sales have been reported by the company.
The company publishes the data for monthly sales in the following pattern: 4,4,5 -
4,4,5 - 4,4,5 -4,4,5. These are the number of weeks included in the monthly sales.
This dummy variable has no economic significance and thus we will not discuss
this further.

Following is the list of all the variables with their names and short-forms:
Independent Variables.*
Short-
Form Name
1 x1 Consumer Sentiment Index
2 x2 CPI- All
3 x3 CPI – All but food
4 x4 CPI- All but food energy
5 x5 CPI- All but energy
6 x6 CPI for food only
7 x7 Consumer(individual) loans-non-revolvingOutstanding
8 x8 Consumer credit( revolving) Outstanding
9 x9 Unemployment
10 x10 PPI- Finished Consumer Goods
11 x11 PPI- Fuels and Power
12 x12 PPI- Finished Consumer Foods
13 x13 Motor Gasoline Retail Prices, U.S. City Average
14 x14 Disposable Income
15 dummy1 Number of weeks ( 1 = 5 weeks, 0 = 4 weeks)
16 dummy2 December sales
17 dummy3 November sales

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Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

III. De-trending, Seasonality and Co-linearity:

In this section, we will start of with de-trending of the dependent and independent
variables. After this I adjusted the log (sales) for seasonality using the dummy
variables for the month of November and December. Additionally I added a dummy
for number of weeks. All my independent variables (macro-economic indicators) are
adjusted for seasonality.
Following is the regression that I carried out to de-trend y.
y   0  1timeline  u … Reg.1
*Refer appendix for details of this regression.
I obtained following equation after this regression:
y  2.126634  0.009988timeline  u
(0.0308) (0.000368)
n = 142, R 2 = 83.84%
We find out the residuals from the above regression (i.e. log( sales ) using the
following equation:
y  y  yˆ 1
These residuals will be used for the purpose of our analysis in place of log (sales).
Similarly, all the independent variables were de-trended and henceforth the residuals
of these regressions will be used for the furtherance of the analysis.
Now let us turn to the adjustments for the seasonality in the net sales of Wal-Mart.
From the residual plot of regression 1 *, we note that the net sales are substantially
higher in November and December of each year. In order to partial out this effect I
used two dummies (one for each month).
Following is the equation for removing seasonality:
y   0  1dummy1   2 dummy2   3 dummy3  u … Reg.2
I obtained the following equation after this regression:
y  -0.11455  0.228121 dummy1  0.326261 dummy2  0.126337dummy3  u
(0.0084) (0.0153) (0.025511) (0.023636)
n = 142, R 2 = 82.27%

We use the residuals of this regression for further analysis:

y  y  y̂

1. ŷ is the predicted value of y by the equation. y is log (sales) after de-trending and y is after
de-seasonality.
* Refer the appendix for the plot.

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Proceeding with the analysis of the data, we check all probable independent variables
for a possible co-linearity. In case two variables are found to be highly collinear then
one of them is rejected.

After calculating the correlation between the independent variables I found the
following:
1. Variables x2 and x3 are almost the same.
2. Variable x2 is highly correlated with variables x10, x11 and x13.
3. Variable x4 is highly correlated with variable x5.
4. Variable x12 is highly correlated with variable x6.
5. Variables x10 and x13 are also correlated.
*Refer appendix for the entire correlation matrix.
Thus we reject variables x3, x4, x5, x10, x11 and x13.

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IV. Econometric Model:

Following is the chart of y plotted against time:

log(sales)
After removing the seasonality
0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
-0.05

-0.1

-0.15

-0.2

-0.25

There is a definite change in the slope of this graph after about 70 samples. The most
interesting thing here is sample 69 represents the month of September 2001. Thus, I
selected this point as my crossover point and performed a piece-wise linear
regression by including a binary variable as well as its interaction terms with all the
independent variables.

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Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

Initial econometric model is setup as follows:

y   0   0 dummy  1 x1   2 x2   6 x6   7 x7   8 x8   9 x9  12 x12  13 x13  14 x14

 1dummy * (1 x1   2 x2   6 x6   7 x7   8 x8   9 x9  12 x12  13 x13  14 x14 )  u

… Reg.3

I found following variables to be significant (and on the verge of significance):

Variable β t-Stat
1 x6 -0.01252 -1.65666
2 x7 -0.00145 -3.45889
3 x8 0.00109 2.988242
4 x9 -0.02523 -1.43381
5 dummy*x7 -0.00024756 -1.77712
6 dummy*x12 2.27462E-06 2.2746675
* Refer appendix for further details.

