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http://indicus.net/Newsletter/Emerging_Economy.aspx
The Emerging
Economy
– Monthly Newsletter from
Indicus Analytics
3rd July 2009
Economic Growth
Inflation
Interest Rates
10 year benchmark gilt yields have been rising since the
end of April as the pressure of higher borrowings impacted
the market.
Government borrowing increased from the planned Rs.
241,000 crore for H1 2009-10, to Rs. 259,000 crore.
Going forward, the Budget on July 6th will determine
trends as the exact size of disinvestments and borrowings
for the year will be set out.
On the interest rate front, the RBI has been caught by
mixed signals coming in on the inflation and growth front
- CPI still registering high inflation, WPI showing low
levels but an uptrend, manufacturing off the negative path
but slow growth forecast ahead.
A rate cut by the RBI of 25-50 basis points in the July end
review could well signal the end to the rate cut cycle.
Exchange Rates