Then, I ran the regression with only significant factors included in the model.

y   0   6 x6   7 x7   8 x8   9 x9  1  7 dummy * x7  1 12dummy  u … Reg.4

Following are the significant betas and their t-stats.

Variable β t-Stat
1 x7 -0.0011185 -3.95484
2 x8 0.001177037 4.170627
3 x9 -0.04566579 -3.17542
4 dummy*x7 -0.00018785 -2.26428
5 dummy* x12 9.86155E-07 1.895653
We get an adjusted R2 of 22. 18 %.

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V. Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation:

I conducted the Breusch-Pagan test on the residuals from the regression 4 to
check for the existence of heteroskedasticity in the residuals.

Breusch-Pagan test:

Model: uˆ 2   0   6 x6   7 x7   8 x8   9 x9  1  7 dummy * x7  1 12dummy  v

… Reg.5
* Refer appendix for details.
Null hypothesis:
H0 : βi = 0 … for all i
Alternate Hypothesis:
H1 : βi ≠ 0 … for all i

The joint significant of all the β’s is 1.145223. Thus, we fail to reject the null
hypothesis.
Breusch- Pagan test does not indicate presence of heteroskedasticity. Thus, in order to
further analyze the relationship of u with x’s I performed the White Test.

White Test:

Model: u 2   0  1 y   2 y2  v …Reg.6

* Refer appendix for details.
Null hypothesis:
H0 : βi = 0 … i  [1, ]
Alternate Hypothesis:
H1 : βi ≠ 0 … i  [1, ]

The joint significant of all the β’s is 1.213656. Thus, we fail to reject the null
hypothesis.Thus, after both these tests fail to identify I assumed that the
heteroskedasticity is absent.

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Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

Now we shall test for the auto correlation in these residuals by running the following
regression:
ut   0  1ut 1  v …Reg.7

Null hypothesis:
H0 : β1 = 0 … i  [1, ]
Alternate Hypothesis:
H1 : βi ≠ 0 … i  [1, ]

We the following equation:

ut  -0.00056  0.038965ut 1  v
(0.0039) (0.0836)
n = 140, R 2 = -0.558 %

The t- stat of β1 is 0.466. Thus, it is not statistically significant from zero.

Thus, the residual are serially uncorrelated.

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VI. Concluding Remarks:

After the econometric analysis I got the following model:

y   0   6 x6   7 x7   8 x8   9 x9  1  7 dummy * x7  1 12dummy  u

log (sales) -d-s* =

0.22183 - 0.001118 x7  0.00118 x8 - 0.0457 x9 - 0.000188 dummy * x7  9.861E - 07dummy * x12  u

X7 Consumer loans Outstanding (individual-non-revolving)

X8 Consumer credit( revolving) Outstanding
X9 Unemployment
X12 PPI- Finished Consumer Foods

n= 142, R 2 = 22.134%

Before September, 2001:

log (sales) –d-s = 0.22183 - 0.0011185 x7  0.001177 x8 - 0.04566 x9  u

After September, 2001:

log (sales) –d-s =

0.22183 - 0.00130635x7  0.001177 x8 - 0.04566 x9  9.86155E - 07 * x12  u

Interpretation of betas:

The beta corresponding to Consumer loans outstanding (individual non-revolving) is -

0.0011185. This goes to show that as the consumer debt (non-revolving) in the
economy increases, ceteris paribus, the net effect on Wal-Mart sales is negative. It
concurs with the fact that as people take on more and more debt their spending
capacity goes down resulting in lower sales.

It is interesting to note that the effect of revolving credit is exactly opposite. When the
revolving credit goes up, ceteris paribus, the sales also go up. Most of the people do
pay by credit card and thus defer the payment by some time. If the revolving credit is
going down, that means people are struggling to pay their last months credit. Thus,
the sales for that particular month would be low.

* log (sales)-d-s is the log(sales) after de-trending and removing the seasonality.

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Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

Unemployment rate has a negative impact on the net sales. This makes sense because
the unemployment rate is low when the economy as a whole is doing good and it
increases during recessions. Thus intuitively the sign of this beta should be negative.
One more interesting thing to note is, post- September, 2001 the Producer’s Price
Index for finished consumer food is significant.

After analyzing the net sales of Wal-Mart I found the following factors to be
significant: 1. Consumer Loans (revolving and non-revolving credit)
2. Unemployment
3. Producer’s Price Index

With the help of these parameters, my econometric model could explain 22% of the
variations in the net-sales of Wal-Mart.

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Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

VII. Further Studies:

After regressing log (sales) with respect to time and time2, I found a definite cycle of
sales as shown in the following graph.

log(sales) regressed against t and t2

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
-0.05

-0.1

-0.15

-0.2

This pattern needs further attention. In my opinion it would not be appropriate to use
piecewise linear regression four times on this graph.

Also, I have not considered the impact of the foreign exchange rate on the net sales.
In order to do that, one needs to analyze their operations in foreign markets in detail.
The data regarding this was not available to me.

Also, the store has a strategy of reducing there Wal-Mart stores and increasing the
number of Supercenters over last 10 years. The reasons behind this trend are
unknown. It is clear that this has a significant impact on the sales.

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 Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

VIII. Appendix:
Part II.

Following table shows the sources of data used in the econometric model:

Name Source
Consumer Sentiment Index Survey Research Center: University of Michigan*
CPI- All U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics*
CPI – All but food U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics*
CPI- All but food energy U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics*
CPI- All but energy U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics*
CPI for food only U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics*
Consumer(individual) loans-non-revolving Outstanding Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System1
Consumer credit( revolving) Outstanding Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System1
Unemployment U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics*
PPI- Finished Consumer Goods U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics*
PPI- Fuels and Power U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics*
PPI- Finished Consumer Foods U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics*
Motor Gasoline Retail Prices Energy Info. Administration**
Disposable Income Bureau of Economic Analysis
Net Sales of Wal-Mart www.walmartfacts.com

Part III:
Regression 1
Summary Output for regression 1:

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9163
R Square 0.8396
Adjusted R Square 0.8384
Standard Error 0.1824
Observations 143.0000

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 1.0000 24.5447 24.5447
Residual 141.0000 4.6907 0.0333
Total 142.0000 29.2354

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 2.1266 0.0308 68.9772
X Variable 1 0.0100 0.0004 27.1625

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Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

Following chart shows the residuals of the above equation plotted against time:

De-trending of log(sales)

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

We can clearly see the seasonality in the sales.

Regression 2
Following is the summary output for regression 2:

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9091
R Square 0.8264
Adjusted R Square 0.8227
Standard Error 0.0765
Observations 143.0000

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 3.0000 3.8765 1.2922 220.6083
Residual 139.0000 0.8142 0.0059
Total 142.0000 4.6907

Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value
-
Intercept -0.1146 0.0084 13.6362 0.0000
X Variable 1 0.2281 0.0153 14.9359 0.0000
X Variable 2 0.3263 0.0255 12.7890 0.0000
X Variable 3 0.1263 0.0236 5.3450 0.0000

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 Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

Following chart shows the residuals of the above equation plotted against time:

log(sales)
After removing the seasonality
0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
-0.05

-0.1

-0.15

-0.2

-0.25

Correlation Matrix of independent variables

x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x10 x11 x12 x13 x14

x1 100% -32% -34% -40% -37% -12% -25% -63% -54% -21% -22% -10% -17% 6%
x2 -32% 100% 100% 45% 65% 78% 70% -15% -28% 94% 88% 68% 88% 79%
x3 -34% 100% 100% 45% 63% 72% 66% -14% -28% 93% 88% 63% 88% 76%
x4 -40% 45% 45% 100% 93% 35% 3% 18% -1% 20% 5% 9% 17% 35%
x5 -37% 65% 63% 93% 100% 66% 30% 7% -9% 45% 26% 40% 39% 57%
x6 -12% 78% 72% 35% 66% 100% 74% -20% -20% 79% 59% 88% 69% 77%
x7 -25% 70% 66% 3% 30% 74% 100% 7% 13% 77% 68% 81% 72% 58%
x8 -63% -15% -14% 18% 7% -20% 7% 100% 79% -21% -15% -13% -23% -39%
x9 -54% -28% -28% -1% -9% -20% 13% 79% 100% -31% -30% -8% -30% -44%
x10 -21% 94% 93% 20% 45% 79% 77% -21% -31% 100% 94% 79% 92% 78%
x11 -22% 88% 88% 5% 26% 59% 68% -15% -30% 94% 100% 61% 89% 64%
x12 -10% 68% 63% 9% 40% 88% 81% -13% -8% 79% 61% 100% 64% 69%
x13 -17% 88% 88% 17% 39% 69% 72% -23% -30% 92% 89% 64% 100% 70%
x14 6% 79% 76% 35% 57% 77% 58% -39% -44% 78% 64% 69% 70% 100%

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Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

Part IV:
Regression 3

Following is the summary output of the regression 3.

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.55637629
R Square 0.30955458
Adjusted R
Square 0.22187897
Standard Error 0.04871806
Observations 143

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 16 0.134078 0.00838 3.530681 3.12103E-05
Residual 126 0.299055 0.002373
Total 142 0.433133

Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 0.12715894 0.086435 1.471144 0.143745
X Variable 1 0.00017445 0.001213 0.14376 0.88592
X Variable 2 0.01051257 0.007505 1.400746 0.163748
-
X Variable 3 0.01251542 0.007555 -1.65666 0.100076
-
X Variable 4 0.00144774 0.000419 -3.45889 0.000741
X Variable 5 0.00108883 0.000364 2.988242 0.003374
X Variable 6 -0.0252253 0.017593 -1.43381 0.154105
X Variable 7 0.00172228 0.003178 0.541975 0.588793
X Variable 8 8.1943E-05 8.25E-05 0.993048 0.32259
X Variable 9 0.00218985 0.00184 1.190241 0.23619
-
X Variable 10 0.00136803 0.001372 -0.99728 0.320541
-
X Variable 11 0.00132252 0.001343 -0.98508 0.326474
-
X Variable 12 0.00024756 0.000139 -1.77712 0.077961
X Variable 13 9.2486E-05 7.89E-05 1.172521 0.2432
-1.7361E-
X Variable 14 05 1.49E-05 -1.1655 0.246019
X Variable 15 2.2746E-06 1E-06 2.274668 0.024616
X Variable 16 1.7078E-08 1.23E-08 1.385531 0.168338

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Regression 4
Following is the summary output of the regression 4.

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.520120024
R Square 0.270524839
Adjusted R
Square 0.226974083
Standard Error 0.048558299
Observations 143

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
0.01464 6.21171397 8.11294E-
Regression 8 0.117173219 7 7 07
0.00235
Residual 134 0.31595972 8
Total 142 0.433132939

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

3.19331 0.00175319
Intercept 0.227716535 0.071310393 5 8
0.74317 0.45867939
X Variable 1 0.00421282 0.005668712 1 2
0.30717358
X Variable 2 -0.005142913 0.005017097 -1.02508 3
0.00012348
X Variable 3 -0.0011185 0.000282818 -3.95484 4
4.17062 5.42361E-
X Variable 4 0.001177037 0.000282221 7 05
X Variable 5 -0.045665729 0.014381006 -3.17542 0.00185683
0.02516273
X Variable 6 -0.000187854 8.29642E-05 -2.26428 6
1.89565 0.06015950
X Variable 7 9.86155E-07 5.20219E-07 3 5
0.26022 0.79508657
X Variable 8 2.24494E-09 8.62679E-09 9 6

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Part V:

Breusch-Pagan test:

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.252974374
R Square 0.063996034
Adjusted R
Square 0.0081152
Standard Error 0.004096669
Observations 143

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 8 0.00015376 1.92199E-05 1.145223322 0.337404081
Residual 134 0.002248882 1.67827E-05
Total 142 0.002402641

Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 0.008096904 0.006016173 1.345856368 0.180621491
- -
X Variable 1 0.000369668 0.000478247 0.772965274 0.440904263
- -
X Variable 2 0.000216165 0.000423272 0.510699851 0.610401571
-7.11742E- -
X Variable 3 07 2.38602E-05 0.029829667 0.976247281
X Variable 4 0 2.38098E-05 0 1
- -
X Variable 5 0.001188953 0.001213268 0.979959067 0.328872274
X Variable 6 0 6.99936E-06 0 1
X Variable 7 0 4.38888E-08 0 1
X Variable 8 0 7.27808E-10 0 1

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Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

White Test:

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.039348536
R Square 0.001548307
Adjusted R Square -0.00558349
Standard Error 0.04699267
Observations 142

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 1 0.000479422 0.000479422 0.21709916 0.641983254
Residual 140 0.309163549 0.002208311
Total 141 0.309642972

Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value
- -
Intercept 0.000561449 0.003943545 0.142371653 0.88699114
X Variable 1 0.038964542 0.083625843 0.465939009 0.641983254

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Wal-Mart Sales Econometric Analysis MSF 562

References:
1. Wooldridge J. M. , (2006), Introductory Econometrics –3rd Edition

2. Baumohl B., (2007), The secrets of economic indicators –– 2nd Edition

3. Morey E. (2003), Econ 6818: Econometric Methods and Applications. Retrieved:

February 15, 2008, from University of Colorado.
Website: http://www.colorado.edu/Economics/morey/6818/student/6818proj.html

4. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Retrieved: February 15 th, 2008.

Website: http://www.bea.gov/

5. Federal Research Economic Data. Retrieved: January 30th, 2008.

Website: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

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